Looks like Schoen did a good job
Said on @SNYtv to wait for fine details before reacting to Daniel Jones' contract with the #Giants.
Here's why, per sources:
4-year deal came with $36m signing bonus. Base salaries are $9.5m (23), $36.5m (24), $30m (25) & $46.5m (26).
The #Giants guaranteed his entire '23 and '24 base salaries. $12m of Jones' $30m '25 base becomes GTD if he's on roster 5th day of 2025 league year, while $12m is GTD for injury at signing.
There are no guarnatees for the final year ($46.5m).
Jones' cap hits are as follows:
2023: $18.5m
2024: $45.5m
2025: $39.5m
2026: $55.5m
Giants *can* get out of contract after 2024 if they were to release Jones before the 5th day of the 2025 league year (and before the $12m vests). More likely: It's a 3-year deal.
Cut after '25: $46.5 save, $9m dead.
AAV for 3 years: $37.3m (NYG wanted $35-$37) — 10th in NFL
The cap hits of $45.5m and $39.5m in 2024 & 2025 seem crazy, yes. However something you need to remember that Joe Schoen knows:
There will be another large cap jump in 2024, then a massive one in 2025 as TV deals hit books. What might look crazy now will not feel crazy then.
The major benefit to this contract for the #Giants is Jones' third year (2025).
If he plays how they expect him to, that $30m base/$39.5m cap hit gives #NYG SIGNFICANT fianancial flexbility a year before they would look to extend him again.
It's a good deal — really good deal
LINK - (
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The most notable element is the trigger for guarantees for year three happen right before the season. The big dogs get that trigger the year before.
For instance Murray's 2025 roster bonus and salary is guaranteed before the 2024 season.
Jones doesn't get any 2025 money guaranteed until right before 2025, which makes it much easier to cut him.
The three year version is 3/104M at a 35 AAV.
The two year version is 2/82 at a 41M AAV.
Team Jones gets a C+ for this deal.
As far as Jones other than a few fanatics here he's got to make a big leap again. Granted they need to give him at least a legit 1 WR to throw to and the OL needs to take another step. This season was nice but one season is not a huge data point to warrant the cash. He makes that step years 3 and 4 won't be his last on the Giants and they can extend
It really is a win all around. Jones gets a crapload of guaranteed $$$ up front, and the Giants can get out of the contract after 2 years without a crazy amount of pain with the salary cap exploding for 2025 and 2026. The only real pain in this contract is Jones' cap number (45 million) in 2024
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In comment 16057389 Ten Ton Hammer said:
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On who lost. A deal was reached, so everyone is satisfied.
larry david was right that a good compromise is when nobody is satisfied.
lol, that is another way of looking at it. But if the Giants didn't want it, they wouldn't have offered it, and if Jones didn't want it, he wouldn't have signed. Nobody lost. The Giants got a contract that protects them and gives them a content QB. Jones got 92m and bragging rights on a gimmicky "4" number AAV.
i agree it was a fair/logical deal for both sides. jones didnt break any records and the giants didnt get any kind of steal. both sides did honest work for fair wages. a few interesting wrinkles within the deal but nothing either side won at the other's expense.
i give schoen a lot of credit on this one, he not only got it executed but i think he was more aggressive than we've seen with his other moves to date. maybe daboll loves jones and that was his influence, but regardless they got a deal done cleanly in a non-clean environment.
If he plays at the same level as last year he will get another 3.5M in incentives and escalators. That takes the AAV from 37.5 to 41. Play a little better and it will go up to 44.5M. 44.5 is Mahomes money and he doesn't have to win anything. I wish it was all tied to reaching, winning, and being MVP of the Superbowl. Because in the end, that is all that really matters.
It is possible to go out there and compile some numbers to ensure that he gets those incentives, without really playing winning football.
So while the base contract is better than I thought it would be... Some of the information I had was wrong about the 12M guaranteed salary in the 3rd year. The info I saw was that that was additional gtd bonus. The overall contract with the incentives is still an overpay.
i dont think anyone said that's a positive for him - if he's cut in 2 years that's bad for him. but if he played that badly without this deal it undeniably would have been worse for him even if he got tagged twice - which isn't even close to his worst case scenario, which would be playing badly or getting injured before the 2nd tag.
he dramatically raised his floor with this deal and it remains to be seen how much he capped his upside. if he maxes out his performance and gets 35m in incentives the overall AAV raises to almost 49m which would be the 2nd highest AAV in football right now behind just rodgers.
we honestly probably arent factoring the incentives enough because if his base case of playing the way he did last year, with the 15 passing tds, means he'd have earned 1/3 of his incentives as pft reports below, that alone boosts the AAV to 43m. paraphrasing what schoen said today "if this is his floor, im excited to see where the ceiling is". well with any improvements who knows where the real AAV could end up? he has 70m of total incentives and he only has to hit half of them to max out the 35m and get to 49m AAV.
Jones will earn $1 million in incentives and a $1 million escalator in each year for being a top-15 quarterback. He can earn another $1.5 million in incentives and a $1.5 million escalator in each year for being a top-10 quarterback. He can earn another $1.5 million of incentives and a $1.5 million escalator in each year for being a top-five quarterback. That’s $4 million in incentives and $4 million in escalators if he’s a top-five quarterback in any given season.
He also has playoff incentives that add up to $5 million in incentives and $5 million in escalators.
As it was explained to PFT, if Jones performs in 2023 as he did in 2022, he will earn another $1.75 million in 2023 incentives and another $1.75 million in 2024 escalators. At that same level over the life of the contract, he’ll earn $12.25 million of the available $35 million, pushing the total value to $172.25 million — an annual average of $43.06 million.
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If Jones gets cut after 2 years, on no universe is that a positive for him.
i dont think anyone said that's a positive for him - if he's cut in 2 years that's bad for him. but if he played that badly without this deal it undeniably would have been worse for him even if he got tagged twice - which isn't even close to his worst case scenario, which would be playing badly or getting injured before the 2nd tag.
he dramatically raised his floor with this deal and it remains to be seen how much he capped his upside. if he maxes out his performance and gets 35m in incentives the overall AAV raises to almost 49m which would be the 2nd highest AAV in football right now behind just rodgers.
we honestly probably arent factoring the incentives enough because if his base case of playing the way he did last year, with the 15 passing tds, means he'd have earned 1/3 of his incentives as pft reports below, that alone boosts the AAV to 43m. paraphrasing what schoen said today "if this is his floor, im excited to see where the ceiling is". well with any improvements who knows where the real AAV could end up? he has 70m of total incentives and he only has to hit half of them to max out the 35m and get to 49m AAV.
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The contract also includes $70 million in available incentives, with a maximum payout of $35 million.
Jones will earn $1 million in incentives and a $1 million escalator in each year for being a top-15 quarterback. He can earn another $1.5 million in incentives and a $1.5 million escalator in each year for being a top-10 quarterback. He can earn another $1.5 million of incentives and a $1.5 million escalator in each year for being a top-five quarterback. That’s $4 million in incentives and $4 million in escalators if he’s a top-five quarterback in any given season.
He also has playoff incentives that add up to $5 million in incentives and $5 million in escalators.
As it was explained to PFT, if Jones performs in 2023 as he did in 2022, he will earn another $1.75 million in 2023 incentives and another $1.75 million in 2024 escalators. At that same level over the life of the contract, he’ll earn $12.25 million of the available $35 million, pushing the total value to $172.25 million — an annual average of $43.06 million.
Do we know what the incentives are yet?
the fact that there are 70m worth of incentives in there (with a max out at 35m) means they are probably wide-ranging and there are a lot of different ways he can hit them (individual stats, team success, etc).
the fact that there are 70m worth of incentives in there (with a max out at 35m) means they are probably wide-ranging and there are a lot of different ways he can hit them (individual stats, team success, etc).
thanks for digging in on this....
How would you grade this deal from The Giants POV?
solid B+/A for the deal itself
i think there was only a little bit of daylight for this contract to have been better but not been so overly favorable that it was worth signing over the tag. i think getting a 5th year would have been a positive, but id imagine the cost of getting was more expensive.
i think this is a really good deal for both sides, but perhaps a slightly better deal for jones than the nyg depending on the incentives because based on the PFT report im thinking the incentives are much more likely to pay out than the giants using the emergency chutes after year 2 or 3.
Not sure who "blinked". Schoen needed cap room and Team Jones made him pay through the nose for it, so they both got what they needed.
At the risk of throwing some red meat to the Danielistas who hardly need it, it could be that declining the option had little to do with evaluating Jones and mostly to do with bringing the long term contract situation to a head this year. It was going to be a big number and by structuring that large number, it was possible to find room to eat the Golloway dead money (which amazingly was announced the day after the contract). The LT deal was coming unless Jones completely fell flat on his face in which event the 5th year was moot anyway. He didn't and so there was an opportunity to create the room within the context of a long term deal.
solid B+/A for the deal itself
i think there was only a little bit of daylight for this contract to have been better but not been so overly favorable that it was worth signing over the tag. i think getting a 5th year would have been a positive, but id imagine the cost of getting was more expensive.
i think this is a really good deal for both sides, but perhaps a slightly better deal for jones than the nyg depending on the incentives because based on the PFT report im thinking the incentives are much more likely to pay out than the giants using the emergency chutes after year 2 or 3.
I disagree about the 5th year....I am sure thats what DJ wanted-$200/5 $110 guar or something to that effect
This deal gives us a real out earlier than that if he doesnt step up,and if he does well then I think we will be happy to renegotiate or resign him.
Has that been used before and I missed it?
Classic!
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and some that we know are atypical and hard to quantify - for example some of them are tied to whether he is a "top 5 qb" but we dont know what measures are being used to define that. the blurb by PFF is the most detailed i've seen and whatever they are knowing he hit 33% of his max last year leads me to believe that's probably an expected baseline he can exceed if he improves statistically. i would think we'll hear more from this.
the fact that there are 70m worth of incentives in there (with a max out at 35m) means they are probably wide-ranging and there are a lot of different ways he can hit them (individual stats, team success, etc).
thanks for digging in on this....
How would you grade this deal from The Giants POV?
I also looks like as he hits them, they are carried over and added to the following years of the contract - looks cumulative.
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In comment 16057550 Eric on Li said:
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and some that we know are atypical and hard to quantify - for example some of them are tied to whether he is a "top 5 qb" but we dont know what measures are being used to define that. the blurb by PFF is the most detailed i've seen and whatever they are knowing he hit 33% of his max last year leads me to believe that's probably an expected baseline he can exceed if he improves statistically. i would think we'll hear more from this.
the fact that there are 70m worth of incentives in there (with a max out at 35m) means they are probably wide-ranging and there are a lot of different ways he can hit them (individual stats, team success, etc).
thanks for digging in on this....
How would you grade this deal from The Giants POV?
I also looks like as he hits them, they are carried over and added to the following years of the contract - looks cumulative.
Is it me or is this contract very different than past deals?
i dont think anyone said that's a positive for him - if he's cut in 2 years that's bad for him.
I was responding to this quote.
Getting cut would mean he failed and no way he recoups the money he lost. Simple as that.
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i dont think anyone said that's a positive for him - if he's cut in 2 years that's bad for him.
I was responding to this quote.
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Bottom line, he gets 82 mil for 2 years, at worst, and then can hit an open market if he gets cut. That ain't bad, and that's worst case.
Getting cut would mean he failed and no way he recoups the money he lost. Simple as that.
what money lost though? without a tag he was getting guaranteed 32m. with the extension he got 82m which is more than 2 tags would have been. im not understanding where he's left any $ on the table (especially if the pff report is accurate re incentives).
Word is that was a sticking point. The give/take would have been the Giants wanting a lower guaranteed number in year 3 if it was going to vest early. Team Jones passed for a larger year 3 guarantee.
Getting cut would mean he failed and no way he recoups the money he lost. Simple as that.
what money lost though? without a tag he was getting guaranteed 32m. with the extension he got 82m which is more than 2 tags would have been. im not understanding where he's left any $ on the table (especially if the pff report is accurate re incentives).
I don't get what you aren't grasping.
Getting cut after 2 years would be a bad thing. It would mean the Giants didn't want him any longer, and he wouldn't earn the additional 80M+ left on his deal. And probably not have earned any of the incentives.
Getting cut and having to re-enter the market would be a bad thing. Red Right Hand's comment that "it ain't bad" if he's cut is ridiculous.
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does this mean 'blood on Mara's hands' goes away as a meme?
no i think that one gets referenced for a while yet to come. hopefully that one becomes "why is tyree in the game?!?!?!" 2.0.
Wow quite the victory lap for you. But have you ever considered the idea that you and most people here follow a similar pattern. Parrot team perspectives, some % turn on the team as it gets worse and worse, but make no mistake you are almost always on the team side.
Comps are relevant. And you'll have to make the case as to why DJ deserves more than Geno or Carr (who he signed after) other than the sob story about his teammates. Statistically there isn't any argument and last I checked that's what contracts are supposed to be based on.
The only explanation for that surplus value is that personal feelings came into it or leverage was applied to the Giants well. Either way you can look to roots of the way Mara has spoken about Jones as very much contributors there.
It is certainly an easy analytical approach to see the logic in what a professional sports organization chooses to do. Those aren't difficult frameworks to grasp. Bully for you.
But I don't really think they had to do it this way, sign Jones long term. And they certainly didn't have to telegraph that they weren't going to use the tag as obviously as they did which 100% hurt their negotiating position.
I'd have tagged him and made him perform again, and been open to doing it again. That is cheaper than this contract. Do I think many will see my point of view now? No, not really.
But let's hold the the celebration of what a joke it is until you see him do it for more than 1 year. Because I think we just overcommitted to a player with flaws. Including that he might get injured. Including that a bet that neither him or Saquon get injured when I think you need them both to field a winner is highly risky.
I'm by no means sure I'm right. But you are way overconfident you are because most people are comfortable looking at the obvious way to do things and acting like that is the way it had to be done.
Let's review after we see how Jones looks at this price tag after this year maybe, yeah?
If jones turned down the 82m guaranteed bc he wanted more, played poorly, and ultimately received less that would be lost money. Players who have held out in the past, gotten fined, and hurt their careers lost money. The Mets offered michael conforto an extension over 100m a couple years ago that he turned down 1 year ahead of FA. He had a bad year, hurt himself during the lockout, missed a prime earning year and ended up taking a deal 1/3 the size from sf this offseason. That’s lost money.
Jones just got I think 1 of the 10 biggest guarantees in nfl history. If he can’t play well enough to justify a 30m salary to any of 32 teams in 2025 then he isn’t the one who lost anythjng on this deal.
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In comment 16057195 ColHowPepper said:
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does this mean 'blood on Mara's hands' goes away as a meme?
no i think that one gets referenced for a while yet to come. hopefully that one becomes "why is tyree in the game?!?!?!" 2.0.
Wow quite the victory lap for you. But have you ever considered the idea that you and most people here follow a similar pattern. Parrot team perspectives, some % turn on the team as it gets worse and worse, but make no mistake you are almost always on the team side.
Comps are relevant. And you'll have to make the case as to why DJ deserves more than Geno or Carr (who he signed after) other than the sob story about his teammates. Statistically there isn't any argument and last I checked that's what contracts are supposed to be based on.
The only explanation for that surplus value is that personal feelings came into it or leverage was applied to the Giants well. Either way you can look to roots of the way Mara has spoken about Jones as very much contributors there.
It is certainly an easy analytical approach to see the logic in what a professional sports organization chooses to do. Those aren't difficult frameworks to grasp. Bully for you.
But I don't really think they had to do it this way, sign Jones long term. And they certainly didn't have to telegraph that they weren't going to use the tag as obviously as they did which 100% hurt their negotiating position.
I'd have tagged him and made him perform again, and been open to doing it again. That is cheaper than this contract. Do I think many will see my point of view now? No, not really.
But let's hold the the celebration of what a joke it is until you see him do it for more than 1 year. Because I think we just overcommitted to a player with flaws. Including that he might get injured. Including that a bet that neither him or Saquon get injured when I think you need them both to field a winner is highly risky.
I'm by no means sure I'm right. But you are way overconfident you are because most people are comfortable looking at the obvious way to do things and acting like that is the way it had to be done.
Let's review after we see how Jones looks at this price tag after this year maybe, yeah?
I have a difficult time typing your username being a Wisconsin alum and all but so be it...
I admire your honesty and courage to take a position you believe in and know will be unpopular...
The issue with tagging DJ had more to do with the Salary Cap hit for this year...and the timing of Saquons contract situation..
This deal basically is only 2 years longer gives us much more flexibility and though it's not without risk or downside...it was in the end a market rate deal.
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In comment 16057195 ColHowPepper said:
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does this mean 'blood on Mara's hands' goes away as a meme?
no i think that one gets referenced for a while yet to come. hopefully that one becomes "why is tyree in the game?!?!?!" 2.0.
Wow quite the victory lap for you. But have you ever considered the idea that you and most people here follow a similar pattern. Parrot team perspectives, some % turn on the team as it gets worse and worse, but make no mistake you are almost always on the team side.
Comps are relevant. And you'll have to make the case as to why DJ deserves more than Geno or Carr (who he signed after) other than the sob story about his teammates. Statistically there isn't any argument and last I checked that's what contracts are supposed to be based on.
The only explanation for that surplus value is that personal feelings came into it or leverage was applied to the Giants well. Either way you can look to roots of the way Mara has spoken about Jones as very much contributors there.
It is certainly an easy analytical approach to see the logic in what a professional sports organization chooses to do. Those aren't difficult frameworks to grasp. Bully for you.
But I don't really think they had to do it this way, sign Jones long term. And they certainly didn't have to telegraph that they weren't going to use the tag as obviously as they did which 100% hurt their negotiating position.
I'd have tagged him and made him perform again, and been open to doing it again. That is cheaper than this contract. Do I think many will see my point of view now? No, not really.
But let's hold the the celebration of what a joke it is until you see him do it for more than 1 year. Because I think we just overcommitted to a player with flaws. Including that he might get injured. Including that a bet that neither him or Saquon get injured when I think you need them both to field a winner is highly risky.
I'm by no means sure I'm right. But you are way overconfident you are because most people are comfortable looking at the obvious way to do things and acting like that is the way it had to be done.
Let's review after we see how Jones looks at this price tag after this year maybe, yeah?
I know most things need to be taken with a grain of salt....
Has it ever occured to you that Schoen and Daboll concluded that Daniel Jones is a pretty damn good QB - better than either Smith or Carr(besides being much younger)? I suggest you just give a brief listen to Papa and Banks Bleav podcast video. Banks gets into some explanations of the Giants offense last year - just how really bad the WRs were. Of course your comeback will be they are company men. Which is true - but Banks actually throws the Giants WRs under the bus (as well as ILBs, Azeez Ojulari and backup DL..) I was really surprised he would be that open.
Most of us will continue to be skeptical of Jones. But we will at least give him the opportunity to get back on the field with an improved lineup and see how he does.
Jones just got I think 1 of the 10 biggest guarantees in nfl history. If he can’t play well enough to justify a 30m salary to any of 32 teams in 2025 then he isn’t the one who lost anythjng on this deal.
I literally I have no idea what you're trying to say there ^.
Let's try this again.
Jones playing well and earning another 80M+ in 2025 and 2026 is a better outcome for him, than underperforming, getting cut, and presumably making less with another team.
I'm not making a commentary on the contract. I'm simply saying if he doesn't play well, it is a "bad thing for him."
If someone gave you the opportunity to make 160M at work over 4 years, and you got fired after 2 years, you'd view that as a bad outcome for yourself, no?
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In comment 16057195 ColHowPepper said:
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does this mean 'blood on Mara's hands' goes away as a meme?
no i think that one gets referenced for a while yet to come. hopefully that one becomes "why is tyree in the game?!?!?!" 2.0.
Wow quite the victory lap for you. But have you ever considered the idea that you and most people here follow a similar pattern. Parrot team perspectives, some % turn on the team as it gets worse and worse, but make no mistake you are almost always on the team side.
Comps are relevant. And you'll have to make the case as to why DJ deserves more than Geno or Carr (who he signed after) other than the sob story about his teammates. Statistically there isn't any argument and last I checked that's what contracts are supposed to be based on.
The only explanation for that surplus value is that personal feelings came into it or leverage was applied to the Giants well. Either way you can look to roots of the way Mara has spoken about Jones as very much contributors there.
It is certainly an easy analytical approach to see the logic in what a professional sports organization chooses to do. Those aren't difficult frameworks to grasp. Bully for you.
But I don't really think they had to do it this way, sign Jones long term. And they certainly didn't have to telegraph that they weren't going to use the tag as obviously as they did which 100% hurt their negotiating position.
I'd have tagged him and made him perform again, and been open to doing it again. That is cheaper than this contract. Do I think many will see my point of view now? No, not really.
But let's hold the the celebration of what a joke it is until you see him do it for more than 1 year. Because I think we just overcommitted to a player with flaws. Including that he might get injured. Including that a bet that neither him or Saquon get injured when I think you need them both to field a winner is highly risky.
I'm by no means sure I'm right. But you are way overconfident you are because most people are comfortable looking at the obvious way to do things and acting like that is the way it had to be done.
Let's review after we see how Jones looks at this price tag after this year maybe, yeah?
if you want my thoughts on statistical comps enjoy this thread from 1/2/23.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=630357
if you want to look at where i thought the contract was going based on those comps from that same week see my comments in this thread. this was before most of the current speculation was out there to "parrot", obviously long before jones changed agents, and those in the know were quoting 2-3 year deals between 25-30m per year.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=630742&thread_page=1
also you realize the entire reason the "why is tyree in the game?!" thing is remembered by anyone is because he ended up making a play that won the super bowl right? not sure if you misunderstood the reference but i wasnt taking a victory lap, i was saying hopefully this ends the same way with a super bowl. is that not something you'd agree with?
obviously. this goes without saying. it's different from saying he lost money (see my next answer).
In comment 16057695 christian said:
not if i made more money after the first 2 years than i would have any other way. and if i had clearly defined objectives that were known, like the first 2 years were guaranteed but the last 2 depended on me hitting those objectives. if i didn't achieve them i wouldn't consider that "lost money".
now if i turned down that same offer thinking i'd be worth more 1 or 2 years down the road, and i wasn't, id consider whatever the amount i turned down and didn't make back lost money.
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In comment 16057206 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16057195 ColHowPepper said:
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does this mean 'blood on Mara's hands' goes away as a meme?
no i think that one gets referenced for a while yet to come. hopefully that one becomes "why is tyree in the game?!?!?!" 2.0.
Wow quite the victory lap for you. But have you ever considered the idea that you and most people here follow a similar pattern. Parrot team perspectives, some % turn on the team as it gets worse and worse, but make no mistake you are almost always on the team side.
Comps are relevant. And you'll have to make the case as to why DJ deserves more than Geno or Carr (who he signed after) other than the sob story about his teammates. Statistically there isn't any argument and last I checked that's what contracts are supposed to be based on.
The only explanation for that surplus value is that personal feelings came into it or leverage was applied to the Giants well. Either way you can look to roots of the way Mara has spoken about Jones as very much contributors there.
It is certainly an easy analytical approach to see the logic in what a professional sports organization chooses to do. Those aren't difficult frameworks to grasp. Bully for you.
But I don't really think they had to do it this way, sign Jones long term. And they certainly didn't have to telegraph that they weren't going to use the tag as obviously as they did which 100% hurt their negotiating position.
I'd have tagged him and made him perform again, and been open to doing it again. That is cheaper than this contract. Do I think many will see my point of view now? No, not really.
But let's hold the the celebration of what a joke it is until you see him do it for more than 1 year. Because I think we just overcommitted to a player with flaws. Including that he might get injured. Including that a bet that neither him or Saquon get injured when I think you need them both to field a winner is highly risky.
I'm by no means sure I'm right. But you are way overconfident you are because most people are comfortable looking at the obvious way to do things and acting like that is the way it had to be done.
Let's review after we see how Jones looks at this price tag after this year maybe, yeah?
I know most things need to be taken with a grain of salt....
Has it ever occured to you that Schoen and Daboll concluded that Daniel Jones is a pretty damn good QB - better than either Smith or Carr(besides being much younger)? I suggest you just give a brief listen to Papa and Banks Bleav podcast video. Banks gets into some explanations of the Giants offense last year - just how really bad the WRs were. Of course your comeback will be they are company men. Which is true - but Banks actually throws the Giants WRs under the bus (as well as ILBs, Azeez Ojulari and backup DL..) I was really surprised he would be that open.
Most of us will continue to be skeptical of Jones. But we will at least give him the opportunity to get back on the field with an improved lineup and see how he does.
Starting with Mara the company line seems to be it is ok to throw people under the bus as long as his darling Jones has excuse after excuse made for him. But honestly I couldn't care less about what Banks or him say in my determination of Jones.
I went to 3 games this year. I have eyes. He missed a lot of throws. My biggest problem with him is that when things go bad for him they snowball, just as they did in the Eagles game. And even before that game I suggested that he still hasn't demonstrated he can handle pressure consistently and I was concerned how he'd handle a big contract. Sure, against easier competition he's looked on top of the world but he doesn't have the confidence I look for in a QB.
I was ride or die with Eli from day 1. I would shout down my friends about it in college. I loved him going into the draft, he was oozing confidence. I'm that same fan today for any player I fully believe in.
I'm rooting for Jones. He doesn't inspire confidence for me at all. I give people a hard time for this sometimes but he does seem like a nice guy that cares but that doesn't mean you know how to be your best when those seeds of doubt pour into even the most talented and accomplished of people. He hasn't figured that out yet and I don't know if he ever will and is far to dependent on things going well in my estimation. Or if you look at the step forward he took, leans on coaching and if he has to go off script is too lost for my tastes.
To me the talk around him is all part of the way that he is handled. And again, SUPER non-traditional to have an owner throw his other players under a bus to prop up the confidence of his QB. But I do think he has the makeup that they believe that actually helps him and that alone is a scary and very real factor to me.
I really want him to do well, to prove me wrong, to best good defenses and go on a run. For work I have to do a very good job of separating out my feelings on something from what I actually think is going to happen. Maybe that makes me different? But it is unavoidable when I look at this situation.
I put on my pants in the morning and am wrong just like everybody else. But I also think in unconventional frameworks and stand my ground when people think they are ridiculous. The main reason I share these things even when I know I'm going to get heat for it is, I believe in the value of ideas and that better ones come out of the exchange of a wide spectrum of views.
Said differently, I don't think my opinion is the end all be all but if I say something it is because I thought about it a lot and I really believe it. And often I'm going to force myself to use some kind of real data set even if it is an unorthodox one.
Anyway I'm aware I piss you off at lest a little sometimes lol and this is a very reasonable post from you so I wanted to respond in kind.
Quote:
In comment 16057206 Eric on Li said:
if you want my thoughts on statistical comps enjoy this thread from 1/2/23.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=630357
if you want to look at where i thought the contract was going based on those comps from that same week see my comments in this thread. this was before most of the current speculation was out there to "parrot", obviously long before jones changed agents, and those in the know were quoting 2-3 year deals between 25-30m per year.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=630742&thread_page=1
also you realize the entire reason the "why is tyree in the game?!" thing is remembered by anyone is because he ended up making a play that won the super bowl right? not sure if you misunderstood the reference but i wasnt taking a victory lap, i was saying hopefully this ends the same way with a super bowl. is that not something you'd agree with?
Lol we are good on that. I thought you were counting the contract signing as the vindication. Put me right up on that wall of fame if he takes the title. I could easily see us back in the playoffs during this deal if Neal and/or Thibs takes the leap in year 2, we hit on the draft etc. But I'm not buying this team construction with him at these dollars as a Superbowl team at all. Won't be sad in the least bit to be wrong about that though.
I really disagree with your comps though. Using this season of Murray is a real bad comp. He's small, his body was breaking down. Compare the deal signing seasons and it isn't a comp at all.
Herbert also a very bad comp, as much as Mara and some people here want to toss out other seasons. You get paid for your body of work not just a single season.
Lamar is an MVP player c'mon.
Dak is a 2X pro bowler. Those pro bowls are worth dollars. This is the point of contract negotiations, you are talking about it as if you are making a case for Jones like it feels like the Giants did. But it is not the Giants job to make excuses for him and blame his teammates and project his stats higher due to his teammates. It is their job to get the best possible deal. That's how you win.
Lawrence is on a rookie deal so that is literally not a comp.
That's what I'm saying it feels a little intellectually dishonest and highly "cherry picky" to use those comps because there are very basic and easy reasons to toss them out that shouldn't really be that controversial. And again not difficult for the Giants if you are trying to have a legit negotiation. (You know one that doesn't have you falling over yourself ready to commit after a playoff victory)
Geno is by far the best comp. Essentially worthless careers before this year and then their best years. Geno went to the pro bowl, again that should make him worth more. What's the statistical argument that Jones deserves more than Geno?
what's your statistical argument re jones' qbr not mattering?
what's your statistical argument about jones having a higher qbrtg than kyler, the exact same rating as herbert, and a higher rating than lamar last year? statistically how was that possible?
how are those statistics so flawed to arrive at a different outcome than yours? why did 3 seperate nfl teams arrive at contractual outcomes so different to the statistics you believe are so obvious?
I'm sure Murray's team wasn't happy with what they were paying him this year but he certainly did not play like that before he signed the contract.
Regardless your point isn't a good one. DJ was one above Geno in QBR. And EPA Geno above Jones. So even if you want to toss out the Pro Bowl accolade (which you really shouldn't because that 1000% comes up in a negotiation)
Let's call them exactly the same in efficiency stats though. Why does Jones get a good chunk more money?
Has it ever occured to you that Schoen and Daboll concluded that Daniel Jones is a pretty damn good QB - better than either Smith or Carr(besides being much younger)? I suggest you just give a brief listen to Papa and Banks Bleav podcast video. Banks gets into some explanations of the Giants offense last year - just how really bad the WRs were. Of course your comeback will be they are company men. Which is true - but Banks actually throws the Giants WRs under the bus (as well as ILBs, Azeez Ojulari and backup DL..) I was really surprised he would be that open.
Most of us will continue to be skeptical of Jones. But we will at least give him the opportunity to get back on the field with an improved lineup and see how he does.
Starting with Mara the company line seems to be it is ok to throw people under the bus as long as his darling Jones has excuse after excuse made for him. But honestly I couldn't care less about what Banks or him say in my determination of Jones.
I went to 3 games this year. I have eyes. He missed a lot of throws. My biggest problem with him is that when things go bad for him they snowball, just as they did in the Eagles game. And even before that game I suggested that he still hasn't demonstrated he can handle pressure consistently and I was concerned how he'd handle a big contract. Sure, against easier competition he's looked on top of the world but he doesn't have the confidence I look for in a QB.
I was ride or die with Eli from day 1. I would shout down my friends about it in college. I loved him going into the draft, he was oozing confidence. I'm that same fan today for any player I fully believe in.
I'm rooting for Jones. He doesn't inspire confidence for me at all. I give people a hard time for this sometimes but he does seem like a nice guy that cares but that doesn't mean you know how to be your best when those seeds of doubt pour into even the most talented and accomplished of people. He hasn't figured that out yet and I don't know if he ever will and is far to dependent on things going well in my estimation. Or if you look at the step forward he took, leans on coaching and if he has to go off script is too lost for my tastes.
To me the talk around him is all part of the way that he is handled. And again, SUPER non-traditional to have an owner throw his other players under a bus to prop up the confidence of his QB. But I do think he has the makeup that they believe that actually helps him and that alone is a scary and very real factor to me.
I really want him to do well, to prove me wrong, to best good defenses and go on a run. For work I have to do a very good job of separating out my feelings on something from what I actually think is going to happen. Maybe that makes me different? But it is unavoidable when I look at this situation.
I put on my pants in the morning and am wrong just like everybody else. But I also think in unconventional frameworks and stand my ground when people think they are ridiculous. The main reason I share these things even when I know I'm going to get heat for it is, I believe in the value of ideas and that better ones come out of the exchange of a wide spectrum of views.
Said differently, I don't think my opinion is the end all be all but if I say something it is because I thought about it a lot and I really believe it. And often I'm going to force myself to use some kind of real data set even if it is an unorthodox one.
Anyway I'm aware I piss you off at lest a little sometimes lol and this is a very reasonable post from you so I wanted to respond in kind.
Well thanks for the reply. I cannot agree with you that the owner has anything to do with Banks(the guy knows more about football than all of us on BBI together) basically saying the WRs suck as well as ILB, etc.
You should listen to the video yourself. Banks and Papa flat out said the Daboll told them that if the WRs were open and Jones did not throw it there it was because the WRs were out of position and not where Jones' read was. Just because you were there at a game and saw someone open does not mean that you are right that Jones missed them. Remember Shepard going ballistic on the bench in the 2nd game of the year screaming at the WRs to learn their jobs?
That is also not to say that there were times WRs got open and Jones did not throw them the ball. Happens every game with every QB. Players get open after the QB has moved on to another read.
I also think you read far too much into things or have your POV so entrenched in your mind that everything is a conspiracy to protect Jones. Do you really think Daboll cannot tell a good QB from a bad QB? Do you really think that Schoen would turn down the 5th year option on Jones and then turn around and sign him to a long term deal if he didn't believe that Jones was the real deal? Schoen was unwilling to commit to $22.4 mill a year ago. Does it seem reasonable to you that he would then just throw $40 mill at Jones for no reason? Why would Schoen do that? Biggest decision of his and Daboll's careers and they wantonly throw money at an undeserving QB? Jones must be the biggest deception artist in the NFL or Schoen is the dumbest GM. On top of that, the guy credited for sorting out Josh Allen in short order now mistakenly thinks Jones is a good NFL QB with upside. Do you really think Daboll no longer recognizes what the attributes of a good NFL QB are?
I don't need to change your mind. I just think you are unreasonable on some of your points.
But, WTF knows....Maybe it is all smoke and mirrors and the world really is flat.
Oh and Eli, to your point, FWIW, since I worked with people from all over the country and met NFL fans of almost every team, not one of them, that I can remember, thought Eli was anything more than an average QB. Seriously, guy has two rings and most just pointed out he was a .500 QB.
I'm sure Murray's team wasn't happy with what they were paying him this year but he certainly did not play like that before he signed the contract.
Regardless your point isn't a good one. DJ was one above Geno in QBR. And EPA Geno above Jones. So even if you want to toss out the Pro Bowl accolade (which you really shouldn't because that 1000% comes up in a negotiation)
Let's call them exactly the same in efficiency stats though. Why does Jones get a good chunk more money?
im removing the blood on my hands from removing you from bbi mute but as a courtesy my last reply will answer your questions.
you are right that geno smith's career is unlike jones (and carr) - 3 teams had given up on him and his current team barely thought much of him as a backup after having him rostered since 2019, which is why last year as a free agent they only gave him a minimum contract with just 500k guaranteed. so nobody was more surprised by what he did this past year than the team that evaluated him every day for 3+ seasons. he is a text book 32 year old year old journeyman whose cinderella season trailed off over the back half of the year when he threw 7 of his ints in the last 7 games as teams adjusted and he stopped catching them off guard (and as his team stopped winning as frequently). seattle smartly sounds like they are still very much considering a qb at #5 and smartly structured their deal with a 1 year out because 9 years of geno smiths career with a previous career high of 13 tds say that last year's 30 td outburst was a fluke, likely because he had 2 great receivers help him lead the league with 15 touchdowns over 20 yards. but hey, i honestly think he seems like a decent guy and going back to wv he always had some talent, maybe he's rich gannon part 2. but he doesn't seem to think so or else he'd have taken the tag or gone to the open market instead of settling for 40m guaranteed. so if you think he's worth more you should send him a letter, maybe he'll hire you to negotiate his next deal. stop posting on bbi and start writing that out because that next negotiation could be 12 months away.
re jones my answers are pretty similar to what schoen articulated today so if you disagree you can take it up with him. jones has played 4 seasons, the first and the last were productive by a bunch of measures and in between the entire organization was a mess so it's hard to evaluate -- but even with that mess all 4 DJ seasons were on another galaxy from anything geno did in his 8 seasons before 2022. unlike both carr and geno, jones is still just 25 years old and since age is a statistic you should understand that carries unknown and upside. if not here's an explanation from joe re how he views it:
jones and carr got really similar contracts because they are both rightfully viewed as mid market starting qbs. jones got some extra sugar because he's younger and carries upside along with that youth (and his rushing ability). his current regime clearly believes the arrow is pointed up while carr's old team clearly thought the opposite. judging by his contract his new team is somewhere in between and they are probably right that carr just is what he is at this point, but that was still worth a 4 year 160m contract.
Do I think I know more about QBs than BD? Hell no. Do I know more about organizational psychology? I'd wager yes. And decisions in multi-billion organizations don't come down solely to X's and O's.
Besides, everybody said you can't question DG too because he was the football guy. Similar reasoning. How'd that turn out?
There is a great quote in the book zero to one that is something to the effect of, look around you, everything you see was invented by people who believed they could build something that wasn't there yet.
I can't tell you how many times in my life people have told me I couldn't do something because other people who knew way more than me were on top of it already. I don't know who propagates this type of thinking but it is bullshit. I see amateur traders every day that I'd say have better processes and win rates than pros who'd confidently dismiss that idea. And I'm sorry but football isn't the stock market. These people aren't gods. None of us own a monopoly on analyzing information.
And besides the thing that bothers me about Jones isn't that sometimes his teammates drag him down (they do) it isn't that at times he can play almost flawlessly (he can) it is that all of it is there for him and at times he just doesn't perform and he turtles up and his head is clearly making his body play worse. And that is of substantial concern that 4 years in he doesn't have that sorted. Most of the QBs I love appear to be born with that skill. And yeah they might fuck up but it FOR SURE isn't because they are playing tight.
And this is where the rubber meets the road. I had many more questions about the previous guys than I do JS and BD I will 1000% give you that.
But I've done an immense amount of studying of leadership, all sizes of organizations and from many vantage points. I know a bad leader when I see one. Not only is John Mara a bad one but the way he has embedded his family in the business is just not a good idea. Is he the worst? The only one? No way. However, the flaws in these methods are glaring and while I do think he has gotten some of the message and there is a hope of a better future. There are signs that he hasn't.
I know nothing of QB analysis compared to BD or JS but I do know what a bad leader can due to even the best workers. And you are vastly oversimplifying what it is like to work for a man who kicks garbage cans and can't contain his open love for a player you need to negotiate with. This idea that he is being forced JS or DB is bogus and nobody is making that point, nobody has. But unlike the popular opinions that DG is a moron or Reese turned into an idiot. I'm more of the belief that there is a constant specter of bad decision making and nepotism in that building and to me the Jones thing showed the most concerning signs of it I've seen since JS arrived.
Again, to be clear, I'm not saying nothing has changed or doubting what look to be our best hires in a long, long time. I am saying that there are signs we have some better leaders in that building but those are just some of the many leaders and many remained that sent us into the gutter. Including some of the most important positions at the top...
For all the credit BB gets. Kraft analytics was so good that he started selling it to other sports teams. We actually were so bad, for so long, with many different leaders, the only variable you can point to is bad ownership behavior. You really can't think that one year, and a few good hires and you wave the mission accomplished banner can you?
JS's job isn't to make Jones case for him it is to do the opposite in the negotiation. And it doesn't look like they did that. And that is the point. How could they with the owner undercutting him with that very language?
Was is Geno a journeyman instead of a guy that just never got the right situation? See how you can twist that the other way too? Geno, the Pro Bowler the league adjusted to. But I guess our QB who couldn't throw for many yards against good defenses that is all the fault of his teammates. We get these double standards when talking about Jones.
And while you didn't seem to like me mentioning you parroting team lines you are going to lean on a JS press conference? That is exactly my point. The whole point is you can slant it all you want towards Jones in a press conference announcing he's staying but you very much should not do that before leading into a negotiation.
Is it really that painful to have someone disagree with you and the team?
Quote:
I'm not making a commentary on the contract. I'm simply saying if he doesn't play well, it is a "bad thing for him."
obviously. this goes without saying. it's different from saying he lost money (see my next answer).
In comment 16057695 christian said:
Quote:
If someone gave you the opportunity to make 160M at work over 4 years, and you got fired after 2 years, you'd view that as a bad outcome for yourself, no?
not if i made more money after the first 2 years than i would have any other way. and if i had clearly defined objectives that were known, like the first 2 years were guaranteed but the last 2 depended on me hitting those objectives. if i didn't achieve them i wouldn't consider that "lost money".
now if i turned down that same offer thinking i'd be worth more 1 or 2 years down the road, and i wasn't, id consider whatever the amount i turned down and didn't make back lost money.
Yes or no answer:
If you didn't achieve those things objectives, and your subsequent salary potential over the those two years was lower after you got fired. Would that be a bad thing for you?
JS's job isn't to make Jones case for him it is to do the opposite in the negotiation. And it doesn't look like they did that. And that is the point. How could they with the owner undercutting him with that very language?
Was is Geno a journeyman instead of a guy that just never got the right situation? See how you can twist that the other way too? Geno, the Pro Bowler the league adjusted to. But I guess our QB who couldn't throw for many yards against good defenses that is all the fault of his teammates. We get these double standards when talking about Jones.
And while you didn't seem to like me mentioning you parroting team lines you are going to lean on a JS press conference? That is exactly my point. The whole point is you can slant it all you want towards Jones in a press conference announcing he's staying but you very much should not do that before leading into a negotiation.
Is it really that painful to have someone disagree with you and the team?
NGD, if you want to call people telling you why they did X,Y or Z parroting team lines, then we have nothing further to debate. And you never wanted to hear why the QB was re-signed.
But I did see that you could not explain why a new GM who turned down the 5th year option of a QB and then after a year of seeing him play, signed him to a 4 year deal. Here was a chance to move on, perhaps sign Carr to a deal and go in a different direction. Didn't happen. Why?
The question is not whether Geno finally got in a good situation - he did - but how come Russ Wilson left Seattle and bombed in Denver. Now an astute fan would say, hmmm, Pete Carroll must have carried Wilson and not the other way around. An astute fan would wonder why a long time career backup flourished after arriving in Seattle while the long time Pro Bowler fell to pieces at a new city....oh and getting Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, btw. But you know, Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins there is an equal match of WRs.
It is not painful to have someone disagree with me if they can actually support a position - hell I was anti-jones from mid 2021. But it is annoying to have someone knowingly twist things and refuse to answer simple questions - like why did the GM turn down the 5th year option and 12 months later sign a 4 year mid-level deal? Or - how does a guy with 20 years working with the games best QBs and many in between - the same guy that made Josh Allen what he is now believe that Jones is a QB that can win a Super Bowl? Your answer is that John Mara made them do it.
Until you answer why a team ready to dump their QB 12 months ago just signed him to a 4 year deal, then I am done with this.
Quote:
to say?
JS's job isn't to make Jones case for him it is to do the opposite in the negotiation. And it doesn't look like they did that. And that is the point. How could they with the owner undercutting him with that very language?
Was is Geno a journeyman instead of a guy that just never got the right situation? See how you can twist that the other way too? Geno, the Pro Bowler the league adjusted to. But I guess our QB who couldn't throw for many yards against good defenses that is all the fault of his teammates. We get these double standards when talking about Jones.
And while you didn't seem to like me mentioning you parroting team lines you are going to lean on a JS press conference? That is exactly my point. The whole point is you can slant it all you want towards Jones in a press conference announcing he's staying but you very much should not do that before leading into a negotiation.
Is it really that painful to have someone disagree with you and the team?
NGD, if you want to call people telling you why they did X,Y or Z parroting team lines, then we have nothing further to debate. And you never wanted to hear why the QB was re-signed.
But I did see that you could not explain why a new GM who turned down the 5th year option of a QB and then after a year of seeing him play, signed him to a 4 year deal. Here was a chance to move on, perhaps sign Carr to a deal and go in a different direction. Didn't happen. Why?
The question is not whether Geno finally got in a good situation - he did - but how come Russ Wilson left Seattle and bombed in Denver. Now an astute fan would say, hmmm, Pete Carroll must have carried Wilson and not the other way around. An astute fan would wonder why a long time career backup flourished after arriving in Seattle while the long time Pro Bowler fell to pieces at a new city....oh and getting Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, btw. But you know, Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins there is an equal match of WRs.
It is not painful to have someone disagree with me if they can actually support a position - hell I was anti-jones from mid 2021. But it is annoying to have someone knowingly twist things and refuse to answer simple questions - like why did the GM turn down the 5th year option and 12 months later sign a 4 year mid-level deal? Or - how does a guy with 20 years working with the games best QBs and many in between - the same guy that made Josh Allen what he is now believe that Jones is a QB that can win a Super Bowl? Your answer is that John Mara made them do it.
Until you answer why a team ready to dump their QB 12 months ago just signed him to a 4 year deal, then I am done with this.
A. This was a response to Eric not you
B. It’s pretty simple you turn down the 5th year option because you don’t think someone has proven enough to get a long term deal. Eric from BBI said Jones has a lot to prove and I’d agree and that is the risk I’m referring to. Not to mention the injury risk. He did play hurt this year credit to him but that makes every season he’s been injured
C. Speaking of twisting words. This idea that Mara forced this decision on any of these people is continually twisted that is a consistent strawman thrown around here at me and others. My concern has always been that the feelings of Mara towards Jones would result in an overpay and there are a number of public things that have been said that bare minimum hurt our negotiation position and that is just what we know of. These situations are often icebergs.
D. Some of you struggle with nuance. I’m sure every coach believes his QB signed to a long term deal can take them to the Super Bowl that doesn’t change the question of what the reasonable about to pay someone is. Nor does it make them infallible or incapable of being wrong because they coached another QB that got a lot better. The Allen comparisons are tired and old. I’ve never seen Allen turtle up in a game. Allen has a substantially better arm and very similar rushing abilities. Jones doesn’t get to magically be Allen because “BD likes him” and literally no one is debating that no matter how much it is twisted. Just that actually if you do like someone and they are decidedly not Josh Allen it is really best to put yourself in the best position to surround that player in talent and de-risk the risks of them not reaching their potential as much as possible.
The journal wrote a joke article about DJ’s salary being a sign of inflation. The idea that we paid to much for a guy that hasn’t proven nearly enough isn’t nearly as unpopular in broader circles than it is here. I’d call it pretty commonplace actually. So you can take your slant and enjoy it. It doesn’t mean other valid opinions don’t exist just because a certain community of highly biased people don’t see it.
Brock Purdy should get more than them all then right?
A. This was a response to Eric not you
***Thanks for clarification
B. It’s pretty simple you turn down the 5th year option because you don’t think someone has proven enough to get a long term deal. Eric from BBI said Jones has a lot to prove and I’d agree and that is the risk I’m referring to. Not to mention the injury risk. He did play hurt this year credit to him but that makes every season he’s been injured
***We all know he has a lot to prove and I never stopped be skeptical. Still am skeptical - doesn't mean I take the negative POV on every thread.
C. Speaking of twisting words. This idea that Mara forced this decision on any of these people is continually twisted that is a consistent strawman thrown around here at me and others. My concern has always been that the feelings of Mara towards Jones would result in an overpay and there are a number of public things that have been said that bare minimum hurt our negotiation position and that is just what we know of. These situations are often icebergs.
*** anyone using the strawman argument as a reply has lost the argument. And you absolutely continue to imply all things Jones lead back to Mara
D. Some of you struggle with nuance. I’m sure every coach believes his QB signed to a long term deal can take them to the Super Bowl that doesn’t change the question of what the reasonable about to pay someone is. Nor does it make them infallible or incapable of being wrong because they coached another QB that got a lot better. The Allen comparisons are tired and old. I’ve never seen Allen turtle up in a game. Allen has a substantially better arm and very similar rushing abilities. Jones doesn’t get to magically be Allen because “BD likes him” and literally no one is debating that no matter how much it is twisted. Just that actually if you do like someone and they are decidedly not Josh Allen it is really best to put yourself in the best position to surround that player in talent and de-risk the risks of them not reaching their potential as much as possible.
*** nobody(well mostly) has said Jones is Allen. All that was said is that the same guy coached both(merely proving he has coached that played( and Brady too). The same guy improved Allen and has certainly helped Jones. Same guy is more than qualified to determine if a player has the skills to lead a team to the Super Bowl. No doubt Allen has a stronger arm and no one has said otherwise, but Peyton Manning and Joe Montana couldn't break a pane of glass at 20 feet - so arm strength is not an absolute requirement. And before you try to say I am trying to say Jones is one of those two - it is to point out that you do not need a cannon to win in the NFL.
.......So you can take your slant and enjoy it. It doesn’t mean other valid opinions don’t exist just because a certain community of highly biased people don’t see it.
****Opposing opinions are certainly appreciated as long as they do not dodge challenges and quasi-support their opinions with at least some semblance of fact. (yes works both ways)
FWIW, yes Schoen needs to watch what he says - it cost them dearly with Bradberry last year. However, I seriously doubt it cost them much with Jones. Like Colin@GBN said, a few million on a QB is not that consequential in the long run. Realistic people put Jones in the $35 to $38 mill range. It is kind of where he is. Unfortunately it is a QB world. IMHO, no QB is worth what they are getting - none. At least with Mahomes he can damn near do the impossible and he would be the exception.
It puts Jones in the 10-12 range as far as QB contracts in the league which seems to be accurate based on combo of past and future performance. Provides an easy out after 3 years, and some dead money after 2 years but not too much.
All in all, Schoen did great here. Even if Jones improves slightly and doesn't make this massive jump, it is still a good contract.
Quote:
to say?
JS's job isn't to make Jones case for him it is to do the opposite in the negotiation. And it doesn't look like they did that. And that is the point. How could they with the owner undercutting him with that very language?
Was is Geno a journeyman instead of a guy that just never got the right situation? See how you can twist that the other way too? Geno, the Pro Bowler the league adjusted to. But I guess our QB who couldn't throw for many yards against good defenses that is all the fault of his teammates. We get these double standards when talking about Jones.
And while you didn't seem to like me mentioning you parroting team lines you are going to lean on a JS press conference? That is exactly my point. The whole point is you can slant it all you want towards Jones in a press conference announcing he's staying but you very much should not do that before leading into a negotiation.
Is it really that painful to have someone disagree with you and the team?
NGD, if you want to call people telling you why they did X,Y or Z parroting team lines, then we have nothing further to debate. And you never wanted to hear why the QB was re-signed.
But I did see that you could not explain why a new GM who turned down the 5th year option of a QB and then after a year of seeing him play, signed him to a 4 year deal. Here was a chance to move on, perhaps sign Carr to a deal and go in a different direction. Didn't happen. Why?
The question is not whether Geno finally got in a good situation - he did - but how come Russ Wilson left Seattle and bombed in Denver. Now an astute fan would say, hmmm, Pete Carroll must have carried Wilson and not the other way around. An astute fan would wonder why a long time career backup flourished after arriving in Seattle while the long time Pro Bowler fell to pieces at a new city....oh and getting Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, btw. But you know, Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins there is an equal match of WRs.
It is not painful to have someone disagree with me if they can actually support a position - hell I was anti-jones from mid 2021. But it is annoying to have someone knowingly twist things and refuse to answer simple questions - like why did the GM turn down the 5th year option and 12 months later sign a 4 year mid-level deal? Or - how does a guy with 20 years working with the games best QBs and many in between - the same guy that made Josh Allen what he is now believe that Jones is a QB that can win a Super Bowl? Your answer is that John Mara made them do it.
Until you answer why a team ready to dump their QB 12 months ago just signed him to a 4 year deal, then I am done with this.
Quote:
In comment 16057695 christian said:
Quote:
I'm not making a commentary on the contract. I'm simply saying if he doesn't play well, it is a "bad thing for him."
obviously. this goes without saying. it's different from saying he lost money (see my next answer).
In comment 16057695 christian said:
Quote:
If someone gave you the opportunity to make 160M at work over 4 years, and you got fired after 2 years, you'd view that as a bad outcome for yourself, no?
not if i made more money after the first 2 years than i would have any other way. and if i had clearly defined objectives that were known, like the first 2 years were guaranteed but the last 2 depended on me hitting those objectives. if i didn't achieve them i wouldn't consider that "lost money".
now if i turned down that same offer thinking i'd be worth more 1 or 2 years down the road, and i wasn't, id consider whatever the amount i turned down and didn't make back lost money.
Yes or no answer:
If you didn't achieve those things objectives, and your subsequent salary potential over the those two years was lower after you got fired. Would that be a bad thing for you?
strawman i never argued. i responded to this exchange below asking which "lost money" you meant genuinely trying to understand what money you meant he wouldn't recoup.
In comment 16057631 christian said:
Bottom line, he gets 82 mil for 2 years, at worst, and then can hit an open market if he gets cut. That ain't bad, and that's worst case.
Getting cut would mean he failed and no way he recoups the money he lost. Simple as that.
after probably 10k words i think we netted out that you were referencing non-guaranteed money he wouldn't receive because he dramatically underperformed his contract by a significant margin and his fmv is well below his "option years".
i dont agree that that is "lost money" for the same reason i wouldn't think i "lost money" in the scenario you laid out where I didnt hit whatever the agreed objectives were. but i do agree you were right that i should ignore more.
'conversations'. Schoen could be a little less transparent.
As the GM of the team, you don't need to be THAT honest.
Did it hurt the team in these contract negotiations?
Most likely not, I am saying in general, don't lay all your cards on the table. You are going to be dealing with Dexter Lawrence and then Andrew Thomas' agents in the near future!