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Is recency bias coloring our view of free agency?

Klaatu : 3/13/2023 8:32 am
Look, we all know that our former GM was an abysmal failure when it came to free agency. Before that, we had the 2016 spending spree. Short-term gain, long-term pain. So, it's pretty easy to see why a lot of folks want to pull back from the big, splashy, highest-paid-player signings; to take a more cautious, measured approach to free agency, to wait until the market settles down and look at second and third- tier players. I get that.

However, I'm not so sure that Joe Schoen sees it that way, I don't expect him to spend like a drunken sailor, or me at a strip club (wait, what?), but I don't think he's going to be content to stay in the bargain basement. Last year he had to. He had no choice. This year he has options. And while we all like building through the draft, there's no denying that free agents played a huge part in our two most recent championship seasons.

Looking at some of the names in GoDeep13's thread, the thing that stood out to me was that they're mostly under 30. There might be exceptions, of course, but it appeared that it was mostly players who still had an upside, not guys whose best years were obviously behind them. So, maybe not a big splash, but more than a few ripples. We'll see.

One more thing I want to say. Kmed and I went back and forth about trading for a WR. He thinks it's a good idea. I don't. That really doesn't matter. What does matter is that it shows you can have an honest debate on BBI without resorting to name-calling or personal attacks. Sure, things do get heated at times, but we should all strive to can the vitriol and maintain a decent level of decorum.

F*ck any dickhead who doesn't agree with that.
After watching how he worked the roster last year  
lono801 : 3/13/2023 8:40 am : link
With basically his hands tied…and made a silk purse

As far as I’m concerned…he can do whatever he wants.

Complete confidence in any choices made

I don't see any issue  
TrueBlue56 : 3/13/2023 8:51 am : link
With going after big players, but Joe schoen and daboll have to be right. We can't afford a solder or golladay type of mistake. I think we have the right coaches and front office to thoroughly research these players and how they fit at what cost.

As for as wide receivers go, we have seen the impact of legitimate threats in the passing game. AJ Brown transformed the Eagles offense. Odell Beckham impacted how defenses played against us. Look what garrett Wilson did for the Jets. The packers offense changed when they traded Adams. If it takes a trade to get an impact wide receiver, then so be it. To me it's not so much about the compensation as much as it is about the player acquired.

I believe in this coaching staff and their ability to assess talent and keying on players that fit what they want to do on offense and defense.
I've always been a  
Biteymax22 : 3/13/2023 8:55 am : link
"Build through the draft, extend your core players and only spend big when you think you have a shot at the SB" advocate. I was like that well before Reese and Gettleman turned free agency into an annual last ditch effort at keeping their jobs.

I'm hoping we plug holes with moderate priced players on favorable contracts and don't hesitate to draft over them.

We're still building and I hope that isn't a lost fact.
And Schoen has basically said he’s looking for value FA, right?  
BillT : 3/13/2023 8:58 am : link
Not to mention it fits with both our needs and the FA market. There are a number of good players at ILB and DT but not so many at WR. It’s thankfully a really good fit for us.
You will need FA  
Lines of Scrimmage : 3/13/2023 9:07 am : link
how much is TBD. This variable is how well you draft. If your drafts stink then you have to correct mistakes.

The time period you mentioned were all out of poor drafts. Reese in 2016 because of horrific drafts (2011-2015) and you can make a strong case it goes back further than that.

Dave then had to spend to cover Reese's later drafts and created his own holes from his poor drafts. WR, corner, LB and OL. Baker, Toney and Hernandez are three big culprits here.

Schoen needs to first excel in the draft and limit the holes he creates. He will have to spend some though because of some of the failures of Dave. The draft won't be enough imv.



OUR view of free agency isn’t important.  
81_Great_Dane : 3/13/2023 9:55 am : link
At least, not unless Joe Schoen is posting on BBI.

Recency bias is probably coloring our view of a lot of things. Schoen, not so much.

We Giants fans have PTSD about a lot of things. Jason Sehorn’s injury, drafting Dave Brown, drafting Ron Dayne, signing Solder and Golladay…
An honest debate without resorting to name-calling or personal attacks  
Jim in Tampa : 3/13/2023 9:55 am : link
That's easy when discussing player acquisition (as in, should we trade for player X or draft player Y) because those are hypothetical discussions of players who are not yet Giants. No one is emotionally involved in those players yet.

I think most of the personal attacks on BBI come when a poster is critical of a Giants player, especially a player as polarizing as Daniel Jones.
I don't see many big ticket options  
JonC : 3/13/2023 10:01 am : link
that are smart.

Hopkins isn't likely, he looks to be declining and the PED question is following him around.
The free agent market isn't robust...  
bw in dc : 3/13/2023 10:14 am : link
this year with top tier talent pretty much across all positions. So, the key should be to not overspend on available talent just because we need to fill holes. Be sensible and smart.

I'd like to add more picks by trading down or unloading some of our players. In other words, I'd like to try to thread that needle of getting more talent/upside and younger at the same time.
RE: I've always been a  
.McL. : 3/13/2023 10:15 am : link
In comment 16061474 Biteymax22 said:
Quote:
"Build through the draft, extend your core players and only spend big when you think you have a shot at the SB" advocate. I was like that well before Reese and Gettleman turned free agency into an annual last ditch effort at keeping their jobs.

I'm hoping we plug holes with moderate priced players on favorable contracts and don't hesitate to draft over them.

We're still building and I hope that isn't a lost fact.

+1
We are not on the precipice of a Superbowl yet
While . . .  
dschwarz in westchester : 3/13/2023 10:33 am : link
. . . not always the case, the 'reasonable discussions on reasonable topics' posts are the ones that keep me coming back to BBI after all these years. The 'enraged lunatics flinging poop at one another' threads are the ones that keep me from posting and make me wonder if the internet was such a good idea in the first place.

More on topic - I think everyone agrees that it's safer to hunt for mid-level value than 'swing for the fences' FA signees. But no all solutions fit all problems; it comes down to who's available, for what price, and which spots do the Giants plan to use the draft for and which FA.

Example A - Cornerback. The Giants have 1 very good corner (Jackson). They have several OK Corners (Moreau, Holmes, Flott, Robinson) of various age/experience. Signing a 'depth FA' at CB doesn't make a ton of sense in this scenario as they won't replace Jackson and the depth guy is unlikely to move the needle against the other guys they have on the roster. So for CB they either want a starter opposite Jackson or they want a young draft pick with a lot of upside to develop into a starter (IMHO).

Example B - ILB. The Giants really don't have any young players or high end starters and spent all of last year trying to get by with waiver wire guys, street FAs, etc. At ILB, signing 2-3 mid level guys makes a ton more sense than trying to sign one 'top of the market' guy as almost anyone they sign/draft is likely to get playing time immediately.
I don’t know what ‘recency bias’ means but I’ll offer my view as a  
Spider56 : 3/13/2023 11:42 am : link
certified DH … the variables change each year.

CB, WR, and ER are expensive to sign, priority would be the draft.
ILB, TE and DL can usually be had at reasonable prices in FA.
RB and OL are obviously cheaper to draft but serviceable guys can be found in FA too.

I think JS and Dabs will prioritize ‘known’ guys. Dabs and Wink have been in the league a long time and will have guys they know can do s job and fit in.

The coaching , front office skill and chemistry are what’s been lacking here for s long time.
Klaatu  
allstarjim : 3/13/2023 12:13 pm : link
Quote:
What does matter is that it shows you can have an honest debate on BBI without resorting to name-calling or personal attacks. Sure, things do get heated at times, but we should all strive to can the vitriol and maintain a decent level of decorum.


Amen, brother.
yes  
djm : 3/13/2023 1:48 pm : link
KNick fans got the vapors when Brunson was signed to a mid level kind of big contract. Now he's one of the biggest bargains in pro sports.

NYG fans were and still are terrified that Jones was signed to what amounts to a TWO year deal. They lost their shit when BArkley was signed to a ONE year deal.

Fans are scared of the big contract. It's a pretty irrational fear even if team/roster budgets do matter. You still have to stop with this grass is greener take on every single deal that scares someone.

Even Nate Solder--yea he sucked after his first year. YEa he was a bad deal here. But can anyone guarantee me that the Giants are noticably better if they don't sign Solder? Nope, you can't. More than likely the Giants would have signed some other cheaper and equally bad tackle and then spend the remaining X amount of money on some decent player and ok fine, we win one more game each season from 18-22...yay for us.

Feel free to parse my words so it says I liked the Solder signing and Cap budgets don't matter.
Signing a big time player in FA always carries risk  
djm : 3/13/2023 1:54 pm : link
but it doesn't have to destroy the team's chances or be this terrifying anchor that so many dread. It can just be a subpar player who is making big money.

IF we're well coached these next 5-10 years as we hope and expect, I guarantee you we won't be lamenting the big bad contract unless injury hits, and that can happen to anyone.

Good coaching (usually) means better cohesion with the front office and a better clearer vision with the front office. And that means more cohesive and better drafting. And that means less reliance on FA. Also means better more detailed forays into FA. Better collegiate scouting and better vet FA scouting.

FA deals were fine under Coughlin. We were bad with everyone else. We will be fine under Daboll and Schoen who seem to have even better synergy with each other than Coughlin/Reese/Accorsi ever had.

We thought Judge was the goods. He was a disaster and obviously had a big hand in FA mistakes like Galladay and probably many more.
djm is correct  
RollBlue : 3/13/2023 2:38 pm : link
most here keep whining about GMs not nailing every draft. None of them do - just look at NE for the most part. Good coaching is a necessity in football - college and the NFL.

You can't win 10 games in the NFL with a crap roster, which most people thought we had this year. Enter a good coaching staff, and it's not as bac as thought.

2022 is the first year we've had a good coach in 10 years, as TC was clearly in decline at the end.
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