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Jackson turns down 3/133 fully guaranteed

j_rud : 3/14/2023 3:10 pm
Per NFLN. I'm all for these guys holding ownership over a barrel but I'm not sure what he's trying to do here...

Thoughts?
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Generation Group for Greed.  
Spider56 : 3/14/2023 3:59 pm : link
Add nearly 10% to the value of each deal if he doesn’t have an agent and he still wants more ...is it even possible to spend that much money ( less taxes) over let’s say 2-3 generations. Crazy, crazy, crazy.
...  
christian : 3/14/2023 4:00 pm : link
That's actually a pretty good deal for Jackson.

On the three-year tag plan, Baltimore controls his rights for 32.5 + 40 + 56 = 128.5M

They effectively offered him more guaranteed money and no more years than what 3 tags is worth.

He should want to get to UFA in 3 years.
RE: ...  
UConn4523 : 3/14/2023 4:21 pm : link
In comment 16063845 christian said:
Quote:
That's actually a pretty good deal for Jackson.

On the three-year tag plan, Baltimore controls his rights for 32.5 + 40 + 56 = 128.5M

They effectively offered him more guaranteed money and no more years than what 3 tags is worth.

He should want to get to UFA in 3 years.


I would agree but the way I see it, and if I was him is this - most big mega deals for QBs are all seeing the first 3 years guaranteed anyway because they signed 5+ year deals and likely play out the contract, or have it restructured later for more money.

My best guess is that he’s off the fully guaranteed long term deal but wants more years than 3 fully guaranteed - something like a 5 year deal for $220m with $180m guaranteed or something along those lines.
RE: RE: ...  
christian : 3/14/2023 4:38 pm : link
In comment 16063882 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16063845 christian said:


Quote:


That's actually a pretty good deal for Jackson.

On the three-year tag plan, Baltimore controls his rights for 32.5 + 40 + 56 = 128.5M

They effectively offered him more guaranteed money and no more years than what 3 tags is worth.

He should want to get to UFA in 3 years.



I would agree but the way I see it, and if I was him is this - most big mega deals for QBs are all seeing the first 3 years guaranteed anyway because they signed 5+ year deals and likely play out the contract, or have it restructured later for more money.

My best guess is that he’s off the fully guaranteed long term deal but wants more years than 3 fully guaranteed - something like a 5 year deal for $220m with $180m guaranteed or something along those lines.


The give and trade in those arrangements is the team gives guaranteed money in exchange for below market compensation in the out years.

I understand the bird in hand element of it, but if I were his representative I wouldn't even take 5/220M at 180M guaranteed.

That's essentially 4 years guaranteed at 45M AAV, and a bonus option year thrown in for free at 40M. That option year would need to be at least market pay so 50+.
I don't believe this is true.  
FStubbs : 3/14/2023 4:40 pm : link
Jackson would sign that in a heartbeat.

They may have offered 3/133 but there's no way it was fully guaranteed.
RE: He BEEN turned that down  
BigBlueShock : 3/14/2023 4:47 pm : link
In comment 16063761 blueblood said:
Quote:
that aint new

Huh? “He BEEN turned that down”?
RE: I don't believe this is true.  
section125 : 3/14/2023 4:48 pm : link
In comment 16063926 FStubbs said:
Quote:
Jackson would sign that in a heartbeat.

They may have offered 3/133 but there's no way it was fully guaranteed.


Wasn't the original deal something like 5 yrs/$230 mill and $130 guaranteed. In other words, the Ravens removed two years and $100 mill of non guaranteed money. No wonder he turned it down, it is basically what he turned own already, except he can actually walk after 3 years with this one.
Jackson tweet  
jestersdead : 3/14/2023 4:50 pm : link
Quote:
Lamar Jackson
@Lj_era8
133/3years fully guaranteed😒 but I need a agent? 🤣🤦🏾‍♂️
12:38 PM · Mar 14, 2023

RE: I don't believe this is true.  
UConn4523 : 3/14/2023 4:51 pm : link
In comment 16063926 FStubbs said:
Quote:
Jackson would sign that in a heartbeat.

They may have offered 3/133 but there's no way it was fully guaranteed.


I don’t agree. Look at any top QB deal - they are all 5+ years and regardless of guarantees they will all see those first 3 years unless they suffer a horrific injury and can no longer play at all. There’s nuances when you talk about up front bonuses and such the cap dead cap is usually far too large to cut within 3 years. Just look at the Mahomes/Allen deals, etc.
Christian  
UConn4523 : 3/14/2023 4:52 pm : link
I agree, was just using hypotheticals. He’s clearly at $50m+ with $150-$200m guaranteed.
RE: ...  
Thegratefulhead : 3/14/2023 4:53 pm : link
In comment 16063845 christian said:
Quote:
That's actually a pretty good deal for Jackson.

On the three-year tag plan, Baltimore controls his rights for 32.5 + 40 + 56 = 128.5M

They effectively offered him more guaranteed money and no more years than what 3 tags is worth.

He should want to get to UFA in 3 years.
It is a pretty good deal, I would try to get a little more, I don't think he has to sign that right away. I bet he is close.
RE: Generation Group for Greed.  
djm : 3/14/2023 5:32 pm : link
In comment 16063841 Spider56 said:
Quote:
Add nearly 10% to the value of each deal if he doesn’t have an agent and he still wants more ...is it even possible to spend that much money ( less taxes) over let’s say 2-3 generations. Crazy, crazy, crazy.


Yes clearly this younger generation is greedier than prior generations.

He’s not worth it  
WillVAB : 3/14/2023 5:33 pm : link
It’s in the Ravens best interest to move on.
He is not going to  
Amtoft : 3/14/2023 5:34 pm : link
sign anything until he has a chance to get his 5/250 fully guaranteed. He can't talk to other teams until Wednesday.
We can talk about guarantees and structure, but I  
Peter from NH (formerly CT) : 3/14/2023 5:43 pm : link
Suspect this is more ego driven than anything else. He thinks he’s better than Watson and should be paid more. With the guarantee. I don’t see it, but I also thought the Watson contract was absurd.

This is going to end ugly. Maybe really ugly.
No sane team is guaranteeing much more than  
LauderdaleMatty : 3/14/2023 5:47 pm : link
That. He's a singular talent but that talent is based upon him staying healthy. Which is nearly impossible to guarantee w his style and build over the next 5 years. And they're what he seems to want. A 5 year guarantee. So sorry. There's only one a franchise that dumb. And they have Watson
RE: No sane team is guaranteeing much more than  
Spiciest Memelord : 3/14/2023 6:31 pm : link
In comment 16064055 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
That. He's a singular talent but that talent is based upon him staying healthy. Which is nearly impossible to guarantee w his style and build over the next 5 years. And they're what he seems to want. A 5 year guarantee. So sorry. There's only one a franchise that dumb. And they have Watson


There's the Jets, and Douglas and Saleh are desperate to cover up for their blunder with Milf Hunter.
I'm not paying him that - over rating himself  
PatersonPlank : 3/14/2023 8:47 pm : link
.
Better take it  
ghost718 : 3/14/2023 9:00 pm : link
In 3 years you could be in the flag football league

and that's a 3 year,13 thousand dollar deal
No agent would let him  
ajr2456 : 3/14/2023 9:09 pm : link
Take that deal.
Contracts like this have big guarantees kicking in during years  
cosmicj : 3/14/2023 9:11 pm : link
2 or 3. 3 years is not enough.
This will never work out  
AG5686 : 3/14/2023 10:03 pm : link
Too much bad blood and it will not end well
Lamar will never play another down for Baltimore.
I've been saying it for months now.
He will sit out rather than play on the tag..eventually he will force them to trade him
But this process will take months
RE: No agent would let him  
christian : 3/14/2023 10:31 pm : link
In comment 16064304 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
Take that deal.


Philosophically it's not a bad deal, if you suspend the belief there is a 5 year fully guaranteed deal out there.

If I were advising him, I'd say get the 2nd most fully guaranteed dollars ever, and get it on a 3 year deal.

Short of a career ending injury, the worst outcome is giving a team option years at below market rate.

I think the worst contract for him is a Russell Wilson deal.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/15/2023 6:20 am : link
This is becoming an example of why having an agent is good.
133 mil guaranteed for 3 years or until he’s 29.  
Big Blue '56 : 3/15/2023 6:29 am : link
Enough to luve comfortably for countless lifetimes. Yeah, but the moron, who is succumbing more and more to injury and has shown his team commitment, needs more..

luve=live  
Big Blue '56 : 3/15/2023 6:29 am : link
.
He needs an agent badly  
ZogZerg : 3/15/2023 6:43 am : link
What a mess.
RE: 133 mil guaranteed for 3 years or until he’s 29.  
UConn4523 : 3/15/2023 6:55 am : link
In comment 16064504 Big Blue '56 said:
Quote:
Enough to luve comfortably for countless lifetimes. Yeah, but the moron, who is succumbing more and more to injury and has shown his team commitment, needs more..


Why is he a moron for thinking the offer is bullshit? I don’t get these kind of comments. Self representing isn’t wise but no criticism of the Ravens here at all?
RE: RE: 133 mil guaranteed for 3 years or until he’s 29.  
Big Blue '56 : 3/15/2023 6:59 am : link
In comment 16064510 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16064504 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


Enough to luve comfortably for countless lifetimes. Yeah, but the moron, who is succumbing more and more to injury and has shown his team commitment, needs more..




Why is he a moron for thinking the offer is bullshit? I don’t get these kind of comments. Self representing isn’t wise but no criticism of the Ravens here at all?


Because 133 million GUARANTEED is more than enough given his recent injury history and how he made his business decision not to show for the playoffs. So yes, imo, he’s a fucking moron!
So if he gets a deal for a lot more in the coming days/weeks  
UConn4523 : 3/15/2023 7:02 am : link
is he still a moron? Acting offended when athletes try to get a better deal is really strange, they all do it.
RE: RE: 133 mil guaranteed for 3 years or until he’s 29.  
section125 : 3/15/2023 7:05 am : link
In comment 16064510 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16064504 Big Blue '56 said:


Quote:


Enough to luve comfortably for countless lifetimes. Yeah, but the moron, who is succumbing more and more to injury and has shown his team commitment, needs more..




Why is he a moron for thinking the offer is bullshit? I don’t get these kind of comments. Self representing isn’t wise but no criticism of the Ravens here at all?


What would you criticize the Ravens for? Not throwing money away?

I wouldn't call him a moron for wanting guaranteed money, but he is not getting what he wants. Unfortunately for him he won that MVP early, and even though he has not been that good again, he wants to be paid like a perennial MVP. He has basically been in decline since 2019 in nearly every category. Yes, lack of talent around him has hurt. No argument.
But, I cannot blame him for wanting either a VG contract or a better supporting group.
RE: So if he gets a deal for a lot more in the coming days/weeks  
Big Blue '56 : 3/15/2023 7:06 am : link
In comment 16064516 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
is he still a moron? Acting offended when athletes try to get a better deal is really strange, they all do it.


Not offended in the least with Athletes trying to get all they can, as they should. Just HIM, given how he abandoned his team as he did, so he should be thankful they want to pay him even that.
And yes, he’s now just a good QB,  
Big Blue '56 : 3/15/2023 7:12 am : link
coming off that outlier MVP year..Not in Burrow’s and Allen’s ELITE class..
Section  
UConn4523 : 3/15/2023 7:16 am : link
there could be a number of things. Failure to get playmakers, lowball offer compared to the top end deals, and any number of things that have gone wrong behind the scenes.

Questioning his dedication/commitment during the playoffs is fair. But there’s two sides to every story, Ravens aren’t blameless. If he had an agent and held out like this, no one would care, it would be “normal”. This self representing thing really has people making strange comments - good for him if he thinks it will work. We will see what happens.
RE: Section  
Big Blue '56 : 3/15/2023 7:26 am : link
In comment 16064525 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
there could be a number of things. Failure to get playmakers, lowball offer compared to the top end deals, and any number of things that have gone wrong behind the scenes.

Questioning his dedication/commitment during the playoffs is fair. But there’s two sides to every story, Ravens aren’t blameless. If he had an agent and held out like this, no one would care, it would be “normal”. This self representing thing really has people making strange comments - good for him if he thinks it will work. We will see what happens.


Fair comments and If he wants to rep himself, go for it. I don’t care. Perhaps moron was not an apt word. I prefer Jackass, given the playoff “business decision” that fucked his team royally..I wouldn’twant this guy leading my team, but that’s just me.
RE: Section  
section125 : 3/15/2023 7:32 am : link
In comment 16064525 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
there could be a number of things. Failure to get playmakers, lowball offer compared to the top end deals, and any number of things that have gone wrong behind the scenes.

Questioning his dedication/commitment during the playoffs is fair. But there’s two sides to every story, Ravens aren’t blameless. If he had an agent and held out like this, no one would care, it would be “normal”. This self representing thing really has people making strange comments - good for him if he thinks it will work. We will see what happens.


The Ravens have never had great talent around him , true.

I do not know how you call $133 mill/3 yr deal low ball - it is a VG starting point - and then he gets to work on another contract after three years at age 29. He was offered 5 yrs/$230 mill with $130 gtd and turned it down - that is not low ball. You have to throw Watson deal out - that is an impeccilik contract. The Ravens are a very well run org. They will not sell the future to satisfy a QB that is slowly declining because of his playing style. He clearly will not play on the tag, and I would not blame him at all.

Starting today, he can go out and see what other teams think of him. Maybe Atlanta goes for him. Do you see anyone offering him 5 yrs/$230 mill fully guaranteed - even if he was a total FA without the tag?
RE: RE: Section  
Big Blue '56 : 3/15/2023 7:34 am : link
In comment 16064532 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16064525 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


there could be a number of things. Failure to get playmakers, lowball offer compared to the top end deals, and any number of things that have gone wrong behind the scenes.

Questioning his dedication/commitment during the playoffs is fair. But there’s two sides to every story, Ravens aren’t blameless. If he had an agent and held out like this, no one would care, it would be “normal”. This self representing thing really has people making strange comments - good for him if he thinks it will work. We will see what happens.



The Ravens have never had great talent around him , true.

I do not know how you call $133 mill/3 yr deal low ball - it is a VG starting point - and then he gets to work on another contract after three years at age 29. He was offered 5 yrs/$230 mill with $130 gtd and turned it down - that is not low ball. You have to throw Watson deal out - that is an impeccilik contract. The Ravens are a very well run org. They will not sell the future to satisfy a QB that is slowly declining because of his playing style. He clearly will not play on the tag, and I would not blame him at all.

Starting today, he can go out and see what other teams think of him. Maybe Atlanta goes for him. Do you see anyone offering him 5 yrs/$230 mill fully guaranteed - even if he was a total FA without the tag?


Not with, as you say, declining skills and recent injury history
RE: He needs an agent badly  
No1MDGiantsFan : 3/15/2023 7:36 am : link
In comment 16064507 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
What a mess.


He does, he’s not equipped to handle these negotiations AT ALL. There are so many reasons why he’s not getting a deal right now but that’s a huge one.

As mentioned, Ravens should move on. He’s not worth a fraction of what he wants
Jackson is an immense talent  
AnnapolisMike : 3/15/2023 7:44 am : link
But his injury history lately, seeming lack of commitment to his teammates really disqualify him from a monster contract. I would not want this guy anywhere around my team and most of the Ravens fans I know are tired of this sideshow and are ready to move on.

I think the Ravens are ready to move on too...and just want to get some value out of an asset they control.
Section  
UConn4523 : 3/15/2023 7:55 am : link
he wants a long term commitment with high guarantees. Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Murray, Watson, and Rodgers all have more than $133m guaranteed in their deals. Dak and Stafford, just under $133m.

That’s 8 QBs, 1/4 of the league, at or above the Ravens offer. When you asses that group some clearly deserve it, some don’t, and Jackson falls somewhere in the middle, IMO. He would 100% get it on the open market, and that’s what he wants. The question now will be can he workout a deal with the Panthers, Texans, Falcons, etc and are they comfortable losing the picks.
RE: RE: Section  
bw in dc : 3/15/2023 7:59 am : link
In comment 16064532 section125 said:
Quote:


Starting today, he can go out and see what other teams think of him. Maybe Atlanta goes for him. Do you see anyone offering him 5 yrs/$230 mill fully guaranteed - even if he was a total FA without the tag?


The other question is which owner(s) have the ability to put all of that guaranteed money up front into escrow, a CBA requirement. The NFL is the only professional league that has this wrinkle. So, you can see why fully guaranteed contracts are so rare. They require a ton of cash.
RE: I guess Ryan Clark can STFU  
Big Blue Blogger : 3/15/2023 8:07 am : link
Tom in NY said:
Quote:
Jackson officially turned down substantially more than Jones signed for. I don't want to hear him whine about it anymore.

I don't think anything is "official" until a contract is signed and filed with the League and the Union. Also, is 3/$133MM fully guaranteed really that much more than Jones? DJ will get a minimum of $82MM over 2023 and 2024, and he'll probably add at least a few million in incentives and escalators. So if you look at his contract as a guaranteed two-year deal - which it arguably is, with pain to exit in Year 3 - the AAV is very close to Jackson's $44MM. The analysis for 2025 is more complicated; a lot hinges on the escalators and when the partial salary guarantee kicks in. (I've seen conflicting reports on that.)

Still, if one starts, as Clark and most pundits do, from the assumption that Jackson is in a higher echelon than Jones, the difference in compensation should probably be bigger. I'm not endorsing that assumption or rejecting it. Jackson's body of work is undeniably more impressive. As of 2023, Jones has narrowed the gap, and he has allayed some injury concerns while Jackson's have become more pronounced.

As for the lingering suspicion that white QBs are favored in the broader market, Watson's deal seems to offer something of a counterpoint. The Giants might remain somewhat suspect, though. A Black quarterback has started exactly one game in the team's history. The coach and GM were fired the next day. As obsessive fans, we know every detail of the context for those firings. Most observers just see the timeline around Geno's one start. The Maras may be completely color-blind, but if you were looking for a franchise that walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, the Giants would be a duck, at least where QBs are concerned.
RE: Section  
section125 : 3/15/2023 8:07 am : link
In comment 16064547 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
he wants a long term commitment with high guarantees. Mahomes, Allen, Wilson, Murray, Watson, and Rodgers all have more than $133m guaranteed in their deals. Dak and Stafford, just under $133m.

That’s 8 QBs, 1/4 of the league, at or above the Ravens offer. When you asses that group some clearly deserve it, some don’t, and Jackson falls somewhere in the middle, IMO. He would 100% get it on the open market, and that’s what he wants. The question now will be can he workout a deal with the Panthers, Texans, Falcons, etc and are they comfortable losing the picks.


FWIW, I did find this on The Sporting News. This is the guaranteed money contracts for the below QB. You made a good point. Lamar(in his mind) should be somewhere in there between Mahomes and Murray. I see why he would want to be in the Murray money area. He is better than Murray.


1 Deshaun Watson $230 million
2 Kyler Murray $189.5 million
3 Russell Wilson $165 million
4 Aaron Rodgers $150.8 million
5 Josh Allen $150 million
6 Patrick Mahomes $141.5 million
7 Matthew Stafford$130 million
8 Dak Prescott $126 million
9 Jared Goff $110 million
10 Carson Wentz $108 million



Will any team make an offer after 4pm today?  
ZogZerg : 3/15/2023 8:15 am : link
I have a feeling that Lamar may be sitting out the season.
You’ll be adding Hurts and Herbert to that list soon  
UConn4523 : 3/15/2023 8:18 am : link
and in another year or so, Lawrence.

$150m+ seems to be the going rate for top tier franchise QBs moving forward. The ravens know that, Jackson knows that, and we all do too. The only odd thing is the lack of representation but that’s about it. He wants what everyone else is getting, good for him for fighting for it.
RE: You’ll be adding Hurts and Herbert to that list soon  
section125 : 3/15/2023 8:20 am : link
In comment 16064567 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
and in another year or so, Lawrence.

$150m+ seems to be the going rate for top tier franchise QBs moving forward. The ravens know that, Jackson knows that, and we all do too. The only odd thing is the lack of representation but that’s about it. He wants what everyone else is getting, good for him for fighting for it.


So in reality, Jones deal is cheap...
Yes, it’s relatively cheap for a legit starting QB  
UConn4523 : 3/15/2023 8:28 am : link
but I think it’s appropriate for his skill level which is below most of the guys in the list above.
Put me in the category  
Kmed6000 : 3/15/2023 10:01 am : link
of, that's not a good contract for him to sign. He saw Watson get 5 years and 233M gtd. If Burrow was a FA right now, what would he get? In his mind, he's in that upper echelon of QB's so he wants that money. Lamar is def worth 44m a year(I wouldn't give it to him) considering the market, but he wants 5 years and 230M gtd. Therefore 3/133 isn't going to cut it.
Ohh I forgot Burrow  
UConn4523 : 3/15/2023 10:09 am : link
add him to the above too. That’s damn near 1/3 I’d the league getting around $133m or more guaranteed.
Intangibles  
Dr. D : 3/15/2023 11:12 am : link
This shituation, to me indicates multiple intangibles that are important in a potential SB winning QB, that are not possessed by Jackson.

Plenty of talented athletic QBs have failed bc of not being too smart. Representing yourself in a situation like this (why? To save a few %?) is beyond stupid.
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