Mike Garafolo
@MikeGarafolo
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1m
The #Giants have agreed to terms to re-sign WR Darius Slayton, sources tell me and
@RapSheet
. The 2019 fifth-round pick returns to East Rutherford after a bounce-back season (46 catches for 724 yards).
The Darius Slayton vs. Darius Slay matchup stays in the NFC East after all.
Yup my bad the total practical cost of Waller and Slayton for 2023 is probably closer to 18.5M guaranteed vs. the 14M Sutton full guaranteed.
In terms of Sutton vs. Slayton, per PFR:
Career Slayton: 55% catch rate, 6.8% drop rate, 15YPR, 8.3YPT
Career Sutton: 57% catch rate, 5.9% drop rate, 14.6YPR, 8.3YPT
Sutton and Slayton on a per target basis are pretty similar.
This is the point I've made over and over. The difference between Slayton and a player like Sutton isn't so much reliability, it is touches.
Slayton is not versatile enough to command the targets a player like Waller, Gallup, or Sutton. And that's why he makes 6M a year and they make 11-15M.
All told, I think the Giants come out on the plus end with Slayton and Waller at 18.5M vs. Sutton.
That’s the Kenny Goldiday version of a contact for a guy you know is a #4 WR
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Max value of $16.5 m. Right what I said he’d get when everyone called him a minimum player
Awful deal and I don't get it. I really don't get it. He's what? At BEST a #3/#4 WR?
Slayton has almost 3 times the yds and they started the same time. 3 times the TDs, while we're at it.
people just say shit
But what do I know?
I'd like to know what your definition of "production" is?
Congratulations. You won BBI's shit take of the day.
If he is anything more than a 5th or 6th WR we are in trouble.
you have zero basis in reality. None. Delusional.
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by posters who keep saying that Slayton was "productive."
He only had 46 catches and two touchdowns. That's not productive for a guy who started 11 games.
Not sure what there is to be floored about? You can recognize that a guy has some value while understanding that he’s not a great player. Look at the totality of his time here and his production compared to where he was drafted.
4 days.
Less than 2, if you want to be really technical.
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waller's base is 11m + 1.5m in roster/workout bonuses.
Yup my bad the total practical cost of Waller and Slayton for 2023 is probably closer to 18.5M guaranteed vs. the 14M Sutton full guaranteed.
In terms of Sutton vs. Slayton, per PFR:
Career Slayton: 55% catch rate, 6.8% drop rate, 15YPR, 8.3YPT
Career Sutton: 57% catch rate, 5.9% drop rate, 14.6YPR, 8.3YPT
Sutton and Slayton on a per target basis are pretty similar.
This is the point I've made over and over. The difference between Slayton and a player like Sutton isn't so much reliability, it is touches.
Slayton is not versatile enough to command the targets a player like Waller, Gallup, or Sutton. And that's why he makes 6M a year and they make 11-15M.
All told, I think the Giants come out on the plus end with Slayton and Waller at 18.5M vs. Sutton.
PFR has slayton with 13 drops/129 targets the past 2 years, so same 1 in every 10 targets as PFF. they have sutton with 12 drops/207 targets, so roughly 1 in every 17 targets and pretty different than pff. they have waller with 8 drops in 136 so exactly same 1/17 as sutton. slayton also has 3 fumbles in the last 2 years (1 for every 40 targets/20 touches), whereas sutton and waller both have 0.
So to your bolded point and probably no surprise to you i disagree, the mistakes slayton makes are the main reason why he is a 70 target player instead of a 100-120 target player. those 30-50 extra targets are coming with extra mistakes in the literal form of 2 or 3 extra drops and 1 extra fumble. it's also why i think hodgins was clearly the best WR on the team last year once he emerged (which all the advanced metrics agree). in 42 targets he had 1 fumble but 0 drops. by rate slayton would have had 4 drops and fewer catches if he got those targets - which in an offense without a ton of margin for error is a big deal.
adding a more reliable weapon to go with hodgins whether it was hopkins, sutton, or waller was both necessary and separate from whether or not it was also worth retaining slayton. any of those 3 were likely to get restructured exactly as waller was today. the slayton question is more of a comparison against the alternative UFAs per $. with slayton and campbell they bet a combined 10m aav on upside over more dependable options. we all obviously hope that bet works out. i dont mind it but i think it's smarter to be clear eyed at the risk than otherwise.
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And the ADOTs of Juju and Meyers I’m guessing are a lot lower. Slayton needs to improve his drops but comparing his drop rate to Juju who catches most passes well within the sticks isn’t even close to apples to apples.
If Slayton were a 26 year old with sub 4.4 and a high ADOT and low drop rate he’d have gotten PAID. Also if you look at the high drop % players you see a theme on the type of WRs they are.
you are correct about adot/style - slayton selling point is that he's a more explosive downfield receiver (15 ypc).
slayton adot = 12.5
juju adot = 7.3
meyers = 9.9
but as u see meyers' adot wasn't too far behind, and neither was his ypc at 12.0. he had 14 plays 20+ and that was actually more than slayton's 12. and more tds.
that's all why meyers got basically 2x what slayton got. so im not splitting the atom pointing that out, just saying when factoring in cambell's 4-5m this year, i think id have preferred to take the better player. slayton is more of a downfield wide guy but he hasn't produced tds downfield as much as you'd expect since his rookie year. i think meyers is a pretty good bet to repeat what he's been the last couple years.
Darius Slayton was 5th in the NFL in yards per catch last year. That tracks with his career avg as well.
5th in the NFL in YPC. That ain't nothing.
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On a good offensive team, to give him a 2 year deal that you can't cut him year one without very little dead money is a bad deal.
If he is anything more than a 5th or 6th WR we are in trouble.
you can't name ONE team in the NFL who 5 or 6 WR has 750+ yds a year , not just one year but 3 of the last 4
you have zero basis in reality. None. Delusional.
Because there aren't any. In fact there are only a handful of teams with a #2 with that kind of production. Most don't have it. Our problem is not Slayton. It's that we don't have a #1. If Slayton were our #2 or #3, along with Waller as TE, we'd be golden.
Minny's #2: Thielen - 716 yards and 6 TDs
Buffalo's #2: Gabe Davis - 836 yards and 7 TDs
Dallas's #2: Brown: 555 yards and 3 TDs
Chargers #2: Josh Plamer: 769 yards and 3 TDs
KC's #3: Valdes-Scantling: 687 yards and 2 TDs
Miami's #3: Sherfield: 417 yards and 2 TDs
Slayton is at least easily a very good #3 and would be better than many other #2's if he had a solid #1 opposite him. That's just the NFL reality.
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In comment 16067673 AcesUp said:
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And the ADOTs of Juju and Meyers I’m guessing are a lot lower. Slayton needs to improve his drops but comparing his drop rate to Juju who catches most passes well within the sticks isn’t even close to apples to apples.
If Slayton were a 26 year old with sub 4.4 and a high ADOT and low drop rate he’d have gotten PAID. Also if you look at the high drop % players you see a theme on the type of WRs they are.
you are correct about adot/style - slayton selling point is that he's a more explosive downfield receiver (15 ypc).
slayton adot = 12.5
juju adot = 7.3
meyers = 9.9
but as u see meyers' adot wasn't too far behind, and neither was his ypc at 12.0. he had 14 plays 20+ and that was actually more than slayton's 12. and more tds.
that's all why meyers got basically 2x what slayton got. so im not splitting the atom pointing that out, just saying when factoring in cambell's 4-5m this year, i think id have preferred to take the better player. slayton is more of a downfield wide guy but he hasn't produced tds downfield as much as you'd expect since his rookie year. i think meyers is a pretty good bet to repeat what he's been the last couple years.
Darius Slayton was 5th in the NFL in yards per catch last year. That tracks with his career avg as well.
5th in the NFL in YPC. That ain't nothing.
correct, it's the upside they are betting on overcoming his other deficiencies. the deficiencies that had him on the bench/trade block/cutline to start the year after 2 months of preseason. my biggest gripe with slayton is dependability and since that's part of the team's mantra my guess is that was also their gripe when he was on the cutline.
Yup my bad the total practical cost of Waller and Slayton for 2023 is probably closer to 18.5M guaranteed vs. the 14M Sutton full guaranteed.
In terms of Sutton vs. Slayton, per PFR:
Career Slayton: 55% catch rate, 6.8% drop rate, 15YPR, 8.3YPT
Career Sutton: 57% catch rate, 5.9% drop rate, 14.6YPR, 8.3YPT
Sutton and Slayton on a per target basis are pretty similar.
This is the point I've made over and over. The difference between Slayton and a player like Sutton isn't so much reliability, it is touches.
Slayton is not versatile enough to command the targets a player like Waller, Gallup, or Sutton. And that's why he makes 6M a year and they make 11-15M.
All told, I think the Giants come out on the plus end with Slayton and Waller at 18.5M vs. Sutton.
PFR has slayton with 13 drops/129 targets the past 2 years, so same 1 in every 10 targets as PFF. they have sutton with 12 drops/207 targets, so roughly 1 in every 17 targets and pretty different than pff. they have waller with 8 drops in 136 so exactly same 1/17 as sutton. slayton also has 3 fumbles in the last 2 years (1 for every 40 targets/20 touches), whereas sutton and waller both have 0.
So to your bolded point and probably no surprise to you i disagree, the mistakes slayton makes are the main reason why he is a 70 target player instead of a 100-120 target player. those 30-50 extra targets are coming with extra mistakes in the literal form of 2 or 3 extra drops and 1 extra fumble. it's also why i think hodgins was clearly the best WR on the team last year once he emerged (which all the advanced metrics agree). in 42 targets he had 1 fumble but 0 drops. by rate slayton would have had 4 drops and fewer catches if he got those targets - which in an offense without a ton of margin for error is a big deal.
Why are you cutting the line at 2 years and not considering their career numbers?
To glean anything in the neighborhood of statistical significance and any hope of any predictive value two years of data isn't that interesting.
Those 30-50 extra targets would yield 250- 415 extra yards against the 4 year YPT number. In the abstract the staff would take that trade-off.
Slayton was on the field 75% or more the back half of the season. The staff is putting him in the position to have opportunities.
So in your line of thinking Slayton would be making the right reads, and getting open at a reasonable rate -- and Daniel Jones is choosing to not go his way because of the calculus that he'll drop the ball or fumble at higher rate?
That's a hell of a lot of processing power out there for Jones.
The more likely reality is Slayton isn't very versatile and doesn't get open in the ways needed to draw more targets.
if they wanted to get the ball to slayton more, they would have gotten the ball to slayton more. simple as that.
why use the last 2 years? because it's the most relevant sample size by far for the players in question.
Sutton tore his ACL in 2020 so he missed that entire year, and the last 2 years are his post-ACL numbers.
Waller was only available because of the injuries he's battled the last 2 years, which also impacted his performance when he was on the field. at his age and by his own admission those are legitimate concerns impacting his game. if they werent and he was doing what he was doing in 2019/2020 the last 2 years he'd still be a raider.
even when you're wrong you're right though, once your arguments start scraping the barrel to dodges re methodology flaws i should probably just ignore and not take the bait.
So cool, the staff is aces at scheming people open, and there is an order of operations in the reads.
If you think Darius Slayton is often open and in the right place, and the staff and Jones are choosing to not target him 30-50 more times because it'll lead to two more drops at the expense of hundreds of yards, you do you amigo!
So cool, the staff is aces at scheming people open, and there is an order of operations in the reads.
If you think Darius Slayton is often open and in the right place, and the staff and Jones are choosing to not target him 30-50 more times because it'll lead to two more drops at the expense of hundreds of yards, you do you amigo!
next gen stats had slayton:
67th percentile getting open
56th percentile yards after catch
30th percentile catching the ball
i think his speed created more separation than any other player they had last year, his run after the catch improved dramatically vs his first 3 years, and the numbers show that those qualities made him clearly the most explosive player they had (20+ plays, 40+ plays, ypc, next gen).
your contention seems to be the giants ignored all of that and just chose to not throw him the ball more. i think they had their reasons and they are pretty obvious.
now that love has signed for the literal same amount as slayton, i'd re-ask that hypothetical, which of those 2 players would you have chosen to bring back if it were up to you?