In this draft I think the value at other impact positions is just too good to go WR in the top 10. Also there will be trades and a possible 4 QBs taken in the top 10 alone.
Also there are no 'perfect' prototype WRs in this draft like Julio Jones or Megatron the type of guys that typically go in the top 10.
Last years 1st pick was Wilson and he went at 10 and is arguably better than any in this years draft.
Jeremiah is one of the few mocksters that has a WR going earlier at 11.
In the top 10-14 there is still so much value at the high impact positions (LT,CB,Edge,potentially QB and DL too) that it would be hard to see any of these WRs except maybe if someone loves JSN.
After that when you look at the mocks thats where you start to see these WRs generally start to go. Once you get to 19-20 often 1 or 2 more go before 25.
If we are really hoping for the WR round 1 and have a few of JSN, Addison, QJ, Hyatt or even Flowers really highly graded, the danger zone to me starts not to far off from our pick.
A 3rd rounder gets us to about 20 , a 4th roughly to 22 or 23.
Who are the main threats for the WR prior to our pick and is it worth spending a 3rd or 4th to move up?
If you're looking immediately ahead of us there are a bunch of teams that could go WR. It's a passing league and 3 WR sets are the norm.
Minnesota at 23 needs someone opposite Jefferson, especially with Thielen gone. Baltimore at 22 needs anything for Lamar. Seattle and Tampa both have 2 solid WRs, but Evans and Lockett are both getting older, and how much more money do you really want to commit there. That's 19 and 20.
I think the easier question is who clearly doesn't need a WR that early from 10-24. Looking quickly, I think the only really obvious answers are Philly at 10 (Brown, Smith, Goedert), the Jets at 13, and maybe LAC at 21 with Keenan, Williams, and Palmer (but even that is questionable with Keenan's age and health history).
As I have said, I wouldn't trade up for anyone in the first round. JSN is the hot name right now. Assuming he's healthy, he's the best WR in the draft IMO. But he only played three games last season. There would also likely be a bidding war for his services if he slipped to #20 that would drive up the price to trade for him. Some of these WRs also have pretty high drop rates.
The best move is likely to just stay put and let the draft come to us. We also don't need to force a WR pick at #25. Take the BPA. This team has a lot of holes, and there will be plenty of good WRs on day two.
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I would say also the Chargers, Baltimore, and Minnesota could also be players.
Hyatt, Tillman, Mims, Rice, Mingo, Downs are all good WR but may not be worth the 25th pick. Reaching in round 1 would be a mistake but moving up in round 2 while getting a CB, ER, LB or C in round 1 might be a better move.
Doesn't seem like there is any standout wideout to move heaven and earth for. This seems like a stand pat year, take the highest rated guy from WR, CB, Edge, DL available. I would hate to lose either 2nd or 3rd, one of those will probably be used for an IOL. This is a patience year. That all being said if they get to 22 and JSN is there (seems like Schoen and Daboll are fans- took him to dinner), they might want to gamble.
We know that they stress positional value in the premium rounds of the draft. Therefore, it is likely that the 1st 3 rounds we'll be premium positions . We saw this in action last year in the 1st 3 rounds when we took an Edge, an OT, a corner and wide receiver.
Right now, it certainly looks like our top needs remaining at the premium positions are CB and WR followed by Edge.
Giants could play it like this and this certainly seems in-line with something JS would do based on everything leading up until this point: Have a draft day trade lined up as a back up to whether they get their WR target or not.
Since CB in this draft is so loaded and deep they could choose to try and go WR round 1 unless the CB @25 is clear BPA and/or a tier higher on the value board than the other premium positions of need.
If they decide the CB is the clear BPA at 25.
Round 2 still has a number of interesting WR possibilities that have WR1 or close to WR1 ceilings. Tillman, Tyler Scott, Josh Downs (if he drops), Michael Wilson, Jayden Reed , Perry . If none high on our list for round 2 drop to 57, and they can't find a favorable trade to move up in rd 2, pull the trigger on the trade for a veteran WR. For instance, Jeudy for a 2 and a 4 or something like that.
They can also employ this fall back strategy round 1 if their target is the WR mainly and want a better higher end guy like Pittman or Aiyuk as their fallback option.
This type of approach increases NYGs chances of maximizing value for what they want to get most out of this draft. If they want a top CB and a top WR most and have a trade set up as a back up there is a very good chance we can come out of the top 2 rounds with 2 of 3 high caliber players at 3 premium positions: CB , WR and Edge.
The other option could be since a number of short list guys at WR and CB seem slated to go right between the 20-24 picks they could trade a 3rd to jump to about 19-20 or a 4th to about 22 or 23 and secure one of the remaining prospects who is clear BPA at one of the positions we want the most.
A lot of ways to go with this really. And I am trying to figure out who are the teams that are our biggest threats foe the WR if that could be truly our plan A
Hyatt, Tillman, Mims, Rice, Mingo, Downs are all good WR but may not be worth the 25th pick. Reaching in round 1 would be a mistake but moving up in round 2 while getting a CB, ER, LB or C in round 1 might be a better move.
I wouldn't be surprised if we take CB at 25 and trade up in rd 2 for WR.
If you're looking immediately ahead of us there are a bunch of teams that could go WR. It's a passing league and 3 WR sets are the norm.
Minnesota at 23 needs someone opposite Jefferson, especially with Thielen gone. Baltimore at 22 needs anything for Lamar. Seattle and Tampa both have 2 solid WRs, but Evans and Lockett are both getting older, and how much more money do you really want to commit there. That's 19 and 20.
I think the easier question is who clearly doesn't need a WR that early from 10-24. Looking quickly, I think the only really obvious answers are Philly at 10 (Brown, Smith, Goedert), the Jets at 13, and maybe LAC at 21 with Keenan, Williams, and Palmer (but even that is questionable with Keenan's age and health history).
Great post Manning. I think the Chargers with an older Keenan and both their WRs showing some signs of injury proneness are a high possibility for the WR.
I keep going back to if we only have lets say 3 WRs really highly graded of the top 5 (Hyatt, QJ, Addison, JSN, Flowers) and 2 are already gone by 17-18 that the only way we get the last one on our highest tier is via trade up. If Giants are adamant about getting that guy I could certainly see us pulling the trigger.
I’d hope Schoen drafts purely from a BPA over needs approach, because pretty much every position is a position of need anyway.
Denver isn't trading Jeudy for a two and a four. If they were willing to do so, then the deal likely would have been done before the trade deadline last year. Denver apparently wants at least a one, and maybe more. I don't see why they would lower their demands as the draft approaches.
I also don't see the Giants even considering trading up for anything but their first or second choices at WR, and even that would be very costly. Are they really willing to trade a two or a three and a four to move up for JSN, who hardly played last year, Flowers, or Addison, especially when so many excellent WRs will be available on day two? Anything is possible, but I certainly hope they don't. And why trade up for your third or fourth choice at any position? Doing so is just desperation.
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a WR.
Hyatt, Tillman, Mims, Rice, Mingo, Downs are all good WR but may not be worth the 25th pick. Reaching in round 1 would be a mistake but moving up in round 2 while getting a CB, ER, LB or C in round 1 might be a better move.
I wouldn't be surprised if we take CB at 25 and trade up in rd 2 for WR.
Great thinking. There is a decent grouping of guys in round 2. If they like their grade enough and don't think they are too far off from the guy or guys they can get in round 1, I absolutely think they could employ this strategy.
I would say also the Chargers, Baltimore, and Minnesota could also be players.
lol imagine if after all the years with Rodgers of not going WR in Rd 1 they draft one this year
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Could easily go WR. They have Christian Watson as their listed #1, with Doubs right behind him, and haven't done anything to address WR in free agency.
I would say also the Chargers, Baltimore, and Minnesota could also be players.
lol imagine if after all the years with Rodgers of not going WR in Rd 1 they draft one this year
that would be funny
As I said on a different thread, we don't have a board and don't have our own grades on these prospects, and we certainly don't have the Giants' board, so it's very hard to gauge the relative value of prospects or anticipate what they might do.
Darius Rush would be outstanding at number 57 and AT Perry, Xavier Hutchinson and Cedric Tillman are options at number 89. Perry and Hutchinson are really intriguing prospects. I like their game
Darius Rush would be outstanding at number 57 and AT Perry, Xavier Hutchinson and Cedric Tillman are options at number 89. Perry and Hutchinson are really intriguing prospects. I like their game
Schoen's pattern has leaned towards high impact positions in the early rounds and FA for the lower impact positions.
Biggest threats to take a pass catcher IMO:
Falcons
Bears
Titans
Texans (2nd pick)
Patriots
Steelers
Ravens
I think to guarantee ourselves one of these guys we would need to trade up to 15 or so.
Anyone know how most clubs look at the issue these days? I haven't analyzed what teams have been paying recently (outside of moves in the top 10 or so), but my sense is that they are all over the place.
Biggest threats to take a pass catcher IMO:
Falcons
Bears
Titans
Texans (2nd pick)
Patriots
Steelers
Ravens
I think to guarantee ourselves one of these guys we would need to trade up to 15 or so.
I agree with most of this list except the first two. Can't see Atlanta investing yet another premium pick at a pass catcher after going Pitts at 4 overall in 2021, and London at 8 overall in 2022 all while being an extremely run oriented team thanks to the HC scheme. I think they'll be looking in the trenches or on D.
Chicago WR room seems full with the acquisition of DJ Moore, last year's midseason acquisition of Claypool, and up and coming Mooney.
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That we would have to trade up to get one of the big 4, though I really like Hyatt.
Biggest threats to take a pass catcher IMO:
Falcons
Bears
Titans
Texans (2nd pick)
Patriots
Steelers
Ravens
I think to guarantee ourselves one of these guys we would need to trade up to 15 or so.
I agree with most of this list except the first two. Can't see Atlanta investing yet another premium pick at a pass catcher after going Pitts at 4 overall in 2021, and London at 8 overall in 2022 all while being an extremely run oriented team thanks to the HC scheme. I think they'll be looking in the trenches or on D.
Chicago WR room seems full with the acquisition of DJ Moore, last year's midseason acquisition of Claypool, and up and coming Mooney.
Agreed. My list would be:
Titans
Texans (2nd pick)
Patriots
Steelers
Ravens
Chargers (Allen older injury prone, Williams kinda injury prone and a bit one dimensional)
Packers too- although history tells us they won’t no matter how big of a need it is.
Titans IMO have so many holes and spent a first on a guy last year. Clearly don’t value the position too much since they didn’t want to pay Brown (granted that was a different GM with Vrabel)
Bears- have invested quite a bit in Moore, Claypool. Also still have Mooney who is a good 3rd guy. And Venus Jones who they selected early last year.
Pats - possible but Hopkins could end up there. Signed Juju, still have Parker/Bourne and Tyquan Thornton (2nd rounder last year)
Steelers - I highly doubt this. They really need a CB and OT. Have 2 solid starters already at WR
Chargers- I see them more likely to go after Kincaid, Bijan or a CB. They also have Palmer who is a very solid #3.
If you're looking immediately ahead of us there are a bunch of teams that could go WR. It's a passing league and 3 WR sets are the norm.
Minnesota at 23 needs someone opposite Jefferson, especially with Thielen gone. Baltimore at 22 needs anything for Lamar. Seattle and Tampa both have 2 solid WRs, but Evans and Lockett are both getting older, and how much more money do you really want to commit there. That's 19 and 20.
I think the easier question is who clearly doesn't need a WR that early from 10-24. Looking quickly, I think the only really obvious answers are Philly at 10 (Brown, Smith, Goedert), the Jets at 13, and maybe LAC at 21 with Keenan, Williams, and Palmer (but even that is questionable with Keenan's age and health history).
Minnesota has both KJ Osbourn (who would be a #1 on our team) and TE TJ Hockenson. And their D was ranked 31st last year. They 100% are not taking a WR in the first round.
But yes, they probably would lean defense if the values were really close at their pick.
This is not fantasy football
This is not fantasy football
It’s also not 1980 anymore. In todays NFL you need to be an explosive offense, in case you haven’t noticed. WR have never had more influence on games than they do now. OL play is important but OL play across the league is generally trash and teams have learned how to design offenses to account for that. I have no problem taking OL in the first if that is where the best player available is. In fact I’m kind of hoping for it. But some of you absolutely refuse to recognize where the league is nowadays
Every team between 20-24 can take a WR and you'd have to think at least 1-2 comes off in that range so you're really hoping for the "run" to start as late as possible.
Every team between 20-24 can take a WR and you'd have to think at least 1-2 comes off in that range so you're really hoping for the "run" to start as late as possible.
If we get past those 3 spots with no WR taken. We could be in prime position for a trade up to like 20ish if we really love one guy in particular like JSN.
I have seen mocks and mock sim runouts with 8 WRs/CBs coming off before our pick, so never say never but I think a trade up is more of a break glass thing if there is a huge dropoff on the horizon.
I have seen mocks and mock sim runouts with 8 WRs/CBs coming off before our pick, so never say never but I think a trade up is more of a break glass thing if there is a huge dropoff on the horizon.
Good points. I could see it going a number of directions. If they really really love a certain WR and he comes in range and they have decided that having a cost controlled guy they really think is a WR1 is there top goal then I absolutely think they could do it.
Otherwise the value at CB is very likely to be high @25 due to the ridiculous depth and then they can trade up in round 2 to secure a guy high on one of their highest remaining tiers then (or simply wait if there is a few left on a high remaining tier until pick 57).