Quantify what we’ve done in terms of new personal to potential wins. Have we improved our roster enough to win an additional 2 games? 3 games? 4 games?
Have we significantly improved? Moderately improved? Using your best educated rationale.
Obviously we are better at LB. Seems like status quo or a step back right now on the OL. I do like how we are turning over the bottom of the roster. We needed better overall team depth and stronger capability at the bottom of the roster, which will be ongoing. I mean we'll have a much better idea after the draft.
Waller and Okereke are big improvements. Nunez Roches a significant step up from Jelly and Mondeaux. Paris Campbell stretches the field even when he is not thrown to. And keeping many of our own shouldn’t be overlooked.
Many more spots on the 90 to fill. Patience is hard.
And still win just as many games as last year. Something I think we as fans need to understand. I think the Giants will be much better but will they get to the Divisional round? I doubt it.
because they seem to assume last year's performance is a static thing that can be reliably duplicated. Guys have down years, soph slumps, guys age more quickly than anticipated,. They seem to have improved at some spots and are still perilously thin at others. The draft will help. But I think this is still a team that's within a game or 2 of .500 in either direction.
we've upgrading 2 positions with Waller and the LB. We still need to add a top guy at each of those positions. Otherwise, maybe our depth has gotten stronger. So really, a minor plus to our starting lineups. Still a ways to go
but if the younger players are able to develop more and come back from injury would be huge, especially on the o-line and Wan'dale making it back sooner than later. I don't expect a step back like 2016 to 2017, at least.
we've upgrading 2 positions with Waller and the LB. We still need to add a top guy at each of those positions. Otherwise, maybe our depth has gotten stronger. So really, a minor plus to our starting lineups. Still a ways to go
Sorry Bill but gotta disagree with your “minor” point. I think both of those guys have upgraded TE and ILB significantly and will be a major plus to our starting lineup.
Yes, we can still use another top guy at ILB but not sure how much better we can or need to upgrade TE. I think trying to upgrade TE at this point is down on the list of priorities.
a couple charts based on approximate value and points added
net-net, they were more active than others in the division but they paid premiums in terms of AAV in return for flexibility (low guaranteed$, 1 year deals). And took a pretty aggressive swing on Okereke.
If Okereke and Waller work out, i think it's fair to say they've taken steps to close the gap on dallas/philly. waller healthy is a bigger impact than cooks, gilmore/okereke is probably more of a wash. dallas losing kellen moore and philly losing both coordinators i think is another thing that may help close some of the gap.
note - i dont think ava and points over replacement are particularly great metrics, i stole these from someone on twitter and beggars cant be choosers. but i think they generally tell the story.
and a link to the guy's twitter. this chart says it includes "draft value" so im thinking a few of the teams higher than nyg may be there just because they have more/higher draft picks.
the improvement in wins. As already stated, they could possibly end up with a worse record, but be a much better team. Perhaps they lose close games to Eagles and Cowboys, instead of blowouts. Maybe they aren't as lucky late in games.
People say the schedule is tougher...maybe it is. Teams improve over the winter. Teams lose players and get weaker.
We know there are parts of the roster that look stronger; some merely look improved; some still in "dire" need. The staff has had a full season to evaluate and formulate a game plan to move forward. The salary situation is vastly improved and probably getting better.
It is important to not get too far ahead of ourselves as fans.
we've upgrading 2 positions with Waller and the LB. We still need to add a top guy at each of those positions. Otherwise, maybe our depth has gotten stronger. So really, a minor plus to our starting lineups. Still a ways to go
Sorry Bill but gotta disagree with your “minor” point. I think both of those guys have upgraded TE and ILB significantly and will be a major plus to our starting lineup.
Yes, we can still use another top guy at ILB but not sure how much better we can or need to upgrade TE. I think trying to upgrade TE at this point is down on the list of priorities.
The new guy is the only legit ILB on the roster, so yes, we still need another. With Waller, I didn't refer to him as a TE, because many people see him a more of a WR. So I think the TE spot is solid with him listed there, but in that case we still need a WR1, especially with his injury history
Front 7 looks a bit more solid for sure
Still would like one more on Dline ( A’Shawn?) , draft pick and / or. DJ Davidson developing
Wrs are more solid and a bit faster. No one scares u but a more professional wr room
Nothing on oline. Would expect to see that picked over first 3 rds
Still holes but better depth and competition
Front 7 looks a bit more solid for sure
Still would like one more on Dline ( A’Shawn?) , draft pick and / or. DJ Davidson developing
Wrs are more solid and a bit faster. No one scares u but a more professional wr room
Nothing on oline. Would expect to see that picked over first 3 rds
Still holes but better depth and competition
Keep forgetting Waller, a real nice match up problem some receivers are a good deal better
The bad OL is less intact than it was last year. Can’t really improve if that remains the same. Waller is 2 years removed from his elite status, which Waller are we getting? Paris Campbell doesn’t have 1000 yards total on his career and suddenly he’s our top guy? Okereke was a nice pickup but we also lost Love.
I am hopeful that the young players heal and improve. I am hopeful the team is going to be better even if the record is the same. The Eagles lost a lot of players but Dallas seems to be putting together a very good team and I would say they improved more than us at this point.
We have not done enough at WR and the OL is worse than last year at this point. I was expecting a lot more improvement in FA but it doesn’t seem like things came together. Seems like we did pay premiums to keep our own too.
Obviously better at LB. DT has an extra solid body we didn’t have last year. Maybe they add a much needed DE high in the draft.
On offense Waller is a potential difference maker. We’ll see there.
Many of the improvements we need to see are slated to come from within. Neal and the young guard. Thibs and Ojulari. What do we have there? As they go so goes the offensive and defensive fronts. So many variables.
most of the concepts are pretty simple. the giants spent money on more players than the teams in their division, and on average some of those players have been productive.
the athletic did a 3 year study on nfl free agency and they used approximate value added as their metric. football is obviously the hardest sport to quantify and no stat is perfect but some of the results were pretty correlative with reality. as an example below is the list of the 10 best signings in the 3 year period, i think they have most of these correct. 2 of the top 10 started for super bowl winners, 5 of the top 10 started for super bowl participants. i think 9/10 started on teams that made the playoffs, a few that did so unexpectedly with those players playing a big part in that.
all stats have limitations especially projecting forward - which is why nfl teams spend as much as they do on their fo's and still get more wrong in ufa than they get right. nobody knows how this will all end up.
we've upgrading 2 positions with Waller and the LB. We still need to add a top guy at each of those positions. Otherwise, maybe our depth has gotten stronger. So really, a minor plus to our starting lineups. Still a ways to go
we need to upgrade at TE? Can I have some of your crack? You don’t need all that!
...to know the answer as a coach or player, much less, a fan.
we roughly know what every team tried to do. they spent X to add Y.
just like the draft nobody knows how any of it will actually work out, and betting against is probably safer than betting on any individual move because more things don't work out than do.
I think they're about the same. I think they might make the playoffs with as that last WC spot. If you ask me, I think they got super lucky in some of those games. Hate to say it, but making it to the second round and getting absolutely killed by the Eagles was this team's ceiling.
we've upgrading 2 positions with Waller and the LB. We still need to add a top guy at each of those positions. Otherwise, maybe our depth has gotten stronger. So really, a minor plus to our starting lineups. Still a ways to go
we need to upgrade at TE? Can I have some of your crack? You don’t need all that!
If you'd read my 2nd post, maybe you'd have understood what I meant. And I don't use crack, just sayin'
That was last year's team ceiling. Doesn't mean it is this year's. Player development will tell the story. The ascension of players from years 1-2 and years 2-3 will be a bigger factor than who we added in free agency, though I do believe they will help.
I think they're about the same. I think they might make the playoffs with as that last WC spot. If you ask me, I think they got super lucky in some of those games. Hate to say it, but making it to the second round and getting absolutely killed by the Eagles was this team's ceiling.
In comment 16074140 Eric on Li said:
[quote] and a link to the guy's twitter. this chart says it includes "draft value" so im thinking a few of the teams higher than nyg may be there just because they have more/higher draft picks.
https://twitter.com/KevinCole___ - ( New Window ) [/quote
Interesting stuff E!!
Thanks for the charts
Not sure what to make of it all but it's cool information none the less
I do think we improved...not sure if it will amount to any wins..but we are a better team
To contribute in season one, and they can be a factor, the biggest gain—If they are good—is year 2 for many of them. If our draft last year which I think was strong, all improve, the. You will see an overall team growth.
Too many variables to quantify especially to wins!
that is all this is. People have crowned other team in the past based upon their off season moves. Totally meaningless.
Maybe we can agree that this GM seems to be doing everything he can to improve the depth of the team.
Fans need to realize that not every pickup is designed to be a pro-bowl move.
I look at it as a constant replacement of your weakest link at a position. So, if we pickup a player and he is not "great" but he is better than the guy who was at the end of your bench last year, then you can release the other player and you have improved the overall talent level.
Where we have gone backwards so far this off season is the offensive line. This is why I see the GM putting a lot of focus here over the next few months.
We've added a big receiving threat and improved depth
Two important things. There still are a lot of holes and lack of talent. I continue to come back to the idea that it's mostly about Daniel Jones. I always assumed we would sign him to a "win with" kind of contract, but this one seems more of a "win because of" contract. Now maybe that was was just how the negotiating worked out but it's very possible that the team sees Jones as being more than a guy you can win with if he actually had some pieces around him. To me, "better" comes down to the question, will Jones be a guy who will elevate the team and play like a quasi-elite QB with a few legit weapons around him? That's the key question.
RE: We've added a big receiving threat and improved depth
Two important things. There still are a lot of holes and lack of talent. I continue to come back to the idea that it's mostly about Daniel Jones. I always assumed we would sign him to a "win with" kind of contract, but this one seems more of a "win because of" contract. Now maybe that was was just how the negotiating worked out but it's very possible that the team sees Jones as being more than a guy you can win with if he actually had some pieces around him. To me, "better" comes down to the question, will Jones be a guy who will elevate the team and play like a quasi-elite QB with a few legit weapons around him? That's the key question.
While I agree there’s no more important position on the field than QB, and Jones has to play well, I think it’s mostly about the trenches.
It seems we’ve improved a bit on the D while not yet on the OL. I think that’s where Shoen’s focus needs to be going forward before I feel like we’ve answered the key question.
RE: RE: We've added a big receiving threat and improved depth
It seems we’ve improved a bit on the D while not yet on the OL. I think that’s where Shoen’s focus needs to be going forward before I feel like we’ve answered the key question.
+1
I have been a “numbers” guy all my life but all these metrics just
Leave me cold. I don’t understand them, the people who use them don’t know how to explain how they were derived, and I’m not sure they mean anything.
I know this is the new thing and maybe it applies to baseball but I don’t see how a lot of it has relevance to football. Anyone who uses metrics should be able to explain it.
Sorry for the rant.
RE: RE: We've added a big receiving threat and improved depth
Two important things. There still are a lot of holes and lack of talent. I continue to come back to the idea that it's mostly about Daniel Jones. I always assumed we would sign him to a "win with" kind of contract, but this one seems more of a "win because of" contract. Now maybe that was was just how the negotiating worked out but it's very possible that the team sees Jones as being more than a guy you can win with if he actually had some pieces around him. To me, "better" comes down to the question, will Jones be a guy who will elevate the team and play like a quasi-elite QB with a few legit weapons around him? That's the key question.
While I agree there’s no more important position on the field than QB, and Jones has to play well, I think it’s mostly about the trenches.
It seems we’ve improved a bit on the D while not yet on the OL. I think that’s where Shoen’s focus needs to be going forward before I feel like we’ve answered the key question.
Yes, it's just that, that was a big contract they signed with Jones. Bigger than I expected. The other moves are nice, but the story of the offseason clearly is the investment in Jones. If we're going to get to the next level, it will be largely on Jones to get us there.
I think the bigger issue is continuity, which the Giants have achieved.
They re-signed Jones, Barkley, Slayton, Shepard, Brieda and a few others.
They kept both OC and DC which is huge.
Then they added to key pieces to the defense in Okereke and Nacho to help stop the horrible run defense.
Bringing in Waller is a major upgrade in the vertical passing game as well as the red zone offense which actually was pretty good last year.
They have added a ton of depth at the WR position with Campbell and Smith along with bringing back Shep Slayton to add to Hodgins.
Bringing in McCain and adding the CB Amani A from Detroit are solid additions.
The draft will be interesting as I think NYG could go a number of ways.
I also think they must have a Center prospect in the draft they really like and will target no later than the 4th round.
That said, I really trust our GM and staff unlike years past. They seem to have a vision and a coaching staff that can bring out the best in the players.
But the Giants won an abnormal amount of close, 1 score games. I figure that win number goes closer to .500 than the pretty much flawless win percentage of last early season.
And looking at the Oline depth chart - still have some work to do.
And looking at the Oline depth chart - still have some work to do.
The O-line has some decent depth. The problem is that those depth guys are currently listed as starters :) Only 1 guy penciled in to start as of today who can be counted on to play well. And yes, the clear implication is that Neal can't yet be counted on, whatever we hope his potential is.
That was last year's team ceiling. Doesn't mean it is this year's. Player development will tell the story. The ascension of players from years 1-2 and years 2-3 will be a bigger factor than who we added in free agency, though I do believe they will help.
In comment 16074227 Route 9 said:
Quote:
I think they're about the same. I think they might make the playoffs with as that last WC spot. If you ask me, I think they got super lucky in some of those games. Hate to say it, but making it to the second round and getting absolutely killed by the Eagles was this team's ceiling.
No I meant what I meant. Meaning, that getting blown out by Philly in the second round is their ceiling and they will not reach it this year. They'll probably be a wildcard/bubble team and lose in the first round. They haven't done really anything to make me think they'd qualify to compete in the NFCCG.
the key with any stat is understanding that none of them are perfect. we've understood forever that however many yards players gain are directly impacted by the players blocking for them. hasnt stopped anyone from using the basic stats as hard currency in contract negotiations, award designations, hof resumes, etc for decades bc they are the best of limited options.
war was a stupid concept to baseball fans 10-20 years ago also, and now the league/pa propose to use to as a way to fairly compensate young players performance bonuses. if it's not your thing that's fine but if you find yourself annoyed to see it on a niche message board about your team's moves in the offseason, its kind of like being disappointed to arrive at your public library and see people using computers instead of a card catalogue.
in the nfl as impossible as it is to quantify performance, it's not too hard to quantify production in the form of snaps played/points scored/yards gained. you are either adding players with a track record of staying on the field and producing to some degree, or not. the ones who get paid more are generally the ones who have done so more productively. no need to overcomplicate or rage against numbers.
on the roster has improved. Many of these players signed are higher quality than the similar ones from last year. They still need front line players (like Center), but a lot of the depth is better, which should result in better Special Teams play.
Many more spots on the 90 to fill. Patience is hard.
Sorry Bill but gotta disagree with your “minor” point. I think both of those guys have upgraded TE and ILB significantly and will be a major plus to our starting lineup.
Yes, we can still use another top guy at ILB but not sure how much better we can or need to upgrade TE. I think trying to upgrade TE at this point is down on the list of priorities.
If Okereke and Waller work out, i think it's fair to say they've taken steps to close the gap on dallas/philly. waller healthy is a bigger impact than cooks, gilmore/okereke is probably more of a wash. dallas losing kellen moore and philly losing both coordinators i think is another thing that may help close some of the gap.
note - i dont think ava and points over replacement are particularly great metrics, i stole these from someone on twitter and beggars cant be choosers. but i think they generally tell the story.
https://twitter.com/KevinCole___ - ( New Window )
People say the schedule is tougher...maybe it is. Teams improve over the winter. Teams lose players and get weaker.
We know there are parts of the roster that look stronger; some merely look improved; some still in "dire" need. The staff has had a full season to evaluate and formulate a game plan to move forward. The salary situation is vastly improved and probably getting better.
It is important to not get too far ahead of ourselves as fans.
Quote:
we've upgrading 2 positions with Waller and the LB. We still need to add a top guy at each of those positions. Otherwise, maybe our depth has gotten stronger. So really, a minor plus to our starting lineups. Still a ways to go
Sorry Bill but gotta disagree with your “minor” point. I think both of those guys have upgraded TE and ILB significantly and will be a major plus to our starting lineup.
Yes, we can still use another top guy at ILB but not sure how much better we can or need to upgrade TE. I think trying to upgrade TE at this point is down on the list of priorities.
The new guy is the only legit ILB on the roster, so yes, we still need another. With Waller, I didn't refer to him as a TE, because many people see him a more of a WR. So I think the TE spot is solid with him listed there, but in that case we still need a WR1, especially with his injury history
Still would like one more on Dline ( A’Shawn?) , draft pick and / or. DJ Davidson developing
Wrs are more solid and a bit faster. No one scares u but a more professional wr room
Nothing on oline. Would expect to see that picked over first 3 rds
Still holes but better depth and competition
Still would like one more on Dline ( A’Shawn?) , draft pick and / or. DJ Davidson developing
Wrs are more solid and a bit faster. No one scares u but a more professional wr room
Nothing on oline. Would expect to see that picked over first 3 rds
Still holes but better depth and competition
Keep forgetting Waller, a real nice match up problem some receivers are a good deal better
I am hopeful that the young players heal and improve. I am hopeful the team is going to be better even if the record is the same. The Eagles lost a lot of players but Dallas seems to be putting together a very good team and I would say they improved more than us at this point.
We have not done enough at WR and the OL is worse than last year at this point. I was expecting a lot more improvement in FA but it doesn’t seem like things came together. Seems like we did pay premiums to keep our own too.
On offense Waller is a potential difference maker. We’ll see there.
Many of the improvements we need to see are slated to come from within. Neal and the young guard. Thibs and Ojulari. What do we have there? As they go so goes the offensive and defensive fronts. So many variables.
most of the concepts are pretty simple. the giants spent money on more players than the teams in their division, and on average some of those players have been productive.
the athletic did a 3 year study on nfl free agency and they used approximate value added as their metric. football is obviously the hardest sport to quantify and no stat is perfect but some of the results were pretty correlative with reality. as an example below is the list of the 10 best signings in the 3 year period, i think they have most of these correct. 2 of the top 10 started for super bowl winners, 5 of the top 10 started for super bowl participants. i think 9/10 started on teams that made the playoffs, a few that did so unexpectedly with those players playing a big part in that.
all stats have limitations especially projecting forward - which is why nfl teams spend as much as they do on their fo's and still get more wrong in ufa than they get right. nobody knows how this will all end up.
Does NFL free agency work? Ranking all 32 teams in value added the last 3 seasons - ( New Window )
we roughly know what every team tried to do. they spent X to add Y.
just like the draft nobody knows how any of it will actually work out, and betting against is probably safer than betting on any individual move because more things don't work out than do.
Quote:
we've upgrading 2 positions with Waller and the LB. We still need to add a top guy at each of those positions. Otherwise, maybe our depth has gotten stronger. So really, a minor plus to our starting lineups. Still a ways to go
we need to upgrade at TE? Can I have some of your crack? You don’t need all that!
If you'd read my 2nd post, maybe you'd have understood what I meant. And I don't use crack, just sayin'
In comment 16074227 Route 9 said:
[quote] and a link to the guy's twitter. this chart says it includes "draft value" so im thinking a few of the teams higher than nyg may be there just because they have more/higher draft picks.
https://twitter.com/KevinCole___ - ( New Window ) [/quote
Interesting stuff E!!
Thanks for the charts
Not sure what to make of it all but it's cool information none the less
I do think we improved...not sure if it will amount to any wins..but we are a better team
The Giants not only need to improve but improve more than the opponents.
The best improvement is keeping the same coaches..1st, the Giants coaches proved to be a strength..
The consistent coaching also know what was needed to get better. Improving areas of weaknesses must be known, not assumed.
Which is why.....i do not understand the reaction of losing Feliciano. They know he wasn't good enough.
The next best improvement is the personal department. They and the coaching staff are on the same page and are well prepared and have a plan.
Getting the shinny new toy..might not be the best solution. Keeping the culture..building a team...building depth.
Improving traits...example, team was too slow....team speed was greatly improved.
Maybe we can agree that this GM seems to be doing everything he can to improve the depth of the team.
Fans need to realize that not every pickup is designed to be a pro-bowl move.
I look at it as a constant replacement of your weakest link at a position. So, if we pickup a player and he is not "great" but he is better than the guy who was at the end of your bench last year, then you can release the other player and you have improved the overall talent level.
Where we have gone backwards so far this off season is the offensive line. This is why I see the GM putting a lot of focus here over the next few months.
While I agree there’s no more important position on the field than QB, and Jones has to play well, I think it’s mostly about the trenches.
It seems we’ve improved a bit on the D while not yet on the OL. I think that’s where Shoen’s focus needs to be going forward before I feel like we’ve answered the key question.
It seems we’ve improved a bit on the D while not yet on the OL. I think that’s where Shoen’s focus needs to be going forward before I feel like we’ve answered the key question.
+1
I know this is the new thing and maybe it applies to baseball but I don’t see how a lot of it has relevance to football. Anyone who uses metrics should be able to explain it.
Sorry for the rant.
Quote:
Two important things. There still are a lot of holes and lack of talent. I continue to come back to the idea that it's mostly about Daniel Jones. I always assumed we would sign him to a "win with" kind of contract, but this one seems more of a "win because of" contract. Now maybe that was was just how the negotiating worked out but it's very possible that the team sees Jones as being more than a guy you can win with if he actually had some pieces around him. To me, "better" comes down to the question, will Jones be a guy who will elevate the team and play like a quasi-elite QB with a few legit weapons around him? That's the key question.
While I agree there’s no more important position on the field than QB, and Jones has to play well, I think it’s mostly about the trenches.
It seems we’ve improved a bit on the D while not yet on the OL. I think that’s where Shoen’s focus needs to be going forward before I feel like we’ve answered the key question.
They re-signed Jones, Barkley, Slayton, Shepard, Brieda and a few others.
They kept both OC and DC which is huge.
Then they added to key pieces to the defense in Okereke and Nacho to help stop the horrible run defense.
Bringing in Waller is a major upgrade in the vertical passing game as well as the red zone offense which actually was pretty good last year.
They have added a ton of depth at the WR position with Campbell and Smith along with bringing back Shep Slayton to add to Hodgins.
Bringing in McCain and adding the CB Amani A from Detroit are solid additions.
The draft will be interesting as I think NYG could go a number of ways.
I also think they must have a Center prospect in the draft they really like and will target no later than the 4th round.
That said, I really trust our GM and staff unlike years past. They seem to have a vision and a coaching staff that can bring out the best in the players.
But the Giants won an abnormal amount of close, 1 score games. I figure that win number goes closer to .500 than the pretty much flawless win percentage of last early season.
And looking at the Oline depth chart - still have some work to do.
And looking at the Oline depth chart - still have some work to do.
The O-line has some decent depth. The problem is that those depth guys are currently listed as starters :) Only 1 guy penciled in to start as of today who can be counted on to play well. And yes, the clear implication is that Neal can't yet be counted on, whatever we hope his potential is.
Which means someone will jump in front of us and nab the next Nick Mangold.
In comment 16074227 Route 9 said:
Quote:
I think they're about the same. I think they might make the playoffs with as that last WC spot. If you ask me, I think they got super lucky in some of those games. Hate to say it, but making it to the second round and getting absolutely killed by the Eagles was this team's ceiling.
No I meant what I meant. Meaning, that getting blown out by Philly in the second round is their ceiling and they will not reach it this year. They'll probably be a wildcard/bubble team and lose in the first round. They haven't done really anything to make me think they'd qualify to compete in the NFCCG.
war was a stupid concept to baseball fans 10-20 years ago also, and now the league/pa propose to use to as a way to fairly compensate young players performance bonuses. if it's not your thing that's fine but if you find yourself annoyed to see it on a niche message board about your team's moves in the offseason, its kind of like being disappointed to arrive at your public library and see people using computers instead of a card catalogue.
in the nfl as impossible as it is to quantify performance, it's not too hard to quantify production in the form of snaps played/points scored/yards gained. you are either adding players with a track record of staying on the field and producing to some degree, or not. the ones who get paid more are generally the ones who have done so more productively. no need to overcomplicate or rage against numbers.