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NFT: Friday Mets Talk

GF1080 : 3/24/2023 11:24 am
Heyman saying he thinks they're still going to go with Esco to start at 3B so Baty can get more reps on both sides of the ball in AAA. Seems like a mistake. Vientos might have a better shot to make it DH with how bad Ruf has been. I would personally start Baty at 3B and Vientos at DH.

Bullpen haven't heard much as to who will be making the team in those back end spots. Hunter and Curtiss have to be the front runners.
i can see the argument for baty/vientos either way  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2023 11:28 am : link
bottomline with both is you want them to get off to a hot start and you want them to play.

if they are the best options for their spots id keep them up and plan to give them 2 weeks playing every day.

otherwise id send them down to play every day but be ready to call them up in 2 weeks if players are performing and they are down in AAA.
I'm not too worried about the young guys starting in AAA  
KDavies : 3/24/2023 11:31 am : link
there will inevitably be injuries/underperformance issues. They will be up soon enough
seems to me  
Dr. D : 3/24/2023 11:37 am : link
Ruf is cooked and wins/losses in April count just as much as they do in Sept.

I can kind of understand the thinking on Baty, though if it was up to me, he'd be starting at 3rd. But Vientos >>>>> Ruf. Why do we have to wait for what seems to be inevitable (and possibly lose a game or 2 due to lack of scoring with Ruf going 0-4).
If They’re Sent Down  
Samiam : 3/24/2023 11:37 am : link
Do the Mets gain an extra year of control if the kids get sent down? Or, is that lost because they were on the team last year?
speaking of young guys demayo updated his top 20 post-spring  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2023 11:39 am : link
the top 10 is looking really good but beyond that it drops off quick.
https://sny.tv/articles/mets-updated-top-20-prospects-2023 - ( New Window )
RE: If They’re Sent Down  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2023 11:40 am : link
In comment 16074522 Samiam said:
Quote:
Do the Mets gain an extra year of control if the kids get sent down? Or, is that lost because they were on the team last year?


think it depends on how much time they spend down. i dont believe last year burned anything, and i cant remember if the service time calculation changed in the new cba (dmm?) but i believe the braves are attempting to do that with grissom even though he debuted last year.
RE: RE: If They’re Sent Down  
Optimus-NY : 3/24/2023 11:44 am : link
In comment 16074525 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16074522 Samiam said:


Quote:


Do the Mets gain an extra year of control if the kids get sent down? Or, is that lost because they were on the team last year?



think it depends on how much time they spend down. i dont believe last year burned anything, and i cant remember if the service time calculation changed in the new cba (dmm?) but i believe the braves are attempting to do that with grissom even though he debuted last year.


Wasn't the magic date June 1st Eric? I seem to remember that being the date that teams would look at to call up guys on the cusp, but who they wanted to keep control of for an extra year.
i think the issue with vientos is part time mlb rh dh vs full time aaa  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2023 11:44 am : link
In comment 16074521 Dr. D said:
Quote:
Ruf is cooked and wins/losses in April count just as much as they do in Sept.

I can kind of understand the thinking on Baty, though if it was up to me, he'd be starting at 3rd. But Vientos >>>>> Ruf. Why do we have to wait for what seems to be inevitable (and possibly lose a game or 2 due to lack of scoring with Ruf going 0-4).


if he stays up, despite vogey, they need to get him more than 2 starts per week or else why bother?

in 2021 he had reverse splits, so if he stays up he needs to be given a look as almost full time DH with vogey mixing in, not the other way around.

nobody is served well with the young guys sitting on the bench. that is just a waste.

and a complicating factor with vientos is baty - because if baty makes it they are going to want to hit escobar at dh.

so id be kind of shocked if both make it. i think it's 50/50 they keep one of them and 50/50 which on they keep if they do. and very possible both start in AAA.
RE: RE: RE: If They’re Sent Down  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2023 11:49 am : link
In comment 16074530 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16074525 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16074522 Samiam said:


Quote:


Do the Mets gain an extra year of control if the kids get sent down? Or, is that lost because they were on the team last year?



think it depends on how much time they spend down. i dont believe last year burned anything, and i cant remember if the service time calculation changed in the new cba (dmm?) but i believe the braves are attempting to do that with grissom even though he debuted last year.



Wasn't the magic date June 1st Eric? I seem to remember that being the date that teams would look at to call up guys on the cusp, but who they wanted to keep control of for an extra year.


this is from mlb.com and how i remember it from alonso a few years ago, it wasn't june 1 but rather holding him for a few weeks to make sure he didn't hit 173 days total (which they didnt do, they called him up right away).



im not sure if there's some other rule that impacts this calculation if a player was called up the prior year, but there probably should be since so many owners are so cheap. i know this was part of the cba discussions but i dont remember if they actually changed anything.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/service-time - ( New Window )
Phillies  
pjcas18 : 3/24/2023 11:56 am : link
likely lost Rhys Hopkins for the year to an ACL tear fielding a pop-up.

He is seeking a 2nd opinion, but I think that's just to be 100% sure though Dombrowski says it's torn.
RE: Phillies  
speedywheels : 3/24/2023 12:01 pm : link
In comment 16074549 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
likely lost Rhys Hopkins for the year to an ACL tear fielding a pop-up.

He is seeking a 2nd opinion, but I think that's just to be 100% sure though Dombrowski says it's torn.


Gee, that's a shame....
RE: speaking of young guys demayo updated his top 20 post-spring  
GF1080 : 3/24/2023 12:47 pm : link
In comment 16074523 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
the top 10 is looking really good but beyond that it drops off quick. https://sny.tv/articles/mets-updated-top-20-prospects-2023 - ( New Window )


Not a bad list. I think Tidwell moves quick and we see him at some point next year. I think we might see Hamel and/or Vasil later this year. Going to be interesting to see with Scherzer and Verlander's age if we go after a #1/#2 in FA with Nola, Urias, and Burnes coming around the corner after 2024/25.

Pipeline ranked out farm #11 which sounds about right. A lot of high upside close to ready bats, some interesting pitching, and a whole bunch of high upside lottery tickets years away.
OD Starter  
GF1080 : 3/24/2023 1:40 pm : link
Scherzer named OD starter down in Miami. I'll be down there so let's get at it!
this is interesting from ragazzo (but really heyman)  
Eric on Li : 3/24/2023 1:42 pm : link
Quote:
According to Jon Heyman of The New York Post, Brett Baty looks unlikely to make the Mets out of camp, and Mark Vientos may have a better chance.

As Heyman noted, Vientos has hit against better pitching, which has been noticed by scouts.

“He’s faced the top dogs and has looked good at the plate,” one scout told The Post.


demayo said his d looked better at 3b too, so it's hard to make any argument for ruf except that he's easier to waste on the bench not playing (in case that's a concern with the role for vientos vs playing every day in aaa).
MLB insider Jon Heyman says Mark Vientos has a better chance than Brett Baty to make the Mets' Opening Day roster. - ( New Window )
They gave up a ton for Ruf  
Vanzetti : 3/24/2023 3:07 pm : link
I think you have to give him at least two months to show something. He did put up an an OPS of over .900 just two years ago.

I think he is likely done but Mets should have enough to carry him for a month or two.
RE: Phillies  
Vanzetti : 3/24/2023 3:09 pm : link
In comment 16074549 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
likely lost Rhys Hopkins for the year to an ACL tear fielding a pop-up.

He is seeking a 2nd opinion, but I think that's just to be 100% sure though Dombrowski says it's torn.


That's a huge loss for Phils. Hopkins strikes out a lot but he also comes up big a lot.

And he is a fiery guy. They will miss his leadership
People get way to hung up on the opening day roster IMO  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 10:11 am : link
Within a week or two injuries will kick in and the whole board will open up.

I have zero issues with Baty starting in AAA.
RE: They gave up a ton for Ruf  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 10:14 am : link
In comment 16074779 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
I think you have to give him at least two months to show something. He did put up an an OPS of over .900 just two years ago.

I think he is likely done but Mets should have enough to carry him for a month or two.


The main reason I dont mind carrying Ruf is because the shortside of a DH platoon is a terrible position on a Buck Showalter team. We saw it with JD Davis last year and then with Ruf. He doesnt try to get them extra work when they arent in their main roles. So you are looking at getting a start a week most of the time. That's HORRIBLE for any major league player to get into any sort of rhythm and do well.

If somebody is going to suffer in that role, I'd rather it be Ruf because I simply dont care about him. Would hate to see one of the younger guys rotting on the bench when they should be getting everyday reps in AAA.
RE: People get way to hung up on the opening day roster IMO  
GF1080 : 3/25/2023 12:03 pm : link
In comment 16075088 ZGiants98 said:
Quote:
Within a week or two injuries will kick in and the whole board will open up.

I have zero issues with Baty starting in AAA.


Sure but if he's good enough 2 weeks from now then he should just be here to start. Games in April count just as much as any other time of year.
RE: RE: People get way to hung up on the opening day roster IMO  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 12:41 pm : link
In comment 16075167 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 16075088 ZGiants98 said:


Quote:


Within a week or two injuries will kick in and the whole board will open up.

I have zero issues with Baty starting in AAA.



Sure but if he's good enough 2 weeks from now then he should just be here to start. Games in April count just as much as any other time of year.


Here's the problem. People think if you cut Ruf, Baty can take his spot on the roster. Problems solved. But really, that alone, isnt going to do anything for Baty. What people are really wanting is for Baty to start at 3B, which would push Escobar to the bench.

Escobar is coming off a season right in line with his career averages giving us 20 HR pop. Baty in his small stint at the end of 22 was terrible defensively and offensively. Are we really expected to believe the Mets are going to 100% bench Escobar on day 1? I think it's coming soon but dont mind it one bit if they want Baty to catch fire in AAA first and earn his way back. If Escobar, Ruf, etc. are all truly terrible as many say, they will prove that in short order making the move obvious. I dont mind preserving our depth for now and letting everything sort itself out naturally.
Mets fans campaigning to hand the keys over to Baty  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 12:47 pm : link
Will be the first one's complaining when he goes through his first rough stretch. He has very little time in AAA. Nothing wrong with seasoning him on the grill for just a bit more. His time is coming. Soon.
Ruf isn’t worth getting worked up about because I’m gathering  
CooperDash : 3/25/2023 12:48 pm : link
he will see very little playing time. BUT - holding onto him because he OPS’d .900 across 117 games two years ago at age 34 is how really bad decisions are made. That was such an outlier season in an otherwise pretty poor career. Lightning in a bottle.

I’d like to think we could fine ANYONE better for that role but that probably would cost more. Even with injuries, Ruf should not see any meaningful playing time.

I’m more concerned with the Mets FO leaving raging hot minor league players in the minors again while sitting through four months of ineffective play in the pros (looking at you Escobar, lol).

Personally, I think Baty should be starting at 3b.
Final roster IMO  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 12:57 pm : link
1.) Nimmo CF
2.) Marte RF
3.) Lindor SS
4.) Alonso 1B
5.) Vogelbach DH
6.) McNeil 2B
7.) Escobar 3B
8.) Narvaez C
9.) Canha LF

Pham, LG, Ruf, Nido

1.) Verlander
2.) Scherzer
3.) Senga
4.) Carrasco
5.) Peterson

Robertson, Ottavino, Raley, Curtiss, Smith, Nogosek, Santana, Hunter

The Mets could IL Ruf giving Baty another little taste in the majors to start the season. They could also DFA Santana if they really like somebody else like Brigham. I find both of those unlikely.
Baty  
pjcas18 : 3/25/2023 1:27 pm : link
has had a good spring, better than Vientos, both offensively and defensively and better than Escobar. Obviously Escobar has a longer track record so they may know more what they will get with Escobar, but it's not great. Escobar is basically a career average player. Last year at 3B Escobar had -11 DRS so it's not like he's Brooks Robinson over there.

I think even if Baty isn't 100% ready it sends a good message for him to make the team and be the opening day 3B that hard work pays off.

If they send Baty down and call him up in April (not due to injury) then it's all shenanigans because then it's not about development because anyone who believes 2 - 4 weeks in AAA changes anything is crazy.

I just want the players in the lineup who give the Mets the best chance to win. Each day. If the Mets thinks it's Escobar great, but if they think it's probably Baty but send him down for "reasons" then I think its BS. the Mets lost the division by percentage point, an April win would have changed the outcome (all other things being equal obviously)
Hunter  
GF1080 : 3/25/2023 1:28 pm : link
Tommy Hunter has made the team per Dicomo.
The MLB season is a marathon  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 1:31 pm : link
Just like with the pen, if the Mets want extended looks with Nogosek and Santana because they are out of options, even if Brigham or others are slightly better options day 1, they should do so in order to preserve the depth.
They can't give up  
Pete in MD : 3/25/2023 1:33 pm : link
on Ruf. He's my dog's favorite player.
Dylan Bundy has signed a MILB deal with the Mets  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 1:39 pm : link
Could be decent for a spot here and there I guess. 4.6-ish FIP last year.
RE: They can't give up  
ZGiants98 : 3/25/2023 1:39 pm : link
In comment 16075221 Pete in MD said:
Quote:
on Ruf. He's my dog's favorite player.


lol
RE: They can't give up  
Vanzetti : 3/25/2023 3:46 pm : link
In comment 16075221 Pete in MD said:
Quote:
on Ruf. He's my dog's favorite player.


Who is his favorite Giant? Barkley?
Baty has a great future  
Vanzetti : 3/25/2023 3:48 pm : link
But in his brief callup, he did not hit well. Smooth swing but he was not ready for major league pitching.

He will benefit greatly from some time at AAA both with the bat and in the field.
The one signing I don't like is Pham  
Vanzetti : 3/25/2023 3:51 pm : link
Declining skills. Has hit in low 200s the last three years.

And he is a loose cannon. As soon as he does not get playing time, he is going to go off. The only bad move the Mets made this offseason.
RE: Baty  
moze1021 : 3/25/2023 4:15 pm : link
In comment 16075216 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
has had a good spring, better than Vientos, both offensively and defensively and better than Escobar. Obviously Escobar has a longer track record so they may know more what they will get with Escobar, but it's not great. Escobar is basically a career average player. Last year at 3B Escobar had -11 DRS so it's not like he's Brooks Robinson over there.

I think even if Baty isn't 100% ready it sends a good message for him to make the team and be the opening day 3B that hard work pays off.

If they send Baty down and call him up in April (not due to injury) then it's all shenanigans because then it's not about development because anyone who believes 2 - 4 weeks in AAA changes anything is crazy.

I just want the players in the lineup who give the Mets the best chance to win. Each day. If the Mets thinks it's Escobar great, but if they think it's probably Baty but send him down for "reasons" then I think its BS. the Mets lost the division by percentage point, an April win would have changed the outcome (all other things being equal obviously)


Great post...I agree
Roster  
GF1080 : 3/25/2023 9:01 pm : link
Baty and Vientos sent to AAA.
RE: RE: They can't give up  
Pete in MD : 3/25/2023 10:11 pm : link
In comment 16075282 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 16075221 Pete in MD said:


Quote:


on Ruf. He's my dog's favorite player.



Who is his favorite Giant? Barkley?

He can’t decide between Barkley and Shepard.
Annd Baty to AAA…  
ZGiants98 : 3/26/2023 12:44 pm : link
Looking forward to watching him earn his way back…
Disappointing about Baty - I felt that he earned his way on the team  
CooperDash : 3/26/2023 12:53 pm : link
I think it sends a poor message but whatever. Hopefully, if Escobar no-shows again for the first four months of the season, they have the forthright to make the switch and not drag their feet on call-ups like last season.

If Escobar can play at least league average then it would be the best case scenario.
Vogelbach and Ruf  
Sammo85 : 3/26/2023 1:13 pm : link
do not deserve to be on this roster. Both are terrible, have been terrible this spring, and will continue to be terrible. Eppler better not get comfortable in his GM seat.
RE: Vogelbach and Ruf  
Jim in Fairfax : 3/26/2023 1:21 pm : link
In comment 16075645 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
do not deserve to be on this roster. Both are terrible, have been terrible this spring, and will continue to be terrible. Eppler better not get comfortable in his GM seat.

Vogelbach was very productive last year.
Batt wasn’t ready coming into spring  
Shecky : 3/26/2023 1:39 pm : link
And still isn’t. This silliness of outrage that he isn’t on the OD roster is odd. But it happens every year, so it’s expected. The good news is he is damn close, made a ton of progress, WANTS IT, and will get there.

But being out of position and missing your coach repositioning you. Breaking back to third when there’s two outs and thinking there’s one out. Indecisiveness, not being being fully confident of his decisions. Those are little things.
Again, he’s making strides and will continue to do so. Let them bring him up when he is ready. And trust them to make the right decisions.
Can’t wait till Thursday!!!!!!!
I think “outrage” is a strong word to use. Not sure I see anyone  
CooperDash : 3/26/2023 2:38 pm : link
outraged over this, lol. Personally, I feel that Baty gives the Mets a better chance to win than Escobar does. He’s progressed nicely this preseason. I’m okay with watching a good young player work out some kinks at the pro level, especially when the incumbent could very easily be worse. Who knows, I just like watching the kids play, lol.

But we are probably splitting hairs with this one. Hopefully Escobar gives us some in the first half and makes this a moot point.

Should be a fun year.
RE: RE: Vogelbach and Ruf  
Sammo85 : 3/26/2023 3:05 pm : link
In comment 16075653 Jim in Fairfax said:
Quote:
In comment 16075645 Sammo85 said:


Quote:


do not deserve to be on this roster. Both are terrible, have been terrible this spring, and will continue to be terrible. Eppler better not get comfortable in his GM seat.


Vogelbach was very productive last year.



He’s a DH who can’t play the field at all, can’t run on the bases and can’t really hit lefties consistently. He’s a platoon DH who isn’t good enough as a hitter and is just a guy you can figure out is feast or famine on fastballs. He got barbecued against good pitching down the stretch. The division teams toyed with him the last few months of the season, and it’s clear the scouting on him is out and clear advantage to the pitchers. He couldn’t adjust. An upgrade isn’t hard. But you have to have a GM with a brain which we unfortunately dont have.
Yeah  
pjcas18 : 3/26/2023 3:31 pm : link
no one is outraged. It's just clear to anyone who watched that Baty outplayed Escobar this Spring.

and to my prior point if Baty gets called up in April you know it's all BS because those things Shecky pointed out are all straightened out in a few weeks? lol, sure. with the warts, Baty is the best option at 3B IMO.

I expected the Wilpon Mets to send the "Baty's" down, I expected the Cohen Mets to start the best player.

Anyway, not the end of the world. Looking forward to real baseball.
RE: Batt wasn’t ready coming into spring  
Vanzetti : 3/26/2023 5:26 pm : link
In comment 16075663 Shecky said:
Quote:
And still isn’t. This silliness of outrage that he isn’t on the OD roster is odd. But it happens every year, so it’s expected. The good news is he is damn close, made a ton of progress, WANTS IT, and will get there.

But being out of position and missing your coach repositioning you. Breaking back to third when there’s two outs and thinking there’s one out. Indecisiveness, not being being fully confident of his decisions. Those are little things.
Again, he’s making strides and will continue to do so. Let them bring him up when he is ready. And trust them to make the right decisions.
Can’t wait till Thursday!!!!!!!


Baty is best on reaction plays when there is no time to think. Like that tremendous play he made behind the bag. But when he has time I see a little hesitation. Same with Maurizio. You don’t want that to evolve into a mental tick.

Plus did two or three extra months in the minors ever hurt anyone?
this may be an unpopular take but if the service time is still  
Eric on Li : 3/26/2023 7:45 pm : link
just a few weeks it makes very little sense to call up right away unless you think the guy is literally already one of the most important players on the team and they are disadvantaged without him. i probably would have done it with alonso in 2019 before we knew how good he was, and if the worst case is like that and baty comes up in a few weeks and goes on to a record breaking roy type year thats not such a bad down side bc if he's that good you get we'll be happy to have an extra year paying him the minimum (and spending an extra 10-20m on someone else).

the decision right now isn't as easy or as important as the decisions they make 2-4-6 weeks from now. hopefully we see good escobar and dh production but if not they cannot drag their feet if the kids are performing in aaa. it's still likely they will struggle whenever they get called up but it's better to get those struggles out of the way asap if the other players arent performing.
Ruf  
GF1080 : 3/27/2023 8:31 am : link
Ruf was DFA'D. Locastro made the team. Both terrible options.
RE: this may be an unpopular take but if the service time is still  
pjcas18 : 3/27/2023 8:40 am : link
In comment 16075782 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
just a few weeks it makes very little sense to call up right away unless you think the guy is literally already one of the most important players on the team and they are disadvantaged without him. i probably would have done it with alonso in 2019 before we knew how good he was, and if the worst case is like that and baty comes up in a few weeks and goes on to a record breaking roy type year thats not such a bad down side bc if he's that good you get we'll be happy to have an extra year paying him the minimum (and spending an extra 10-20m on someone else).

the decision right now isn't as easy or as important as the decisions they make 2-4-6 weeks from now. hopefully we see good escobar and dh production but if not they cannot drag their feet if the kids are performing in aaa. it's still likely they will struggle whenever they get called up but it's better to get those struggles out of the way asap if the other players arent performing.


it depends on the options.

If a kid, in this case Baty, provides a better option to help the team win, on March 30 (or whatever early season day) then they should be in the lineup.

period.

Aaron Boone got it right in his comments to Volpe:

"...you only have 20-something games at AAA...and there's room for development, but in the end I think that development should happen in the big leagues"

Not comparing Volpe and Baty, just saying some things, especially those warts Shecky highlighted can absolutely be fixed in the bigs and IMO should. If, and it's a big if, the Mets think Baty is a better option to win games now than Escobar.

People forget, the Mets lost the division by percentage points, and the April wins count just as much as the September ones. One more April win and the Mets could have won the division just as much as one less September loss.

Anyway, not a huge deal, but this line of thinking to send Baty down to work on stuff seems very old school. I bet the Braves wouldn't send Baty down if he beat out their 3B incumbent and if they did it would be pure financial reasons. But with their aggressive extension approach service time just gets bought out anyway.
Ruf being DFAd  
BigBlue7 : 3/27/2023 8:48 am : link
Locastro expected to get his roster spot
Bench  
GF1080 : 3/27/2023 9:06 am : link
Locastro is Jankowski bad. The margins matter. Not sure why we keep going into the season with these really horrific options at the end of the bench. Even slight upgrades which are still cheap can help the team.

Eppler still hasn't impressed me with any of his moves and it's easy to just throw Cohen's money around.
Didn’t see  
ZGiants98 : 3/27/2023 9:18 am : link
Lacostro making the team, but in the end he serves the same purpose as Ruf. He’s somebody we won’t care about getting 1 start a week while the kids play everyday in AAA.
RE: Ruf isn’t worth getting worked up about because I’m gathering  
Section331 : 3/27/2023 9:35 am : link
In comment 16075193 CooperDash said:
Quote:
he will see very little playing time. BUT - holding onto him because he OPS’d .900 across 117 games two years ago at age 34 is how really bad decisions are made. That was such an outlier season in an otherwise pretty poor career. Lightning in a bottle.

I’d like to think we could fine ANYONE better for that role but that probably would cost more. Even with injuries, Ruf should not see any meaningful playing time.

I’m more concerned with the Mets FO leaving raging hot minor league players in the minors again while sitting through four months of ineffective play in the pros (looking at you Escobar, lol).

Personally, I think Baty should be starting at 3b.


I think Ruf will be given a short leash. Buck would prefer to keep the known entity over a young ‘un, but if Ruf is OPS’ing .500 in early May, I think we’ll see him DFA’d and Vientos brought up.

And Baty won’t be in Cuse very long. Nothing to get worked up about.
RE: Ruf being DFAd  
Section331 : 3/27/2023 9:49 am : link
In comment 16075901 BigBlue7 said:
Quote:
Locastro expected to get his roster spot


Wow, didn’t see that happening so quickly. LoCastro at least offers some defense.
With the new pitcher rules, it's going to be easier to steal bases  
Metnut : 3/27/2023 10:10 am : link
I think Buck is going to want to use Locaastro in late inning close games to almost get a free extra base or two when needed. Kid can also play strong OF defense if needed.

Could do a lot worse with NYM's literal last roster spot.
What a disastrous trade for Ruf  
moze1021 : 3/27/2023 10:33 am : link
But very glad that the Mets have realized they made a mistake and are moving on.
Still upsetting though...  
moze1021 : 3/27/2023 10:34 am : link
That it was so obvious at the time that it was a terrible trade
RE: With the new pitcher rules, it's going to be easier to steal bases  
GF1080 : 3/27/2023 10:50 am : link
In comment 16075965 Metnut said:
Quote:
I think Buck is going to want to use Locaastro in late inning close games to almost get a free extra base or two when needed. Kid can also play strong OF defense if needed.

Could do a lot worse with NYM's literal last roster spot.


I don't think you realize how bad Locastro is. There really isn't much worse than him. We should have just kept Jake Mangum around for speed and D if we were going to go in this direction.
RE: RE: this may be an unpopular take but if the service time is still  
Eric on Li : 3/27/2023 11:13 am : link
In comment 16075896 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 16075782 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


just a few weeks it makes very little sense to call up right away unless you think the guy is literally already one of the most important players on the team and they are disadvantaged without him. i probably would have done it with alonso in 2019 before we knew how good he was, and if the worst case is like that and baty comes up in a few weeks and goes on to a record breaking roy type year thats not such a bad down side bc if he's that good you get we'll be happy to have an extra year paying him the minimum (and spending an extra 10-20m on someone else).

the decision right now isn't as easy or as important as the decisions they make 2-4-6 weeks from now. hopefully we see good escobar and dh production but if not they cannot drag their feet if the kids are performing in aaa. it's still likely they will struggle whenever they get called up but it's better to get those struggles out of the way asap if the other players arent performing.



it depends on the options.

If a kid, in this case Baty, provides a better option to help the team win, on March 30 (or whatever early season day) then they should be in the lineup.


this is where it's murky though, because it's hard to expect any kid to step right in without growing pains so to me the only times you really pass the "better option" test are with:

1. a truly rare phenom like alonso turned out to be (baty could be this good, im not sure, but obviously the vast majority of prospects arent day 1 phenoms)
2. or a below replacement level veteran option (like ruf might have been)

at 3b the last time we saw escobar he was one of the best players on the team down the stretch and 2 years ago he was an all star when they signed him. so spring numbers aside i think it's fair to expect he will play at or above replacement level. which means the majority of the time that will end up better than a prospect going through growing pains.

if either of 1/2 above ends up being incorrect, the silver lining is that it should be clear in a couple weeks when Baty's ops'ing 1000+ at AAA and in that case the silver lining is they may have saved an extra year of him at the league minimum.

im a believer in the building the strongest possible roster for series in october. the best thing for the team in that view is both escobar and baty having their best years because if that happens escobar's bat probably upgrades DH and he can be sort of a super utility guy. baty playing every day in AAA for a few weeks shouldn't harm his development but benching escobar or playing him part time to start could get his season off poorly like last year. same was true of vientos if he'd made the big league roster but in a limited role vs playing every day aaa.

i dont know if they got the roster decisions right but im glad the key guys are going to hit every day for a few weeks so we can find out relatively quickly. and nobody's service time gets burned while we find out.
RE: Still upsetting though...  
Vanzetti : 3/29/2023 3:44 am : link
In comment 16075985 moze1021 said:
Quote:
That it was so obvious at the time that it was a terrible trade


Yeah. I don't think a single poster on the Mets threads thought it was a good trade at the time. Shocking how much they gave up in comparison to what they got
RE: RE: RE: this may be an unpopular take but if the service time is still  
pjcas18 : 3/29/2023 7:25 am : link
In comment 16076020 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16075896 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 16075782 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


just a few weeks it makes very little sense to call up right away unless you think the guy is literally already one of the most important players on the team and they are disadvantaged without him. i probably would have done it with alonso in 2019 before we knew how good he was, and if the worst case is like that and baty comes up in a few weeks and goes on to a record breaking roy type year thats not such a bad down side bc if he's that good you get we'll be happy to have an extra year paying him the minimum (and spending an extra 10-20m on someone else).

the decision right now isn't as easy or as important as the decisions they make 2-4-6 weeks from now. hopefully we see good escobar and dh production but if not they cannot drag their feet if the kids are performing in aaa. it's still likely they will struggle whenever they get called up but it's better to get those struggles out of the way asap if the other players arent performing.



it depends on the options.

If a kid, in this case Baty, provides a better option to help the team win, on March 30 (or whatever early season day) then they should be in the lineup.



this is where it's murky though, because it's hard to expect any kid to step right in without growing pains so to me the only times you really pass the "better option" test are with:

1. a truly rare phenom like alonso turned out to be (baty could be this good, im not sure, but obviously the vast majority of prospects arent day 1 phenoms)
2. or a below replacement level veteran option (like ruf might have been)

at 3b the last time we saw escobar he was one of the best players on the team down the stretch and 2 years ago he was an all star when they signed him. so spring numbers aside i think it's fair to expect he will play at or above replacement level. which means the majority of the time that will end up better than a prospect going through growing pains.

if either of 1/2 above ends up being incorrect, the silver lining is that it should be clear in a couple weeks when Baty's ops'ing 1000+ at AAA and in that case the silver lining is they may have saved an extra year of him at the league minimum.

im a believer in the building the strongest possible roster for series in october. the best thing for the team in that view is both escobar and baty having their best years because if that happens escobar's bat probably upgrades DH and he can be sort of a super utility guy. baty playing every day in AAA for a few weeks shouldn't harm his development but benching escobar or playing him part time to start could get his season off poorly like last year. same was true of vientos if he'd made the big league roster but in a limited role vs playing every day aaa.

i dont know if they got the roster decisions right but im glad the key guys are going to hit every day for a few weeks so we can find out relatively quickly. and nobody's service time gets burned while we find out.


Not sure if it's true in football, but in hockey they say a prospect is basically done developing at 23.

The theory (and evidence) is the male body still develops in the late teens early 20's and with baseball and hockey you have kids drafted as young as 17/18 so there is a lot of projection - so basically you are developing them or they are being developed in college, etc.

Plus there is emotional development that happens besides the physical.

by 23 there is no more trajectory (for hockey) for the most part.

it doesn't mean they can't improve after 23 it's just not as pronounced. And of course there can be outliers, but they are considered just that. Outliers.

If Baty was 19 or 20 I'd agree with you (and probably the Mets), at 23 I do not.
meant to say  
pjcas18 : 3/29/2023 7:28 am : link
not sure if it's true in *baseball*
Daniel  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 9:13 am : link
Murphy to play with the Long Island Ducks this season
DiComo  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 9:44 am : link
Mets reliever Bryce Montes de Oca, who had initially avoided surgery following spring forearm discomfort, will instead undergo an arthroscopic right elbow procedure today to remove bone fragments. He's looking at an absence of months, with an exact timeframe TBD post-operation.
i dont buy that anything is tied strictly to age in baseball  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 10:30 am : link
and in baty's case he's been on the older end of everything, that's why he fell in the draft in the first place because he was old for a high school prospect. alonso didnt debut until he was 24 and he was only starting his age 23 year in AA.

baseball is different than every other sport bc hitting a baseball is different at all the levels and it's exceedingly rare for prospects to skip levels and be successful. most need to go through each of those levels of pitching and then also a 1-2-3 year adjustment to MLB pitching. as we've seen with top prospects rated just as well as baty like dom, conforto, rosario, it's not linear and there are usually ups/downs. alonso types are the exceptions. conforto was one of those guys called up quickly and who made an instant impact, and he debuted at the same age as vientos/baty (22). he also regressed in his second year and got send back down at 23.

baty has only taken 20 something at bats at AAA, and when called up in the big leagues last year he hit .184 in almost 2x the number of at bats as he got this spring against big leaguers (which is to say neither was a significant sample size). vientos is 23 and has almost 500 aaa at bats with a cumulative 900 ops.

maybe baty is in that small handful but i dont think 6 hits in 25 st at bats against mlb pitchers this spring is a strong signifier, which is why even ahead of ST eppler said it was unlikely he'd make the club out of st. if he's in that small handful we should know within a month that he (and/or vientos) are simply beyond AAA pitching and he'll be up a full year earlier than alonso was. its great that his defense is trending in the right direction but it is also probably a legitimate uphill for him relative to escobar for the time being.
Baty's  
pjcas18 : 3/29/2023 10:53 am : link
poor showing when he came up = needs development, but Escobar's 4 months of horrid play = that's our guy.

lol, ok.
RE: RE: Still upsetting though...  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 10:56 am : link
In comment 16077484 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 16075985 moze1021 said:


Quote:


That it was so obvious at the time that it was a terrible trade



Yeah. I don't think a single poster on the Mets threads thought it was a good trade at the time. Shocking how much they gave up in comparison to what they got


According to somebody I trust, the Mets were in the mix for a few guys (nobody "exciting" but players like Pham and then were left scrambling)... and when you scramble you often make bad decisions.
PJ there is more to it than that obviously  
bhill410 : 3/29/2023 11:16 am : link
1) Escobar has a considerable salary
2) Escobar was a very productive player two years ago
3) Escobar is viewed as a team leader and “amazing clubhouse guy”
4) Escobar was allegedly hurt most of last year and allegedly only felt healthy after coming back in August. (This is a common line)
5) They clearly don’t fully trust Baty defensively yet
6) Much of Batys production was early in spring training against AAA pitching
7) There are potential service time considerations if Baty is not eligible for ROY draft pick.

Not saying it’s a slam dunk but they clearly don’t want to clog up the DH spot with Escobar and there is no reason to not see if he can still be productive or if last September was a mirage.
RE: Baty's  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 12:22 pm : link
In comment 16077601 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
poor showing when he came up = needs development, but Escobar's 4 months of horrid play = that's our guy.

lol, ok.


escobar has been an above average hitter with 20+ homers and decent defense in his last 4 full years with an all star appearance in 2021. they didnt give him 24m because they dont like him.

when he was playing terrible for 4 months i said he should have been replaced but credit where it's due, the last 2 months he turned his season around completely, got a bunch of big hits, and ended up with a pretty typical season worth almost 2.5 fwar. even if baty replaces him at some point he is a piece that can help this team win if he plays to his norms.
Buck has shown that he’ll bench Escobar  
Section331 : 3/29/2023 12:26 pm : link
when he has extended slumps, Guillorme was getting the majority of AB’s v RHP until getting hurt last year. If Escobar is struggling v RHP in May, I think we’ll see Baty up sooner than later.
RE: RE: Still upsetting though...  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 12:27 pm : link
In comment 16077484 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 16075985 moze1021 said:


Quote:


That it was so obvious at the time that it was a terrible trade



Yeah. I don't think a single poster on the Mets threads thought it was a good trade at the time. Shocking how much they gave up in comparison to what they got


my initial reaction was that it seemed insane but when i realized how good ruf had been in the prior 2 years since coming back to mlb i assumed they saw something wonky in his numbers that was due for a correction. and in fairness those first few weeks he looked like he was going to be good but then just like naquin teams adjusted i guess and he took a nose dive. both of those were very weird trades for players with very weird careers. both maybe too clever by half compared to just trading for vazquez.
RE: PJ there is more to it than that obviously  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 12:30 pm : link
In comment 16077612 bhill410 said:
Quote:
1) Escobar has a considerable salary
2) Escobar was a very productive player two years ago
3) Escobar is viewed as a team leader and “amazing clubhouse guy”
4) Escobar was allegedly hurt most of last year and allegedly only felt healthy after coming back in August. (This is a common line)
5) They clearly don’t fully trust Baty defensively yet
6) Much of Batys production was early in spring training against AAA pitching
7) There are potential service time considerations if Baty is not eligible for ROY draft pick.

Not saying it’s a slam dunk but they clearly don’t want to clog up the DH spot with Escobar and there is no reason to not see if he can still be productive or if last September was a mirage.


the bold is well said (better than i did).

all of Baty, Vogelbach, Escobar, Vientos could help this team. or all of them may not be able to and they need to add from outside as they tried to do with correa.

there's only 1 way all 4 of them can start the year playing basically every day and that's the way they things are right now. their decision was less to choose 2 of them now than to not bench any of them now.
Yankees  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 12:47 pm : link
release Ortega. Ortega is a decent player (or has been over the past 2). Somewhat risky looking for an MLB job this late in the game but he may see another organization as a quicker path. He's probably better than Locastro but I don't think that's a move the Mets rush to make.
.  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 12:55 pm : link
Joe DeMayo
@PSLToFlushing
Confirmed to start the season with High-A @BKCyclones
:

Kevin Parada
Alex Ramirez
Blade Tidwell
RE: PJ there is more to it than that obviously  
pjcas18 : 3/29/2023 1:02 pm : link
In comment 16077612 bhill410 said:
Quote:
1) Escobar has a considerable salary
2) Escobar was a very productive player two years ago
3) Escobar is viewed as a team leader and “amazing clubhouse guy”
4) Escobar was allegedly hurt most of last year and allegedly only felt healthy after coming back in August. (This is a common line)
5) They clearly don’t fully trust Baty defensively yet
6) Much of Batys production was early in spring training against AAA pitching
7) There are potential service time considerations if Baty is not eligible for ROY draft pick.

Not saying it’s a slam dunk but they clearly don’t want to clog up the DH spot with Escobar and there is no reason to not see if he can still be productive or if last September was a mirage.


The only reason not to see if Escobar can still be productive is because it's a gamble.

The Mets are gambling Escobar in April will be better than Baty in April.

That is what it boils down to and you will never know the answer, all we will know is how Escobar is in April (or until the time when/if Baty is recalled).


Brooklyn  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 1:12 pm : link
Cyclones 2023 OD roster (should win a bunch of games)
Link - ( New Window )
Escobar - are we really asking if his September was a mirage?  
CooperDash : 3/29/2023 1:22 pm : link
Come on, guys. There is NO WAY that Escobar is going to be a .983 OPS+ guy. Never has been even close to that and certainly won’t be at age 34. He got hot - that is all. And apparently his hot September boosted his overall numbers enough to bring up his overall numbers but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t completely suck for the prior 4 months of the season. His overall stats in 2022 mean nothing.

Using Escobars overall stats to prove your point is disingenuous. I do hope that Escobar’s May/June/July/August last year was the mirage. Because I have no faith that the Mets will make a quick decision on it during the season. They certainly didn’t last season.
which player is the bigger gamble  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 1:24 pm : link
a guy who has hit .250 with 48 homers and comparable above average production (106/107rc) over the last 2 years, made the all star game in 2021, and also happened to be one of the best hitters on the team down the stretch.

or a player with 7 hits in 38 mlb at bats last year (.184) and played just 6 games above AA in AAA.

do the math on the numbers below from britton - baty's .400 obp translates to 10 times on base and i think 5 hits against MLB pitchers this spring, is that really enough evidence to impact anything?

that's why eppler said a month ago there was almost nothing baty could do in ST to win 3b.

RE: Escobar - are we really asking if his September was a mirage?  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 1:30 pm : link
In comment 16077682 CooperDash said:
Quote:
Come on, guys. There is NO WAY that Escobar is going to be a .983 OPS+ guy. Never has been even close to that and certainly won’t be at age 34. He got hot - that is all. And apparently his hot September boosted his overall numbers enough to bring up his overall numbers but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t completely suck for the prior 4 months of the season. His overall stats in 2022 mean nothing.

Using Escobars overall stats to prove your point is disingenuous. I do hope that Escobar’s May/June/July/August last year was the mirage. Because I have no faith that the Mets will make a quick decision on it during the season. They certainly didn’t last season.


of course he won't play to a .983 ops. nobody expects him to be better than alonso and that's not nearly a reasonable expectation for him.

but on a team lacking power he has the 2nd most homers on the team to alonso over the last several years combined and has hit 20+ in his last 4 full years while and carrying a .250+ ba. he isnt jdd or dom or john mayberry or ruf. his track record indicates the early season struggles were an outlier.
Quinn  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 1:32 pm : link
Brodey will attempt to convert to a P

Quinn Brodey made 10 appearances for Stanford in 2015. 10.1 innings 15 hits 10 walks 4 k's 3.48 era. He also pitched 31.2 innings in the NECL allowing 22 hits 19 walks 21 k's... with a *2.27* era... talk about avoiding damage lol
The gamble  
pjcas18 : 3/29/2023 1:36 pm : link
is on the upside, Escobar is nothing if not consistent (year over year) and he's mediocre offensively and getting worse defensively.

Baty is all upside. He is a consensus top 33 prospect in all of baseball. Of course prospects fail, Rosario was once the #3 prospect and Kelenic pretty high, prospects do fail but when your gamble is against mediocrity I'd take it and not second guess it.

There was a time a couple years ago when the best prospects were skipping AAA or spending very little time there because AAA was basically a taxi squad of AAAA players.

If you look at the track record Baty has in the minors I'd be comfortable giving him some rope - plus...he beat out Escobar in spring training. And his biggest knock - defense - seemed improved.

anyway, as I have maintained all along, I don't think it's life and death, and long-term not likely going to make or break the season, but I would have rewarded Baty for his hard work. Like the Yankees did with Volpe and other teams around the league have done with their youth.

.  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 1:41 pm : link
Daryl Van Schouwen
@CST_soxvan
Liam Hendriks will not be placed on 60-day IL, which is encouraging. Responding well to treatment, Hahn said.
Yariel Rodriguez  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 1:55 pm : link
situation has become "messy", he's unlikely to sign anytime soon (with anyone).
numbers have been brutal but a's bailing on pache pretty quick  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 4:18 pm : link
Quote:

Melissa Lockard
@melissalockard
A’s announce they’ve traded Cristian Pache to the Phillies for RHP Billy Sullivan
Pache  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 4:20 pm : link
was out of options but at that price, a no-brainer for the Phillies
.  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 4:20 pm : link
The Reds won't be good but they do have some interesting arms. Lodolo, Greene, Ashcraft
Cardinals DFA Anthony Misiewicz  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 4:24 pm : link
Pretty decent career numbers (3.72 FIP/9.1 K/9 over 119 career MLB appearances). Gotta figure there will be some interest
BatX  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 4:30 pm : link
projects the Mets to win 84.7 games, 3rd place finish, WC #3
Link - ( New Window )
Arte Moreno  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 4:46 pm : link
net worth 4.1 billion.

"t’s the fourth year of this setup. For the first two years, that’s what everyone did. COVID-19 forced the change. But as baseball and society have moved toward a more post-COVID reality, Angels radio — at the direction of Angels management — remains stuck in the past.

“We found out that it’s not changing — we love our radio people, they do a great job,” Angels owner Arte Moreno said during a rare press session on March 18. “We just found that the economics — 40,000-50,000 miles is not going to change that experience.”"
.  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 4:51 pm : link
Andrew Tredinnick
@andrew_tred
·
25s
Elieser Hernandez will begin the season on the IL with a right shoulder strain, Billy Eppler says.
RE: Pache  
Eric on Li : 3/29/2023 4:56 pm : link
In comment 16077834 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
was out of options but at that price, a no-brainer for the Phillies


yeah i dont understand oakland here even there's not a lot promising in there with the bat. he got his exit velocity up to average last year but he's basically been a weak contact ground ball machine. when he's not swinging over aggressively without making contact.

what a brutal trade to give up on him that quickly though. langeliers makes some loud contact for a catcher so maybe he works out but he's also already 25.
.  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 4:58 pm : link
Anthony DiComo
@AnthonyDiComo
·
6m
Mets pitcher Elieser Hernández will begin the season on the injured list due to a right shoulder strain. He's back to playing catch, but the Mets must build him back up a bit.
Very  
DanMetroMan : 3/29/2023 5:01 pm : link
broadly speaking but I'd take a shot on mid 20's former top prospects for non-top 40-50 RP prospects 100% of the time. At least Pache is an elite fielder. I don't expect him to even become a quality 4th OF at this point but shoe on the other foot, I'd make a similar move if I were the Mets (not speaking specifically about Pache).
RE: BatX  
MyNameIsMyName : 3/29/2023 5:27 pm : link
In comment 16077842 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
projects the Mets to win 84.7 games, 3rd place finish, WC #3 Link - ( New Window )


That’s what I see unfortunately. I think they are behind the Phillies and Atlanta
84 games is  
bhill410 : 3/29/2023 8:21 pm : link
….. not good
WC3 vs the NL Central winner  
Metnut : 3/29/2023 8:47 pm : link
isn’t the worst outcome. Home field doesn’t mean a lot in the playoffs.
Merry Opening Day Eve  
Shecky : 3/29/2023 9:45 pm : link
To all who celebrate
🎉 ⚾️
This season cannot start soon enough  
Rob in Rockaway : 3/29/2023 10:08 pm : link
.
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