It’s pretty clear that Lamar Jackson will not be returning to Baltimore next season. Schefter reported that Jackson requested a trade in March 2nd. I think both sides are ready to move on. The Ravens probably don’t want to guarantee him $200+ million, and are ready to move on without him. But they also aren’t just going to give him away. What team do you guys see him at? A lot of rumors of him going to Indy. What do you guys think?
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In comment 16076119 Jay on the Island said:
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In comment 16076093 JoeyBigBlue said:
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How is it not true if you, yourself just said that they can work out a trade for less than 2 first round picks?
Ok, once again. If he SIGNS with another team that team will have to send two 1st round picks to the Ravens since they tagged him with the non-exclusive franchise tag.
Now if another team wants Jackson but is unwilling to sign him and give up two 1st round picks they can trade for his rights giving up less and then sign him to a long term deal.
So basically the two #1s really never has to happen, if the teams agree? I find this confusing, but I know players are tagged and traded for less than two #1s all the time. Fans treat two #1s as gospel
Yes a team can trade for Lamar Jackson's rights for less than two 1st round picks. Once they obtain his rights they can then sign him long term the same as if the Ravens were to sign him long term now.
The other option is that a team can just sign him now to an offer sheet but they would surrender two 1st round picks to Baltimore as Baltimore still owns his rights. Then there is also the chance that Baltimore matches the offer sheet but it is clear that Baltimore would be thrilled to land two 1st for Jackson.
Thanks
Unless he changes his contract demands, my guess is that he plays on the FT this year. I don't see him holding out and walking away from $32M.
I keep reading this and I have no idea how you guys know his demands especially when they’ve been refuted publicly. If you don’t think he’d get close to $200m on the open market then you aren’t paying attention to how bad around half the starting QBs are in the NFL.
He’s had exactly 1 week to openly talk to teams. Maybe give it some time? It isn’t a straight contract negotiation it’s money plus picks.
This will not end well.
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problem is that nobody wants to trade for Jackson because of his contract demands. Whatever those demands are, teams have decided they are a non-starter. I doubt the draft compensation is preclusive, even if it would be two #1s. I also doubt his injury history is preclusive. It's not that severe, and he's an electrifying player in his prime. And unlike any of the QBs about to be drafted, Jackson is a proven commodity.
Unless he changes his contract demands, my guess is that he plays on the FT this year. I don't see him holding out and walking away from $32M.
I keep reading this and I have no idea how you guys know his demands especially when they’ve been refuted publicly. If you don’t think he’d get close to $200m on the open market then you aren’t paying attention to how bad around half the starting QBs are in the NFL.
He’s had exactly 1 week to openly talk to teams. Maybe give it some time? It isn’t a straight contract negotiation it’s money plus picks.
I don't know what his demands are. I said as much in my post. But what is obvious is that no team wants to meet those demands. Is the compensation part of the reason he hasn't been traded? Possibly, but my guess is that his contract demands are more of an impediment to any trade than the draft compensation. You said it yourself. Many teams have mediocre to bad starting QBs. I think a lot of teams would trade two #1s, or something close to it, for Lamar. But they obviously won't do it if they can't reach an agreement with him.
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In comment 16076094 widmerseyebrow said:
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keeping draft picks and taking a chance on:
Young?
Stroud?
Levis?
Richardson?
I'm not sure Lamar is currently a slam dunk in exchange for any of them given his performance and injury history sliding for 3 years now.
Not all 4 of those guys will become stars. History has shown that maybe 2 out of the 4 QBs will become stars. Lamar is a proven NFL player. If you’re Indy, do you want the 3 best QB in that group or do you want a star NFL player in his prime.
You need to figure the cost of Lamar into the calculation though. Giving him the massive amount of money he wants restricts what you can do elsewhere, and is a risk with his injury history.
If I’m the Colts I’m taking that chance without a doubt. He’s 26 years old and entering his prime years. This is a guy that is 45-16 as a starter in the NFL. He’s missed 5 games in 2021, 5 games in 2022. I think the injury thing is being overblown here.
The Colts have gone through 4 washed up QBs, after Andrew Luck retired. If there’s a chance to take a young superstar QB, I’m taking it.
Compare that to a situation with Lamar
I'm sure everything (contract and draft compensation) is or has been negotiated. My point is only that I think his contract demands are more of an impediment to any trade than the draft compensation. Look what the Browns, Broncos, and Rams traded to get Watson, Wilson, and Stafford. Teams are willing to part with a lot of draft picks to get a proven QB.
Who is negotiating?
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and they are not just negotiating his pay but also the draft compensation. It’s an unprecedented situation. Owners likely don’t want to pay both top pay and 2 top picks, that’s obvious. The question is who compromises what and yeah, Jackson will have to compromise since he’s not a UFA but he likely wouldn’t if he was.
Who is negotiating?
Any team without a QB, minus the Panthers, is going to investigate the situation. I can’t tell you who’s made an offer.
This young man is about to hit a wall,publically
Gee, I wonder why...
Gee, I wonder why...
are you intimating this is racial?
Gee, I wonder why...
Oh FFS
IIRC, NFL teams have to escrow the not-yet-paid guarantees in their player contracts, including future years. Given the guarantees that Jackson is seeking, the escrow dynamic for an extremely expensive, extremely guaranteed contract would be much more of a complication than it would be an attraction for a new buyer of that franchise, IMO.
It might not be a big complication for all prospective buyers, but my sense is that it would limit the field of suitors because of the liquidity required. The VC-backed entities might be reluctant to keep a quarter billion of real cash locked away in a savings account for the next half decade, unable to use it for anything else.
Gee, I wonder why...
It's BBI. The hate here spans all colors, races, religions, even planets. BBI is an equal opportunity hater.
Hand over fist, not foot.
You're welcome.
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In comment 16076093 JoeyBigBlue said:
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How is it not true if you, yourself just said that they can work out a trade for less than 2 first round picks?
Ok, once again. If he SIGNS with another team that team will have to send two 1st round picks to the Ravens since they tagged him with the non-exclusive franchise tag.
Now if another team wants Jackson but is unwilling to sign him and give up two 1st round picks they can trade for his rights giving up less and then sign him to a long term deal.
So basically the two #1s really never has to happen, if the teams agree? I find this confusing, but I know players are tagged and traded for less than two #1s all the time. Fans treat two #1s as gospel
If a team other than the ravens signs him to a contract the Ravens either match the offer or take 2 1st round draft picks
If he signs the franchise tag the ravens can trade him to another team for less or more than the 2 1st round picks
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We can’t rule out the Commanders either. They can create the cap space, and have the draft picks. Plus having a Lamar Jackson could be more marketable to any potential buyer of the team.
IIRC, NFL teams have to escrow the not-yet-paid guarantees in their player contracts, including future years. Given the guarantees that Jackson is seeking, the escrow dynamic for an extremely expensive, extremely guaranteed contract would be much more of a complication than it would be an attraction for a new buyer of that franchise, IMO.
It might not be a big complication for all prospective buyers, but my sense is that it would limit the field of suitors because of the liquidity required. The VC-backed entities might be reluctant to keep a quarter billion of real cash locked away in a savings account for the next half decade, unable to use it for anything else.
This is an underemphasized point here...Business folk don't like having money sitting in escrow for long periods of time.Just a basic fact
Want to and can’t are two different things and no one wants to, but that’s somewhat irrelevant.
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I don't like it either, but I don't blame Lamar Jackson. He has 200M on the line and if he's hurt, theres a good chance it could get hurt worse and cost him a fortune. He knew the Ravens weren't going to pay him, so why risk his whole future for the Ravens. Its a sad indication of where sports are these days because all of these people are raking in money hand over foot.
Hand over fist, not foot.
You're welcome.
lol, oops. Thank you.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Want to and can’t are two different things and no one wants to, but that’s somewhat irrelevant.
first of all,Baltimore has offered more than $150MM guaranteed to Lamar.
Second,this is a business and people make business decsions.
It's not a matter of can or cannot afford $250MM it's a matter of desire.
Not sure what your point is about there being 0 outs...this seems to go against your overall argument no???
It wasn’t too long ago that Daniel Jones would have been lucky to make $20m - in other words, don’t expect the market to agree with your assessment. And Baltimore already made a fully guaranteed offer of over $130m and that’s with having control of next next several years with Tags. You are kidding yourself if you don’t think he’d make a lot more as a UFA.
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keeping draft picks and taking a chance on:
Young?
Stroud?
Levis?
Richardson?
I'm not sure Lamar is currently a slam dunk in exchange for any of them given his performance and injury history sliding for 3 years now.
Not all 4 of those guys will become stars. History has shown that maybe 2 out of the 4 QBs will become stars. Lamar is a proven NFL player. If you’re Indy, do you want the 3 best QB in that group or do you want a star NFL player in his prime.
Proven NFL star. Except who's style of play how much longer will his body hold out. No one is guaranteeing a run first QB w his injury history and need for an offense only he can Ru. 200 million. Now the collusion stuff is out there but it's not collusion to not want to over pay for a guy who has looked like crap in big games and the playoffs
And, how many teams are there who, right now, are considered a QB away from contention? The Jets fall into that category, but seem to still be all in on Rodgers.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Wow… this is dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Let’s take away Barkley’s Offensive Rookie of the year because that was 5 years ago, and he’s regressed since then.
"Lamar has over valued himself. He's injury prone, etc"
then turn around and say...
"If he had an agent, teams would be lining up to trade for him"
This is just another high-stakes negotiation in sports with drama attached to it. It's not the first or last time.
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Which is technically true of course, but that was in 2019. FOUR years ago, which - in the world of football - is a lifetime ago.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Wow… this is dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Let’s take away Barkley’s Offensive Rookie of the year because that was 5 years ago, and he’s regressed since then.
Wtf is your point? Is Barkley asking for $200M+ in GUARANTEED money? I’m honestly not sure what Barkley has to do with anything here. Barkley has regressed too so teams should ignore Lamar regressing and give him his money? Is that your point? Weird post man
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Which is technically true of course, but that was in 2019. FOUR years ago, which - in the world of football - is a lifetime ago.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Wow… this is dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Let’s take away Barkley’s Offensive Rookie of the year because that was 5 years ago, and he’s regressed since then.
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In comment 16076219 speedywheels said:
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Which is technically true of course, but that was in 2019. FOUR years ago, which - in the world of football - is a lifetime ago.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Wow… this is dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Let’s take away Barkley’s Offensive Rookie of the year because that was 5 years ago, and he’s regressed since then.
How has Barkley regressed since? He had injury plagued seasons. But, last year, his first healthy since his rookie year, was one of the top RB seasons in 2022. He returned to being an elite RB.
If you think Barkley is the same as his rookie season, then I got a bridge to sell you.
I like Lamar. I think he is a talent and can take a team up a level. He is likely worth $45-$50 per year. Until there is cap relief for injured players on IR, guaranteed contracts of that size will be few(one) and far between. You cannot have a cap, and pay players enormous contracts who may end up on IL for a year or year and a half. Perhaps teams should be afforded relief for guys with injuries like ACLs to allow them to adjust their cap to be competitive.
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Which is technically true of course, but that was in 2019. FOUR years ago, which - in the world of football - is a lifetime ago.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Wow… this is dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Let’s take away Barkley’s Offensive Rookie of the year because that was 5 years ago, and he’s regressed since then.
Dumbest shit you've ever seen?? Hmmm, let's review the facts, shall we?
His stats are all lower than his MVP season; some of them significantly. Fact
He's missed 10 games the last two seasons. Fact.
He's asking for a lot of guaranteed money. Fact.
Any team trading for him would have to give up significant draft capital. Fact.
And yet, all those facts amount the "dumbest shit" you've seen.
You fucking dumbass...
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In comment 16076219 speedywheels said:
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Which is technically true of course, but that was in 2019. FOUR years ago, which - in the world of football - is a lifetime ago.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Wow… this is dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Let’s take away Barkley’s Offensive Rookie of the year because that was 5 years ago, and he’s regressed since then.
Dumbest shit you've ever seen?? Hmmm, let's review the facts, shall we?
His stats are all lower than his MVP season; some of them significantly. Fact
He's missed 10 games the last two seasons. Fact.
He's asking for a lot of guaranteed money. Fact.
Any team trading for him would have to give up significant draft capital. Fact.
And yet, all those facts amount the "dumbest shit" you've seen.
You fucking dumbass...
Oh, and PS - I never said we should "take away" his MVP season. I said it was four years ago, which is an eternity in football lifetime.
And I'm not even sure why Barkley is being brought up here - is he asking for (in the neighborhood of) 200 million guaranteed? Would he cost some team 2 first round picks?
I'll say it again - fucking dumbass...
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In comment 16076284 JoeyBigBlue said:
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In comment 16076219 speedywheels said:
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Which is technically true of course, but that was in 2019. FOUR years ago, which - in the world of football - is a lifetime ago.
The fact is, his stats have declined every year since then. And of course, he's missed 10 games in the last two seasons. For a guy who is mostly known for his running abilities, that is not a good sign at all.
Add in the fact he is asking for a boatload of guaranteed money and it will cost a good amount of draft capital, it's no wonder no one has expressed an interest to this point...
Wow… this is dumbest shit I’ve ever seen. Let’s take away Barkley’s Offensive Rookie of the year because that was 5 years ago, and he’s regressed since then.
Dumbest shit you've ever seen?? Hmmm, let's review the facts, shall we?
His stats are all lower than his MVP season; some of them significantly. Fact
He's missed 10 games the last two seasons. Fact.
He's asking for a lot of guaranteed money. Fact.
Any team trading for him would have to give up significant draft capital. Fact.
And yet, all those facts amount the "dumbest shit" you've seen.
You fucking dumbass...
Oh, and PS - I never said we should "take away" his MVP season. I said it was four years ago, which is an eternity in football lifetime.
And I'm not even sure why Barkley is being brought up here - is he asking for (in the neighborhood of) 200 million guaranteed? Would he cost some team 2 first round picks?
I'll say it again - fucking dumbass...
The fact of the matter he is a Former MVP. Because it was 4 years ago and in your personal opinion he’s not worth what he is asking, is fucking IRRELEVANT. If you don’t like that he’s a former MVP, then you can go fuck yourself.
I'll say it again - fucking dumbass...
Barkley is also on the NEFT. So yes, he would cost some team two first round picks.
Want to and can’t are two different things and no one wants to, but that’s somewhat irrelevant.
I'm just pointing out the escrow as a complicating factor for the Commanders as it relates to the sale of the franchise at the same time. The post I replied to was positioned to suggest that acquiring Jackson would make the Commanders a more attractive property for a new owner. I was just responding to counter that the escrow obligations might not be seen as a positive for a prospective buyer because it represents a substantial chunk of frozen cashflow immediately upon purchase of a multi-billion dollar asset.
Conversely, if Snyder escrows the funds and that escrow account transfers to the new owner with the sale of the team, it would be a massive windfall for the new owner to effectively get Jackson's contract for free (in terms of the new ownership's actual cash spent, not in cap terms of course).
I like Lamar. I think he is a talent and can take a team up a level. He is likely worth $45-$50 per year. Until there is cap relief for injured players on IR, guaranteed contracts of that size will be few(one) and far between. You cannot have a cap, and pay players enormous contracts who may end up on IL for a year or year and a half. Perhaps teams should be afforded relief for guys with injuries like ACLs to allow them to adjust their cap to be competitive.
Just like it was easy for people to hand out millions to DJ aim this site Orlovsky shows he's a moron. QBs should sit out and demand something a team refuses to offer? Easy for him to say don't play for 45 million dollars. Lol. Now if Jackson wants to be entitled to. It's his body and health.
But the reality is the guaranteed 3 years of cash is generational wealth people can't imagine. But again Jackson can feel how ever he wants about it but even if the owners are scum most of the time there is late going to be very very few people who will feel sorry for him not getting 230 million. And those people are pretty much his mom and him. He's entitled to be never play again. Or sit out. But for some clown at a desk to tell another guy what to do cracks me up. Thst career scrub would be signing that deal in a second
I like Lamar. I think he is a talent and can take a team up a level. He is likely worth $45-$50 per year. Until there is cap relief for injured players on IR, guaranteed contracts of that size will be few(one) and far between. You cannot have a cap, and pay players enormous contracts who may end up on IL for a year or year and a half. Perhaps teams should be afforded relief for guys with injuries like ACLs to allow them to adjust their cap to be competitive.
I think this is an interesting thought - the IR implications have never made that much sense with regard to the cap; they've always just seemed like the least bad option when the NFL considered potential cap loopholes.
IMO, the ability for teams to carry veterans on the practice squad, and for them to bring players back from IR in-season, should give the NFL an opportunity to revise the cap rules with regard to IR. They essentially have two parallel versions of IR now already (in the sense that players can either return or not), so why not have different cap implications for each option?
I would start with something as simple as 50% relief, prorated against games lost, for season-ending injuries only. IOW, if you lose a player for the season in week 1, you could seek cap relief equal to 47.222...% of that player's cap charge for that year (players' cap charges are already prorated across 18 weeks as it is, so this just uses that function - in this case, losing a player in week 1 would result in 17 weeks of relief out of 18 weeks of cap accounting, which is 94.444...% halved).
However, in doing so, you would officially rule that player out from returning that season. If you intend to even consider bringing the player back down the line, you have to carry his cap charge at full rate (at least until such time that you declare him out for the year; cap relief would not be retroactive). Would teams engage in gamesmanship to keep opponents guessing as to an injured player's status, or would they see greater benefit in picking up that cap space?
It would add an interesting wrinkle along with (IMO) a logical compromise that helps players get more guaranteed money while mitigating the cap risk on the team side.