Disclaimer: In any draft scenario, the draft value of the player has to match up with the spot, as always, forcing a pick at a position of need is a mistake.
I've been studying. Looking at prospects deeper, reading and doing mock drafts. What I've noticed is a couple of trends that I think are fairly realistic when considering recent draft trends and the relative deepness of some of the positions in this particular draft class.
One trend is a run on CBs in rounds 1 and 2. The class is deep, but there are multiple factors WRT the position as it pertains to the Giants:
1. The expiring contracts of Adoree Jackson (sans extension) and Darnay Holmes.
2. The relative lack of quality depth. They added Oruwariye and McCain, but both on 1-year deals, and they are basically dart throws. I believe the Giants have the room to draft two corners to the roster, and that it would probably be smart to do so.
3. The high cost of adding to the position in free agency, as it's a high dollar position.
Two other trends briefly: There is good WR depth in this class, and with many of the mocks I've seen and done, and I think there is some realism to this, there is good talent falling to the third and even top of the 4th. The Giants have also added a lot here, and currently have a passable receiving group with upside if Waller can stay on the field.
Quality Edge and DE is shallow, and if you don't take one by round 2, you might not get a player that can make an impact early.
As for strategy, I'm trying to look at what the Giants would need to do to compete at a high level in the East. IMO, the Giants need to establish a very strong defense. With what the Cowboys and Eagles have at the skill positions and at QB, it's unlikely the Giants will be able to beat them in shoot-out types of games. They need to stop these teams.
For these reasons, I wanted to do a mock where I prioritized the defense. If I could help, although I love some receivers that were available early, if I could get a quality defensive player instead, that's the way I wanted to go, and decided if I could help it, unless the value was overwhelming, to wait until at least the 3rd round before going receiver.
I'd like this thread to be a discussion about the Giants' draft strategy, it doesn't need to be about the mock, but feel free to comment however you like. I did a 4-round mock on nfl mock draft database, which I've found to be the best so far in realism and user-satisfaction. I did not do any trades.
Pick #25: Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia - Starting to think Ringo getting a little bit undervalued. Starter on a National Championship defense. But more than that, he blends elite speed (4.36 40) and length/size for the position (6'2", 207 lbs). 15 PBUs and 4 INTS last 2 seasons. If I hit big here, I have a really good corner cost-controlled for 5 years, and he can push Flott to nickel work right away. Also considered Calijah Kancey (feel free to discuss), another guy I believe to be overlooked as a team fit, and like him more than Bresee.
Pick #57: Keion White, DE, Georgia Tech - White needs some
refinement, but there is tons of upside here. Checks all the boxes in terms of physical profile for a DE in our system, could replace Leonard Williams in 2024. 6'5", 285, long arms and hands, really strong. Just got better and better, very productive at GT, 54 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 15 TFLs. To me, this is a high value pick for what they have on the DL right now. They need to get quality on the field when Leo and Dexter Lawrence are getting a breather.
Pick #89: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee - I get what I hoped for, a quality receiver making it to my pick in the third. In truth, I do believe Tillman will go off the board in the 2nd. But it is not outside the realm of possibility he falls to this spot. Tillman brings elements the Giants don't have, a guy who can win with a blend of size and speed outside. 6'3", 213 lbs, long arms (nearly 33") and massive hands (10"). I could've taken Marvin Mims at this spot, but preferred the skillset and production against elite comp that Tillman has enjoyed.
Pick #128: Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina - Rush is another long defensive back with terrific speed. A lot of similarities to Ringo...also 6'2" and a shade under 200 lbs. Also with 15 PBUs the last two seasons, and also 4.36 speed. Another guy I like more outside, but a player that I can use on specials early in a variety of ways, and could compete to be a starter if I move on from Jackson in 2024.
I know there will be an objection because at this point, no IOL. However, the draft value wasn't there in the third for me to get a guy, and the plan would be to add bodies, perhaps bigger tackles I can move inside in the next couple of rounds. That said, I like what the Giants have on OL as a unit that can at least be functional for a year more than what we have in the secondary. If I hit on both corners, and Flott progresses, that's a lot of money saved for the following 3 seasons that I can shop for premium OL in free agency.
I also still don't think the Giants are as obsessed with getting a WR in the first round as Colin and some others seem to think they are. They certainly haven't been "shouting it from the rooftops." Schoen himself said that people have been too focused on WRs and that the team has enough holes that the day one and two picks will be BPA. I will admit I was wrong if it happens, but I don't think the Giants will trade more than a third to move up for a WR, and even then only for JSN or Flowers. The problem is that it would likely take a lot more than that to move up high enough to get either one. Doing that is just "shopping hungry." And why would anyone trade up for Johnson, Addison, or Hyatt, when at least one is very likely to be available at #25?
And while I’m probably more optimistic that Flott and Aaron Robinson could both be starters this year and next, I could see us using our #1 on the right CB for the reasons you stated.
As for a second defender drafted on day 2, I believe Leo has at least 3 or more years left in the tank, and am hoping a reasonable extension can keep him here, and if his snaps decline over time, as long as his salary reflects his usefulness. Drafting DL as opposed to Edge or ILB, could depend on any deal reached with A’Shawn Robinson. If it’s more than a one year deal, that would strengthen the line vs the run significantly, and with Roches and Davidson that would be 5 deep on the DL. So use that pick elsewhere on day 2, probably edge.
I also agree with Colin that they have been vocal about adding weapons for Jones. I’m one of the few that doesn’t believe in a labeling receivers 1,2 or 3s, but that you assemble players with certain skill sets to fit assignments in the scheme. Speedsters that can get separation deep will demand attention whether they’ve necessarily proven productive in the past or not. And that opens up the box for the run game and the underneath stuff. They have a bunch of these players now on short term deals, so they can run their offense. And that gives them the luxury to draft a WR or few later, since they don’t have to be impactful or start right away. I’m fine seeing a top WR on day 1, or a next tier guy on day 2. I think if they have the tools, even if not the production in college, our coaches can raise them up, and they provide better value on day 2 or later.
To summarize, I agree with you, and am hoping for / expecting RD 1 CB, RD 2 Edge/ DL and Rd 3 WR.
Day 3 backups and developmental players at WR, DB, Edge, RB, TE and an OL. (Will be very curious to see if they draft a C or continue to cross train guards).
“I think we want to continue to build the entire team. Again, I know a number one wide receiver can be important, but there’s some number one wide receivers that are home right now,” Schoen said. “You can go through this past weekend; you can go through a couple of weekends ago in the playoffs. A number one receiver doesn’t guarantee you anything.
“I think it’s important that we continue to build the team, and there’s multiple positions where we want to upgrade throughout the offseason. So, yeah, I’d love to have a number one wide receiver. But we’ve got to place value on everything we do, and if it makes sense, that’s something we’ll look to do.”
Kind of coach-speak word salad which I kind of read as we'd like to get a #1 but we are going to be smart about it. And then there was Daboll over the weekend on DJ: "That's just another step going into the offseason of adding more pieces. More players around him. And also him growing into the quarterback we think he can be."
Then we've had the draft process itself in which the Giants have appeared to put extra attention on only two players to date: Smith-Njigba and Flowers. Maybe its smoke, but at this point in the process there is no earthly reason for anyone watching the Giants to say they are likely to take a CB or even a C in the first other than that what they personally want the Giants to do.
The fact that they visited heavily with JSN is potentially really telling. He's a top 10-15 talent who is not going to be available at 25. A) You don't waste your time talking to the kid if you have no interest or realistic hope of getting him and B) if you do want him it means you're going to have to go up and get him.
Right now you guys would be having a much more realistic debate discussing where the top receivers are likely to come off the board and what it would take to get each.
For sure? I prefer “they may”. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if they don’t.
My guess, is that the staff values continuity. They had a full season to evaluate upwards of 20 Linemen last year if you include the bottom of the roster churn, and felt comfortable letting the two most likely Centers leave. The center position reads the defense and calls the protections. I doubt they are trusting that responsibility to a rookie. They have plans A, B and C lined up for this year, and will probably be adding a plan D in the draft, to groom for next year after a season at the NFL level and learning our system.
Stability, cohesion and development on the line, and new weapons at the receiver positions.
Optimus, I won’t be upset if they do take a Center earlier as you predict. But I will be surprised.
At the same time they have lost both of the centers on the roster and the interior OL is completely unsettled, and their RT was disappointing Year 1. (I expect improvement but the Giants have to self-scout well there.)
Meanwhile, the defense was 29th in DVOA and they've lost a starting safety from that defense to boot.
Defense is the right place to focus, if the board allows for it. I like the play here and if they can swing one of the better corners in the first round, I'm walking away quite happy. I also like Bresse and Kancey up front if either is available--neither is a traditional run stopper but both ooze potential.
If you look at this offseason they have signed 4 FA WR and traded for a TE. I think they will draft at least two more with probably a 1st and then a 3rd/4th, maybe 5th or if things don't break for them in the 1st then a 2nd and a 3rd.
Joe Schoen has shown he sets priorities. Seems he's doing it again this year.
Quote:
I also still don't think the Giants are as obsessed with getting a WR in the first round as Colin and some others seem to think they are.
And indeed shouting it from the rooftops was probably a little over the top, so let me rephrase: the Giants have been dropping hints thru the whole off-season that there #1 priority has been to get DJ more weapons. Here is Schoen's actual quote that Acid was referring to:
“I think we want to continue to build the entire team. Again, I know a number one wide receiver can be important, but there’s some number one wide receivers that are home right now,” Schoen said. “You can go through this past weekend; you can go through a couple of weekends ago in the playoffs. A number one receiver doesn’t guarantee you anything.
“I think it’s important that we continue to build the team, and there’s multiple positions where we want to upgrade throughout the offseason. So, yeah, I’d love to have a number one wide receiver. But we’ve got to place value on everything we do, and if it makes sense, that’s something we’ll look to do.”
Kind of coach-speak word salad which I kind of read as we'd like to get a #1 but we are going to be smart about it. And then there was Daboll over the weekend on DJ: "That's just another step going into the offseason of adding more pieces. More players around him. And also him growing into the quarterback we think he can be."
Then we've had the draft process itself in which the Giants have appeared to put extra attention on only two players to date: Smith-Njigba and Flowers. Maybe its smoke, but at this point in the process there is no earthly reason for anyone watching the Giants to say they are likely to take a CB or even a C in the first other than that what they personally want the Giants to do.
The fact that they visited heavily with JSN is potentially really telling. He's a top 10-15 talent who is not going to be available at 25. A) You don't waste your time talking to the kid if you have no interest or realistic hope of getting him and B) if you do want him it means you're going to have to go up and get him.
Right now you guys would be having a much more realistic debate discussing where the top receivers are likely to come off the board and what it would take to get each.
I think I came across too strong, and I'm sorry if I did. I value your opinion.
A few points:
(1) I thank that the Giants will draft a WR no later than day two. Signing Campbell, Slayton, and Smith doesn't change that. Those signings won't influence what the Giants do in the draft, nor should they.
(2) I think the Giants will draft either JSN or Flowers at #25, and I am fine with that. I might actually prefer Flowers because I'm leery of using a first round pick on a player (JSN) who barely played last year.
(3) I think JSN and Flowers will both go in the top 15. Trading up to 15 would be too expensive. As I said, I wouldn't trade more than a third to move up, and I don't think based on his comments that Schoen will either. If he does so, I will admit that I was wrong, but I certainly hope that doesn't happen. And if one does last past 15, there will likely be a "bidding war" to move up to get him, which of course just drives up the compensation.
(4) I don't think the Giants will move up for any other receiver, including Johnston, Addison, or Hyatt. One will likely be available at #25, and even if they aren't, there are plenty of good WRs who will be available on day two.
Some other possibilities include Banks, Porter, C. Smith, Van Ness, and N. Smith. Super darkorse pick: Gervon Dexter.
The Giants investigate and take a lot of players out to dinner.
As I said, he's very likely going top 15. It would likely take a two, three, and maybe a third draft pick, or next year's #1, to get into the top 15 to get him. I just don't see that happening. Focusing on one or two players is the essence of bad drafting.
In this particular mock, the centers I had as targets didn't represent value at the pick. I was hoping for one of Tippman or Wypler to make it to #89, but both went off the board in the 15 or so picks prior. John Michael Schmitz went at #47.
I would've taken any of those guys in the 3rd but the cupboard was pretty bare by then. Tillman was too good of a value for that spot. I agree, he's probably going to go before #89.
Couple of names that have been mentioned: Van Ness went at #12 in this mock, and JSN went #11.
Another thing about corner, beyond the obvious depth, is that the scheme we play may be an advantage in terms of finding a corner deeper in the draft. Most of the NFL is gravitating toward playing more off-coverage with a 2 high shell while Wink is prioritizing man press. That could result in player we value more than other clubs sliding down the board.
You can make the case that corner is more of a need than receiver, and coupled with the fact that there are really interesting names at receiver that should be available later, I put the emphasis on corner early in this case. As I said, I think the Giants need to build a championship defense to get past the Eagles and Cowboys. So I want guys who can cover and guys who can get after the QB, hence the picks that represented to me, good value in the first and second round.
Another thing about corner, beyond the obvious depth, is that the scheme we play may be an advantage in terms of finding a corner deeper in the draft. Most of the NFL is gravitating toward playing more off-coverage with a 2 high shell while Wink is prioritizing man press. That could result in player we value more than other clubs sliding down the board.
The recent trend in drafts are runs on corners early. So I really believe that the opposite is more likely true, that a couple of guys that are projectable at receiver can be had on Day 2 and even early Day 3, while the corners that can contribute early will go early and often.
If the Giants were picking earlier in the 2nd I'd feel better about waiting on corner. At pick 89, I think you're looking at 9 or 10 corners being off the board by then.
But in terms of what the Giants project in week 1:
Thomas-Ezeudu-Bredeson-Glowinski-Neal
With Lemieux, McKethan, and Wyatt Davis in tow for competition, you don't have to squint too hard to see that you can go to battle with that group, but in this scenario I would add depth pieces with the other picks on Day 3, and/or look for a value signing (Conner McGovern, Jets version, as one example). This affords some flexibility if, as in this case, the guys that represent value at the Giants' pick selections are taken off the board.
I think White is gone early 2nd round or late 1st but I like the thought of him with our 2nd round pick if somehow he falls.
I am a big Tillman fan and would be ecstatic if we could get him with our 2nd round pick let alone the 3rd. He will be a good one IMO.
I also think Center needs to be address prior to another CB.
Great effort!