to start the exercise first lets cover the compensation levels we are talking about. the most recent similar trade was the Jeff Okudah trade which brought back detroit a 5th round pick. both were top 10 picks in 2020, both coming off their best seasons where they flashed things clicking, both had 5yo declined so would essentially be 1 year deals. would arizona trade simmons for a 5th or even a 4th next year? i wouldn't if i were them but who knows. i certainly would if i were the giants. getting more creative would they swap him for a similar contract here like say darnay holmes? again i dont know but i would do that too because the nyg db room is all of a sudden reasonably deep and i dont really see holmes as good enough to get a second contract here. otc valued simmons on field production at $8m last year and they had okudah at $2m, so simmons will probably cost more than a 5th. so let's call a reasonable offer a 4th + holmes or a conditional 4th that goes up to a 3rd if simmons makes a pro bowl or if the nyg extend him.
in terms of cap, here's what it costs to trade for simmons per otc, a pretty modest 3m net increase over any other player:
so why trade for isaiah simmons? because he fits the mo of everything the nyg have done this offseason to raise the big play ceiling on the team and he'd be another monumental leap towards increasing team speed. i also believe he has a lot of upside if someone figures out how to use him better.
while he's underperformed relative to expectations there are 2 things simmons has proven to be:
1. a splash play machine.
last year he created:
4 turnovers - 2 ints / 2 ff (he had 1 int / 4 ff in 2021)
4 sacks, 1 batted pass, and 9 pressures in just 65 pass rush snaps
20 run stops
3 pbus
that's basically 2 negative plays per game last year between sacks, turnovers, run stops, pbus, etc.
2. a versatility unicorn
in a word, last year he aligned everywhere.
last year love was probably the most versatile player on the nyg defense, here's how his usage compared:
so with simmons baseline you are basically getting a bigger, faster julian love, who can rush the passer more productively and creates a lot more turnovers. he can play in the slot/box better than bobby mccain who is more of a deep safety and he can probably cover against the pass much better than jarad davis. he's also taking all the snaps that went to collins/jefferson in the box last year when love moved back to more deep coverage (which will probably be mccain's role this year).
the upside id be trying to tap into with simmons beyond that is on the pass rush. if you give him more pass rush snaps (like say the 200-300 pass rush snaps that went ximines last year as the 3rd rusher), if he stays anywhere close to as productive of a pass rusher as he's been over the 239 pass rush snaps so far in his career that could mean 7 sacks 32 pressures and probably some more forced fumbles - which would all be more than double ximines production last year in those snaps. here's a clip of him blowing up a 3rd/11 on a blitz vs daboll in 2020 as a rookie.
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remember hasaan reddick was also once considered a steve keim first round bust who got his 5yo declined.
i agree with that, but same was true of okudah and in az it's a new coaching regime.
players whose 5yo get declined do generally become trade fodder. not all of them but id say if you looked at the likelihood of players whose 5yo get declined compared to regular players it's probably more than twice as common (and maybe a lot more than that).
Could also be a guy Giants go after via UFA next offseason.
Not to mention, why would they trade a guy who is so versatile and is improving? My guess is they want to work out a lesser deal for the 5th year (and likely another year or two).
Not to mention, why would they trade a guy who is so versatile and is improving? My guess is they want to work out a lesser deal for the 5th year (and likely another year or two).
very possible they dont want to trade him. but declining the 5yo would indicate that they aren't invested in him.
we can look at all the draft picks next year 2 ways, the way you looked at (they have a lot already), or that they are prioritizing getting future picks because like any other new coach the roster is going to transition and getting more picks is something they'd be interested in for players they arent invested in.
If Wink thinks he can utilize him that helps the D significantly and JS can make it work in all the big picture stuff than I would be in favor.
Young player creating negative plays and helping others to join in is a good thing imv.
I would expect they'd want at least a 2nd rounder for him if they trade him.
We need a solid ILB next to Okereke.
I would expect they'd want at least a 2nd rounder for him if they trade him.
that's possible. 12m for a lb isn't so different from what the nyg just gave okereke, who im sure the colts liked but also let walk. so point being if they liked him there wasnt a ton of risk with picking up his option unless they worried he was worth a lot less than that next year and then untradeable.
if the cardinals end up stinking this year and selling at the deadline, id imagine that would push the odds higher of just trying to get whatever draft picks they can.
Get him at his best value after Kyler Murray throws him under the bus.
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...they just don't want to guarantee over $12 million for him in 2024.
I would expect they'd want at least a 2nd rounder for him if they trade him.
that's possible. 12m for a lb isn't so different from what the nyg just gave okereke, who im sure the colts liked but also let walk. so point being if they liked him there wasnt a ton of risk with picking up his option unless they worried he was worth a lot less than that next year and then untradeable.
if the cardinals end up stinking this year and selling at the deadline, id imagine that would push the odds higher of just trying to get whatever draft picks they can.
If that's the case, I wouldn't be against the trade.
Trading for talent is smarter than signing UFAs in many ways. You don't lose out on comp picks, mainly. And if you get comp picks because your own players signed elsewhere, you can replenish your traded away picks with comp picks. That's the Eagles strategy.
one can dream right? (his contract is too much anyway)
I have previously suggested Rashaan Evans, and now we see that Patrick Queen could be available (he typed "Sheesh !!" when the Ravens drafted a Day Two linebacker Friday and then deleted anything Ravens related from his social media).
But looking at the Wink's D, I agree Simmons is the best LB fit.
An interesting point, Simmons is represented by David Mulugheta at Athletes First. Mulugheta was recently involved in Daniel Jones switching agents and getting his long term deal with the Giants.
As far as compensation, I think it would cost a 2024 4th rounder.
It you look at LBs drafted in the 1st round in the past few years, it often has much more to do with the 5th year cost than it does with the players ability and team contribution.
Simmons would have cost the Cardinals over $12 mil in his 5th had the option been accepted. This is why you don't draft a linebacker in Round One.
but if i was at all optimistic about that i probably would have picked up the option because even at 1x12m, i dont think his current level of play is untradeable. engram signed for about that much in jax and only returned a 5th rd comp pick so a 4th right now may be a better outcome than they can reasonably expect.
simmons situation is in some ways reminiscent of engram his last couple years here. there are some flaws but also enough promise that he was worth holding on to but also perpetually on the trade block. lb/te are not premium positions but they are premium position adjacent to edge/wr.
the biggest question in az with ossenfort and gannon is what's their plan? the most likely trade scenario would be if they are just looking to stockpile future picks. which may be what they are trying to do and why they havent given up hopkins yet despite the potential cost savings.
I think it comes down to how a team values a LB spot. Detroit did not see the value (according to Smith) and the Ravens did.
Players come from all over but impact players have often come in round 1.
The DC of the Ravens was Winks LB coach.
Ravens used a 2nd round pick on another this draft.
I think it comes down to how a team values a LB spot. Detroit did not see the value (according to Smith) and the Ravens did.
Players come from all over but impact players have often come in round 1.
The DC of the Ravens was Winks LB coach.
Ravens used a 2nd round pick on another this draft.
if the cards thought simmons had that kind of value they would have picked up his option if for no other reason then because they could trade him for a 2nd round pick.
they may think they still preserve that option in the future since the franchise tag at LB isn't far off the 5yo to keep the upside and limit the downside.
but if they thought he was worth that they would have picked up the option.
The downside to that that 5th year is if a injury occurs. So you can say they could trade him but some things have to align for that to happen imv outside finding a trading partner.
@rydunleavy
"Don't be surprised if #Giants trade another of their picks for a veteran player between now and the end of the draft.
He further went on to say he thinks it would be for CB or DL."
I know this isn't in line with CB or DL, but said this months ago-- Isaiah Simmons makes a ton of sense for them to get rid of and for us to take a flier on.
Financials:
- Due 6.6 mil this year, if traded they save 3.4 of that
- 5th year option deadline isn't until after the draft, but it would be 12 mil next year
Roster:
- Zaven Collins played 92.2% snaps
- Jalen Thompson 98.7% snaps
- Budda Baker 87.1% snaps
- Isaiah Simmons 80% snaps
- Cardinals Signed Kyzir White, Josh Woods, Zeke Turner, Krys Barnes all at LB--One starter guarantees, other three likely backup/ST's.
Coaches/GM:
- New GM, New Coach
- Gannon plays predominantly zone and the closest player to Simmons was Kyzir White...who is now on the Cardinals.
Summary:
Simmons is not the best safety or linebacker on his team. Not only are there new decision-makers on the team, but also the 2023 outlook with Kyler possibly starting on the PUP looks like a less than competitive year.
Now why would it make sense for the Giants?
Both linebacker and safety are currently needs for the Giants. Simmons has flavors of both and Wink's defensive approach seems like an ideal fit for a player that shouldn't be pigeon-holed into a specific role.[/quote]
This was a post pre-draft, but now that they have not picked up his 5th year option and drafted Pappoe (a player of a similar mold) on top of other players already on their roster who they signed, I think the tea leaves indicate he can be had.
While a first round/top 10 pedigree isn't nothing, this player is an off-ball linebacker who doesn't specialize in passrush. This is not a tier of player that is a premium asset and thus a 4th/5th round pick would seem to be sufficient.
I have previously suggested Rashaan Evans, and now we see that Patrick Queen could be available (he typed "Sheesh !!" when the Ravens drafted a Day Two linebacker Friday and then deleted anything Ravens related from his social media).
But looking at the Wink's D, I agree Simmons is the best LB fit.
An interesting point, Simmons is represented by David Mulugheta at Athletes First. Mulugheta was recently involved in Daniel Jones switching agents and getting his long term deal with the Giants.
As far as compensation, I think it would cost a 2024 4th rounder.
It you look at LBs drafted in the 1st round in the past few years, it often has much more to do with the 5th year cost than it does with the players ability and team contribution.
Simmons would have cost the Cardinals over $12 mil in his 5th had the option been accepted. This is why you don't draft a linebacker in Round One.
You can say this about any position. Of course you can draft a LB in Rd one. If they are worth it. You draft the player, not the position. If Simmons didn't fit in to their scheme or they had no clue as to what to do with him, and they still drafted him, that's on the Cardinals. Good coaches will know how to use a Swiss-army knife of a player. As you stated, he would fit Wink's scheme. I wouldn't mind seeing him in Blue.
GoDeep13 asshat info said one of their draft priorities was a Joker/Star player for the defense. That is what Simmons is. He can play LBer or safety, exceptional speed and long. He's versatile. What makes him not a fit for Wink's defense?
But think about the re-sign priorities...Dexter Lawrence, Andrew Thomas, Xavier McKinney...those are going to be big deals. You have to save at some positions.
Sorry, I meant Eric on LI
I'm with you that he is a versatile player, I think his biggest deficiency is processing and Wink seems to make assignments themselves simple. The area specifically that I think he would function is in RB/TE coverage, Zone Read Edge/Flat defender because other than speed/strength he doesn't have much of a pass rush plan. Not to say he couldn't be used to simulate pressure or on delayed blitz, but he's not a primary rusher by any means.
With Philly fairly exclusively running zone read, Dallas likely running a good amount of off tackle or zone read with Pollard and how frequently we got beat by outside zone, misdirection plays this seems like a necessary player.
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If you're looking at AZ, Collins is probably as big and fast as Simmons, also has underachieved, and has more time left on his contract. How do you feel about him?
Sorry, I meant Eric on LI
i like collins, he had a pick 6 last year that won me a week in fantasy football, but also for most of the reasons you mentioned but especially the contract which is why i would assume they have less interest in dealing him.
But think about the re-sign priorities...Dexter Lawrence, Andrew Thomas, Xavier McKinney...those are going to be big deals. You have to save at some positions.
or you let him walk and hopefully recoup the pick you gave up via comp pick a year later. the eagles made a similar move with CGJ.
whether or not you extend simmons would be entirely based on how he plays. i think he'd have to have a real big breakout to get extended (like 8+ sacks) but if he did that i think you'd probably want to extend him knowing you may not extend ojulari.
If they really think he isn’t good they should at least want to negotiate.
I think Okudah went for a 5th( yes I know he’s been injury prone).
If JS wants to he can spike up the terms. Maybe Simmons just needs an environment that uses his abilities properly; after all we are talking the Cardinals.
I wouldn't classify Simmons as a disappointing player at all. This is a player with 204 tackles the last two seasons, with 6 forced fumbles, 3 INTs (one returned for a 61-yard TD) 14 passed defensed, and 5.5 sacks. He's a budding star. I believe you're going to have to come off at least a 3rd round pick, and I would do it. A second round wouldn't be out of the question if you have a plan to lock him up on an extension.