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Talkin' Giants - LPG Updates the Saquon Barkley Situation.

Klaatu : 5/16/2023 8:14 am
Look, I know License Plate Guy is a polarizing figure here, so if you don't like him, just skip this thread. I'd rather not see it morph into another round of "bash him vs. defend him."

Quote:
00:00 Intro
3:45 Welcome LPG
5:50 Schedule Talk
9:00 Giants Draft Experience
20:50 Breakup w/ Nick Gates
23:25 John Michael Schmitz Dead Snap debate
24:30 Giants relationship with Patriots is strained
26:10 Fan Fest
30:50 Saquon Barkley Contract Status
37:00 Does Saquon Barkley sign an extension?
41:30 Other players extended
44:50 Expectations for 2023
48:30 Cool stuff

Link - ( New Window )
Turned it off  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 8:20 am : link
when he botched the 2x tag amount.
Only watched from  
section125 : 5/16/2023 8:51 am : link
the Barkley part on...good job. I like Talkin Giants, love the oline breakdowns.

Really does sound like Barkley and advisors effed up.
RE: Turned it off  
section125 : 5/16/2023 8:52 am : link
In comment 16117497 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
when he botched the 2x tag amount.


So off the top of his head he said $26 vs $22...
RE: RE: Turned it off  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 8:57 am : link
In comment 16117509 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16117497 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


when he botched the 2x tag amount.



So off the top of his head he said $26 vs $22...


For a super fan to go on a podcast, I’d expect him to know something that simple. And it’s a big different because I suspect what we offered in guarantees is at or less than 2 tag years.
RE: RE: RE: Turned it off  
section125 : 5/16/2023 9:05 am : link
In comment 16117511 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16117509 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16117497 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


when he botched the 2x tag amount.



So off the top of his head he said $26 vs $22...



For a super fan to go on a podcast, I’d expect him to know something that simple. And it’s a big different because I suspect what we offered in guarantees is at or less than 2 tag years.


The difference is a "long term" contract gets you guarantees beyond this year's tag. Sign a tag, get $10.1 mill, then get injured and nada after this year. He is not guaranteed a 2nd tag.
So say $16 mill guaranteed, now, is better than $10.1 mill. The whole a new contract has to be more than the two tags argument doesn't make sense when that 2nd tag is not guaranteed.
The answer seems obvious to me  
Ben in Tampa : 5/16/2023 9:11 am : link
3 year deal, slightly more guaranteed money that a 2x tag and no guaranteed money in the 3rd year
RE: RE: Turned it off  
ThomasG : 5/16/2023 9:15 am : link
In comment 16117509 section125 said:
Quote:
In comment 16117497 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


when he botched the 2x tag amount.



So off the top of his head he said $26 vs $22...


I just figured he was including incentives in his total to get to the higher amount. Not sure but I guess he could have just misspoke.

Interesting about Saquon not leaking the guaranteed amount though.
Section  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 9:16 am : link
You seem unwilling to entertain the possibility that the guarantees we offered weren’t that great, not sure why. And I use the $22m because like they said in the video, it’s an option and one with hard facts tied to it.

And if Barkley gets injured he doesn’t just get nothing. He’s in the same boat as Jacobs - a huge injury will likely destroy his stock but i minor one won’t, taking the all or nothing approach isn’t being honest.
RE: Section  
section125 : 5/16/2023 9:28 am : link
In comment 16117518 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
You seem unwilling to entertain the possibility that the guarantees we offered weren’t that great, not sure why. And I use the $22m because like they said in the video, it’s an option and one with hard facts tied to it.

And if Barkley gets injured he doesn’t just get nothing. He’s in the same boat as Jacobs - a huge injury will likely destroy his stock but i minor one won’t, taking the all or nothing approach isn’t being honest.


We have no ideas what the guarantees were - neither of us - but by the same token you are dismissing that the guarantees were inline with the RB contracts already in existence. The rumor is that Barkley wanted 4 years and the Giants offered 3. I believe that the 3/$37-39 was the offer - LPG said it was actually higher. Standard guarantees are about 60%, which would have been two years of tags.
But my actual point was I was surprised that you dismissed the interview over a minor error. It was a pretty decent interview, and while I heard the "error" too, it certainly didn't deter me from seeing if there were any more tidbits.
But everyone sees things differently.
I’m really not  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 9:38 am : link
go look at every Barkley thread, I explicitly say we don’t know the guarantees and that it’s the single most important factor, yet everyone just quotes the AAV like it matters.
Standard isn’t 60% either  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 9:42 am : link
it’s below 50% and that’s almost exclusively for nun tagged players, meaning, less incentive for the team to give a market deal.
Regardless of how you feel about LPG,  
robbieballs2003 : 5/16/2023 9:55 am : link
He does get information and he isn't one to just be spewing out info all the time.
RE: Regardless of how you feel about LPG,  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 10:06 am : link
In comment 16117539 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
He does get information and he isn't one to just be spewing out info all the time.


I’m indifferent, I think his info is interesting if for nothing else, to see the BBI reaction to them. But misquoting the 2x tag amount was strange. That said I did listen to the rest of the Barkley segment and they finished up with exactly what I’ve been saying - we don’t know the guarantees and fans quoting the AAV isn’t wise.
RE: RE: Regardless of how you feel about LPG,  
robbieballs2003 : 5/16/2023 10:21 am : link
In comment 16117546 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16117539 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


He does get information and he isn't one to just be spewing out info all the time.



I’m indifferent, I think his info is interesting if for nothing else, to see the BBI reaction to them. But misquoting the 2x tag amount was strange. That said I did listen to the rest of the Barkley segment and they finished up with exactly what I’ve been saying - we don’t know the guarantees and fans quoting the AAV isn’t wise.


All I am saying is that he may not be the most knowledgeable guy on specific subjects but he gets nuggets of information here and there. That is all.
What starting-caliber player that Schoen has so far….  
sb from NYT Forum : 5/16/2023 10:28 am : link
…makes you think that he would have scumbagged Barkley with less than 50% guaranteed money?
…Signed so far  
sb from NYT Forum : 5/16/2023 10:28 am : link
Sorry, bad editing
I'd heard last Fall  
JonC : 5/16/2023 10:37 am : link
SB's camp was looking for 4/64, fwiw. Not sure 3/42 gets it done, and tea leaves suggest it has not been offered either.
Tom Petty was correct  
AROCK1000 : 5/16/2023 10:51 am : link
The waiting is the hardest part....
I was certain Lamar Jackson and Baltimore would never get a deal done.....they did.
I am neutral on Saquon,and he will need to eat crow,in order to get said deal done,but I think most of us do not want Schoen to cave here.......
SB's in a tough spot now  
JonC : 5/16/2023 10:55 am : link
Scoring the deal he's looking for will require NYG to make an emotional decision in his favor, especially with the tag at $10M and the actual even lower. His camp is betting on a Mara/Tisch rescue.
RE: SB's in a tough spot now  
Racer : 5/16/2023 11:01 am : link
In comment 16117584 JonC said:
Quote:
Scoring the deal he's looking for will require NYG to make an emotional decision in his favor, especially with the tag at $10M and the actual even lower. His camp is betting on a Mara/Tisch rescue.


I'm thinking those full stadiums late in the season give the GM and head coach a lot of credibility if they choose to oppose the rescue.
Just make him play on the tag  
Doubledeuce22 : 5/16/2023 11:02 am : link
and let him walk next year. Eric Gray and a draft pick next year will absolutely be fine and cost peanuts and the Giants won't have to worry about Barkley getting hurt like always. It's a no brainer.
RE: RE: SB's in a tough spot now  
JonC : 5/16/2023 11:12 am : link
In comment 16117586 Racer said:
Quote:
In comment 16117584 JonC said:


Quote:


Scoring the deal he's looking for will require NYG to make an emotional decision in his favor, especially with the tag at $10M and the actual even lower. His camp is betting on a Mara/Tisch rescue.



I'm thinking those full stadiums late in the season give the GM and head coach a lot of credibility if they choose to oppose the rescue.


Sure, but I think the player ask will still have to come down significantly. $13 AAV splits the difference, let's see if talks restart and get there.
RE: RE: RE: Turned it off  
Optimus-NY : 5/16/2023 11:15 am : link
In comment 16117517 ThomasG said:
Quote:
In comment 16117509 section125 said:


Quote:


In comment 16117497 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


when he botched the 2x tag amount.



So off the top of his head he said $26 vs $22...



I just figured he was including incentives in his total to get to the higher amount. Not sure but I guess he could have just misspoke.

Interesting about Saquon not leaking the guaranteed amount though.


That bit about Saquon's side not leaking the guaranteed amount was interesting indeed.
Schoen holds all of the cards  
Optimus-NY : 5/16/2023 11:19 am : link
There will be no deus-ex-machna effect from Giants' ownership this time on Barkley's behalf. His agent, Kim Miale, screwed him. She's in face-saving mode at this point. Saquon himself will need to step in and check her for this to get done and he'll have to eat crow, as another poster said earlier in this thread. He shouda taken the deal that was offered to him during the bye week last season.
RE: Schoen holds all of the cards  
Thegratefulhead : 5/16/2023 11:35 am : link
In comment 16117597 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
There will be no deus-ex-machna effect from Giants' ownership this time on Barkley's behalf. His agent, Kim Miale, screwed him. She's in face-saving mode at this point. Saquon himself will need to step in and check her for this to get done and he'll have to eat crow, as another poster said earlier in this thread. He shouda taken the deal that was offered to him during the bye week last season.
This is reality
if Barkley looks at the  
Dave on the UWS : 5/16/2023 11:46 am : link
"Wonderful" job his agent has done for her last 4 clients, he should step in NOW. Schoen, by his own admission, is NOT a patient guy. Every day this drags on, Barkley loses some good will with Joe. It doesn't help his bargaining position. The deal he was offered during the bye week and then right after the season, are the best ones he will ever see. If they think Mara and Tisch are going to step in, I suspect it will be over Schoen's dead body. He doesn't operate that way.
Barkley may have done us a real favor by turning down that deal  
ThomasG : 5/16/2023 11:46 am : link
during last season. It will be interesting if it ever does get leaked what those guarantee $s were and the overall deal. Not sure this Giant fan would have been happy with Joe Schoen's decision at the time.
RE: if Barkley looks at the  
Optimus-NY : 5/16/2023 12:03 pm : link
In comment 16117626 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
"Wonderful" job his agent has done for her last 4 clients, he should step in NOW. Schoen, by his own admission, is NOT a patient guy. Every day this drags on, Barkley loses some good will with Joe. It doesn't help his bargaining position. The deal he was offered during the bye week and then right after the season, are the best ones he will ever see. If they think Mara and Tisch are going to step in, I suspect it will be over Schoen's dead body. He doesn't operate that way.


+1
RE: Barkley may have done us a real favor by turning down that deal  
Optimus-NY : 5/16/2023 12:04 pm : link
In comment 16117627 ThomasG said:
Quote:
during last season. It will be interesting if it ever does get leaked what those guarantee $s were and the overall deal. Not sure this Giant fan would have been happy with Joe Schoen's decision at the time.


His side did do the NYG a favor by turning down the deal at that time.
Barkley is a health risk  
larryflower37 : 5/16/2023 12:09 pm : link
I love the guy and emotionally I want him to retire a Giant but my brain tells me anything more than the tag is too much of a risk. Let him play it out and if he has a great year look at 2 year deal or tag him again.
Long term deals are a kiss of death for 26 yr old RBs with multiple lower body injuries.
RE: if Barkley looks at the  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 12:09 pm : link
In comment 16117626 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
"Wonderful" job his agent has done for her last 4 clients, he should step in NOW. Schoen, by his own admission, is NOT a patient guy. Every day this drags on, Barkley loses some good will with Joe. It doesn't help his bargaining position. The deal he was offered during the bye week and then right after the season, are the best ones he will ever see. If they think Mara and Tisch are going to step in, I suspect it will be over Schoen's dead body. He doesn't operate that way.


I agree. But the caveats are that he turned down that deal hoping and potentially expecting not to get tagged (used instead for Jones). If true it’s a gamble he took knowing he’d then get tagged and can either sign that and workout the same or a bit less of the deal with NYG, or try again for a UFA deal in 2024.

I don’t think this is on the agent. Barkley is a big boy who can read contract historicals just like we can and he knew he’d get a better offer in free agency if he made it there. He didn’t and here we are. It’s now about how much risk Barkley wants to take on and I don’t expect anything to change until July.
RE: Schoen holds all of the cards  
RCPhoenix : 5/16/2023 12:09 pm : link
In comment 16117597 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
There will be no deus-ex-machna effect from Giants' ownership this time on Barkley's behalf. His agent, Kim Miale, screwed him. She's in face-saving mode at this point. Saquon himself will need to step in and check her for this to get done and he'll have to eat crow, as another poster said earlier in this thread. He shouda taken the deal that was offered to him during the bye week last season.


100%. Why he hasn't fired his agent yet is beyond me. Being loyal to someone who so badly misjudged the market doesn't seem like a winning strategy to me.
.  
ChrisRick : 5/16/2023 12:19 pm : link
Hopefully soon the Giants can get in on the action of finding a RB for cheap that significantly out-produces their contract. This is something that is easily done by all the other teams.
That's the hook  
JonC : 5/16/2023 12:25 pm : link
somewhere between managing fan blow back on moving on from SB, and ownership potentially stepping in to broker a deal. So far, it seems to lean to the former.
RE: That's the hook  
section125 : 5/16/2023 12:30 pm : link
In comment 16117666 JonC said:
Quote:
somewhere between managing fan blow back on moving on from SB, and ownership potentially stepping in to broker a deal. So far, it seems to lean to the former.


The players know it is a business, but player blow back on losing Barkley should not be underestimated more than fan blow back...After Jones, Barkley is the most important captain just ahead of Dex(IMV).
At this point I'd rather him play on the tag personally  
Rudy5757 : 5/16/2023 2:08 pm : link
but Im pretty indifferent. We are a better team with him but also we could use that money in other areas to possibly improve more. Some think he is most of the Giants O and I disagree. The last half of the season he was not a big part of the O, DJ stepped up and made the plays. Barkley had moments but didnt have a play over 30 yards in like the last 14 games of the season and his biggest play was in game 1.

I dont hate the guy but I also dont think he is worth nearly what McCaffrey got. 1 great season (Rookie), 1 very good season(last season) and 1 good season in 5 years. Yes the injuries hurt him but I dont think he'll ever be the player he was as a rookie. A long term deal is a bad bet imo. I think we play out the season, see what we have in the rookie and move on from Barkley next season for cheaper options unless he has a monster season.
I'm no expert, but  
BlackLight : 5/16/2023 4:52 pm : link
Barkley firing his agent at this point strikes me as strictly punitive. Maybe that's what's deserved, given how badly they miscalculated the market for him. And maybe Barkley doesn't want his agent collecting a commission on the crummy deal he does ultimately agree to.

But hiring a new agent is not going to get him a better deal. Schoen doesn't need to re-negotiate from the FT. Getting a team-friendlier contract with Saquon is a luxury, not a necessity. He seemed perfectly willing to let Barkley play out the year on the FT, and make other more priority moves to free up cap space.
RE: Just make him play on the tag  
Gman11 : 5/16/2023 4:55 pm : link
In comment 16117587 Doubledeuce22 said:
Quote:
and let him walk next year. Eric Gray and a draft pick next year will absolutely be fine and cost peanuts and the Giants won't have to worry about Barkley getting hurt like always. It's a no brainer.


How do you know that Gray and/or draft pick won't get injured?
RE: The answer seems obvious to me  
djm : 5/16/2023 4:55 pm : link
In comment 16117514 Ben in Tampa said:
Quote:
3 year deal, slightly more guaranteed money that a 2x tag and no guaranteed money in the 3rd year


same here
RE: I’m really not  
djm : 5/16/2023 4:58 pm : link
In comment 16117528 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
go look at every Barkley thread, I explicitly say we don’t know the guarantees and that it’s the single most important factor, yet everyone just quotes the AAV like it matters.


again, same here. Every time I friend texts me this nonsense about what BArkley turned down I keep saying save me the BS, this is all noise.

"BUT HE TURNED DOWN 14 per!!!"

It's all about the guaranteed money and more often than not NO ONE, NOT Joe Blow, not LPG, not you, not me, NO ONE knows WTF the Giants or anyone offers a FA as far as guaranteed money!!!

So many do not learn anything from any of these negotiations. You'd think the Jones thing would help people.
Barkley wasn’t a UFA  
UConn4523 : 5/16/2023 4:59 pm : link
so he didn’t get to truly test the market. Are you all suggesting his agent told him not to sign because he’d get a better deal in FA? Let’s say that’s true, wouldn’t he actually need to hit Free Agency? Barkley rolled the dice on not getting tagged, that’s on him. And he was about an hour away from making the correct decision. So how is it the agents fault?
I believe Love and Barkley are examples  
rasbutant : 5/16/2023 6:20 pm : link
Joe is making examples out of them for future contracts. Slayton as well.

Joe makes a fair offer, but is not going to allow you to shop that offer. If you choose to try to shop it he is going to move on, at which time he isn’t interested anymore or the offer will be reduced. Also, with Slayton he is making a statement that if you do things the right way, don’t complain about it and go out and prove it on the field he will reward you. Don’t forget Slayton took a pay cut at the start of the season and then they signed him to a big contract.

I do believe they can come to agreement with Barkley but it will be on Joe terms and the previous offer is gone. I do believe he will be fair, but the RB market changed even more this offseason, not in Barkleys favor.
He also said  
mittenedman : 5/16/2023 6:22 pm : link
everyone fully expected Barkley to sign during the bye week, and when he didn't, Schoen was legit pissed off, and still is. You can see the attitude he has about it now.
RE: RE: I’m really not  
renzocapone : 5/18/2023 4:38 am : link
In comment 16117856 djm said:
Quote:
In comment 16117528 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


go look at every Barkley thread, I explicitly say we don’t know the guarantees and that it’s the single most important factor, yet everyone just quotes the AAV like it matters.



again, same here. Every time I friend texts me this nonsense about what BArkley turned down I keep saying save me the BS, this is all noise.

"BUT HE TURNED DOWN 14 per!!!"

It's all about the guaranteed money and more often than not NO ONE, NOT Joe Blow, not LPG, not you, not me, NO ONE knows WTF the Giants or anyone offers a FA as far as guaranteed money!!!

So many do not learn anything from any of these negotiations. You'd think the Jones thing would help people.

That's interesting. Is it even possible to see the terms of the contract somewhere? Or is this insider information and not intended for the general public?
 
christian : 5/18/2023 8:30 am : link
Barkley is in a tough spot. In a normal big time deal, the currency a player can trade for premium guarantees is more years (and all the benefits to the team: control, cap inflation, runway).

But that's probably not very valuable to Schoen. He knows the data doesn't support the odds of Barkley being valuable in 3, 4, 5 years from now.

When Schoen says to Team Barkley I'm comfortable paying 10M this year and seeing how that goes, what's the compelling counter?
The longer Barkley waits to accept the offer on the table  
AJ23 : 5/18/2023 1:29 pm : link
the better it is for us. The team has all of the leverage. Be patient.
RE: …  
Thegratefulhead : 5/18/2023 3:23 pm : link
In comment 16118911 christian said:
Quote:
Barkley is in a tough spot. In a normal big time deal, the currency a player can trade for premium guarantees is more years (and all the benefits to the team: control, cap inflation, runway).

But that's probably not very valuable to Schoen. He knows the data doesn't support the odds of Barkley being valuable in 3, 4, 5 years from now.

When Schoen says to Team Barkley I'm comfortable paying 10M this year and seeing how that goes, what's the compelling counter?
He could hold out and watch a rookie do well in his spot.
RE: RE: …  
Gatorade Dunk : 5/18/2023 3:43 pm : link
In comment 16119253 Thegratefulhead said:
Quote:
In comment 16118911 christian said:


Quote:


Barkley is in a tough spot. In a normal big time deal, the currency a player can trade for premium guarantees is more years (and all the benefits to the team: control, cap inflation, runway).

But that's probably not very valuable to Schoen. He knows the data doesn't support the odds of Barkley being valuable in 3, 4, 5 years from now.

When Schoen says to Team Barkley I'm comfortable paying 10M this year and seeing how that goes, what's the compelling counter?

He could hold out and watch a rookie do well in his spot.

That only strengthen's Schoen's position even further. I think Christian is asking what Barkley can do to entice the Giants to put a multiyear offer back on the table.

I think SB was really counting on DJ getting tagged - that would at least have forced a negotiation of some sort to remain ongoing. Once DJ signed, I don't think SB had any move left to make here besides hope. And hope is not a viable strategy.
He already executed his strategy  
UConn4523 : 5/18/2023 5:34 pm : link
now he waits. If he still doesn’t like our offer he plays on the tag and either plays next year for $12m with us or hits UFA. I think the fans are making this more than what it is.
RE: He already executed his strategy  
christian : 5/18/2023 7:53 pm : link
In comment 16119320 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
now he waits. If he still doesn’t like our offer he plays on the tag and either plays next year for $12m with us or hits UFA. I think the fans are making this more than what it is.


You think his strategy was get tagged, and risk playing with no future guaranteed money?
No  
UConn4523 : 5/18/2023 7:58 pm : link
his strategy was to become a UFA and he was about an hour away from it. You win some you lose some. So now it just comes down to what contract offer exists from the Giants, will it get any better between now and July, and if not play on the tag and move forward.

My point above was there’s nothing more that can be done to change anything. The chips have already fallen and he’s got some time to think about how he wants to move forward. It’s pretty straight forward right now.
 
christian : 5/18/2023 8:21 pm : link
Gotcha, I agree it's simple from here out.

I'm not sure his strategy was UFA. I bet it was hope things fall apart with Jones, and corner the Giants into a favorable deal, because they needed the tag for Jones.
Yeah I agree  
UConn4523 : 5/18/2023 8:48 pm : link
if he hit free agency that means we tagged Jones so I think we are saying the same thing. And from there we either increase our offer or he gets top dollar elsewhere.
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