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NFT: Rays at Mets Game 1. Verlander

ZGiants98 : 5/16/2023 6:26 pm
Mets Lineup

Nimmo CF
Lindor SS
McNeil 2B
Alonso 1B
Pham DH
Marte RF
Baty 3B
Canha LF
Alvarez C
-
Verlander P

Rays Lineup

Ramirez 1B
Franco SS
B. Lowe 2B
Arozarena LF
Paredes 3B
J. Lowe DH
Margot RF
Bethancourt C
Siri CF

Beeks SP

We are facing another lefty. Yuck. David Peterson down. Josh Walker up (added to 40). Verlander's home debut. LGM!
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somewhat encouraging***  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 1:25 pm : link
Quote:
SNY_Mets's avatar
SNY Mets @SNY_Mets
20m
Mark Vientos is likely to be in the lineup tonight for the Mets, per @martinonyc

Buck Showalter will make the final decision later today


**pending buck's final decision
RE: Rocker  
Named Later : 5/17/2023 1:25 pm : link
In comment 16118357 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
TJ, Anthony Kay 5.51 era in the Cubs system, Dunn out for maybe the season, Flexen era over 7.00, Adam Hill yet to pitch in 2023 Ginn 8.31 FIP/12.83 era, Wolf 6.74 FIP... Indian burial ground?


Last time I checked, Holderman was struggling in the Pirates Pen. Still rather have him in the minors, than Vogey as DH.

What about the posse that Eppier gave up for Ruf ? I saw where Szapucki has what appears to be Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. I thought Zwick was decent in the Mets farm system.

I just hope their Minor League Pitching Co-Ord can develop some of the young talent.
.  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 1:25 pm : link
Golden Sombrero for Alex Ramirez (0-4 4 k's), Parada 0-3, Lugo 2-3 SB, Consuegra 1-3, 2b, 2 k's #Mets
RE: RE: Rocker  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 1:28 pm : link
In comment 16118477 Named Later said:
Quote:
In comment 16118357 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


TJ, Anthony Kay 5.51 era in the Cubs system, Dunn out for maybe the season, Flexen era over 7.00, Adam Hill yet to pitch in 2023 Ginn 8.31 FIP/12.83 era, Wolf 6.74 FIP... Indian burial ground?



Last time I checked, Holderman was struggling in the Pirates Pen. Still rather have him in the minors, than Vogey as DH.

What about the posse that Eppier gave up for Ruf ? I saw where Szapucki has what appears to be Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. I thought Zwick was decent in the Mets farm system.

I just hope their Minor League Pitching Co-Ord can develop some of the young talent.


Zwack 5.12 FIP/6.17 era (in fairness, he's been unlucky with a .349 BABIP. 10.03 K/9.

Seymour 3.46 era/4.77 FIP

And as we know JD Davis = outstanding for SF
RE: RE: Rocker  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 1:29 pm : link
In comment 16118477 Named Later said:
Quote:
In comment 16118357 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


TJ, Anthony Kay 5.51 era in the Cubs system, Dunn out for maybe the season, Flexen era over 7.00, Adam Hill yet to pitch in 2023 Ginn 8.31 FIP/12.83 era, Wolf 6.74 FIP... Indian burial ground?



Last time I checked, Holderman was struggling in the Pirates Pen. Still rather have him in the minors, than Vogey as DH.

What about the posse that Eppier gave up for Ruf ? I saw where Szapucki has what appears to be Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. I thought Zwick was decent in the Mets farm system.

I just hope their Minor League Pitching Co-Ord can develop some of the young talent.


Holderman has been very good. 2.49 FIP 10.7 K/9
holderman has a 2.8 era in 16 inn and has been a steady 8th inn guy  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 1:33 pm : link
his xera is 3.59 each of the last 2 years. he has pitched very similarly to drew smith.

if we could reverse that one i think we would given the injury to diaz.

RE: RE: RE: Megill 35 MLB starts  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 1:34 pm : link
In comment 16118413 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 16118411 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16118409 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


4.55 FIP 4.8 innings per start. Command comes and goes, doesn't go deep into games despite his frame. Would love to be proven wrong but I'd be very surprised if that's the case here. He's just a guy.



he's never thrown innings so agreed. they've needed extra depth this year so right now he's starting more out of necessity than anything else but just like last year they should start planning to try him as a RP and hope his stuff can play up a little bit.



I think the odds are significantly better (but not a given) that if he's allowed to throw 1-2 inning bursts his stuff will play up. He seems better in theory (frame etc) as a SP than in performance.


Agreed. Ideally, Megill is a bullpen guy, where I think he could excel. My point was that's all they really have in terms of young(ish) starting pitching. Senga, Megill (who I agree is not ideal as a SP), and looks like Vasil down the line
.  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 1:37 pm : link
Parada 1-4, 2b (1/5 throwing out runners), Ramirez 0-5 #Mets
RE: RE: probably a focus on college pitchers too  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 1:41 pm : link
In comment 16118407 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16118398 KDavies said:


Quote:


next year Mets will have Baty, Alvarez, and Vientos full-time. Hopefully they will have had their adjustment period. Mauricio in the mix as well. Young guys in Ramirez, Jett, Parada, etc. And a desperate need for pitching. I'm all about BPA in the MLB draft, but damn they need some pitching desperately. Vasil looks like he may be an answer. Megill at the back end. Thought Peterson would be fine at 4 or 5, but that is in serious doubt to put it mildly.

So Senga and Megill as the only younger guys at the MLB level, with Vasil the closest thing to a sure thing on the minor league level. Everyone else is elderly in baseball terms, or a huge question mark



it may be better to just keep drafting first round hitters and eventually trade them for someone else's pablo lopez/luis castillo/giolito types at the deadline as rentals since we know cohen will spend to keep the right guys.

and obviously signing ohtani would be very helpful to the cause.

a giolito/hendriks megadeal headlined by a parada or ramirez (or vientos if he isn't helping this year) is something we'd have to consider.


Will be interesting to see which way the Mets go. On one head, they are a built to win team with a rotation headlined by aging veterans Verlander and Scherzer. On the other hand, they are transitioning to a bunch of younger players. I looked ahead to June's schedule, and it is not easy, particularly when you consider they can't beat the likes of the Rockies, Tigers, Reds, and Nationals right now.

I'd hate for them to trade away top young prospects like Vientos, Parada, or Jett again to make a run, and then miss the playoffs, or be a quick exit. But at the same time, it's kind of hard to not seize the opportunity of having Verlander and Scherzer.

Mets luck, we know how it will go. Verlander and Scherzer will be dealing, Mets will make some deals, one or both of them gets injured, season goes down the toilet.
im not worried about schedule & i think theyll be able to find innings  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 1:51 pm : link
eaters to fill gaps so long as scherzer/senga/verlander/robertson project to be healthy for playoffs.

the whole thing comes down to the every day players. they need to get on track and develop an identity that's not comfortably numb.

they have no identity whatsoever right now and on the season. pray alonso homers i guess?

it's a lot to place on the kids but 1 of these 3 could be what they need to spark them to an identity. they wont change things by themselves - canha/marte need to step up, narvaez coming back should help, bench guys need to also contribute (remember when Guillorme was hitting .400 last year?). but they need someone other than lindor/alonso talented enough to drive in runs like michael harris did in atlanta last year. the 3 kids are it and baty may already be halfway there.

if 2 or 3 of the kids step up that's when things could really snowball (in a good way).
here's another way of looking at the every day group  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 2:09 pm : link
Nimmo (2nd CF),
Alonso (8th 1b),
Lindor (6th ss),
McNeil (7th 2b)

are all top 25% at their positions in terms of productivity. and that's despite all of them not playing great.

the issue is the other 5 spots have been average or below. that is the problem.

Baty and Alvarez have gotten 3b/c heading in a better direction. hopefully vientos does the same at DH.

canha and marte are 2 of the bigger disappointments through 1/4 of the year. marte is the 22nd RF and a -.2 fwar right now. canha is 24th LF and a 0.0 fwar right now. they are both well below replacement level.

the degree to which they can add more production from 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 of those positions will determine how far they go this year. canha and marte finding their form from last year could be a 5-8 win impact the rest of the year that gets them from exactly where they are now to in a wild card with nothing else.
a little surprised by this but i dont disagree  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 2:20 pm : link
Quote:
Andy Martino @martinonyc
Mets will option Guillorme for Vientos per source


after just getting done trashing canha/marte it's not unfair to say that recent cold streak notwithstanding pham has better underlying numbers than both of them.
RE: a little surprised by this but i dont disagree  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 2:34 pm : link
In comment 16118512 Eric on Li said:
Quote:


Quote:


Andy Martino @martinonyc
Mets will option Guillorme for Vientos per source



after just getting done trashing canha/marte it's not unfair to say that recent cold streak notwithstanding pham has better underlying numbers than both of them.


It gives them another OF, and they don't have to get rid of a player. I get it. Plus Guillorme can play every day and hopefully get his bat going.

I was one of the more patient ones in terms of bringing up the young guys, and my biggest reason for it was organizational depth. Pham may get going. If he does you don't wind up cutting him, and then trading prospects for the same type of player before the deadline.
RE: a little surprised by this but i dont disagree  
Sammo85 : 5/17/2023 2:44 pm : link
In comment 16118512 Eric on Li said:
Quote:


Quote:


Andy Martino @martinonyc
Mets will option Guillorme for Vientos per source



after just getting done trashing canha/marte it's not unfair to say that recent cold streak notwithstanding pham has better underlying numbers than both of them.


It probably was a toss up between Vogelbach and Guillorme. Escobar is a switch hitter off bench who can play the positions and has more pop than Guillorme.

Canha and Pham can play all three OF spots and DH.

Holderman has been solid for Pirates and would be ideal fit in pen here. Just a simple but bad trade when it was made and it’s played out as such.

Hopefully Vogelbach is nearing his end here quickly later this month as roster retool options continue to become necessary. Epplers history list of questionable moves continue and definitely hoping Cohen sees how unfit he is for his job.

if eppler can help stearns bring in ohtani it will all be worth it  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:11 pm : link
in a way eppler actually fills a potentially important role under stearns since he has no experience with big $ free agency in milwaukee.

eppler has at least proved competent and credible wielding cohen's purse.

but i agree he has lost me as a potential singularly capable franchise leader for the long term. someone else needs to be the visionary of how to construct a roster.
wow curveball - vientos starting at 3b tonight  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:12 pm : link


escobar hit a homer last night, surprised if he wouldnt start him at 3b and vientos at DH.
Vientos  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 3:13 pm : link
starting at 3b and hitting 8th
RE: Vientos  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:14 pm : link
In comment 16118548 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
starting at 3b and hitting 8th


so do we think this is a 'throw him in so he's comfortable at 3b right away' or a subtle fu from buck because he feels like he got big footed here?

i kind of think it's the latter and an "if he's up here he needs to play d" type of thing.
RE: Vientos  
Metnut : 5/17/2023 3:15 pm : link
In comment 16118548 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
starting at 3b and hitting 8th


So he’s benching Baty for Vientos? I guess because it’s a lefty?
very interesting on Vientos  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 3:15 pm : link
have him on all 3 of my fantasy teams. 3B is a weak position, so would be great to get him eligibility there.

Vientos at 3B and Escobar at 2B was certainly not what I had my money on.
of course buck benches 2 guys who hit hrs yesterday and play 3b well  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:17 pm : link
to start vientos at a position most think he's not very good at. very strange decision that seems almost passive aggressive.
RE: very interesting on Vientos  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:18 pm : link
In comment 16118553 KDavies said:
Quote:
have him on all 3 of my fantasy teams. 3B is a weak position, so would be great to get him eligibility there.

Vientos at 3B and Escobar at 2B was certainly not what I had my money on.


wow i totally missed that escobar was in at 2b too. i guess we said we wanted to see some changes. this is a very different lineup.
RE: of course buck benches 2 guys who hit hrs yesterday and play 3b well  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 3:18 pm : link
In comment 16118555 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
to start vientos at a position most think he's not very good at. very strange decision that seems almost passive aggressive.


Escobar is playing 2B
here we thought Pham would be jettisoned  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 3:19 pm : link
and he is in the 5 hole.

Can he be moved down in the lineup? Please?
RE: RE: very interesting on Vientos  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 3:20 pm : link
In comment 16118556 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16118553 KDavies said:


Quote:


have him on all 3 of my fantasy teams. 3B is a weak position, so would be great to get him eligibility there.

Vientos at 3B and Escobar at 2B was certainly not what I had my money on.



wow i totally missed that escobar was in at 2b too. i guess we said we wanted to see some changes. this is a very different lineup.


You didn't think of looking in the two-hole for Escobar?
This is why Buck wins manager of the year everywhere  
moespree : 5/17/2023 3:25 pm : link
And gets fired a few years later. I like most of you do not understand the lineup. It defies logic in a number of areas.

Eric, I'd hate to think you are correct and Buck would actually do that, but it wouldn't surprise me either.
RE: RE: RE: very interesting on Vientos  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:25 pm : link
In comment 16118561 KDavies said:
Quote:
In comment 16118556 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16118553 KDavies said:


Quote:


have him on all 3 of my fantasy teams. 3B is a weak position, so would be great to get him eligibility there.

Vientos at 3B and Escobar at 2B was certainly not what I had my money on.



wow i totally missed that escobar was in at 2b too. i guess we said we wanted to see some changes. this is a very different lineup.



You didn't think of looking in the two-hole for Escobar?


lol it would be funny if it wasnt all so batshit crazy.

josh flemming appears to be a really weird pitcher, he doesnt strike people out, he gives up hard contact, and he has issues with control.



not giving up a ton of loud contact appears to be his 1 good thing, he's tough to barrel so he doesn't give up as many homers as the rest of the quality of contact he allows (which is frequent since he's not k'ing anyone, and often with men on base since he's walking people often).

righties are hitting .290 off him with a near 800 ops.
so insert the mets max righty power lineup and hope they can barrel him up and knock him around?
yeah, it looks like an analytics geek  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 3:32 pm : link
lineup
this seems like a lineup with a built in excuse to change if it works  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:32 pm : link
if guys hit today tomorrow is totally going to be a max lefty day if the rays throw a righty regardless of what any of the plethora of righties do today. i guess the most benign interpretation today is buck is sending the "i use a full roster!" message?
RE: yeah, it looks like an analytics geek  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 3:33 pm : link
In comment 16118570 KDavies said:
Quote:
lineup


i think it's buck passive aggressively cosplaying an analytics geek.
RE: RE: yeah, it looks like an analytics geek  
KDavies : 5/17/2023 3:38 pm : link
In comment 16118573 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16118570 KDavies said:


Quote:


lineup



i think it's buck passive aggressively cosplaying an analytics geek.


Or it's a Yankees type move, where the front office nerds are doing lineups. Can't imagine Buck putting up with that. Boone he is not.
RE: RE: Vientos  
Optimus-NY : 5/17/2023 3:57 pm : link
In comment 16118550 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16118548 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


starting at 3b and hitting 8th



so do we think this is a 'throw him in so he's comfortable at 3b right away' or a subtle fu from buck because he feels like he got big footed here?

i kind of think it's the latter and an "if he's up here he needs to play d" type of thing.


I think it's the latter. No two ways about it. We know Buck...
Tommy Pham batting 5th  
Vanzetti : 5/17/2023 4:10 pm : link
Even Darin Ruf is laughing at that
RE: of course buck benches 2 guys who hit hrs yesterday and play 3b well  
Vanzetti : 5/17/2023 4:15 pm : link
In comment 16118555 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
to start vientos at a position most think he's not very good at. very strange decision that seems almost passive aggressive.



That's exactly what I think it is. Buck's ego can't take the criticism.

His ideal would be for Mets to win but have Vientos strikeout 4 times.
RE: RE: of course buck benches 2 guys who hit hrs yesterday and play 3b well  
Optimus-NY : 5/17/2023 4:38 pm : link
In comment 16118593 Vanzetti said:
Quote:
In comment 16118555 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


to start vientos at a position most think he's not very good at. very strange decision that seems almost passive aggressive.




That's exactly what I think it is. Buck's ego can't take the criticism.

His ideal would be for Mets to win but have Vientos strikeout 4 times.


Yes. Wouldn't surprise me. Real shame about Buck. There's a reason he's been fired from his previous jobs. He's as stubborn as a mule.
Walker  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 4:52 pm : link
era up to 6.53 for the Phillies
RE: Walker  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 5:04 pm : link
In comment 16118611 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
era up to 6.53 for the Phillies


22% hr/fb ratio, up to almost 2 homers per9. big regression from last year when he was under 1 per 9. walks also up.

it's a little bizarre but all the UFA pitchers they considered this offseason have basically regressed. bassitt, walker, taillon, heaney.

quintana hasn't pitched and he's still done less damage to his new team than some of those guys.
Bassitt  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 5:14 pm : link
has been MUCH better recently. Last 5 starts 33.2 innings 14 hits 6 er. In fact, he's been one of the better pitchers in baseball since Mid-April
Bassitt  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 5:16 pm : link
first start of the year 9 er. Bassitt last 5 starts 1.57 era, 6.64 innings per start
The important thing is  
allstarjim : 5/17/2023 5:16 pm : link
Vientos is up, and he's in the lineup.

Baty has been sitting occasionally against lefties, so this isn't extraordinary.

That said, I do have concerns that the first game against a righty starter, either tomorrow (Rays starting pitcher TBD), or Friday against Quantrill vs Cleveland, that we will see Vientos on the bench in favor of Vogelbach DH'ing. Vientos has destroyed both righties and lefties this year, this should not be a platoon situation:

Vientos vs RHP this year:

ABs: 113 BA: .327 OBP: .415 SLG .690 HR: 11 RBI: 33 OPS: 1.105

vs LHP:

ABs: 28 BA: .357 OBP: .419 SLG .679 HR: 3 RBI: 4 OPS: 1.098

Vientos needs to be in the lineup everyday, and I hope we see that.

Not  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 5:19 pm : link
to "defend" Heaney but he's had 2 horrendous starts (7 runs his first start, 6 runs May 3rd). His other 6 starts he allowed 0 runs twice, 1 run once and 3 or less in every start except those 2. If he did that here we'd be saying he was a good signing (at least right now).
I  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 5:20 pm : link
do not expect Vientos to play as much as you guys hope. I'd love to be wrong but I expect him to mostly play vs. lefties "only" unless he really forces the issue.
RE: Bassitt  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 5:23 pm : link
In comment 16118627 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
first start of the year 9 er. Bassitt last 5 starts 1.57 era, 6.64 innings per start


im still pretty surprised they didnt make more of an effort to bring him back. i know how the year ended but he was a steady #3.

carrasco was tradeable and quintana was optional so they could have easily afforded bassitt over those 2. though i guess predicting this level of bad luck was impossible and they got a pick out of it. and maybe they didn't love bassitt's routine?
RE: I  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 5:24 pm : link
In comment 16118633 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
do not expect Vientos to play as much as you guys hope. I'd love to be wrong but I expect him to mostly play vs. lefties "only" unless he really forces the issue.


if they play him against lefties only that will be a folly even worse than when they were benching alvarez early on. if that's how this goes eppler may need to pull a brad pitt and take away the alternatives.
To  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 5:27 pm : link
be clear, I'd love to be proven fully wrong. I'm not saying you guys are wrong about wanting him to play. I just get the feeling based on Buck's comments the plan now is for him to serve as some level of "matchup depth" aka DH/3b paired with Baty/Vogelbach vs. usurping Vogelbach. Would love to be wrong and have him get 75% of the DH AB's and sprinkled in at 1b/3b.
RE: RE: Bassitt  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 5:28 pm : link
In comment 16118638 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16118627 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


first start of the year 9 er. Bassitt last 5 starts 1.57 era, 6.64 innings per start



im still pretty surprised they didnt make more of an effort to bring him back. i know how the year ended but he was a steady #3.

carrasco was tradeable and quintana was optional so they could have easily afforded bassitt over those 2. though i guess predicting this level of bad luck was impossible and they got a pick out of it. and maybe they didn't love bassitt's routine?


They seemed so disinterested in bringing him back, makes me feel like there was more to it. Then again, they didn't seem that eager to bring back Walker and his reputation is stellar so who knows?
RE: RE: RE: Bassitt  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 5:30 pm : link
In comment 16118643 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 16118638 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16118627 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


first start of the year 9 er. Bassitt last 5 starts 1.57 era, 6.64 innings per start



im still pretty surprised they didnt make more of an effort to bring him back. i know how the year ended but he was a steady #3.

carrasco was tradeable and quintana was optional so they could have easily afforded bassitt over those 2. though i guess predicting this level of bad luck was impossible and they got a pick out of it. and maybe they didn't love bassitt's routine?



They seemed so disinterested in bringing him back, makes me feel like there was more to it. Then again, they didn't seem that eager to bring back Walker and his reputation is stellar so who knows?


i think walker just blew past what they expected $-wise. if they expected his market to be as robust as it became they probably QO him.

bassitt didnt do bad but if i remember right he got less than what most expected so in his case i think there was something they didnt like.
Seems  
DanMetroMan : 5/17/2023 5:37 pm : link
like they opted for Senga's "upside", though 3 for 63 was still a "steal" for Bassitt.
RE: Seems  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 5:49 pm : link
In comment 16118649 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
like they opted for Senga's "upside", though 3 for 63 was still a "steal" for Bassitt.


agree they ultimately first chose senga's upside, but they could have done both pretty easily. carrasco's 14m + quintana's 13m would have covered bassitt pretty easily even if they took some $ back in a carrasco trade. and they gave quintana 2 years.

senga + bassitt would have given them 1 upside guy, 1 reliable guy. i think they got a little penny wise thinking the 2 cheaper 34 year olds they chose had a chance to replicate bassitt at lower $, except we all saw carrasco was smoke and mirrors last year. i hope he comes back and proves me wrong but id have traded him at the first opportunity and then put the $ into a different SP (like bassitt).
hadn't seen this quote from buck but it's somewhat encouraging  
Eric on Li : 5/17/2023 6:43 pm : link
Quote:
“He’s going to play tonight and we’re going to see how it evolves,” Showalter said Wednesday. “We hope he makes a big contribution to a win tonight and gives us another good option to make making out a lineup hard.”


tomorrow they get taj bradley then 3 more righties in a row in cleveland. then smyly, stroman, taillon. then 3 in colorado.

not a lot of lefties but only 1 cy level guy (bieber). they have to let the guy play at least 50% of the time. im sure they will get vogelsnack starts vs righties but vientos has also been crushing righties this year. just off righties he has 5x as many homers as vogey.
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