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NFT: Mets talk + FBB 5/30

allstarjim : 5/30/2023 11:54 am
Slow day thus far, so wanted to start a new thread to discuss Mets this week and a little FBB to go with.

Senga tonight back home vs Phils. LHP Ranger Suarez going for the Phils.

Has to be a Vientos night, of course, and the fact that he's already taken Suarez deep in AAA will make this interesting to watch both how Suarez approaches Vientos and how the latter performs.

He hasn't gotten much going, and I have to believe the lack of regular ABs is hurting his effectiveness in the box.

Hoping for a big night from the Kids.

FBB notes, I proposed a trade to the Senga owner...I send Eury Perez and Gunnar Henderson. I have been holding Henderson waiting for the breakout, which I think will happen eventually. Perez has been terrific, but concerned about innings limit. He has 45 IP or so total this year with minors and MLB included, and has only pitched a max of 78 innings in his young career in any single season. Have to think they'll cap him around 100-120 IP.

Thinking about trying this deal for the Tanner Bibee owner, but that has more risk as he has likely his own innings cap to deal with. Bibee has pitched a max of 132 IP, and has pitched 50 innings this year. I need to stack wins, my pitching stats are killing me. I've been trading and working the wire, and here's my staff (not counting relief pitchers):

Gonsolin, Logan Webb, Logan Allen (also a max of 132 IP in his career), J.P. France, Musgrove (need him to get going), Bailey Ober, Bobby Miller, Eury Perez, Hunter Greene, Drew Smyly, and Jordan Montgomery. I lost Springs and Wright to injury, which was a huge blow, particularly Springs.

I previously dropped Kyle Gibson and wish I could add him back, but not sure who I'd drop. The problem with Gibson is his low Ks and lack of dominant upside in terms of ERA and WHIP, but he could get me 15-18 wins this year.

Would love to do a two-for-one with a young pitcher, preferably Perez, for a better starter with a longer innings cap and high K-rate. I've tried to package Greene and a hitter for starter (particularly Alcantara after his slow start for a buy-low opportunity) but didn't get a response in either of my trade proposals. Maybe I upgrade my offer to Logan Allen and Henderson? We keep 3 players, so if the Henderson breakout happens, he has value as a keeper. Allen was terrific yesterday, between him, France, and Miller I racked up 22 Ks and 2 wins, nice little start to the week.

I hope you guys grabbed Royce Lewis. Pretty awesome start to his big league season yesterday. I also have McLain, who is probably due for some regression, but he has a 93% speed rating, and his xBA of .284 will still play in my 2B spot if he can get me the steals.

My big stash right now is Elly De La Cruz. I think he's in the minors for 1 to 2 more weeks, max.

My Mets homerism is reflected in my lineup. Shortly after Alvarez's call up, I traded David Robertson for him. That has hurt me in the saves category, but still feel like that's a big win. We play 2 catchers, and between him and Rutschman I feel like have the best catching tandem in our league. I also have Baty in my 3B spot, and stashing Vientos, hoping Buck eventually relents and plays him as the everyday DH.

My hitters:

C: Alvarez/Rutschman
1B: Alonso/Lowe
2B: McLain (SS eligible)/Paredes (1B/3B eligibility)/Miguel Vargas (1B eligibility)/Chisholm Jr (IR spot and has OF eligibility)
3B: Baty, Henderson, Elly De La Cruz (minors, 3B eligibility)
SS: Royce Lewis
OF: Acuna/Tatis (SS eligible)/Betts (2B eligible)/Siri/Ozuna/Bellinger (IR spot)
UT: Vientos

I'm in 2nd to last place, my team has been pretty dominant in the offensive categories, and getting whipped in the pitching categories. Started off horribly by playing Henderson for the first few periods and with the Tatis suspension, slow start for Betts, and Christian Vazquez as my other C, and while James Outman was terrific for me in April, just killed me in May, leading to a drop for Jose Siri. But overall I'm first or second in the league in homers, Runs, and steals, batting average is 4th, but just tied for 6th in RBI. RBI is trending northward with Alvarez's ascension and since I added Paredes (nice surprise, 18 RBI in May).

I still believe I have a shot at playoffs, but I have to crush it over the next 12-13 weeks, and unlikely to do so without major improvements in the pitching department.

I know, TL;DR - but it's at least helpful to me to write it all out to mentally collate a strategy to go forward.

Go get Elly De La Cruz if he's still available though.

Back to Mets, let's hope Alvarez stays hot, and Baty gets hot. I'm really bullish on Baty. And first look for these Phils hitters against the ghost fork. LGM.



Tonight  
allstarjim : 5/30/2023 12:00 pm : link
Probably will see Escobar starting at 2B. .600 avg vs Suarez in 5 ABs, a homer and 4 RBI.

Canha 1-3 vs Suarez, Alonso surprisingly 0-7 with an RBI vs him (but he'll get him tonight).
Should I just drop Vientos  
allstarjim : 5/30/2023 12:17 pm : link
for now for Ben Lively?
Good stuff jim  
Vanzetti : 5/30/2023 3:22 pm : link
Thanks for starting the thread.

I'm not a fantasy guy but Musgrove would seem like a good bet
Baty  
GF1080 : 5/30/2023 3:41 pm : link
not starting tonight.
not terribly surprising  
allstarjim : 5/30/2023 3:55 pm : link
re: Baty, with a lefty on the mound that Escobar has hit very well against (3-5, homerun, 4 RBI).

Obviously, could've sat McNeil in favor of Baty at 3rd, but that would be two games in a row on the bench for McNeil, and I think it's fine to show deference to Jeff, who has hit righties and lefties equally well. Jeff loves hitting against the Phillies, .331 career average against, .339 against them last season.
1-0 good guys on a lindor homer  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 8:19 pm : link
a lot of hard contact on suarez from the mets (team xba .334):

vientos 111.5mph single
nimmo 108.5mph ground out
marte 106.5 flyball
lindor 104.6 homer

senga up to 10 swings/misses.
senga up to 18 swings and misses through 7  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 8:45 pm : link
dont think a met pitcher has hit 20 this year but could be wrong.
up to 22 whiffs and still throwing 98 through 7  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 8:49 pm : link
huge effort from senga putting away schwarber there. wonder if buck lets him take a crack at JTR or Bohm before going to the bp.
Senga just on fire.  
larryflower37 : 5/30/2023 8:50 pm : link
Fucking bullpen scares me in the 8th and 9th
RE: up to 22 whiffs and still throwing 98 through 7  
Mike in NY : 5/30/2023 8:54 pm : link
In comment 16125450 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
huge effort from senga putting away schwarber there. wonder if buck lets him take a crack at JTR or Bohm before going to the bp.


As bad as bullpen has been of late, that is awfully risky
RE: RE: up to 22 whiffs and still throwing 98 through 7  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 9:02 pm : link
In comment 16125456 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16125450 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


huge effort from senga putting away schwarber there. wonder if buck lets him take a crack at JTR or Bohm before going to the bp.



As bad as bullpen has been of late, that is awfully risky


if he feels ok i think id let him get a shot at jtr and only keep him in for bohm if he gets him quickly.

the insurance run from escobar is big bc he can go right at jtr.
when did castellanos turn into such a good rf?  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 9:04 pm : link
he saved an xbh from vientos earlier and that catch was an .810 xba, so it gets caught less than 1 in 5. 111 mph off nimmo's bat to the gap.
otto coming in  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 9:05 pm : link
Anthony DiComo @AnthonyDiComo
The final line on Kodai Senga:

7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K, 100 pitches.

The only blemish to his line was a bloop single in the third inning.

Senga has a 0.47 ERA in his last three home starts.
4 pitch walk from otto but alvarez erased it with an insane throw  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 9:08 pm : link
and a great tag from mcneil. huge out.

i imagine jdg is one of the guys at 2x?  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 9:13 pm : link
Mark Simon
@MarkASimonSays
A Mets starting pitcher has posted at least 7 IP and 1 H or fewer 55 times

Tom Seaver's done it the most (5x)

David Cone, R.A. Dickey, Matt Harvey 3x

Kodai Senga joins many who did it once, including

Ron Darling
Tug McGraw
Shawn Estes
Octavio Dotel
Jorge Sosa
thank god they keep getting vogelbakkkkkk at bats  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 9:23 pm : link
if you are giving him a few starts a week there's no reason he needs to pinch hit late for vientos every night.
There is little value  
spike : 5/30/2023 9:23 pm : link
in keeping Volgie even on the bench
good thing Buck  
allstarjim : 5/30/2023 9:25 pm : link
brought in Vogelbach to pinch hit for Vientos, who had the hardest hit ball of the night (I think). I mean, obviously we couldn't let Vientos hit against a RH'er. You know, with two outs and a runner on 2nd late, why not bring in a singles/walk machine rather than the guy who has immense power?
RE: There is little value  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 9:27 pm : link
In comment 16125469 spike said:
Quote:
in keeping Volgie even on the bench


the positive i see is if you are down 1 or down 2 against a wild righty, he can draw the walk and you can pinch run for him. that is obviously a very niche role.
PIITB!  
spike : 5/30/2023 9:35 pm : link
!
RE: i imagine jdg is one of the guys at 2x?  
Pete in MD : 5/30/2023 9:46 pm : link
In comment 16125466 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
Mark Simon
@MarkASimonSays
A Mets starting pitcher has posted at least 7 IP and 1 H or fewer 55 times

Tom Seaver's done it the most (5x)

David Cone, R.A. Dickey, Matt Harvey 3x

Kodai Senga joins many who did it once, including

Ron Darling
Tug McGraw
Shawn Estes
Octavio Dotel
Jorge Sosa

Bobby Jones in the 2000 NLDS.
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