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What's the Ceiling for the 2023 Offense?

mittenedman : 5/30/2023 5:57 pm
Assuming an offense built around Jones/Barkley/Waller going in opposite directions. From there, you sprinkle in the speed WRs for kill shots. Bellinger the "back breaker".

Of course - it all depends on the OL. Ceiling? Best book-ends in the league. Stud C. If they've hit on these picks, this OL should turn the corner this year. A catalyst to winning.

I'm not buying the "punt mentality" some seem to have for this season. Coaching-wise, a great situation that should be capitalized on right now with Daboll/Kafka. Probably as good an offensive staff as it gets in the NFL.

Looking back at the last decade + of offenses, you knew even if everything went right, they wouldn't be very good. Just didn't have the combination of personnel & coaching. For the Giants, I think this year's offense has the highest ceiling since 2011. All the sudden, there is talent here, and a dangerous coaching staff to unleash it.
Just not sure what to expect...  
Johnny5 : 5/30/2023 6:26 pm : link
Really just not sure what to expect anymore. We clearly have more firepower but I still am not confident about our blocking vs teams like Philly and Dallas. We will definitely have some growing pains with a rookie center I would think. But in general I do agree with your premise. I'm not punting this year, I'm expecting a better and more confident team all the way around. And I'm excited to see Waller and Hyatt in this offense.
lets see how  
fish3321 : 5/30/2023 6:42 pm : link
Neal and JMS play. Can this Oline improve?

Let's see if Waller and Campbell are healthy for 16 games.



RE: lets see how  
Angel Eyes : 5/30/2023 6:45 pm : link
In comment 16125387 fish3321 said:
Quote:
Neal and JMS play. Can this Oline improve?

Let's see if Waller and Campbell are healthy for 16 games.



17 games.
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 5/30/2023 6:49 pm : link
'89 49ers or '99 Rams.
The first game with the cowturds will tell us lot about this team.  
Jack Stroud : 5/30/2023 6:53 pm : link
While it will not define the whole season it will let us know if the Giants have taken a big step forward.
The  
Spider43 : 5/30/2023 7:21 pm : link
Roof?


Was  
Toth029 : 5/30/2023 7:24 pm : link
One of the worst in 2021 and was 15th in scoring in 2022 with little to work with.

I say this. If Jones, Waller, and others stay healthy? And Neal is at the very least decent? Fighter's chance to be top ten.
Going out on a limb...  
Wildcardgiants : 5/30/2023 8:19 pm : link
I say Jones throws for 4200 yards, 35 TDs and we are top 5 in rushing. Overall, a top 8-10 offense.
Where's Matt in Syracuse when you need him?  
DieHard : 5/30/2023 8:27 pm : link
I want a prediction that includes Daniel Jones passing for 5000 yards and 50 TDs, and Eric Gray becoming the next James Brown.

Seriously, though, I think it'll be better than 2022, but we won't be as "wide open" as some would like, due to time needed to tinker with the O-line and receivers. I expect an uptick in turnovers but also an increase in big plays. If we can score close to 400 points this year vs a tougher schedule, I consider that to be progress.
Potentially, top 10 offense and top 5 defense  
George from PA : 5/30/2023 8:34 pm : link
Health, Neal and little Wink and Dabol magic.
the unlikely ceiling is buffalo 2020  
Eric on Li : 5/30/2023 8:43 pm : link
in 2019 the bills averaged 19.6 ppg (23rd in nfl).
in 2020 they bumped up to 31.3 ppg (2nd in nfl) after adding 15 touchdowns from gabe davis (r) and diggs.

josh allen went from 29 total tds to 45 and was +17 on passing tds (which makes it easy to pick out davis and diggs impact, along with his progression - they basically passed for 1 more td every game).

last year the nyg scored 21.5 ppg (15th).
in the 8 games after the bye through week 17 they averaged 23.3 ppg.

waller's best year was 9tds so if he stays healthy,
and someone (or ideally more than 1) from campbell/hodgins/slayton/hyatt steps up,
and jones takes another step forward,

all those things together may not be likely but if we are talking absolute best case dont think that's a crazy ceiling.

dallas was at 27.5ppg last year even with rush making 5 starts (and 28 total passing tds) so that's probably a better reach goal than thinking the nyg will score the way they did against minnesota every week.
Can't picture Eric Grey singing "I got you"  
WillieYoung : 5/30/2023 8:47 pm : link
The next James Brown????
I think it's going to take a pretty big step forward  
Dr. D : 5/30/2023 9:10 pm : link
everyone knows we need the OL to continue to improve from what it was, but 1 thing I don't see mentioned much is the effect better weapons have on the OL.

I've posted before the impact Plaxico had on our offense, far beyond his stats, just with his presence and the attention he drew from opposing defenses. The Giants OL AND RBs looked significantly better when Plaxico was playing in '08.

We finally have guys like Waller and eventually Hyatt, et al., who are going to demand a lot of attention and make the jobs of the OL and DJ easier. Add to that Neal in his 2nd yr, a mature rookie C who could possibly become our best C in yrs as well as much better depth at WR and I'm pretty optimistic.
RE: I think it's going to take a pretty big step forward  
EJNNJ : 5/30/2023 10:38 pm : link
In comment 16125465 Dr. D said:
Quote:
everyone knows we need the OL to continue to improve from what it was, but 1 thing I don't see mentioned much is the effect better weapons have on the OL.

I've posted before the impact Plaxico had on our offense, far beyond his stats, just with his presence and the attention he drew from opposing defenses. The Giants OL AND RBs looked significantly better when Plaxico was playing in '08.

We finally have guys like Waller and eventually Hyatt, et al., who are going to demand a lot of attention and make the jobs of the OL and DJ easier. Add to that Neal in his 2nd yr, a mature rookie C who could possibly become our best C in yrs as well as much better depth at WR and I'm pretty optimistic.



Great point, for those who haven't gone back an watched Plax highlights the commonality between what Plax and Waller bring is their ability to draw and even beat double coverage. Not only will Waller produce but he's going to open things up for others drawing the extra safety and leaving room underneath. Imagine Waller and Slayton or Hyatt both on deep routes leaving underneath wide open for Campbell/Robinson/SB/Bellinger
This offense can be one of the best in football  
Ralph.C : 5/31/2023 4:07 am : link
Tons of speed at WR. Dangerous TE’s (and that includes Bellinger) A dynamic running back. A QB who delivers the ball accurately, works hard, is smart and is a running threat. An offensive line that features top draft choices that should block well enough to make passing and running plays work.

We are contenders for it all.
RE: RE: I think it's going to take a pretty big step forward  
Dr. D : 5/31/2023 10:08 am : link
In comment 16125506 EJNNJ said:
Quote:

Great point, for those who haven't gone back an watched Plax highlights the commonality between what Plax and Waller bring is their ability to draw and even beat double coverage. Not only will Waller produce but he's going to open things up for others drawing the extra safety and leaving room underneath. Imagine Waller and Slayton or Hyatt both on deep routes leaving underneath wide open for Campbell/Robinson/SB/Bellinger

Some people don't seem to believe or want to believe the synergistic effects of talent at different positions.

I bring up Plax because the difference in the '08 teams' offensive performance with and without him is so clear. With the EXACT SAME OL, QB, RBs and WRs not named Plax, the offensive production in pts/gm was cut about in half after he was gone (compared to what it was scoring with him). And it wasn't just 1 or 2 games.

We were much easier to defend when Plax wasn't on the field. The OL didn't look as good. The QB and running game wasn't as good, etc. (in other words, Plax's presence on the field helped not just the passing attack, but the overall offense, including the OL and QB performance and running game).

Also, where would the '11 team have been with the exact same OL, but without Nicks and/or Cruz? Not in the playoffs, that's where. Nevermind SB winner.

We also see it with the DJ hardcore skeptics club (DJHSC). As if WR/TE talent and OL (not to mention coaching/play calling) are irrelevant to his performance. Spock would say it's not logical (if he was alive and followed football).
...  
christian : 5/31/2023 11:10 am : link
In comment 16125624 Dr. D said:
Quote:
In comment 16125506 EJNNJ said:


Quote:



Great point, for those who haven't gone back an watched Plax highlights the commonality between what Plax and Waller bring is their ability to draw and even beat double coverage. Not only will Waller produce but he's going to open things up for others drawing the extra safety and leaving room underneath. Imagine Waller and Slayton or Hyatt both on deep routes leaving underneath wide open for Campbell/Robinson/SB/Bellinger


Some people don't seem to believe or want to believe the synergistic effects of talent at different positions.

I bring up Plax because the difference in the '08 teams' offensive performance with and without him is so clear. With the EXACT SAME OL, QB, RBs and WRs not named Plax, the offensive production in pts/gm was cut about in half after he was gone (compared to what it was scoring with him). And it wasn't just 1 or 2 games.


That doesn't seem right. When you looked at this did you subtract the 44 points they scored during the week 5 suspension or the 37 points they scored in week 12 when he played one series to bank his game bonus and then sat?
It's up to the OL and the QB  
Heisenberg : 5/31/2023 11:12 am : link
The team has more talent at the skill positions this year by a big margin. Last year they were limited with what they could do because the WRs who were healthy were not very good. This year, they added a lot of talent and depth.

The OL should also be better but the games aren't played on paper. Will our rookie C struggle? Will Neal play to at least an average level in year two? Who's the LG?

The last piece is the QB. I thought Jones played really well down the stretch last year but also was not asked to do much because of the shit he had to throw to and the spotty OL play. This year, they cant play that way. They have to attack teams in the passing game.
the math says...  
Brown_Hornet : 5/31/2023 11:13 am : link
...#1 in the league.
One big issue they had  
Lines of Scrimmage : 5/31/2023 11:33 am : link
was running the ball against the better fronts. Seattle, Detroit, Balt. and most of the division games. The rypc is below the season average compared to the wins.

Now the OL needs to take a big step but having a upper tier threat (Waller/Doc's point above) can help when this happen and prevent it from happening as often as last season.

Reasonable numbers for the season.

240-250 PY/G, 30/140 RY/G, 25-27 pts. Running game needs more production from the backs and improvement running between the tackles.

What can also help with the pt. total is the D creating more turnovers. They were near the bottom of the league.

Reading Plax; Eagles DC Jim Johnson said without Plax he could adjust his schemes accordingly.



passing offense needs to be more dynamic  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 5/31/2023 11:37 am : link
Top 5 in 20+ yard passing plays last year:
KC (73)
PHI (63)
MIA (62)
LVR (58)
DET (57)

Bottom 5:
NYG (28)
BAL (33)
ATL (37)
LAR (38)
CHI (38)

So many NFL games come down to about 3 big plays that went one way or the other. So when your team is very limited at making big plays, there is much less margin for error. The Giants as a team were able to overcome that last year with a good QB/RB rushing attack, smart possession football, and some luck. But there's a limit to that style.

While we've clearly upgraded the WR/TE talent and are hoping for a better OL led by growth from Neal, we are still lacking a proven go-to #1 WR. And we also don't know if Daniel Jones can adapt his game into less running and more traditional high-risk downfield passing.

The Giants finished 15th in points scored last year, which speaks to how prepared Daboll had us with our conservative running style. But in order for the Giants to push into a Top 10 offense, they'll need to open up the passing game and hit some big plays.
RE: passing offense needs to be more dynamic  
Eric on Li : 5/31/2023 11:43 am : link
In comment 16125685 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
Top 5 in 20+ yard passing plays last year:
KC (73)
PHI (63)
MIA (62)
LVR (58)
DET (57)

Bottom 5:
NYG (28)
BAL (33)
ATL (37)
LAR (38)
CHI (38)

So many NFL games come down to about 3 big plays that went one way or the other. So when your team is very limited at making big plays, there is much less margin for error. The Giants as a team were able to overcome that last year with a good QB/RB rushing attack, smart possession football, and some luck. But there's a limit to that style.

While we've clearly upgraded the WR/TE talent and are hoping for a better OL led by growth from Neal, we are still lacking a proven go-to #1 WR. And we also don't know if Daniel Jones can adapt his game into less running and more traditional high-risk downfield passing.

The Giants finished 15th in points scored last year, which speaks to how prepared Daboll had us with our conservative running style. But in order for the Giants to push into a Top 10 offense, they'll need to open up the passing game and hit some big plays.


this explains most of their offseason resource allocation. barkley and slayton (and jones) accounted for almost all their 20+ plays last year and they had to pay up to bring them all back. waller and campbell represent upgrades. hyatt had more big plays than anyone in cfb last year.

if we were looking at roster capabilities they tried to get better at it would be stopping the run on D and more explosive plays on offense.
RE: RE: lets see how  
jhibb : 5/31/2023 11:48 am : link
In comment 16125388 Angel Eyes said:
Quote:
In comment 16125387 fish3321 said:


Quote:


Neal and JMS play. Can this Oline improve?

Let's see if Waller and Campbell are healthy for 16 games.





17 games.


Well now, somebody's getting greedy.

;-)
darius slayton shouting out osi at otas today  
Eric on Li : 5/31/2023 12:28 pm : link
Quote:
Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Darius Slayton said coming out of last season they knew they needed more explosives. They’ve added a lot of speed, which has shown up in deeper passes this spring. “What's the point of having a bunch of Ferraris and keeping them in the garage? Take them out to the track."
RE: darius slayton shouting out osi at otas today  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 5/31/2023 12:48 pm : link
In comment 16125744 Eric on Li said:
Quote:


Quote:


Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Darius Slayton said coming out of last season they knew they needed more explosives. They’ve added a lot of speed, which has shown up in deeper passes this spring. “What's the point of having a bunch of Ferraris and keeping them in the garage? Take them out to the track."



That's what I like to hear. They definitely have more downfield receiving talent now.
RE: RE: darius slayton shouting out osi at otas today  
Eric on Li : 5/31/2023 12:59 pm : link
In comment 16125760 Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy said:
Quote:
In comment 16125744 Eric on Li said:


Quote:




Quote:


Dan Duggan
@DDuggan21
Darius Slayton said coming out of last season they knew they needed more explosives. They’ve added a lot of speed, which has shown up in deeper passes this spring. “What's the point of having a bunch of Ferraris and keeping them in the garage? Take them out to the track."





That's what I like to hear. They definitely have more downfield receiving talent now.


and even though TEs aren't really downfield players Waller should give the passing offense a player with gravity to open things up for others.

the offense improved a lot at the end of the year as they added enough weapons to put defenses in conflict between slayton/hodgins/barkley with james and the tes doing just enough too. the threat level is significantly higher now with campbell, waller, hyatt.
The cheap  
Pete in MD : 5/31/2023 1:05 pm : link
and short-sighted owners chose not to put a ceiling on the stadium. SMH
RE: ...  
Dr. D : 5/31/2023 1:38 pm : link
In comment 16125663 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16125624 Dr. D said:


Quote:


In comment 16125506 EJNNJ said:


Quote:



Great point, for those who haven't gone back an watched Plax highlights the commonality between what Plax and Waller bring is their ability to draw and even beat double coverage. Not only will Waller produce but he's going to open things up for others drawing the extra safety and leaving room underneath. Imagine Waller and Slayton or Hyatt both on deep routes leaving underneath wide open for Campbell/Robinson/SB/Bellinger


Some people don't seem to believe or want to believe the synergistic effects of talent at different positions.

I bring up Plax because the difference in the '08 teams' offensive performance with and without him is so clear. With the EXACT SAME OL, QB, RBs and WRs not named Plax, the offensive production in pts/gm was cut about in half after he was gone (compared to what it was scoring with him). And it wasn't just 1 or 2 games.



That doesn't seem right. When you looked at this did you subtract the 44 points they scored during the week 5 suspension or the 37 points they scored in week 12 when he played one series to bank his game bonus and then sat?

I admit I didn't remember the Sea game when Plax was suspended, but Sea was a really bad team (4-12) with one of the worst defenses in the league that year.

Seems to me, Sea and Ari didn't game plan to take advantage of the Plax absence (Sea prolly couldn't if they tried). That doesn't disprove my point, at all. Remove those 2 games from the equation, if it makes you happy. It doesn't really change anything.

We know that the eagles, dallas and others did take advantage of the absence of Plax. The eagles DC publicly stated it was a big deal; he said it made us much easier to defend.

With Plax:
Week 9, NYG scored 35 vs Dallas
Week 10, NYG scored 36 @ Phi, which had the 4th best defense in the NFL in pts against (avg 18 pts/game)
Week 11, NYG scored 30 vs. Balt, which had the 3rd best defense in the NFL in pts against (avg 15 pts/game)

Without Plax:
Week 14, NYG scored 14 vs Phi
Week 15, NYG scored 8 @ Dallas
Playoffs, NYG scored 11 vs Phi

Again, the OL, QB, RBs and WRs (not named Plax) were all the same. There was only one difference on offense.

Lastly:

The Giants were 9-1 with Plaxico.
The Giants were 3-4 without Plaxico (including playoffs).


Re. Plaxico  
Dr. D : 5/31/2023 2:11 pm : link
some might think I'm a big Plax fan or defender. I'm not. I'm still pissed about his stupidity.

My point is about the synergistic effect one dangerous weapon can have on the rest of the team, including the OL, QB and running game.

That Plax shituation is one example, with such a clear before and after picture.

I'm not saying one really good WR can make a crappy OL look great, but I think one weapon or combination of 2-3 can help make an avg OL be good enough.

I think Waller, Campbell and Hyatt (hopefully eventually Wan Dale) are going to really help the entire O. The OL, DJ and Barkley will all benefit from that upgrade.
...  
christian : 5/31/2023 2:52 pm : link
Taking into consideration the AZ game:

The Giants were 4-4 without Burress, including the no contest against Minnesota. They averaged 21 points per game.

With Burress, they were 8-1 and averaged 31 points.

Burress was simply not playing very well in 2008 and was also nursing a disruptive injury when he got suspended. The Giants were also facing a bunch of injuries on defense and playing the division teams the 2nd time around.

Hixon game-for-game was right their with Burress's production when he was out.

I think the end of that season was much more complex than Burress was out, so teams figured out the Giants.

Do I think Burress served as a legitimate decoy even when injured and drew attention, absolutely.
^^  
Dr. D : 5/31/2023 4:30 pm : link
so, we should all disregard what Jim Johnson, the eagles DC said about the Giants being easier to defend without Plax (supported by the drastic difference in scoring against them just 4 weeks apart as shown above).

I've said multiple times, it wasn't about Plax's personal stats (yet you bring up his stats) and I know we had injuries on D, but I'm talking about the O and the synergistic effect Plax had on the others on O (not his stats).

The Giants were really humming starting week 9 of that season and scored almost 34 pts a game over 3 straight weeks (not including the ARI game), including against the 3rd and 4th best defenses in pts against. Then (something happened and) they shit the bed and averaged 15 pts a game for the next 3, 18 pts a game the next 5 (I'm not counting the 6 pts they scored in OT vs. Car). I said "about half" and that's what I'm talking about.

You think what you want. I'll believe Jim Johnson (and my eyes).
...  
christian : 5/31/2023 5:26 pm : link
That's a strange conclusion to come draw from my comments. I agree with you Burress was an effective decoy and impacted how defenses approached the Giants.

You introduced some figures that were wrong, and I simply provided what I think is a more accurate assessment.

I think you're looking for a lot of ghosts that aren't there today amigo.
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