So I watched again in dismay as the Yankees lost in extra innings last night. Of course I wasn't surprised when they had runners on 1st and 3rd with no outs in the top of the 10th and couldn't score. Two of the next three hitters looking like little leaguers with no concept of situational hitting. Then Boone pinch hits for Higashioka (who's been hitting well) with a guy with the highest strikeout rate on the team (and now 8 of his last 12 at bats). But what is truly stunning, but not surprising, was Boone in the bottom of the inning. I can't for the life of me explain this "managing".
With the score 0-0 and the Mariners ghost runner on second, the obvious and overwhelming strategy is to walk the first hitter, setting up force outs and the possible double play. It was even worse last night when they didn't do this and opted to pitch to a lefty hitting .234 with a righthander on the mound. The next two batters where right-handed hitters hitting .230 and .161. They were followed by a switch hitter batting .151. Of course the lefty, Seattle's best possible matchup in this scenario, got a hit and Seattle won.
I've been watching baseball for almost 60 years and this has always been the most basic and logical strategy when the winning run is on second or third with one or no outs. For a team so reliant on analytics not to do this is ludicrous. But the Yankees and a lot of other teams never do this.
Even if the next three hitters are their three best and all left handed (heck, Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle) you HAVE to walk the first guy. There is no logical reason not to. It drastically improves the defense's odds of stopping the run from scoring.
I even go back to game 7 when the Yanks lost to Arizona. Bases were loaded, one out, Rivera pitching against Gonzalez, one of the D's best hitters. They had walked the bases loaded to get the force (and a chance for a double play), but then didn't play the best odds. The Yanks played the infield in instead of for the double play. Mo had a good strikeout rate and got lots of soft contact ground balls with the cutter. If they had played for the double play (sure, that would have gone against the "norm", but it was a much more probable outcome than a hard ground ball right at one of the drawn in infielders. And it would have been a great managing move) Jeter catches the bloop and there's two outs.
One, he's very good against lefty batters. His career splits over the last two seasons:
RHB: .157/.324/.259 .583 OPS
LHB: .164/.268/.269 .537 OPS
Two, and probably even more decisive, he has a very low batting average against, but puts a lot of guys on base for free, when he's not trying to. High walk rate and high HBP rate.
Over the last two seasons, RM has given up 39 base hits and put 47 guys on for free: 37 walks (zero intentional) and 10 HBP. He's hit four guys in just the last month.
Sure, you could tell him: walk this guy but don't walk or hit the next guy. Not that easy.
The batter got a base hit, the move looks bad, but there's more to analytics than righty/lefty and this decision had reasons.
Baseball needed to do the same. Either they could have capped games at 12 innings and accepted ties or do something like they've done to encourage scoring.
Baseball needed to do the same. Either they could have capped games at 12 innings and accepted ties or do something like they've done to encourage scoring.
No. What they should have done, if they wanted to implement a ghost runner, was not used it until the top of the 13th. Give these teams 3 extra frames to resolve the game the “old-fashioned” way. What percentage of baseball games make it to the 13th? Very few. And the ghost runner could have been in baseballs back pocket still to avoid 19 innings which is the ultimate goal here anyway.
One, he's very good against lefty batters. His career splits over the last two seasons:
RHB: .157/.324/.259 .583 OPS
LHB: .164/.268/.269 .537 OPS
Two, and probably even more decisive, he has a very low batting average against, but puts a lot of guys on base for free, when he's not trying to. High walk rate and high HBP rate.
Over the last two seasons, RM has given up 39 base hits and put 47 guys on for free: 37 walks (zero intentional) and 10 HBP. He's hit four guys in just the last month.
Sure, you could tell him: walk this guy but don't walk or hit the next guy. Not that easy.
The batter got a base hit, the move looks bad, but there's more to analytics than righty/lefty and this decision had reasons.
Those splits are basically the same. And even if he is better against lefties it does not outweigh the advantage of having the force and possibility of a double play. I don't care if the three best hitters in baseball are coming up. Your odds are greatly improved by making the double play available. With a DP all they need is a ground ball to the right side (easier for a lefty by the way) and a fly ball. With the DP in play you can be out of the inning in that scenario.
Another issue was that Marinaccio had to wait almost 10 minutes when a guy ran on the field and security SLOWLY walked him all the way across the outfield to get him off the field.
Those splits are basically the same. And even if he is better against lefties it does not outweigh the advantage of having the force and possibility of a double play. I don't care if the three best hitters in baseball are coming up. Your odds are greatly improved by making the double play available. With a DP all they need is a ground ball to the right side (easier for a lefty by the way) and a fly ball. With the DP in play you can be out of the inning in that scenario.
Another issue was that Marinaccio had to wait almost 10 minutes when a guy ran on the field and security SLOWLY walked him all the way across the outfield to get him off the field.
You didn't address the issue I pointed out as the most decisive: RM puts a lot of guys on base for free when he's not trying to. It's asking for trouble to ask a guy like that to issue an IBB, particularly with nobody out. And in two seasons, RM has never been asked to issue an IBB, in any situation.
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Those splits are basically the same. And even if he is better against lefties it does not outweigh the advantage of having the force and possibility of a double play. I don't care if the three best hitters in baseball are coming up. Your odds are greatly improved by making the double play available. With a DP all they need is a ground ball to the right side (easier for a lefty by the way) and a fly ball. With the DP in play you can be out of the inning in that scenario.
Another issue was that Marinaccio had to wait almost 10 minutes when a guy ran on the field and security SLOWLY walked him all the way across the outfield to get him off the field.
You didn't address the issue I pointed out as the most decisive: RM puts a lot of guys on base for free when he's not trying to. It's asking for trouble to ask a guy like that to issue an IBB, particularly with nobody out. And in two seasons, RM has never been asked to issue an IBB, in any situation.
He hasn't been asked to intentionally walk anyone? All he has to do is point to first base. He doesn't have to throw a pitch. So if no one was out and the runner was on third you wouldn't walk the bases loaded because he might walk the next guy?
He's walked 3 hitters in his last 11 appearances (11 innings). His K to W ratio is almost 3 to 1. He walks just under 1 every 2 innings. Both numbers are better than Peralta. His problem has been giving up hits.
I also just looked and Raleigh is hitting .316 leading off an inning.
And no matter the splits, the lefty has a much better chance to hit a ground ball to the right side to move the runner up than a righty. The odds of getting out of that inning are much better with the chance for a double play. Much better. Does it guarantee a win? No. But you increase your odds greatly by setting up the DP.
I also just looked and Raleigh is hitting .316 leading off an inning.
He's walked 3 hitters in his last 11 appearances (11 innings). His K to W ratio is almost 3 to 1. He walks just under 1 every 2 innings. Both numbers are better than Peralta. His problem has been giving up hits.
.....
And no matter the splits, the lefty has a much better chance to hit a ground ball to the right side to move the runner up than a righty. The odds of getting out of that inning are much better with the chance for a double play. Much better. Does it guarantee a win? No. But you increase your odds greatly by setting up the DP.
You left out the four HBP in those same 11 innings. Yup, four.
Also carved the 11 inning small sample to leave out the 5 walks in the previous 5 2/3.
Just under 1 walk every two innings is a lot. 39 base hits and 47 free runners are his career stats.
If he issues the IBB, he is statistically far more likely to put one of the next two batters on for free, and force the winning run to third with less than two outs, than he is to get a DP.
You remind me of some lawyers I know. That's sort of a compliment.
As for the bottom of the tenth, if walking the leadoff batter to set up the double play is such great strategy why isn't it down more often. You expect your bullpen to get an out there, even if the runner moves to third. Then maybe you walk the next guy to get an inning ending double play. You don't walk a bottom of the order batter to lead off the inning.
To me Cashman is the problem.
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Long extra inning games are destructive in baseball. Modern baseball is not set up for 16 or 17 inning games, followed by a game the next day. Its made even worse when a team thats just played a 16 inning game plays another team that didn't the next day. Both hockey and football limit regular season over time. FIFA soccer even limits tournament overtime.
Baseball needed to do the same. Either they could have capped games at 12 innings and accepted ties or do something like they've done to encourage scoring.
No. What they should have done, if they wanted to implement a ghost runner, was not used it until the top of the 13th. Give these teams 3 extra frames to resolve the game the “old-fashioned” way. What percentage of baseball games make it to the 13th? Very few. And the ghost runner could have been in baseballs back pocket still to avoid 19 innings which is the ultimate goal here anyway.
I absolutely agree. If they plan to keep the ghost runner rule, they seriuosly need to consider tweaking it to not activate it untill there is a 12th or 13th inning. Its terrible the way it is now