Barnwell Analysis of Last 10 HCs to Make Playoffs in 1stYear

is how if a HC does not win a SB within 5 years it is not looking good. I think Reid and Cowher are the only two in the last 40 plus years.

Hopefully this HC gets to at least a NFCCG by year 4 at a minimum. If not, I'd expect some significant changes.

To allow the coaches to make their gametime adjustments to win games!

Still shocked the Giants ranked last in point differentials in 1st quarter.

Not a ton new here, but he brings up a couple things we should be thinking about. The Giants did very well in once score games, and that usually does not carry over year to year. Also, they have a tougher schedule this year.

That said, the team is improved over last year. Daboll and Schoen worked their magic with a lot JAGs last year, especially on defense and hopefully there will a lot fewer of them getting significant time.

The team is on the right track. But I wouldn't be surprised if they take a small step back this year.

1. Close game wins
2. Roster (red flag 5)

Close game wins is a no brainer. Statiscally very imrpobable to repeat record in close games on a year to year basis.

The roster is big unknown. When they talk about DVOA or EPA of the defense and that history suggests that drastic improvements of the roster are required to improve this (not incremental); it's concerning. Basically we need Thibs to take a step up, Okereke to be a big plus and the secondary to step up. Wouldnt hurt if Banks has a great year.

That's a lof of 'ifs' on the defense.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Giants backslid a little in record but improved as a team with 2024 being the year to make the 'leap'.

I predict two things could happen in 2023:

1. We'll have a worse record in one-score games.
2. We'll have less one-score games overall (I can see us winning a few more games comfortably, likewise I can see us struggling to keep it close against top teams).

The one-score game stat is interesting, but it can be deceptive. Last year we were a missed Gano FG (vs the Bears), a meaningless Texan FG in the last 30 seconds, and Barkley sliding instead of waltzing into the end zone (vs the Ravens) away from subtracting three games from our total one-score game tally. Take those three games away and we're 5-4-1 in one-score games, which is probably right around the average.

Barnwell is an idiot. He is the guy who claimed that after Plaxico shot himself in the leg that the Giants passing game was actually better without him. He said this based on passing DVOA increasing which was true, but this was only because without Plaxico, defenses were able to load up in the box to stop our run game. So even though passing DVOA was slightly better, we could no longer sustain drives because of the impact on our running game and our offense was much worse.