Take that back, Badler apparently said on his podcast Pena will receive “most if not all” of the Mets 2025 IFA pool. Will crush the Mets previous bonus #
Draft would be greatly impacted losing a 2nd and 5th round pick as well. Thats significant draft pool spending, especially if they pick 17th and not 6th. Extremely high price to pay
Agreed Dan. You lose those picks for Ohtani and don't think twice about. Blake Snell? He's really good but probably not the path forward I see the Mets taking.
not saying this is snell, but if you think any pitcher available is wheeler 2019 that price is a nothing-burger comparatively if you're right.
if you could put wheeler on this team right now but you had to give up this year's brandon sproat (1.5m) and christopher larez (1.4m) they would do that in a heartbeat.
since 2020 wheeler has more fwar than any sp in baseball so that's an extreme outcome but nola is 4th on that list, burnes is 2nd (would be trade cost), montgomery 19th, snell 24th. shohei is 22nd even w/ injury.
of course you prefer the guys who dont cost the qo but that's not an infinite list.
Have verbal deals with 7 2025 players, none outside of Pena are “big names”. Pena is going to play in the NWL this winter against players twice his age. Cheslor Cuthbert for example played there last season. If he even gets playing time that would be impressive.
lol. The Pads are a team I admire. I actually hate to see them go through this. At least their owners want to win and are willing to spend to do it, unlike a whole buncha other teams' owners. We are blessed to have Uncle Steve own this club. How goes it with you Rory?
P.S. We should give Eric in LI a visit out in Padreland! Beautiful part of the country. Nothing like sunshine and warm weather. The Northeast is cold and ooglay A.F. today.
all good here, actually just left PNW and moved back to NY for the holidays. Sorry Speedy, we never got a game in
Padres are a weird team, kinda a west coast version of 2015 Yankees. Lots of millionaires but Instead of AROD you have Machado who never really takes hold of a leadership role. An no real impact homegrown talent coming up.
For me with Mets I dont know Counsel at all, NY is a rough place to manage. Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes us interesting and I stick by my 1 year low risk/high reward signing with Tyler Mahle.
Rumor that Trout could got o Philly next season.
Also, that was a kick ass world series and some great playoff baseball. Really enjoyed it.
Take that back, Badler apparently said on his podcast Pena will receive “most if not all” of the Mets 2025 IFA pool. Will crush the Mets previous bonus #
if that's the case then it seems like they have already smartly strategized a way that if they use the QO this year, it impacts them as minimally as possible since their class is going to be so invested in 1 player to start with.
again it's not plan A, im sure yamamoto and montgomery are, but those guys are going to have a dozen bidders each sort of like gausman a few years ago (who is now the 3rd most valuable SP since 2020 behind burnes/wheeler).
if they want a non-ancient top of the rotation SP, they may need to lose QO comp. i hope they get yamamoto or montgomery or both but that's going to extremely competitive.
Due respect Eric but using Sproat, a senior yet to throw a pro pitch and Larez a 17 year old who was getting good buzz and then suspended are completely unfair examples. Today they are nobodies as of right now. “Everybody” is making that swap. Are they doing the same if the 2 names end up Christian Scott and Mauricio? Probably less likely.
the Mets fall from 6 to 17, their pool already drops from about 6 to 4 for the first round, then minus 2 million for a 2nd round pick and 450K more for a 5th round pick. So their draft pool (if they pick 17th). It's a draft pool crusher.
Due respect Eric but using Sproat, a senior yet to throw a pro pitch and Larez a 17 year old who was getting good buzz and then suspended are completely unfair examples. Today they are nobodies as of right now. “Everybody” is making that swap. Are they doing the same if the 2 names end up Christian Scott and Mauricio? Probably less likely.
right now whoever they sign this year is a lot closer to larez or sproat because that's where they are going to be in their stage of development. sproat could be the next wheeler and larez the next mauricio but we have no idea - any IFA (teenager) carries extreme risk and the point would stand even if it were davierson who got almost 2m which would be twice the penalty.
and as ive explained before, it's not like they lose 1m and they lose their favorite IFA;s. they will lose the 1m from their budget they care the least about. it could be that they just loose 20 guys who were all going to get 50k bonuses whose names we havent even heard in the first place.
last year the mets signed 28 IFAs and only those top 3 got 1m+. i cant find the BA link but i think fewer than 5 others got more than 100k so there was a big chunk of guys they signed to smaller deals but added up to about 1m.
the Mets fall from 6 to 17, their pool already drops from about 6 to 4 for the first round, then minus 2 million for a 2nd round pick and 450K more for a 5th round pick. So their draft pool (if they pick 17th). It's a draft pool crusher.
What are the final odds of the Mets picking 6th or better vs 17th or worse? Is it like 57/43 that the Mets drop down to 17?
It looks like the lottery is in December. I wonder if any of the Mets offseason decisions are going to hinge on how that lottery goes.
The VWL has begun: Lorenzo Cedrola .278/.316/.278 over 18 ab's, Ex-@mets Wilfredo Tovar .279/.296/.442 over 43 ab's, José Peraza (the MLB one) .179/.179/.214 over 28 ab's, José Peraza (prospect) .100/.250/.300 over 20 ab's #Mets
the Mets fall from 6 to 17, their pool already drops from about 6 to 4 for the first round, then minus 2 million for a 2nd round pick and 450K more for a 5th round pick. So their draft pool (if they pick 17th). It's a draft pool crusher.
What are the final odds of the Mets picking 6th or better vs 17th or worse? Is it like 57/43 that the Mets drop down to 17?
It looks like the lottery is in December. I wonder if any of the Mets offseason decisions are going to hinge on how that lottery goes.
They have a 5.5% chance of picking 1st, 6.0 2nd, 6.5% 3rd, 7.2% 4th, 8% 5th, 9% 6th and a 26.6% chance of picking 8th (which in their case would be 18th).
where they slot shouldnt impact their decisions - it is what it is
the right way to look at the penalty is through the lens of how much it impairs their ability to go above slot for players they want.
last year their overslot signings were:
houck +150k
ewing +190k
barro +500k
then a few other guys after round 10 who were +100-200k.
sproat was signed for slot in round 2 at 1.475 which makes him a very simple base case of what they would be giving up by signing someone on a QO.
whatever they do now they obviously wont know who is on the board in 2024 when they pick and what the best strategy will be. but they can lose 1.5m and still have the capability of going overslot for whoever their first pick is.
with less $ spend in both IFA/draft the biggest impact is that those classes will likely be defined by whether or not they get their headliners right. which is why it seems notable their IFA class is more invested in 1 headliner than ever before.
2nd round is about 2 million by itself, 5th round another 400K
Drop from 6 to 17 would be an additional 2.5 million in draft pool money
That's about 2.4 million for signing a QO FA (+ 1 million in draft money) and about 5 million in pool money lost if they don't finish top 6 in the lottery (for context the Mets had 8.4 million to spend TOTAL last season and that was with extra picks).
7th overall pick in 2nd round of the 2023 draft had a pool number of Rockies: $1,868,400, the 7th pick in the 5th round had a pool number of Rangers: $437,900
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
Sorry if this has already been covered, but I thought if we didn't finish with one of the 6 worst records, we drop 10 spots. It's actually based on the lottery?
Sorry if this has already been covered, but I thought if we didn't finish with one of the 6 worst records, we drop 10 spots. It's actually based on the lottery?
Correct. It's based on the lottery. Top 6 draft slot, not top 6 records.
Sorry if this has already been covered, but I thought if we didn't finish with one of the 6 worst records, we drop 10 spots. It's actually based on the lottery?
Correct. It's based on the lottery. Top 6 draft slot, not top 6 records.
Dan, you need to check into baseball rehab. You’re a junky.
2nd round is about 2 million by itself, 5th round another 400K
Drop from 6 to 17 would be an additional 2.5 million in draft pool money
That's about 2.4 million for signing a QO FA (+ 1 million in draft money) and about 5 million in pool money lost if they don't finish top 6 in the lottery (for context the Mets had 8.4 million to spend TOTAL last season and that was with extra picks).
losing the pool money from not finishing top 6 is something they cant control. if they get lucky that is found money in the couch cushions. they spent over the CBT knowing they would get dropped 10 spots in the draft so by all rights that's what they planned on and deserve. if they luck into that not being the case it's a phenomenal outcome but if they dont they didnt "lose" anything. they got plenty of prospect ROI from all the money they spent when they added all the prospects they added at the deadline.
what they control is the decision to sign a QO free agent or not.
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• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.
the penalty is exactly as written - a second round pick at slot value - which is exactly what sproat was last year. and sure a 5th round pick also but we all know the odds of all draft picks so thats a total nothingburger imo. last year's 5th was zach thornton (he basically got slot).
and 1m of IFA money - which they spent on 3 individual IFAs last year so get rid of whichever one you liked least and that's the closest approximation of what the penalty is.
in total it is a $3m prospect penalty - and as ive said they get to strategize around the penalty to minimize it's impact. which im sure they've been doing in the IFA side knowing they seemed likely to go after ohtani going back 2 years.
$3m of prospect value is 1 40+ grad prospect according to FG. which tracks with the penalty ive been approximating bc they have sproat as a 40+ grade right now (larez is a 40 grade, but im not even sure they wouldn't have been able to sign him with the penalty last year, they probably blow off a bunch of lower level signings instead of him).
this season has gotten worse because I'm COMPLETELY checked out on the Giants. My GF asked if I wanted to watch the game Sunday and I said "I'm not in the mood". I literally had nothing else I needed to do, I just wasn't "in the mood". I flipped on the game eventually but my sports interest right at this moment are the Mets, my mediocre fantasy team and now the Knicks who I will enjoy but no real title aspirations. I really didn't expect the Giants to be awful.
7th overall pick in 2nd round of the 2023 draft had a pool number of Rockies: $1,868,400, the 7th pick in the 5th round had a pool number of Rangers: $437,900
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
1.5m was what sproat got last year (which was exactly slot). this years 2nd will be higher so the slot value will be slightly higher but sproat was generally ranked ahead of where they picked him so i think he's a good proxy to the type of talent they would be giving up.
this season has gotten worse because I'm COMPLETELY checked out on the Giants. My GF asked if I wanted to watch the game Sunday and I said "I'm not in the mood". I literally had nothing else I needed to do, I just wasn't "in the mood". I flipped on the game eventually but my sports interest right at this moment are the Mets, my mediocre fantasy team and now the Knicks who I will enjoy but no real title aspirations. I really didn't expect the Giants to be awful.
Wow, Danngets sports headaches. you weren’t in the mood?? I hear ya though, bud.
I’ve occasionally mentioned it in the last. I used to say a baseball junkie needs to experience spring training, buts that’s changed over the years. But for a an uber fan like you, I can suggest enough catching some backfield minor,league games if you ever head down there.
But even better, catch an FCL game. For a guy like you, you’d be a kid in a candy store!!!!
can't just subtract the 5th round pick and suggest it's "nothing" because it's both the player and the pool money. Just because the Mets used their money in 2023 where their 5th rounder got slot doesn't mean anything. The money used to sign ANY of the their over slot signings has to come from somewhere. Ewing/Troesser were picked 1 pick apart, Ewing got 200K over slot, Troesser 120K under. The Mets in 2023 had extra picks, which allowed them to sign over slot players, in years where you don't have extra picks signing over slot players becomes harder, and more so when you're subtracting draft pool money.
I have never seen a 14 year old with a slower trot than this kid.
He’s slow??
No, homerun trot
He jogged out a HR?
No, walked. All of them.
How many?
(Cracks up laughing) ALOT!!!!!!
7th overall pick in 2nd round of the 2023 draft had a pool number of Rockies: $1,868,400, the 7th pick in the 5th round had a pool number of Rangers: $437,900
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
1.5m was what sproat got last year (which was exactly slot). this years 2nd will be higher so the slot value will be slightly higher but sproat was generally ranked ahead of where they picked him so i think he's a good proxy to the type of talent they would be giving up.
+ 5th round pick and 5th round money, 8th pick in the 5th round was 433,500. So it's far, far closer to 2 million in lost money, 1.93,500 based on 2023's numbers and the pools go up, not down annually.
if there is a SP out there who you think is worth 5 years 100m+, which equates to probably 120 big league starts, you are projecting probably 15-20 fwar in the next 5 years. it is adding another SP expected to be on the level senga pitched this past year. snell, nola,
the odds of getting that amount of production from prospect $ that's roughly equal to sproat, larez, thornton is exponentially lower, and at least 5 years deferred in the future.
and keep in mind that just like sproat/larez, if there are players they like better than them in those classes they will still get them because the penalty is smaller than their highest value choice (first round pick, biggest IFA signing).
100% go for yamamoto/montgomery first but if they go elsewhere don't turn the phone off.
weird dynamic with the Wilpons being on board with this new soccer stadium and Cohen reportedly trying to block the usage of the parking lot (unless he gets his casino...)
7th overall pick in 2nd round of the 2023 draft had a pool number of Rockies: $1,868,400, the 7th pick in the 5th round had a pool number of Rangers: $437,900
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
1.5m was what sproat got last year (which was exactly slot). this years 2nd will be higher so the slot value will be slightly higher but sproat was generally ranked ahead of where they picked him so i think he's a good proxy to the type of talent they would be giving up.
+ 5th round pick and 5th round money, 8th pick in the 5th round was 433,500. So it's far, far closer to 2 million in lost money, 1.93,500 based on 2023's numbers and the pools go up, not down annually.
the pools go up along with the slot values (which i said) but the value of the prospect is still the same. they lose slot value of their 2nd and 5th highest pick - which their 2nd round and 5th round picks last year approximate closest. unlike last year they arent going to get comp picks for losing players via FA so the picks they are risking should be their 2nd rd pick and 5th rd picks at slot value.
The Mets are down to a few in-person manager interviews and are on track to make a hire within a week, league sources say.
After first-round telephone interviews, the Mets began their in-person interviews on Wednesday with Carlos Mendoza, and are continuing on Thursday with Craig Counsell. There are believed to be one or maybe two other finalists, if we want to use that vague word (the Mets would push back on it).
Oakland manager Mark Kotsay has been in the mix, sources say, but it is unclear to what extent. The New York Post also linked former San Diego skipper Andy Green to the job.
it seems like they've toed a balance between it being obviously counsell's job and not talking to anyone in any way threatening to counsell being a clear top target (publicly at least).
On paper (which means next to nothing in November) the top of this draft is not as intriguing as last year. Wetherholt seeing time at SS should help his draft stock quite a bit. I'm intrigued by Seaver King. Caglianone with the Ohtani comps seems ridiculous (and unfair)
The Mets are down to a few in-person manager interviews and are on track to make a hire within a week, league sources say.
After first-round telephone interviews, the Mets began their in-person interviews on Wednesday with Carlos Mendoza, and are continuing on Thursday with Craig Counsell. There are believed to be one or maybe two other finalists, if we want to use that vague word (the Mets would push back on it).
Oakland manager Mark Kotsay has been in the mix, sources say, but it is unclear to what extent. The New York Post also linked former San Diego skipper Andy Green to the job.
it seems like they've toed a balance between it being obviously counsell's job and not talking to anyone in any way threatening to counsell being a clear top target (publicly at least).
Also, the conspiracy theorist in me... it looks like a real search aka the league can't claim the Mets/Stearns tampered before they could.
he puts down a pretty heavy marker here despite the non-ideal walk year:
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He’s been on the injured list once in the past six seasons, missing a single start in July 2022 with an elbow strain, although he also missed a spring training start in 2020 with “the flu” a few days before the world ended; before that, his last injury of any sort was a UCL sprain in 2017 that was treated with a PRP injection. I think he’s a hidden ace, someone who’ll take off for whoever signs him — and shame on the Phillies if they don’t — even though he might end up more in the $25 million a year range than the $30 million-plus he’s likely to be worth.
i really have to say it would be so nice to do to philly what they did to us with wheeler - assuming law ends up right about nola.
Also, the conspiracy theorist in me... it looks like a real search aka the league can't claim the Mets/Stearns tampered before they could.
i think that would be a near impossible case to prove given that stearns and counsell were technically still part of the same org through sept 1. so there's only like a month in between and stearns wasnt even employed by the mets that entire time.
if there's a tampering case it would more likely be with stearns some time over the 2+ year pursuit than counsell in the brief period after stearns hire but before mil got eliminated. milwaukee has now twice given mets permission to talk to their guys a little early so it would seem that they aren't scorned but i suppose that could change.
The draft lottery is just for the 1st round, right?
he New York Mets will get a huge windfall this year from lower debt payments thanks to owner Steve Cohen’s 2021 refinancing of the bonds used to finance the construction of Citi Field.
The ballpark, which opened in 2009, was financed with 40-year and 37-year PILOT (payment in lieu of taxes) bonds at interest rates between 4.3% and 6.5%. Back then, the Mets were owned by the Wilpon and Katz families, who operated the New York City-owned ballpark (formerly known as Queens Ballpark LLC) through a lease agreement with the New York City Industrial Development Agency (NYCIDA) until 2049. Link - ( New Window )
projecting Lugo at roughly 3 for 39, and I'd do that. Unclear if he'd be willing to return. I think he's very similar to Quintana in value.
And I gave that number before Law's piece!
12:19 PM · Oct 31, 2023
"Daniel Wexler
@WexlerRules
It would. I think that’s very low. Got 15 before he proved he could start. I suspect he gets something like 3 for 39."
i think he's more likely to get 2 years than 3, but for mets i think a 3x30m makes a ton of sense to flatten out his lux tax hits and knowing he can shift to BP effectively. id be very happy with him as a 3rd SP who can compete for a rotation slot with peterson/megill/vasil and shift to BP if necessary.
i would imagine lugo doesnt care too much where he pitches other than how it impacts how much $ he gets since middle relievers dont get $30m.
if he's their 2nd SP signing that seems a little risky but he's a perfect 3rd SP/potential high leverage RP swing piece.
he New York Mets will get a huge windfall this year from lower debt payments thanks to owner Steve Cohen’s 2021 refinancing of the bonds used to finance the construction of Citi Field.
The ballpark, which opened in 2009, was financed with 40-year and 37-year PILOT (payment in lieu of taxes) bonds at interest rates between 4.3% and 6.5%. Back then, the Mets were owned by the Wilpon and Katz families, who operated the New York City-owned ballpark (formerly known as Queens Ballpark LLC) through a lease agreement with the New York City Industrial Development Agency (NYCIDA) until 2049. Link - ( New Window )
if memory serves this was done about 12 months before seidler and a bunch of others were screaming to "name 1 thing cohen has actually done better than the wilpons"?
really stood out. I'm not really buying it. He was really bad most of the year and needs his command to be near perfect to be effective. He's at an age where his velocity declines (and it isn't great to begin with) so there's not a lot of room for error there. Really risky guy to sign.
@mets
have released nearly 30 players. Cole Gordon, Kolby Kubichek, Manuel Guance, Nick Meyer, Elliot Johnstone, Pedro Mercedes, Ramon Henriquez, Luis Castillo, Fernando Villalobos, Christopher Vasquez, Yordis Perera, Eric Santana, Gregory Leal, Jonaiker Palacios, Sammy Tavarez, Luis A Rodriguez (the righty), Joe Joe Rodriguez, Luis Montas, Dylan Hall, Chase Estep, Carlos Dominguez. Cesar Berbesi, Dyron Campos, Matt Minnick
More releases to announce-
17th round 2022 Connor Brandon, UDFA Mathieu Voros, IFA Adrian Hernandez, 2021 7th rounder Kevin Kendall.
Quote:
Draft would be greatly impacted losing a 2nd and 5th round pick as well. Thats significant draft pool spending, especially if they pick 17th and not 6th. Extremely high price to pay
Agreed Dan. You lose those picks for Ohtani and don't think twice about. Blake Snell? He's really good but probably not the path forward I see the Mets taking.
not saying this is snell, but if you think any pitcher available is wheeler 2019 that price is a nothing-burger comparatively if you're right.
if you could put wheeler on this team right now but you had to give up this year's brandon sproat (1.5m) and christopher larez (1.4m) they would do that in a heartbeat.
since 2020 wheeler has more fwar than any sp in baseball so that's an extreme outcome but nola is 4th on that list, burnes is 2nd (would be trade cost), montgomery 19th, snell 24th. shohei is 22nd even w/ injury.
of course you prefer the guys who dont cost the qo but that's not an infinite list.
Quote:
lol!
lol. The Pads are a team I admire. I actually hate to see them go through this. At least their owners want to win and are willing to spend to do it, unlike a whole buncha other teams' owners. We are blessed to have Uncle Steve own this club. How goes it with you Rory?
P.S. We should give Eric in LI a visit out in Padreland! Beautiful part of the country. Nothing like sunshine and warm weather. The Northeast is cold and ooglay A.F. today.
all good here, actually just left PNW and moved back to NY for the holidays. Sorry Speedy, we never got a game in
Padres are a weird team, kinda a west coast version of 2015 Yankees. Lots of millionaires but Instead of AROD you have Machado who never really takes hold of a leadership role. An no real impact homegrown talent coming up.
For me with Mets I dont know Counsel at all, NY is a rough place to manage. Yoshinobu Yamamoto makes us interesting and I stick by my 1 year low risk/high reward signing with Tyler Mahle.
Rumor that Trout could got o Philly next season.
Also, that was a kick ass world series and some great playoff baseball. Really enjoyed it.
Hope all is good fam.
if that's the case then it seems like they have already smartly strategized a way that if they use the QO this year, it impacts them as minimally as possible since their class is going to be so invested in 1 player to start with.
again it's not plan A, im sure yamamoto and montgomery are, but those guys are going to have a dozen bidders each sort of like gausman a few years ago (who is now the 3rd most valuable SP since 2020 behind burnes/wheeler).
if they want a non-ancient top of the rotation SP, they may need to lose QO comp. i hope they get yamamoto or montgomery or both but that's going to extremely competitive.
Link - ( New Window )
right now whoever they sign this year is a lot closer to larez or sproat because that's where they are going to be in their stage of development. sproat could be the next wheeler and larez the next mauricio but we have no idea - any IFA (teenager) carries extreme risk and the point would stand even if it were davierson who got almost 2m which would be twice the penalty.
and as ive explained before, it's not like they lose 1m and they lose their favorite IFA;s. they will lose the 1m from their budget they care the least about. it could be that they just loose 20 guys who were all going to get 50k bonuses whose names we havent even heard in the first place.
last year the mets signed 28 IFAs and only those top 3 got 1m+. i cant find the BA link but i think fewer than 5 others got more than 100k so there was a big chunk of guys they signed to smaller deals but added up to about 1m.
What are the final odds of the Mets picking 6th or better vs 17th or worse? Is it like 57/43 that the Mets drop down to 17?
It looks like the lottery is in December. I wonder if any of the Mets offseason decisions are going to hinge on how that lottery goes.
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the Mets fall from 6 to 17, their pool already drops from about 6 to 4 for the first round, then minus 2 million for a 2nd round pick and 450K more for a 5th round pick. So their draft pool (if they pick 17th). It's a draft pool crusher.
What are the final odds of the Mets picking 6th or better vs 17th or worse? Is it like 57/43 that the Mets drop down to 17?
It looks like the lottery is in December. I wonder if any of the Mets offseason decisions are going to hinge on how that lottery goes.
They have a 5.5% chance of picking 1st, 6.0 2nd, 6.5% 3rd, 7.2% 4th, 8% 5th, 9% 6th and a 26.6% chance of picking 8th (which in their case would be 18th).
last year their overslot signings were:
houck +150k
ewing +190k
barro +500k
then a few other guys after round 10 who were +100-200k.
sproat was signed for slot in round 2 at 1.475 which makes him a very simple base case of what they would be giving up by signing someone on a QO.
whatever they do now they obviously wont know who is on the board in 2024 when they pick and what the best strategy will be. but they can lose 1.5m and still have the capability of going overslot for whoever their first pick is.
with less $ spend in both IFA/draft the biggest impact is that those classes will likely be defined by whether or not they get their headliners right. which is why it seems notable their IFA class is more invested in 1 headliner than ever before.
2nd round is about 2 million by itself, 5th round another 400K
Drop from 6 to 17 would be an additional 2.5 million in draft pool money
That's about 2.4 million for signing a QO FA (+ 1 million in draft money) and about 5 million in pool money lost if they don't finish top 6 in the lottery (for context the Mets had 8.4 million to spend TOTAL last season and that was with extra picks).
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
RHP Hector Rodriguez is now a dominant monster in Italy. 69.2 innings 127 k's (16.4 K/9, led the league)
Hector Rodriguez is now pitching in the VWL 5 perfect innings 5 k's. Maybe bring back Hector?
Link - ( New Window )
Correct. It's based on the lottery. Top 6 draft slot, not top 6 records.
Link - ( New Window )
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Sorry if this has already been covered, but I thought if we didn't finish with one of the 6 worst records, we drop 10 spots. It's actually based on the lottery?
Correct. It's based on the lottery. Top 6 draft slot, not top 6 records.
Dan, you need to check into baseball rehab. You’re a junky.
2nd round is about 2 million by itself, 5th round another 400K
Drop from 6 to 17 would be an additional 2.5 million in draft pool money
That's about 2.4 million for signing a QO FA (+ 1 million in draft money) and about 5 million in pool money lost if they don't finish top 6 in the lottery (for context the Mets had 8.4 million to spend TOTAL last season and that was with extra picks).
losing the pool money from not finishing top 6 is something they cant control. if they get lucky that is found money in the couch cushions. they spent over the CBT knowing they would get dropped 10 spots in the draft so by all rights that's what they planned on and deserve. if they luck into that not being the case it's a phenomenal outcome but if they dont they didnt "lose" anything. they got plenty of prospect ROI from all the money they spent when they added all the prospects they added at the deadline.
what they control is the decision to sign a QO free agent or not.
the penalty is exactly as written - a second round pick at slot value - which is exactly what sproat was last year. and sure a 5th round pick also but we all know the odds of all draft picks so thats a total nothingburger imo. last year's 5th was zach thornton (he basically got slot).
and 1m of IFA money - which they spent on 3 individual IFAs last year so get rid of whichever one you liked least and that's the closest approximation of what the penalty is.
in total it is a $3m prospect penalty - and as ive said they get to strategize around the penalty to minimize it's impact. which im sure they've been doing in the IFA side knowing they seemed likely to go after ohtani going back 2 years.
$3m of prospect value is 1 40+ grad prospect according to FG. which tracks with the penalty ive been approximating bc they have sproat as a 40+ grade right now (larez is a 40 grade, but im not even sure they wouldn't have been able to sign him with the penalty last year, they probably blow off a bunch of lower level signings instead of him).
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
1.5m was what sproat got last year (which was exactly slot). this years 2nd will be higher so the slot value will be slightly higher but sproat was generally ranked ahead of where they picked him so i think he's a good proxy to the type of talent they would be giving up.
Wow, Danngets sports headaches. you weren’t in the mood?? I hear ya though, bud.
I’ve occasionally mentioned it in the last. I used to say a baseball junkie needs to experience spring training, buts that’s changed over the years. But for a an uber fan like you, I can suggest enough catching some backfield minor,league games if you ever head down there.
But even better, catch an FCL game. For a guy like you, you’d be a kid in a candy store!!!!
He’s slow??
No, homerun trot
He jogged out a HR?
No, walked. All of them.
How many?
(Cracks up laughing) ALOT!!!!!!
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7th overall pick in 2nd round of the 2023 draft had a pool number of Rockies: $1,868,400, the 7th pick in the 5th round had a pool number of Rangers: $437,900
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
1.5m was what sproat got last year (which was exactly slot). this years 2nd will be higher so the slot value will be slightly higher but sproat was generally ranked ahead of where they picked him so i think he's a good proxy to the type of talent they would be giving up.
+ 5th round pick and 5th round money, 8th pick in the 5th round was 433,500. So it's far, far closer to 2 million in lost money, 1.93,500 based on 2023's numbers and the pools go up, not down annually.
They’d win the lottery
Draft Griffin under slot first.
Then kill it with some mid round over slots!!!
But in Metsland… things don’t go that way 😞
the odds of getting that amount of production from prospect $ that's roughly equal to sproat, larez, thornton is exponentially lower, and at least 5 years deferred in the future.
and keep in mind that just like sproat/larez, if there are players they like better than them in those classes they will still get them because the penalty is smaller than their highest value choice (first round pick, biggest IFA signing).
100% go for yamamoto/montgomery first but if they go elsewhere don't turn the phone off.
right on time here's law's top 50, he has Shohei 1, Nola 3, Yamamoto 4, Gray 5, Montgomery 6, Snell 7, Rodriguez 8, Imanaga 11, Hendricks 12, Lugo 17. So seems like a pretty big drop off after those guys in the top 10 making 1 of them a must.
Keith Law’s top 50 MLB free agents: Shohei Ohtani is the headliner, but depth of class is weak - ( New Window )
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In comment 16271433 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
7th overall pick in 2nd round of the 2023 draft had a pool number of Rockies: $1,868,400, the 7th pick in the 5th round had a pool number of Rangers: $437,900
So maybe I'm confused with what the 1.5 number your citing is?
1.5m was what sproat got last year (which was exactly slot). this years 2nd will be higher so the slot value will be slightly higher but sproat was generally ranked ahead of where they picked him so i think he's a good proxy to the type of talent they would be giving up.
+ 5th round pick and 5th round money, 8th pick in the 5th round was 433,500. So it's far, far closer to 2 million in lost money, 1.93,500 based on 2023's numbers and the pools go up, not down annually.
the pools go up along with the slot values (which i said) but the value of the prospect is still the same. they lose slot value of their 2nd and 5th highest pick - which their 2nd round and 5th round picks last year approximate closest. unlike last year they arent going to get comp picks for losing players via FA so the picks they are risking should be their 2nd rd pick and 5th rd picks at slot value.
And I gave that number before Law's piece!
12:19 PM · Oct 31, 2023
"Daniel Wexler
@WexlerRules
It would. I think that’s very low. Got 15 before he proved he could start. I suspect he gets something like 3 for 39."
After first-round telephone interviews, the Mets began their in-person interviews on Wednesday with Carlos Mendoza, and are continuing on Thursday with Craig Counsell. There are believed to be one or maybe two other finalists, if we want to use that vague word (the Mets would push back on it).
Oakland manager Mark Kotsay has been in the mix, sources say, but it is unclear to what extent. The New York Post also linked former San Diego skipper Andy Green to the job.
it seems like they've toed a balance between it being obviously counsell's job and not talking to anyone in any way threatening to counsell being a clear top target (publicly at least).
On paper (which means next to nothing in November) the top of this draft is not as intriguing as last year. Wetherholt seeing time at SS should help his draft stock quite a bit. I'm intrigued by Seaver King. Caglianone with the Ohtani comps seems ridiculous (and unfair)
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The Mets are down to a few in-person manager interviews and are on track to make a hire within a week, league sources say.
After first-round telephone interviews, the Mets began their in-person interviews on Wednesday with Carlos Mendoza, and are continuing on Thursday with Craig Counsell. There are believed to be one or maybe two other finalists, if we want to use that vague word (the Mets would push back on it).
Oakland manager Mark Kotsay has been in the mix, sources say, but it is unclear to what extent. The New York Post also linked former San Diego skipper Andy Green to the job.
it seems like they've toed a balance between it being obviously counsell's job and not talking to anyone in any way threatening to counsell being a clear top target (publicly at least).
Also, the conspiracy theorist in me... it looks like a real search aka the league can't claim the Mets/Stearns tampered before they could.
i really have to say it would be so nice to do to philly what they did to us with wheeler - assuming law ends up right about nola.
Also, the conspiracy theorist in me... it looks like a real search aka the league can't claim the Mets/Stearns tampered before they could.
i think that would be a near impossible case to prove given that stearns and counsell were technically still part of the same org through sept 1. so there's only like a month in between and stearns wasnt even employed by the mets that entire time.
if there's a tampering case it would more likely be with stearns some time over the 2+ year pursuit than counsell in the brief period after stearns hire but before mil got eliminated. milwaukee has now twice given mets permission to talk to their guys a little early so it would seem that they aren't scorned but i suppose that could change.
Correct
The ballpark, which opened in 2009, was financed with 40-year and 37-year PILOT (payment in lieu of taxes) bonds at interest rates between 4.3% and 6.5%. Back then, the Mets were owned by the Wilpon and Katz families, who operated the New York City-owned ballpark (formerly known as Queens Ballpark LLC) through a lease agreement with the New York City Industrial Development Agency (NYCIDA) until 2049.
Link - ( New Window )
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projecting Lugo at roughly 3 for 39, and I'd do that. Unclear if he'd be willing to return. I think he's very similar to Quintana in value.
And I gave that number before Law's piece!
12:19 PM · Oct 31, 2023
"Daniel Wexler
@WexlerRules
It would. I think that’s very low. Got 15 before he proved he could start. I suspect he gets something like 3 for 39."
i think he's more likely to get 2 years than 3, but for mets i think a 3x30m makes a ton of sense to flatten out his lux tax hits and knowing he can shift to BP effectively. id be very happy with him as a 3rd SP who can compete for a rotation slot with peterson/megill/vasil and shift to BP if necessary.
i would imagine lugo doesnt care too much where he pitches other than how it impacts how much $ he gets since middle relievers dont get $30m.
if he's their 2nd SP signing that seems a little risky but he's a perfect 3rd SP/potential high leverage RP swing piece.
The ballpark, which opened in 2009, was financed with 40-year and 37-year PILOT (payment in lieu of taxes) bonds at interest rates between 4.3% and 6.5%. Back then, the Mets were owned by the Wilpon and Katz families, who operated the New York City-owned ballpark (formerly known as Queens Ballpark LLC) through a lease agreement with the New York City Industrial Development Agency (NYCIDA) until 2049. Link - ( New Window )
if memory serves this was done about 12 months before seidler and a bunch of others were screaming to "name 1 thing cohen has actually done better than the wilpons"?
have released nearly 30 players. Cole Gordon, Kolby Kubichek, Manuel Guance, Nick Meyer, Elliot Johnstone, Pedro Mercedes, Ramon Henriquez, Luis Castillo, Fernando Villalobos, Christopher Vasquez, Yordis Perera, Eric Santana, Gregory Leal, Jonaiker Palacios, Sammy Tavarez, Luis A Rodriguez (the righty), Joe Joe Rodriguez, Luis Montas, Dylan Hall, Chase Estep, Carlos Dominguez. Cesar Berbesi, Dyron Campos, Matt Minnick
More releases to announce-
17th round 2022 Connor Brandon, UDFA Mathieu Voros, IFA Adrian Hernandez, 2021 7th rounder Kevin Kendall.