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are rams biggest week 1 surprise?

Eric on Li : 9/11/2023 7:03 pm
thanks to the the cardinals the seahawks werent my survivor pick but they were in heavy consideration. on some sites they were projected as the top pick and they would have probably been mine if i didnt expect SEA to be a more desirable team to have as an option later on compared to WSH. they have another game vs the Rams later in the season after all.

obviously Kupp is already on IR, and in the offseason they lost their 3 best non-aaron donald defensive players in Floyd, Wagner, Ramsey. they ate 75m in dead$ this offseason which is 2nd most in the NFL. thanks to trades they havent made a 1st round pick since jared goff in 2016. their depth chart is littered with rookies, no-names, and players expected to be busts. they had an awful preseason. not that week 3 preseason means anything but going 0-3 and caping it with losing 41-0 to denver seemed a bad omen.

the seahawks on the other hand reunited with Bobby Wagner (he had 19 tackles in his return), added JSN to an already strong WR core, signed Dremont Jones and Julian Love to an already decent defense.

things went to script in the first half with the seahawks having 13-7 lead even with a missed fg - but somehow behind 5th round pick Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Kyren Williams the rams found a way to put up 30 even with maher missing 2 fgs, while shutting them out in the 2nd half and allowing only 12 yards and 1 first down. in the entire 2nd half.

maybe this is just one of those random week 1's but even if so that is an amazing 2nd half performance on the road.

the rams possessed the ball for almost 40 minutes (40 runs for 92 yards, 2.3 ypc).
neither team had a turnover.
both teams had 7 penalties for about 50 yards.

so nothing all that flukey they just beat them.
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SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/11/2023 7:05 pm : link
I thought the Bengals & Steelers looking so bad were more surprising. And of course us.
Good post...  
bw in dc : 9/11/2023 7:09 pm : link
I was watching a lot of that game. Stafford was awesome. His arm will be elite when he's 90 and doing AARP commercials.

On top of your analysis, look at the Rams OL. They are very young except Havenstein. But I didn't expect that performance. I expected Stafford to possibly be crushed. He was never sacked!
You mean behind us and Cincinnati  
robbieballs2003 : 9/11/2023 7:11 pm : link
?
Seahawks, Steelers and Bengals  
Ben in Tampa : 9/11/2023 7:13 pm : link
We’re all happy the Giants played in prime time yesterday.

Won with the under bet on the Rams.  
shockeyisthebest8056 : 9/11/2023 7:13 pm : link
The Seahawks beat the Rams twice last season by a combined margin of just 7 points with John Wolford and Baker Mayfield starting those games at QB. The Seahawks needed OT to beat the Rams in a “win and in” scenario for the postseason. They would’ve lost if Baker didn’t miss a WIDE OPEN receiver down the field late in the game. Stafford being back even with no Kupp and getting 6 points seemed like easy money. I know Seattle had a bunch of injuries.
Stafford’s deep passes  
thrunthrublue : 9/11/2023 7:18 pm : link
Are so accurate they look digital….great he is healthy again!
RE: Good post...  
Eric on Li : 9/11/2023 7:22 pm : link
In comment 16201798 bw in dc said:
Quote:
I was watching a lot of that game. Stafford was awesome. His arm will be elite when he's 90 and doing AARP commercials.

On top of your analysis, look at the Rams OL. They are very young except Havenstein. But I didn't expect that performance. I expected Stafford to possibly be crushed. He was never sacked!


you're right their OL holding up was shocking. should have mentioned that. rookie LG, new center, new LT (Jackson had played their before but i dont think he'd been their starter).
RE: You mean behind us and Cincinnati  
Eric on Li : 9/11/2023 7:31 pm : link
In comment 16201801 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
?


vegas would disagree - rams were 4.5-5.5 point underdog while bengals were 1-2 point favorite and giants were a 2.5-3.5 point underdog.

burrow had the calf injury and who knows how that impacted him. there was plenty of speculation he may not be ready week 1. they pulled their starters pretty early and even if he is now 100% he still missed almost all training camp so being rusty on the road isn't really shocking. browns were 7-10 last year with watson suspended and they've been a decent team with a good running game since stefanski got there (they ran for 200 yards).

nyg getting boat raced the way they did at home was pretty shocking, but the cowboys are a good team. sometimes good teams blow out other good teams, and the giants did not appear to be a good team.

it's rare that bad teams blow people out on the road and based on depth chart i would have sworn the rams were tanking for caleb williams this year.
RE: Won with the under bet on the Rams.  
Eric on Li : 9/11/2023 7:33 pm : link
In comment 16201809 shockeyisthebest8056 said:
Quote:
The Seahawks beat the Rams twice last season by a combined margin of just 7 points with John Wolford and Baker Mayfield starting those games at QB. The Seahawks needed OT to beat the Rams in a “win and in” scenario for the postseason. They would’ve lost if Baker didn’t miss a WIDE OPEN receiver down the field late in the game. Stafford being back even with no Kupp and getting 6 points seemed like easy money. I know Seattle had a bunch of injuries.


thats a good call maybe mcvay just has their number.
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BrettNYG10 : 9/12/2023 10:07 am : link
I thought: 1. The Seahawks were not as good as they were last year and revert a bit. 2. The Rams would be a 8-10 win team and contend for a WC spot. I had them winning this game. People forget how good Stafford is.
RE: ....  
Eric on Li : 9/12/2023 10:16 am : link
In comment 16202639 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I thought: 1. The Seahawks were not as good as they were last year and revert a bit. 2. The Rams would be a 8-10 win team and contend for a WC spot. I had them winning this game. People forget how good Stafford is.


maybe but his oline was really bad last year and all they added was avila so without kupp or a good running game it seemed like he'd be a sitting duck. his 2 main receivers were nacua a 5th rd pick and atwell, who most had given up on already. i liked kyren williams at ND but he was a udfa for a reason and akers hasnt been the same since achilles.

their defense was only on the field for 20 minutes and if there was 1 area where seattle was likely to regress it was Geno smith - but that unit may have the most unproven depth chart in the entire nfl.

here's a crazy stat on the rams roster - aaron donald is the only player not making the minimum or on a rookie deal on their entire defense.

they have $48m spent on their 24 player defense, and 26m of that is aaron donald. so they have 23 players making a combined 22m on their cap.

other than donald they only have 4 starters paid more than 2m per year, and 4 of them are on offense (stafford, noteboom, havenstein, higbee). so their offense has 81m on it but stafford and kupp make up about 47m of that.
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BrettNYG10 : 9/12/2023 10:38 am : link
That is insane, I didn't realize it was that bad, lol.
RE: .....  
Eric on Li : 9/12/2023 10:45 am : link
In comment 16202750 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
That is insane, I didn't realize it was that bad, lol.


they lost their top 6 defensive players by snaps last year. Bobby Wagner, Jalen Ramsey, Greg Gaines, Leonard Floyd, Taylor Rapp, Nick Scott. A'Shawn and Troy hill were 2 other starters.

their 3 returning starters are ernest jones, derion kendrick, and donald.

here's a screenshot of their depth chart - my initial reaction was straight out of the diner scene in major league. honestly just figured they were tanking for caleb williams.

Not for me, i thought people were way too premature  
Section331 : 9/12/2023 10:53 am : link
writing LAR’s obit. They still have some spectacular players, and if they stay healthy, will be a threat. Health is the #1 concern. Because they have no depth.

For me, the surprise of the weekend was Cleveland. I expected them to be decent, but that was a dominating performance against a legit SB contender. That defense is real. Could they win the AFCN? It’s not a crazy thought.
RE: Not for me, i thought people were way too premature  
Eric on Li : 9/12/2023 11:07 am : link
In comment 16202798 Section331 said:
Quote:
writing LAR’s obit. They still have some spectacular players, and if they stay healthy, will be a threat. Health is the #1 concern. Because they have no depth.

For me, the surprise of the weekend was Cleveland. I expected them to be decent, but that was a dominating performance against a legit SB contender. That defense is real. Could they win the AFCN? It’s not a crazy thought.


with kupp out they have 2 healthy spectacular players and whether or not stafford could be spectacular with the weapons/ol they have post-injury wasnt a given.
RE: .....  
bw in dc : 9/12/2023 12:42 pm : link
In comment 16202750 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
That is insane, I didn't realize it was that bad, lol.


Insane is an understatement. It's actually an interesting experiment going on here. Can great coaching (McVey is) combine with a great QB, a transcendent defensive player, and a super majority of low cost players win and compete for the playoffs? Can this staff coach and develop this team around those two critical parts?

I'm dying to find out...
RE: RE: .....  
Eric on Li : 9/12/2023 12:44 pm : link
In comment 16203107 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16202750 BrettNYG10 said:


Quote:


That is insane, I didn't realize it was that bad, lol.



Insane is an understatement. It's actually an interesting experiment going on here. Can great coaching (McVey is) combine with a great QB, a transcendent defensive player, and a super majority of low cost players win and compete for the playoffs? Can this staff coach and develop this team around those two critical parts?

I'm dying to find out...


i assume they will fizzle and end up under .500 but it looks like they may be fun along the way because mcvay is as good as he is and playing with effort and a good qb can overcome other stuff.
RE: ....  
BillKo : 9/12/2023 1:30 pm : link
In comment 16202639 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I thought: 1. The Seahawks were not as good as they were last year and revert a bit. 2. The Rams would be a 8-10 win team and contend for a WC spot. I had them winning this game. People forget how good Stafford is.


Brett - interesting. I have always been a huge Stafford fan but for whatever reason, his teams seem to underachieve (sans the SB team of course).

Right now, the Rams look like "Lions West", the old Lions we know and Stafford is the QB - with similar results pending. But that would probably result in 8 to 10 wins.

We'll see if he can avoid injury.
lions west is an interesting comparison  
Eric on Li : 9/12/2023 1:34 pm : link
that team has gotten pretty far with a competent QB, good coaching, and scrappiness. last year their defense didnt really have much other than hutchinson and even though their offense lacked playmakers they battled and played a lot of shootouts.

i can kind of see a formula with mcvay, donald, stafford, kupp doing that - if the rest of the no name roster can play with that same detroit scrappiness.
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BrettNYG10 : 9/12/2023 1:45 pm : link
Bill, I value the elite players way more than most--I think Stafford, Kupp when he comes back, and Donald are enough to pull that franchise up to average.

I don't think it's good enough to compete for a title, but I can see them getting a WC spot in a weak NFC.
RE: ....  
Eric on Li : 9/12/2023 1:49 pm : link
In comment 16203271 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Bill, I value the elite players way more than most--I think Stafford, Kupp when he comes back, and Donald are enough to pull that franchise up to average.

I don't think it's good enough to compete for a title, but I can see them getting a WC spot in a weak NFC.


following the lions west thing, i guess you can argue the lions had a strong OL that helped raise everyone up, but i think you could say they did the same to almost win a WC last year with goff/amonra/hutchinson last year.

donald, stafford, kupp (and mcvay) are all an even higher end version of that if they can pass protect.
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BrettNYG10 : 9/12/2023 1:56 pm : link
I thought Bill was saying that the Rams are like the Lions were with Stafford not now, but I could be misinterpreting?

I think the Lions have more depth than I thought going into last season. I also like Goff, although I think he's in that 10-15 range.
RE: RE: RE: .....  
bw in dc : 9/12/2023 2:49 pm : link
In comment 16203112 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16203107 bw in dc said:


Insane is an understatement. It's actually an interesting experiment going on here. Can great coaching (McVey is) combine with a great QB, a transcendent defensive player, and a super majority of low cost players win and compete for the playoffs? Can this staff coach and develop this team around those two critical parts?

I'm dying to find out...



i assume they will fizzle and end up under .500 but it looks like they may be fun along the way because mcvay is as good as he is and playing with effort and a good qb can overcome other stuff.


That seems the likely outcome. But...if Kupp can get healthy, all bets are off.

I was just listening to Mark Sanchez on Cowherd. He did the Rams-Seahawks game. He said it was great coaching by McVey with the way he has restructured their running game. They went gap-trap man to man blocking instead of his zone schemes. And he said it was perfection between the OL and the backs.

He said Stafford looks great.
RE: ....  
Eric on Li : 9/12/2023 5:02 pm : link
In comment 16203299 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
I thought Bill was saying that the Rams are like the Lions were with Stafford not now, but I could be misinterpreting?

I think the Lions have more depth than I thought going into last season. I also like Goff, although I think he's in that 10-15 range.


i think you are right on what his point was, his observation led me to see more of a possible connection with this recent vintage of the lions.

the lions with stafford were usually bad. a lot of that time it was him playing underachieving football. this recent lions team despite being outgunned and coached by a trenches guy took an interesting and unique gameplan last year playing up tempo and aggressive even if it got them into shootouts they didnt always win.

the rams did exactly that against seattle right down to mcvay being aggressive on 4th downs. it's like the gameplan is we have stafford, we know how to scheme receivers open, we are going balls to the wall as long as the protection holds up so either your qb keeps up with us and we lose or he doesnt like geno smith and we win.
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