2 point conversion help

I think most saw it the way you did. Glad it never happened.

if they score again, and still puts tie in play if you miss.

Glad they did not go it. They also may have had a play they REALLY liked and thought it was abetter than normal chance of success.

Whether they miss or succeed on the 2pt conversion, another TD will be needed. Chances of a successful 2pt conversion with 2 chances at it is probably pretty good AND it puts you in a position to win instead of going to OT.

If you convert the 2pt conversion it opens up the option for 2 FGs. If you fail to convert the 2 pt conversion, you just go for the next TD which if you get it there is the same as if you had kicked 2 extra points. Defenses can clamp down in the red zone because of short field. Being in position where they only thing that will help you is a TD is bad place to be.

at a rate higher than 50% the numbers say go for it. If you get the first one you go to 29-28 if you score another TD. If you miss the first one you go for it again and the odds say you'll get 1 of the 2 to at least get it back to 28-28.

If you succeed, another TD+1 wins the game, or opens up the two FGs to tie scenario.

I liked the call initially. You come all the way back, might as well try everything you can to make sure you can win.

The penalty made it moot

it is the more prudent to go for 2 in that scenario.

Quote:

We’re going to go a lot further with this, but even this first cut of analysis reveals a couple of important cases where the conventional wisdom is wrong. In particular: If you’re down 8 points after scoring a touchdown (with 10 minutes left), you should go for 2, because the difference between being down 7 points (if you make the extra point) and being down 6 points (if you convert the 2) is greater than the difference between being down 7 points and being down 8 points (if you miss the 2-point conversion). Note that this is backed up by the numbers but should also be apparent intuitively. If you’re down 4 points after scoring a touchdown (with 10 minutes left), you should go for 2, because being down 2 points instead of 3 helps you more than being down 4 points instead of 3 hurts you. This one is a bit more counterintuitive, but if you think ahead, the second point means a future field goal could win the game (and if you don’t convert, you just have to adjust to go for winning touchdowns instead of tying field goals).

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presented itself to Shurmur a few years ago and he made the same decision. The math hasn't changed since then.

unless it's to tie a game or put you within 1 score. All other scenarios in going for 2 are just plain stupid. Especially doing it outside of the 4th quarter.

of like group research in medicine or psychology. What the data show for a group may not hold true for an individual person. The specific game is the individual person. Given the context of the game yesterday, I think the Giants had all of the momentum and the cards couldn't do anything right by the end. In that scenario, the conservative route of two XPs followed by OT if necessary would work fine for me. In a different game with back and forth scoring all 2nd half, sure, maybe go for two. Trying to apply group data in a vacuum without context doesn't often work in other areas. My guess is that probably holds true for football games sometimes too.

Doesn't work.

DJ was on fire at that point in time. I felt pretty good that we’d be successful.

See below
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