in the nexus between scouting and assessing/decision making.
The Niners did same thing with Lance. Teams sometimes fixate on a guy and ignore negatives because they have to get their guy.
The Lance thing is confounding because I think going back to high school the guy has like less than 500 throws total in his life of competitive football.
I think it was the COVID draft and a lot of teams were stuck flatfooted and had to draft like they did in the 60s.
Some times these teams fall victim to social network hype that seems to just get tossed out there builds and spreads like wildfire in scouting circles and this seemed to be case where folks excused the usual needs on a guy. Folks tried to point to Josh Allen as an example of why folks could continue ignoring Lances lacking any pedigree of experience or level of competition but Allen had two solid years of tape when he was drafted.
MILF's have been known to drain the life out of young men.
As noted above his stats were unreal. His final year was the highest ranked BYU team since 96 and the first ranked BYU team in over a decade. He had a cannon and was athletic. Even Sy had a high number on him although he noted he has too much backyard football in his game. He was a boom or bust pick and he turned out an awful bust
RE: RE: I don't remember him doing much of anything special at
They clearly are afraid to have him throw down the middle of the field. Most of his completions were to the sidelines. He’s also looking at the pass rush around him and anticipating the sack. But the Jets have no one else to go to. A trade for anyone decent (Cousins, Jamesis) will cost a lot and they can’t just step in and run Hacket’ system.
Wilson was ranked very highly before the combine, a lot of people are talking out of their ass here.
Exactly.
People are acting like if schoen was picking second he would have taken someone else LOL
Wilson was very highly rated and most had him second off board.
The simple answer is jets OL is bad and not all QBs who are drafted pan out. Busts happen….
My personal view is that outside of the 'generational' QBs, it's largely a crapshoot. You go back an analyze these guys a priori and you can craft a narrative predicting failure or success.
Burrow was a one year wonder, Allen had shit numbers at a non-elite program, etc.
The GMs are highly trained and highly incentivized and they constantly mess up. The Niners swung and missed badly on Lance and they are a superbly run organization.
I think it's much more luck than we like to think.
are going to be good enough to stake out a couple wins where even thinking of a joker card and drafting another QB early isn’t really feasible. They gave up a 2nd this coming year for Rodgers. They’re all in again for 2024 with Rodgers and if that doesn’t work or even if it does, they will have to have a plan at QB for 2025 and beyond.
Wilson was ranked very highly before the combine, a lot of people are talking out of their ass here.
Exactly.
People are acting like if schoen was picking second he would have taken someone else LOL
Wilson was very highly rated and most had him second off board.
The simple answer is jets OL is bad and not all QBs who are drafted pan out. Busts happen….
My personal view is that outside of the 'generational' QBs, it's largely a crapshoot. You go back an analyze these guys a priori and you can craft a narrative predicting failure or success.
Burrow was a one year wonder, Allen had shit numbers at a non-elite program, etc.
The GMs are highly trained and highly incentivized and they constantly mess up. The Niners swung and missed badly on Lance and they are a superbly run organization.
I think it's much more luck than we like to think.
Doesn't mean we can't laugh at the Jets, though.
Niners gambled on Lance with his athletic score and abilities. It’s served them so well at other positions. But they really didn’t do homework on his fundamentals tutelage or projection.
As for Wilson, in the BYU games I saw, the offense was very QB friendly but definitely not a sufficiently pro style offense. Lot of high percentage throws and quick one shot reads. Amped up the stats a lot. Always a risk with projecting players out of some systems and how they take to higher levels of competition and complexity.
what burrow did was the exception, very few true one year wonders work out. every player is different but some were even comp'ing kenny pickett's situation to burrows. zach wilson was the year after burrow and had a better prospect resume than pickett, but the reality is 1 year wonders have really high bust rates. quarterbacks in general have high bust rates and if you subset it down to guys who only had 1 good year the rate goes even higher.
Wilson was ranked very highly before the combine, a lot of people are talking out of their ass here.
Exactly.
People are acting like if schoen was picking second he would have taken someone else LOL
Wilson was very highly rated and most had him second off board.
The simple answer is jets OL is bad and not all QBs who are drafted pan out. Busts happen….
My personal view is that outside of the 'generational' QBs, it's largely a crapshoot. You go back an analyze these guys a priori and you can craft a narrative predicting failure or success.
Burrow was a one year wonder, Allen had shit numbers at a non-elite program, etc.
The GMs are highly trained and highly incentivized and they constantly mess up. The Niners swung and missed badly on Lance and they are a superbly run organization.
I think it's much more luck than we like to think.
Doesn't mean we can't laugh at the Jets, though.
Niners gambled on Lance with his athletic score and abilities. It’s served them so well at other positions. But they really didn’t do homework on his fundamentals tutelage or projection.
As for Wilson, in the BYU games I saw, the offense was very QB friendly but definitely not a sufficiently pro style offense. Lot of high percentage throws and quick one shot reads. Amped up the stats a lot. Always a risk with projecting players out of some systems and how they take to higher levels of competition and complexity.
Wasn't there criticism of Mahomes being a system QB in a non-NFL system?
How much would it cost for them to try and get Minshew or Dalton. Both played due to injury but both are the clear backups due to the young QBs drafted on their teams
The few Jet fan friends I have would take Darnold back over Wilson
He needs out of NY at this point and go to an offensive minded staff
but I’ve never seen an NFL QB look physically smaller than him - it’s like a high school kid got a chance to quarterback an NFL team. He looks completely overmatched out there.
Never saw a physically smaller NFL QB? Have you looked at the top two QBs picked this year? How about Kyler Murray?
is not looking so good. Trevor Lawrence might be the only one that gets to a second contract. It seems that the NFL and CFB game are so different now that the evaluators are not able to identify which QBs have sufficient physical and mental skills to make the jump to the NFL.
The COVID 2020 season hurt a lot of QB evals IMO. Look @ Lance & Wilson going as high as both did.
I don’t think so, it’s not like those players weren’t going to get taken high. IIRC the trade happened more than a month before the draft which means Shanahan was completely confident in the move. It was a bad QB class, it happens pretty regularly.
as hard as he should. That is where doing your homework in the personnel dept is so important. Talk to college coaches, HS coaches, players, find out what his work habits are. Sure, most are going to blow smoke and tell you what a great teammate he is, but eventually, someone is gong to tell the truth.
had not been killed in an accident before ZW first training camp?
What actually occurred was a kid OC in his first big job. Never an OC, and now not only has to design an offense, install said offense, and train a rookie QB who has tremendous arm talent, good movement talent but little else equating to good-to-go. In addition, although investment has been made, a series of unfortunate events have never equated with fielding a dominant o-line.
In hindsight, how was this supposed to work? A miracle perhaps?
And how the Pats snatched him up recently? Was that after the Rodgers injury? Because I have to say that sounds like an epic underrated belichick move to take him away as a potential option for the Jets. They should go get Taylor Heinecke...anything is better than Wilson right now
Kid just doesn’t have it mentally, but it’s more than that.
He just doesn’t seem motivated to fight the perception that he’s the worst QB ever since football was invented. Hell, people probably think he’s the worst football player since pigskin was removed from a pig.
Obviously situation is totally different, but KT needs to show he has more of a fight in him as well. When you are being criticized nonstop, and your reaction is blaming others ans making excuse after another, that’s alarming.
To me, the biggest was anointing him the starter right away with no real veteran backup. I know the nature of the cap and rookie deals often precludes the old 2-3 year waiting on the bench to learn from the veteran starter. But, you have to at least have a decent veteran back-up to help the kid process the pro game.
from the press box wide shot replay camera he is pausing the video, pointing out all the wide open receivers, and at what moment Zach should have let it fly to them, over and over....the Jets receivers were getting separation. At times Danny does the same thing especially in games when he is getting rattled by the pass rush, which is really every game.
The WFAN blowhards talk about getting another QB as if they were a baseball team looking for a pitcher at the deadline. How does that work in football ? Anyone they bring in is going to take some time to get up to speed and even then they are going to have to play behind an OL that's as horrible as anything Eli had to deal with late in his career. At best they get a mediocre vet who'll be gone in year and they're back to square one.
Here's an idea. Since Rogers is gone there's no need to keep his coffee boy around as the OC. A guy who failed with Russell Wilson isn't going to able to straighten out Zach. They should bump up someone who can work with a young QB, if they even have such a person in the organization.
what burrow did was the exception, very few true one year wonders work out. every player is different but some were even comp'ing kenny pickett's situation to burrows. zach wilson was the year after burrow and had a better prospect resume than pickett, but the reality is 1 year wonders have really high bust rates. quarterbacks in general have high bust rates and if you subset it down to guys who only had 1 good year the rate goes even higher.
My recollection is that both Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers were one year wonders. I'd love to see an analysis (but not enough to do it myself, obviously).
Wilson is a high risk-high reward guy and Saleh wants a run oriented, controlled short passing game. (I don't know if he would have been happy with Rodgers either, but I don't think he had any choice if he wants to keep the job) At any rate, they've got Wilson averaging 3 air yards a throw, and he's not that kind of qb.
I think Saleh is getting the axe at the end of the season anyway. We'll see if the next coach wants to keep Wilson, and if so, whether they change up the offense to take advantage of whatever strengths he has.
who cares if Wilson can throw the ball through a brick wall. HE cannot play the position because he cannot process what is happening. College game is easier.
Wilson is a high risk-high reward guy and Saleh wants a run oriented, controlled short passing game. (I don't know if he would have been happy with Rodgers either, but I don't think he had any choice if he wants to keep the job).
Good observation. It’s been whispered by some Jets reporters that Saleh was pushing for Derek Carr.
what burrow did was the exception, very few true one year wonders work out. every player is different but some were even comp'ing kenny pickett's situation to burrows. zach wilson was the year after burrow and had a better prospect resume than pickett, but the reality is 1 year wonders have really high bust rates. quarterbacks in general have high bust rates and if you subset it down to guys who only had 1 good year the rate goes even higher.
My recollection is that both Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers were one year wonders. I'd love to see an analysis (but not enough to do it myself, obviously).
Roethlisberger was a late riser as prospect his eligible year but he was a three year starter. Rivers started four straight seasons. Tremendous buildup of game and season to season changes experience and really good production in last two campaigns as starters in college even if not in the prime conference at the time.
is just one of many 10 QBs who have busted. Darnold is another, although he is better than Wilson. Both QBs would have been taken in the top 10 if the Jets had passed on either.
how and why the Jets allowed for this to happen. They had to have a better backup for Rodgers. Wilson hasn't earned the kind of trust that leads to being the backup QB on a win now team with an older vet QB. He should have red-shirted this season and the Jets should have signed one of the many viable FA vet QBs available. Shame on the Jets for letting this happen.
Wow Tiki just stormed out during the Benigno interview.
Benigno kind of insulted him, saying he’s a Giant and doesn’t care about the Jets and doesn’t analyze them properly - Tiki turned his mic off and said “that’s bullshit, Joe” and left.
with Wilson. A BIG No. He was particularly upset on a play were ZW just sat down.....something the great Namath never did even with both knees held together with stitches and bailing wire......
Quote:
in the nexus between scouting and assessing/decision making.
The Niners did same thing with Lance. Teams sometimes fixate on a guy and ignore negatives because they have to get their guy.
The Lance thing is confounding because I think going back to high school the guy has like less than 500 throws total in his life of competitive football.
I think it was the COVID draft and a lot of teams were stuck flatfooted and had to draft like they did in the 60s.
Some times these teams fall victim to social network hype that seems to just get tossed out there builds and spreads like wildfire in scouting circles and this seemed to be case where folks excused the usual needs on a guy. Folks tried to point to Josh Allen as an example of why folks could continue ignoring Lances lacking any pedigree of experience or level of competition but Allen had two solid years of tape when he was drafted.
Quote:
BYU, seemed like an awful pick.
Senior Year BYU (12 Games)
247 Completions
336 Attempts
73.5% Completion Rate
3,692 Passing Yards
33 TDs / 3 INTs
196.4 Passer Efficiency Rating
Yeah, against who? Northern Hamburger State University? They played no one. Hence, the blown up stats.
BYU normally plays good competition but played nobody his senior year. He processes too slow and is inaccurate. That QB draft looks bad.
Exactly.
People are acting like if schoen was picking second he would have taken someone else LOL
Wilson was very highly rated and most had him second off board.
The simple answer is jets OL is bad and not all QBs who are drafted pan out. Busts happen….
KC is up next so no relief up ahead.
Quote:
Wilson was ranked very highly before the combine, a lot of people are talking out of their ass here.
Exactly.
People are acting like if schoen was picking second he would have taken someone else LOL
Wilson was very highly rated and most had him second off board.
The simple answer is jets OL is bad and not all QBs who are drafted pan out. Busts happen….
My personal view is that outside of the 'generational' QBs, it's largely a crapshoot. You go back an analyze these guys a priori and you can craft a narrative predicting failure or success.
Burrow was a one year wonder, Allen had shit numbers at a non-elite program, etc.
The GMs are highly trained and highly incentivized and they constantly mess up. The Niners swung and missed badly on Lance and they are a superbly run organization.
I think it's much more luck than we like to think.
Doesn't mean we can't laugh at the Jets, though.
Quote:
In comment 16220470 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Wilson was ranked very highly before the combine, a lot of people are talking out of their ass here.
Exactly.
People are acting like if schoen was picking second he would have taken someone else LOL
Wilson was very highly rated and most had him second off board.
The simple answer is jets OL is bad and not all QBs who are drafted pan out. Busts happen….
My personal view is that outside of the 'generational' QBs, it's largely a crapshoot. You go back an analyze these guys a priori and you can craft a narrative predicting failure or success.
Burrow was a one year wonder, Allen had shit numbers at a non-elite program, etc.
The GMs are highly trained and highly incentivized and they constantly mess up. The Niners swung and missed badly on Lance and they are a superbly run organization.
I think it's much more luck than we like to think.
Doesn't mean we can't laugh at the Jets, though.
Niners gambled on Lance with his athletic score and abilities. It’s served them so well at other positions. But they really didn’t do homework on his fundamentals tutelage or projection.
As for Wilson, in the BYU games I saw, the offense was very QB friendly but definitely not a sufficiently pro style offense. Lot of high percentage throws and quick one shot reads. Amped up the stats a lot. Always a risk with projecting players out of some systems and how they take to higher levels of competition and complexity.
Quote:
In comment 16220472 BleedBlue said:
Quote:
In comment 16220470 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Wilson was ranked very highly before the combine, a lot of people are talking out of their ass here.
Exactly.
People are acting like if schoen was picking second he would have taken someone else LOL
Wilson was very highly rated and most had him second off board.
The simple answer is jets OL is bad and not all QBs who are drafted pan out. Busts happen….
My personal view is that outside of the 'generational' QBs, it's largely a crapshoot. You go back an analyze these guys a priori and you can craft a narrative predicting failure or success.
Burrow was a one year wonder, Allen had shit numbers at a non-elite program, etc.
The GMs are highly trained and highly incentivized and they constantly mess up. The Niners swung and missed badly on Lance and they are a superbly run organization.
I think it's much more luck than we like to think.
Doesn't mean we can't laugh at the Jets, though.
Niners gambled on Lance with his athletic score and abilities. It’s served them so well at other positions. But they really didn’t do homework on his fundamentals tutelage or projection.
As for Wilson, in the BYU games I saw, the offense was very QB friendly but definitely not a sufficiently pro style offense. Lot of high percentage throws and quick one shot reads. Amped up the stats a lot. Always a risk with projecting players out of some systems and how they take to higher levels of competition and complexity.
Wasn't there criticism of Mahomes being a system QB in a non-NFL system?
The few Jet fan friends I have would take Darnold back over Wilson
He needs out of NY at this point and go to an offensive minded staff
Never saw a physically smaller NFL QB? Have you looked at the top two QBs picked this year? How about Kyler Murray?
His issue isn't size. He just isn't any good.
Quote:
to face the pressure of being a pro QB. That was where it started. Defies common sense.
Steve Young is literally Mormon royalty (the descendant of Brigham Young) and I think he did alright.
Young was from Greenwich CT. Didn’t know there were Mormons in CT
I don’t think so, it’s not like those players weren’t going to get taken high. IIRC the trade happened more than a month before the draft which means Shanahan was completely confident in the move. It was a bad QB class, it happens pretty regularly.
Why did my son's company hire the woman for a high paying job, who came in with a great resume and references but turned out to be a disaster?
Why did my former summer camp hire a complete asshole to be their CEO?
Bad hires happen all over, not just in the NFL....
What actually occurred was a kid OC in his first big job. Never an OC, and now not only has to design an offense, install said offense, and train a rookie QB who has tremendous arm talent, good movement talent but little else equating to good-to-go. In addition, although investment has been made, a series of unfortunate events have never equated with fielding a dominant o-line.
In hindsight, how was this supposed to work? A miracle perhaps?
Obviously situation is totally different, but KT needs to show he has more of a fight in him as well. When you are being criticized nonstop, and your reaction is blaming others ans making excuse after another, that’s alarming.
Here's an idea. Since Rogers is gone there's no need to keep his coffee boy around as the OC. A guy who failed with Russell Wilson isn't going to able to straighten out Zach. They should bump up someone who can work with a young QB, if they even have such a person in the organization.
My recollection is that both Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers were one year wonders. I'd love to see an analysis (but not enough to do it myself, obviously).
Darnold is much better than Wilson too.
I think Saleh is getting the axe at the end of the season anyway. We'll see if the next coach wants to keep Wilson, and if so, whether they change up the offense to take advantage of whatever strengths he has.
Good observation. It’s been whispered by some Jets reporters that Saleh was pushing for Derek Carr.
Quote:
what burrow did was the exception, very few true one year wonders work out. every player is different but some were even comp'ing kenny pickett's situation to burrows. zach wilson was the year after burrow and had a better prospect resume than pickett, but the reality is 1 year wonders have really high bust rates. quarterbacks in general have high bust rates and if you subset it down to guys who only had 1 good year the rate goes even higher.
My recollection is that both Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers were one year wonders. I'd love to see an analysis (but not enough to do it myself, obviously).
Roethlisberger was a late riser as prospect his eligible year but he was a three year starter. Rivers started four straight seasons. Tremendous buildup of game and season to season changes experience and really good production in last two campaigns as starters in college even if not in the prime conference at the time.
They are not beating the Chiefs, they are not beating the Eagles, they are not beating the Giants.
BT scoffs and starts getting condescending on the Giants. He mentions, with our defense?
I am not saying the Giants earned any "gimmies" but F off Jets fans. This is why the futility needs to continue.
Quote:
In comment 16220449 Ike#88 said:
Quote:
to face the pressure of being a pro QB. That was where it started. Defies common sense.
Steve Young is literally Mormon royalty (the descendant of Brigham Young) and I think he did alright.
Young was from Greenwich CT. Didn’t know there were Mormons in CT
I just looked it up. Steve was born in Salt Lake UT. Don't know how he ended up in Greenwich CT, but he is a Mormon.
He went to BYU, which is named after his great-great-great-grandfather, Brigham Young.