Met starting pitching will likely include Senga Quintana and two players not currently on roster
bullpen will include Diaz Ottavino and Raley
what will be the roles (if any) of Peterson,Megill, Luchesi, Butto Bickford and Kay
will they bring back Robertson or add any other relievers
I think the Cohen dollars will go to two starting pitchers and a back-up catcher and Alonso.
How about some of the up and coming pitchers, like Mike Vasil ?
Nope, Nope and nope
Acuna is the Mets only "good" prospect currently on the 40 man but not the big league roster.
It's based on age the year you were drafted and/or signed. 18 or younger when you sign you have 5 seasons, older and you have 4.
Luisangel Acuna was on base twice...he legged out two infield hits that would probably been easy outs to almost any other ballplayer.
This kid is quick. He's going to be fun to watch at the top of the order.
Acuna is a favorite on this board but is hitting 250 in double A.
May be good of maybe like Locastro or Travis Janakowski- great speed but cannot get a hit against major league pitching.
Williams and Gilbert seem like the best prospects at double A or triple A.
Acuna is a favorite on this board but is hitting 250 in double A.
May be good of maybe like Locastro or Travis Janakowski- great speed but cannot get a hit against major league pitching.
Williams and Gilbert seem like the best prospects at double A or triple A.
Acuna is 3 years younger than the average player in the EL. For context he's 2 years younger than Vientos, nearly 3 years younger than Baty. He certainly hasn't been great post trade but it's been a whopping 148 ab's.
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That is interesting. It's pretty much fait accompli that Mauricio starts the year with the big club at this point next season right?
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wrinkle I didn't notice top 2 ROY finishers get an extra year of service time. Unlikely Alvarez finishes top 2 but still interesting.
That is interesting. It's pretty much fait accompli that Mauricio starts the year with the big club at this point next season right?
I'd say it's high odds. I wouldn't say it's a guarantee given we don't know the makeup of the roster but high odds. Mauricio also has to crack 2/3 of the top 100 lists come OD or he's not eligible for a PPI pick. He's currently #99 on BA's list, 87 on pipeline so it's going to close.
New incentive program.
"To qualify their clubs for a PPI draft pick after the first round next year, the eligible ROY winners must accrue one year of service as rookies this season. Because one year of service is equal to 172 days on the active roster, players must break camp with the major league team or be called up within the first two weeks of the season."
In addition
" If a player finishes top three in either MVP or Cy Young voting, a tall order, he will also earn his team a pick after the first round."
PPI - ( New Window )
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In comment 16221984 DanMetroMan said:
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wrinkle I didn't notice top 2 ROY finishers get an extra year of service time. Unlikely Alvarez finishes top 2 but still interesting.
That is interesting. It's pretty much fait accompli that Mauricio starts the year with the big club at this point next season right?
I'd say it's high odds. I wouldn't say it's a guarantee given we don't know the makeup of the roster but high odds. Mauricio also has to crack 2/3 of the top 100 lists come OD or he's not eligible for a PPI pick. He's currently #99 on BA's list, 87 on pipeline so it's going to close.
What's the third organization besides Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Dan?
A trade might need to happen with one of Baty/Mauricio/Vientos. There aren't gonna be enough chairs when the music stops for all three of them unless someone goes to LF. That definitely bears watching. The Alonso extension talks this offseason are another matter that bears watching.
I think it's really obvious that a trade or trades needs to happen because Acuña and Jett are knocking on the door in short order, and I think the Mets have to view them as key parts of the future, and then you have Drew Gilbert... I have to think he's the guy they'd prefer to have in the OF.
Good problem to have, and will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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In comment 16221990 Optimus-NY said:
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In comment 16221984 DanMetroMan said:
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wrinkle I didn't notice top 2 ROY finishers get an extra year of service time. Unlikely Alvarez finishes top 2 but still interesting.
That is interesting. It's pretty much fait accompli that Mauricio starts the year with the big club at this point next season right?
I'd say it's high odds. I wouldn't say it's a guarantee given we don't know the makeup of the roster but high odds. Mauricio also has to crack 2/3 of the top 100 lists come OD or he's not eligible for a PPI pick. He's currently #99 on BA's list, 87 on pipeline so it's going to close.
What's the third organization besides Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Dan?
BP but they have traditionally not been high on Mauricio so I'd say it's unlikely he places on their top 101.
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In comment 16221996 DanMetroMan said:
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In comment 16221990 Optimus-NY said:
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In comment 16221984 DanMetroMan said:
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wrinkle I didn't notice top 2 ROY finishers get an extra year of service time. Unlikely Alvarez finishes top 2 but still interesting.
That is interesting. It's pretty much fait accompli that Mauricio starts the year with the big club at this point next season right?
I'd say it's high odds. I wouldn't say it's a guarantee given we don't know the makeup of the roster but high odds. Mauricio also has to crack 2/3 of the top 100 lists come OD or he's not eligible for a PPI pick. He's currently #99 on BA's list, 87 on pipeline so it's going to close.
What's the third organization besides Baseball America and MLB Pipeline Dan?
BP but they have traditionally not been high on Mauricio so I'd say it's unlikely he places on their top 101.
Thank you Dan :-) I totally forgot about Baseball Prospectus.
1. Joe Posnanski's "Why we love baseball: A history in 50 moments"
2. The Tao of the backup catcher by Tim Brown with Erik Kratz (the Ex-Phillie, Yankee etc). I haven't finished this one but so far 1/4 very good, bunch of Mets references too.
I don't think Vientos has a position, really. He's bad at 3rd and 1st and looks too slow to play outfield in the modern game. (Maybe if it were 1946, he'd be a left fielder.) He's a DH and backup 3B/1B. Probably with another team.
Baty is a puzzle. He's got a gorgeous swing but was very disappointing this season.
Looking at up-the-middle defense, Alvarez looks like the guy for the next 10+ years. Lindor isn't going anywhere. Who's the 2nd baseman, McNeil, Mauricio, Acuña or Williams? Who's the CF, Nimmo, Acuña or Williams?
1. Joe Posnanski's "Why we love baseball: A history in 50 moments"
2. The Tao of the backup catcher by Tim Brown with Erik Kratz (the Ex-Phillie, Yankee etc). I haven't finished this one but so far 1/4 very good, bunch of Mets references too.
Plenty of fascinating things so far but one thing that stood out is that Theo Epstein (portrayed as an "analytics only" robot) learned to view the backup C role as one based on intangibles vs. numbers
I don't think Vientos has a position, really. He's bad at 3rd and 1st and looks too slow to play outfield in the modern game. (Maybe if it were 1946, he'd be a left fielder.) He's a DH and backup 3B/1B. Probably with another team.
Baty is a puzzle. He's got a gorgeous swing but was very disappointing this season.
Looking at up-the-middle defense, Alvarez looks like the guy for the next 10+ years. Lindor isn't going anywhere. Who's the 2nd baseman, McNeil, Mauricio, Acuña or Williams? Who's the CF, Nimmo, Acuña or Williams?
Jeff McNeil will be 32 in 2024 so if we are talking about "long term" it probably won't include McNeil as a part of that core for "that long". No knock on McNeil. His versatility (assuming he's still here) will remain valuable. Nimmo is almost certainly headed to LF, probably not 2024, but 2025 certainly a possibility.
@Mets
Tonight’s game against Miami has been postponed due to weather-related field conditions. It will be made up as part of a single admission doubleheader tomorrow, Wednesday, Sept. 27 beginning at 4:10 p.m.
8:20 PM · Sep 26, 2023
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Yeah. Nimmo career worse -7 DRS in CF, 0 OAA. For comparisons sake 2022 -3 and +6 and 2021 +4 and +4. Also a career worse 4 errors, had 4 for his entire career in CF prior to this season. Could easily be a one year blip but he’s almost certainly moving to LF in the “near” future. If that’s 2025 or 2026, who knows.
he also had those 3 or 4 bizarre drops that cost them runs in may/june. my guess is that's the difference between his oaa and drs, or at least a chunk of it.
when they signed marte i thought it was smart to have a 2nd CF option to go along with him just so he wouldnt have to put as much on his legs but that was before the groin issues so going forward that's something they obviously need to figure out. maybe that's mcneil (or jett, or gilbert) but ideally he's not a full time CF for more than 1 or 2 more seasons.
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Noting that Nimmo’s sprint speed had gone from 92nd percentile (28.9 f/ps in 2021) to 84th percentile 28.7 f/ps to 2023 67th percentile 28 f/ps so it does appear he’s maybe lost a step speed wise which would explain his down range numbers
he also had those 3 or 4 bizarre drops that cost them runs in may/june. my guess is that's the difference between his oaa and drs, or at least a chunk of it.
when they signed marte i thought it was smart to have a 2nd CF option to go along with him just so he wouldnt have to put as much on his legs but that was before the groin issues so going forward that's something they obviously need to figure out. maybe that's mcneil (or jett, or gilbert) but ideally he's not a full time CF for more than 1 or 2 more seasons.
I don't think it will be an issue. IMO, the job will be Gilbert's by 2025.
I'd really try to deal for Soto. Let's say a package of Parada/Acuna. Just breaking up the DH logjam and IF log jam a bit. By 2025 I could see the following:
LF: Nimmo
SS: Lindor
RF: Soto
1B: Alonso
C: Alvarez
DH Vientos
3B: Baty/Mauricio
2B: Jett
cF: Gilbert
Mauricio could bounce around the IF/DH if Baty wins the job and still play most days. McNeil to provide additional IF and OF depth. Not bad.
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i dont see much positional advantage to a corner OF vs a DH, and as long as you can craft the contract with some protections tied to however much he pitches, you are giving up a lot less youth to sign Shohei. Shohei is 4 years older, but you get 1 year of value from him whenever he pitches, so as long as he pitches well 4 years of the deal you should get as much value from him as soto over the life of the deal assuming they age similarly.
in either case I would expect 1 of Baty/Vientos/Mauricio to be dealt. Counting on 2 young guys next year will be easier than 3, especially if you are also adding a 3rd MVP level hitter to the lineup.
if you get Shohei you can trade 1 of them in a package for a P so you only need to sign 1 expensive FA SP and you hopefully have ohtani to pitch in 2025.
if you get Soto you are probably trading 1 of them directly along with another big prospect (like Parada or Acuna) along with other pieces in a package and then going out and signing 2 or more SP.
both options are worth investigating but given cohen's spending power i think id just opt for signing shohei.
so my guess is 10x450m with roughly $100m in additional triggers for pitching more innings. healthy i think the bidding would have started at 10x500m and may have increased from there, so i think the injury converts $50m or so of guaranteed $ into non-guaranteed.
the base value of guaranteed$ beats trouts deal which was 12 years x 427m signed at age 27, so it runs through age 38. A 10 year deal with Shohei would run through age 39. Also gives him the highest AAV ever at $45m. judge got 9 years at $40m through age 39, so shohei starts ahead of that too even if he never pitches again.
if it were me Id want the triggers for pitching to be something like another $100m for the last 5 years of the deal if he hits a certain innings total in the first 5 years. or maybe they break it up every 3 years chunks. So if he pitches say 300+ innings in the first 3 years, he gets another $50m in years 4-6, and if he hits 300+ innings in those years he gets another $50m in years 7-10. That would basically mean all he has to do is make 60 starts every 3 years between ages 30-35 to get the full $550m value but the team is protected to some degree if he doesn't come back from TJS. Though he'd be a very expensive DH.
he's a guy it's easy to be happy for. he basically played 12 years in the mets org for very little relative money, making the minimums for 9 of those years.
for several of those years he was pitching with the partially torn ligament probably knowing any of those pitches could have been his last.
probably wasn't set for life until the contract with SD and now gets a chance to make generational money for his family because he bet on himself. would have no issue bringing him back for a quintana type deal or maybe even a little more with a 3rd year knowing worst case scenario you can probably slide him back into the BP.
him vs. quintana last year in terms of negotiating position is interesting.
quintana coming off his age 33 made 32 starts, 4 fwar, 3 era/fip. 165 innings.
lugo coming off his age 33 made 26 starts, 2.8 fwar, 3.5 era, 3.8 fip, 146 innings.
quintana got 2x26m. for lugo id do 3x30m. extra year and a little more guaranteed in return for a lower AAV for less tax and more flexibility if you need to shift him to BP at some point. like say if you also sign Shohei and he needs a rotation slot in 2025. but even if it's not shohei and just replacing quintana, this is a solid rotation for 2024:
Senga
Yamamoto
Quintana
Lugo
Peterson/Megill/Butto/Luchessi competition (with Vasil, Tidwell, et al on the way)
I still really like the idea of Mahle on a 1+ team option deal as he rehabs.
I think I saw he has the highest average FB velo since the ASB was well.
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Since 2022 126 SP's have thrown 190 or more innings... Tarik Skubal is 2nd in FIP... 2nd! Trailing only Spencer Strider. Where have I been? lol
I think I saw he has the highest average FB velo since the ASB was well.
Maybe the FB was graded best something like that but it was surprising.
@AnthonyDiComo
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6m
News: Starling Marte (groin) is done for the year. The Mets are shutting him down.