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Duggan - Why does Giants QB get so much hate?

US1 Giants : 9/29/2023 10:31 am
Quote:
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has seemingly been wearing a “kick me” sign since the moment he entered the NFL.

Jones was booed by fans at the Giants’ 2019 draft party when he was announced as the sixth pick. He was called “trash” by Chicago Bears safety Jaquan Brisker the day he signed a four-year, $160 million extension with the Giants. And in the latest installment of Jones bashing, San Francisco 49ers defenders expressed disbelief about the quarterback’s salary, with one anonymous player calling it a “travesty.”


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RE: ajr  
ajr2456 : 9/29/2023 7:55 pm : link
In comment 16224843 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
As I said, you won’t be posting here when the Giants start winning. Because that’s the type of fan you are.


What type of fan am I, please tell me? Because I was here in 2016. Was here all through last year. I’m pretty sure I spend more money supporting the team than you do. So tell me what type of fan I am?
RE: …  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/29/2023 7:56 pm : link
In comment 16224816 ryanmkeane said:
Quote:
never once have I said “the book is closed, Jones is great.”

You never said the book on DJ is already complete?

How do you walk face first into this shit without realizing that people have the receipts?
RE: RE: RE: Eli  
bradshaw44 : 9/29/2023 7:57 pm : link
In comment 16224273 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16224266 Sean said:


Quote:


In comment 16224259 Toth029 said:


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Got tons of disrespect and still does.

I'm just numb by opposing fans and truthfully how dumb and ignorant many of the players are.


Let's not compare the two. Eli Manning is a 2x Super Bowl winning MVP.



We can’t compare them? Until Eli won he was treated like Jones is and after the second title it only took a year or two for him to be treated like he was in 2006/7 all over again.

I just think it’s the nature of being in NY. Your failures are magnified and your success is barely celebrated. People enjoy failure.


Nailed it. This x 1000.

Eli is still crapped on. He got two small reprieves in hatred, after XLII and XLVI. Outside those short windows after he was back to being trash to average fans. And it definitely has something to do with the market they are in.
I don’t get the excuse making anymore  
BigBlueShock : 9/29/2023 8:02 pm : link
I’ve been down on Jones but haven’t lambasted like others have over the years because I understand he’s been put in horrific situations. But that ship sailed. Jones and his team nickel and dined the Giants for every last cent they could get. I don’t begrudge a player for trying to get every last cent. Careers are short and you have to put yourself first. I get it. But when you do that, the expectation is that you perform to the level that the contract you demanded dictates. I’m sure the Giants would have preferred to pay him much less and build the team around him. But team Jones held out for every last cent. Which again, is fine and I don’t blame them. But with that $40M/per contract the expectation is that we get $40M in production. How about not going out there and getting freakin embarrassed every single time you play a good team in prime time on national television? That would be great. That’s a start. At $40M/per, you’re no longer simply a cog in the wheel. You are THE cog. Earn the damn money you demanded.

Not one single Giants fan should feel bad for the press that Jones is getting. We should all expect more. He convinced the Giants he could be a $40M player. So go fucking do it
...  
christian : 9/29/2023 8:05 pm : link
RE: GD's question around what a quarterback's impact on the poor o-line play might be -- one thing worth exploring is time.

Keep in mind there's only .5 seconds between the quarterbacks with the most and least time in the pocket. All quarterbacks on average only have between 2.2 - 2.7 seconds before things get bad (Jones on his career is ~2.45 which is league average).

And also keep in mind many quarterbacks with low time in pocket are very good, and it's a measure of how quickly they make decisions, not a measure of bad pass protection.

What I've never seen data on is the timing of pressure. Put aside that pressures are a subjective stat and that hitting a QB while he's throwing counts the same as forcing a QB to scramble -- how long the quarterback takes to make a decision certainly should be part of the calculus on if the pass pro is good or bad. And remember this is measured in tenths of a second.

I wonder if you take out the catastrophic plays where the protection completely breaks down immediately, if Jones holds onto the ball a touch longer and invites more pressure and sacks than his more successful and better protected peers.

If Jones was on the low end of the bell curve of pocket time and and on the high end in pressures, I'd be less curious.

But because he's in the middle on pocket time, it makes me curious.
Christian  
ajr2456 : 9/29/2023 8:09 pm : link
That’s a good point. I think there needs to be more advanced data work on pocket time and pressures in order to get a less ambiguous picture of both.
RE: ...  
JT039 : 9/29/2023 8:15 pm : link
In comment 16224855 christian said:
Quote:
RE: GD's question around what a quarterback's impact on the poor o-line play might be -- one thing worth exploring is time.

Keep in mind there's only .5 seconds between the quarterbacks with the most and least time in the pocket. All quarterbacks on average only have between 2.2 - 2.7 seconds before things get bad (Jones on his career is ~2.45 which is league average).

And also keep in mind many quarterbacks with low time in pocket are very good, and it's a measure of how quickly they make decisions, not a measure of bad pass protection.

What I've never seen data on is the timing of pressure. Put aside that pressures are a subjective stat and that hitting a QB while he's throwing counts the same as forcing a QB to scramble -- how long the quarterback takes to make a decision certainly should be part of the calculus on if the pass pro is good or bad. And remember this is measured in tenths of a second.

I wonder if you take out the catastrophic plays where the protection completely breaks down immediately, if Jones holds onto the ball a touch longer and invites more pressure and sacks than his more successful and better protected peers.

If Jones was on the low end of the bell curve of pocket time and and on the high end in pressures, I'd be less curious.

But because he's in the middle on pocket time, it makes me curious.


There’s a lot of good info there but like I said one stat that really stands out is 27 pressures in under 2 seconds. That’s over half his pressures. That’s very alarming and I’m not sure you can say a lot of them are on Jones.
 
ryanmkeane : 9/29/2023 8:22 pm : link
Jones is going to look awesome with a lot of time and not so great with piss poor time. Unless you are the 6-7 QBs in history that this doesn’t apply to, that’s just going to be the case.

Can Jones be awesome with an average to below average OL is the question. Have not seen it yet. Eli did this in 2011 but he also had 2 great receivers in their prime and a defense that got hot. Somewhat of an outlier I guess.

Even the best QBs look average with bad OL play.
A lot of people keeping talking about the awful situation Jones is in  
Sean : 9/29/2023 8:34 pm : link
But, no one talks about the benefit he's had with having patient ownership. Jones is on his 3rd head coach and 2nd GM. He has a record of 23-32 overall and is 3-11 against Philly & Dallas. His numbers certainly don't scream production. Yet, he got a 2nd contract with $83M in guarantees.

I think Jones should feel very fortunate he was drafted by the Giants. Many QB's don't get this long a leash. Yet people talk about how lousy his situation is.
CJ Strouds and Rodgers numbers are  
cosmicj : 9/29/2023 8:44 pm : link
Much better than Jones when the pocket is clean. Jones has also been generating a <7.0 YPA when the OL does its job and he is kept clean, which is not good. That YPA should be much higher.

I know we need more data and Jones has the season to turn this around, but so far he hasn’t been good even when the blocking holds.

Eric - thanks for posting these shots. Really interesting. One qualifier is that the number of rushers used to generate the pressure isn’t listed and we know the Cowboys and 49ers were generating pressure with just 4 or 5 pass rushers.
RE: Again  
Toth029 : 9/29/2023 9:01 pm : link
In comment 16224767 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
They’ve missed on nearly every oline acquisition except one over the last decade. That’s either really bad luck or something else is playing a role.


Pugh stuck around playing another position and being mediocre.
Weston Richburg stuck around and went to SF. Suffered an injury and has been out of the league for a while now.
Ereck Flowers stayed, played worse than Nate Solder and the GM and HC (McAdoo) defended him for eternity. Once an outside guy came in, he was moved off LT and half a season later, traded because the motherfucker was a quitter. Went to the Jags in the trade, let go after. Miami and Washington had him in for a cup of coffee and is now out of the league.
Will Hernandez was supposed to be a top OG prospect but did not improve after a solid rookie year. Now hanging on with a Cardinals team trying to rebuild.

Guys like Neal, Ezeudu, McKethan and Schmitz, we'll see. They seem like hard workers unlike Flowers. The Giants began to fall apart in 2011 because Reese failed to rebuild the line that was striving in 2006-2009. Picking soft guys like Will Beatty and Justin Pugh did no favors. They could have had Ryan Ramczyk in 2017, and Andrew Whitworth, but who needs those guys when you have a near 40 year old QB who doesn't have much mobility and your bookend tackles are Ereck Flowers and Bobby Hart.
RE: I don’t get the excuse making anymore  
bw in dc : 9/29/2023 9:02 pm : link
In comment 16224853 BigBlueShock said:
Quote:


Not one single Giants fan should feel bad for the press that Jones is getting. We should all expect more. He convinced the Giants he could be a $40M player. So go fucking do it


Indeed, we should expect more. However, that should have been the case once Jones was selected 6th.

The great divide on Jones boils largely down to these two views:

A. Jones can only be as good as his supporting cast. Until we get him enough great parts, it's unfair to judge him. But he's probably a special player.

B. Jones can be pretty good player, but he doesn't do enough as the QB that will help the team properly allocate cap resources. So, it's probably a better idea to keep looking for a cheaper alternative in the draft.

RE: RE: I don’t get the excuse making anymore  
JT039 : 9/29/2023 9:08 pm : link
In comment 16224892 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16224853 BigBlueShock said:


Quote:




Not one single Giants fan should feel bad for the press that Jones is getting. We should all expect more. He convinced the Giants he could be a $40M player. So go fucking do it



Indeed, we should expect more. However, that should have been the case once Jones was selected 6th.

The great divide on Jones boils largely down to these two views:

A. Jones can only be as good as his supporting cast. Until we get him enough great parts, it's unfair to judge him. But he's probably a special player.

B. Jones can be pretty good player, but he doesn't do enough as the QB that will help the team properly allocate cap resources. So, it's probably a better idea to keep looking for a cheaper alternative in the draft.


But outside the top 3-4 QBs - you can say that about a lot of QBs. I mean Dak has been on loaded teams, Cousins has had weapons galore, Geno has a great supporting cast, and I mean even look at a guy like Hurts - there’s a ton of QBs who would kill for his situation.

I think there are 3 ELITE QBs in the league who deserve all the money they get. Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. Herbert and Tua are obviously have big years but they need some playoff success to match those 3.

The rest? Interchangeable IMO
RE: RE: RE: I don’t get the excuse making anymore  
Johnny5 : 9/29/2023 9:58 pm : link
In comment 16224894 JT039 said:
Quote:
In comment 16224892 bw in dc said:


Quote:


In comment 16224853 BigBlueShock said:


Quote:




Not one single Giants fan should feel bad for the press that Jones is getting. We should all expect more. He convinced the Giants he could be a $40M player. So go fucking do it



Indeed, we should expect more. However, that should have been the case once Jones was selected 6th.

The great divide on Jones boils largely down to these two views:

A. Jones can only be as good as his supporting cast. Until we get him enough great parts, it's unfair to judge him. But he's probably a special player.

B. Jones can be pretty good player, but he doesn't do enough as the QB that will help the team properly allocate cap resources. So, it's probably a better idea to keep looking for a cheaper alternative in the draft.




But outside the top 3-4 QBs - you can say that about a lot of QBs. I mean Dak has been on loaded teams, Cousins has had weapons galore, Geno has a great supporting cast, and I mean even look at a guy like Hurts - there’s a ton of QBs who would kill for his situation.

I think there are 3 ELITE QBs in the league who deserve all the money they get. Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. Herbert and Tua are obviously have big years but they need some playoff success to match those 3.

The rest? Interchangeable IMO

I agree with this. I do think Allen (WHEN HE IS NOT BEING A HERO) and Herbert are in a 2nd tier just below Burrow and Mahomes. Everyone else you can argue until the paint dries... lol
I  
jtfuoco : 9/29/2023 10:35 pm : link
Think Jones is a good enough QB to be middle of the road but he is never going to take this team to the next level. So at 40+ million a year the organization is better off drafting a QB and keep doing it until they find that elite QB and spend that money to shore up the roster and build a team like SF or Philly in the mean time
RE: I  
Johnny5 : 9/29/2023 10:42 pm : link
In comment 16224918 jtfuoco said:
Quote:
Think Jones is a good enough QB to be middle of the road but he is never going to take this team to the next level. So at 40+ million a year the organization is better off drafting a QB and keep doing it until they find that elite QB and spend that money to shore up the roster and build a team like SF or Philly in the mean time

Meh I disagree. I think with better protection he can do it. But obviously just my opinion.
RE: I  
JT039 : 9/29/2023 10:46 pm : link
In comment 16224918 jtfuoco said:
Quote:
Think Jones is a good enough QB to be middle of the road but he is never going to take this team to the next level. So at 40+ million a year the organization is better off drafting a QB and keep doing it until they find that elite QB and spend that money to shore up the roster and build a team like SF or Philly in the mean time


I still believe that even if he is a bridge QB - he can be effective enough to make others around him better until we find a better option. Just putting a rookie back there can be just as detrimental in the long run.
...  
christian : 9/29/2023 11:14 pm : link
In comment 16224862 JT039 said:
Quote:
But because he's in the middle on pocket time, it makes me curious.

There’s a lot of good info there but like I said one stat that really stands out is 27 pressures in under 2 seconds. That’s over half his pressures. That’s very alarming and I’m not sure you can say a lot of them are on Jones.


I'd be inclined to say any pressure before the league average pocket time isn't the quarterback's fault. And I'd wager 9+ no-fault pressures per game is or close to league worst.

If I were conducting a study professionally I'd bucket into 3 categories:

1) Number of drop backs and average pocket time on no-fault pressures
2) Number of drop backs and average pocket time on QB caused pressures
3) Number of drop backs and pocket time when not pressured

And then how that measures against the league.

I don't have a sense one way or the other, but getting pressured is much like separation. There's an element the QB is responsible for.
RE: RE: RE: I don’t get the excuse making anymore  
bw in dc : 9/29/2023 11:28 pm : link
In comment 16224894 JT039 said:
Quote:
In comment 16224892 bw in dc said:


Indeed, we should expect more. However, that should have been the case once Jones was selected 6th.

The great divide on Jones boils largely down to these two views:

A. Jones can only be as good as his supporting cast. Until we get him enough great parts, it's unfair to judge him. But he's probably a special player.

B. Jones can be pretty good player, but he doesn't do enough as the QB that will help the team properly allocate cap resources. So, it's probably a better idea to keep looking for a cheaper alternative in the draft.




But outside the top 3-4 QBs - you can say that about a lot of QBs. I mean Dak has been on loaded teams, Cousins has had weapons galore, Geno has a great supporting cast, and I mean even look at a guy like Hurts - there’s a ton of QBs who would kill for his situation.

I think there are 3 ELITE QBs in the league who deserve all the money they get. Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. Herbert and Tua are obviously have big years but they need some playoff success to match those 3.

The rest? Interchangeable IMO


I'm really not looking for the "misery loves company" argument. ;)

IMV, if Jones is one of these interchangeable QBs, he's not the solution.

While every organization tries, it is really hard to do what the 49ers have done: build a great team around a QB with slightly above average physical skills. If we have to continue to try to get there with Jones, it's very likely going to fail as a plan.





RE: ...  
Ron Johnson : 9/30/2023 7:00 am : link
In comment 16224927 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16224862 JT039 said:


Quote:


But because he's in the middle on pocket time, it makes me curious.

There’s a lot of good info there but like I said one stat that really stands out is 27 pressures in under 2 seconds. That’s over half his pressures. That’s very alarming and I’m not sure you can say a lot of them are on Jones.



I'd be inclined to say any pressure before the league average pocket time isn't the quarterback's fault. And I'd wager 9+ no-fault pressures per game is or close to league worst.

If I were conducting a study professionally I'd bucket into 3 categories:

1) Number of drop backs and average pocket time on no-fault pressures
2) Number of drop backs and average pocket time on QB caused pressures
3) Number of drop backs and pocket time when not pressured

And then how that measures against the league.

I don't have a sense one way or the other, but getting pressured is much like separation. There's an element the QB is responsible for.


What about “coverage” pressures?
RE: RE: I don’t get the excuse making anymore  
HBart : 9/30/2023 8:27 am : link
In comment 16224892 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16224853 BigBlueShock said:


Quote:




Not one single Giants fan should feel bad for the press that Jones is getting. We should all expect more. He convinced the Giants he could be a $40M player. So go fucking do it



Indeed, we should expect more. However, that should have been the case once Jones was selected 6th.

The great divide on Jones boils largely down to these two views:

A. Jones can only be as good as his supporting cast. Until we get him enough great parts, it's unfair to judge him. But he's probably a special player.

B. Jones can be pretty good player, but he doesn't do enough as the QB that will help the team properly allocate cap resources. So, it's probably a better idea to keep looking for a cheaper alternative in the draft.

This **. Perfect

I've been disappointed in Jones. End of last season I thought he did some great things all considered, even more impressive on tape. Last game was exact opposite. He didn't look good live and worse on tape.

Problem is, going back to A, the conditions have been more adverse than planned for Jones. There's a certain level of OL protection required which he's rarely received, and his playmakers haven't made plays. He's been what he usually is -- big part of the good or bad that turns up on the field. Which is mostly bad so far. He gets an incomplete like most of the team.

RE: RE: ...  
FStubbs : 9/30/2023 9:31 am : link
In comment 16224952 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:
In comment 16224927 christian said:


Quote:


In comment 16224862 JT039 said:


Quote:


But because he's in the middle on pocket time, it makes me curious.

There’s a lot of good info there but like I said one stat that really stands out is 27 pressures in under 2 seconds. That’s over half his pressures. That’s very alarming and I’m not sure you can say a lot of them are on Jones.



I'd be inclined to say any pressure before the league average pocket time isn't the quarterback's fault. And I'd wager 9+ no-fault pressures per game is or close to league worst.

If I were conducting a study professionally I'd bucket into 3 categories:

1) Number of drop backs and average pocket time on no-fault pressures
2) Number of drop backs and average pocket time on QB caused pressures
3) Number of drop backs and pocket time when not pressured

And then how that measures against the league.

I don't have a sense one way or the other, but getting pressured is much like separation. There's an element the QB is responsible for.



What about “coverage” pressures?


Also, are we talking normal pressures or the absolute jailbreaks this offensive line often allows?
...  
christian : 9/30/2023 9:33 am : link
In comment 16224952 Ron Johnson said:
Quote:

I don't have a sense one way or the other, but getting pressured is much like separation. There's an element the QB is responsible for.

What about “coverage” pressures?


I'd put that on the QB, because he can take off or get rid of the ball.
RE: RE: RE: ...  
christian : 9/30/2023 9:45 am : link
In comment 16224984 FStubbs said:
Quote:
I don't have a sense one way or the other, but getting pressured is much like separation. There's an element the QB is responsible for.

What about “coverage” pressures?

Also, are we talking normal pressures or the absolute jailbreaks this offensive line often allows?


That's where I began. If the goal is to understand if the QB has a part in how much he's pressured, you would remove all pressures that occured at or below the average pocket time for the league.
RE: CJ Strouds and Rodgers numbers are  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 10:26 am : link
In comment 16224880 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Much better than Jones when the pocket is clean. Jones has also been generating a <7.0 YPA when the OL does its job and he is kept clean, which is not good. That YPA should be much higher.

I know we need more data and Jones has the season to turn this around, but so far he hasn’t been good even when the blocking holds.

Eric - thanks for posting these shots. Really interesting. One qualifier is that the number of rushers used to generate the pressure isn’t listed and we know the Cowboys and 49ers were generating pressure with just 4 or 5 pass rushers.


1 aspect of pressure i havent seen quantified but would suspect is that the more of it a qb gets the more diminishing returns there are on "clean". the clock is sped up for both qb and playcaller, more guys are being kept in to protect, receivers are running fewer downfield routes. when defenses are generating pressure every other play, the entire offense goes into every play expecting pressure.

my point in this thread was that the way the giants have been pressured this year, which has been significantly more than last year because they lost their LT and played 2 elite pass rushes, would have impacted whoever the qb was - no different than herbert last year when his LT went down. in the dallas game that was definite at 67% pressure, in the arizona game the pressure was normal (30%) and jones put together a great 2nd half, SF was somewhere directly in between which made it a more competitive game even though the defense couldnt get off the field.

here's another anecdotal one to add to the list since herbert is another sacred cow - like all the others his numbers similarly took a big hit under pressure last year, and he was facing almost 25% less pressure last year than the giants have allowed this year. this year he's been kept clean about 20% more often and all of his numbers are better.

also notice teams are blitzing him more but getting less pressure. that goes to what i was saying earlier about the halo effects of having good protection (and the opposite halo effect when you have bad protection).

RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 10:41 am : link
In comment 16224855 christian said:
Quote:
RE: GD's question around what a quarterback's impact on the poor o-line play might be -- one thing worth exploring is time.

Keep in mind there's only .5 seconds between the quarterbacks with the most and least time in the pocket. All quarterbacks on average only have between 2.2 - 2.7 seconds before things get bad (Jones on his career is ~2.45 which is league average).

And also keep in mind many quarterbacks with low time in pocket are very good, and it's a measure of how quickly they make decisions, not a measure of bad pass protection.

What I've never seen data on is the timing of pressure. Put aside that pressures are a subjective stat and that hitting a QB while he's throwing counts the same as forcing a QB to scramble -- how long the quarterback takes to make a decision certainly should be part of the calculus on if the pass pro is good or bad. And remember this is measured in tenths of a second.

I wonder if you take out the catastrophic plays where the protection completely breaks down immediately, if Jones holds onto the ball a touch longer and invites more pressure and sacks than his more successful and better protected peers.

If Jones was on the low end of the bell curve of pocket time and and on the high end in pressures, I'd be less curious.

But because he's in the middle on pocket time, it makes me curious.


looks like you've been paying attention in the time to throw thread as well as this one.

my 2 cents on your questions, as you speculate being in the middle is meaningless on it's own, but id also theorize the definition of middle needs some drilling down and that you probably only want to compare running qbs to other running qbs since they are more likely to extend plays than pocket passers who will probably get the ball out when things break down. jones, lamar, and fields were among the most time to throw last year as examples. here's PFF's leaderboard from last year and you can see scrambles are generally the longest of the inputs so more scrambles = holding the ball longer on average. but in fields/lamar's cases they were also holding the ball longest on pass attempts while jones and allen were tied for the amount of time to get rid of the ball on pass attempts.



this year jones is getting the ball out faster across every metric and i think the most obvious explaination is that he has less time from getting pressured more.

RE: RE: RE: RE: ...  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 10:53 am : link
In comment 16224992 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16224984 FStubbs said:


Quote:


I don't have a sense one way or the other, but getting pressured is much like separation. There's an element the QB is responsible for.

What about “coverage” pressures?

Also, are we talking normal pressures or the absolute jailbreaks this offensive line often allows?



That's where I began. If the goal is to understand if the QB has a part in how much he's pressured, you would remove all pressures that occured at or below the average pocket time for the league.


i dont know of a database with stats on that but i think for running qbs in particular the more you slice/dice the time to throw metric the trickier it gets to evaluate because guys who have the athletic ability to make plays out of nothing like josh allen does, you dont want to coach to get rid of the ball quick. you may be willing to eat a few sacks over the course of the year coaching them to try to evade pressure and not just reflexing get rid of the ball.

you can create minutia out of anything because there's no 1 right way to do everything. thats why teams play all different schemes/styles. the 49ers and dolphins (mcdaniel from sf) being the quickest teams to throw and having the success they've had the last 2 years seems like right now their schemes are doing something right since neither has a great QB.

the big picture here is the giants have allowed an exceptional amount of pressure on their qb so far this year. have you seen enough data to agree that any QB sees less success with more pressure?
sorry for blowing up the thread but here's 1 more new stat from PFF  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 11:01 am : link
i hadn't seen this before but they actually assign pressure responsibility to various players. there are 27 qbs on this list and jones comes in 8th/27 in terms of most pressures assigned to QB and interestingly it's the exact same % as he was responsible for last year.




ironically "magic feet" mahomes was 3rd most last year and responsible for more of his own pressures than jones in either season. as i mentioned re Allen though i wouldnt be surprised if they dont coach it otherwise because he is so adept at hitting big plays when he buys himself extra time. if pressured they probably prefer that he keeps his eyes downfield vs bailing on the play even if it means a few more sacks. same with rodgers/allen.



RT has been a big problem for the Giants both years but notice that increase at RG year over year. I assume that's why mr glowinski is on the bench. nice to see that JMS is already an upgrade though and ezeudu really has done a good job at LT.
last one for the morning - since the thread is about eli too  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 11:14 am : link
here's the 2013 pressure report by assigned blame. this was the giant roster 2 years removed from SB that went 7-9 with an OL of Beatty, Boothe, Cordle (after Baas got hurt), Diehl, Pugh (rookie). this was the first year without chris snee starting 16 games and the last year of kevin gillbride.

eli was the 3rd most pressured QB in the NFL but one of the least responsible for his own pressure. cruz and nicks started 12 and 15 games respectively this season. this would probably be exhibit A of a wasted prime year for Eli by poor OL.



eye balling some years in between the mcadoo offense did help reduce the number of pressures allowed even as the OL didn't necessarily improve. the pressures jumped back up in the years since with shurmur, judge, and dabs.

bottomline with the organization is that in these 10 years since snee retired they havent been able to rebuild the OL correctly. they have put a decent amount of resources into it in aggregate but nobody has gotten it right. and the guys in any org who get the most credit/blame for everything have gotten blame.
 
christian : 9/30/2023 11:20 am : link
Eric, I'll spend some time reading through all of the above, but can you share more detail on what the definition of "allowed pressure" is?

That might be exactly what I'm curious about.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 11:31 am : link
In comment 16225051 christian said:
Quote:
Eric, I'll spend some time reading through all of the above, but can you share more detail on what the definition of "allowed pressure" is?

That might be exactly what I'm curious about.


i think it's just a pressure - they call the report "allowed pressure" and the APDB column is defined in their key as "APDB: The number of Dropbacks when under pressure". There is a delta in the APDB and total pressures, so my guess is maybe that is free blitzers where nobody is responsible for having allowed it?

pretty sure Jones' 16.7% responsibility rate is the 8 pressures they assign to him divided by the 48 total.


So it looks like  
JT039 : 9/30/2023 11:37 am : link
Through 4 games we will have 4 different starting offensive lines.

Fucking wonderful.
good QBs throw TDs  
The Jake : 9/30/2023 11:38 am : link
bad QBs need excuses made for them as to why they don’t throw TDs.


Thanks Eric  
dancing blue bear : 9/30/2023 11:39 am : link
thoughtful and insightful contribution, per usual
Sounds simple but this is why  
dpinzow : 9/30/2023 12:15 pm : link
Whenever a team loses the QB is always singled out for not doing more as the most important player on the team. Sometimes it is fair, sometimes it isn't but that's just how it goes
 
christian : 9/30/2023 12:18 pm : link
Eric, I think the *concept* of allowed pressure is exactly what Gatorade Dunk and I are getting at (even if this PFF metric doesn't exactly capture it).

To be crystal clear, I haven't studied the data on Jones, so I'm not positing an opinion or conclusion.

My view is simply: if the rate of pressure is a strong factor in why the offense hasn't performed, understanding all of the reasons for it is important. And logically there are times where the quarterback is to blame.

*If* Jones is to blame for a big percentage, that sheds new light for me.

Said in another way (again), Jones is either galactically unlucky or is part of the problem when it comes to the pressure he faces.
RE: RE: CJ Strouds and Rodgers numbers are  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/30/2023 12:32 pm : link
In comment 16225023 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
1 aspect of pressure i havent seen quantified but would suspect is that the more of it a qb gets the more diminishing returns there are on "clean". the clock is sped up for both qb and playcaller, more guys are being kept in to protect, receivers are running fewer downfield routes. when defenses are generating pressure every other play, the entire offense goes into every play expecting pressure.

This is a great point, and despite the challenge in validation, I suspect we can intuitively assume it to be true.

It does, IMO, beg the question of whether certain QBs (and/or playcallers) experience those diminishing returns on clean pockets more quickly (i.e., it takes fewer pressured reps to speed up the QB's clock) than others, and whether they experience those diminishing returns more dramatically (i.e., the QB's clock speeds up to a greater degree) than others.

This strikes me as the sort of response spectrum we might see from any set of people in any setting - for example, if 100 different people were all driving the same route and all got stuck in the same traffic, the time that it would take for those people to either reroute, experience road rage, or turn around and go home, or any other response, would vary from one person to the next.

So we can accept that the traffic is outside of their control, but only some of the group will respond by rerouting to their destination, while others will respond in ways that do not help them reach their destination. And even among the rerouting subset, there will be a range of different amounts of time that must lapse before considering a new route, which will impact what alternative routes are available to them.
That sure feels like an opinion  
dancing blue bear : 9/30/2023 12:32 pm : link
or conclusion.
RE: …  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 12:42 pm : link
In comment 16225121 christian said:
Quote:
Eric, I think the *concept* of allowed pressure is exactly what Gatorade Dunk and I are getting at (even if this PFF metric doesn't exactly capture it).

To be crystal clear, I haven't studied the data on Jones, so I'm not positing an opinion or conclusion.

My view is simply: if the rate of pressure is a strong factor in why the offense hasn't performed, understanding all of the reasons for it is important. And logically there are times where the quarterback is to blame.

*If* Jones is to blame for a big percentage, that sheds new light for me.

Said in another way (again), Jones is either galactically unlucky or is part of the problem when it comes to the pressure he faces.


except the numbers dont bare that out so either you can trust the numbers or keep searching for ways to poke holes in the obvious that the OL has been one of the worst through 3 weeks.

just as it's been in aggregate over the last decade.

not unrelated in the last week nextgen announced rolling out a new stat to model pressure probabilities that will actually factor in all of the inputs you've described. i havent seen the database published yet but i'd wager a lot that this metric will not be kind to the nyg OL and micah parsons/javon hargrave will have charts against the giants that look an awful lot like this graphic of parsons sacking zach wilson much quicker than would typically be expected.





without seeing the machine learned nextgen stats im pretty sure simple math makes my wager a lock because in the aggregate the giants have allowed more pressures than the average rates of the players/teams they've played against. so during individual plays, they had more of them where the players like Parsons performed above their pre-snap rush probabilities than below. if that were because of exceptionally bad QB decisions jones would be more of an outlier in the sacks attributed to him and time to throw.
Next Gen Stats: Introduction to pressure probability - ( New Window )
RE: That sure feels like an opinion  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/30/2023 12:50 pm : link
In comment 16225138 dancing blue bear said:
Quote:
or conclusion.

That sure feels like a uselessly vague post.
RE: RE: RE: CJ Strouds and Rodgers numbers are  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 12:51 pm : link
In comment 16225137 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 16225023 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


1 aspect of pressure i havent seen quantified but would suspect is that the more of it a qb gets the more diminishing returns there are on "clean". the clock is sped up for both qb and playcaller, more guys are being kept in to protect, receivers are running fewer downfield routes. when defenses are generating pressure every other play, the entire offense goes into every play expecting pressure.


This is a great point, and despite the challenge in validation, I suspect we can intuitively assume it to be true.

It does, IMO, beg the question of whether certain QBs (and/or playcallers) experience those diminishing returns on clean pockets more quickly (i.e., it takes fewer pressured reps to speed up the QB's clock) than others, and whether they experience those diminishing returns more dramatically (i.e., the QB's clock speeds up to a greater degree) than others.

This strikes me as the sort of response spectrum we might see from any set of people in any setting - for example, if 100 different people were all driving the same route and all got stuck in the same traffic, the time that it would take for those people to either reroute, experience road rage, or turn around and go home, or any other response, would vary from one person to the next.

So we can accept that the traffic is outside of their control, but only some of the group will respond by rerouting to their destination, while others will respond in ways that do not help them reach their destination. And even among the rerouting subset, there will be a range of different amounts of time that must lapse before considering a new route, which will impact what alternative routes are available to them.


mostly agree with this. as i drill down on more new stats the more i see little signatures with different players. which makes sense because everyone's brain processes things differently especially when we are talking about instinctual split second judgements. there's a reason why there are only 10-15 quality NFL QBs on the planet at any given point in time and all of them are good/bad at different things.

when we look at other players of teams we aren't as emotionally invested in it is easier. here's an example with russell wilson, who may be the only qb in the nfl getting as much hate as a nyg qb without being one. he's been under pressure almost as much as jones this year and his numbers under pressure are probably the best i've seen. his y/a are actually higher under pressure and he's thrown 2 more passes under pressure than not. the broncos have been awful this year but not because of russ (and not unlike eli he didnt get to 2 sbs by accident).

I’ll try to stay out of your lane  
dancing blue bear : 9/30/2023 12:52 pm : link
.
There are 5 linemen and 1 QB  
Gatorade Dunk : 9/30/2023 12:56 pm : link
And the numbers show that DJ is responsible for 1/6 of the pressures, on balance. So by those numbers, doesn’t that suggest that DJ is just as responsible for his own pressures as any individual lineman is? If evenly distributed, all 6 should have equal 16.7 rates. That's exactly where DJ's rate resides, right? So what am I missing?
Wow this Russell Wilson table  
cosmicj : 9/30/2023 1:04 pm : link
Sure casts a different light on his troubles.

Eric, I think you’re building to a really big set of blog posts. I’ll make sure to get plenty of rest the night before I read them.
RE: good QBs throw TDs  
bw in dc : 9/30/2023 1:07 pm : link
In comment 16225071 The Jake said:
Quote:
bad QBs need excuses made for them as to why they don’t throw TDs.



I certainly don't think Jones is any special talent as a thrower. But what we are seeing - again - is that he needs his environment to be very clean or else he simply can't produce anything.

I don't think Jones is playing well, but it doesn't take a deep dive into Eric's #s to confirm the OL isn't functioning well either. The eye test should satisfy most of that discussion.

What I have always wondered about Jones is his ability to get out of a play and into a better play based on coverage. A really good QB - like Peyton Manning was a savant - has the ability to dictate what the offense is going to do to offset a coverage. My instincts tell me Jones is an amateur in that phase of the game.
RE: There are 5 linemen and 1 QB  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 1:08 pm : link
In comment 16225164 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
And the numbers show that DJ is responsible for 1/6 of the pressures, on balance. So by those numbers, doesn’t that suggest that DJ is just as responsible for his own pressures as any individual lineman is? If evenly distributed, all 6 should have equal 16.7 rates. That's exactly where DJ's rate resides, right? So what am I missing?


you are using the stat in the wrong way. look at the 2022 full year numbers in my 11:01 post and patrick mahomes was at 21% - which was essentially tied with his LT and RT for most pressures. 5% higher than jones' 16% last year and this year. mahomes was pressured 241 times last year, jones 242, 3rd and 4th most respectively so this is a pretty apples/apples comparison over a full year sample size (though mahomes played 2 more games).

and patrick mahomes was responsible for a lot more of his pressures than daniel jones.

do you think that's because patrick mahomes had "worse" pocket presence than daniel jones and 3rd worst in the nfl among starting qbs by responsibility%?

or do you think that's more likely related to his play style of being very good at and very willing to extend plays? this is the point i just agreed with you on in your prior post that every qb has a slightly different 'signature' on how they play and a lot of these stats get easily misrepresented (like the time to throw post earlier this week that misunderstood more time = better and less time = worse).
RE: Wow this Russell Wilson table  
Eric on Li : 9/30/2023 1:11 pm : link
In comment 16225172 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Sure casts a different light on his troubles.

Eric, I think you’re building to a really big set of blog posts. I’ll make sure to get plenty of rest the night before I read them.


that's a good idea - i did a post on the nyg after 3 weeks, at whatever the next interval is that's worth doing another one hopefully the defense and OL have turned things around to enough of an extent that comparing pressure percentages in wins/losses isn't as morbidly depressing as it is so far.
...  
christian : 9/30/2023 1:22 pm : link
Eric, I'm not limiting the discussion to 2023.

I'm posing a broader question if Jones over his career has contributed an outsized percentage of pressure he's faced.

Can you pull down the percentage of pressures he's caused for his career?
RE: Wow this Russell Wilson table  
bw in dc : 9/30/2023 1:23 pm : link
In comment 16225172 cosmicj said:
Quote:
Sure casts a different light on his troubles.

Eric, I think you’re building to a really big set of blog posts. I’ll make sure to get plenty of rest the night before I read them.


Payton has done good work with Wilson. A big difference is not only the scheme, but Payton can build OLs, and he looks to have done some good work in that regard (so far).

Getting McGlinchey and Powers seem like good, smart signings.
RE: RE: RE: CJ Strouds and Rodgers numbers are  
The Mike : 9/30/2023 1:29 pm : link
In comment 16225137 Gatorade Dunk said:
Quote:
In comment 16225023 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


1 aspect of pressure i havent seen quantified but would suspect is that the more of it a qb gets the more diminishing returns there are on "clean". the clock is sped up for both qb and playcaller, more guys are being kept in to protect, receivers are running fewer downfield routes. when defenses are generating pressure every other play, the entire offense goes into every play expecting pressure.


This is a great point, and despite the challenge in validation, I suspect we can intuitively assume it to be true.

It does, IMO, beg the question of whether certain QBs (and/or playcallers) experience those diminishing returns on clean pockets more quickly (i.e., it takes fewer pressured reps to speed up the QB's clock) than others, and whether they experience those diminishing returns more dramatically (i.e., the QB's clock speeds up to a greater degree) than others.

This strikes me as the sort of response spectrum we might see from any set of people in any setting - for example, if 100 different people were all driving the same route and all got stuck in the same traffic, the time that it would take for those people to either reroute, experience road rage, or turn around and go home, or any other response, would vary from one person to the next.

So we can accept that the traffic is outside of their control, but only some of the group will respond by rerouting to their destination, while others will respond in ways that do not help them reach their destination. And even among the rerouting subset, there will be a range of different amounts of time that must lapse before considering a new route, which will impact what alternative routes are available to them.


Sage wisdom. No team has been more stuck in traffic than this team over the past decade. Might have been nice if the Giants considered this wisdom six months ago before committing nearly twenty percent of the cap to a driver who has difficulty discerning traffic, let alone effectively rerouting from it.

Better still, had the Giants considered this in April 2019, perhaps we could have avoided a six year franchise crushing car wreck that has cost a GM and two head coaches their jobs. There's a light at the end of the tunnel though coming Monday night. Hopefully our grossly overpaid driver's gps is working for once so as to avoid a season ending head on train collision.
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