Duggan - Why does Giants QB get so much hate?

In comment 16225184 christian said:

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Eric, I'm not limiting the discussion to 2023. I'm posing a broader question if Jones over his career has contributed an outsized percentage of pressure he's faced. Can you pull down the percentage of pressures he's caused for his career?

i dont think they have a career number but all the numbers under this regime are in this thread.

my guess from eyeballing eli's career earlier today is each different system the numbers are going to be different but ill go double check. if you read my posts to GD, i think a lot of these numbers are a function of play style impacted by the full environment - player style, scheme, supporting cast. running QBs tend to create more pressures than pocket qbs which makes sense since they are trying to extend plays more. obviously a worse ol is going to create more pressures than a better one.

In comment 16225175 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 16225164 Gatorade Dunk said: Quote: And the numbers show that DJ is responsible for 1/6 of the pressures, on balance. So by those numbers, doesn’t that suggest that DJ is just as responsible for his own pressures as any individual lineman is? If evenly distributed, all 6 should have equal 16.7 rates. That's exactly where DJ's rate resides, right? So what am I missing? you are using the stat in the wrong way. look at the 2022 full year numbers in my 11:01 post and patrick mahomes was at 21% - which was essentially tied with his LT and RT for most pressures. 5% higher than jones' 16% last year and this year. mahomes was pressured 241 times last year, jones 242, 3rd and 4th most respectively so this is a pretty apples/apples comparison over a full year sample size (though mahomes played 2 more games). and patrick mahomes was responsible for a lot more of his pressures than daniel jones. do you think that's because patrick mahomes had "worse" pocket presence than daniel jones and 3rd worst in the nfl among starting qbs by responsibility%? or do you think that's more likely related to his play style of being very good at and very willing to extend plays? this is the point i just agreed with you on in your prior post that every qb has a slightly different 'signature' on how they play and a lot of these stats get easily misrepresented (like the time to throw post earlier this week that misunderstood more time = better and less time = worse).

Good point. I'm just trying to understand the proper baseline for distribution. I also recognize that the greater priority is reducing the counting stat (aggregate pressures) rather than optimizing the distribution rate.

I guess I'm just saying that I don't necessarily see DJ's owned pressure rate as validation that he bears no (or less) responsibility for allowing pressure to occur. And to the extent that his share of the distribution is tied to the Giants' relatively high pressure rate as a team, would that suggest that even if the Giants' OL was perfectly average across all OL metrics, that DJ's style of play (or processing speed, or play design, whatever) would still result in a higher than average pressure rate as a team?

What I mean by that is, if DJ has been pressured 48 times so far, and 16.7% are attributable directly to him, then those 8 pressures might have happened regardless of the OL. If the OL were to cut their 40 pressures in half, then doesn’t that imply that DJ would own 28.5% of the reduced aggregate pressures?

Said another way, is DJ's owned pressure rate depressed somewhat by the largeness of the denominator rather than the smallness of the numerator? This is probably also an area where your diminishing returns theory above would apply as well, to be fair.

And point taken on Mahomes, but no one seems to be claiming that he possesses some latent excellence that is otherwise being withheld by defensive pressure. If DJ had a couple of Lombardis and was the reigning SB MVP, we probably aren't engaging in this discussion ourselves, right?

I guess that makes me oddly grateful for the struggles if only to give us a reason to have a really good discussion.

the hypothesis ends up being exactly opposite the speculation.

here are his pressure responsibility %'s by year:

2023 - 16.7% (team worst 31% RG, Glowinski/Mckethan)
2022 - 16.7% (team worst 26% RT, Neal)
2021 - 8.5% (team worst 25% LG, Skura)
2020 - 9.4% (team worst 31% LT, Thomas)
2019 - 16.1% (team worst 28% LT, Solder)

in the judge regime jones was responsible for half as many pressures as he has been with this regime - which i would speculate are because of the judge offenses being so risk averse. jones ran less, extended plays less, threw the ball away quickly more.

under shurmur and daboll he has been responsible for more of his pressures, but also obviously made a lot more plays.

in each year he was among the most pressured QBs per game.

In comment 16225194 Gatorade Dunk said:

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Good point. I'm just trying to understand the proper baseline for distribution. I also recognize that the greater priority is reducing the counting stat (aggregate pressures) rather than optimizing the distribution rate.

my belief on the best baselines would be to look at players who play the most similar styles and then layer context with their situations. i.e. let's compare jones to the subset of other qbs who run as much as him which are:

fields
lamar
hurts
allen

fields has been pressured 45 times so not far behind jones but held the ball longer, and owns 22% of his pressures. this year he is probably the closest thing to a poster child of making a bad situation worse.

hurts has also struggled more this year than last - he has 33 pressures and he owns 27% of them. his highest OL is 21%. last year he was 26%. so hurts is kind of what you are describing in a QB who has a better OL and then gets hurt by owning more pressures because there's a smaller denominator even though he's "causing" probably a similar number of pressures as Jones is, just out of a smaller total pie of pressures.

lamar has only been pressured 22 times, and he is only responsible for 5% of them. a very high % of his pressures have turned into sacks (8). last year he was reponsible for 33% of his pressues. i havent watched much of baltimore this year but i suspect he is playing a lot less hero ball and there's some noise since they have a new OC. his comp% is +10% but also only 4 total tds in 3 games.

the player jones is most similar to is allen, which shouldnt be a big surprise since their offenses are the most similar. allen is responsible for 18% of his pressures this year and was 18% last year. this year he hasnt been pressured a ton but last year he was 4th most (jones was 5th most).

i dont draw a ton of conclusions re jones except that there's nothing about him that's an outlier - except that this year he's been pressured at a meaningfully higher rate.

Fucking Outstanding discussion gents.

Maybe because he still sucks, always has that dopey ass look on his face and he makes $40 million a year.

In comment 16229337 Sean said:

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Quote: Warren Sharp @SharpFootball Daniel Jones 2023 ranks: #30 in EPA/att (-0.24) #30 in YPA (6.0) #28 in pass success rate (38%) #32 in TD rate (1.8%) #33 in TD:INT ratio (2:4) #31 in explosive pass rate (11%) . . . #3 in 2023 cash ($46,000,000)

All his fault. With this surrounding cast he should be putting up MVP numbers.

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