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NFT: Mets vs Phillies: Gm 3 – Butto (R) vs Strahm (R)- 3:10 pm ET

Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 2:45 pm

Starting Lineups for both clubs today.
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Probable Starting Pitcher Matchups for the series finale against the Phils in Flushing today.
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#LFGM!
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Notes:
-Buck’s not coming back as the Mets’ manager next year (see tweet HERE). Not surprising that he’s not gonna back. Good to see the Mets get out in front of this though.
-This game is on SNY, and if necessary, so will tomorrow’s suspended game (it’d start 1:10 pm ET at Citi Field). All games throughout MLB will start at the same time today.
-The weather is fine & dandy for this one. Click HERE to see the Hourly AccuWeather Report for Citi Field today. If necessary, the weather tomorrow at Citi Field is also expected to be excellent.

-Mauricio has 97 at-bats with the big club this season going into today and maybe tomorrow, which is 33 at-bats shy of the 130 at-bat threshold required to keep him eligible for next season's ROY award, thereby potentially helping the Mets with the PPI (Prospect Promotion Incentive). Click HERE to see his baseball reference page. He’s got a BA of .247 & an OPS of .649. It would have been nice to have seen him in LF. Odd that we didn’t at all this entire past month.
-The Mets finished September with a W-L record of 13-13, not counting the suspended game from three days ago.
-The Mets are 74-86 and are in 4th place in the NL East with 2 games to go counting tomorrow’s possible make-up. MLB still hasn’t said if it needs to made up or not.

-Click HERE to see the divisional standings throughout MLB. The Marlins and the D-backs are the two only undecided seedings in the NL Playoffs. Click HERE to see the updated playoff picture in the NL. The 12 MLB playoff teams are depicted below with the Rangers, Blue Jays, & Astros still jockeying for the 2nd, 5th, and 6th seeds.

-The Mets have the 8th worst record in MLB; four and a half games separate them from the Cardinals & Nationals, who are tied for the 5th & 6th worst records in MLB. The Nats have the 5th worst record.
-The Mets will finish this season with anywhere between the 8th through 10th worst record in MLB depending on the results of today’s games and possibly tomorrow.

-The Nats can’t pick in the top 10 of the MLB Draft though, so the Mets have that going for them at least if things remain as they are.
-Click HERE to take a look at Tankathon's 2024 MLB Draft Lottery Simulator.
-The optimal situation for today in which the Mets keep the highest possible lottery odds and don’t play tomorrow is as follows:
(1) The Mets lose this game,
(2) the Pirates beat the Marlins in Pittsburgh, &
(3) the D-backs lose to the Astros in Arizona. Root for the Guardians to win in Detroit though if the Mets win.


-These three scenarios would eliminate the need for a game to be played on Monday for both seeding purposes---5 and 6 seeds---in the NL Wildcard race as well as for lottery odds. The 5 seed would go to Miami on a tiebreaker.

-The suspended Mets-Marlins game from Thursday night would receive a decision one way or the other that would not impact the playoffs and lottery odds would not be affected.
-The Mets would have the 8th worst record in MLB clinched—worse than the Pirates and Guardians. The Nats already clinched a worse record than the Mets, but can't pick in the top 10.
-The Mets' 5-man bench today will consist of Narváez (L), Guillorme (L), Perez (L), Vogelbach (L), & Mendick (R).
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Here are links to today's game:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 3:02 pm : link
*Courtesy of jm.freestreams-live1.tv & sportsurge.net*

Mets vs. Phillies | 3:10 pm EDT start - October 1, 2023 - TV Broadcast: Mets' feed - SNY: Gary, Keith, & Ron (strfi5h.blogspot.com)

Mets vs. Phillies | 3:10 pm EDT start - October 1, 2023 - TV Broadcast: Phillies' feed - NBCSP (strfi5h.blogspot.com)

MLB.com - Gameday: Pitch by Pitch – Mets vs. Phillies - October 1, 2023 - 3:10 pm EDT start


Enjoy today's game 😊
Thanks Optimus, as always!  
dannysection 313 : 10/1/2023 3:16 pm : link
Your game threads have made the season so much more enjoyable than it would have been otherwise...at the very least, the threads gave me others to commiserate with during what can only be described as a dreadful season.
RE: Thanks Optimus, as always!  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 3:24 pm : link
In comment 16226009 dannysection 313 said:
Quote:
Your game threads have made the season so much more enjoyable than it would have been otherwise...at the very least, the threads gave me others to commiserate with during what can only be described as a dreadful season.


No doubt man! We'll have a lot of fun during the off-season too no doubt. Lots to look forward to :-)
Here's the current playoff picture:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 4:06 pm : link
The Marlins can clinch the #5 seed today with a win or a D-backs loss.

many thanks again optimus  
Eric on Li : 10/1/2023 4:19 pm : link
the true tank commander.

RE: Here's the current playoff picture:  
pjcas18 : 10/1/2023 4:23 pm : link
In comment 16226130 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
The Marlins can clinch the #5 seed today with a win or a D-backs loss.



Orioles and Rangers as the 1 and 2 seeds. Not sure many people had that combo coming out of the AL.
Stros are up 6-0 in the 5th in Arizona.  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 4:31 pm : link
Marlins and Pirates are scoreless in the 6th inning in Pittsburgh.

If things remain as they, then the Marlins will be locked in to the 5 seed, thereby rendering the resumption of the suspended Marlins game tomorrow moot for playoffs purposes.
Butto's thrown 99 pitches in 6 innings.  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 4:34 pm : link
Guessing he's done now. Might as well give Reyes, who was up in the pen, the rest of the game. Let's see how they start the top of the 7th.
Good news for the tank:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 5:22 pm : link
Mets are losing
Pirates are winning 3-0 in the 9th in Pitt against the Fish
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The D-backs are losing 8-0 in the 7th to the Stros.
thanks Op, way to  
Rory : 10/1/2023 5:37 pm : link
get all the Yankee fans pissy and moany for continuing to make game threads. I found that hilariously entertaining.

Haven't posted much, but been watching/lurking on an off to close out the season.

Here's to 2024 and me not having to retire my Alonso jersey after next year.

#MattHarvey
#NoahSyndergard
#MichaelConforto
#SethLugo

-r
The tank is in full effect!  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 5:38 pm : link


The Mets are about to lose, the D-backs are about to lose, and the Pirates won against the Marlins.

This all means that there won't be a need to complete the suspended game from three nights ago against the Marlins tomorrow for playoff seeding purposes. It also means that the optimal tanking situation for today will have occurred with the Pirates winning and the Mets losing. MLB will most likely credit the Mets with a win for that game three nights ago without it having any effect on the Mets' draft lottery odds.
Great day today for Butto. Here's his final pitching line this game:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 5:43 pm : link
99 pitches, 64 strikes
6 IP
5 H
2 R
2 ER
2 BB
4 K
1 HR
3.64 ERA

25 batters faced
3 groundouts, 3 flyouts
1 DP
1 SB
Put it in the books...  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 5:58 pm : link

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Gameday Game Wrap - MLB.com
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Game Story - MLB.com
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The Tank Commander of the Game Award for this final game of 2023 goes to....


Denyi Reyes! (honorable mention to Anthony Kay)
No reason to have a game tomorrow now.  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 6:06 pm : link
Neither for playoff seeding purposes nor tanking purposes.

The Marlins lost to the Pirates, The D-backs lost to the Astros, and the Mets lost to the Phils.

The Marlins have the 5 seed by virtue of the D-backs losing and the rest of the NL playoffs seedings are also static.

As far as the Mets' draft lottery odds are concerned, the were concerned with the Pirates and Guardians. By virtue of their loss today to the Phils, the Mets didn't need to worry about the Guardians having to win, which they didn't in Detroit today anyway---the Tigers won that 5-2. The other team that the Mets needed to watch out for was the Pirates. The Mets needed to do their part in losing and needed the Pirates to win at home against the Marlins, which they did by a score of 3-0.

MLB will most likely credit the Mets with a victory in their suspended game three nights ago against the Fish in the rain in Flushing. Just waiting for official word to come down from MLB now in the next few hours or so.

In summary, everything the Mets needed to happen to get the highest draft lottery odds possible out of today happened as well as having to not finish playing tomorrow at home against the Marlins.
Buck's final postgame presser is on the telly now:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 6:24 pm : link


-Buck mentioned Alvarez being all dinged up. Not sure why he played at all today with Perez on the team, but that's neither here nor there.
-He said that Eppler spoke to him in Buck's office last night to tell him the news.
-He's empathetic with the players saying they have a lot going on in their lives.
There's no reporting on this, but I wish there was:  
81_Great_Dane : 10/1/2023 7:24 pm : link
Lindor's season turned around almost immediately upon his wife giving birth to their baby. I think the splits would show he was very bad before that date, and tremendous afterward. Can't help but wonder if his wife was having a difficult pregnancy and he was distracted, or something like that. It seems unlikely to be a coincidence.
RE: thanks Op, way to  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 7:29 pm : link
In comment 16226276 Rory said:
Quote:
get all the Yankee fans pissy and moany for continuing to make game threads. I found that hilariously entertaining.

Haven't posted much, but been watching/lurking on an off to close out the season.

Here's to 2024 and me not having to retire my Alonso jersey after next year.

#MattHarvey
#NoahSyndergard
#MichaelConforto
#SethLugo

-r


Me too, lol. How odd was that? Like, pay attention to your own team instead of thinking there's some sort of competition between Mets fans threads and Yankees fans threads. Makes no sense. Both teams stink. Just follow your team and mind your biz. We are a dedicated group of fans because we've seen a lot of suffering. In any case, here's to a merciful end to a long and agonizing year.



P.S. That Bart Simpson tank gif was for you Rory! :-)

The seedings for the 12 playoff teams are now set:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 8:05 pm : link



mlb.com - Postseason bracket - Updated - ( New Window )
Thank you, Optimus for the year-long effort.  
BigBlueNH : 10/1/2023 8:18 pm : link
Look forward to somehow lucking into a top 6 pick, and the off-season discussion. My 57th season following this team didn't go like I wanted, but like my Dad's Brooklyn Dodgers used to say, "Wait til next year!"
No confirmation yet from MLB about the suspended Marlins game.  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 9:24 pm : link
We all know it ain't going down, but the fact that they're so slow to even confirm it is extra strange. Anyone hear anything yet?
Be sure to check out the Minor League Discussion thread.  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 9:27 pm : link
Linked below from about 6 weeks ago...


NFT: Mets Minor League Discussion | GF1080 | 8/16/2023 | 12:02 pm - ( New Window )
RE: Thank you, Optimus for the year-long effort.  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 9:33 pm : link
In comment 16226487 BigBlueNH said:
Quote:
Look forward to somehow lucking into a top 6 pick, and the off-season discussion. My 57th season following this team didn't go like I wanted, but like my Dad's Brooklyn Dodgers used to say, "Wait til next year!"


It's more about the overall draft pool money than it is the high pick like Dan mentioned to us. I'll probably start a mid-week thread (at some point hopefully on Wednesday since Tuesday will be a Giants de-tox day for the board I'm sure) to ask everyone how we should go about organizing our threads this off-season. One of us will start a thread for the David Stearns press conference at noon ET tomorrow too I'm sure.
RE: No confirmation yet from MLB about the suspended Marlins game.  
GF1080 : 10/1/2023 9:50 pm : link
In comment 16226591 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
We all know it ain't going down, but the fact that they're so slow to even confirm it is extra strange. Anyone hear anything yet?


Believe they said no game but trying to determine if Mets win or lose I thought I saw. All stats will count.
The Draft lottery will be sometime during the Winter Meetings  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 10:05 pm : link
if we look to last year as to when it was conducted (early December of 2022). The Mets finished the season with the 8th worst record in MLB. That also takes into consideration the suspended game vs. the Marlins (it ultimately doesn't matter if they leave it as it is or credit the Mets with a win or a loss). Take a look the snapshots below:



Tankathon.com 2024 MLB Draft Lottery Simulator
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Tankathon.com 2024 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

The Nats can't pick in the Top 10. Take a look at the article below:

EMBRACING THE TANK: A LOOK AT THE METS’ 2024 DRAFT SITUATION - Posted by Patrick Glynn | Aug 8, 2023 | MetsMerizedOnline.com

I need to figure out how this works for the Mets. Give Christopher Soto a tweet @SotoC803 for more info.
Lottery  
GF1080 : 10/1/2023 10:16 pm : link
When is the lottery? I remember watching it last year but not sure when that was.
think mets odds are 42% + nats odds redistributed (12% / 6 = +2%?)  
Eric on Li : 10/1/2023 10:21 pm : link
so basically a coin flip they get top 6. 11% worse odds than angels.
RE: Lottery  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 10:21 pm : link
In comment 16226681 GF1080 said:
Quote:
When is the lottery? I remember watching it last year but not sure when that was.


I read on Christopher Soto's Twitter feed that this year it's on December 5th in Nashville during the Winter Meetings. Last year it was in early December as well.
RE: RE: Lottery  
GF1080 : 10/1/2023 10:35 pm : link
In comment 16226692 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16226681 GF1080 said:


Quote:


When is the lottery? I remember watching it last year but not sure when that was.



I read on Christopher Soto's Twitter feed that this year it's on December 5th in Nashville during the Winter Meetings. Last year it was in early December as well.


Makes sense.
Here's a tweet from Christopher Soto @SotoC803:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 10:43 pm : link
Christopher calculated that the Mets' odds for a lottery pick (top 6) are at 35.7%--that includes the Nats' odds allocation.




Tweet - Christopher Soto @SotoC803 - 8:11 PM · Oct 1, 2023 - ( New Window )
The snapshot below is from the article from MMO linked above:  
Optimus-NY : 10/1/2023 11:07 pm : link


The Mets finished with the 8th worst overall record in MLB. Add the Nats' allocated odds to the odds for the 8th worst record:

3.8 + 31.9 = 35.7%

I'm still trying to figure out how Christopher got 3.8 for the Nats' allocated odds.
Thanks Optimus for for you steadfast, yeoman work with the threads  
BocaGene : 10/2/2023 1:45 am : link
BTW, in my comment yesterday re: AFL, I typoed Alfonso. I was referring to Pete Alfonso, not Edwardo A.

Hey, it late and the Jamison is typing for me!
Thanks for doing all this Optimus!  
X : 10/2/2023 9:24 am : link
I have a question and you may have already answered but is #10 the lowest the Mets can pick in the draft?

I ran the sim numerous times and it had the Mets picking anywhere from 1 -10.
RE: Thanks for doing all this Optimus!  
Optimus-NY : 10/2/2023 9:45 am : link
In comment 16226974 X said:
Quote:
I have a question and you may have already answered but is #10 the lowest the Mets can pick in the draft?

I ran the sim numerous times and it had the Mets picking anywhere from 1 -10.


No. As a result of the Mets being luxury tax offenders, they are to be penalized in the draft by having their 1st round selection dropped by ten picks, like happened this year when they were originally supposed to ick 22nd, but picked 32nd as a result of their luxury tax status. The same will apply this year UNLESS they pick in the Top 6. Basically the Mets' 2024 1st round pick can only be either 1 through 6 or 18 through 30. They can NOT pick 7th through 16th.

The real issue isn't necessarily about the draft pick itself though. It's the draft pool money. DanMetroMan explained this before in past threads to the group. It would be a boon to the franchise to pick in the Top 6 as opposed to 18th through 30th because much more relative draft pool money would be available to them.
RE: Thanks Optimus for for you steadfast, yeoman work with the threads  
Optimus-NY : 10/2/2023 9:46 am : link
In comment 16226853 BocaGene said:
Quote:
BTW, in my comment yesterday re: AFL, I typoed Alfonso. I was referring to Pete Alfonso, not Edwardo A.

Hey, it late and the Jamison is typing for me!


LOL! Uncle Jamison's one way to deal with this God-awful season! I zoned off to some edibles more than a time or two myself with tis bunch (should've done it more, lol)!
RE: RE: Thanks Optimus for for you steadfast, yeoman work with the threads  
Named Later : 10/2/2023 10:28 am : link
In comment 16227009 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16226853 BocaGene said:


Quote:


BTW, in my comment yesterday re: AFL, I typoed Alfonso. I was referring to Pete Alfonso, not Edwardo A.

Hey, it late and the Jamison is typing for me!



LOL! Uncle Jamison is one way to deal with this God-awful season! I zoned off to some edibles more than a time or two myself with tis bunch (should've done it more, lol)!



If you guys are going to keep mis-typing Jameson Whiskey....we're gonna get penalized 10 draft spots !!

BTW Optimus -- your description of the Draft Lux Tax Consequences is better than any other thing I've read on the subject. Please keep that paragraph handy for the 'Winter Meetings Thread' this December.
RE: RE: thanks Op, way to  
Rory : 10/2/2023 10:32 am : link
In comment 16226435 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
In comment 16226276 Rory said:


Quote:


get all the Yankee fans pissy and moany for continuing to make game threads. I found that hilariously entertaining.

Haven't posted much, but been watching/lurking on an off to close out the season.

Here's to 2024 and me not having to retire my Alonso jersey after next year.

#MattHarvey
#NoahSyndergard
#MichaelConforto
#SethLugo

-r



Me too, lol. How odd was that? Like, pay attention to your own team instead of thinking there's some sort of competition between Mets fans threads and Yankees fans threads. Makes no sense. Both teams stink. Just follow your team and mind your biz. We are a dedicated group of fans because we've seen a lot of suffering. In any case, here's to a merciful end to a long and agonizing year.



P.S. That Bart Simpson tank gif was for you Rory! :-)


your efforts do not go unnoticed. solid gold Op
RE: RE: RE: Thanks Optimus for for you steadfast, yeoman work with the threads  
Optimus-NY : 10/2/2023 10:37 am : link
In comment 16227074 Named Later said:
Quote:
In comment 16227009 Optimus-NY said:


Quote:


In comment 16226853 BocaGene said:


Quote:


BTW, in my comment yesterday re: AFL, I typoed Alfonso. I was referring to Pete Alfonso, not Edwardo A.

Hey, it late and the Jamison is typing for me!



LOL! Uncle Jamison is one way to deal with this God-awful season! I zoned off to some edibles more than a time or two myself with tis bunch (should've done it more, lol)!




If you guys are going to keep mis-typing Jameson Whiskey....we're gonna get penalized 10 draft spots !!

BTW Optimus -- your description of the Draft Lux Tax Consequences is better than any other thing I've read on the subject. Please keep that paragraph handy for the 'Winter Meetings Thread' this December.


No problem Named Later. Duly noted. I'm an experienced lecturer and teacher, so glad to know it's clear.
Thanks Optimus  
csb : 10/2/2023 10:38 am : link
You're threads are my go-to for Mets info these days - appreciate you remaining committed during such a dogshit season.
Thanks Optimus  
X : 10/2/2023 10:56 am : link
I totally forgot about the luxury tax and its implications.
Should we start a David Sterns thread today or use the Mets News  
Optimus-NY : 10/2/2023 11:03 am : link
thread from yesterday or this to chit-chat about it?
The Mets news thread from yesterday is linked below.  
Optimus-NY : 10/2/2023 11:12 am : link
Dan has got some good info there.


NFT: Mets news Earl the goat | 10/1/2023 | 2:01 pm - ( New Window )
I vote we use the Mets News thread linked above from yesterday to chat  
Optimus-NY : 10/2/2023 11:19 am : link
about the David Stearns press conference scheduled to start in about 40 minutes. Dan's got lots of useful info there already and it jibes title-wise with Buck's firing yesterday anyway.
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