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NFT: It is NHL Opening Day - Predictions, Notes, Discussion

pjcas18 : 10/10/2023 7:45 am


Three games today, all on ESPN.

NSH @ TBL 5:30PM
CHI @ PIT 8:00PM - Bedard debut
SEA @ LVG 10:30PM - Banner raising

Any predictions? I will share mine in the next post.
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RE: Scratch that  
rnargi : 1/6/2024 6:55 pm : link
In comment 16348768 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
I have no update on Jack I mixed him up with Nico.


He's out tonight, still being evaluated according to Ruff. Most outlets reporting it as an upper body injury
RE: RE: Scratch that  
Jay on the Island : 1/6/2024 7:38 pm : link
In comment 16348799 rnargi said:
Quote:
In comment 16348768 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


I have no update on Jack I mixed him up with Nico.



He's out tonight, still being evaluated according to Ruff. Most outlets reporting it as an upper body injury

I'm glad it's not his knee. Hopefully its a short term thing or else the Devils are screwed.
Yeah people are surmising it's his wrist  
Stu11 : 1/6/2024 8:02 pm : link
Or maybe shoulder. Think he's gonna be out some time. I took like 4 fwds getting hurt for Clarke to make his NHL debut. Of course he's skating with career AHL'ers baby steps...
Wow  
pjcas18 : 1/6/2024 8:49 pm : link
Nylander extension coming in TOR. 8x11.5 per Elliotte
RE: Wow  
Jay on the Island : 1/6/2024 8:56 pm : link
In comment 16348918 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Nylander extension coming in TOR. 8x11.5 per Elliotte

He's a great player but that is way too much.
RE: RE: Wow  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 7:44 am : link
In comment 16348923 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 16348918 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Nylander extension coming in TOR. 8x11.5 per Elliotte


He's a great player but that is way too much.


I guess it's really just Tavares' money for a year. And I don't notice Tavares much but maybe that's ok on a team with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

but for that one year, if this happens they will have a ton tied up in a few players.

Matthews: 13.25M (through 2027-2028)
Nylander*: 11.5 (rumored to be 8 years)
Tavares: 11M (through 2024-2025)
Marner: 10.9M (though 2024-2025)
Rielly: 7.5M (through 2029-2030)

so at least next year that is almost $45M in 5 players. The cap is expected to be 87.5M.

So around $42M left for the other 18 contracts?

Talk about being top heavy - and having no goalie which has kind of been their Achilles heel.

They do get some relief in 2025, but that comes at the cost of possibly losing Marner (and Tavares). I think Tavares they'd be ok letting go at 34/35 whatever he'll be but Marner is in his prime. All their LTIR (AFAIK) goes away after this year (Matt Murray, Jake Muzzin, John Klingberg - all UFA's after the season) so it's not even like they can exceed the cap next year (without accruing new LTIR)
sorry  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 7:51 am : link
that's $54M in those 5 players.

The cap is expected to be 87.5M.

So around $33M left for the other 18 contracts?
Sounds like  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 8:14 am : link
the Devils lost Siegenthaler to a broken foot. He'll be out a while.

that team is taking some lumps.

RE: Sounds like  
Stu11 : 1/7/2024 9:44 am : link
In comment 16349138 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
the Devils lost Siegenthaler to a broken foot. He'll be out a while.

that team is taking some lumps.

Yeah it's been a rough week injury wise. Sounds like a according to Elliot Friedman they don't anticipate Jack needing surgery for whatever UB injury he has. It really is a joke how they treat divulging injury info. They were uncharacteristic for them pretty quick in both Siegenthaler and Dougie's case as they were both the most serious so it leads me to believe that Jack's isn't nearly as serious.
RE: RE: Sounds like  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 9:47 am : link
In comment 16349210 Stu11 said:
Quote:
In comment 16349138 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


the Devils lost Siegenthaler to a broken foot. He'll be out a while.

that team is taking some lumps.



Yeah it's been a rough week injury wise. Sounds like a according to Elliot Friedman they don't anticipate Jack needing surgery for whatever UB injury he has. It really is a joke how they treat divulging injury info. They were uncharacteristic for them pretty quick in both Siegenthaler and Dougie's case as they were both the most serious so it leads me to believe that Jack's isn't nearly as serious.


In hockey it had been tradition to not reveal the injury when its one that the opponent can target. the only exceptions I have seen to this are in the modern era and concussions and maybe for the same reason - amongst gentleman you may avoid the head of someone concussed, but separated shoulder, broken bone in the hand, collar bone, broken jaw, nose, etc they're coming after you.

I think it's just more habit now than anything else.
I know it's a hockey thing with the injuries  
Stu11 : 1/7/2024 10:41 am : link
But the Devils take it to the next level with divulging nothing unless it's season threatening. Quinn also said "it's not as bad as it looked" well it didn't look that bad lol so I'm not sure what that even means.
Nylander  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2024 1:18 pm : link
official.

8 years x11.5.

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
8x$11.5M. Key details: $69M in bonuses and $27M of contract paid in first two years

RE: Nylander  
Stu11 : 1/8/2024 1:48 pm : link
In comment 16353119 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
official.

8 years x11.5.

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
8x$11.5M. Key details: $69M in bonuses and $27M of contract paid in first two years

Full NMC for the life of the deal too. That's a big gulp.
Big trade IMO  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2024 7:34 pm : link
TSN Hockey
@TSNHockey
#TradeCentre ALERT - The Philadelphia Flyers have acquired defenceman Jamie Drysdale and a 2025 second-round draft pick from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for forward Cutter Gauthier:
I guess this explains  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2024 7:36 pm : link
it. Under the circumstances I get PHI did ok, but man Gauthier looked good at the WJC.


Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
Wowzers. This is one we get to look back on in 10 years and re-examine.
As @frank_seravalli
said, Gauthier didn’t want to sign with the Flyers and I’m told wouldn’t meet with the Flyers front office to let them explain their plan. Flyers made best of it given those circumstances.
Wow.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/8/2024 10:17 pm : link
I'm surprised. Makes no sense to me? He was amazing during the WJCs.
Drysdale has a hard time getting on the ice  
Stu11 : 1/9/2024 8:15 am : link
but he was a top 10 pick just a few years ago and has promise. Under the circumstances I guess they did the best they could do before it really got out how opposed he was to signing there. Gautier is already climbing up my favorite list by the second lol. Anaheim sure has an interesting group of young fwds they are developing.
The big thing  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 8:21 am : link
is Gauthier saying he wouldn't play for Philly it sounds like.

Not sure why.
.....  
BrettNYG10 : 1/9/2024 10:59 am : link
Flyers are acting like petulant children over this, lol.

I think more players should demand trades. Rangers have had three first rounders ask to leave over the past decade, and I wouldn't have blamed Laf or Kakko if they asked to leave.
True  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 12:25 pm : link
but Gauthier did not sign an ELC and is a true sophomore (19 years old) on the #1 rated team in NCAA.

If he doesn't sign his ELC after this year then why sign it all? he'd be a college free agent after 1 more year and could sign anywhere. Like Vesey and others have done.

So in some regards the Flyers are being petulant, but in others they are trying to maximize the return/hedge against the loss of the #5 overall pick for nothing.
Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
Stu11 : 1/9/2024 12:38 pm : link
said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.
RE: Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 1:17 pm : link
In comment 16355999 Stu11 said:
Quote:
said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.


NHL is obviously different, but I had a high school teammate break his jaw (hit by a friendly fire wrist shot in warm ups). he didn't miss a game even with his jaw wired shut and drinking his meals through a straw). He did wear a non-contact jersey in practice and I accidentally caught him with a shoulder and re-broke his jaw and he still holds a grudge 30 years later, but my point is put a cage on and get out there (if that's what it is).
RE: RE: Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
Stu11 : 1/9/2024 1:39 pm : link
In comment 16356107 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 16355999 Stu11 said:


Quote:


said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.



NHL is obviously different, but I had a high school teammate break his jaw (hit by a friendly fire wrist shot in warm ups). he didn't miss a game even with his jaw wired shut and drinking his meals through a straw). He did wear a non-contact jersey in practice and I accidentally caught him with a shoulder and re-broke his jaw and he still holds a grudge 30 years later, but my point is put a cage on and get out there (if that's what it is).

Jack was a shoulder or wrist. Bedard was a broken jaw.
RE: RE: RE: Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 1:41 pm : link
In comment 16356155 Stu11 said:
Quote:
In comment 16356107 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 16355999 Stu11 said:


Quote:


said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.



NHL is obviously different, but I had a high school teammate break his jaw (hit by a friendly fire wrist shot in warm ups). he didn't miss a game even with his jaw wired shut and drinking his meals through a straw). He did wear a non-contact jersey in practice and I accidentally caught him with a shoulder and re-broke his jaw and he still holds a grudge 30 years later, but my point is put a cage on and get out there (if that's what it is).


Jack was a shoulder or wrist. Bedard was a broken jaw.


and he's 18 or 19, he should be playing.

shoulder wrist need to heel so you don't do more damage.
Well the Canucks rolled through the area over 4 days  
Stu11 : 1/10/2024 1:51 pm : link
and took the NY metro area cup. smoking the Devils, Rangers and Islanders. Thats a pretty rare achievement. They are a good team for sure.
RE: True  
BrettNYG10 : 1/10/2024 2:26 pm : link
In comment 16355960 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but Gauthier did not sign an ELC and is a true sophomore (19 years old) on the #1 rated team in NCAA.

If he doesn't sign his ELC after this year then why sign it all? he'd be a college free agent after 1 more year and could sign anywhere. Like Vesey and others have done.

So in some regards the Flyers are being petulant, but in others they are trying to maximize the return/hedge against the loss of the #5 overall pick for nothing.


I thought some of the commentary by their management was childish. "He told us he wanted to be a Flyer, now he doesn't! He won't talk to us." It was a little Chargers-esque

I don't remember the organizations Hayes/Fox/Vesey/Wheeler spurned having a similar reaction.

My view is organizations should ask why players don't want to go there and do some self analysis.
Briere  
pjcas18 : 1/10/2024 4:08 pm : link
has been in the job for six months.

I'm sure the Flyers could/should have done some things differently but like the Rangers with Lias and Kravtsov sometimes it's the player, sometimes it's the team, sometimes it's mutual.

I don't know enough to blame anyone.

the one comment I felt like was out of line was from the executive (?) who said he's lucky hockey players wear helmets so Cutter won't suffer the JD Drew fate (baseball fans throwing batteries at his head).
RE: .....  
BillKo : 1/10/2024 4:53 pm : link
In comment 16355759 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Flyers are acting like petulant children over this, lol.

I think more players should demand trades. Rangers have had three first rounders ask to leave over the past decade, and I wouldn't have blamed Laf or Kakko if they asked to leave.


Interesting take.

I certainly don't side w/ the player drafted. However, if you don't want to go, he should have made the Flyers aware of that......not sure if he did.
I'm a man of the people, Bill.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/10/2024 8:58 pm : link
Players have so few years to grow and develop, get chances, and maximize earnings (or overall enjoyment of their careers, whether that's money, winning, location, whatever). Use whatever leverage you have when you have it.

My understanding in this case is that he told him he wanted to be a Flyer before the draft and then told them he didn't after last year's WJC (January, about seven months after he was drafted). Do I think he handled this well? No. Do I think he should have provided an explanation and met with them? Or course.

But teams ship guys out all the time, so even though Gauthier was an asshole here, I support him asking to be traded. There's ways to do it appropriately, of course.

Also, I'm curious on what's wrong with the Flyers specifically. They seem to be trending in the right direction, Philadelphia seems like a fun city, etc. It's a little confusing to me. Kravtsov and Lundkvist's trade requests made sense (particularly the latter's), but I don't really remember the circumstances surrounding Lias's ask.
Gauthier  
pjcas18 : 1/10/2024 9:07 pm : link
receiving death threats. justifying his decision I guess. bunch of gutless cowards sending an anonymous death threat on social media because a 19-year old kid doesn't want to play for a team you cheer for.
RE: Gauthier  
Jay on the Island : 1/10/2024 9:55 pm : link
In comment 16359099 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
receiving death threats. justifying his decision I guess. bunch of gutless cowards sending an anonymous death threat on social media because a 19-year old kid doesn't want to play for a team you cheer for.

Are you surprised? It’s Philly fans.
RE: Gauthier  
BillKo : 1/10/2024 10:56 pm : link
In comment 16359099 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
receiving death threats. justifying his decision I guess. bunch of gutless cowards sending an anonymous death threat on social media because a 19-year old kid doesn't want to play for a team you cheer for.


Welcome to modern times.

Terrible.
RE: I'm a man of the people, Bill.  
BillKo : 1/10/2024 11:00 pm : link
In comment 16359088 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Players have so few years to grow and develop, get chances, and maximize earnings (or overall enjoyment of their careers, whether that's money, winning, location, whatever). Use whatever leverage you have when you have it.

My understanding in this case is that he told him he wanted to be a Flyer before the draft and then told them he didn't after last year's WJC (January, about seven months after he was drafted). Do I think he handled this well? No. Do I think he should have provided an explanation and met with them? Or course.

But teams ship guys out all the time, so even though Gauthier was an asshole here, I support him asking to be traded. There's ways to do it appropriately, of course.

Also, I'm curious on what's wrong with the Flyers specifically. They seem to be trending in the right direction, Philadelphia seems like a fun city, etc. It's a little confusing to me. Kravtsov and Lundkvist's trade requests made sense (particularly the latter's), but I don't really remember the circumstances surrounding Lias's ask.


I'd like to know what the change of heart was regarding Philly.
Congratulations to Ilya Samsonov  
Jay on the Island : 1/12/2024 3:18 pm : link
He is no longer dead last in the NHL in goals saved about expected. Vitek Vanecek now holds that honor with a -13.42 GSAE. Vanecek was a +5.1 last season.
RE: Congratulations to Ilya Samsonov  
JayBinQueens : 1/12/2024 3:27 pm : link
In comment 16361622 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
He is no longer dead last in the NHL in goals saved about expected. Vitek Vanecek now holds that honor with a -13.42 GSAE. Vanecek was a +5.1 last season.


Devils need to make a move before it's too late
Yeah I'm not keeping track  
Stu11 : 1/12/2024 4:08 pm : link
But last night was at least the 5th game or so that we lost pretty much solely because of goaltending. We outplayed Tampa, out high danger chanced them and lost only because Vas clearly outplayed Vanacek. The more I think about it they should just make the rumored 1 stop shopping trade with Calgary for Markstrom and Tanev. Would shore up the goaltending and defense and add some well needed physicality on the back line. Markstrom is signed for big $ through next season. That would work. We could see if he is the answer the rest of this year and if he isn't there is only next year left on the deal.
RE: Yeah I'm not keeping track  
Jay on the Island : 1/12/2024 4:23 pm : link
In comment 16361683 Stu11 said:
Quote:
But last night was at least the 5th game or so that we lost pretty much solely because of goaltending. We outplayed Tampa, out high danger chanced them and lost only because Vas clearly outplayed Vanacek. The more I think about it they should just make the rumored 1 stop shopping trade with Calgary for Markstrom and Tanev. Would shore up the goaltending and defense and add some well needed physicality on the back line. Markstrom is signed for big $ through next season. That would work. We could see if he is the answer the rest of this year and if he isn't there is only next year left on the deal.

They need to just waive Vanecek at this point. The other option is to try to trade him straight up for another struggling goalie like Samsonov or Raanta.

Jack Hughes for Jonathan Quick  
BrettNYG10 : 1/12/2024 4:24 pm : link
Who says no
Daws with an excellent game against Florida  
BH28 : 1/13/2024 8:46 pm : link
Devils need to start him going forward and give him some run see how he does. Really is no downside.
Daws with a brilliant 35 save effort  
Stu11 : 1/13/2024 8:46 pm : link
Breaks the Panthers 9 game winning streak. He has to have the crease for the time being. Ruff has this annoying habit of going with a guy until he loses one game then goes back to the other guy. Unless it's a back to back Daws has to be the guy for now till they go outside of the organization.
Ha ha or what BH said  
Stu11 : 1/13/2024 8:48 pm : link
.
RE: Ha ha or what BH said  
BH28 : 1/13/2024 9:01 pm : link
In comment 16362865 Stu11 said:
Quote:
.


I mean if it's painfully obvious to us, at what point does Fitzgerald force the issue?
Raanta  
pjcas18 : 1/13/2024 9:29 pm : link
is back starting again with CAR I think. I believe Kochetkov got hurt.

RE: Daws with a brilliant 35 save effort  
Jay on the Island : 1/14/2024 10:09 am : link
In comment 16362862 Stu11 said:
Quote:
Breaks the Panthers 9 game winning streak. He has to have the crease for the time being. Ruff has this annoying habit of going with a guy until he loses one game then goes back to the other guy. Unless it's a back to back Daws has to be the guy for now till they go outside of the organization.

You and BH are absolutely right. It is so obvious that Vanecek should not start anymore. Fitzgerald has to bring in someone else even if its a cheap veteran FA at this point. They can't play worse than Vanecek has this season.
EDM  
pjcas18 : 1/14/2024 10:49 am : link
just set the longest win streak in team history with an OT win at Bell Center last night.

MTL outplayed them but an OT high stick led to a PP they couldn't hold off.

So many chances for the Habs. Montembeault is turning into a legit starting goalie.

I think MTL could trade Monahan and Matheson or Savard at the deadline. All should be in high demand if they stay healthy. I think they could look to move players like Gallagher (unlikely - contract), Armia (likely) and other role players.
Yeah the Habs are definitely building  
Stu11 : 1/14/2024 11:44 am : link
They have nice young pieces and should get another good pick this year. If Montembeault is the answer in net that's a huge piece and they extended him very affordably for the next 3 seasons. They play hard every night. Never an easy 2 points.
USA women  
pjcas18 : 1/14/2024 1:55 pm : link
in the gold medal game for the U18's right now.

Canada won bronze over Finland. USA playing Czechia who knocked out Canada in the semis.

2-0 USA after 1.
Draft fans  
pjcas18 : 1/15/2024 9:40 am : link
with nothing to do today this is on NHLN at 4pm.

A lot of the top few rounds US prospects will be playing.

HockeyProspect.com
@ScoutingService
The All-American Prospects Game takes place this afternoon at USA Hockey Arena in Plymouth, Michigan. #NHLDraft
RE: USA women  
pjcas18 : 1/15/2024 9:41 am : link
In comment 16363460 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
in the gold medal game for the U18's right now.

Canada won bronze over Finland. USA playing Czechia who knocked out Canada in the semis.

2-0 USA after 1.


US women won the gold, 5-1 over Czechia.
Up to me I'd  
pjcas18 : 1/15/2024 10:30 am : link
keep Monahan, but I get his outside of their window to compete.

I think this price is fair.

The questions on Monahan have never been talent, just health. I think Savard and Monahan get moved from MTL.

Quote:
/r/Habs
@HabsOnReddit
According to the Fourth Period, here’s the Habs asking price for Sean Monahan.

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