NFT: It is NHL Opening Day - Predictions, Notes, Discussion

I feel like there are 3 or 4 serious cup contenders about 10-12 teams who can win, 3 or 4 borderline teams who can contend for a playoff spot and about 6-8 teams who will be vying for Macklin Celebrini/Cole Eiserman.

The Metro is loaded this year.

My Rankings by division:
Atlantic:
1. TOR*
2. FLA*
3. BOS*
4. TBL
5. OTT*
6. BUF
7. DET
8. MTL

Metro:
1. NJD*
2. CAR*
3. NYR*
4. PIT*
5. NYI
6. WAS
7. CBJ
8. PHI

Central
1. DAL*
2. COL*
3. MIN*
4. WIN
5. STL
6. CHI
7. NSH
8. ARI

Pacific
1. EDM*
2. LVG*
3. LAK*
4. CAL*
5. VAN*
6. SEA
7. ANA
8. SJS

Teams with an asterisk are my picks for playoffs.

I think the following teams can be considered cup contenders:
NJD, CAR, EDM, DAL, TOR

Can win:
COL, NYR, BOS, FLA, LAK (dark horse to win), MIN, PIT (with health)

the following teams are in the Celebrini/Eiserman race:
MTL, SJS, ARI, PHI

Money puck odds below:

Favorites: EDM, CAR, TOR, DAL, BOS, LVG

After the loss to the Devils, I was feeling like the Rangers are never going to win the Cup again. Now, after what I think was a very under the radar and effective offseason, I think they will be one of the best teams in the league again. That said, I predict the Stars win the Cup this year.

If McDavid is healthy, he casually puts up 160 points and wins the Hart again. Oettinger is my Vezina pick, Fox for the Norris. For Bedard, I think 85 points is a realistic outlook given the talent around him, but within a few seasons should be a perennial 100 point player. Selke, I have no idea who will win with Bergeron gone, part of me thinks they'll just slap his name on the trophy again.

If I'm picking a non-playoff team from last year from each conference to push their way in, it's probably Calgary and Ottawa. No real surprises there, Buffalo and Detroit could be risers in the East too. It'll be hard in the Atlantic with Toronto, Boston, Tampa, Florida looking like they should all be playoff teams. Should be interesting to see how it all shakes out!

I've never understood the NHL's scheduling.

I don't have any predictions, I'm happy hockey is back and am looking forward to a good season from the Islanders. I think they'll be a playoff team, hopefully they'll have a run n them come springtime.

for the best. no other way to approach them.

definitely a believer in OTT and BUF.

Just not yet sold on goalie.

Korpisalo/Forsberg can be good, but playoff/cup good? not sure
Levi could be Vezina good, but he's young

You can argue they are the best team up the middle in the league with Kopitar, PLD, Danault, with some elite wingers in Fiala and Kempe. They're a little shaky at the blue line and in goal.

Carolina has the same problem they have every year, they still don't have the elite scoring wingers you need to go through the playoffs, where Devils I feel have the opposite problem and are all speed, and lack the grinding element the playoffs demand. Rangers are a balance between the two, but their issue is inconsistency. Kreider can look like the best player in the world one night, then you don't hear his name the next. Lafreniere, Kakko do not produce enough offensively. As good as these Metro teams are, they are all flawed. That said, pretty much every team is flawed, and even the ones who look like they aren't (Boston last year), it's still tough to go through the playoff gauntlet.

McDavid can put up 170 points (> 2 ppg pace).

would be the most points in a season since Lemieux's 199 in 88-89.

has LAK as 13th in win the cup percent, so that's why I consider them a dark horse. Anyone outside the top 5 I kind of think is a dark horse, but maybe that's splitting hairs since they are expected (63.7%) to make the playoffs.

In comment 16243031 Victor in CT said:

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for the best. no other way to approach them.

That is the smart way to go about it, but I'm too damn stupid to do it that way lol. Here's how I look at it though. I think Laviolette, while not an "exciting" hire, is going to make a big difference. After seeing all the stuff I've seen about Gallant basically completely having nothing to do with the team last year, how he wasn't on speaking terms with Drury, supposedly, players seemed to turn on him pretty quickly...I think Laviolette brings the stability they need. I'm also excited about their assistant/associate coaching hires. Maybe Peca can get in the dot with Chytil and make him a terrible faceoff center instead of the worst in the league.

Lineup-wise, the Rangers look really good on paper, IF Lafreniere and Kakko can produce more offensively, and if Panarin can be more of an impact player in the playoffs. I think the Bonino and Wheeler signings are brilliant. I look at Wheeler as Lafreniere insurance. If Lafreniere can't cut it in the top 6, Wheeler can play at 2RW. He also gets to the blue paint, which no Rangers forwards really seemed interested in doing while Akira Schmid got way too comfortable in the playoffs. Cuylle is going to be a difference maker as well. Defensively, 1-6 they are about as good as anyone. Gustafsson was another great signing, and I expect Miller and Schneider to be better than they were last year. Miller in particular, has looked like he can be great, but has also had some rough stretches, I think we see more consistency out of him this year.

I don’t get why NHL & NBA start when they do. They get lost in the sauce between NFL, CF, & MLB playoffs.

most isn't Chytil (who worries me) or Lafreniere or Kakko or Cuylle - it's Schneider.

he looked awful in the pre-season and they need him to develop into a future top pair D/at least top 4.

In comment 16243044 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

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I don’t get why NHL & NBA start when they do. They get lost in the sauce between NFL, CF, & MLB playoffs.

they have to if they want to end when they do.

In comment 16243045 pjcas18 said:

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most isn't Chytil (who worries me) or Lafreniere or Kakko or Cuylle - it's Schneider. he looked awful in the pre-season and they need him to develop into a future top pair D/at least top 4.

What in particular are your concerns about Chytil? For me, it's his inconsistency, how he has his stretches of 7 goals in 5 games, then goes 12 games without a goal. Schneider I think will be good with a more stable player next to him. I don't put too much stock in what happens in preseason, but younger guys like him, I do like to see have more of an impact, the way Cuylle and Othmann did.

In comment 16243031 Victor in CT said:

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for the best. no other way to approach them.

This is my approach. A very similar roster to last year with a different coach. Laviolette will let Kakko, Chytil and Laf get into the top six. I actually like the Rangers bottom six this year and I think that could be pivotal. Also, this might be the first time in a while they have to worry about a backup goalie being able to go out and win games. This isn't 2014 Jonathan Quick.

In comment 16243049 ShockNRoll said:

Quote:

In comment 16243045 pjcas18 said: Quote: most isn't Chytil (who worries me) or Lafreniere or Kakko or Cuylle - it's Schneider. he looked awful in the pre-season and they need him to develop into a future top pair D/at least top 4. What in particular are your concerns about Chytil? For me, it's his inconsistency, how he has his stretches of 7 goals in 5 games, then goes 12 games without a goal. Schneider I think will be good with a more stable player next to him. I don't put too much stock in what happens in preseason, but younger guys like him, I do like to see have more of an impact, the way Cuylle and Othmann did.

You hit on it - he's unplayable late in games at C because he cannot win a face off. So, it means my line configuration has to include a wing who can take a face off on his line or I need to avoid them late in the game.

Its not uncommon for players to be awful on the dots as youngsters, but improve over time (see Kotkaniemi 42% in year 2 and they threatened to move him off C and now he's over 51% back to back years and still just 22 years old) but Chytil is rapidly approaching the age where you'll get it or you won't.

I like his game otherwise but agree consistency is lacking.

(lol, I can't not laugh to myself whenever I type major award)

predictions:
Hart: McDavid
Ross: McDavid
Richard: Pastrnak
Norris: Dahlin
Vezina: Igor
Selke: Bergeron (just kidding), Kopitar
Calder: Cooley (everyone on the planet has Bedard who I think wins, but I want Cooley to win, lol)

Final 4: NJD, TOR, DAL, EDM

DAL beats NJD in the finals

Conn Smythe: Jason Robertson

In comment 16243096 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

(lol, I can't not laugh to myself whenever I type major award) predictions: Hart: McDavid Ross: McDavid Richard: Pastrnak Norris: Dahlin Vezina: Igor Selke: Bergeron (just kidding), Kopitar Calder: Cooley (everyone on the planet has Bedard who I think wins, but I want Cooley to win, lol) Final 4: NJD, TOR, DAL, EDM DAL beats NJD in the finals Conn Smythe: Jason Robertson

Maybe the other guy whose name is pronounced Cooley can make a run! I see what you're saying about Chytil and agree. I can live with a guy whose faceoff percentage is 45/46. Chytil being sub 40 is concerning. It's funny though, because I feel like there are several times that when he does win, he wins clean, and it often leads to a goal. Or the goal he scored off the faceoff against Toronto last year. He has the size, speed, skill to be a great player, and one of my "bold predictions" is that he scores 30 this year.

Cup Final, I am going to predict the Rangers get there to lose to the Stars (I said Dallas earlier, but didn't say who they'd beat). Conn Smythe I'll pick Oettinger, Richard Trophy I'll say Matthews after a "down year" where he only scored 40. Selke, I'll say Barkov. Hoping Zibanejad and Kakko can get into this conversation too, but highly doubt they'll be finalists.

Why do you have TBL above OTT in your rankings but have OTT making the playoffs and not TB?

In comment 16243125 BrettNYG10 said:

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Why do you have TBL above OTT in your rankings but have OTT making the playoffs and not TB?

lol, I should have them flipped in the rankings. I was going back and forth on them. TBL is descending, OTT ascending, just not sure how much yet. If TBL goalie play is not great while Vasilevskiy is out then I stand by OTT leap frogging them.

Haha, okay. I'm an OTT truther as well.

In comment 16243053 Costy16 said:

Quote:

In comment 16243031 Victor in CT said: Quote: for the best. no other way to approach them. This is my approach. A very similar roster to last year with a different coach. Laviolette will let Kakko, Chytil and Laf get into the top six. I actually like the Rangers bottom six this year and I think that could be pivotal. Also, this might be the first time in a while they have to worry about a backup goalie being able to go out and win games. This isn't 2014 Jonathan Quick.

50+ years of Ranger fandom does this to a person :-)

even without Vasilevskiy. Their lineup is still stacked top to bottom. Goaltending is definitely an issue until he comes back, but they have a great core, they're deep up the middle, have a solid blue line. Power play is dynamic. They aren't the powerhouse they were a few years ago, but they're still definitely a playoff team in my opinion.

So after the train wreck of a season for the Giants I am just going to assume the worst rather than get my hopes up. But no matter what I am excited for hockey season to start. Good luck to all except fans of Montreal and Toronto.

on NJD...
After a lousy Yankees and Giants seasons, it's the only light left shining.
I think they will do ok, cup? maybe not yet but the arrow is pointing way up for this team.

are insane. either would be a good PP1.

I would put Jack with Meier, Hischier, Luke and Toffoli though. that is like an Olympic team or all-star team PP.

Quote:

Amanda Stein @amandacstein Behold two equally powerful #NJDevils man-advantage units that do not deserve to be distinguished by 1 or 2: As the captain, we will start with Nico’s unit: Meier, Hischier, Holtz, Mercer and Dougie. Followed by Jack’s unit: Toffoli, Jack, Bratt, Palat and Luke. 11:21 AM · Oct 10, 2023 · 3,180 Views

Rangers bounce back with a deep playoff run.

Isles continue to be most boring team in hockey, and miss the playoffs.

Devils succumb to their unsettled defensive corps and goalie situation and get bounced in playoffs in first round.

Those are my only predictions. ;-)

In comment 16243031 Victor in CT said:

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for the best. no other way to approach them.

I don't agree. The Rangers are one of my only teams that I don't need that pessimistic view on, going into every season. Although I sure as hell have that outlook every season with Giants, Knicks and BC football/hoops! Yankees I always expect a playoff team.

In comment 16243044 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

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I don’t get why NHL & NBA start when they do. They get lost in the sauce between NFL, CF, & MLB playoffs.

They're indoor sports. They don't want the playoffs dragging into the summer.

in that game vs PIT

Crosby, Malkin, and Letang will set the record for most consecutive seasons for a trio to play together in all of professional American sports.

18 years.

They had previously been in a tie with Jeter, Rivera and Posada.

In comment 16243053 Costy16 said:

Quote:

In comment 16243031 Victor in CT said: Quote: for the best. no other way to approach them. This is my approach. A very similar roster to last year with a different coach. Laviolette will let Kakko, Chytil and Laf get into the top six. I actually like the Rangers bottom six this year and I think that could be pivotal. Also, this might be the first time in a while they have to worry about a backup goalie being able to go out and win games. This isn't 2014 Jonathan Quick.

Completely agree. Never understood the Quick signing. He stunk last year and is turning 38 this season. So last season shouldn't be expected to have been an aberration, but more likely now the norm. Jaro Halak apparently was never offered any big money, as he is still unsigned...so he probably could have been brought back for the same deal Quick got. Would have much preferred him. Halak only needs 5 more wins to get to 300, so I'm sure he still wants to play too. I wonder if Halak will be on speed dial if Quick starts off the year looking like shit.

In comment 16243315 BC Eagles94 said:

Quote:

Rangers bounce back with a deep playoff run. Isles continue to be most boring team in hockey, and miss the playoffs. Devils succumb to their unsettled defensive corps and goalie situation and get bounced in playoffs in first round. Those are my only predictions. ;-)

Yeah I think you can be right. A lot of the Rangers' questions were around bottom 6 and defensive depth. They addressed both of those things in the offseason, not to mention that if they need a boost later in the season, Othmann will be waiting in Hartford. I think Wheeler may be the most "underrated" signing by any team this offseason. I know he's older, but he's still a 60+ point player. That number may drop off a little this year with him presumably getting 3rd line/2nd PP minutes, but I think a line of him with Cuylle and Trocheck can be imposing, a good blend of skill, size and physicality.

In comment 16243356 BC Eagles94 said:

Quote:

In comment 16243053 Costy16 said: Quote: In comment 16243031 Victor in CT said: Quote: for the best. no other way to approach them. This is my approach. A very similar roster to last year with a different coach. Laviolette will let Kakko, Chytil and Laf get into the top six. I actually like the Rangers bottom six this year and I think that could be pivotal. Also, this might be the first time in a while they have to worry about a backup goalie being able to go out and win games. This isn't 2014 Jonathan Quick. Completely agree. Never understood the Quick signing. He stunk last year and is turning 38 this season. So last season shouldn't be expected to have been an aberration, but more likely now the norm. Jaro Halak apparently was never offered any big money, as he is still unsigned...so he probably could have been brought back for the same deal Quick got. Would have much preferred him. Halak only needs 5 more wins to get to 300, so I'm sure he still wants to play too. I wonder if Halak will be on speed dial if Quick starts off the year looking like shit.

I think if Quick doesn't work out, Rangers feel comfortable with Garand, at least for now. Quick will benefit from a good blue line, an area where the Kings were severely lacking last year. He was pretty good in Vegas, went 5-2-2 for them down the stretch, so I'm hopeful that with this lineup in front of him, he can be decent. If he plays 20 games, I think he can reasonably go something like 10-5-5. I'm not putting much stock into what we saw in preseason. This is Jonathan Quick, the guy has won 2 Cups and played in almost 100 playoff games. Just like Panarin, Kreider, Zibanejad, these guys are going through the motions during preseason.

A few 2023 draft picks:
Bedard, Carlsson, Fantilli, Cowan

Nathan "Grav"
@NathanGraviteh
Notable rookies on opening night rosters around the NHL, a thread 🧵:

Leo Carlsson (ANA)
Pavel Mintyukov (ANA)
Lukas Dostal (ANA)
Tristan Luneau (ANA)
Jackson LaCombe (ANA)
Logan Cooley (ARI)
Matthew Poitras (BOS)
John Beecher (BOS)
Jakub Lauko (BOS)

Nathan "Grav"
@NathanGraviteh
Notable NHL rookies on opening night rosters Part 2🧵:

Devon Levi (BUF)
Zach Benson (BUF)
Matthew Coronato (CGY)
Jakob Pelletier (CGY)
Adam Fantilli (CBJ)
Daniil Tarasov (CBJ)
Mackie Samoskevich (FLA)
Alex Laferriere (LAK)
Marco Rossi (MIN)
Brock Faber (MIN)

Nathan "Grav"
@NathanGraviteh
Notable NHL rookies on opening night rosters Part 3 🧵:

Luke Evangelista (NSH)
Alexander Holtz (NJD)
Luke Hughes (NJD)
Samuel Bolduc (NYI)
Will Cuylle (NYR)
Bobby Brink (PHI)
Tyson Foerster (PHI)
Emil Andrae (PHI)
Samuel Ersson (PHI)
Henry Thrun (SJS)
Ty Emberson (SJS)

Nathan "Grav"
@NathanGraviteh
Notable NHL rookies on opening night rosters Part 4 🧵:

Tye Kartye (SEA)
Scott Perunovich (STL)
Joel Hofer (STL)
Matthew Knies (TOR)
Fraser Minten (TOR)
Easton Cowan (Likely sent down, TOR)
Pavel Dorofeyev (VGK)
Ivan Miroshichenko (WSH)
Matthew Phillips (WSH)
Alex Alexeyev (WSH)

East Playoff teams:
Car
NJD
NYR
Tor
Bos
Fla
TB
Buff
I think Ottawa and Pitt are right there the whole way and I could see one of them making it. Vas is a big loss, but TB with their championship pedigree will find a way to compensate and slide into the playoffs. I'm all in on Buffalo being a new team in. I think like the Devils they will just play too fast for a lot of teams to deal with.

West
Col
Dal
LV
Minn
LAK
Edm
Sea
Cal
I think the competition 1-10 is better in the East, but the top teams in the west may be the top teams overall. I think the 7-8 spots in the west are weak and Vancouver could slide in if Seattle falls back to reality this year.
Playoffs:
Tor over Car in the ECF
Col over Dallas in the WCF
Colorado wins the cup.
I just think everyone expected them to win cups, they did it rather easily 2 years ago, slipped up a bit last year but I think they bounce back and take it this year though if Oettinger gets his act together in the playoffs, it wouldn't be shocking if they won it all. I do think this is the year for Toronto to make a run. There is no dominant team in the East so why not them? They got the playoff series monkey off their back last year and could have easily beaten Florida if not for multiple OT bounces.

was a rough go with baseball and Giants and ND haven't been any better.

NYI should be as advertised. Borderline playoff team with a great goalie, good d-line, and a bunch of question marks along with a few playmakers at forward.

Wouldn't be too surprised to see them make the playoffs and make some noise, but a playoff miss is certainly possible too. Looking forward to seeing Horvat and Barzal play together with a full camp to work on chemistry.

If the 4th line is truly done, I hope Lambert has a guts to move on like he did with Bailey last year.

I think the NHL blew a big opportunity yesterday with a lot of kids off from school to have a hyped up fun opening day with some day games leading to games throughout the day. I agree that it is so weird how the NHL staggers openings so much. The Nashville Mayor declared today Predators day in Nashville and they're making a big deal about a 5:30 opener down town. Ideas like that are what the league needs. This is a golden era of young budding superstars in the league. Market it!

Crazy talk.

I think they are on the decline.

Stamkos, Kucherov and Hedman maybe 2nd in the league the PIT big 3 Crosby, Malkin and Letang in tenure (but it's *just* 10 years they have been together).

I think TBL is very top heavy (with those 3, Point, Cirelli and Sergachev) and the top isn't always healthy.

When they haven't been Vasilevskiy has bailed them out, but without him it comes down to a journeyman goalie.

I would not be shocked if they miss the playoffs.

Gun to my head, I think FL is the team to miss it. But I wouldn't be shocked at TB. I think their days as a top-tier contender are over.

if it was winter I may agree with you, but no kids are staying indoors all day on Columbus Day to watch hockey.

Too many other options - besides it's one of the biggest youth hockey tournament weekends of the year.

with my buddy from home (went to Quinnipiac vs BC - for the banner raising - great game) who coached Mackie Samoskevich (FLA rookie from 2021 draft) and all he'd talk about all weekend is how good this kid is going to be.

He was overshadowed on his INTL play on WJC/U18 USA teams by players like Cooley, Berniers, etc. but he always had a wicked shot that stood.

Regardless of him, I put FLA (based on talent and age of talent) ahead of TBL. They have got to fix that blue line though in FLA. Without Ekblad and Montour it's a bunch of bottom pair Ds. Mikkola may be on their top pair to open the season.

In comment 16243442 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

with my buddy from home (went to Quinnipiac vs BC - for the banner raising - great game) who coached Mackie Samoskevich (FLA rookie from 2021 draft) and all he'd talk about all weekend is how good this kid is going to be. He was overshadowed on his INTL play on WJC/U18 USA teams by players like Cooley, Berniers, etc. but he always had a wicked shot that stood. Regardless of him, I put FLA (based on talent and age of talent) ahead of TBL. They have got to fix that blue line though in FLA. Without Ekblad and Montour it's a bunch of bottom pair Ds. Mikkola may be on their top pair to open the season.

Mackie is a fellow Sandy Hook resident! Pretty exciting to see him getting a shot this year with Florida, and hope he lights it up with the exception of the 3 times the Rangers play the Panthers!

In comment 16243498 ShockNRoll said:

Quote:

In comment 16243442 pjcas18 said: Quote: with my buddy from home (went to Quinnipiac vs BC - for the banner raising - great game) who coached Mackie Samoskevich (FLA rookie from 2021 draft) and all he'd talk about all weekend is how good this kid is going to be. He was overshadowed on his INTL play on WJC/U18 USA teams by players like Cooley, Berniers, etc. but he always had a wicked shot that stood. Regardless of him, I put FLA (based on talent and age of talent) ahead of TBL. They have got to fix that blue line though in FLA. Without Ekblad and Montour it's a bunch of bottom pair Ds. Mikkola may be on their top pair to open the season. Mackie is a fellow Sandy Hook resident! Pretty exciting to see him getting a shot this year with Florida, and hope he lights it up with the exception of the 3 times the Rangers play the Panthers!

Yep, apparently he has two sisters who are also great athletes.

coming into the season. Can they ring out one more playoff appearance with the group? Pittsburgh when they put their 5 best guys out there have a ton of firepower. I tend to think one makes it and one doesn't, although Buffalo and Ottawa can blow by both.

In comment 16243436 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

if it was winter I may agree with you, but no kids are staying indoors all day on Columbus Day to watch hockey. Too many other options - besides it's one of the biggest youth hockey tournament weekends of the year.

The first game I ever took my daughter to was a Columbus day game about 10 years ago. The Devils made it "kids opening day" they had all kinds of characters and contests. Brought some juice to the building at a time the Devils sure weren't. Meh who cares. The better the marketing idea the more allergic Bettman is to it any way...

has a more well rounded and deeper team (which is unusual for PIT) than TBL (without Vasilevskiy). Lars Eller is PIT 3C. Ryan Graves is sneaky add.

But I think both PIT and TBL will live and die with their stars health. You can say this about all teams and injuries are not predictable, but with both PIT and TBL they have a recent track record of injuries to their star players and they are getting older, so for them it's more of an issue IMO.

If Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Karlsson, Jarry and Guentzel play 65-70+ games each then PIT should be in the playoffs.

is awful. Missing the last Olympics probably set hockey back 5 years.

It is free marketing, the Olympics get plugged globally by everyone. they are begging for those human interest stories to be the backdrop. And it was a huge miss for the league.

they spend so much time on things like "hockey is for everyone" which is true and should be true and any type of bias in the game should be eradicated, but that money is spent on people no matter how great the game is or how much it truly is for everyone, they will never be ok with it or spend money on it. So to me that is kind of what we call in my industry table stakes but should not be your only or top priority for marketing.

PIT had a remarkably unlucky season last year and now added Karlsson. I think they're going to be pretty good this year.

.

line on the Pens.

I got a DK booster to make it basically even odds.

I think I'm going to like sports gambling on my phone being legal. lol. or I'm going to hate it.