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NFT: It is NHL Opening Day - Predictions, Notes, Discussion

pjcas18 : 10/10/2023 7:45 am


Three games today, all on ESPN.

NSH @ TBL 5:30PM
CHI @ PIT 8:00PM - Bedard debut
SEA @ LVG 10:30PM - Banner raising

Any predictions? I will share mine in the next post.
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RE: I'm not a 100% sure but this Devils beat writer runs it every game  
BillKo : 1/1/2024 1:58 pm : link
In comment 16339721 Stu11 said:
Quote:
It somehow runs simulations based on how the change would have went if the goaltending was neutral I think. Watched the game, they Devils played a terrific 47 minutes, fell apart the last 13 minutes or so of the 2nd period and gave up 4 goals. Probably at least 2 have to be stopped. Oh well. It is what it is. Hopefully Daws can get hot.


Weren't the Devils pretty much outplayed the entire second period, and by a wide margin? Bruins actually had a few high % scoring chances they missed too.

RE: thanks for the graphic PJ..  
pjcas18 : 1/1/2024 2:12 pm : link
In comment 16342696 BillKo said:
Quote:
..some weird stuff there.

What's the Carolina love?

Why do teams with lower overall % to make playoffs actually have higher chances to advance in deeper rounds?


Only thing I can think is their model feels like the Rangers have overachieved and the Canes have underachieved and in the playoffs that gets sorted out.

I disagree though. I think NYR are more playoff built than CAR. And no one knows what happens at the deadline (for either team) or injuries rest of the way.

Health may matter. NYR still one of the healthier teams in the league - though losing Chytil and Kakko matters, and CAR just got their best player back and he's been dominant.

Both goalies  
pjcas18 : 1/1/2024 3:09 pm : link
cleared waivers and can be assigned to the AHL. Have to admit I thought Samsonov would be a Russian threesome with Sheterskin and Sorokin. Samsonov a couple years younger but he had at least as good a pedigree from what I remember. None was as highly regarded as Askarov. Let's see how he turns out.

PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
·
Dec 31, 2023
Waivers today:

Eric Comrie #LetsGoBuffalo, $1.8M - UFA

Ilya Samsonov #LeafsForever, $3.55M -UFA
Pacioretty  
pjcas18 : 1/3/2024 4:38 pm : link
to make Caps (yes Caps) debut tonight.
With injuries to Palat & Timo  
Stu11 : 1/3/2024 7:16 pm : link
The Devils actually called up a real prospect in Graeme Clarke...only to sit him of course in favor of the powerhouse career AHL 4th line of Bastain-Tierney- Smith. Lindy gonna Lindy. Phew I was scared we actually might get a goal out of the 4th line for the first time in about 2 months.
RE: With injuries to Palat & Timo  
Jay on the Island : 1/4/2024 10:03 am : link
In comment 16345759 Stu11 said:
Quote:
The Devils actually called up a real prospect in Graeme Clarke...only to sit him of course in favor of the powerhouse career AHL 4th line of Bastain-Tierney- Smith. Lindy gonna Lindy. Phew I was scared we actually might get a goal out of the 4th line for the first time in about 2 months.

How dare you suggest the great Brendan Smith sit! It makes absolutely no sense to call up Clarke only to sit him especially to play 7 defensemen.
Though it's hard to complain  
Stu11 : 1/4/2024 10:35 am : link
When the Jack/Bratt line does nothing 5v5 and we still score 6. The Nico-Mercer combo was on fire. After an ice cold start Mercer has really heated up. McLeod with 2 more goals. He really has developed into a valuable piece. Leading the NHL in faceoff % and on pace for 20 goals and around 40 points. Rumors over the weekend had teams asking about him and the Devils maybe dealing him for defensive help which makes no sense to me. He's one of the Devs best defensive fwds. Holtz with another strong game as well. If we deal a young fwd. for goaltending/defensive help it should be Holtz because he's never gonna get a real shot here.
Habs lose  
pjcas18 : 1/4/2024 7:19 pm : link
Dvorak for the season with a torn pec. this is ridiculous now. Dach, Newhook, and Dvorak all out - the history of injuries for MTL is insane.

RE: Habs lose  
Jay on the Island : 1/4/2024 7:24 pm : link
In comment 16347013 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Dvorak for the season with a torn pec. this is ridiculous now. Dach, Newhook, and Dvorak all out - the history of injuries for MTL is insane.

I feel bad for you. Montreal has suffered a ridiculous number of injuries over the past two seasons. Between them and the Giants you must feel snake bitten. At least Montreal is rebuilding so losing players just helps their chances of landing a top 3 pick.
RE: Though it's hard to complain  
Jay on the Island : 1/4/2024 7:29 pm : link
In comment 16346212 Stu11 said:
Quote:
When the Jack/Bratt line does nothing 5v5 and we still score 6. The Nico-Mercer combo was on fire. After an ice cold start Mercer has really heated up. McLeod with 2 more goals. He really has developed into a valuable piece. Leading the NHL in faceoff % and on pace for 20 goals and around 40 points. Rumors over the weekend had teams asking about him and the Devils maybe dealing him for defensive help which makes no sense to me. He's one of the Devs best defensive fwds. Holtz with another strong game as well. If we deal a young fwd. for goaltending/defensive help it should be Holtz because he's never gonna get a real shot here.

McLeod is having a career year but I have no problem with them selling high if it means a good defensive DMan or a goaltender is coming to NJ. Obviously McLeod isn't the centerpiece but he does have significantly more value than any time in his career.

As for Holtz I would hate to deal him now unless it was to solve the issues in net. Hopefully he will get his shot soon because Ruff is let go. I would be happy to see the Devils send Vanecek, Palat, and Holtz to Anaheim for Gibson and Henrique. Use the cap saving from Henrique hitting free agency after the season to extend Toffoli.
RE: RE: Habs lose  
pjcas18 : 1/5/2024 7:43 am : link
In comment 16347017 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 16347013 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Dvorak for the season with a torn pec. this is ridiculous now. Dach, Newhook, and Dvorak all out - the history of injuries for MTL is insane.



I feel bad for you. Montreal has suffered a ridiculous number of injuries over the past two seasons. Between them and the Giants you must feel snake bitten. At least Montreal is rebuilding so losing players just helps their chances of landing a top 3 pick.


Don't forget the Mets....

I kind of want CHI to get #1 and see Bedard and Celebrini play together.

I will say this though, I wasn't sure of the pick at the time, but man Slafkovsky is becoming an absolute beast. he is growing into his body. He is a forechecking nightmare, offensively skilled, back checks like a demon, everything is just a split second off and getting closer to clicking. You can see it happening before your eyes. He will be a good one - a build your team around this guy player.

This won't be Suzuki's team with Caufield and Slafkovsky - it will be Slafkovsky's team eventually.
RE: RE: RE: Habs lose  
Stu11 : 1/5/2024 8:26 am : link
In comment 16347222 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 16347017 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


In comment 16347013 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Dvorak for the season with a torn pec. this is ridiculous now. Dach, Newhook, and Dvorak all out - the history of injuries for MTL is insane.



I feel bad for you. Montreal has suffered a ridiculous number of injuries over the past two seasons. Between them and the Giants you must feel snake bitten. At least Montreal is rebuilding so losing players just helps their chances of landing a top 3 pick.



Don't forget the Mets....

I kind of want CHI to get #1 and see Bedard and Celebrini play together.

I will say this though, I wasn't sure of the pick at the time, but man Slafkovsky is becoming an absolute beast. he is growing into his body. He is a forechecking nightmare, offensively skilled, back checks like a demon, everything is just a split second off and getting closer to clicking. You can see it happening before your eyes. He will be a good one - a build your team around this guy player.

This won't be Suzuki's team with Caufield and Slafkovsky - it will be Slafkovsky's team eventually.

yeah it was hard to imagine Slaf not working out with his size and skill. Just took a little bit of time. I know you know it but so many people equate the NHL draft with the NBA & NFL where these guys come right in and produce their rookie years but to expect that out of 18 year olds in such a physical sport like the NHL its not realistic on a regular basis. Interesting with that draft because the Deils really wanted Slaf at #2 and listen Nemec will be a stud Dman in the NHL for over a decade I bet. As a 19 year old he already fits seamlessly. However I think a forechecking fwd with the size of Slaf would have been a perfect fit for the Devs.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Habs lose  
Jay on the Island : 1/5/2024 7:45 pm : link
In comment 16347253 Stu11 said:
Quote:

yeah it was hard to imagine Slaf not working out with his size and skill. Just took a little bit of time. I know you know it but so many people equate the NHL draft with the NBA & NFL where these guys come right in and produce their rookie years but to expect that out of 18 year olds in such a physical sport like the NHL its not realistic on a regular basis. Interesting with that draft because the Deils really wanted Slaf at #2 and listen Nemec will be a stud Dman in the NHL for over a decade I bet. As a 19 year old he already fits seamlessly. However I think a forechecking fwd with the size of Slaf would have been a perfect fit for the Devs.

It was no secret that the Devils loved Slafkovsky last year. They would have taken him if they had the #1 pick. I liked his upside alot but I was concerned about the risk factor. I wanted Cooley or Wright at 2 but I wasn't upset about Nemec as he has a very high upside and the Devils needed help on the blue line.
Devs Blackhawks has been a fight fest so far  
BH28 : 1/5/2024 8:38 pm : link
Smith takes Bedard out with a clean hit in the first and it's been chippy since.
RE: Devs Blackhawks has been a fight fest so far  
Jay on the Island : 1/5/2024 8:42 pm : link
In comment 16348082 BH28 said:
Quote:
Smith takes Bedard out with a clean hit in the first and it's been chippy since.

What the hell is Ruff doing? They called up Graeme Clarke only to bench him for two games and instead he plays Brendan Smith as the 7th Dman/ 4th line LW. Also Chris Tierney continues to play despite having 1 point in 17 games this season. Oh and Bastian continues to dress despite his poor season. I can't take this guy much longer.
Bastian has spent more time in the box this game  
BH28 : 1/5/2024 8:48 pm : link
Than on the ice.
Well Devs gut it out 4-2 but it may have come at a huge cost  
Stu11 : 1/5/2024 9:48 pm : link
Jack went down in the 3rf with a non-contact twisted knee. You just pray it's not an ACL or something like that. Nemec &Holtz has big goals. McLeod with his 2nd straight gwg.
....  
BrettNYG10 : 1/6/2024 1:07 pm : link
Bedard out 4-6 weeks with a fractured jaw.

I didn't have an issue with the hit. Unfortunate.
RE: ....  
JayBinQueens : 1/6/2024 1:48 pm : link
In comment 16348537 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Bedard out 4-6 weeks with a fractured jaw.

I didn't have an issue with the hit. Unfortunate.


Oof. Espn about to edit their schedule
RE: Well Devs gut it out 4-2 but it may have come at a huge cost  
Jay on the Island : 1/6/2024 6:19 pm : link
In comment 16348149 Stu11 said:
Quote:
Jack went down in the 3rf with a non-contact twisted knee. You just pray it's not an ACL or something like that. Nemec &Holtz has big goals. McLeod with his 2nd straight gwg.

It sounds like Jack is fine.
Scratch that  
Jay on the Island : 1/6/2024 6:21 pm : link
I have no update on Jack I mixed him up with Nico.
RE: Scratch that  
rnargi : 1/6/2024 6:55 pm : link
In comment 16348768 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
I have no update on Jack I mixed him up with Nico.


He's out tonight, still being evaluated according to Ruff. Most outlets reporting it as an upper body injury
RE: RE: Scratch that  
Jay on the Island : 1/6/2024 7:38 pm : link
In comment 16348799 rnargi said:
Quote:
In comment 16348768 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


I have no update on Jack I mixed him up with Nico.



He's out tonight, still being evaluated according to Ruff. Most outlets reporting it as an upper body injury

I'm glad it's not his knee. Hopefully its a short term thing or else the Devils are screwed.
Yeah people are surmising it's his wrist  
Stu11 : 1/6/2024 8:02 pm : link
Or maybe shoulder. Think he's gonna be out some time. I took like 4 fwds getting hurt for Clarke to make his NHL debut. Of course he's skating with career AHL'ers baby steps...
Wow  
pjcas18 : 1/6/2024 8:49 pm : link
Nylander extension coming in TOR. 8x11.5 per Elliotte
RE: Wow  
Jay on the Island : 1/6/2024 8:56 pm : link
In comment 16348918 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
Nylander extension coming in TOR. 8x11.5 per Elliotte

He's a great player but that is way too much.
RE: RE: Wow  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 7:44 am : link
In comment 16348923 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
In comment 16348918 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


Nylander extension coming in TOR. 8x11.5 per Elliotte


He's a great player but that is way too much.


I guess it's really just Tavares' money for a year. And I don't notice Tavares much but maybe that's ok on a team with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

but for that one year, if this happens they will have a ton tied up in a few players.

Matthews: 13.25M (through 2027-2028)
Nylander*: 11.5 (rumored to be 8 years)
Tavares: 11M (through 2024-2025)
Marner: 10.9M (though 2024-2025)
Rielly: 7.5M (through 2029-2030)

so at least next year that is almost $45M in 5 players. The cap is expected to be 87.5M.

So around $42M left for the other 18 contracts?

Talk about being top heavy - and having no goalie which has kind of been their Achilles heel.

They do get some relief in 2025, but that comes at the cost of possibly losing Marner (and Tavares). I think Tavares they'd be ok letting go at 34/35 whatever he'll be but Marner is in his prime. All their LTIR (AFAIK) goes away after this year (Matt Murray, Jake Muzzin, John Klingberg - all UFA's after the season) so it's not even like they can exceed the cap next year (without accruing new LTIR)
sorry  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 7:51 am : link
that's $54M in those 5 players.

The cap is expected to be 87.5M.

So around $33M left for the other 18 contracts?
Sounds like  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 8:14 am : link
the Devils lost Siegenthaler to a broken foot. He'll be out a while.

that team is taking some lumps.

RE: Sounds like  
Stu11 : 1/7/2024 9:44 am : link
In comment 16349138 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
the Devils lost Siegenthaler to a broken foot. He'll be out a while.

that team is taking some lumps.

Yeah it's been a rough week injury wise. Sounds like a according to Elliot Friedman they don't anticipate Jack needing surgery for whatever UB injury he has. It really is a joke how they treat divulging injury info. They were uncharacteristic for them pretty quick in both Siegenthaler and Dougie's case as they were both the most serious so it leads me to believe that Jack's isn't nearly as serious.
RE: RE: Sounds like  
pjcas18 : 1/7/2024 9:47 am : link
In comment 16349210 Stu11 said:
Quote:
In comment 16349138 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


the Devils lost Siegenthaler to a broken foot. He'll be out a while.

that team is taking some lumps.



Yeah it's been a rough week injury wise. Sounds like a according to Elliot Friedman they don't anticipate Jack needing surgery for whatever UB injury he has. It really is a joke how they treat divulging injury info. They were uncharacteristic for them pretty quick in both Siegenthaler and Dougie's case as they were both the most serious so it leads me to believe that Jack's isn't nearly as serious.


In hockey it had been tradition to not reveal the injury when its one that the opponent can target. the only exceptions I have seen to this are in the modern era and concussions and maybe for the same reason - amongst gentleman you may avoid the head of someone concussed, but separated shoulder, broken bone in the hand, collar bone, broken jaw, nose, etc they're coming after you.

I think it's just more habit now than anything else.
I know it's a hockey thing with the injuries  
Stu11 : 1/7/2024 10:41 am : link
But the Devils take it to the next level with divulging nothing unless it's season threatening. Quinn also said "it's not as bad as it looked" well it didn't look that bad lol so I'm not sure what that even means.
Nylander  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2024 1:18 pm : link
official.

8 years x11.5.

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
8x$11.5M. Key details: $69M in bonuses and $27M of contract paid in first two years

RE: Nylander  
Stu11 : 1/8/2024 1:48 pm : link
In comment 16353119 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
official.

8 years x11.5.

Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
8x$11.5M. Key details: $69M in bonuses and $27M of contract paid in first two years

Full NMC for the life of the deal too. That's a big gulp.
Big trade IMO  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2024 7:34 pm : link
TSN Hockey
@TSNHockey
#TradeCentre ALERT - The Philadelphia Flyers have acquired defenceman Jamie Drysdale and a 2025 second-round draft pick from the Anaheim Ducks in exchange for forward Cutter Gauthier:
I guess this explains  
pjcas18 : 1/8/2024 7:36 pm : link
it. Under the circumstances I get PHI did ok, but man Gauthier looked good at the WJC.


Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
Wowzers. This is one we get to look back on in 10 years and re-examine.
As @frank_seravalli
said, Gauthier didn’t want to sign with the Flyers and I’m told wouldn’t meet with the Flyers front office to let them explain their plan. Flyers made best of it given those circumstances.
Wow.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/8/2024 10:17 pm : link
I'm surprised. Makes no sense to me? He was amazing during the WJCs.
Drysdale has a hard time getting on the ice  
Stu11 : 1/9/2024 8:15 am : link
but he was a top 10 pick just a few years ago and has promise. Under the circumstances I guess they did the best they could do before it really got out how opposed he was to signing there. Gautier is already climbing up my favorite list by the second lol. Anaheim sure has an interesting group of young fwds they are developing.
The big thing  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 8:21 am : link
is Gauthier saying he wouldn't play for Philly it sounds like.

Not sure why.
.....  
BrettNYG10 : 1/9/2024 10:59 am : link
Flyers are acting like petulant children over this, lol.

I think more players should demand trades. Rangers have had three first rounders ask to leave over the past decade, and I wouldn't have blamed Laf or Kakko if they asked to leave.
True  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 12:25 pm : link
but Gauthier did not sign an ELC and is a true sophomore (19 years old) on the #1 rated team in NCAA.

If he doesn't sign his ELC after this year then why sign it all? he'd be a college free agent after 1 more year and could sign anywhere. Like Vesey and others have done.

So in some regards the Flyers are being petulant, but in others they are trying to maximize the return/hedge against the loss of the #5 overall pick for nothing.
Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
Stu11 : 1/9/2024 12:38 pm : link
said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.
RE: Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 1:17 pm : link
In comment 16355999 Stu11 said:
Quote:
said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.


NHL is obviously different, but I had a high school teammate break his jaw (hit by a friendly fire wrist shot in warm ups). he didn't miss a game even with his jaw wired shut and drinking his meals through a straw). He did wear a non-contact jersey in practice and I accidentally caught him with a shoulder and re-broke his jaw and he still holds a grudge 30 years later, but my point is put a cage on and get out there (if that's what it is).
RE: RE: Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
Stu11 : 1/9/2024 1:39 pm : link
In comment 16356107 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
In comment 16355999 Stu11 said:


Quote:


said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.



NHL is obviously different, but I had a high school teammate break his jaw (hit by a friendly fire wrist shot in warm ups). he didn't miss a game even with his jaw wired shut and drinking his meals through a straw). He did wear a non-contact jersey in practice and I accidentally caught him with a shoulder and re-broke his jaw and he still holds a grudge 30 years later, but my point is put a cage on and get out there (if that's what it is).

Jack was a shoulder or wrist. Bedard was a broken jaw.
RE: RE: RE: Lindy Ruff actually gave an update on Jack  
pjcas18 : 1/9/2024 1:41 pm : link
In comment 16356155 Stu11 said:
Quote:
In comment 16356107 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


In comment 16355999 Stu11 said:


Quote:


said "it would be a matter of weeks not months" will be evaluated week to week. So I guess thats good news compared to what it could have been.



NHL is obviously different, but I had a high school teammate break his jaw (hit by a friendly fire wrist shot in warm ups). he didn't miss a game even with his jaw wired shut and drinking his meals through a straw). He did wear a non-contact jersey in practice and I accidentally caught him with a shoulder and re-broke his jaw and he still holds a grudge 30 years later, but my point is put a cage on and get out there (if that's what it is).


Jack was a shoulder or wrist. Bedard was a broken jaw.


and he's 18 or 19, he should be playing.

shoulder wrist need to heel so you don't do more damage.
Well the Canucks rolled through the area over 4 days  
Stu11 : 1/10/2024 1:51 pm : link
and took the NY metro area cup. smoking the Devils, Rangers and Islanders. Thats a pretty rare achievement. They are a good team for sure.
RE: True  
BrettNYG10 : 1/10/2024 2:26 pm : link
In comment 16355960 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
but Gauthier did not sign an ELC and is a true sophomore (19 years old) on the #1 rated team in NCAA.

If he doesn't sign his ELC after this year then why sign it all? he'd be a college free agent after 1 more year and could sign anywhere. Like Vesey and others have done.

So in some regards the Flyers are being petulant, but in others they are trying to maximize the return/hedge against the loss of the #5 overall pick for nothing.


I thought some of the commentary by their management was childish. "He told us he wanted to be a Flyer, now he doesn't! He won't talk to us." It was a little Chargers-esque

I don't remember the organizations Hayes/Fox/Vesey/Wheeler spurned having a similar reaction.

My view is organizations should ask why players don't want to go there and do some self analysis.
Briere  
pjcas18 : 1/10/2024 4:08 pm : link
has been in the job for six months.

I'm sure the Flyers could/should have done some things differently but like the Rangers with Lias and Kravtsov sometimes it's the player, sometimes it's the team, sometimes it's mutual.

I don't know enough to blame anyone.

the one comment I felt like was out of line was from the executive (?) who said he's lucky hockey players wear helmets so Cutter won't suffer the JD Drew fate (baseball fans throwing batteries at his head).
RE: .....  
BillKo : 1/10/2024 4:53 pm : link
In comment 16355759 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
Flyers are acting like petulant children over this, lol.

I think more players should demand trades. Rangers have had three first rounders ask to leave over the past decade, and I wouldn't have blamed Laf or Kakko if they asked to leave.


Interesting take.

I certainly don't side w/ the player drafted. However, if you don't want to go, he should have made the Flyers aware of that......not sure if he did.
I'm a man of the people, Bill.  
BrettNYG10 : 1/10/2024 8:58 pm : link
Players have so few years to grow and develop, get chances, and maximize earnings (or overall enjoyment of their careers, whether that's money, winning, location, whatever). Use whatever leverage you have when you have it.

My understanding in this case is that he told him he wanted to be a Flyer before the draft and then told them he didn't after last year's WJC (January, about seven months after he was drafted). Do I think he handled this well? No. Do I think he should have provided an explanation and met with them? Or course.

But teams ship guys out all the time, so even though Gauthier was an asshole here, I support him asking to be traded. There's ways to do it appropriately, of course.

Also, I'm curious on what's wrong with the Flyers specifically. They seem to be trending in the right direction, Philadelphia seems like a fun city, etc. It's a little confusing to me. Kravtsov and Lundkvist's trade requests made sense (particularly the latter's), but I don't really remember the circumstances surrounding Lias's ask.
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