I see a ton of fans talking about tanking and picking early in next year's draft. And I saw this last year, the year before, and the year before. Here's my question...
If picking early gets you better players, why do the team that pick early year after year after year still suck?
Giants
Raiders
Chicago
Carolina
Arizona
And the reverse is true....
The Eagles, Cowboys, Bills, Baltimore, Kansas City, San Fran, etc. all pick low and are good year after year.
It's not where you draft. The draft is a crap-shoot. It's your culture, your QB and your coaching staff that produces winners. Tanking does NOTHING to help your team....
Two reasons.
The odds are better.
The earlier you pick the fewer teams pick before you who might take who you want.
It's kind of like insurance.
It takes time to turn that around.
The good teams have good FOs, pick the right coaches and then can fill holes with players that fit their needs.
They don’t have a QB. The idea isn’t to tank just for the sake of tanking. It’s to maximize your chances of getting the QB. It’s not guaranteed of course, QBs fail too. You have to pick the right one. But the higher you pick, the better the chances you have of having your choice. Still have to make the right choice, but it’s better than having to trade assets, including future firsts to move up. This shouldn’t be that difficult…
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in a draft than move down from a team's current position?
Two reasons.
The odds are better.
The earlier you pick the fewer teams pick before you who might take who you want.
It's kind of like insurance.
The answer is even easier.
While there are no guarantees, the draft isn't a crapshoot.
They don’t have a QB. The idea isn’t to tank just for the sake of tanking. It’s to maximize your chances of getting the QB. It’s not guaranteed of course, QBs fail too. You have to pick the right one. But the higher you pick, the better the chances you have of having your choice. Still have to make the right choice, but it’s better than having to trade assets, including future firsts to move up. This shouldn’t be that difficult…
Besides Atlanta and Oakland, all those teams have picked a qb in the 1st round very recently. The Bears and Cardinals have thrown 2 first rounders at the position.
The answer is... it's a team game and you need solid players everywhere and good coaching.
True, but one point. Eli was traded for, not a trade up. San Diego picked Eli, the Giants picked Rivers and then traded Rivers and 3 or 4 other picks(IIRC) for Eli.
They were also happy to be picking early when Chase was available.
How does that Jets win against the Rams look in 2020 right now?
This team needs a QB which can change the trajectory of the franchise similar to what Eli did in 2004. From all reports, Williams & Maye are those type of prospects.
Jones was never a franchise altering QB prospect. I believe Sy's comp was Ryan Tannehill. I'm not sure how this is even a debate.
Giants wanted Ogden. Guess who they ended up with?
Giants wanted Ogden. Guess who they ended up with?
Weird. I can only see the right side of this post
In draft years with good QB classes, where you pick really matters.
Please self ban. You're making too much sense.
If you have the right GM and team around him you can manage the risk.
This board, unfortunately, is littered with dolts who only want to draft sure things. Which is obviously impossible, but that's the suggestion.
There are a lot of variables when it comes to drafting.
But paramount is the quality of the draft especially in key positions at the top of the draft.
If there are exceptional players available in key positions available then tanking may make sense.
If the Giants believe that there are three franchise altering players available then you do not want to be drafting 4th.
In this draft if a team wants a potentially great QB, they want to draft #1-#2.
Acquiring a franchise QB changes the dynamics of the team for the next 10 years.
If this team finishes 2 and 15 they'll have their choice of rookie quarterbacks but Daboll's head coaching career is likely over. He won't be fired right away, but he'll have lost the locker room and it'll just be a matter of time.
If this team finishes 2 and 15 they'll have their choice of rookie quarterbacks but Daboll's head coaching career is likely over. He won't be fired right away, but he'll have lost the locker room and it'll just be a matter of time.
This is a good point. As fans it's easy to want the top QB, but coaches don't recover from 2-15.
Giants wanted Ogden. Guess who they ended up with?
Of course it wouldn't, at least not by this particular OP.
Tim was still in elementary school in 1996.
What would have happened if the Giants picked third that year.
Culture, QB, Coach, etc are incredibly important. Duh.
I think there is a cost to tanking in terms of culture. Whether it is worth paying for the higher picks is a reasonable question.
But the OP's point is dumb.
In draft years with good QB classes, where you pick really matters.
We can just as easily throw in this year's draft. Bryce Young went over Stroud. Not to mention the Pamthers gave the Bears a haul for what appears to be the far lesser player and don't have a draft pick or a number 1 receiver because of that trade.
If this team finishes 2 and 15 they'll have their choice of rookie quarterbacks but Daboll's head coaching career is likely over. He won't be fired right away, but he'll have lost the locker room and it'll just be a matter of time.
Speaking of the locker room. You don't think the players on the team know what Jones is? You don't think they question the contract? You don't think they have friends on other teams where they mock Jones?
You don't think they'll be excited to play with Caleb Williams, a highly touted freak?
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of Big Blue Banter on winning meaningless games and top picks: How would the Jets look today with Trevor Lawrence at QB instead of Zach Wilson?
In draft years with good QB classes, where you pick really matters.
We can just as easily throw in this year's draft. Bryce Young went over Stroud. Not to mention the Pamthers gave the Bears a haul for what appears to be the far lesser player and don't have a draft pick or a number 1 receiver because of that trade.
That's an example of a team getting it wrong, at least based on early returns. That doesn't mean it's not an advantage to hold the highest pick possible.
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It’s a high risk selection process where the odds of drafting a successful player increase the sooner you select.
Please self ban. You're making too much sense.
If you have the right GM and team around him you can manage the risk.
This board, unfortunately, is littered with dolts who only want to draft sure things. Which is obviously impossible, but that's the suggestion.
so true. it's way beneath you, here. perhaps you should spend all your time on twitter where you could be among your intellectual equals.
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of Big Blue Banter on winning meaningless games and top picks: How would the Jets look today with Trevor Lawrence at QB instead of Zach Wilson?
In draft years with good QB classes, where you pick really matters.
We can just as easily throw in this year's draft. Bryce Young went over Stroud. Not to mention the Pamthers gave the Bears a haul for what appears to be the far lesser player and don't have a draft pick or a number 1 receiver because of that trade.
You think maybe the Panthers in hindsight wish they had finished with a worse record so they didn’t have to give up next years number 1 to move up?
This idea that higher picks aren’t better than lower picks is mind boggling. And I’ve noticed almost all of those twisting themselves into pretzels on this thread and dismissing the advantages of having the higher pick are almost all incessant defenders of Daniel Jones.
Ending up with the 8th pick and running it back with Jones again sounds like a wonderful outcome….
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In comment 16282536 Tony in Tampa said:
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of Big Blue Banter on winning meaningless games and top picks: How would the Jets look today with Trevor Lawrence at QB instead of Zach Wilson?
In draft years with good QB classes, where you pick really matters.
We can just as easily throw in this year's draft. Bryce Young went over Stroud. Not to mention the Pamthers gave the Bears a haul for what appears to be the far lesser player and don't have a draft pick or a number 1 receiver because of that trade.
You think maybe the Panthers in hindsight wish they had finished with a worse record so they didn’t have to give up next years number 1 to move up?
This idea that higher picks aren’t better than lower picks is mind boggling. And I’ve noticed almost all of those twisting themselves into pretzels on this thread and dismissing the advantages of having the higher pick are almost all incessant defenders of Daniel Jones.
Ending up with the 8th pick and running it back with Jones again sounds like a wonderful outcome….
They still fucked up the pick when their appeared to be a better qb. We can give many examples to counter the tank job. Mitchell Trubisky went before Mahomes is another.
Schoen and Dabes are about to get a real taste of New York in the next 2 months. Humiliation starts this Sunday. They're going to get embarrassed again by Dallas. Yet, they'll keep running DeVito out there who is in miles over his head. Every talking head show, every radio show, podcasts, social media ..... it's already begun, they are laughing at the Giants. They are a joke. It's a short fall from all that ridicule to people calling for the coach's head. I don't know if Schoen and Dabes know what they're in for. If they don't compete it's going to get ugly quickly. We've seen this how many times?
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and picture a Bill Parcells team going out for 2 months and losing on purpose .... and I just can't see it. Those Giants would fight to the bitter end for every win.
If this team finishes 2 and 15 they'll have their choice of rookie quarterbacks but Daboll's head coaching career is likely over. He won't be fired right away, but he'll have lost the locker room and it'll just be a matter of time.
This is a good point. As fans it's easy to want the top QB, but coaches don't recover from 2-15.
This 100%. I want Dabs to be successful and here for a long time. These next 8 weeks are going to be brutal. Everyone constantly nipping at the coaches and players. People want to pretend that the previous season has no bearing on the next but it is not true. Dabs starts on the hot seat - airly or unfairly. Lose the first cpl games and it's a crucible again.
If they find a guy they love and it requires a trade up, so be it. This team needs to play well and show improvement down the stretch and win some games.
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Schoen, nor Dabes, are attached to DJ. They can easily claim Mara made them do it (Johnny: "We've done everything possible to screw up this kid since he's been here.") They can actually lengthen their careers here by re-setting with another QB; they'll have more leeway with a new signal-caller. As for losing the locker room, well, winning will cure everything, doesn't it? Schoen will get rid of more Getts losers anyway this offseason. Coaching can talk to management (or the other way around), and management can talk to ownership about things. Look at the big picture and don't miss the forest for the trees. We don't have to be so overt in our tanking. Strategically hold key guys for 'injuries', let the other scrubs play their little hearts out, but never lose sight of the big picture. Schoen and Dabes need to be focusing on the long game here.
Schoen and Dabes are about to get a real taste of New York in the next 2 months. Humiliation starts this Sunday. They're going to get embarrassed again by Dallas. Yet, they'll keep running DeVito out there who is in miles over his head. Every talking head show, every radio show, podcasts, social media ..... it's already begun, they are laughing at the Giants. They are a joke. It's a short fall from all that ridicule to people calling for the coach's head. I don't know if Schoen and Dabes know what they're in for. If they don't compete it's going to get ugly quickly. We've seen this how many times?
Listening to the 2-6 show in Boston, they rate teams. One of the host said that the Giants might be the worst team he has ever seen.
That's beyond question- for reasonable people. but it doesn't matter. Jones had to come back and play the team out of a top 10 pick, and he got hurt. It sucks, but that's the way it goes.
The draft is much more like poker. You asses your hand (scouting) and make your bet (draft selection) based on that. Picking 1OA is like getting Ace King in the pocket. But as the flop, draw, and river come (developing that draft pick) sometimes you just end up with high card Ace and lose.
Not every hand is a winning hand, but calling it a crapshoot implies there's absolutely no skill involved by the front office and that talent is randomly distributed through all 7 rounds.
Jax sucked for years, gets Lawrence - playoff team
Houston sucked for years, gets Stroud and now they are a .500 team trending up
The Colts sucked for Luck and became a playoff team again once they got him,
Giants, sucked for Eli, became a perennial contender once they got him.
Obviously the draft isn’t a perfect science, but if you believe Williams and Maye are what the scouts are saying they are, then they will completely alter the trajectory of this franchise. The teams you mentioned all missed out on QB’s or didn’t pick the right one. Sure it’s a crapshoot, but odds of getting a great QB are much higher when you pick near the top of the draft.
This idea that higher picks aren’t better than lower picks is mind boggling. And I’ve noticed almost all of those twisting themselves into pretzels on this thread and dismissing the advantages of having the higher pick are almost all incessant defenders of Daniel Jones.
Ending up with the 8th pick and running it back with Jones again sounds like a wonderful outcome….
I'm not even going to deride them by calling them the "DJFC" but it would be interesting if we polled that group of posters anonymously and see how many of them actually want the Giants to end up out of the running for the top 2 QBs.
As for the others, making bad QB picks will set you back (and yes, that includes the Giants). Get that right and it’s remarkable how quickly your win totals change.
and, pro-Jones retention. Spitooey.
what does this mean?
Jax sucked for years, gets Lawrence - playoff team
Houston sucked for years, gets Stroud and now they are a .500 team trending up
The Colts sucked for Luck and became a playoff team again once they got him,
Giants, sucked for Eli, became a perennial contender once they got him.
Obviously the draft isn’t a perfect science, but if you believe Williams and Maye are what the scouts are saying they are, then they will completely alter the trajectory of this franchise. The teams you mentioned all missed out on QB’s or didn’t pick the right one. Sure it’s a crapshoot, but odds of getting a great QB are much higher when you pick near the top of the draft.
Of the 16 QBs who went no. 1 overall since 1994, only 7 can be considered "franchise" QBs, and fewer became top 5 guys. The scouts said Jemarcus Russell was one of the best QB prospects in a decade. A sure franchise QB. Here's a sampling of comments before the draft.
"The workout Russell had was Star Wars. It was unbelievable." Then-Tampa Bay Bucs coach Jon Gruden
"The film that we've watched has impressed more and more. The guy can wing it but seems to have that real feel for the game, and a presence. He looks like he could come into any system and be ready.'' -- Then-Detroit Lions coach Rod Marinelli
"I can't remember being in such awe of a quarterback in my decade of attending combines and pro days. Russell's passing session was the most impressive of all the pro days I've been to. His footwork for such a big quarterback was surprising. He was nimble in his dropbacks, rolling out and throwing on the run. The ball just explodes out of his hands." -- ESPN's Todd McShay
"JaMarcus Russell, my man. The Raiders finally get their big arm. And he's a good kid, strong kid, smart kid. He'll be a big-time player. If I'm the Raiders, that's who I pick. That's pretty easy." -- FOX's Terry Bradshaw