Several threads have brought up the scenario of Caleb Williams and Drake Maye being off the Board when the Giants pick, so the thought is that maybe the Giants should take the very best wide receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and then use draft capital to move back up into the second half of Round One for a QB.
At one level, the issue could be moot since the odds are now very high the Giants will be able to snag one of the above QBs. And at another level, every draft is different, and the past may not apply to what promises to be a strong 2024 QB class.
In any event, here are all the QBs taken in the second half of Round One since 2000. There are a couple of notable HOFers (Drew Brews, Aaron Rodgers), one current very high-performer (Lamar Jackson) and a couple of "good" to "very good" QBs (Chad Pennington, Joe Flacco.) So, that comes to 5 QBs out of 20 = 25% hit rate:
Year/Pick/QB
2000/ 18/ Pennington, Chad
2001/ 32/ Brees, Drew
2002/ 32/ Ramsey, Patrick
2003/ 19/ Boller, Kyle
2003/ 22/ Grossman, Rex
2004/ 22/ Losman, J.P.
2005/ 24/ Rodgers, Aaron
2005/ 25/ Campbell, Jason
2007/ 22/ Quinn, Brady
2008/ 18/ Flacco, Joe
2009/ 17/ Freeman, Josh
2010/ 25/ Tebow, Tim
2012/ 22/ Weeden, Brandon
2013/ 16/ Manuel, EJ
2014/ 22/ Manziel, Johnny
2014/ 32/ Bridgewater, Teddy
2016/ 26/ Lynch, Paxton
2018/ 32/ Jackson, Lamar
2020/ 26/ Love, Jordan
2022/ 20/ Pickett, Kenny
If 4 QB's are taken in RD 1 then a look at the ones taken higher vs lower is in order. if only 1 QB goes in Rd 1 and it is the second half of RD 1 you already had a look at a position that was weak heading into the draft.
Now- if you look at QB's taken in RD 1 period and look at their hit rate, then compare it to QB's taken at the top of RD 1 (with the top5/10 picks), now you have a bit more of a real look at success or no success.
Now with all that being said we need to get one of the highly rated QB's coming out as we do not have a QB who can lead this team to new heights..
If 4 QB's are taken in RD 1 then a look at the ones taken higher vs lower is in order. if only 1 QB goes in Rd 1 and it is the second half of RD 1 you already had a look at a position that was weak heading into the draft.
Now- if you look at QB's taken in RD 1 period and look at their hit rate, then compare it to QB's taken at the top of RD 1 (with the top5/10 picks), now you have a bit more of a real look at success or no success.
Now with all that being said we need to get one of the highly rated QB's coming out as we do not have a QB who can lead this team to new heights..
Exactly... I was too lazy to do that analysis, but I'lll try to get to it later on. I'll take the Top 10.
You pay your GM and his people to identify a player who can be a quality starter, and you pay your coaches to get the most out of them. A guy picked by the Jets 15 years ago tells you nothing about a guy you are drafting this year.
I have seen a lot of these exercises over the past few weeks and I am not sure what they are saying. QB is a tough pick to get right, and the longer you wait the harder it gets? I think everyone would agree with that conclusion already.
You pay your GM and his people to identify a player who can be a quality starter, and you pay your coaches to get the most out of them. A guy picked by the Jets 15 years ago tells you nothing about a guy you are drafting this year.
I have seen a lot of these exercises over the past few weeks and I am not sure what they are saying. QB is a tough pick to get right, and the longer you wait the harder it gets? I think everyone would agree with that conclusion already.
25% hit rate is just a calculation, nothing more, nothing less. Certainly not predicative. Just gives an historical perspective of QBs that made it in the league having been picked in second half of first round.
Interesting question. I don’t think the stats sway me one way or the other. But I did have a crazy thought / scenario: Giants select a QB with the first or second pick and then circle back and snag Cameron Ward later on (2nd or 3rd round.) I guess this falls under the rubric — you just never know when it comes to QB and if both did well, not a bad situation to be in!