PCA wasn't very good at the time we traded him, so we traded him. But if the Mets didn't think he was very good, why did they just draft him in the 1st round? And what, in the 6 games where he played for the organization and had a .417 BA and 1.063 made them change their organizational assessment of him?
I get PCA has developed more power with the Cubs than he was projected to when he was drafted. High school player develops more power as he matures. News at 11. But I don't buy Scott's narrative that PCA was some mediocre prospect that he is using to justify a truly horrendous trade.
PCA wasn't very good at the time we traded him, so we traded him. But if the Mets didn't think he was very good, why did they just draft him in the 1st round? And what, in the 6 games where he played for the organization and had a .417 BA and 1.063 made them change their organizational assessment of him?
I get PCA has developed more power with the Cubs than he was projected to when he was drafted. High school player develops more power as he matures. News at 11. But I don't buy Scott's narrative that PCA was some mediocre prospect that he is using to justify a truly horrendous trade.
He's saying they didn't think PCA was going to be a big offensive player. A GG caliber CFer still has value. The guy went 19th overall, he wasn't some top 5 pick. What he's saying is probably accurate, they didn't think PCA would hit for power and he has.
to the Cubs in a deal headlined by Christopher Morel would be one of the worst trades the Mets have made in recent history. Morel wouldn't crack my top 5 "wants" from the Cubs and I say that as someone who has more of an open mind trading Alonso than some others. Morel's essentially a slightly more versatile Vientos.
Any Alonso to Mets deal starts with Horton and getting PCA back haha.
PCA wasn't very good at the time we traded him, so we traded him. But if the Mets didn't think he was very good, why did they just draft him in the 1st round? And what, in the 6 games where he played for the organization and had a .417 BA and 1.063 made them change their organizational assessment of him?
I get PCA has developed more power with the Cubs than he was projected to when he was drafted. High school player develops more power as he matures. News at 11. But I don't buy Scott's narrative that PCA was some mediocre prospect that he is using to justify a truly horrendous trade.
He's saying they didn't think PCA was going to be a big offensive player. A GG caliber CFer still has value. The guy went 19th overall, he wasn't some top 5 pick. What he's saying is probably accurate, they didn't think PCA would hit for power and he has.
The only way the trade even made an iota of sense was if they signed Baez to a long-term deal. They didn't. It made no sense at the time with what evaluations of PCA were. An excellent CF glove with good speed, decent bat to ball ability, a good eye, and only a little bit of power. Now that he has developed more power? Even more dreadful of a trade. We know, Scott. You suck even more than we thought you did. Congrats?
wanted to sign Baez to a long term deal, Sandy made this clear.
Which would have further compounded a dreadful trade.
It would have, but you just said that's the only way it made sense. That was what they were openly hoping to do.
I said if they signed him to a long-term deal. Not if they hoped to sign him to a long-term deal. An important distinction. Like between the two following sentences: 1. I am leaving my girlfriend for Margot Robbie and 2. I am leaving my girlfriend in hopes of getting Margot Robbie.
Only way the trade made any bit of sense in the context of PCA's value as a prospect, the Mets hope of making the playoffs and doing anything meaningful, and Baez' value as a player was if they signed an extension with him. They didn't. They didn't re-sign him as a FA either. Which turns out they dodged a bullet.
I always saw PCA as a Nimmo type with more speed and a better glove. Nimmo developed more power as he went on in his career. Not crazy to think PCA might do the same. Regardless, even without the power boost, PCA was a very valuable prospect and shouldn't have been traded for a rental of a player like Baez in a season like that.
even less when you consider they knew deGrom was likely done for the year (like most of us feared)
Baez was going to be FA even trading your #5 or #6 whatever it said prospect for the chance to negotiate directly with Baez was a price too steep for a team not contending.
Sort of like a worse version of the Leonard Williams trade the Giants made.
The only good news is Baez has been so bad in his two years with DET it's good they f-ed up and didn't sign him long-term.
wanted to sign Baez to a long term deal, Sandy made this clear.
Which would have further compounded a dreadful trade.
It would have, but you just said that's the only way it made sense. That was what they were openly hoping to do.
I said if they signed him to a long-term deal. Not if they hoped to sign him to a long-term deal. An important distinction. Like between the two following sentences: 1. I am leaving my girlfriend for Margot Robbie and 2. I am leaving my girlfriend in hopes of getting Margot Robbie.
Only way the trade made any bit of sense in the context of PCA's value as a prospect, the Mets hope of making the playoffs and doing anything meaningful, and Baez' value as a player was if they signed an extension with him. They didn't. They didn't re-sign him as a FA either. Which turns out they dodged a bullet.
I always saw PCA as a Nimmo type with more speed and a better glove. Nimmo developed more power as he went on in his career. Not crazy to think PCA might do the same. Regardless, even without the power boost, PCA was a very valuable prospect and shouldn't have been traded for a rental of a player like Baez in a season like that.
Steve Cohen 100% could have outbid the Tigers, the Mets decided not to do so, and offered him a reported 40 million below what the Cubs did. They decided they didn't want him back, he would still be a Met right now if the did.
Margot Robbie example is completely absurd. The Mets given the money of the owner 99.9% could have brought back Baez if they wanted to. Your example doesn't have such a locked in outcome.
if baez continued playing the way he did as a met multi-year
that wouldn't have been a good trade? he had an .886 ops as a met and at age 28 put up a 4 fwar season - which was his 3rd 4+ fwar full season in a row. his age 25 and age 26 all star seasons were actually better. the only down year was the shortened age 27 2020 covid partial season.
obviously he went off a cliff so it turned out to be a blessing in disguise but that wasnt exactly glaringly obvious at the time. which is why he got paid $140m.
RE: if baez continued playing the way he did as a met multi-year
that wouldn't have been a good trade? he had an .886 ops as a met and at age 28 put up a 4 fwar season - which was his 3rd 4+ fwar full season in a row. his age 25 and age 26 all star seasons were actually better. the only down year was the shortened age 27 2020 covid partial season.
obviously he went off a cliff so it turned out to be a blessing in disguise but that wasnt exactly glaringly obvious at the time. which is why he got paid $140m.
but he was a pending FA, unless you had some advantage of acquiring him that made it more likely he'd sign with you, why trade any prospects in a dead season?
especially with you have Cohen's wallet behind you and can outbid anyone making the decision easier.
is the deadline to tender contracts. Does Vogey go?
id be pretty shocked if he's not gone. the opportunity cost of the roster spot isn't worth a mediocre hitter even at a cheap price if he cant play anywhere in the field.
stearns mentioned that they want to give young players chances but its unrealistic to expect all of them to be ready for those chances right away, which is 100% right. they need to have some veteran options who can play in the field if necessary. your justin turner idea is a great example of that, or perhaps one of the OF/DH options like gurriel or soler.
they need to get right the versatile roster construction eppler talked about (but couldn't deliver).
Margot Robbie example is completely absurd. The Mets given the money of the owner 99.9% could have brought back Baez if they wanted to. Your example doesn't have such a locked in outcome.
And that's the entire point. They didn't deem Baez worthy enough to keep around for more than a rental at the price he got. Why give up an asset like PCA for a rental when they were on the ropes anyway? Scott seem to be saying it was ok because they didn't think PCA would have the power he developed. Wrong. It was a bad trade then. Looking back it was a much worse trade. It was never justified for a rental, regardless of Scott's failed evaluations of PCA
Margot Robbie example is completely absurd. The Mets given the money of the owner 99.9% could have brought back Baez if they wanted to. Your example doesn't have such a locked in outcome.
And that's the entire point. They didn't deem Baez worthy enough to keep around for more than a rental at the price he got. Why give up an asset like PCA for a rental when they were on the ropes anyway? Scott seem to be saying it was ok because they didn't think PCA would have the power he developed. Wrong. It was a bad trade then. Looking back it was a much worse trade. It was never justified for a rental, regardless of Scott's failed evaluations of PCA
? It was a terrible process (and the thumbs down stuff likely didn't help) but they pretty clearly intended to bring Baez back, Sandy was on record stating as much. As for Scott's failed evaluations, he flat out said "we", Zack Scott certainly wasn't traded PCA on an island with others in the organization saying they loved him and he was a future star.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
·
2h
It was fun talking about Four Rings, Yankees analytics, Carlos Mendoza, and what goes into a deadline deal like the Baez trade. Happy to answer questions asked in the comments. #Mets #Yankees #RedSox
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Baseball Isn’t Boring
@BBisntBoring
·
4h
Morning podcast: Just outstanding stuff from @ZackScottSports talking @FourRingsSports, team-building, Cashman's take on the Yankees' analytics world, managerial candidates and the inside story for one big Mets trade.
Listen: https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/42D75/traffic.megaphone.fm/CAD4289359628.mp3?updated=1700140387
Win: http://Fanduel.com/boring
Show more
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
1h
Hey @ZackScottSports
, just listened and didn’t hear an answer to my question. How close were you to this bigger trade with the Cubs? Who was the major leaguer you were going to get and who was the other big Mets prospect and player you were considering dealing?
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Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
23h
Former Mets GM Zack Scott says tomorrow he will explain the reasoning behind why the Mets did the Javy Baez/Trevor Williams for PCA trade at the 2021 trade deadline. Wonder if he touches on @Ken_Rosenthal’s reporting in Aug 2021 and explains this aspect of talks as well. twitter.com/zackscottsport…
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Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Then the catchers were dropped from the concept and at one point I asked for Bryant to be added. It was clear that they liked what they had for Bryant elsewhere so that quickly went nowhere. #Cubs #Mets
RE: RE: if baez continued playing the way he did as a met multi-year
that wouldn't have been a good trade? he had an .886 ops as a met and at age 28 put up a 4 fwar season - which was his 3rd 4+ fwar full season in a row. his age 25 and age 26 all star seasons were actually better. the only down year was the shortened age 27 2020 covid partial season.
obviously he went off a cliff so it turned out to be a blessing in disguise but that wasnt exactly glaringly obvious at the time. which is why he got paid $140m.
but he was a pending FA, unless you had some advantage of acquiring him that made it more likely he'd sign with you, why trade any prospects in a dead season?
especially with you have Cohen's wallet behind you and can outbid anyone making the decision easier.
the advantage you have is knowing if cohen want to retain a player he can retain a player just like he did with nimmo/diaz. before baez signed in detroit the mets had deals with marte, escobar, canha, scherzer and may have also added gausman. they just chose to spend the $ on different players because a different gm with a different vision came in.
here were the standings the day the mets made the trade:
the guys atlanta dealt for propelled them to a WS win - soler was WS MVP - even knowing Acuna was out for the year.
texas just won a WS after being aggressive at the deadline knowing JDG was 100% out for the year.
from that day forward obviously the team collapsed and PCA's rehab/development ended up at the farthest end of the good outcome as possible for the cubs, but even there i think the loss for the mets is overstated unless he ends up on some kind of even crazier MVP-level outcome. The mets did what they had to do to extend Nimmo in CF who is probably still a more valuable player for several seasons, and if they want to go buy a 2-4 win OF'er they can easily do so almost any offseason (this one included). It just costs more $, which is something cohen is willing to do. PCA's prospects of succeeding right away probably aren't different than Baty's were at this time a year ago so while you hate to give up any asset for what amounted to very little, there's a good amount of prospect shine on him that will be gone as quickly as it was with kelenic if the 30% k-rate doesn't improve.
"There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
"
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
I polled our deadline room on Baez vs Bryant and it was an exact 50-50 split. I preferred Baez because Lindor was injured at the time, he gave us a more versatile roster (e.g., McNeil could go to OF if needed), and I thought he would handle NY better.
"There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
"
It was PCA and "another top prospect". I'm guessing it was Mauricio. There were rumors of Contreras for Mauricio.
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Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Then the catchers were dropped from the concept and at one point I asked for Bryant to be added. It was clear that they liked what they had for Bryant elsewhere so that quickly went nowhere. #Cubs #Mets
wow that would have been a massive deal.
i think that return would have had to have been (alvarez?).
clearly they dropped to an at the time lesser prospect in PCA for a lesser return.
Kimbrel brough back madrigal by himself, so Baez + Kimbrel + Contreras would have been something a lot more valuable than PCA which is probably alvarez.
BA's top mets prospects updated after the deadline were:
"There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
"
It was PCA and "another top prospect". I'm guessing it was Mauricio. There were rumors of Contreras for Mauricio.
i think it had to be alvarez. mets were getting back contreras under control for 2 years and kimbrel who brought back madrigal, who by himself was probably a better prospect than mauricio at that point in time.
madrigal was a consensus top 40 prospect pre-2021, #12 on BP, and hitting .305 for CWS in the big leagues when dealt.
mauricio was a consensus top 100 prospect but not top 50 on any list. alvarez was top 50 on BA and pipeline.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
had 1 year of control left, 2022 was his final season with the Cubs
the 2 years were 2021/2022. the meaning was just that unlike kimbrel (who cost madrigal) and baez (who cost pca), contreras wasnt a rental. so to get all 3 would have been a significant price.
had 1 year of control left, 2022 was his final season with the Cubs
the 2 years were 2021/2022. the meaning was just that unlike kimbrel (who cost madrigal) and baez (who cost pca), contreras wasnt a rental. so to get all 3 would have been a significant price.
The trade was consummated 7/30/2021, that's not 2 seasons of control. 2 seasons of control would be the Mets adding a player now, signed through 2025.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
this seems like a contradiction, unless he's saying the trade was entirely his choosing but he felt compelled to have to make a big trade?
others may disagree but i dont think it was unfair that he was pushed to do something significant. they were 5 games up, had Carrasco set to debut as a Met, Walker had made the ASG, Stroman/Megill pitched well in July, the hope of syndergaard (who came back) and jdg (who didnt but said he could have pitched postseason) - it obviously just all blew up. very different situation from being under .500, 10 games back of wild card and almost 20 back in division like this year.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
this seems like a contradiction, unless he's saying the trade was entirely his choosing but he felt compelled to have to make a big trade?
others may disagree but i dont think it was unfair that he was pushed to do something significant. they were 5 games up, had Carrasco set to debut as a Met, Walker had made the ASG, Stroman/Megill pitched well in July, the hope of syndergaard (who came back) and jdg (who didnt but said he could have pitched postseason) - it obviously just all blew up. very different situation from being under .500, 10 games back of wild card and almost 20 back in division like this year.
Sort of touches on that here.
"Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
I polled our deadline room on Baez vs Bryant and it was an exact 50-50 split. I preferred Baez because Lindor was injured at the time, he gave us a more versatile roster (e.g., McNeil could go to OF if needed), and I thought he would handle NY better."
had 1 year of control left, 2022 was his final season with the Cubs
the 2 years were 2021/2022. the meaning was just that unlike kimbrel (who cost madrigal) and baez (who cost pca), contreras wasnt a rental. so to get all 3 would have been a significant price.
The trade was consummated 7/30/2021, that's not 2 seasons of control. 2 seasons of control would be the Mets adding a player now, signed through 2025.
lets not do the pedantic thing, the nomenclature around that is always inconsistent. I didnt say he had 2 more seasons of control i said he had 2 seasons of control, which technically they would have gotten. control of contreras in 2 seasons not 1. yes 1.5 would have been a more accurate way of saying it.
I wasn't trying to be snarky. If you trade for a player at the deadline who has 1 year remaining usually people say that, they don't say you traded for a player with "2 seasons" left.
like Zack Scott is talking a lot. I wonder how people still employed will react to this. Not sure if he has any desire to get back involved with a franchise, but I doubt that they would be happy with the glimpse into the sausage making.
am I wrong on this and people don't care or would they think he's over-sharing.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
this seems like a contradiction, unless he's saying the trade was entirely his choosing but he felt compelled to have to make a big trade?
others may disagree but i dont think it was unfair that he was pushed to do something significant. they were 5 games up, had Carrasco set to debut as a Met, Walker had made the ASG, Stroman/Megill pitched well in July, the hope of syndergaard (who came back) and jdg (who didnt but said he could have pitched postseason) - it obviously just all blew up. very different situation from being under .500, 10 games back of wild card and almost 20 back in division like this year.
Sort of touches on that here.
"Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
I polled our deadline room on Baez vs Bryant and it was an exact 50-50 split. I preferred Baez because Lindor was injured at the time, he gave us a more versatile roster (e.g., McNeil could go to OF if needed), and I thought he would handle NY better."
i thought he made the right decision between those 2 (and baez did perform).
it's weird but the not discussed enough poison pill of 2021/2023 was Carrasco.
1-5 with a 6 era in his 12 starts 2nd half 2021.
3-8 with a near 7 era in his 20 starts this year.
in 2021 they rushed him back without rehab starts and i guess last year he was decent but he was an almost auto-L every 5th day in the 2 parts of years where they massively underperformed. obviously wasnt just him but had he been just league average either year could have turned out differently.
like Zack Scott is talking a lot. I wonder how people still employed will react to this. Not sure if he has any desire to get back involved with a franchise, but I doubt that they would be happy with the glimpse into the sausage making.
am I wrong on this and people don't care or would they think he's over-sharing.
Got a ring with the Rangers and Stearns reached out to him before taking the Mets job so I don't think it's going to impact him much at all. He's stated he won't trades involving players who ended up not being traded/are still with the team that didn't trade them.
I wasn't trying to be snarky. If you trade for a player at the deadline who has 1 year remaining usually people say that, they don't say you traded for a player with "2 seasons" left.
thats because it is most commonly phrased in present tense moments so it makes the most sense to say "x more years of control".
we are talking about it retroactively so i was summing up how many total years the mets would have received. the precise number was 1.5 seasons (or 1.333) i imprecisely said "2" because bbi isnt the wsj and i didnt think i needed to use decimals.
yet to see him say anything particularly critical about anyone tbh, which is probably by design. Has only said positive things about guys like Mendoza (who he interviewed in Boston).
is the closest he's come to being critical and it was aimed at Heyman for saying the Mets should have hired somebody else
"Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Bad take. After 2020, Carlos was one of 3 finalists in Boston before we brought Alex Cora back. We spoke to 10 candidates with no ML managerial experience, and he was by far the most prepared to be a manager on day 1. Good hire! #NYM #Mets #Yankees #RedSox"
he's also running his own business so its promotion
he mentioned on the podcast he considers jobs back in leagues but for now it sounds like he's open to consulting on a pretty wide range of things and these types of things (along with twitter) are probably his primary means of getting his name out there beyond his existing network.
Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
My guesses are Gott, Alonso, Smith, Guillorme, Lucchesi, Peterson and Stewart are all tendered and the rest are non-tendered. Guillorme is the one I'm least confident will be tendered.
Anyone have a link to the interview, I'd be curious to hear it
metZZ 1986🛜
@bkfan09
Add another interesting prospect to keep an eye on in 2024 , Acosta coming back from injury at the end of the DSL season , Went 4-4 in today’s Rangers vs. Mets instructs , now the game means nothing but it’s good to see him heathy
Loose lips sink ships — or, in this case, MLB teams’ chances of signing Shohei Ohtani.
Teams pursuing the top free agent — such as the Mets and perhaps the Yankees — have been informed that leaks will hurt their chances of bringing home the two-way superstar.
“If visits between Ohtani and a team are reported publicly, it will be held against the team, so the circles will be tiny and tight,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported.
WFAN host Greg Giannotti had a more sinister theory, though, about the awkward delivery and what may have caused it.
“I have heard, I have been told, that Gary, Keith, and Ron over the last number of years are never down talking to the players anymore.” Giannotti said earlier this week on “Boomer and Gio.”
“They don’t, and the players and the managers and the coaches, they can’t stand the fact that these guys are so popular, and they sit up there and pontificate in the booth, but they’re never down there talking to the players and they’re like bigger than life.
“My theory on this is that someone was needling Gary, Keith, and Ron and gave Mendoza that line. Because he goes, ‘Deep conversations.’ That is my take on this.”
He later added: “I just know that this past year, in particular, they were never talking to the players.”
I get PCA has developed more power with the Cubs than he was projected to when he was drafted. High school player develops more power as he matures. News at 11. But I don't buy Scott's narrative that PCA was some mediocre prospect that he is using to justify a truly horrendous trade.
I get PCA has developed more power with the Cubs than he was projected to when he was drafted. High school player develops more power as he matures. News at 11. But I don't buy Scott's narrative that PCA was some mediocre prospect that he is using to justify a truly horrendous trade.
He's saying they didn't think PCA was going to be a big offensive player. A GG caliber CFer still has value. The guy went 19th overall, he wasn't some top 5 pick. What he's saying is probably accurate, they didn't think PCA would hit for power and he has.
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to the Cubs in a deal headlined by Christopher Morel would be one of the worst trades the Mets have made in recent history. Morel wouldn't crack my top 5 "wants" from the Cubs and I say that as someone who has more of an open mind trading Alonso than some others. Morel's essentially a slightly more versatile Vientos.
Any Alonso to Mets deal starts with Horton and getting PCA back haha.
Yeah well, that's not happening lol
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PCA wasn't very good at the time we traded him, so we traded him. But if the Mets didn't think he was very good, why did they just draft him in the 1st round? And what, in the 6 games where he played for the organization and had a .417 BA and 1.063 made them change their organizational assessment of him?
I get PCA has developed more power with the Cubs than he was projected to when he was drafted. High school player develops more power as he matures. News at 11. But I don't buy Scott's narrative that PCA was some mediocre prospect that he is using to justify a truly horrendous trade.
He's saying they didn't think PCA was going to be a big offensive player. A GG caliber CFer still has value. The guy went 19th overall, he wasn't some top 5 pick. What he's saying is probably accurate, they didn't think PCA would hit for power and he has.
The only way the trade even made an iota of sense was if they signed Baez to a long-term deal. They didn't. It made no sense at the time with what evaluations of PCA were. An excellent CF glove with good speed, decent bat to ball ability, a good eye, and only a little bit of power. Now that he has developed more power? Even more dreadful of a trade. We know, Scott. You suck even more than we thought you did. Congrats?
Which would have further compounded a dreadful trade.
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wanted to sign Baez to a long term deal, Sandy made this clear.
Which would have further compounded a dreadful trade.
It would have, but you just said that's the only way it made sense. That was what they were openly hoping to do.
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In comment 16291156 DanMetroMan said:
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wanted to sign Baez to a long term deal, Sandy made this clear.
Which would have further compounded a dreadful trade.
It would have, but you just said that's the only way it made sense. That was what they were openly hoping to do.
I said if they signed him to a long-term deal. Not if they hoped to sign him to a long-term deal. An important distinction. Like between the two following sentences: 1. I am leaving my girlfriend for Margot Robbie and 2. I am leaving my girlfriend in hopes of getting Margot Robbie.
Only way the trade made any bit of sense in the context of PCA's value as a prospect, the Mets hope of making the playoffs and doing anything meaningful, and Baez' value as a player was if they signed an extension with him. They didn't. They didn't re-sign him as a FA either. Which turns out they dodged a bullet.
I always saw PCA as a Nimmo type with more speed and a better glove. Nimmo developed more power as he went on in his career. Not crazy to think PCA might do the same. Regardless, even without the power boost, PCA was a very valuable prospect and shouldn't have been traded for a rental of a player like Baez in a season like that.
Baez was going to be FA even trading your #5 or #6 whatever it said prospect for the chance to negotiate directly with Baez was a price too steep for a team not contending.
Sort of like a worse version of the Leonard Williams trade the Giants made.
The only good news is Baez has been so bad in his two years with DET it's good they f-ed up and didn't sign him long-term.
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In comment 16291160 KDavies said:
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In comment 16291156 DanMetroMan said:
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wanted to sign Baez to a long term deal, Sandy made this clear.
Which would have further compounded a dreadful trade.
It would have, but you just said that's the only way it made sense. That was what they were openly hoping to do.
I said if they signed him to a long-term deal. Not if they hoped to sign him to a long-term deal. An important distinction. Like between the two following sentences: 1. I am leaving my girlfriend for Margot Robbie and 2. I am leaving my girlfriend in hopes of getting Margot Robbie.
Only way the trade made any bit of sense in the context of PCA's value as a prospect, the Mets hope of making the playoffs and doing anything meaningful, and Baez' value as a player was if they signed an extension with him. They didn't. They didn't re-sign him as a FA either. Which turns out they dodged a bullet.
I always saw PCA as a Nimmo type with more speed and a better glove. Nimmo developed more power as he went on in his career. Not crazy to think PCA might do the same. Regardless, even without the power boost, PCA was a very valuable prospect and shouldn't have been traded for a rental of a player like Baez in a season like that.
Steve Cohen 100% could have outbid the Tigers, the Mets decided not to do so, and offered him a reported 40 million below what the Cubs did. They decided they didn't want him back, he would still be a Met right now if the did.
obviously he went off a cliff so it turned out to be a blessing in disguise but that wasnt exactly glaringly obvious at the time. which is why he got paid $140m.
obviously he went off a cliff so it turned out to be a blessing in disguise but that wasnt exactly glaringly obvious at the time. which is why he got paid $140m.
but he was a pending FA, unless you had some advantage of acquiring him that made it more likely he'd sign with you, why trade any prospects in a dead season?
especially with you have Cohen's wallet behind you and can outbid anyone making the decision easier.
id be pretty shocked if he's not gone. the opportunity cost of the roster spot isn't worth a mediocre hitter even at a cheap price if he cant play anywhere in the field.
stearns mentioned that they want to give young players chances but its unrealistic to expect all of them to be ready for those chances right away, which is 100% right. they need to have some veteran options who can play in the field if necessary. your justin turner idea is a great example of that, or perhaps one of the OF/DH options like gurriel or soler.
they need to get right the versatile roster construction eppler talked about (but couldn't deliver).
And that's the entire point. They didn't deem Baez worthy enough to keep around for more than a rental at the price he got. Why give up an asset like PCA for a rental when they were on the ropes anyway? Scott seem to be saying it was ok because they didn't think PCA would have the power he developed. Wrong. It was a bad trade then. Looking back it was a much worse trade. It was never justified for a rental, regardless of Scott's failed evaluations of PCA
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Margot Robbie example is completely absurd. The Mets given the money of the owner 99.9% could have brought back Baez if they wanted to. Your example doesn't have such a locked in outcome.
And that's the entire point. They didn't deem Baez worthy enough to keep around for more than a rental at the price he got. Why give up an asset like PCA for a rental when they were on the ropes anyway? Scott seem to be saying it was ok because they didn't think PCA would have the power he developed. Wrong. It was a bad trade then. Looking back it was a much worse trade. It was never justified for a rental, regardless of Scott's failed evaluations of PCA
? It was a terrible process (and the thumbs down stuff likely didn't help) but they pretty clearly intended to bring Baez back, Sandy was on record stating as much. As for Scott's failed evaluations, he flat out said "we", Zack Scott certainly wasn't traded PCA on an island with others in the organization saying they loved him and he was a future star.
Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
And no there aren't 16 names there, I removed the players who are already gone.
@ZackScottSports
·
2h
It was fun talking about Four Rings, Yankees analytics, Carlos Mendoza, and what goes into a deadline deal like the Baez trade. Happy to answer questions asked in the comments. #Mets #Yankees #RedSox
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Baseball Isn’t Boring
@BBisntBoring
·
4h
Morning podcast: Just outstanding stuff from @ZackScottSports talking @FourRingsSports, team-building, Cashman's take on the Yankees' analytics world, managerial candidates and the inside story for one big Mets trade.
Listen: https://pdst.fm/e/chtbl.com/track/42D75/traffic.megaphone.fm/CAD4289359628.mp3?updated=1700140387
Win: http://Fanduel.com/boring
Show more
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
1h
Hey @ZackScottSports
, just listened and didn’t hear an answer to my question. How close were you to this bigger trade with the Cubs? Who was the major leaguer you were going to get and who was the other big Mets prospect and player you were considering dealing?
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Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
23h
Former Mets GM Zack Scott says tomorrow he will explain the reasoning behind why the Mets did the Javy Baez/Trevor Williams for PCA trade at the 2021 trade deadline. Wonder if he touches on @Ken_Rosenthal’s reporting in Aug 2021 and explains this aspect of talks as well. twitter.com/zackscottsport…
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Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Then the catchers were dropped from the concept and at one point I asked for Bryant to be added. It was clear that they liked what they had for Bryant elsewhere so that quickly went nowhere. #Cubs #Mets
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that wouldn't have been a good trade? he had an .886 ops as a met and at age 28 put up a 4 fwar season - which was his 3rd 4+ fwar full season in a row. his age 25 and age 26 all star seasons were actually better. the only down year was the shortened age 27 2020 covid partial season.
obviously he went off a cliff so it turned out to be a blessing in disguise but that wasnt exactly glaringly obvious at the time. which is why he got paid $140m.
but he was a pending FA, unless you had some advantage of acquiring him that made it more likely he'd sign with you, why trade any prospects in a dead season?
especially with you have Cohen's wallet behind you and can outbid anyone making the decision easier.
the advantage you have is knowing if cohen want to retain a player he can retain a player just like he did with nimmo/diaz. before baez signed in detroit the mets had deals with marte, escobar, canha, scherzer and may have also added gausman. they just chose to spend the $ on different players because a different gm with a different vision came in.
here were the standings the day the mets made the trade:
the guys atlanta dealt for propelled them to a WS win - soler was WS MVP - even knowing Acuna was out for the year.
texas just won a WS after being aggressive at the deadline knowing JDG was 100% out for the year.
from that day forward obviously the team collapsed and PCA's rehab/development ended up at the farthest end of the good outcome as possible for the cubs, but even there i think the loss for the mets is overstated unless he ends up on some kind of even crazier MVP-level outcome. The mets did what they had to do to extend Nimmo in CF who is probably still a more valuable player for several seasons, and if they want to go buy a 2-4 win OF'er they can easily do so almost any offseason (this one included). It just costs more $, which is something cohen is willing to do. PCA's prospects of succeeding right away probably aren't different than Baty's were at this time a year ago so while you hate to give up any asset for what amounted to very little, there's a good amount of prospect shine on him that will be gone as quickly as it was with kelenic if the 30% k-rate doesn't improve.
"There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
"
@ZackScottSports
I polled our deadline room on Baez vs Bryant and it was an exact 50-50 split. I preferred Baez because Lindor was injured at the time, he gave us a more versatile roster (e.g., McNeil could go to OF if needed), and I thought he would handle NY better.
"There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
"
It was PCA and "another top prospect". I'm guessing it was Mauricio. There were rumors of Contreras for Mauricio.
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Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Then the catchers were dropped from the concept and at one point I asked for Bryant to be added. It was clear that they liked what they had for Bryant elsewhere so that quickly went nowhere. #Cubs #Mets
wow that would have been a massive deal.
i think that return would have had to have been (alvarez?).
clearly they dropped to an at the time lesser prospect in PCA for a lesser return.
Kimbrel brough back madrigal by himself, so Baez + Kimbrel + Contreras would have been something a lot more valuable than PCA which is probably alvarez.
BA's top mets prospects updated after the deadline were:
1. Alvarez
2. Baty
3. Mauricio
4. Vientos
5. Allan
6. Ginn
7. Megill
8. Ramirez
9. Dominguez
10. Cortes
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-new-york-mets-midseason-top-30-prospects-update/ - ( New Window )
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all I want to know is who this "top prospect" was
"There were so many different combos discussed, so it's hard to remember the exact details. There was a bigger trade discussion involving McCann (paid down), Dom Smith, and another top Mets prospect to ChC with Contreras, Kimbrel, Baez, and Williams coming back.
"
It was PCA and "another top prospect". I'm guessing it was Mauricio. There were rumors of Contreras for Mauricio.
i think it had to be alvarez. mets were getting back contreras under control for 2 years and kimbrel who brought back madrigal, who by himself was probably a better prospect than mauricio at that point in time.
madrigal was a consensus top 40 prospect pre-2021, #12 on BP, and hitting .305 for CWS in the big leagues when dealt.
mauricio was a consensus top 100 prospect but not top 50 on any list. alvarez was top 50 on BA and pipeline.
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
the 2 years were 2021/2022. the meaning was just that unlike kimbrel (who cost madrigal) and baez (who cost pca), contreras wasnt a rental. so to get all 3 would have been a significant price.
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had 1 year of control left, 2022 was his final season with the Cubs
the 2 years were 2021/2022. the meaning was just that unlike kimbrel (who cost madrigal) and baez (who cost pca), contreras wasnt a rental. so to get all 3 would have been a significant price.
The trade was consummated 7/30/2021, that's not 2 seasons of control. 2 seasons of control would be the Mets adding a player now, signed through 2025.
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
Don't believe that for a second.
@SotoC803
A decent bat is pretty much it. Granted its not NEARLY as good as Cubs fans make it seem.
Morel hit 9 bombs in his first 12 games in '23 and then posted a .227 AVG/.735 OPS, 17 HR, 54 RBI over the next 95 games.
A decent stat line....but certainly not "headliner" worthy.
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
this seems like a contradiction, unless he's saying the trade was entirely his choosing but he felt compelled to have to make a big trade?
others may disagree but i dont think it was unfair that he was pushed to do something significant. they were 5 games up, had Carrasco set to debut as a Met, Walker had made the ASG, Stroman/Megill pitched well in July, the hope of syndergaard (who came back) and jdg (who didnt but said he could have pitched postseason) - it obviously just all blew up. very different situation from being under .500, 10 games back of wild card and almost 20 back in division like this year.
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Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
this seems like a contradiction, unless he's saying the trade was entirely his choosing but he felt compelled to have to make a big trade?
others may disagree but i dont think it was unfair that he was pushed to do something significant. they were 5 games up, had Carrasco set to debut as a Met, Walker had made the ASG, Stroman/Megill pitched well in July, the hope of syndergaard (who came back) and jdg (who didnt but said he could have pitched postseason) - it obviously just all blew up. very different situation from being under .500, 10 games back of wild card and almost 20 back in division like this year.
Sort of touches on that here.
"Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
I polled our deadline room on Baez vs Bryant and it was an exact 50-50 split. I preferred Baez because Lindor was injured at the time, he gave us a more versatile roster (e.g., McNeil could go to OF if needed), and I thought he would handle NY better."
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In comment 16291263 DanMetroMan said:
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had 1 year of control left, 2022 was his final season with the Cubs
the 2 years were 2021/2022. the meaning was just that unlike kimbrel (who cost madrigal) and baez (who cost pca), contreras wasnt a rental. so to get all 3 would have been a significant price.
The trade was consummated 7/30/2021, that's not 2 seasons of control. 2 seasons of control would be the Mets adding a player now, signed through 2025.
lets not do the pedantic thing, the nomenclature around that is always inconsistent. I didnt say he had 2 more seasons of control i said he had 2 seasons of control, which technically they would have gotten. control of contreras in 2 seasons not 1. yes 1.5 would have been a more accurate way of saying it.
am I wrong on this and people don't care or would they think he's over-sharing.
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In comment 16291267 DanMetroMan said:
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Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Addressing the pressures at the deadline. I've seen people say that Steve, Sandy, or Lindor were the drivers for the trade. That's absolutely not true. It was made clear to me that we had to do something significant which is not an ideal starting point but it was what it was.
He also completely denies Lindor pushed for Baez. Said he asked Lindor about Baez and how he might handle the NY media and that was it.
this seems like a contradiction, unless he's saying the trade was entirely his choosing but he felt compelled to have to make a big trade?
others may disagree but i dont think it was unfair that he was pushed to do something significant. they were 5 games up, had Carrasco set to debut as a Met, Walker had made the ASG, Stroman/Megill pitched well in July, the hope of syndergaard (who came back) and jdg (who didnt but said he could have pitched postseason) - it obviously just all blew up. very different situation from being under .500, 10 games back of wild card and almost 20 back in division like this year.
Sort of touches on that here.
"Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
I polled our deadline room on Baez vs Bryant and it was an exact 50-50 split. I preferred Baez because Lindor was injured at the time, he gave us a more versatile roster (e.g., McNeil could go to OF if needed), and I thought he would handle NY better."
i thought he made the right decision between those 2 (and baez did perform).
it's weird but the not discussed enough poison pill of 2021/2023 was Carrasco.
1-5 with a 6 era in his 12 starts 2nd half 2021.
3-8 with a near 7 era in his 20 starts this year.
in 2021 they rushed him back without rehab starts and i guess last year he was decent but he was an almost auto-L every 5th day in the 2 parts of years where they massively underperformed. obviously wasnt just him but had he been just league average either year could have turned out differently.
am I wrong on this and people don't care or would they think he's over-sharing.
Got a ring with the Rangers and Stearns reached out to him before taking the Mets job so I don't think it's going to impact him much at all. He's stated he won't trades involving players who ended up not being traded/are still with the team that didn't trade them.
thats because it is most commonly phrased in present tense moments so it makes the most sense to say "x more years of control".
we are talking about it retroactively so i was summing up how many total years the mets would have received. the precise number was 1.5 seasons (or 1.333) i imprecisely said "2" because bbi isnt the wsj and i didnt think i needed to use decimals.
"Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
Bad take. After 2020, Carlos was one of 3 finalists in Boston before we brought Alex Cora back. We spoke to 10 candidates with no ML managerial experience, and he was by far the most prepared to be a manager on day 1. Good hire! #NYM #Mets #Yankees #RedSox"
sidenote his 2 blog posts on his website are reasonably interesting (especially this one).
https://fourringssports.com/analytics-drive-winning/ - ( New Window )
Daniel Vogelbach (5.138): $2.6MM
Trevor Gott (5.057): $2MM
Drew Smith (5.034): $2.3MM
Pete Alonso (5.000): $22MM
Luis Guillorme (4.159): $1.7MM
Joey Lucchesi (4.112): $2MM
Sam Coonrod (4.078): $900K
Jeff Brigham (3.142): $1.1MM
David Peterson (3.089): $2MM
DJ Stewart (2.168): $1.5MM
My guesses are Gott, Alonso, Smith, Guillorme, Lucchesi, Peterson and Stewart are all tendered and the rest are non-tendered. Guillorme is the one I'm least confident will be tendered.
To Scott's credit, he's done a good job fixing his name around the sport, glad to see that.
To Scott's credit, he's done a good job fixing his name around the sport, glad to see that.
here's the link, now spill them beans. or at least throw some clues.
https://dcs.megaphone.fm/CAD4289359628.mp3?key=15b9cfe91bd59ead10c0c280cd9cd5ad&request_event_id=8b79d8e8-a018-4ed2-81a0-c7614b7fbbc9 - ( New Window )
@bkfan09
Add another interesting prospect to keep an eye on in 2024 , Acosta coming back from injury at the end of the DSL season , Went 4-4 in today’s Rangers vs. Mets instructs , now the game means nothing but it’s good to see him heathy
Teams pursuing the top free agent — such as the Mets and perhaps the Yankees — have been informed that leaks will hurt their chances of bringing home the two-way superstar.
“If visits between Ohtani and a team are reported publicly, it will be held against the team, so the circles will be tiny and tight,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported.
“I have heard, I have been told, that Gary, Keith, and Ron over the last number of years are never down talking to the players anymore.” Giannotti said earlier this week on “Boomer and Gio.”
“They don’t, and the players and the managers and the coaches, they can’t stand the fact that these guys are so popular, and they sit up there and pontificate in the booth, but they’re never down there talking to the players and they’re like bigger than life.
“My theory on this is that someone was needling Gary, Keith, and Ron and gave Mendoza that line. Because he goes, ‘Deep conversations.’ That is my take on this.”
He later added: “I just know that this past year, in particular, they were never talking to the players.”