But, from reading the comments here, he made one very big bold faced lie lol
To Scott's credit, he's done a good job fixing his name around the sport, glad to see that.
here's the link, now spill them beans. or at least throw some clues. https://dcs.megaphone.fm/CAD4289359628.mp3?key=15b9cfe91bd59ead10c0c280cd9cd5ad&request_event_id=8b79d8e8-a018-4ed2-81a0-c7614b7fbbc9 - ( New Window )
Nothing to spill, his big lie was saying Lindor had nothing to do with it. He 110% pushed for it, and 'they' pushed the FO to make a "flashy" move. And they didn't pull back when they knew JdG was hurt because of that.
One thing I did notice about the A's, despite their payrolls they have been able to mostly put together competent bullpens. Middle of the pack in FIP, era and fWAR 2015-2022. Horrendous in 2023.
WFAN host Greg Giannotti had a more sinister theory, though, about the awkward delivery and what may have caused it.
“I have heard, I have been told, that Gary, Keith, and Ron over the last number of years are never down talking to the players anymore.” Giannotti said earlier this week on “Boomer and Gio.”
“They don’t, and the players and the managers and the coaches, they can’t stand the fact that these guys are so popular, and they sit up there and pontificate in the booth, but they’re never down there talking to the players and they’re like bigger than life.
“My theory on this is that someone was needling Gary, Keith, and Ron and gave Mendoza that line. Because he goes, ‘Deep conversations.’ That is my take on this.”
He later added: “I just know that this past year, in particular, they were never talking to the players.”
Nothing to spill, his big lie was saying Lindor had nothing to do with it. He 110% pushed for it, and 'they' pushed the FO to make a "flashy" move. And they didn't pull back when they knew JdG was hurt because of that.
thats interesting - id imagine big name players often make their feelings known (max sort of did the same thing this year) but this seems notable given what ended up transpiring with the thumbs down stuff. rojas and scott obviously seemed in over their heads managing a clubhouse that august (and in scotts case his own decision making), so i suppose this could be read in that direction as well.
having seen how the searches for execs played out in the following offseasons, i wonder how much the owners (or wilpons) set the deal to close at the most inconvenient time possible for cohen a few days after the offseason began.
really interesting. as an analytics guy he thinks teams have too many people in analytics at this point to negative detriment.
for PJ - he consults with hockey teams too and says he thinks hockey is about 20 years behind baseball in terms of using analytics lol. having some first hand experience with the league office i buy that.
i feel like scott came off better in that 1 interview than he ever did as met gm. but i guess that year was basically his first year dealing with the media in a significant manner.
I don't know if hockey is as reductive as baseball.
Analytics on football still aren't on par with baseball because of so many variables so I'm not sure hockey can be boiled down the same way either.
I have seen goal shares, win shares, expected goals, and other stats, but I don't think it's as easy to isolate an individual in any sport as it is in baseball with batter vs pitcher. everything else can be neutralized and therefore outcomes made somewhat predictable.
Can they do that in hockey?
What are the actions they could measure? shot velocity? release angle? I'd love to hear more but I'm naturally skeptical.
RE: RE: listening to the Zack Scott interview and his non mets thoughts are
really interesting. as an analytics guy he thinks teams have too many people in analytics at this point to negative detriment.
for PJ - he consults with hockey teams too and says he thinks hockey is about 20 years behind baseball in terms of using analytics lol. having some first hand experience with the league office i buy that.
i feel like scott came off better in that 1 interview than he ever did as met gm. but i guess that year was basically his first year dealing with the media in a significant manner.
I don't know if hockey is as reductive as baseball.
Analytics on football still aren't on par with baseball because of so many variables so I'm not sure hockey can be boiled down the same way either.
I have seen goal shares, win shares, expected goals, and other stats, but I don't think it's as easy to isolate an individual in any sport as it is in baseball with batter vs pitcher. everything else can be neutralized and therefore outcomes made somewhat predictable.
Can they do that in hockey?
What are the actions they could measure? shot velocity? release angle? I'd love to hear more but I'm naturally skeptical.
i agree, nothing is as statistically reductive as baseball. every batter/pitcher is an isolated individual event.
for hockey, like nextgen with nfl or statcast w/ mlb, i think the path forward is going to be based on movement tracking. acceleration, topspeed, "open rates", shot probability for goals over expectation, stuff like that.
i think natural stat trick and expected goals/high danger is the closest public data ive seen but i believe their methodology is just location based. shots from location x go in y% of the time. adding in the shot quality based on velocity/location/etc would take that to a different level and if had a database for all players id imagine we'd see a guy like mcdavid with just ridiculously higher adjusted scoring %. and conversely probably help quantify which goalies make the "hardest" saves.
so far all the hockey stuff I see is really just confirming what you saw, not predictive of an outcome or a likely/possible outcome.
It would be cool if they could do that - since it would help players know what skills to focus on. IOW if speed is not an material indicator/differentiator (it is) but edges are (they are too), that would be good to know for development (for example). Same with shot type, release angle, shot velocity, etc.
so far all the hockey stuff I see is really just confirming what you saw, not predictive of an outcome or a likely/possible outcome.
It would be cool if they could do that - since it would help players know what skills to focus on. IOW if speed is not an material indicator/differentiator (it is) but edges are (they are too), that would be good to know for development (for example). Same with shot type, release angle, shot velocity, etc.
guys like mcdavid are so good anyone can watch them and guess that they just constantly moving faster/shooting harder than everyone else. where it will be predictive is in finding guys who are underrated because their shot quality is better than whatever their present results are. not dissimilar to how a player like vientos' exit velocities/expected stats predicted that given regular playing time putting up numbers like he did in september was within reach and maybe even likely. the real numbers caught up with expected numbers.
family not expected to sell the Padres, we'll see what happens down the line but that's the claim.
"Now Kutsenda, a co-founder and managing partner at Seidler’s private equity firm, has assumed control on a temporary basis. While it is unclear how long Kutsenda will serve in that capacity, league sources said the Seidler family intends to honor Seidler’s wishes by retaining ownership of the Padres. Seidler and his extended family own a combined majority of the franchise, according to sources, with Seidler’s stake having been transferred to a trust."
RE: RE: RE: RE: Anyone have a link to the interview, I'd be curious to hear it
Nothing to spill, his big lie was saying Lindor had nothing to do with it. He 110% pushed for it, and 'they' pushed the FO to make a "flashy" move. And they didn't pull back when they knew JdG was hurt because of that.
thats interesting - id imagine big name players often make their feelings known (max sort of did the same thing this year) but this seems notable given what ended up transpiring with the thumbs down stuff. rojas and scott obviously seemed in over their heads managing a clubhouse that august (and in scotts case his own decision making), so i suppose this could be read in that direction as well.
having seen how the searches for execs played out in the following offseasons, i wonder how much the owners (or wilpons) set the deal to close at the most inconvenient time possible for cohen a few days after the offseason began.
That's disgusting. NEVER let the inmates run the asylum. Lindor need to sht up and play ball. Scott's a moron.
Someone just texted me laughing, that he supposedly said this today
Don’t blame Lindor, Sandy or Cohen, they had nothing to do with the Baez trade. But it was made crystal clear to me that we needed to make a really big trade. Which forced my hands
Was it the guy in the third row, fifth seat giving him looks? WTF does that mean?? It wasn’t them, but they forced the trade. But they had nothing to do with it either 🤣
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
Atlanta acquires reliever Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Michael Soroka, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Braden Shewmake and minor-league RHP Riley Gowens.
probably all spare parts they were trying to clear off the 40 man but seems like a pretty big package for a rp with control issues - but he does get a ton of ground balls, avoids hard contact, and a lot of k's. shewmake and shuster (graduated) were top 10/20 prospects for the braves in the last couple years. makes the brooks raley trade look pretty cheap. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-bummer-has-an-amazing-pitch-but-it-is-not-the-one-you-think/ - ( New Window )
Lord help us if vogey is tendered today. Would really be the first sour taste of the Stearns era. The Murfee thing doesn't sit well with me either with so much 40 man space but let's see what he does.
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
Atlanta acquires reliever Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Michael Soroka, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Braden Shewmake and minor-league RHP Riley Gowens.
probably all spare parts they were trying to clear off the 40 man but seems like a pretty big package for a rp with control issues - but he does get a ton of ground balls, avoids hard contact, and a lot of k's. shewmake and shuster (graduated) were top 10/20 prospects for the braves in the last couple years. makes the brooks raley trade look pretty cheap. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-bummer-has-an-amazing-pitch-but-it-is-not-the-one-you-think/ - ( New Window )
This seems like a crazy overpay for a solid RP. I'm sure the Braves will unlock him further and he'll turn into a shut down closer though.
The Vogey Tender thing is sort of a Litmus Test for the new regime.
I would venture to say that Stearns 'fouled-off 2 good pitches' when he guessed wrong on his former manager's intentions and then miscalculated on putting together his 40-man.
Lord help us if vogey is tendered today. Would really be the first sour taste of the Stearns era. The Murfee thing doesn't sit well with me either with so much 40 man space but let's see what he does.
Nobody expects him tobe tendered,but the value of the 40 man spot is greater than the $2mm cost.
And they don’t need the 40 man spot TODAY.
Literally the WORST case scenario is you tender him and eat the $2mm if/when you need the spot. Best case is you have a near minimum wage guy at the end of your bench.
I ALMOST WANT THEM TO TENDER HIM, JUST FOR THE HILSRIOUS COMMENTS THAT WILL SURELY FOLLOW.
The Vogey Tender thing is sort of a Litmus Test for the new regime.
I would venture to say that Stearns 'fouled-off 2 good pitches' when he guessed wrong on his former manager's intentions and then miscalculated on putting together his 40-man.
Lord help us if vogey is tendered today. Would really be the first sour taste of the Stearns era. The Murfee thing doesn't sit well with me either with so much 40 man space but let's see what he does.
Nobody expects him tobe tendered,but the value of the 40 man spot is greater than the $2mm cost.
And they don’t need the 40 man spot TODAY.
Literally the WORST case scenario is you tender him and eat the $2mm if/when you need the spot. Best case is you have a near minimum wage guy at the end of your bench.
I ALMOST WANT THEM TO TENDER HIM, JUST FOR THE HILSRIOUS COMMENTS THAT WILL SURELY FOLLOW.
Yeah, not going to lose sleep over Vogelbach if they tender him. As you said, he's cheap. They don't know what the offseason will bring. They will be, of course, looking for upgrades, but I'd rather them put money towards pitching if some of these DH guys are out of control price wise
has to be non-tendered. It's inexcusable to tender him or even contemplate keeping him.
He likely will not be. But just because he's tendered doesn't mean he's getting 300 ABs. They could for instance, trade him for a lower level "prospect" once they (as anticipated) sign another player to replace him. Tendering a contract is but one piece in the offseason puzzle. Not going to lose sleep either way.
Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
·
Atlanta acquires reliever Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Michael Soroka, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Braden Shewmake and minor-league RHP Riley Gowens.
probably all spare parts they were trying to clear off the 40 man but seems like a pretty big package for a rp with control issues - but he does get a ton of ground balls, avoids hard contact, and a lot of k's. shewmake and shuster (graduated) were top 10/20 prospects for the braves in the last couple years. makes the brooks raley trade look pretty cheap. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-bummer-has-an-amazing-pitch-but-it-is-not-the-one-you-think/ - ( New Window )
This seems like a crazy overpay for a solid RP. I'm sure the Braves will unlock him further and he'll turn into a shut down closer though.
i think the braves wanted to remove those guys from their 40 man any way so this was just cashing in a bunch of spare parts for 1 usable player. maybe they would have been happy to keep 1 or 2 of them, but the others were just fodder.
it's sort of like a mets package of butto, nido, drew smith + an org filler prospect out of top 30. id happily cash that type of group in for a late game reliever under control for a few years.
says teams are interested in trading for Woodruff. I don't get it. His projected arb is 11-12, he's going to likely miss all of 2024 and then is a FA. So you're going to trade a prospect to pay a guy 11-12 with the hope he comes back earlier than expected and looks so good he's worth offering the QO (21-ish million)? If he's non-tendered I understand the interest.
Lord help us if vogey is tendered today. Would really be the first sour taste of the Stearns era. The Murfee thing doesn't sit well with me either with so much 40 man space but let's see what he does.
Same here GF. That Murfee thing perplexed me too. I think logic will prevail with the Vogelsnack thing today, but you never know with this franchise. Hopefully Stearns can read the room...
Lord help us if vogey is tendered today. Would really be the first sour taste of the Stearns era. The Murfee thing doesn't sit well with me either with so much 40 man space but let's see what he does.
Nobody expects him tobe tendered,but the value of the 40 man spot is greater than the $2mm cost.
And they don’t need the 40 man spot TODAY.
Literally the WORST case scenario is you tender him and eat the $2mm if/when you need the spot. Best case is you have a near minimum wage guy at the end of your bench.
I ALMOST WANT THEM TO TENDER HIM, JUST FOR THE HILSRIOUS COMMENTS THAT WILL SURELY FOLLOW.
lol. The comments would be hilarious, no doubt Shecky!
says teams are interested in trading for Woodruff. I don't get it. His projected arb is 11-12, he's going to likely miss all of 2024 and then is a FA. So you're going to trade a prospect to pay a guy 11-12 with the hope he comes back earlier than expected and looks so good he's worth offering the QO (21-ish million)? If he's non-tendered I understand the interest.
im not sure how insurance works on initial contracts bc i wonder if that pays down some of the price, but lets put that aside.
i think the way to look at it is this:
healthy he is a 3+ fwar pitcher.
if he comes back for approx the final 1/3 year + playoffs, that's 1 fwar prorated.
ben clemens estimate the price/war of FA in 2021 at 8.5m, so with some strong markets i'd guess today it's closer to 10-11m
so his arb number isn't too far off an optimistic outcome for his rehab. and if the optimistic outcome hits, like you mentioned you can QO him, which he probably turns down, and then you add the return of a QO FA if he departs (or you keep him).
the downside is rehab goes poorly and you blew $11-12m (unless there's insurance in which case the downside is hedged).
for a team like mets it's a good use of $ if there's reason to be optimistic about the medicals imo.
The Vogey Tender thing is sort of a Litmus Test for the new regime.
I would venture to say that Stearns 'fouled-off 2 good pitches' when he guessed wrong on his former manager's intentions and then miscalculated on putting together his 40-man.
Would love to hear your thinking behind this one.
I kept hearing rumors that Stearns had the inside scoop on whatever Counsell was thinking. When the deal finally went down, the SNY headline was 'David Stearns Surprised by Counsell's Cubs move'.
Fastball fouled back into the screen.
There were a couple of minor league pitchers that had shown some promise last summer. Suarez and Orze come to mind. Penn Murfee, could have easily been parked and then moved to the IL. The Mets 40-man was put together with only 33 players, leaving some guys unprotected. They got scooped on it. Did the Front Office expect to grab 7 players to fill out their roster?
Hanging curveball, fouled into the dugout.
Vogelbach has shown little as a far as a prototypical DH (Vientos almost out-homered him in far fewer at bats), and Vogey has no positional value.
In my opinion, the fan base is looking for a certain outcome on this one.
says teams are interested in trading for Woodruff. I don't get it. His projected arb is 11-12, he's going to likely miss all of 2024 and then is a FA. So you're going to trade a prospect to pay a guy 11-12 with the hope he comes back earlier than expected and looks so good he's worth offering the QO (21-ish million)? If he's non-tendered I understand the interest.
im not sure how insurance works on initial contracts bc i wonder if that pays down some of the price, but lets put that aside.
i think the way to look at it is this:
healthy he is a 3+ fwar pitcher.
if he comes back for approx the final 1/3 year + playoffs, that's 1 fwar prorated.
ben clemens estimate the price/war of FA in 2021 at 8.5m, so with some strong markets i'd guess today it's closer to 10-11m
so his arb number isn't too far off an optimistic outcome for his rehab. and if the optimistic outcome hits, like you mentioned you can QO him, which he probably turns down, and then you add the return of a QO FA if he departs (or you keep him).
the downside is rehab goes poorly and you blew $11-12m (unless there's insurance in which case the downside is hedged).
for a team like mets it's a good use of $ if there's reason to be optimistic about the medicals imo.
This kind of injury is potentially career-ending. There is almost no chance he pitches 1/3 of 2024. Odds are he doesn't throw a pitch until 2025, not really sure how "optimistic" one can be on major shoulder surgery that he just had 4 weeks ago. If he misses all of 2024, then you're probably not offering him a QO. 12 million + the cost to acquire for a guy who more likely than not doesn't throw a pitch for your team is an odd move.
says teams are interested in trading for Woodruff. I don't get it. His projected arb is 11-12, he's going to likely miss all of 2024 and then is a FA. So you're going to trade a prospect to pay a guy 11-12 with the hope he comes back earlier than expected and looks so good he's worth offering the QO (21-ish million)? If he's non-tendered I understand the interest.
im not sure how insurance works on initial contracts bc i wonder if that pays down some of the price, but lets put that aside.
i think the way to look at it is this:
healthy he is a 3+ fwar pitcher.
if he comes back for approx the final 1/3 year + playoffs, that's 1 fwar prorated.
ben clemens estimate the price/war of FA in 2021 at 8.5m, so with some strong markets i'd guess today it's closer to 10-11m
so his arb number isn't too far off an optimistic outcome for his rehab. and if the optimistic outcome hits, like you mentioned you can QO him, which he probably turns down, and then you add the return of a QO FA if he departs (or you keep him).
the downside is rehab goes poorly and you blew $11-12m (unless there's insurance in which case the downside is hedged).
for a team like mets it's a good use of $ if there's reason to be optimistic about the medicals imo.
This kind of injury is potentially career-ending. There is almost no chance he pitches 1/3 of 2024. Odds are he doesn't throw a pitch until 2025, not really sure how "optimistic" one can be on major shoulder surgery that he just had 4 weeks ago. If he misses all of 2024, then you're probably not offering him a QO. 12 million + the cost to acquire for a guy who more likely than not doesn't throw a pitch for your team is an odd move.
like i said the only way it makes sense is if there's a reason for people involved to be optimistic about the medical. we have no way of knowing that and comps to other players may or may not work because we dont know the extent of their surgeries. even acl/tjs arent all the same.
woodruff did an interview a few weeks ago where he says he was told he could pitch "next summer".
Quote:
“I’m two weeks into this thing and from talking with doctors, multiple doctors, there is a possibility of being open to me throwing at some point next summer. Now I’ve got a long way to go, but that is a possibility for me. As an athlete you have to set goals and something to look forward too.”
he's non-tendered I'd be very interested but probably more interested in Mahle who had TJ in May (a less worrisome injury) and should realistically pitch in July/August. 1 + a team option
@BNightengale
·
4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
@BNightengale
·
4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
Too bad they don't have much on that roster. Gregory Santos would intrigue me as a 7th/8th inning guy but he isn't even arb eligible until years from now so doubt they sell him unless it's a decent return.
@BNightengale
·
4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
Too bad they don't have much on that roster. Gregory Santos would intrigue me as a 7th/8th inning guy but he isn't even arb eligible until years from now so doubt they sell him unless it's a decent return.
I'm sure teams will call about Luis Robert. Getz admitted he;s discussed Eloy Jimenez.
@BNightengale
·
4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
Too bad they don't have much on that roster. Gregory Santos would intrigue me as a 7th/8th inning guy but he isn't even arb eligible until years from now so doubt they sell him unless it's a decent return.
I'm sure teams will call about Luis Robert. Getz admitted he;s discussed Eloy Jimenez.
Yeah that's really all they got but didn't include them as cost would be too high. Andrew Vaughan somewhat perhaps as an Alonso replacement but I don't love that.
among the teams that have called about Cease. They would turn him around for sure. I hope not.
Yikes I did miss Cease somehow. Good thing the Braves system probably needs a year or two for them to start developing guys again with all the influx of talent they had in the last few years from their system.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have been talking to teams potentially interested in Drew Smith ahead of tonight's deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players.
Mike Puma
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have been talking to teams potentially interested in Drew Smith ahead of tonight's deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players.
For his sake I hope it's some team with a big ballpark. Surprisingly he did lower his HR/9 from some of his previous years.
Buster Olney
@Buster_ESPN
Source: Pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto expected to be posted Monday. That means the 45-day negotiating window for MLB teams will start Tuesday.
Quote:
But, from reading the comments here, he made one very big bold faced lie lol
To Scott's credit, he's done a good job fixing his name around the sport, glad to see that.
here's the link, now spill them beans. or at least throw some clues. https://dcs.megaphone.fm/CAD4289359628.mp3?key=15b9cfe91bd59ead10c0c280cd9cd5ad&request_event_id=8b79d8e8-a018-4ed2-81a0-c7614b7fbbc9 - ( New Window )
Nothing to spill, his big lie was saying Lindor had nothing to do with it. He 110% pushed for it, and 'they' pushed the FO to make a "flashy" move. And they didn't pull back when they knew JdG was hurt because of that.
One thing I did notice about the A's, despite their payrolls they have been able to mostly put together competent bullpens. Middle of the pack in FIP, era and fWAR 2015-2022. Horrendous in 2023.
“I have heard, I have been told, that Gary, Keith, and Ron over the last number of years are never down talking to the players anymore.” Giannotti said earlier this week on “Boomer and Gio.”
“They don’t, and the players and the managers and the coaches, they can’t stand the fact that these guys are so popular, and they sit up there and pontificate in the booth, but they’re never down there talking to the players and they’re like bigger than life.
“My theory on this is that someone was needling Gary, Keith, and Ron and gave Mendoza that line. Because he goes, ‘Deep conversations.’ That is my take on this.”
He later added: “I just know that this past year, in particular, they were never talking to the players.”
Giannotti is a clown
KBO in English
@KBO_ENG
🚨LG Twins closer, widely known as Team Koreas closer, and the best closer in the KBO, Go Woo-suk, will be posted to the MLB.
Best of luck in your new opportunity stateside, Go.
This will mark yet another young promising Korean player in the MLB!
Go is related to Lee Jung-hoo
Nothing to spill, his big lie was saying Lindor had nothing to do with it. He 110% pushed for it, and 'they' pushed the FO to make a "flashy" move. And they didn't pull back when they knew JdG was hurt because of that.
thats interesting - id imagine big name players often make their feelings known (max sort of did the same thing this year) but this seems notable given what ended up transpiring with the thumbs down stuff. rojas and scott obviously seemed in over their heads managing a clubhouse that august (and in scotts case his own decision making), so i suppose this could be read in that direction as well.
having seen how the searches for execs played out in the following offseasons, i wonder how much the owners (or wilpons) set the deal to close at the most inconvenient time possible for cohen a few days after the offseason began.
@timbhealey
Yoshinobu Yamamoto update: He is playing golf with the Cardinals’ Lars Nootbaar today, according to Nootbaar’s Instagram.
for PJ - he consults with hockey teams too and says he thinks hockey is about 20 years behind baseball in terms of using analytics lol. having some first hand experience with the league office i buy that.
i feel like scott came off better in that 1 interview than he ever did as met gm. but i guess that year was basically his first year dealing with the media in a significant manner.
I don't know if hockey is as reductive as baseball.
Analytics on football still aren't on par with baseball because of so many variables so I'm not sure hockey can be boiled down the same way either.
I have seen goal shares, win shares, expected goals, and other stats, but I don't think it's as easy to isolate an individual in any sport as it is in baseball with batter vs pitcher. everything else can be neutralized and therefore outcomes made somewhat predictable.
Can they do that in hockey?
What are the actions they could measure? shot velocity? release angle? I'd love to hear more but I'm naturally skeptical.
Quote:
really interesting. as an analytics guy he thinks teams have too many people in analytics at this point to negative detriment.
for PJ - he consults with hockey teams too and says he thinks hockey is about 20 years behind baseball in terms of using analytics lol. having some first hand experience with the league office i buy that.
i feel like scott came off better in that 1 interview than he ever did as met gm. but i guess that year was basically his first year dealing with the media in a significant manner.
I don't know if hockey is as reductive as baseball.
Analytics on football still aren't on par with baseball because of so many variables so I'm not sure hockey can be boiled down the same way either.
I have seen goal shares, win shares, expected goals, and other stats, but I don't think it's as easy to isolate an individual in any sport as it is in baseball with batter vs pitcher. everything else can be neutralized and therefore outcomes made somewhat predictable.
Can they do that in hockey?
What are the actions they could measure? shot velocity? release angle? I'd love to hear more but I'm naturally skeptical.
i agree, nothing is as statistically reductive as baseball. every batter/pitcher is an isolated individual event.
for hockey, like nextgen with nfl or statcast w/ mlb, i think the path forward is going to be based on movement tracking. acceleration, topspeed, "open rates", shot probability for goals over expectation, stuff like that.
i think natural stat trick and expected goals/high danger is the closest public data ive seen but i believe their methodology is just location based. shots from location x go in y% of the time. adding in the shot quality based on velocity/location/etc would take that to a different level and if had a database for all players id imagine we'd see a guy like mcdavid with just ridiculously higher adjusted scoring %. and conversely probably help quantify which goalies make the "hardest" saves.
It would be cool if they could do that - since it would help players know what skills to focus on. IOW if speed is not an material indicator/differentiator (it is) but edges are (they are too), that would be good to know for development (for example). Same with shot type, release angle, shot velocity, etc.
It would be cool if they could do that - since it would help players know what skills to focus on. IOW if speed is not an material indicator/differentiator (it is) but edges are (they are too), that would be good to know for development (for example). Same with shot type, release angle, shot velocity, etc.
guys like mcdavid are so good anyone can watch them and guess that they just constantly moving faster/shooting harder than everyone else. where it will be predictive is in finding guys who are underrated because their shot quality is better than whatever their present results are. not dissimilar to how a player like vientos' exit velocities/expected stats predicted that given regular playing time putting up numbers like he did in september was within reach and maybe even likely. the real numbers caught up with expected numbers.
"Now Kutsenda, a co-founder and managing partner at Seidler’s private equity firm, has assumed control on a temporary basis. While it is unclear how long Kutsenda will serve in that capacity, league sources said the Seidler family intends to honor Seidler’s wishes by retaining ownership of the Padres. Seidler and his extended family own a combined majority of the franchise, according to sources, with Seidler’s stake having been transferred to a trust."
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Nothing to spill, his big lie was saying Lindor had nothing to do with it. He 110% pushed for it, and 'they' pushed the FO to make a "flashy" move. And they didn't pull back when they knew JdG was hurt because of that.
thats interesting - id imagine big name players often make their feelings known (max sort of did the same thing this year) but this seems notable given what ended up transpiring with the thumbs down stuff. rojas and scott obviously seemed in over their heads managing a clubhouse that august (and in scotts case his own decision making), so i suppose this could be read in that direction as well.
having seen how the searches for execs played out in the following offseasons, i wonder how much the owners (or wilpons) set the deal to close at the most inconvenient time possible for cohen a few days after the offseason began.
That's disgusting. NEVER let the inmates run the asylum. Lindor need to sht up and play ball. Scott's a moron.
Don’t blame Lindor, Sandy or Cohen, they had nothing to do with the Baez trade. But it was made crystal clear to me that we needed to make a really big trade. Which forced my hands
Was it the guy in the third row, fifth seat giving him looks? WTF does that mean?? It wasn’t them, but they forced the trade. But they had nothing to do with it either 🤣
@BNightengale
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Atlanta acquires reliever Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Michael Soroka, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Braden Shewmake and minor-league RHP Riley Gowens.
probably all spare parts they were trying to clear off the 40 man but seems like a pretty big package for a rp with control issues - but he does get a ton of ground balls, avoids hard contact, and a lot of k's. shewmake and shuster (graduated) were top 10/20 prospects for the braves in the last couple years. makes the brooks raley trade look pretty cheap.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-bummer-has-an-amazing-pitch-but-it-is-not-the-one-you-think/ - ( New Window )
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Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
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Atlanta acquires reliever Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Michael Soroka, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Braden Shewmake and minor-league RHP Riley Gowens.
probably all spare parts they were trying to clear off the 40 man but seems like a pretty big package for a rp with control issues - but he does get a ton of ground balls, avoids hard contact, and a lot of k's. shewmake and shuster (graduated) were top 10/20 prospects for the braves in the last couple years. makes the brooks raley trade look pretty cheap. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-bummer-has-an-amazing-pitch-but-it-is-not-the-one-you-think/ - ( New Window )
This seems like a crazy overpay for a solid RP. I'm sure the Braves will unlock him further and he'll turn into a shut down closer though.
I would venture to say that Stearns 'fouled-off 2 good pitches' when he guessed wrong on his former manager's intentions and then miscalculated on putting together his 40-man.
Nobody expects him tobe tendered,but the value of the 40 man spot is greater than the $2mm cost.
And they don’t need the 40 man spot TODAY.
Literally the WORST case scenario is you tender him and eat the $2mm if/when you need the spot. Best case is you have a near minimum wage guy at the end of your bench.
I ALMOST WANT THEM TO TENDER HIM, JUST FOR THE HILSRIOUS COMMENTS THAT WILL SURELY FOLLOW.
I would venture to say that Stearns 'fouled-off 2 good pitches' when he guessed wrong on his former manager's intentions and then miscalculated on putting together his 40-man.
Would love to hear your thinking behind this one.
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Lord help us if vogey is tendered today. Would really be the first sour taste of the Stearns era. The Murfee thing doesn't sit well with me either with so much 40 man space but let's see what he does.
Nobody expects him tobe tendered,but the value of the 40 man spot is greater than the $2mm cost.
And they don’t need the 40 man spot TODAY.
Literally the WORST case scenario is you tender him and eat the $2mm if/when you need the spot. Best case is you have a near minimum wage guy at the end of your bench.
I ALMOST WANT THEM TO TENDER HIM, JUST FOR THE HILSRIOUS COMMENTS THAT WILL SURELY FOLLOW.
Yeah, not going to lose sleep over Vogelbach if they tender him. As you said, he's cheap. They don't know what the offseason will bring. They will be, of course, looking for upgrades, but I'd rather them put money towards pitching if some of these DH guys are out of control price wise
He likely will not be. But just because he's tendered doesn't mean he's getting 300 ABs. They could for instance, trade him for a lower level "prospect" once they (as anticipated) sign another player to replace him. Tendering a contract is but one piece in the offseason puzzle. Not going to lose sleep either way.
wow, surprised Chavez accepted that.
so is Eric Hinske out then?
Curious if we keep Glen Sherlock (I think was a Buck guy) since he's done well working with Alvarez
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“Demoted” from bench coach back to hitting coach, Barnes from hitting coach to assistant hitting coach.
wow, surprised Chavez accepted that.
so is Eric Hinske out then?
Curious if we keep Glen Sherlock (I think was a Buck guy) since he's done well working with Alvarez
Hinske wasn’t mentioned in the release so I’m assuming he’s gone but who knows?
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Bob Nightengale
@BNightengale
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Atlanta acquires reliever Aaron Bummer from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for RHP Michael Soroka, LHP Jared Shuster, INF Nicky Lopez, INF Braden Shewmake and minor-league RHP Riley Gowens.
probably all spare parts they were trying to clear off the 40 man but seems like a pretty big package for a rp with control issues - but he does get a ton of ground balls, avoids hard contact, and a lot of k's. shewmake and shuster (graduated) were top 10/20 prospects for the braves in the last couple years. makes the brooks raley trade look pretty cheap. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-bummer-has-an-amazing-pitch-but-it-is-not-the-one-you-think/ - ( New Window )
This seems like a crazy overpay for a solid RP. I'm sure the Braves will unlock him further and he'll turn into a shut down closer though.
i think the braves wanted to remove those guys from their 40 man any way so this was just cashing in a bunch of spare parts for 1 usable player. maybe they would have been happy to keep 1 or 2 of them, but the others were just fodder.
it's sort of like a mets package of butto, nido, drew smith + an org filler prospect out of top 30. id happily cash that type of group in for a late game reliever under control for a few years.
Same here GF. That Murfee thing perplexed me too. I think logic will prevail with the Vogelsnack thing today, but you never know with this franchise. Hopefully Stearns can read the room...
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Lord help us if vogey is tendered today. Would really be the first sour taste of the Stearns era. The Murfee thing doesn't sit well with me either with so much 40 man space but let's see what he does.
Nobody expects him tobe tendered,but the value of the 40 man spot is greater than the $2mm cost.
And they don’t need the 40 man spot TODAY.
Literally the WORST case scenario is you tender him and eat the $2mm if/when you need the spot. Best case is you have a near minimum wage guy at the end of your bench.
I ALMOST WANT THEM TO TENDER HIM, JUST FOR THE HILSRIOUS COMMENTS THAT WILL SURELY FOLLOW.
lol. The comments would be hilarious, no doubt Shecky!
im not sure how insurance works on initial contracts bc i wonder if that pays down some of the price, but lets put that aside.
i think the way to look at it is this:
healthy he is a 3+ fwar pitcher.
if he comes back for approx the final 1/3 year + playoffs, that's 1 fwar prorated.
ben clemens estimate the price/war of FA in 2021 at 8.5m, so with some strong markets i'd guess today it's closer to 10-11m
so his arb number isn't too far off an optimistic outcome for his rehab. and if the optimistic outcome hits, like you mentioned you can QO him, which he probably turns down, and then you add the return of a QO FA if he departs (or you keep him).
the downside is rehab goes poorly and you blew $11-12m (unless there's insurance in which case the downside is hedged).
for a team like mets it's a good use of $ if there's reason to be optimistic about the medicals imo.
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The Vogey Tender thing is sort of a Litmus Test for the new regime.
I would venture to say that Stearns 'fouled-off 2 good pitches' when he guessed wrong on his former manager's intentions and then miscalculated on putting together his 40-man.
Would love to hear your thinking behind this one.
I kept hearing rumors that Stearns had the inside scoop on whatever Counsell was thinking. When the deal finally went down, the SNY headline was 'David Stearns Surprised by Counsell's Cubs move'.
Fastball fouled back into the screen.
There were a couple of minor league pitchers that had shown some promise last summer. Suarez and Orze come to mind. Penn Murfee, could have easily been parked and then moved to the IL. The Mets 40-man was put together with only 33 players, leaving some guys unprotected. They got scooped on it. Did the Front Office expect to grab 7 players to fill out their roster?
Hanging curveball, fouled into the dugout.
Vogelbach has shown little as a far as a prototypical DH (Vientos almost out-homered him in far fewer at bats), and Vogey has no positional value.
In my opinion, the fan base is looking for a certain outcome on this one.
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says teams are interested in trading for Woodruff. I don't get it. His projected arb is 11-12, he's going to likely miss all of 2024 and then is a FA. So you're going to trade a prospect to pay a guy 11-12 with the hope he comes back earlier than expected and looks so good he's worth offering the QO (21-ish million)? If he's non-tendered I understand the interest.
im not sure how insurance works on initial contracts bc i wonder if that pays down some of the price, but lets put that aside.
i think the way to look at it is this:
healthy he is a 3+ fwar pitcher.
if he comes back for approx the final 1/3 year + playoffs, that's 1 fwar prorated.
ben clemens estimate the price/war of FA in 2021 at 8.5m, so with some strong markets i'd guess today it's closer to 10-11m
so his arb number isn't too far off an optimistic outcome for his rehab. and if the optimistic outcome hits, like you mentioned you can QO him, which he probably turns down, and then you add the return of a QO FA if he departs (or you keep him).
the downside is rehab goes poorly and you blew $11-12m (unless there's insurance in which case the downside is hedged).
for a team like mets it's a good use of $ if there's reason to be optimistic about the medicals imo.
This kind of injury is potentially career-ending. There is almost no chance he pitches 1/3 of 2024. Odds are he doesn't throw a pitch until 2025, not really sure how "optimistic" one can be on major shoulder surgery that he just had 4 weeks ago. If he misses all of 2024, then you're probably not offering him a QO. 12 million + the cost to acquire for a guy who more likely than not doesn't throw a pitch for your team is an odd move.
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In comment 16292204 DanMetroMan said:
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says teams are interested in trading for Woodruff. I don't get it. His projected arb is 11-12, he's going to likely miss all of 2024 and then is a FA. So you're going to trade a prospect to pay a guy 11-12 with the hope he comes back earlier than expected and looks so good he's worth offering the QO (21-ish million)? If he's non-tendered I understand the interest.
im not sure how insurance works on initial contracts bc i wonder if that pays down some of the price, but lets put that aside.
i think the way to look at it is this:
healthy he is a 3+ fwar pitcher.
if he comes back for approx the final 1/3 year + playoffs, that's 1 fwar prorated.
ben clemens estimate the price/war of FA in 2021 at 8.5m, so with some strong markets i'd guess today it's closer to 10-11m
so his arb number isn't too far off an optimistic outcome for his rehab. and if the optimistic outcome hits, like you mentioned you can QO him, which he probably turns down, and then you add the return of a QO FA if he departs (or you keep him).
the downside is rehab goes poorly and you blew $11-12m (unless there's insurance in which case the downside is hedged).
for a team like mets it's a good use of $ if there's reason to be optimistic about the medicals imo.
This kind of injury is potentially career-ending. There is almost no chance he pitches 1/3 of 2024. Odds are he doesn't throw a pitch until 2025, not really sure how "optimistic" one can be on major shoulder surgery that he just had 4 weeks ago. If he misses all of 2024, then you're probably not offering him a QO. 12 million + the cost to acquire for a guy who more likely than not doesn't throw a pitch for your team is an odd move.
like i said the only way it makes sense is if there's a reason for people involved to be optimistic about the medical. we have no way of knowing that and comps to other players may or may not work because we dont know the extent of their surgeries. even acl/tjs arent all the same.
woodruff did an interview a few weeks ago where he says he was told he could pitch "next summer".
even for happy talk that quote isn't all that encouraging. at this stage happy talk is common, as are rumors that "there's a lot of interest" when deadlines are coming up. we'll see what happens at the deadline, if it's a big long shot he's available next year he almost certainly gets non-tendered (and not traded).
https://wisportsheroics.com/milwaukee-brewers-brandon-woodruff-shoulder-surgery-pitch-in-2024-news-notes-rumors/ - ( New Window )
So even he doesn't sound particularly confident he's pitching in 2024, let alone 1/3 of a season.
Verified
@BNightengale
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4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
Jon Morosi
Verified
@jonmorosi
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11m
Trade today: Rockies acquire right-hander Cal Quantrill from the Guardians for catcher Kody Huff.
Verified
@BNightengale
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4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
Too bad they don't have much on that roster. Gregory Santos would intrigue me as a 7th/8th inning guy but he isn't even arb eligible until years from now so doubt they sell him unless it's a decent return.
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Bob Nightengale
Verified
@BNightengale
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4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
Too bad they don't have much on that roster. Gregory Santos would intrigue me as a 7th/8th inning guy but he isn't even arb eligible until years from now so doubt they sell him unless it's a decent return.
I'm sure teams will call about Luis Robert. Getz admitted he;s discussed Eloy Jimenez.
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In comment 16292282 DanMetroMan said:
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Bob Nightengale
Verified
@BNightengale
·
4m
Attention all shoppers.
Chicago White Sox GM Chris Getz: "I've made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.''
Too bad they don't have much on that roster. Gregory Santos would intrigue me as a 7th/8th inning guy but he isn't even arb eligible until years from now so doubt they sell him unless it's a decent return.
I'm sure teams will call about Luis Robert. Getz admitted he;s discussed Eloy Jimenez.
Yeah that's really all they got but didn't include them as cost would be too high. Andrew Vaughan somewhat perhaps as an Alonso replacement but I don't love that.
Yikes I did miss Cease somehow. Good thing the Braves system probably needs a year or two for them to start developing guys again with all the influx of talent they had in the last few years from their system.
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have been talking to teams potentially interested in Drew Smith ahead of tonight's deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players.
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have been talking to teams potentially interested in Drew Smith ahead of tonight's deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players.
For his sake I hope it's some team with a big ballpark. Surprisingly he did lower his HR/9 from some of his previous years.
@Buster_ESPN
Source: Pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto expected to be posted Monday. That means the 45-day negotiating window for MLB teams will start Tuesday.