for display only
Big Blue Interactive The Corner Forum  
Back to the Corner

Archived Thread

Jets: Wilson, Rogers, Darnold, Sanchez

Blu4ever : 11/20/2023 8:39 am
And what price did they pay?
Wilson...no. 2 overall
Rogers...multiple piks and cap space
Darnold...no.3 overall
Sanchez..top 5 in 2009
Results say the team is clueless. Not so, it points to the vageries in the draft overall and specifically with the qb position.
Don't get it?
The Giants draft non-top ten in 2014 and Odell Beckham,
sits there and behind him are Zack Martin and Aaron Donald. Blake Bortels went no 2 that year. Three of the best at their position to ever play dont go top ten ...but Bortels does.
Rogers and Mahomes (the two best I've ever seen) were not top ten picks. The recently retired HOF'er Drew Brees was not top ten.
Are the Jets stupid? Nope, they're playing a game that is not subject to logic but captive to ramdom.
And people mouth "it's a crapshoot" without really getting that ...."it's a crap shoot".
Indeed, losing on a top ten qb is debilitating tangentially and perhaps "doomed" is more appropriate than debilitated. And losing is as random as winning....in the run for QB's.
A reaction to all the "certainty" bloggers display.?
Yup!
The GOAT missed playing time twice with New England. His back-ups directed The Pats to winning records and immediately became highly sought after. After all, hadn't they proved themselves in the NFL itself? Suitors swamped NE with picks, and Cheshire cat grinning Dollar Bill reluectantly let her stars slide away.
So how did Jimmy G. and Matt Casell impact away from Bill's long shadow?
If Tome Brady played for the 2020 giants, he's a bust.
I grew up in a boarding house. One elderly lady played the horses (trotter's/Roosevelt Raceway), she bet the horses (I swear) with the longest and prettiest tails. My dad owned a few and studied the charts and watched early morning work outs.
You fill in the tag line....
Posters are heartbroken when The Giants win "hey we're blowing a chance at a top three pick? "
Fine with me.


If you can't see the difference  
Blueworm : 11/20/2023 8:52 am : link
Then I don't know what to say.

Players are evaluated according to a rubric. There are objective analyses of criteria.

Most players selected in the draft do not make it.

It's the statistics of pouring 300 new prospects into the pool of ~2000 NFL players every year.

Guess the team should go with veterans only?
They need a star rookie QB, and when you select low, and the talent intersects with your selection, you have to strike.
Right On  
varco : 11/20/2023 9:01 am : link
So true. What I would want is insight into the scouting that went into selecting the eventually successful QB's. What are the attributes that signal success? Draft position is helpful, but the list of draft "busts" is long. Some QB's on winning college programs are lifted by their team, while others do the heavy lifting. Applies to all sports....if draft position and consensus scouting were all that was needed, then all #1's in the top 5 or 10 would be in the HOF. It's certainly more than a "crap shoot" but far more nuanced and complex than just simple draft position and "herd" evaluation.
Is this a super Haiku?  
Ivan15 : 11/20/2023 9:15 am : link
.
RE: Right On  
Mike from Ohio : 11/20/2023 9:15 am : link
In comment 16296318 varco said:
Quote:
So true. What I would want is insight into the scouting that went into selecting the eventually successful QB's. What are the attributes that signal success? Draft position is helpful, but the list of draft "busts" is long. Some QB's on winning college programs are lifted by their team, while others do the heavy lifting. Applies to all sports....if draft position and consensus scouting were all that was needed, then all #1's in the top 5 or 10 would be in the HOF. It's certainly more than a "crap shoot" but far more nuanced and complex than just simple draft position and "herd" evaluation.


The draft is step one of a very long process. If you think scouting the right people is all it take, then you would also have to acknowledge that nothing the QB drafted does, and nothing his coaches do after he is drafted, matter at all.

The draft is difficult. It is absolutely not a "crap shoot." There are just more variables involved in developing a player into a functional NFL QB than college scouting.
Um, their win over the Rams that year  
UberAlias : 11/20/2023 9:31 am : link
Is what landed them Zach Wilson instead of Trevor Lawrence, but hey...
I agree with what your saying  
Bleedblue10 : 11/20/2023 10:03 am : link
But Jets don’t win a meaningless game that year and Trevor Lawrence is their qb and more likely than not we aren’t having this conversation of them not being able to score. There are examples that support both outcomes
I'm still pissed that we lost the Chase Young Bowl....  
rnargi : 11/20/2023 10:06 am : link
....wait...
Im not a fan of giving up a top to get a QB  
Rudy5757 : 11/20/2023 10:13 am : link
but if you are the GM wouldnt you rather pick the guy you want then pick the guy thats left? You can get a start player anywhere in the draft as we have seen. Coaching and situation are a big part of that too.

I want a higher draft pick so the team can either get the best player available or get a lot of picks for a chance to improve a lot of spots.

Mahomes landed in a perfect spot. He sat and learned from one of the best coaches that has a very good QB system. If Mahomes winds up on the Jets theer is a good chance people are calling for a new QB. Its not always about the best player, its about the best situation for the player.

For whatever reason, the Giants offense has been broken no matter what coach we have. We havent had a top 10 Osince the 2012 season. Is it the QB? OL? TE? RB? Coaches? System? The one consistent in all that time is a poor OL. We were bad with Eli, Odeall was great but the O overall was still bad, Saquon hasnt moved the needle and our WRs overall have been subpar so its either the OL or WR or a combo of both.
RE: Um, their win over the Rams that year  
Gruber : 11/20/2023 10:21 am : link
In comment 16296391 UberAlias said:
Quote:
Is what landed them Zach Wilson instead of Trevor Lawrence, but hey...
]

It was over the Browns in Week 16.
One thing that I don't think is paid enough attention  
Gruber : 11/20/2023 10:27 am : link
is coaching.
Darnold at the Jets, Rosen at Arizona, both went immediately to play when it would have benefited them to sit for a season and learn. High draft picks tend to belong to not so good teams, with often not so good coaching.
Josh Allen was more fortunate to go to a better organisation, but I can remember in his first couple of seasons reading reports on here that he was holding the Bills back, that he really wasn't very good, etc.
People on BBI have a strong tendency to talk about QB's that don't make it as regular starters as if it was inevitable that would happen, but I am not so sure that is always true.
So you can miss going early  
RetroJint : 11/20/2023 10:31 am : link
& hit waiting til later but your best chance is to go early . The Jets did well once with Pennington . Geno wasn’t such a bad choice in hindsight . Too bad he got into that stupid fight . What’s amazing to me is Douglas , their GM, has sort of a Teflon Don mystique about him . Even psychopaths like Beningo are reluctant to call for his ouster
Re: Mike From Ohio  
varco : 11/20/2023 10:31 am : link
Mike ---you are right--scouting is only the first step - development is equally if not more important . I didn't mean to downplay the importance, it's just that ferreting out great players is complex. Maybe there should be a "Scouting Hall of Fame".

BTW, where do you live in Ohio? I'm from Avon, just west of Cleveland. NY transplant since 2020 and can't bring myself to root for the local teams.
Blu  
PepperJ52 : 11/20/2023 10:36 am : link
The snapshot of where you grew up is awesome. It’s something that could be in a Bukowski poem or short story. Great setting for a novel or screenplay.
Thanks for sharing. IDK diddely about the science of the NFL draft, but I really appreciate that story and the imagery!
RE: RE: Um, their win over the Rams that year  
UberAlias : 11/20/2023 10:58 am : link
In comment 16296564 Gruber said:
Quote:
In comment 16296391 UberAlias said:


Quote:


Is what landed them Zach Wilson instead of Trevor Lawrence, but hey...

]

It was over the Browns in Week 16.
Thanks. Point is the same. Opportunity is dependent on draft selection, and there are very few legitimate prospects in each draft, let alone guys who will actually pan out. In that case, only the team with the #1 pick came away with a guy who at this point is a slam dunk franchise guy. Jury is still out on a few others. This example of the Jets does nothing to make the case the OP intended. If anything, it is a perfect example of how winning meaningless games can seriously burn you. Imagine the Jets now if they had Lawrence?
RE: RE: RE: Um, their win over the Rams that year  
clatterbuck : 11/20/2023 11:31 am : link
In comment 16296666 UberAlias said:
Quote:
In comment 16296564 Gruber said:


Quote:


In comment 16296391 UberAlias said:


Quote:


Is what landed them Zach Wilson instead of Trevor Lawrence, but hey...

]

It was over the Browns in Week 16.

Thanks. Point is the same. Opportunity is dependent on draft selection, and there are very few legitimate prospects in each draft, let alone guys who will actually pan out. In that case, only the team with the #1 pick came away with a guy who at this point is a slam dunk franchise guy. Jury is still out on a few others. This example of the Jets does nothing to make the case the OP intended. If anything, it is a perfect example of how winning meaningless games can seriously burn you. Imagine the Jets now if they had Lawrence?


Who's to say the Jets wouldn't have Ryan Leafed it and drafted Wilson over Lawrence if they had the chance? Lawrence over Wilson?
QBs taken at the top of the draft  
NoPeanutz : 11/20/2023 11:37 am : link
rarely work out with their first team... they are by definition taken by teams that are a hot mess with no pieces in place. Awful lines, awful or new coaches, rebuilding from the ground up, etc. That's why they're picking at the top. Because they couldn't win more than a couple of games. Burrow is one exception- although his career is likely in question now.

Almost all successful QBs get taken mid or bottom of the first or second round... since they are being picked by teams with a pulse ready to compete. Mahomes is a perfect example. Lamar Jackson is another.

RE: RE: RE: RE: Um, their win over the Rams that year  
UberAlias : 11/20/2023 12:07 pm : link
In comment 16296719 clatterbuck said:
Quote:
In comment 16296666 UberAlias said:


Quote:


In comment 16296564 Gruber said:


Quote:


In comment 16296391 UberAlias said:


Quote:


Is what landed them Zach Wilson instead of Trevor Lawrence, but hey...

]

It was over the Browns in Week 16.

Thanks. Point is the same. Opportunity is dependent on draft selection, and there are very few legitimate prospects in each draft, let alone guys who will actually pan out. In that case, only the team with the #1 pick came away with a guy who at this point is a slam dunk franchise guy. Jury is still out on a few others. This example of the Jets does nothing to make the case the OP intended. If anything, it is a perfect example of how winning meaningless games can seriously burn you. Imagine the Jets now if they had Lawrence?



Who's to say the Jets wouldn't have Ryan Leafed it and drafted Wilson over Lawrence if they had the chance? Lawrence over Wilson?
It doesn't matter if they would or would not have. Nothing guarantees that you are going to pick the right guy. Winning or losing doesn't improve or worsen your ability to asses players one way or the other. But it does 100% impact your options for who you can draft. What ever the odds of the Jets selecting Wilson over Lawrence was, it wasn't zero and I think most would assume it was less than 50%. But there was zero chance of them selecting Lawrence at #2 because he was taken at 1. The option was off the table.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Um, their win over the Rams that year  
Jim in NH : 11/20/2023 3:39 pm : link


In comment 16296391 UberAlias said:


"It doesn't matter if they would or would not have. Nothing guarantees that you are going to pick the right guy. Winning or losing doesn't improve or worsen your ability to asses players one way or the other".

I disagree. Losing all the time, losing for a decade or more may not WORSEN your ability to assess players - because losing all the time, losing like the New York Football Giants, means your ability to assess players is already in the toilet and can't go lower.

There's a name for ownership and management with > 10 years of losing, and that name is - LOSERS.
Back to the Corner