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CFB QBs: How big a deal is age?

Everyone Relax : 11/20/2023 10:23 am
Some of the top QB prospects this year are what many would consider "older" for a prospect. Daniels, Penix, Nix will all be 23 or older at the start of next season. In the long run is them being a year or 2 older than some of the other prospects a big deal in the long run?

Are their underwhelming performances at their prior schools the bigger story line? I love all 3 of them (Penix's injury history not so much) so curious how they will be viewed come draft time.
Didn't matter for Joe Burrow  
jinkies : 11/20/2023 10:25 am : link
and he's the second best QB in the NFL.

So, doesn't matter.
It's not everything, but I would say it's definitely a consideration  
Anakim : 11/20/2023 10:27 am : link
You expect a senior/fifth-year senior to be more polished than an underclassman. Ideally you'd like to get a QB on the younger side who has room for growth and a higher ceiling.

That's why as good as Bo Nix has been this year (and he's been really fucking good), I'm just not interested in him in the top-10. He'll be 24 on Draft Day, so yeah, I'd expect him to dominate younger guys because he's more physically developed and has more experience. He's perfect for a ready-made, non-rebuilding team.
RE: Didn't matter for Joe Burrow  
Everyone Relax : 11/20/2023 10:31 am : link
In comment 16296577 jinkies said:
Quote:
and he's the second best QB in the NFL.

So, doesn't matter.

Fair, but he was also buried at Ohio State and didnt even have 2 full seasons at LSU. He also tore up the SEC which is why amongst all the prospects I named Daniels is the most impressive
QBs tend to last  
RetroJint : 11/20/2023 10:33 am : link
longer . Some age very well . But I still would say that younger is better at any position. If a guy is 24 you missed out on two seasons of his prime athleticism .
draft age  
Sec_149 : 11/20/2023 10:37 am : link
What is a teams expectations when they draft a player.
Do they draft a player with the thought that they will play for the team for 10 years. Or would you consider it a success if you get 4-6 years out of a player.

I think that is more of a deciding factor, than their age.
It is going to be a really fun  
Dnew15 : 11/20/2023 10:41 am : link
Draft season.

It’s the only good part about needing a QB.
Its a bit of an anomaly  
larryflower37 : 11/20/2023 10:54 am : link
Because of the Covid 5th year, many more players have taken advantage of that 5th year.
Might see more players playing longer in college with NIL money just starting to hit it's stride.
It depends on the QB  
Mike in NY : 11/20/2023 10:57 am : link
If you are relying on a runner and he has a lot more tread on his legs that is worrisome. You also have to be more careful with your evaluations to determine if what you are seeing now is a result of changes to their game that will carry over to the NFL level or just being more experienced/physically mature than their opposition.
RE: It depends on the QB  
Everyone Relax : 11/20/2023 11:02 am : link
In comment 16296661 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
If you are relying on a runner and he has a lot more tread on his legs that is worrisome. You also have to be more careful with your evaluations to determine if what you are seeing now is a result of changes to their game that will carry over to the NFL level or just being more experienced/physically mature than their opposition.

This is a big thing in my eyes. A guy like Maye is a pass first QB who can run but doesnt have to. Daniels is a bit more 50/50 to his game.
It matters a little  
JT039 : 11/20/2023 11:04 am : link
Based on games played and experience. They should be better.

I look at more of their competition. Big stat lines against bad defenses doesn’t move the needle for me.
It shouldn't matter at all  
speedywheels : 11/20/2023 11:05 am : link
Guys like Nix and Penix have their warts, but age should not be considered one of them
We're not talking Chris Weinke old  
Blueworm : 11/20/2023 11:09 am : link
like 28, are we?
RE: We're not talking Chris Weinke old  
Everyone Relax : 11/20/2023 11:12 am : link
In comment 16296684 Blueworm said:
Quote:
like 28, are we?

Weeden was the more egregious one. No idea how that guy was drafted in the first round
RE: We're not talking Chris Weinke old  
speedywheels : 11/20/2023 11:14 am : link
In comment 16296684 Blueworm said:
Quote:
like 28, are we?


ON draft day, Nix and Penix will be 24 (Nix in Feb, Penix in May). Daniels will be 23 (next month)
Burrow was 22 on draft day  
ZogZerg : 11/20/2023 11:35 am : link
I wouldn't draft QB older than 23 on draft day. At least one that you expect to be a franchise guy.

RE: Burrow was 22 on draft day  
speedywheels : 11/20/2023 12:10 pm : link
In comment 16296730 ZogZerg said:
Quote:
I wouldn't draft QB older than 23 on draft day. At least one that you expect to be a franchise guy.


Burrow was 23 on draft day (born December 96, drafted April 2020). Daniels will also be 23 (also born in December). Penix and Nix are 7 and 10 months older than Daniels, respectively.
Foe me, QB age is not the real factor  
Matt M. : 11/20/2023 12:23 pm : link
as much as playing experience. For example, a 5th year senior at 23 who red-shirted and then sat behind 2 other QBs, and had essentially 1 year of play is not the same as one who played for 3 or 4 years and is much more polished/seasoned by draft time (in theory).

Also, with the ease of transfer now, and the COVID 5th year, we are seeing some older than normal draftees, especially at QB.
RE: It's not everything, but I would say it's definitely a consideration  
k2tampa : 11/20/2023 12:23 pm : link
In comment 16296584 Anakim said:
Quote:
You expect a senior/fifth-year senior to be more polished than an underclassman. Ideally you'd like to get a QB on the younger side who has room for growth and a higher ceiling.

That's why as good as Bo Nix has been this year (and he's been really fucking good), I'm just not interested in him in the top-10. He'll be 24 on Draft Day, so yeah, I'd expect him to dominate younger guys because he's more physically developed and has more experience. He's perfect for a ready-made, non-rebuilding team.


That wasn't Parcells' theory. He wanted guys who stayed in school until they graduated and played at least 3 years.
More about injury history and sack history  
Chip : 11/20/2023 12:42 pm : link
in my mind.
If you look at the grand scheme  
pjcas18 : 11/20/2023 12:45 pm : link
it shouldn't really matter.

The only consideration should be a younger QB may not be as experienced and may not have proven their worth as much or long as an older QB.

In the big picture though, 1st contract is 4 years, you get the 5th year option with a 1st round pick and then say you extend the QB to another 5 year deal.

Does a 21 year old rookie being 31 after those 10 years mean anything over a 23 year old being 33?

not to me, but people do get hung up on it.
I mean it's more awesome if a QB is a finished product at 21  
jinkies : 11/20/2023 12:48 pm : link
but how many QBs ever reach Burrow's level in college? The answer is close to zero. So great production is great production. Burrow did extra development in college and it worked out for him.

I think traits, processing as much as you can tell, intelligence, decisiveness, etc are all more important.
RE: It shouldn't matter at all  
LauderdaleMatty : 11/20/2023 12:53 pm : link
In comment 16296678 speedywheels said:
Quote:
Guys like Nix and Penix have their warts, but age should not be considered one of them


Its not age. The fact that they are 5-6 years older than the kids they are playing agains matters. Covid adding another year really skews this as well. Saying age shouldn't be a factor is silly
Age matters when  
Amtoft : 11/20/2023 12:55 pm : link
it comes to potential usually. So if a player is 20 years old and he is a really good player the chances are he hasn't reached his full potential yet. Someone that is 23-25 is nearing their full potential thus doesn't have as much room for improvement. Does this mean all 20-22 continue to improve... No. Does this mean all 23-25 stop progressing... No. However, it is more like that a 20-22 year old will have more room to grow than a 23-25 year old. That is all it means.
It matters  
Rave7 : 11/20/2023 12:56 pm : link
as a secondary criteria.
I would choose younger prospect if everything gradewise is the same.
Jayden Daniels he will be 23 4 months . That’s not young but not too old. I’m ok with it.
Basically Jayden Daniels would be the same age as when Burrow was drafted.
No issue if prospect is good esp qb.
RE: RE: It shouldn't matter at all  
speedywheels : 11/20/2023 1:13 pm : link
In comment 16296888 LauderdaleMatty said:
Quote:
In comment 16296678 speedywheels said:


Quote:


Guys like Nix and Penix have their warts, but age should not be considered one of them



Its not age. The fact that they are 5-6 years older than the kids they are playing agains matters. Covid adding another year really skews this as well. Saying age shouldn't be a factor is silly


When I say age doesn't matter, I meant it in literal terms; ie, for people saying "well, because he's 24, a team will only get 9 years of his prime instead of 10" - that's what I think is silly. Being 6 -10 months older than when MOST players come out anyway isn't really a big deal in the overall scheme of things

Now, if the argument is "he's able to put up better numbers than he would have because he's older/stronger/more mature (etc) than younger players", then that's a fair argument.

I will nitpick a bit - the gap isn't 5-6 years. Most athletes come into college a bit older and/or are redshirted at some point, so i'd argue its a potential 3-4 year gap. But your point still holds...

Eli  
Steve in Greenwich : 11/20/2023 1:25 pm : link
was 23 when he was drafted; 5 years at Ole Miss and even with that it still took him time to hit his stride. Older doesn't necessarily mean they will hit the ground running and it also doesn't mean they will have a shorter career. He still had a 16 year career despite being 23 at the time he was drafted. Age really doesn't mean anything to me when it comes to QB.
I can see NBA teams wanting younger players,  
Section331 : 11/20/2023 1:33 pm : link
peak years come earlier for them, but not so much with the NFL, and especially not with QB’s. Who cares if the guy is 24, if he’s good, you’ll still have him for 10+ years.
hahaha Age  
Amtoft : 11/20/2023 1:37 pm : link
isn't about how long you have a player. Unless you are talking RB. It is about their long term potential.
RE: Eli  
speedywheels : 11/20/2023 1:40 pm : link
In comment 16296934 Steve in Greenwich said:
Quote:
was 23 when he was drafted; 5 years at Ole Miss and even with that it still took him time to hit his stride. Older doesn't necessarily mean they will hit the ground running and it also doesn't mean they will have a shorter career. He still had a 16 year career despite being 23 at the time he was drafted. Age really doesn't mean anything to me when it comes to QB.


Agree for the most part. Eli was never very mobile, so that skill set didn't "decline" for him as he got older. But for a guy like Lamar - who isn't the best passer, but obviously has great running skills - he could drop off quite a bit in his mid-late 30's. Unless, of course, his passing skills significantly improve and he becomes less reliant on his legs as he gets older.
RE: hahaha Age  
speedywheels : 11/20/2023 1:44 pm : link
In comment 16296957 Amtoft said:
Quote:
isn't about how long you have a player. Unless you are talking RB. It is about their long term potential.


Age isn't an issue for RB's as so much it's the pounding take in the pros. You only really get 5-6 great years from a running back. So if they come into the league slightly at an older age, they will be at their peak until a slightly older age.
RE: RE: hahaha Age  
Amtoft : 11/20/2023 2:00 pm : link
In comment 16296968 speedywheels said:
Quote:
In comment 16296957 Amtoft said:


Quote:


isn't about how long you have a player. Unless you are talking RB. It is about their long term potential.



Age isn't an issue for RB's as so much it's the pounding take in the pros. You only really get 5-6 great years from a running back. So if they come into the league slightly at an older age, they will be at their peak until a slightly older age.


If you get a good 21 year old RB you will probably get 7-9 years out of him. If you get a 24 year old RB you aren't getting 7-9 years. Wear and tear matter I agree but so does age.
They still  
Dankbeerman : 11/20/2023 3:17 pm : link
have 12 years to play before 35. If they are good enough to be your QB for 12 years you take them.
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