QB Depth ... "Closed" Competition???

I don't see why he wouldn't be ready by week 1 though, it appears to be a standard ACL tear.

But, I'd expect Jones to be holding a iPad next year.

Let's get there first. There's a million things that have to happen first. Way too many variables.

Recovery. A lot of posters think he’s clearly going to be ready by a Sept. what’s the basis for that projection?

In comment 16297895 Sean said:

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I don't see why he wouldn't be ready by week 1 though, it appears to be a standard ACL tear. But, I'd expect Jones to be holding a iPad next year.

You sure about that (week 1)? ACL reconstructions take about 6 to 9 months to heal from, is that accurate? Maybe for average folks the shorter end of the estimate applies, but for professional athletes, maybe the longer estimate is more applicable (some could argue the other way around?). To my knowledge, DJ hasn't had his surgery yet, is that right? I believe they're waiting for the swelling to go down or the conditions to be right before the actual surgery. I haven't heard anything about it yet. So I'm very doubtful about week 1, in short.

In comment 16297908 cosmicj said:

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Recovery. A lot of posters think he’s clearly going to be ready by a Sept. what’s the basis for that projection?

Some comparables:

- Kyler Murray tore his ACL on December 12 last year. Came back November 12, so exactly 11 months.
- Joe Burrow tore his ACL on November 22 in 2020. He was back by the next year's opener (9/12), so that's 9.5 months to a return.
- Daniel Jones tore his on November 5. If he's on the Burrow schedule he'll be back for the opener, if he's on the Murray schedule he's probably a PUP guy targeting October.

- Burrow's surgery was 10 days after the tear.
- Murray's surgery was 22 days after the tear.

So that likely plays a role.

Thanks. That clarifies things.

In comment 16297929 cosmicj said:

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Thanks. That clarifies things.

My guess: I think PUP is more likely than the opener but I wouldn't wager any money on that prediction.

the best chance to win. I don't see why Jones would be inserted into the lineup at any point next year unless he showed he was the best QB on the team.

I don't expect to see Jones start next year unless someone else is injured.

and the Giants draft a QB, Jones will return as a backup,

The Giants aren't fun to watch but there's a lot of intrigue remaining in the season:

- Path 1: The Giants lose out. They probably wind up picking #1 or #2. There's basically no way they don't take a QB. DeVito may wind up on the practice squad again or get cut.
- Path 2: DeVito continues his growth and the Giants win a few more games, getting them to draft at #10 or #11 or so. At that point DeVito becomes a factor for next year as a starter--at a bare minimum he's your backup and a strong contender for Opening Day starter.
- Path 3: Giants wind up drafting #5 or #6--they don't completely tank but lose most of the rest of their games. Think 4 or 5 wins total.

Paths 1 and 3 seem most likely by a lot. 3 is the most interesting and probably the most frustrating, because I have no idea how Schoen would approach it. Trade up? Trade back? Sign another stopgap? Roll with DeVito again? It's a really intriguing offseason.

But was it mentioned Jones did not have the surgery yet?

In comment 16297987 Sammo85 said:

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But was it mentioned Jones did not have the surgery yet?

Apparently it'll be Wednesday, which is 17 days post-injury. Right between Burrow and Murray.

I expect Jones will be ready to go opening day. If he is not, he will not play another down for NYG.

In comment 16297923 RHPeel said:

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- Burrow's surgery was 10 days after the tear. - Murray's surgery was 22 days after the tear. So that likely plays a role.

Usually, longer wait times have better outcomes. Those number are counter intuitive. New thinking is to et the swelling go down completely before surgery.

We have no clue on the severity of the tear.
All of it is pure speculation until after the surgery.

is too late just to plug and play. He wouldn't have practiced with the team, played in any scrimmages or preseason games. The Giants will need a different solution for opening day starter.

Imagine PUP is in DJ's future for Game 1 and then becoming active sometime in October.

Not best or worst case, just likely.

Unless DeVito and rookie QB are hurt Jones should not play. My eyes cannot take it .

In comment 16298279 ThomasG said:

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is too late just to plug and play. He wouldn't have practiced with the team, played in any scrimmages or preseason games. The Giants will need a different solution for opening day starter. Imagine PUP is in DJ's future for Game 1 and then becoming active sometime in October. Not best or worst case, just likely.

He may not be ready to play, but he will likely be starting to practice for a long period of time before he is game ready.
We have no idea on recovery time because everybody heals differently. 100 years ago Walter Payton was ready in 8 months as a RB and the surgery is so much better today.

I think he will be ready Sept 1st. No reason, no knowledge just a guess. Of course he maybe be ready to be backup if they draft a QB

In comment 16298290 section125 said:

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In comment 16298279 ThomasG said: Quote: is too late just to plug and play. He wouldn't have practiced with the team, played in any scrimmages or preseason games. The Giants will need a different solution for opening day starter. Imagine PUP is in DJ's future for Game 1 and then becoming active sometime in October. Not best or worst case, just likely. He may not be ready to play, but he will likely be starting to practice for a long period of time before he is game ready. We have no idea on recovery time because everybody heals differently. 100 years ago Walter Payton was ready in 8 months as a RB and the surgery is so much better today. I think he will be ready Sept 1st. No reason, no knowledge just a guess. Of course he maybe be ready to be backup if they draft a QB

I think you are being on the aggressive side of that timeline. And to say nothing of the fact that PUP rules do not let you practice so there will have to be some decisions made WHILE he is still rehabbing.

Presume October is a reasonable expectation for him to get into a game if he had to.

In comment 16297969 RHPeel said:

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The Giants aren't fun to watch but there's a lot of intrigue remaining in the season: - Path 1: The Giants lose out. They probably wind up picking #1 or #2. There's basically no way they don't take a QB. DeVito may wind up on the practice squad again or get cut. - Path 2: DeVito continues his growth and the Giants win a few more games, getting them to draft at #10 or #11 or so. At that point DeVito becomes a factor for next year as a starter--at a bare minimum he's your backup and a strong contender for Opening Day starter. - Path 3: Giants wind up drafting #5 or #6--they don't completely tank but lose most of the rest of their games. Think 4 or 5 wins total. Paths 1 and 3 seem most likely by a lot. 3 is the most interesting and probably the most frustrating, because I have no idea how Schoen would approach it. Trade up? Trade back? Sign another stopgap? Roll with DeVito again? It's a really intriguing offseason.

What about Tyrod coming back?

In comment 16298327 SirLoinOfBeef said:

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In comment 16297969 RHPeel said: Quote: The Giants aren't fun to watch but there's a lot of intrigue remaining in the season: - Path 1: The Giants lose out. They probably wind up picking #1 or #2. There's basically no way they don't take a QB. DeVito may wind up on the practice squad again or get cut. - Path 2: DeVito continues his growth and the Giants win a few more games, getting them to draft at #10 or #11 or so. At that point DeVito becomes a factor for next year as a starter--at a bare minimum he's your backup and a strong contender for Opening Day starter. - Path 3: Giants wind up drafting #5 or #6--they don't completely tank but lose most of the rest of their games. Think 4 or 5 wins total. Paths 1 and 3 seem most likely by a lot. 3 is the most interesting and probably the most frustrating, because I have no idea how Schoen would approach it. Trade up? Trade back? Sign another stopgap? Roll with DeVito again? It's a really intriguing offseason. What about Tyrod coming back?

I guess you can bring Tyrod back in "Path 2" as your stopgap. I think they're going to need to go cheaper though given Jones' cap hit.

he is done as the Giants starter because whoever we draft is likely to start. In that scenario, the backup would be an interesting decision. The next few weeks for DeVito may determine if he fills that role.

If Jones is ready to start the season, it becomes an interesting choice bet. Jones and rookie to start. Several factors could weigh in, but if rookie is deemed ready (or ready enough), then I say he should start. Do we keep DeVito as a cheap backup, because we will need one beginning 2025 when Jones is gone and if DeVito plays well enough the next few weeks, he may not be protected on the PS.

In comment 16298302 ThomasG said:

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I think you are being on the aggressive side of that timeline. And to say nothing of the fact that PUP rules do not let you practice so there will have to be some decisions made WHILE he is still rehabbing. Presume October is a reasonable expectation for him to get into a game if he had to.

It may be aggressive, but Jones really does work hard.

Good point on PUP - but that does not prevent him from working up elsewhere. Can't practice with the team at the complex.

In comment 16298150 Thegratefulhead said:

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I expect Jones will be ready to go opening day. If he is not, he will not play another down for NYG.

I think this is probably accurate from my vantage point as well.

I think DJ's injury guarantee for 2025 makes his 2024 outlook murky, particularly if the Giants draft a QB in a premium slot and if DJ is not ready for the opener.

If DJ were ready for the opener, I think he probably gets the nod with the rookie waiting in the wings. If the Giants play well, and DJ plays well, DJ stays at QB1. If the Giants play well and DJ does not play well, the rookie gets a shot. If the Giants don't play well, the rookie gets a shot regardless of how DJ is playing.

But if DJ isn't ready for the opener, there's at least a decent chance that the rookie gets the nod to start the season. In that case, I don't see the Giants switching back to DJ at all, regardless of whether the Giants are playing well or whether the rookie is playing well. Why risk the extra dead money in 2025 if the hotshot rookie already has the starting gig?

All of that is based on the assumption that the Giants will take a QB somewhere in the first two rounds of the draft. If they don't, I'm not sure how they approach the DJ situation (but I also don't see how they can justify not taking a QB with a high pick given DJ's injury history, regardless of how they view him as a QB when healthy). Personally, I'd still be tempted to give DJ the Derek Carr treatment and keep him in bubble wrap to avoid triggering the injury guarantee for 2025.

If the Giants agree, then maybe all the "trial balloons" we thought we were seeing were actually just a preemptive campaign to protect against a repeat of the Logan Ryan grievance (this time with much higher stakes). That would demonstrate a level of foresight that we haven't witnessed from the Giants in ages, though.

In comment 16298461 section125 said:

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In comment 16298302 ThomasG said: Quote: I think you are being on the aggressive side of that timeline. And to say nothing of the fact that PUP rules do not let you practice so there will have to be some decisions made WHILE he is still rehabbing. Presume October is a reasonable expectation for him to get into a game if he had to. It may be aggressive, but Jones really does work hard. Good point on PUP - but that does not prevent him from working up elsewhere. Can't practice with the team at the complex.

11 months is timeline. For all the ones you hear about that are less there are just as many that are longer.

And practicing while not being under Center with the starting Offense is not really good practice...wouldn't you agree?

Especially that last part about the so-called trial balloons.

In comment 16298479 Gatorade Dunk said:

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In comment 16298150 Thegratefulhead said: Quote: I expect Jones will be ready to go opening day. If he is not, he will not play another down for NYG. I think this is probably accurate from my vantage point as well. I think DJ's injury guarantee for 2025 makes his 2024 outlook murky, particularly if the Giants draft a QB in a premium slot and if DJ is not ready for the opener. If DJ were ready for the opener, I think he probably gets the nod with the rookie waiting in the wings. If the Giants play well, and DJ plays well, DJ stays at QB1. If the Giants play well and DJ does not play well, the rookie gets a shot. If the Giants don't play well, the rookie gets a shot regardless of how DJ is playing. But if DJ isn't ready for the opener, there's at least a decent chance that the rookie gets the nod to start the season. In that case, I don't see the Giants switching back to DJ at all, regardless of whether the Giants are playing well or whether the rookie is playing well. Why risk the extra dead money in 2025 if the hotshot rookie already has the starting gig? All of that is based on the assumption that the Giants will take a QB somewhere in the first two rounds of the draft. If they don't, I'm not sure how they approach the DJ situation (but I also don't see how they can justify not taking a QB with a high pick given DJ's injury history, regardless of how they view him as a QB when healthy). Personally, I'd still be tempted to give DJ the Derek Carr treatment and keep him in bubble wrap to avoid triggering the injury guarantee for 2025. If the Giants agree, then maybe all the "trial balloons" we thought we were seeing were actually just a preemptive campaign to protect against a repeat of the Logan Ryan grievance (this time with much higher stakes). That would demonstrate a level of foresight that we haven't witnessed from the Giants in ages, though.

Very solid post, wish I wrote it.