Let the bidding begin! This should be interesting as it will be both NY teams bidding for a guy they both want badly. Its gonna take probably 8-10 years and over 200 mill to sign him.
postings being a bust. He seems a legit pitcher, but how well does the Japanes League translate to MLB? Ohtani is legit/a star. Is Yamamoto comparable?
RE: If they're angling to trade for a bat(s), eg Soto
it sounds like pitching prospects will be moved. This could be viewed as a sound way to fill the void at the MLB level.
Was going to say the same thing. FA signing like this opens up the availability of prospects and/or MLB pitchers (Nestor for example) to be dealt for bats.
This team needs a major overhaul and they need to reshape the core. I expect there to be numerous moving parts here.
postings being a bust. He seems a legit pitcher, but how well does the Japanes League translate to MLB? Ohtani is legit/a star. Is Yamamoto comparable?
Senga had a fantastic season for the Mets and Yamamoto is considered to be superior to him. I think it’s unfair to compare anyone to Ohtani. He’s a unicorn
postings being a bust. He seems a legit pitcher, but how well does the Japanes League translate to MLB? Ohtani is legit/a star. Is Yamamoto comparable?
Yamamoto isn't a hitter also, so no he is not comparable to Ohtani.
postings being a bust. He seems a legit pitcher, but how well does the Japanes League translate to MLB? Ohtani is legit/a star. Is Yamamoto comparable?
Tanaka worked out pretty well, and he pitched for years with a partially torn elbow ligament
NPB to MLB transitions have almost all been successful
Tanaka, Darvish, Maeda, Ohtani, Senga
Kikuchi isn't great but at 3 years 43 million (the price he signed with Seattle for) he was a relatively low risk and still a viable MLB SP (11 wins 3.86 era in 2023)
This is no longer "flying blind". There will always be busts but Yamamoto is the real deal. Arguably the most successful NPB pitcher of the modern era. Sasaki probably has more traditionally "MLB ace" stuff (reminds some of deGrom) but he's far less proven and won't be posted until 2027.
Think the Mets are gonna need to offer more years and money to YY if he has a preference for the Yanks. Hopefully, Senga can help to recruit him from the Mets' perspective.
I was referring to Ohtani the pitcher, only. Know nothing of Senga. Tanaka was very good, true.
Was looking for comparison to Ohtani the pitcher and how Yamamoto compares. Ohtani would be excellent if only either a pitcher or a hitter.
But I get the idea everyone feels this guy(even if slightly built) is going to very successful.
Apples to oranges. Ohtani threw 565 total innings in Japan, Yamamoto has thrown almost double that. Yamamoto as I said, is probably the most successful NPB starting pitcher of the modern era. Best Japanese pitcher ever is debatable, Yutaka Enatsu (who tried out for the Brewers at the very end of his career) is probably up there though.
Think the Mets are gonna need to offer more years and money to YY if he has a preference for the Yanks. Hopefully, Senga can help to recruit him from the Mets' perspective.
Hopefully you’re right but there’s Ben some recent rumblings that he prefers to be on the West Coast. Of course, money talks but you never know what his priorities are
I was referring to Ohtani the pitcher, only. Know nothing of Senga. Tanaka was very good, true.
Was looking for comparison to Ohtani the pitcher and how Yamamoto compares. Ohtani would be excellent if only either a pitcher or a hitter.
But I get the idea everyone feels this guy(even if slightly built) is going to very successful.
Apples to oranges. Ohtani threw 565 total innings in Japan, Yamamoto has thrown almost double that. Yamamoto as I said, is probably the most successful NPB starting pitcher of the modern era. Best Japanese pitcher ever is debatable, Yutaka Enatsu (who tried out for the Brewers at the very end of his career) is probably up there though.
Thanks Dan. And comp to Cone is helpful and would be pretty nice.
Appreciate it.
was really 1 of 1. His delivery was created by he and his father who worked at Boeing. Coming out of HS, nobody was a believer (almost went undrafted).
RE: Well, Lee would certainly be a change of direction...
Think the Mets are gonna need to offer more years and money to YY if he has a preference for the Yanks. Hopefully, Senga can help to recruit him from the Mets' perspective.
postings being a bust. He seems a legit pitcher, but how well does the Japanes League translate to MLB? Ohtani is legit/a star. Is Yamamoto comparable?
He’s popular but, not Ohtani popular. The problem with some Japanese starting pitchers have acclimating to MLB is that, the ball is smaller in Japan and, they pitch every 6 days. My worry about this guy is he’s short and may not have the stamina to pitch every 5 days.
RE: RE: This might come down to the Mets and Yanks.
Think the Mets are gonna need to offer more years and money to YY if he has a preference for the Yanks. Hopefully, Senga can help to recruit him from the Mets' perspective.
and Joel Wolfe ;)
Exactly! Hopefully he can make Cashman eat his words!
Senga has been out promoting the Mets to Yamamotto.
It appears that he has a long standing friendship with Yamamotto.
Quote:
He’s (Senga) also made it clear as far back as August that he’s willing to help the Mets make the pitch to lure Yamamoto to Queens.
“I have known him since he was 20 years old,” Senga said to the New York Post through an interpreter. “He’s been at the top level since he was very young, and I know he has a ton of talent. He is an amazing player.”
mean much. Yamamoto was teammates for Yoshida for years (and they too are close), Yamamoto played golf last week with Lars Nootbar and his mom reportedly is very close with his mom. Red Sox and Cardinals are 2 other teams expected to pursue him. We can find connections with most teams. Joel Wolfe (who did recently rip Cashman) has a long standing relationship with the Yankees
Boston does, however, have an advantage over the competition. Yamamoto and Masataka Yoshida were Orix teammates for six seasons and took home the gold together at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics before the Buffaloes posted Yoshida last winter and he signed his five-year deal with Boston. The two have kept in touch, Yoshida told the Herald in September. “We’re close to each other,” he said.
“My mom talks to [Yamamoto’s] mom daily,” Nootbaar continued. “I went and saw him throw in his first playoff game, and I sat with his mom at the game. We chatted a little bit, but there wasn’t anything that I could tell her that she didn’t already know because my mom had already filled her in [about Nootbaar playing for the Cardinals]. Yoshi and Roki Sasaki, the flamethrower and young kid, our moms all talk daily. I have a great relationship with both of those guys, and now that Yoshi is coming over to MLB, I’ve been talking to him a little bit more, and I plan on seeing him again later this offseason.”
mind. Either the presence of another Japanese star is a deterrent or it's an advantage, seems like people are being very selective when it is either one.
going to go ahead and say, we have no idea what he's looking for and what he wants/doesn't want and that includes coast, his opinion regarding playing with another Japanese star, how close a team is to winning (on paper), if $ aka if the top bid is what's going to motivate him. I'm guessing those who know include himself, his agent and very few other people at this time.
is *slightly* more clarify in regard to Ohtani given the fact he was a FA once before and didn't even grant a single east coast team a final meeting (the only 2 non-WC teams who were finalists were the Cubs and Texas), but even then, does that still hold true? Who knows? The reporting seems to suggest that to be the case.
but if the Mets miss out on Yamamoto and Ohtani (who never sounded realistic for them anyway and as a non-pitcher is less of a need IMO) and now that Nola is off the board, how do they pivot to stay competitive?
The Braves and Phillies are a solid tier above them from a roster standpoint.
It's almost at the point they should trade Alonso. I know fans have warped visions of what they'd get back, but I don't see a long-term contract as smart for him for many reasons and if contending this year is a long shot then if his value is higher now than the deadline a trade makes sense.
Or....do they empty the farm and try and lure some SP in a trade?
Or...Is it Montgomery and some lesser options to flesh out the rotation?
Or do they get patient and put the best team on the field they can while still building up a core of young talent to strike when the time is right?
A lot rides on this one player (who may or may not pan out).
think the Mets and Yankees are both in similar situations where their most realistic course of being "better" in 2024 is their internal underperformers and young players play better than they did in 2023. Obviously, for the Yankees adding a superstar like Juan Soto sure helps matters, but both teams were filled with underperformers and young players who didn't hit the ground running. The Yankees had 2 members of their rotation (who were expected to be key components) post era's near 7, Mets with Marte etc. They will both add external players but better health and better internal performance is going to really be the key for 2024.
but if the Mets miss out on Yamamoto and Ohtani (who never sounded realistic for them anyway and as a non-pitcher is less of a need IMO) and now that Nola is off the board, how do they pivot to stay competitive?
The Braves and Phillies are a solid tier above them from a roster standpoint.
It's almost at the point they should trade Alonso. I know fans have warped visions of what they'd get back, but I don't see a long-term contract as smart for him for many reasons and if contending this year is a long shot then if his value is higher now than the deadline a trade makes sense.
Or....do they empty the farm and try and lure some SP in a trade?
Or...Is it Montgomery and some lesser options to flesh out the rotation?
Or do they get patient and put the best team on the field they can while still building up a core of young talent to strike when the time is right?
A lot rides on this one player (who may or may not pan out).
If I’m the Mets I’m signing Montgomery regardless, because they need multiple arms. Without Yamamoto I’m not sure where they are getting the frontline starter they need unless it’s in a trade.
think the Mets and Yankees are both in similar situations where their most realistic course of being "better" in 2024 is their internal underperformers and young players play better than they did in 2023. Obviously, for the Yankees adding a superstar like Juan Soto sure helps matters, but both teams were filled with underperformers and young players who didn't hit the ground running. The Yankees had 2 members of their rotation (who were expected to be key components) post era's near 7, Mets with Marte etc. They will both add external players but better health and better internal performance is going to really be the key for 2024.
True, the Yankees are in a much different spot than the Mets related to Yamamoto.
they have Cole, an ace, and then some under performing pitchers who can be fixed ideally for them like Rodon so they're really just filling in on the rotation without Yamamoto.
Yamamoto obviously helps the Yankees (if he's the goods) but he's not as critical to them as he is to the Mets.
but if the Mets miss out on Yamamoto and Ohtani (who never sounded realistic for them anyway and as a non-pitcher is less of a need IMO) and now that Nola is off the board, how do they pivot to stay competitive?
The Braves and Phillies are a solid tier above them from a roster standpoint.
It's almost at the point they should trade Alonso. I know fans have warped visions of what they'd get back, but I don't see a long-term contract as smart for him for many reasons and if contending this year is a long shot then if his value is higher now than the deadline a trade makes sense.
Or....do they empty the farm and try and lure some SP in a trade?
Or...Is it Montgomery and some lesser options to flesh out the rotation?
Or do they get patient and put the best team on the field they can while still building up a core of young talent to strike when the time is right?
A lot rides on this one player (who may or may not pan out).
i think Soto is the more pivotal guy than yamamoto.
if they miss on yamamoto, then just hit the next guy down, which is probably montgomery. if they get montgomery, imanaga, lugo or some combo like that i think they are ok.
if they don't trade for soto then i think burnes enters the equation since they will probably just sign one of the OF/DH types.
soto is the key for me though. 25 years old and puts the middle of met lineup on the level of philly/atlanta. gives them a lot more flexibility to play hardball with alonso and be willing to let him walk next year. he's an mvp candidate they can build the next decade around bridging the lindor/alonso/nimmo/senga/diaz group with the talent currently on the farm.
while awesome, will cost a ton, and I read it's unlikely he signs an extension (will test free agency) and doesn't help the rotation or the bullpen which to me are bigger priorities.
The Mets (and Yankees) can win without adding Soto IMO.
The Mets can't win without adding starting pitching and bullpen help and while it doesn't have to be Yamamoto he's probably the best one they can add without costing prospects and/or draft compensation.
while awesome, will cost a ton, and I read it's unlikely he signs an extension (will test free agency) and doesn't help the rotation or the bullpen which to me are bigger priorities.
The Mets (and Yankees) can win without adding Soto IMO.
The Mets can't win without adding starting pitching and bullpen help and while it doesn't have to be Yamamoto he's probably the best one they can add without costing prospects and/or draft compensation.
the penalties are overrated, if you think a SP is that key take the $3-4m prospect cost penalty and sign Snell. Maybe he's not as good as last year but he has won 2 CY now so on a 4-6 year deal it's pretty like he contends for 1 if not 2 over the deal.
the mets are 100% desperate for pitching, but signing quality depth through the 6+ open slots on the full staff is just as important if not more important than any single SP (imo).
adding an every day core piece on a literal HOF trajectory at age 25 is once or twice in a decade opportunity. anyone other than jett williams is on the table for me.
Snell is more likely to get 7 years than 4. Nola just got 7 and he's the same age.
that's fair i was going off memory of where most projections were (which was pre-Nola), point was that over the rest of his prime which this next deal will cover it's probably a good chance he contends for another CY at some point.
while awesome, will cost a ton, and I read it's unlikely he signs an extension (will test free agency) and doesn't help the rotation or the bullpen which to me are bigger priorities.
The Mets (and Yankees) can win without adding Soto IMO.
The Mets can't win without adding starting pitching and bullpen help and while it doesn't have to be Yamamoto he's probably the best one they can add without costing prospects and/or draft compensation.
the penalties are overrated, if you think a SP is that key take the $3-4m prospect cost penalty and sign Snell. Maybe he's not as good as last year but he has won 2 CY now so on a 4-6 year deal it's pretty like he contends for 1 if not 2 over the deal.
the mets are 100% desperate for pitching, but signing quality depth through the 6+ open slots on the full staff is just as important if not more important than any single SP (imo).
adding an every day core piece on a literal HOF trajectory at age 25 is once or twice in a decade opportunity. anyone other than jett williams is on the table for me.
What penalties? Luxury tax? I wasn't even mentioning that. Or if you mean signing someone who was offered a QO, still wasn't my main point - only that Yamamoto is a no-brainer player the Mets should make a priority and if they miss out I would re-think the whole off-season/short-term and long-term plan.
The Mets have one legit starting pitcher on the team right now in Senga. Their #2 starter today is Quintana who was pretty good when he pitched, but he's 35. I've been there done that with relying on old starting pitchers.
The Mets need 3 legitimate starting pitchers. If they miss on Yamamoto I don't see them competing with the Braves and Phillies in 2024 with or without Soto - there are just not enough pitchers available without significant prospect costs in trades. because of that, I'd adjust my approach.
If they miss on Yamamoto, my preference with Soto is let someone up pony up the prospect haul and bank on Boras being legit about testing free agency and getting him then.
If they get Yamamoto, I'd say go all in on Soto now, and push for an extension (unlikely but try) and still add Montgomery or others and some bullpen help.
Then the gap is closer or closed with the Braves and Phillies.
remains an outstanding fit for the Braves. Would almost surprise me if doesn't happen.
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
Hearing that the Atlanta Braves are showing strong interest in the starting pitching market. 2 pitchers I would keep an eye on:
Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez.
the penalties for signing a player w/ a QO (Snell) amount to 3-4m
worth of prospects ($1m IFA, 2nd and 5th best draft picks, which will likely slot in around $2.5m).
my point was if you think a top of the rotation pitcher is the biggest critical factor for mets right now, which im not necessarily arguing yes/no, Snell just won his 2nd CY and the penalty is pretty light.
It's possible 1 player could decide to sign elsewhere even you offer the most money but if they offer the most money to both Yamamoto and Snell odds are they will get at least 1 of them.
RE: the penalties for signing a player w/ a QO (Snell) amount to 3-4m
worth of prospects ($1m IFA, 2nd and 5th best draft picks, which will likely slot in around $2.5m).
my point was if you think a top of the rotation pitcher is the biggest critical factor for mets right now, which im not necessarily arguing yes/no, Snell just won his 2nd CY and the penalty is pretty light.
It's possible 1 player could decide to sign elsewhere even you offer the most money but if they offer the most money to both Yamamoto and Snell odds are they will get at least 1 of them.
To boil down my point, unless and until the Mets add two legit starting pitchers (probably 3) (Yamamoto, Snell, Mongtomery, etc.) I cannot support pursuing Soto - especially without a guarantee he re-signs.
RE: RE: the penalties for signing a player w/ a QO (Snell) amount to 3-4m
worth of prospects ($1m IFA, 2nd and 5th best draft picks, which will likely slot in around $2.5m).
my point was if you think a top of the rotation pitcher is the biggest critical factor for mets right now, which im not necessarily arguing yes/no, Snell just won his 2nd CY and the penalty is pretty light.
It's possible 1 player could decide to sign elsewhere even you offer the most money but if they offer the most money to both Yamamoto and Snell odds are they will get at least 1 of them.
To boil down my point, unless and until the Mets add two legit starting pitchers (probably 3) (Yamamoto, Snell, Mongtomery, etc.) I cannot support pursuing Soto - especially without a guarantee he re-signs.
This happens to be such a quality year for SP I think I’d be pretty fine with almost any 3 of the top 10 or so as long as 1 of them is top 5. Obviously I’d hope that’s Yamamoto but if it’s snell or Montgomery plus 2 other quality sp (lugo, flaherty, imanaga, giolito etc) I think that’s very workable if you build a strong enough bp.
I think it’s a lot tougher to accurately rank sp outcomes than the odds are that Soto will be one of the most valuable every day players for the next 10 years. If u had to pick any 1 player over that time period it may be Soto.
is you may not get Soto the next 10 years, you may get him the next one, and you have depleted your farm, and if you don't get the SPs and bullpen help you need you're the 2024 version of the 2023 Padres
is you may not get Soto the next 10 years, you may get him the next one, and you have depleted your farm, and if you don't get the SPs and bullpen help you need you're the 2024 version of the 2023 Padres
How does that help?
As a boras client we can be fairly confident all u need to do is pay him the most, which is true of 90%+ of non Boras clients too.
RE: RE: RE: the penalties for signing a player w/ a QO (Snell) amount to 3-4m
This happens to be such a quality year for SP I think I’d be pretty fine with almost any 3 of the top 10 or so as long as 1 of them is top 5. Obviously I’d hope that’s Yamamoto but if it’s snell or Montgomery plus 2 other quality sp (lugo, flaherty, imanaga, giolito etc) I think that’s very workable if you build a strong enough bp.
I think it’s a lot tougher to accurately rank sp outcomes than the odds are that Soto will be one of the most valuable every day players for the next 10 years. If u had to pick any 1 player over that time period it may be Soto.
Yamamoto or Mongomery -for sure. Snell is a no go. Cohen has had a policy of not signing players who have a QO attached. I’m sure it’s not written in stone, but I can’t see them diverging from it for Snell. He’s got durability & control issues.
is you may not get Soto the next 10 years, you may get him the next one, and you have depleted your farm, and if you don't get the SPs and bullpen help you need you're the 2024 version of the 2023 Padres
How does that help?
As a boras client we can be fairly confident all u need to do is pay him the most, which is true of 90%+ of non Boras clients too.
Which is why Soto is contingent for me on adding the SP's/bullpen help to become a contender, if they don't do that first, then wait until Soto is a FA and be the highest bidder and save the prospects.
It would be terrible to empty the farm for Soto, miss out on the SP's, and subsequently not contend and then the Mets could have just signed Soto as a FA.
is you may not get Soto the next 10 years, you may get him the next one, and you have depleted your farm, and if you don't get the SPs and bullpen help you need you're the 2024 version of the 2023 Padres
How does that help?
As a boras client we can be fairly confident all u need to do is pay him the most, which is true of 90%+ of non Boras clients too.
Which is why Soto is contingent for me on adding the SP's/bullpen help to become a contender, if they don't do that first, then wait until Soto is a FA and be the highest bidder and save the prospects.
It would be terrible to empty the farm for Soto, miss out on the SP's, and subsequently not contend and then the Mets could have just signed Soto as a FA.
As a rental empty the farm is unlikely. It will be more than Lindor cost but shouldn’t be that much more.
could be wrong but I believe the only QO FA the Mets have ever heavily pursued under Steve Cohen was George Springer.
Nobody last off-season, nobody in 2021
depending on who you believe they tried to get Realmuto and they also went for Bauer. i think all of those were pre-eppler who seemed to last year specifically plan to maximize QO returns (bassitt, jdg).
whether or not stearns goes there is on the list of things that will remain to be seen but in milwaukee im pretty sure lorenzo cain was a QO free agent and obviously his biggest move was yelich ahead of his age 26 season (and there are a lot of similarities there with soto).
whether or not they need to sign a QO fa this year very much depends on how big of a difference they see between snell and the others without QO. having the hardware he has doesnt mean he's necessarily head and shoulders better than anyone else going forward, it's a pretty strong track record though so if we accept that nobody knows the future with any certainty he's clearly got a chance to end up the most productive SP from this year's FA if his next 5 years are like the prior 5.
Yes.
Was going to say the same thing. FA signing like this opens up the availability of prospects and/or MLB pitchers (Nestor for example) to be dealt for bats.
This team needs a major overhaul and they need to reshape the core. I expect there to be numerous moving parts here.
Senga had a fantastic season for the Mets and Yamamoto is considered to be superior to him. I think it’s unfair to compare anyone to Ohtani. He’s a unicorn
Yamamoto isn't a hitter also, so no he is not comparable to Ohtani.
Tanaka worked out pretty well, and he pitched for years with a partially torn elbow ligament
Team BA: .227 (29th out of 30 teams)
Team OBP .304 (27th out of 30 teams)
Can't pitch your way out of this futility.
Was looking for comparison to Ohtani the pitcher and how Yamamoto compares. Ohtani would be excellent if only either a pitcher or a hitter.
But I get the idea everyone feels this guy(even if slightly built) is going to very successful.
Tanaka, Darvish, Maeda, Ohtani, Senga
Kikuchi isn't great but at 3 years 43 million (the price he signed with Seattle for) he was a relatively low risk and still a viable MLB SP (11 wins 3.86 era in 2023)
This is no longer "flying blind". There will always be busts but Yamamoto is the real deal. Arguably the most successful NPB pitcher of the modern era. Sasaki probably has more traditionally "MLB ace" stuff (reminds some of deGrom) but he's far less proven and won't be posted until 2027.
Was looking for comparison to Ohtani the pitcher and how Yamamoto compares. Ohtani would be excellent if only either a pitcher or a hitter.
But I get the idea everyone feels this guy(even if slightly built) is going to very successful.
Apples to oranges. Ohtani threw 565 total innings in Japan, Yamamoto has thrown almost double that. Yamamoto as I said, is probably the most successful NPB starting pitcher of the modern era. Best Japanese pitcher ever is debatable, Yutaka Enatsu (who tried out for the Brewers at the very end of his career) is probably up there though.
Hopefully you’re right but there’s Ben some recent rumblings that he prefers to be on the West Coast. Of course, money talks but you never know what his priorities are
Quote:
I was referring to Ohtani the pitcher, only. Know nothing of Senga. Tanaka was very good, true.
Was looking for comparison to Ohtani the pitcher and how Yamamoto compares. Ohtani would be excellent if only either a pitcher or a hitter.
But I get the idea everyone feels this guy(even if slightly built) is going to very successful.
Apples to oranges. Ohtani threw 565 total innings in Japan, Yamamoto has thrown almost double that. Yamamoto as I said, is probably the most successful NPB starting pitcher of the modern era. Best Japanese pitcher ever is debatable, Yutaka Enatsu (who tried out for the Brewers at the very end of his career) is probably up there though.
Thanks Dan. And comp to Cone is helpful and would be pretty nice.
Appreciate it.
Loved his stuff back when he was a youngster with the Mets from 87 to 92. Much more preferrable than the Lincecum comp.
Lee is very good. Kim exceeding expectations with SD certainly didn't hurt Kim's wallet and obviously a Korean star in NY has value as well.
Quote:
...that would make people happy. Not much power, high contact and walk rates, lefty hitter, solid glove in CF.
Lee is very good. Kim exceeding expectations with SD certainly didn't hurt Kim's wallet and obviously a Korean star in NY has value as well.
didn't hurt *Lee's wallet
and Joel Wolfe ;)
He’s popular but, not Ohtani popular. The problem with some Japanese starting pitchers have acclimating to MLB is that, the ball is smaller in Japan and, they pitch every 6 days. My worry about this guy is he’s short and may not have the stamina to pitch every 5 days.
Quote:
Think the Mets are gonna need to offer more years and money to YY if he has a preference for the Yanks. Hopefully, Senga can help to recruit him from the Mets' perspective.
and Joel Wolfe ;)
Exactly! Hopefully he can make Cashman eat his words!
It appears that he has a long standing friendship with Yamamotto.
He’s (Senga) also made it clear as far back as August that he’s willing to help the Mets make the pitch to lure Yamamoto to Queens.
“I have known him since he was 20 years old,” Senga said to the New York Post through an interpreter. “He’s been at the top level since he was very young, and I know he has a ton of talent. He is an amazing player.”
Link - ( New Window )
The Braves and Phillies are a solid tier above them from a roster standpoint.
It's almost at the point they should trade Alonso. I know fans have warped visions of what they'd get back, but I don't see a long-term contract as smart for him for many reasons and if contending this year is a long shot then if his value is higher now than the deadline a trade makes sense.
Or....do they empty the farm and try and lure some SP in a trade?
Or...Is it Montgomery and some lesser options to flesh out the rotation?
Or do they get patient and put the best team on the field they can while still building up a core of young talent to strike when the time is right?
A lot rides on this one player (who may or may not pan out).
The Braves and Phillies are a solid tier above them from a roster standpoint.
It's almost at the point they should trade Alonso. I know fans have warped visions of what they'd get back, but I don't see a long-term contract as smart for him for many reasons and if contending this year is a long shot then if his value is higher now than the deadline a trade makes sense.
Or....do they empty the farm and try and lure some SP in a trade?
Or...Is it Montgomery and some lesser options to flesh out the rotation?
Or do they get patient and put the best team on the field they can while still building up a core of young talent to strike when the time is right?
A lot rides on this one player (who may or may not pan out).
If I’m the Mets I’m signing Montgomery regardless, because they need multiple arms. Without Yamamoto I’m not sure where they are getting the frontline starter they need unless it’s in a trade.
True, the Yankees are in a much different spot than the Mets related to Yamamoto.
they have Cole, an ace, and then some under performing pitchers who can be fixed ideally for them like Rodon so they're really just filling in on the rotation without Yamamoto.
Yamamoto obviously helps the Yankees (if he's the goods) but he's not as critical to them as he is to the Mets.
IMO.
The Braves and Phillies are a solid tier above them from a roster standpoint.
It's almost at the point they should trade Alonso. I know fans have warped visions of what they'd get back, but I don't see a long-term contract as smart for him for many reasons and if contending this year is a long shot then if his value is higher now than the deadline a trade makes sense.
Or....do they empty the farm and try and lure some SP in a trade?
Or...Is it Montgomery and some lesser options to flesh out the rotation?
Or do they get patient and put the best team on the field they can while still building up a core of young talent to strike when the time is right?
A lot rides on this one player (who may or may not pan out).
i think Soto is the more pivotal guy than yamamoto.
if they miss on yamamoto, then just hit the next guy down, which is probably montgomery. if they get montgomery, imanaga, lugo or some combo like that i think they are ok.
if they don't trade for soto then i think burnes enters the equation since they will probably just sign one of the OF/DH types.
soto is the key for me though. 25 years old and puts the middle of met lineup on the level of philly/atlanta. gives them a lot more flexibility to play hardball with alonso and be willing to let him walk next year. he's an mvp candidate they can build the next decade around bridging the lindor/alonso/nimmo/senga/diaz group with the talent currently on the farm.
The Mets (and Yankees) can win without adding Soto IMO.
The Mets can't win without adding starting pitching and bullpen help and while it doesn't have to be Yamamoto he's probably the best one they can add without costing prospects and/or draft compensation.
The Mets (and Yankees) can win without adding Soto IMO.
The Mets can't win without adding starting pitching and bullpen help and while it doesn't have to be Yamamoto he's probably the best one they can add without costing prospects and/or draft compensation.
the penalties are overrated, if you think a SP is that key take the $3-4m prospect cost penalty and sign Snell. Maybe he's not as good as last year but he has won 2 CY now so on a 4-6 year deal it's pretty like he contends for 1 if not 2 over the deal.
the mets are 100% desperate for pitching, but signing quality depth through the 6+ open slots on the full staff is just as important if not more important than any single SP (imo).
adding an every day core piece on a literal HOF trajectory at age 25 is once or twice in a decade opportunity. anyone other than jett williams is on the table for me.
that's fair i was going off memory of where most projections were (which was pre-Nola), point was that over the rest of his prime which this next deal will cover it's probably a good chance he contends for another CY at some point.
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while awesome, will cost a ton, and I read it's unlikely he signs an extension (will test free agency) and doesn't help the rotation or the bullpen which to me are bigger priorities.
The Mets (and Yankees) can win without adding Soto IMO.
The Mets can't win without adding starting pitching and bullpen help and while it doesn't have to be Yamamoto he's probably the best one they can add without costing prospects and/or draft compensation.
the penalties are overrated, if you think a SP is that key take the $3-4m prospect cost penalty and sign Snell. Maybe he's not as good as last year but he has won 2 CY now so on a 4-6 year deal it's pretty like he contends for 1 if not 2 over the deal.
the mets are 100% desperate for pitching, but signing quality depth through the 6+ open slots on the full staff is just as important if not more important than any single SP (imo).
adding an every day core piece on a literal HOF trajectory at age 25 is once or twice in a decade opportunity. anyone other than jett williams is on the table for me.
What penalties? Luxury tax? I wasn't even mentioning that. Or if you mean signing someone who was offered a QO, still wasn't my main point - only that Yamamoto is a no-brainer player the Mets should make a priority and if they miss out I would re-think the whole off-season/short-term and long-term plan.
The Mets have one legit starting pitcher on the team right now in Senga. Their #2 starter today is Quintana who was pretty good when he pitched, but he's 35. I've been there done that with relying on old starting pitchers.
The Mets need 3 legitimate starting pitchers. If they miss on Yamamoto I don't see them competing with the Braves and Phillies in 2024 with or without Soto - there are just not enough pitchers available without significant prospect costs in trades. because of that, I'd adjust my approach.
If they miss on Yamamoto, my preference with Soto is let someone up pony up the prospect haul and bank on Boras being legit about testing free agency and getting him then.
If they get Yamamoto, I'd say go all in on Soto now, and push for an extension (unlikely but try) and still add Montgomery or others and some bullpen help.
Then the gap is closer or closed with the Braves and Phillies.
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
Hearing that the Atlanta Braves are showing strong interest in the starting pitching market. 2 pitchers I would keep an eye on:
Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez.
my point was if you think a top of the rotation pitcher is the biggest critical factor for mets right now, which im not necessarily arguing yes/no, Snell just won his 2nd CY and the penalty is pretty light.
It's possible 1 player could decide to sign elsewhere even you offer the most money but if they offer the most money to both Yamamoto and Snell odds are they will get at least 1 of them.
my point was if you think a top of the rotation pitcher is the biggest critical factor for mets right now, which im not necessarily arguing yes/no, Snell just won his 2nd CY and the penalty is pretty light.
It's possible 1 player could decide to sign elsewhere even you offer the most money but if they offer the most money to both Yamamoto and Snell odds are they will get at least 1 of them.
To boil down my point, unless and until the Mets add two legit starting pitchers (probably 3) (Yamamoto, Snell, Mongtomery, etc.) I cannot support pursuing Soto - especially without a guarantee he re-signs.
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worth of prospects ($1m IFA, 2nd and 5th best draft picks, which will likely slot in around $2.5m).
my point was if you think a top of the rotation pitcher is the biggest critical factor for mets right now, which im not necessarily arguing yes/no, Snell just won his 2nd CY and the penalty is pretty light.
It's possible 1 player could decide to sign elsewhere even you offer the most money but if they offer the most money to both Yamamoto and Snell odds are they will get at least 1 of them.
To boil down my point, unless and until the Mets add two legit starting pitchers (probably 3) (Yamamoto, Snell, Mongtomery, etc.) I cannot support pursuing Soto - especially without a guarantee he re-signs.
This happens to be such a quality year for SP I think I’d be pretty fine with almost any 3 of the top 10 or so as long as 1 of them is top 5. Obviously I’d hope that’s Yamamoto but if it’s snell or Montgomery plus 2 other quality sp (lugo, flaherty, imanaga, giolito etc) I think that’s very workable if you build a strong enough bp.
I think it’s a lot tougher to accurately rank sp outcomes than the odds are that Soto will be one of the most valuable every day players for the next 10 years. If u had to pick any 1 player over that time period it may be Soto.
How does that help?
How does that help?
As a boras client we can be fairly confident all u need to do is pay him the most, which is true of 90%+ of non Boras clients too.
This happens to be such a quality year for SP I think I’d be pretty fine with almost any 3 of the top 10 or so as long as 1 of them is top 5. Obviously I’d hope that’s Yamamoto but if it’s snell or Montgomery plus 2 other quality sp (lugo, flaherty, imanaga, giolito etc) I think that’s very workable if you build a strong enough bp.
I think it’s a lot tougher to accurately rank sp outcomes than the odds are that Soto will be one of the most valuable every day players for the next 10 years. If u had to pick any 1 player over that time period it may be Soto.
Yamamoto or Mongomery -for sure. Snell is a no go. Cohen has had a policy of not signing players who have a QO attached. I’m sure it’s not written in stone, but I can’t see them diverging from it for Snell. He’s got durability & control issues.
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is you may not get Soto the next 10 years, you may get him the next one, and you have depleted your farm, and if you don't get the SPs and bullpen help you need you're the 2024 version of the 2023 Padres
How does that help?
As a boras client we can be fairly confident all u need to do is pay him the most, which is true of 90%+ of non Boras clients too.
Which is why Soto is contingent for me on adding the SP's/bullpen help to become a contender, if they don't do that first, then wait until Soto is a FA and be the highest bidder and save the prospects.
It would be terrible to empty the farm for Soto, miss out on the SP's, and subsequently not contend and then the Mets could have just signed Soto as a FA.
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In comment 16298450 pjcas18 said:
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is you may not get Soto the next 10 years, you may get him the next one, and you have depleted your farm, and if you don't get the SPs and bullpen help you need you're the 2024 version of the 2023 Padres
How does that help?
As a boras client we can be fairly confident all u need to do is pay him the most, which is true of 90%+ of non Boras clients too.
Which is why Soto is contingent for me on adding the SP's/bullpen help to become a contender, if they don't do that first, then wait until Soto is a FA and be the highest bidder and save the prospects.
It would be terrible to empty the farm for Soto, miss out on the SP's, and subsequently not contend and then the Mets could have just signed Soto as a FA.
As a rental empty the farm is unlikely. It will be more than Lindor cost but shouldn’t be that much more.
Nobody last off-season, nobody in 2021
Nobody last off-season, nobody in 2021
depending on who you believe they tried to get Realmuto and they also went for Bauer. i think all of those were pre-eppler who seemed to last year specifically plan to maximize QO returns (bassitt, jdg).
whether or not stearns goes there is on the list of things that will remain to be seen but in milwaukee im pretty sure lorenzo cain was a QO free agent and obviously his biggest move was yelich ahead of his age 26 season (and there are a lot of similarities there with soto).
whether or not they need to sign a QO fa this year very much depends on how big of a difference they see between snell and the others without QO. having the hardware he has doesnt mean he's necessarily head and shoulders better than anyone else going forward, it's a pretty strong track record though so if we accept that nobody knows the future with any certainty he's clearly got a chance to end up the most productive SP from this year's FA if his next 5 years are like the prior 5.