I thought Schoen provided some clues regarding the position going forward.
First, Daniel Jones will be on the roster next year. This should be a surprise to no one considering his contract and cap charge next year ($47M). There is no way to move off Jones and I'd assume there is no trade market. So, Jones takes up a spot in the QB room.
This is where I thought his comments were telling:
-Schoen said there are multiple avenues to address the position which include free agency and trade.
-He brought up the bust rate for top 10 QB's drafted while specifically citing the 2018 draft.
-He admitted that they will need to address QB which again isn't a surprise, but it shows just how bare the Giants are at this position.
-He talked about dealing with the NY market. I know some will disagree with me, but I think this does matter. Hurts is an example of a QB who provides no distractions.
A lot depends where NYG picks, for the sake of discussion let's give them two more wins. They squeak out a win somewhere and beat a resting Eagles team to get to 6-11. This probably puts them in the 5-10 range in the draft.
Would Schoen trade their 24 first, 24 second, 25 first, 25 third and Jalin Hyatt to move to the first pick in the draft? I doubt it. Given the roster holes and the financial commitment to Jones in 2024, I don't see it.
I think it's much more likely to trade into the back of the first and draft a QB. Maybe they sit tight and Daniels is there or maybe they can do a modest trade up in the first to secure one of the top tier QB's, but I don't see a situation where they mortgage a ton of draft picks and a young player like Carolina did.
I could see Schoen getting creative though. This would be trading a mid round pick for someone like Justin Fields or someone else out there that is young and still cost effective. One of Daboll's strengths is developing QB's, so maybe a guy like Fields does better under Daboll.
With Jones assured a roster spot, it makes it tricky though. Do you commit to bring back DeVito knowing he wouldn't last on the practice squad? Do you carry three QB's on game day?
I'd bet whoever is brought in (draft or trade) will have a strong chance to be the starting QB next year. I wonder if they feel the need to bring in two QB's or bring back DeVito and keep developing him.
I can't believe this nightmare is still going on. I will admit I've been dead wrong about how long Jones would be here. Never thought it would get this far. Shame on me for that.
I can't believe this nightmare is still going on. I will admit I've been dead wrong about how long Jones would be here. Never thought it would get this far. Shame on me for that.
how does citing jones league best int% (again your article's 2nd most important qb stat) criticizing conditions around him? or 7th best EPA/db?
almost every fresh non-quote post you make is a dodge of a specific question about an inconvenient fact, and in this case i only used stats you yourself sourced into the conversation as important.
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In comment 16307390 Eric on Li said:
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In comment 16307348 Go Terps said:
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In comment 16307132 bw in dc said:
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ANY/A because ANY/A incorporates TD passes, INTs, and sacks.
Credit should be given for scoring points and fault should be given for INTs.
On the other hand, sacks are very tough to assign fully on a QB for obvious reasons. And sometimes a sack is just as good as a punt.
ANY/A moves Jones up to 32 of 34 active players with 1500+ pass attempts. He jumps over Darnold. No way to shine it.
and what was jones any/a last year?
along with a league leading int% was it his career best despite a full room of waiver wire receivers making league minimum (and golladay)?
or do you plan to carry on ignoring the relevant context under this regime and the info even you yourself bring to the table that's favorable towards jones?
"Full room of waiver wire receivers" is a fun soundbite, but somehow the Giants had three WRs in the top 50 league-wide for separation last year. Those "waiver wire receivers" got open more than most other teams, so I'm not sure why they need to be denigrated just to prop up DJ.
Oh wait, strike that. I know exactly why they need to be denigrated - because any other attempt to prop up DJ starts to crater when you don't.
how many games did those 3 start in the first half of the year?
in fact my next post specifically asked whether or not the giants offense would have passed for more yards last year if hodgins/slayton/james had started from game 1 instead of the all the starts from david sills, kenny golladay, and marcus johnson - what do you think?
in week 8 ahead of their week 9 bye and isaiah hodgins week 10 debut in a meaningful role, marcus johnson led nyg receivers in snaps. "waiver wire receiver" is actually an upgrade for him over "currently out of the league receiver".
Wait a couple of years. Then that argument will also include having a "soon to be out of the league QB" throwing to them.
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Five years in and still the argument for Jones can only be based on criticizing the conditions around him.
I can't believe this nightmare is still going on. I will admit I've been dead wrong about how long Jones would be here. Never thought it would get this far. Shame on me for that.
how does citing jones league best int% (again your article's 2nd most important qb stat) criticizing conditions around him? or 7th best EPA/db?
You did cite those, and then you reached down into the well of excuses.
There is no proof, statistical or otherwise, that Jones is a good quarterback. The Giants paid him - in a normal universe the burden of proof would be on him to show that he is worth the cost. But in this world of crazy pills we cherry pick and make excuses to justify paying this player on spec.
The 2022 Giants went 9-7-1 and had their season ended in embarrassing fashion by a division rival. There is no trophy for that, and for the real teams in this league that would constitute a disappointing season.
This is all so fucking sad.
I can't believe this nightmare is still going on. I will admit I've been dead wrong about how long Jones would be here. Never thought it would get this far. Shame on me for that.
I can't figure it out, either. It's the most bizarre situation I have ever seen in my time here at BBI.
I don't who is dumber at this point: Me for not seeing what others apparently see in Jones? Schoen for re-signing Jones? Or the DJFC?
I'll keep repeating what others have wisely pointed out - if Jones was on another team and available in free agency, this board would be near unanimous in having zero interest in signing him.
While I'm not a Barkley guy in the sense of wanting to pay him big dollars, he has been infinitely more productive at his position than Jones. So, I can see why posters would push to keep him. At least defenses fear him.
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In comment 16307469 Go Terps said:
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Five years in and still the argument for Jones can only be based on criticizing the conditions around him.
I can't believe this nightmare is still going on. I will admit I've been dead wrong about how long Jones would be here. Never thought it would get this far. Shame on me for that.
how does citing jones league best int% (again your article's 2nd most important qb stat) criticizing conditions around him? or 7th best EPA/db?
You did cite those, and then you reached down into the well of excuses.
There is no proof, statistical or otherwise, that Jones is a good quarterback. The Giants paid him - in a normal universe the burden of proof would be on him to show that he is worth the cost. But in this world of crazy pills we cherry pick and make excuses to justify paying this player on spec.
The 2022 Giants went 9-7-1 and had their season ended in embarrassing fashion by a division rival. There is no trophy for that, and for the real teams in this league that would constitute a disappointing season.
This is all so fucking sad.
another dodge but at least you included and acknowledged the ignored questions in your reply, progress!
a little gaslighting in the bold since the reply you quoted literally cites 2 stats you yourself sourced as important but hey progress is still progress. wont let perfect be the enemy of good.
I'll keep repeating what others have wisely pointed out - if Jones was on another team and available in free agency, this board would be near unanimous in having zero interest in signing him.
If Jones was the starting QB for the Atlanta Falcons or Tennessee Titans or a half dozen other fairly nondescript NFL franchises, how long would it take his biggest supporters here to even remember his name if they were asked?
No time machines. No crystal balls. Jones had a bad year the Giants didn't see coming, not to this degree. That doesn't mean the staff is incompetent. Doesn't mean if Jones was playing slightly better right now and NYG saw a QB in April they don't take him then either. DJ could be OK this season and NYG could still be taking a QB in April. Teams do this. KC did it. This same franchise did it in 04!
Not everything has to be so black and white.
Breathe of fresh air, thank you DJM(I was going to jump down your throat for the Murray trade proposal ;))!
Not sure how some of the takes on BBI come to fruition. I like both Schoen AND Daboll. Have they both made mistakes yes. How was our team so utterly unprepared for the 1st game of the season? Thats on Daboll. The fact that he has kept them together and able to roll out a couple of W's and have the team play within themselves I think is a good sign. People jump all over the DJ contract, but thats what a middle of the road QB is worth today, especially one that just won the franchises first playoff game and first winning season in too many years. I don't think Daboll or Schoen are tied to Jones and will gladly dump him in 2025, while they draft a QB in the next two years. If Daboll can get Tommy Cutlets to develop into a decent back up QB in 5 or 6 games I trust him with a lower 1st or even 2nd round QB. Not to make him the next Mahomes or even Eli, but to a QB that can lead you to the playoffs and win a SB with a decent supporting cast.
Let's put it this way, was any division rival upset when the Giants signed Jones back in March? Was there any, "damn, I was really hoping he'd be out of the division and go to Carolina!" Of course not. The rest of the division celebrated.
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Five years in and still the argument for Jones can only be based on criticizing the conditions around him.
I can't believe this nightmare is still going on. I will admit I've been dead wrong about how long Jones would be here. Never thought it would get this far. Shame on me for that.
I can't figure it out, either. It's the most bizarre situation I have ever seen in my time here at BBI.
I don't who is dumber at this point: Me for not seeing what others apparently see in Jones? Schoen for re-signing Jones? Or the DJFC?
I'll keep repeating what others have wisely pointed out - if Jones was on another team and available in free agency, this board would be near unanimous in having zero interest in signing him.
While I'm not a Barkley guy in the sense of wanting to pay him big dollars, he has been infinitely more productive at his position than Jones. So, I can see why posters would push to keep him. At least defenses fear him.
this may come off like a backhanded compliment but it sincerely isnt, after years of these same cyclical discussions i think you are perhaps the most open-minded of those i've been on the other side of so im going to clarify something i think your post misunderstands - there is no amazon prime delivery on the next patrick mahomes or joe burrow.
there is only 1 question re: jones that has mattered to the new regime - was he the best option of the alterantives available?
in 2022 when they came in:
watson and wilson cost a ton and they have arguably been bigger laughing stocks (though russ has been a lot better than people credit this year).
trubisky and tyrod weren't doing better than jones did last year.
willis and ridder and pickett and corral and the rest of that historically poor '22 class wouldn't have been better.
last offseason they were far out of reach from young/stroud and they clearly decided they liked jones a good deal. they paid him more than carr and the other options available to them in FA, and imo that was justifiable even though i would consider what they gave him an aggressive contract. extending barkley and tagging jones was a much safer path im sure they wish they now wish they took.
as ive said numerous times, this year i think is the first time there are enough viable options that id be surprised if they dont take one. it is a good qb draft and they have the ammo necessary. 5 years of control is 2 extra years of control beyond jones contract even if he played it to term, plus tag years beyond that. it is good business to invest if there's a 1st rd qb they like.
but eating an extra $22m of dead money as terps suggests (69m total dead money in 1 year) is the opposite of good business even if it wasnt also highly unlikely because of the injury. next year like 2022 will be another prove it year and i expect them to give themselves a much better alternative option he'll need to beat out.
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21st in the NFL. League average was 5.9.
interesting, so in his age 25 first year with the new regime:
the league leader at protecting the football (your 2nd most important qb stat int%, a stat he had improved in every year of his career until this one).
the 5th best rushing qb.
tied for 2nd with tom brady and justin herbert in game winning drives with 5.
played his best game in a road playoff win (the teams first in over a decade).
and in what you seem to think was his achilles heel worst stat, adjusted passing yards per attempt, he was so bad he was almost exactly league average despite being in an offense severely deficient in receiving weapons.
last year there were 22 receivers who had 1k+ yards and 38 who had 800+. if the nyg had one of them do you think they would have passed for more yards per attempt than they did? or if they'd just started the year with slayton/james/hodgins getting all the reps instead of a bunch of guys currently out of the league?
or was jones somehow supposed to be able to pass for more yardage per attempt than he did throwing to golladay, marcus johnson, and david sills?
Jones has had remarkably consistent passing production excluding his rookie year. A little less than a touchdown a game, about 200 yards passing. I don't think the receivers would have changed it. Passing touchdowns are super correlated with points scored, which is highly correlated with wins. If you asked me what single statistic I want my team to be best ate it would be passing touchdowns.
I think the later season numbers were more attributable to Daboll capitalizing on poor pass defenses more than the weapons. Because we had the best weapons this year and he was awful.
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In comment 16307391 Go Terps said:
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21st in the NFL. League average was 5.9.
interesting, so in his age 25 first year with the new regime:
the league leader at protecting the football (your 2nd most important qb stat int%, a stat he had improved in every year of his career until this one).
the 5th best rushing qb.
tied for 2nd with tom brady and justin herbert in game winning drives with 5.
played his best game in a road playoff win (the teams first in over a decade).
and in what you seem to think was his achilles heel worst stat, adjusted passing yards per attempt, he was so bad he was almost exactly league average despite being in an offense severely deficient in receiving weapons.
last year there were 22 receivers who had 1k+ yards and 38 who had 800+. if the nyg had one of them do you think they would have passed for more yards per attempt than they did? or if they'd just started the year with slayton/james/hodgins getting all the reps instead of a bunch of guys currently out of the league?
or was jones somehow supposed to be able to pass for more yardage per attempt than he did throwing to golladay, marcus johnson, and david sills?
Jones has had remarkably consistent passing production excluding his rookie year. A little less than a touchdown a game, about 200 yards passing. I don't think the receivers would have changed it. Passing touchdowns are super correlated with points scored, which is highly correlated with wins. If you asked me what single statistic I want my team to be best ate it would be passing touchdowns.
I think the later season numbers were more attributable to Daboll capitalizing on poor pass defenses more than the weapons. Because we had the best weapons this year and he was awful.
read my last post to bw, and specifically in the context of his performance and the decisions made by this regime. i dont know how rationalizing good stats last year bc of bad defenses is any different than rationalizing bad stats this because of good defenses (and an undeniably terrible OL against those defenses) - and that is a chicken or egg game that gets nobody nowhere. last year he led drives to beat baltimore before lamar got hurt, gb neutral site, jax on road, min on road/playoffs, and those teams either made the playoffs or had winning records when they played them.
this year has been a disaster but people are going overboard in throwing out last year bc of 4 losses where the whole team was noncompetitive in all 3 phases (dal, sf, sea, mia).
He will have a handful of great games a year, but is mostly a mediocre passer.
He will have a handful of great games a year, but is mostly a mediocre passer.
Bad passer. When Jones has to read the field and go vertical against good defenses, he's bad. His only redeeming quality is running.
He will have a handful of great games a year, but is mostly a mediocre passer.
you aren't asking the question from the perspective of the way qb decisions get made (the thread has morphed into the same circular debate jones discussions always become but it started from comments schoen made w/r/t jones and the future).
like i said to bw there is only 1 question that matters/ed - what is the best option of the options available?
in 2022 there werent many good options and even though they didnt like him enough to pick up the 5yo, he turned out to be probably the best of the options available.
in 2023 they clearly felt won over to the extent that they paid him expecting him to be not just be the best option for 2023 but also 2024 based on the deal structure. they guaranteed him 40m+ they didnt have to.
2023 has been bad enough i expect they are going to hedge that decision heading into 2024 with a 1st round draft pick. but nowhere in this decision chain is a way to just overnight an upgrade at QB who will pass for more touchdowns. it's the hardest position to find with the highest bust rate, which is why schoen is in the present day doing post-mortem on the 2018 QB class. and it's also why frank reich is unemployed just 6 months after taking the consensus #1oa QB. once every decade there's an andrew luck or peyton manning but other than that:
not really an option when the costs are the costs and coaches are coaching to not get fired. it's a lot easier to tell someone to punt when it's their job on the line not yours.
The Giants clearly had a view that 2022 Jones was sort of a floor and that there was serious development coming. They were wrong. That contract was awful the day it was signed and I thought it was asinine. I think every franchise (outside of maybe Denver and Cleveland) is 2-3 years from competing, and if you aren't a contender, you should limit big dollar investment over that time horizon.
My hope is the Giants realize that it was an error and don't excuse it, but Schoen's comments about the injuries and tough schedule make me concerned the hard analytical work isn't being done.
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If there are only bad options then surely it would be inadvisable to commit heavily to one of the bad options.
not really an option when the costs are the costs and coaches are coaching to not get fired. it's a lot easier to tell someone to punt when it's their job on the line not yours.
But paying Jones only damaged their job security.
The Giants clearly had a view that 2022 Jones was sort of a floor and that there was serious development coming. They were wrong. That contract was awful the day it was signed and I thought it was asinine. I think every franchise (outside of maybe Denver and Cleveland) is 2-3 years from competing, and if you aren't a contender, you should limit big dollar investment over that time horizon.
My hope is the Giants realize that it was an error and don't excuse it, but Schoen's comments about the injuries and tough schedule make me concerned the hard analytical work isn't being done.
he is researching QB success rates in prior drafts - and specifically the last draft he and his head coach chose the right guy - that is the right analytical work to be doing.
a lot of the same knockers of jones will be first in line to knock picking a bo nix or jj mccarthy (some already are in other threads) but that is the decision they are already prepping for because that's the decision that may end up defining their run here more than jones. i think when push comes to shove they will put chips in on a first round qb this year.
I absolutely will not trash them if they miss on the QB--I think drafting first round QBs is significantly more luck driven than any of us like to admit. I never shit on Gettleman (who I thought was completely incompetent) for drafting Jones. My issue will be is if they give whoever they draft an undeserved third or fourth year. Or wrongly project future growth (as they did with Jones).
It's what, a 50-50 proposition a top ten draft QB is good? And that might be overstating it. I think we have the right coach to help develop a young QB. But so did San Francisco and Lance was a bust.
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In comment 16307753 Go Terps said:
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If there are only bad options then surely it would be inadvisable to commit heavily to one of the bad options.
not really an option when the costs are the costs and coaches are coaching to not get fired. it's a lot easier to tell someone to punt when it's their job on the line not yours.
But paying Jones only damaged their job security.
did it? if they dumped jones and regressed to the same extent they did this year with whoever they replaced him with, then who would be first lightning rod catching the blame instead of him?
the only thing that helps their job security is steps forward at the position.
I absolutely will not trash them if they miss on the QB--I think drafting first round QBs is significantly more luck driven than any of us like to admit. I never shit on Gettleman (who I thought was completely incompetent) for drafting Jones. My issue will be is if they give whoever they draft an undeserved third or fourth year. Or wrongly project future growth (as they did with Jones).
It's what, a 50-50 proposition a top ten draft QB is good? And that might be overstating it. I think we have the right coach to help develop a young QB. But so did San Francisco and Lance was a bust.
it is way below 50-50. probably more like 1 in 4 or 5 first round. each draft has roughly 10-12 total QBs drafted and not every draft has 1 very good starter come out of it. some have 2 but i think the average would be around 1 per year with an average of 3 or so selected in the first round. good qb drafts as 2024 may be go over, average ones like 2023 may have been hit about that, bad qb drafts like 2022 go under.
also i dont think they are doing simple analysis like who did what from 2018. id imagine (or at least hope) they are scouring their own internal assessments of each of those qbs, seeing what they got right about each of those guys and what they got wrong, and what they feel they got most right about allen in their projection from what he was in college to what they helped develop him into. i assume that type of analysis is done almost every draft at every position, but at the QB gets heightened attention when you are in the market. i dont think andry reid is going to be doing as much of that this year.
Even Mr. Franchise Tag can't get around to saying that was a better option since he didn't support it.
My guess is the internal analysis is much worse than we would like to think (I'd point to Gettleman sounding like a complete buffoon most of the time). And with time so scarce, that sort of self-scouting probably takes a back seat to more pressing business.
Different position, but a guy like Evan Neal (I still have hope in him, but let's assume he's a bust for a moment). Was the scouting wrong? Doesn't seem likely. Was it coaching? Maybe, seems possible. Or was it just an unlucky result with a good process?
QB-focused, could Darnold have succeeded in Buffalo? Would Allen suck with the Jets or Giants? No one really 'knows' the answers to these, but I'd be curious on their professional opinions. Sometimes just looking at the after the fact results is insufficient.
Even Mr. Franchise Tag can't get around to saying that was a better option since he didn't support it.
Rattling off new handle ideas comes really naturally to you.
Not sure what threads you were reading last offseason under whichever previous handle but i was here under this handle the day the details were announced saying the extension was more aggressive than i expected. christian referenced that in this thread because he was the one i was mostly arguing that case with.
Like sands through the hourglass.
My guess is the internal analysis is much worse than we would like to think (I'd point to Gettleman sounding like a complete buffoon most of the time). And with time so scarce, that sort of self-scouting probably takes a back seat to more pressing business.
Different position, but a guy like Evan Neal (I still have hope in him, but let's assume he's a bust for a moment). Was the scouting wrong? Doesn't seem likely. Was it coaching? Maybe, seems possible. Or was it just an unlucky result with a good process?
QB-focused, could Darnold have succeeded in Buffalo? Would Allen suck with the Jets or Giants? No one really 'knows' the answers to these, but I'd be curious on their professional opinions. Sometimes just looking at the after the fact results is insufficient.
Re neal, schoen just said he went back to look at the college tape and "he's a good player", so i do think there's a not so subtle hint that bobby johnson probably under a microscope and in a different org next year.
NFL teams are big business, Sy recently said he just went back to look at Neal at bama too, and NFL teams employ probably somewhere in the ballpark of 200 Sys who have 100000x more access to data and non-public information. So id imagine the amount of work they are putting in behind the scenes is beyond whatever we think it is even in the worst organizations.
these guys all know how precarious their job security is so i think they are all doing everything they can to get things right because getting things right is what makes them money and keeps them from becoming punchlines who get fired and embarrass their kids as they move from school to school in new cities. and even with what are essentially r&d budgets in the 10s-100's of millions, they all get more wrong than right.
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I am actually intensely curious on the internal analysis done by teams. The closest detail I can recall was the Next Man Up book on the Ravens, which came out almost 20 years ago now.
My guess is the internal analysis is much worse than we would like to think (I'd point to Gettleman sounding like a complete buffoon most of the time). And with time so scarce, that sort of self-scouting probably takes a back seat to more pressing business.
Different position, but a guy like Evan Neal (I still have hope in him, but let's assume he's a bust for a moment). Was the scouting wrong? Doesn't seem likely. Was it coaching? Maybe, seems possible. Or was it just an unlucky result with a good process?
QB-focused, could Darnold have succeeded in Buffalo? Would Allen suck with the Jets or Giants? No one really 'knows' the answers to these, but I'd be curious on their professional opinions. Sometimes just looking at the after the fact results is insufficient.
Re neal, schoen just said he went back to look at the college tape and "he's a good player", so i do think there's a not so subtle hint that bobby johnson probably under a microscope and in a different org next year.
NFL teams are big business, Sy recently said he just went back to look at Neal at bama too, and NFL teams employ probably somewhere in the ballpark of 200 Sys who have 100000x more access to data and non-public information. So id imagine the amount of work they are putting in behind the scenes is beyond whatever we think it is even in the worst organizations.
these guys all know how precarious their job security is so i think they are all doing everything they can to get things right because getting things right is what makes them money and keeps them from becoming punchlines who get fired and embarrass their kids as they move from school to school in new cities. and even with what are essentially r&d budgets in the 10s-100's of millions, they all get more wrong than right.
This is what I think about whenever someone comes out with the common "the draft is a crapshoot" line.
It's almost always coming from a fan, and it's shorthand for "I don't know what goes on in the evaluation process, so it might as well be random nonsense".
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I am actually intensely curious on the internal analysis done by teams. The closest detail I can recall was the Next Man Up book on the Ravens, which came out almost 20 years ago now.
My guess is the internal analysis is much worse than we would like to think (I'd point to Gettleman sounding like a complete buffoon most of the time). And with time so scarce, that sort of self-scouting probably takes a back seat to more pressing business.
Different position, but a guy like Evan Neal (I still have hope in him, but let's assume he's a bust for a moment). Was the scouting wrong? Doesn't seem likely. Was it coaching? Maybe, seems possible. Or was it just an unlucky result with a good process?
QB-focused, could Darnold have succeeded in Buffalo? Would Allen suck with the Jets or Giants? No one really 'knows' the answers to these, but I'd be curious on their professional opinions. Sometimes just looking at the after the fact results is insufficient.
Re neal, schoen just said he went back to look at the college tape and "he's a good player", so i do think there's a not so subtle hint that bobby johnson probably under a microscope and in a different org next year.
NFL teams are big business, Sy recently said he just went back to look at Neal at bama too, and NFL teams employ probably somewhere in the ballpark of 200 Sys who have 100000x more access to data and non-public information. So id imagine the amount of work they are putting in behind the scenes is beyond whatever we think it is even in the worst organizations.
these guys all know how precarious their job security is so i think they are all doing everything they can to get things right because getting things right is what makes them money and keeps them from becoming punchlines who get fired and embarrass their kids as they move from school to school in new cities. and even with what are essentially r&d budgets in the 10s-100's of millions, they all get more wrong than right.
I'm sure they all work very hard, but I don't know how good they all are, lol. This is a bit simplistic, but you see so many stupid decisions from head coaches every week. I don't think a lot of these guys are very intelligent, frankly. I remember Shurmur, for example, was asked to explain why he went for 2 points and he couldn't articulate the reasoning well--merely pointing to the analytics rather than understanding the logic.
I think Belichick had a huge advantage with Ernie Adams and advanced data. Now teams caught up and the value of that advantage declined. Belichick is a bit of an asshole, but I've never really heard him say something stupid. I've heard Shurmur, DG, and many others say stupid shit. I think it was Fassel who said they are all glorified PE teachers.
Like sands through the hourglass.
Like sand in the sahara an unlimited supply of bs.
below is the thread when the signing broke and tell me where i said any of that. pretty sure this was my first post reacting to the deal, other than trading for waller instead of hopkins, which as it turns out would have been a cheaper and better route, i think it holds up pretty good.
Eric on Li : mute : 3/7/2023 5:34 pm : link
but on the positive side something like a hopkins trade becomes a lot more realistic.
i have a feeling when we see more details the biggest story of this contract will be that schoen and daboll didnt give themselves near the emergency chute i would have expected. a lot is still unknown obviously but i think this contract is starting to shape up as a big endorsement of jones as their qb.
DANIEL JONES: 4-year deal worth $160M, sources say - ( New Window )
But that's not my issue. My issue is Jones the player; and those who truly think it is worth it to give Jones yet another audition in 2024. And that they saw enough in 2022, and maybe further back, to convince them that there is even more upside here.
And that continues to blow my mind because I can't bend my imagination far enough to get there. We all look at this through our own prisms, and all I see with Jones is a skill set fairly easy to replace.
But that's not my issue. My issue is Jones the player; and those who truly think it is worth it to give Jones yet another audition in 2024. And that they saw enough in 2022, and maybe further back, to convince them that there is even more upside here.
And that continues to blow my mind because I can't bend my imagination far enough to get there. We all look at this through our own prisms, and all I see with Jones is a skill set fairly easy to replace.
The sad part is... if we could have signed Barkley I bet we FT Jones.
Eric on Li : 3/8/2023 7:09 pm : link
A+ for creativity, flexibility, no drama execution
solid B+/A for the deal itself
i think there was only a little bit of daylight for this contract to have been better but not been so overly favorable that it was worth signing over the tag. i think getting a 5th year would have been a positive, but id imagine the cost of getting was more expensive.
i think this is a really good deal for both sides, but perhaps a slightly better deal for jones than the nyg depending on the incentives because based on the PFT report im thinking the incentives are much more likely to pay out than the giants using the emergency chutes after year 2 or 3.
I'm sure they all work very hard, but I don't know how good they all are, lol. This is a bit simplistic, but you see so many stupid decisions from head coaches every week. I don't think a lot of these guys are very intelligent, frankly. I remember Shurmur, for example, was asked to explain why he went for 2 points and he couldn't articulate the reasoning well--merely pointing to the analytics rather than understanding the logic.
I think Belichick had a huge advantage with Ernie Adams and advanced data. Now teams caught up and the value of that advantage declined. Belichick is a bit of an asshole, but I've never really heard him say something stupid. I've heard Shurmur, DG, and many others say stupid shit. I think it was Fassel who said they are all glorified PE teachers.
so a few random thoughts:
1. think about how big the pool of hireable head coaches is (it's not big). it's gotten bigger with younger coaches getting more consideration and having success, but the universe is not very big. 32 teams = 64 O/D coordinators. usually have to be at that level to get a lead job, but not always. many of those 64 have already failed and at the moment of black monday 25-30% of those O/D coordinators were part of staffs that just got fired. maybe a few college coaches get consideration but it's hard to even find quality coaches in college at this point. take out the prior failures still employed, plus the recently unemployed, and you are probably around 10-20 candidates per year, which is i think the approximate number of guys who get interviews league wide (maybe a little higher than that get interviews but some are always considered long shots).
so to the point about "i dont know how good they all are" you are correct. there arent 100's of ivy leaguers who have put in the 10-20 years in those coaching ranks building up resumes to be equipped to get those jobs right now. i do think things are trending that way because thats the needed skillset now and more and more you hear about guys with those kinds of backgrounds as OCs. Mike McDaniels fits that.
2. i think the line between winning and losing has never been closer, the talent never flatter, and the number of true impact players never fewer. the new rules, new cba, evolution of college/hs/7on7s all part of it. cycles are all sped up and not to sound get off my lawn i dont think tom brady is wrong. too much changed too quickly and in some ways the nfl isn't recognizeable to even the coughlin era game (which is part of what ended him here so poorly, he was not an adapter the way pete carroll and andy reid were adapters).
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they got a player they wanted at a fair price with fair protections
Eric on Li : 3/8/2023 7:09 pm : link
A+ for creativity, flexibility, no drama execution
solid B+/A for the deal itself
i think there was only a little bit of daylight for this contract to have been better but not been so overly favorable that it was worth signing over the tag. i think getting a 5th year would have been a positive, but id imagine the cost of getting was more expensive.
i think this is a really good deal for both sides, but perhaps a slightly better deal for jones than the nyg depending on the incentives because based on the PFT report im thinking the incentives are much more likely to pay out than the giants using the emergency chutes after year 2 or 3.
serious question, do you know how to read? does the bold literally not say it was a better deal for jones than nyg?
i dont know why i spend time arguing with someone who has a multiple personality disorder, probably because it's so hard to keep up with your new handles on the BBI Mute list, but as a final goodbye (until the next handle) ill refer you back to my exchange with christian earlier in this very thread.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=640922&show_all=1#16306613
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I'm sure they all work very hard, but I don't know how good they all are, lol. This is a bit simplistic, but you see so many stupid decisions from head coaches every week. I don't think a lot of these guys are very intelligent, frankly. I remember Shurmur, for example, was asked to explain why he went for 2 points and he couldn't articulate the reasoning well--merely pointing to the analytics rather than understanding the logic.
I think Belichick had a huge advantage with Ernie Adams and advanced data. Now teams caught up and the value of that advantage declined. Belichick is a bit of an asshole, but I've never really heard him say something stupid. I've heard Shurmur, DG, and many others say stupid shit. I think it was Fassel who said they are all glorified PE teachers.
so a few random thoughts:
1. think about how big the pool of hireable head coaches is (it's not big). it's gotten bigger with younger coaches getting more consideration and having success, but the universe is not very big. 32 teams = 64 O/D coordinators. usually have to be at that level to get a lead job, but not always. many of those 64 have already failed and at the moment of black monday 25-30% of those O/D coordinators were part of staffs that just got fired. maybe a few college coaches get consideration but it's hard to even find quality coaches in college at this point. take out the prior failures still employed, plus the recently unemployed, and you are probably around 10-20 candidates per year, which is i think the approximate number of guys who get interviews league wide (maybe a little higher than that get interviews but some are always considered long shots).
so to the point about "i dont know how good they all are" you are correct. there arent 100's of ivy leaguers who have put in the 10-20 years in those coaching ranks building up resumes to be equipped to get those jobs right now. i do think things are trending that way because thats the needed skillset now and more and more you hear about guys with those kinds of backgrounds as OCs. Mike McDaniels fits that.
2. i think the line between winning and losing has never been closer, the talent never flatter, and the number of true impact players never fewer. the new rules, new cba, evolution of college/hs/7on7s all part of it. cycles are all sped up and not to sound get off my lawn i dont think tom brady is wrong. too much changed too quickly and in some ways the nfl isn't recognizeable to even the coughlin era game (which is part of what ended him here so poorly, he was not an adapter the way pete carroll and andy reid were adapters).
I agree with everything you wrote here. I'd add, I think scouting has gotten so difficult in part because the college and pro games are really different now. I'm not and have never been super into college football, but it's obvious the second I turn on any game. Analyzing linemen, for example, is so hard when colleges operate spread in offenses so frequently. Patrick Mahomes, literally the best QB in the game today, has talked about not knowing how to read defenses coming out of college. And I think it leads to some of the issues Brady talks about--I feel like the fundamentals (tackling, blocking) have deteriorated from the mid-2000s. Partially due to rule changes, partially due to the post-2011 CBA.
But that's not my issue. My issue is Jones the player; and those who truly think it is worth it to give Jones yet another audition in 2024. And that they saw enough in 2022, and maybe further back, to convince them that there is even more upside here.
And that continues to blow my mind because I can't bend my imagination far enough to get there. We all look at this through our own prisms, and all I see with Jones is a skill set fairly easy to replace.
on one hand you say that but on the other you dont like the idea of drafting nix - which is totally fair because i have my own reservations about him - but that's my point, i think there are unrealistic expectations about finding qbs in general. all of us as fans get wrapped in liking certain guys and not others.
i loved (and still very much like) bryce young because what he did against the SEC (especially UGA 3 or 4x in big games) had me more convinced than any recent qb he was ready for the NFL. his anticipation, ball distribution, escapability were all among what i think the most important traits are in the game today and he was battle tested. the nfl agreed as he was the consensus #1 player on all the lists ahead of more tools-rich players, he got drafted there, and now most fans make smurf jokes and frank reich is fired.
so all of that is to say my prism for qbs is that it's these guys jobs on the line and they know it better than us. it is their single biggest decision, they watch every ounce of tape, and they know 1 million times better than us which players are the right fits for their schemes. and they get significantly more wrong than right. it's easy to not like guys (theres a reason for the saying most popular player on every team is backup qb). fans can be much more casual about changing qbs because our jobs arent on the line.
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Quote:
they got a player they wanted at a fair price with fair protections
Eric on Li : 3/8/2023 7:09 pm : link
A+ for creativity, flexibility, no drama execution
solid B+/A for the deal itself
i think there was only a little bit of daylight for this contract to have been better but not been so overly favorable that it was worth signing over the tag. i think getting a 5th year would have been a positive, but id imagine the cost of getting was more expensive.
i think this is a really good deal for both sides, but perhaps a slightly better deal for jones than the nyg depending on the incentives because based on the PFT report im thinking the incentives are much more likely to pay out than the giants using the emergency chutes after year 2 or 3.
serious question, do you know how to read? does the bold literally not say it was a better deal for jones than nyg?
i dont know why i spend time arguing with someone who has a multiple personality disorder, probably because it's so hard to keep up with your new handles on the BBI Mute list, but as a final goodbye (until the next handle) ill refer you back to my exchange with christian earlier in this very thread.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=640922&show_all=1#16306613
Typical spin from you. Let me summarize the highlights from your own post Eric:
- Overall Deal Grade for Giants is between B+ and A+
- Maybe deal could have been cheaper but still better than tag
- You actually wished the Giants got a 5th year of Jones
- Really good deal for both sides
- Slightly better for Jones because he will easily reach performance incentives
- Jones reaching incentives is more likely than him busting
You missed it, and you missed it huge. Understanding how the cap and contracts are structured is one thing but you seemingly miss on the most important underlying concept there is when you type your lecture posts - Player Evaluation.
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In comment 16307850 ThomasG said:
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Quote:
they got a player they wanted at a fair price with fair protections
Eric on Li : 3/8/2023 7:09 pm : link
A+ for creativity, flexibility, no drama execution
solid B+/A for the deal itself
i think there was only a little bit of daylight for this contract to have been better but not been so overly favorable that it was worth signing over the tag. i think getting a 5th year would have been a positive, but id imagine the cost of getting was more expensive.
i think this is a really good deal for both sides, but perhaps a slightly better deal for jones than the nyg depending on the incentives because based on the PFT report im thinking the incentives are much more likely to pay out than the giants using the emergency chutes after year 2 or 3.
serious question, do you know how to read? does the bold literally not say it was a better deal for jones than nyg?
i dont know why i spend time arguing with someone who has a multiple personality disorder, probably because it's so hard to keep up with your new handles on the BBI Mute list, but as a final goodbye (until the next handle) ill refer you back to my exchange with christian earlier in this very thread.
https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=640922&show_all=1#16306613
Typical spin from you. Let me summarize the highlights from your own post Eric:
- Overall Deal Grade for Giants is between B+ and A+
- Maybe deal could have been cheaper but still better than tag
- You actually wished the Giants got a 5th year of Jones
- Really good deal for both sides
- Slightly better for Jones because he will easily reach performance incentives
- Jones reaching incentives is more likely than him busting
You missed it, and you missed it huge. Understanding how the cap and contracts are structured is one thing but you seemingly miss on the most important underlying concept there is when you type your lecture posts - Player Evaluation.
its flattering to know you have such high standards for my player evaluation skills but the reason i stick to contracts and #'s in most of my posts is because that's a far less subjective area. what teams pay players is what they think of players and most of my posts start from that (or non-subjective statistical comps). that's their evaluation. putting my player evaluation hat on were he healthy id still have a lot less concern over jones talent to succeed than the aggregate of their misfires on the OL the past 2 years. even when jones and the offense had good moments in 2022 that's where dallas/philly still dominated them.
on one hand you say that but on the other you dont like the idea of drafting nix - which is totally fair because i have my own reservations about him - but that's my point, i think there are unrealistic expectations about finding qbs in general. all of us as fans get wrapped in liking certain guys and not others.
i loved (and still very much like) bryce young because what he did against the SEC (especially UGA 3 or 4x in big games) had me more convinced than any recent qb he was ready for the NFL. his anticipation, ball distribution, escapability were all among what i think the most important traits are in the game today and he was battle tested. the nfl agreed as he was the consensus #1 player on all the lists ahead of more tools-rich players, he got drafted there, and now most fans make smurf jokes and frank reich is fired.
so all of that is to say my prism for qbs is that it's these guys jobs on the line and they know it better than us. it is their single biggest decision, they watch every ounce of tape, and they know 1 million times better than us which players are the right fits for their schemes. and they get significantly more wrong than right. it's easy to not like guys (theres a reason for the saying most popular player on every team is backup qb). fans can be much more casual about changing qbs because our jobs arent on the line.
I said I wouldn't like Nix as a first round investment, especially in the lottery. But a day two or early day three idea is more interesting.
It's way too early to write the obituary on Young, but that size was always going to be a challenge. It stinks for him right now that he's in such chaos in Charlotte.
Look, I know Schoen is a professional evaluator, but it that shouldn't mean we should just trust their decisions. Especially a guy like Schoen who has never been in the chair that swings the gavel. And the draft/evaluation process is still more art than science.
But circling back to Jones, do you really think he has skills that you trust moving forward? Skills that you observe and go, "Yeah, those are good enough to win big prizes..."
And your post above on DJ is a good example of how you missed, and missed it huge.
It is a fan opinion board and we all miss so no big deal. Unless, of course, you want to continue to make yourself out to be a big deal. That is up to you.
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on one hand you say that but on the other you dont like the idea of drafting nix - which is totally fair because i have my own reservations about him - but that's my point, i think there are unrealistic expectations about finding qbs in general. all of us as fans get wrapped in liking certain guys and not others.
i loved (and still very much like) bryce young because what he did against the SEC (especially UGA 3 or 4x in big games) had me more convinced than any recent qb he was ready for the NFL. his anticipation, ball distribution, escapability were all among what i think the most important traits are in the game today and he was battle tested. the nfl agreed as he was the consensus #1 player on all the lists ahead of more tools-rich players, he got drafted there, and now most fans make smurf jokes and frank reich is fired.
so all of that is to say my prism for qbs is that it's these guys jobs on the line and they know it better than us. it is their single biggest decision, they watch every ounce of tape, and they know 1 million times better than us which players are the right fits for their schemes. and they get significantly more wrong than right. it's easy to not like guys (theres a reason for the saying most popular player on every team is backup qb). fans can be much more casual about changing qbs because our jobs arent on the line.
I said I wouldn't like Nix as a first round investment, especially in the lottery. But a day two or early day three idea is more interesting.
It's way too early to write the obituary on Young, but that size was always going to be a challenge. It stinks for him right now that he's in such chaos in Charlotte.
Look, I know Schoen is a professional evaluator, but it that shouldn't mean we should just trust their decisions. Especially a guy like Schoen who has never been in the chair that swings the gavel. And the draft/evaluation process is still more art than science.
But circling back to Jones, do you really think he has skills that you trust moving forward? Skills that you observe and go, "Yeah, those are good enough to win big prizes..."
if you dont have an elite starting qb, picking your starting qb is trusting the tallest midget. you and i have talked jones since that draft year and the ryan finley days, i thought jones had the alex smith/tannehill (pre-ten) skill set and i think that's still well within his capability so long as he returns healthy (which is a ?). Alex Smith didnt have his first winning season until year 6 age 27 and then won a heck of a lot of games after that even if he didnt win the big one.
And your post above on DJ is a good example of how you missed, and missed it huge.
It is a fan opinion board and we all miss so no big deal. Unless, of course, you want to continue to make yourself out to be a big deal. That is up to you.
the only one making a big deal out of my opinions is you, and your multiple handles that seem to stalk and chronicle my posts. but your right it's fan opinion board so i guess im glad to have fans even if they are all the same guy who pretends to be different guys a few times each year.
The one you were clueless on and missed. By a mile.
Maybe you will reserve judgment or listen to others in a more prudent fashion until you actually get an opinion on one these bigger deals correct.
But again, that is up to you.
The one you were clueless on and missed. By a mile.
Maybe you will reserve judgment or listen to others in a more prudent fashion until you actually get an opinion on one these bigger deals correct.
But again, that is up to you.
not really no, after this ill mute you and be done with it since i assume nobody else cares. if there's one thing you're good at it's stalking so i assume you already found the worst of my takes (and if jones comes back healthy i think the contract will hold up fine, just as the leonard williams contract ended up working out just fine).
you seem to feel really validated by what amounted to 4 bad losses this year, which you are free to feel, but ill caution the same things i said in 2022 ahead of jones' last prove it year when you and many others were confident that would be his last year here. he's under contract that essentially guarantees him 2024, it's unlikely they spend to bring in a veteran to compete with him, and it's at best even odds a rookie would beat him out if he's healthy. so while you want to shoot him to the moon over the 4 games his contract makes it unlikely and if he's healthy whatever miniscule probability you'd peg on him coming back again in 2025, in reality it's higher.
This would have been less expensive and allowed the Giants to rid themselves of the big Jones contract after only one year.
From management perspective the most sense is to position yourself to get rid of the biggest contract as soon as possible if things dont work out.
Now, if I can see this i am sure Schoen could see it. So why was this not done? This decision has Mara written all over it. It is the only logical explanation.
I mean just think about it. The highest salary by far should be the one that you want in a position to jettison as soon as possible if things go south.
Mara loved Jones and I am sure he bent Schoens ear. Schoen did his best to leave himself an out.
There is simply no good reason to have not franchised Jones.
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Five years in and still the argument for Jones can only be based on criticizing the conditions around him.
I can't believe this nightmare is still going on. I will admit I've been dead wrong about how long Jones would be here. Never thought it would get this far. Shame on me for that.
I can't figure it out, either. It's the most bizarre situation I have ever seen in my time here at BBI.
I don't who is dumber at this point: Me for not seeing what others apparently see in Jones? Schoen for re-signing Jones? Or the DJFC?
I'll keep repeating what others have wisely pointed out - if Jones was on another team and available in free agency, this board would be near unanimous in having zero interest in signing him.
While I'm not a Barkley guy in the sense of wanting to pay him big dollars, he has been infinitely more productive at his position than Jones. So, I can see why posters would push to keep him. At least defenses fear him.
What is confusing to me is that both of you believe that other’s opinion’s don’t matter. I will be kind and leave it at.