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| 5. Bo Nix (QB, Oregon) The New York Giants might feel like the New York Jets did when the latter lost out on Trevor Lawrence and opted to settle on Zach Wilson, but the Giants would be making out much better than their rival. Bo Nix has been terrific the last two seasons, boasting efficiency numbers that are almost hard to believe. He’ll get ridiculed for checking down more than hunting big plays, but that inner playmaker who can create on his own is still in there. Don’t be surprised if Nix plays better in the NFL than in college, just like his predecessor Justin Herbert has. Let’s start with the first pick, because that’s the one that would make or break this draft — and likely the careers of Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll. Nix is a fifth-year senior who started his career at Auburn before transferring to Oregon before the 2022 season. Nix was considered the No. 2 quarterback recruit in the country coming out of high school and was heavily recruited by the biggest programs in college football. He received scholarship offers from Auburn, Alabama, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, and Tennessee before settling on Auburn. Nix has all the traits that teams look for in a top quarterback prospect. He has solid size at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, is a good athlete, and has plenty of arm talent. He’s able to flow in the pocket, escape and run, and has the arm attack all areas of the field from a variety of platforms. However, he he was never able to do more than flash that upside at Auburn, leading to his transfer and falling off the national radar. Nix blossomed since arriving in Oregon and finally looks like the player Auburn hoped they were getting when he signed his letter of intent. He’s having a Heisman-worthy season and is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Per Pro Football Focus, Nix leads the country in adjusted completion rate (85.6 percent) and turnover-worthy plays rate (0.7 percent) — while also throwing for 37 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. He’s also (by my own number crunching) dropped his sack rate from a high of 6 percent in 2020 to 1.2 percent this year. At the same time, he’s improved his completion percentage and yards per attempt in each of his five years as well. |
whichever one they choose will likely come down to who separates in the interviews and off field stuff, which schoen pretty flatly said yesterday:
At #5...X infinity.
Nix has zero plus physical attributes. Zero.
But either way, if it comes down to Nix or best player available, hope they take BPA, and try and get him in round 2, or late round 1.
Dude. There are five games left to go. People act like that was a Week 18 game & we're locked in @ 6.
As for Nix, his time in Auburn is burned into my brain. & here's a hint...he wasn't that good @ Auburn.
He’s a different player now.He’ll go in the first round Think he’ll be a good one, time will tell.
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will have sorry consequences.
Dude. There are five games left to go. People act like that was a Week 18 game & we're locked in @ 6.
As for Nix, his time in Auburn is burned into my brain. & here's a hint...he wasn't that good @ Auburn.
agree completely... we should have beat the Jets and Bills... that would mean we would be 6-6... we aren't as bad as some would hope we are.
I would rather ride with DJ for another year.
There are only a few NFL draft people I respect, such as Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler. Brugler doesn't even mention Nix as QB3. Not even the top 50. It's still a long process ahead of us but Nix is a good college QB but I don't see him translating well in the NFL. Jayden Daniels, I'm in.
If they trade down a little and draft Nix, I'm fine with that. I think he's better than he's being given credit for. I don't see the huge gulf between him and Maye, for example.
I would rather ride with DJ for another year.
There are only a few NFL draft people I respect, such as Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler. Brugler doesn't even mention Nix as QB3. Not even the top 50. It's still a long process ahead of us but Nix is a good college QB but I don't see him translating well in the NFL. Jayden Daniels, I'm in.
Jetemiah always gets the QB’s right:
Link - ( New Window )
If they trade down a little and draft Nix, I'm fine with that. I think he's better than he's being given credit for. I don't see the huge gulf between him and Maye, for example.
Maye is a bigger, stronger, faster QB/athlete than Nix.
He just projects better.
I agree Nix is better prospect than Jones, but his value is later in the draft.
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2nd or 3rd round maybe...1st round top 10 no way.
I would rather ride with DJ for another year.
There are only a few NFL draft people I respect, such as Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler. Brugler doesn't even mention Nix as QB3. Not even the top 50. It's still a long process ahead of us but Nix is a good college QB but I don't see him translating well in the NFL. Jayden Daniels, I'm in.
Jetemiah always gets the QB’s right: Link - ( New Window )
Good point. That just goes to show, “Nobody knows anything.”
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In comment 16306731 Rave7 said:
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2nd or 3rd round maybe...1st round top 10 no way.
I would rather ride with DJ for another year.
There are only a few NFL draft people I respect, such as Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler. Brugler doesn't even mention Nix as QB3. Not even the top 50. It's still a long process ahead of us but Nix is a good college QB but I don't see him translating well in the NFL. Jayden Daniels, I'm in.
Jetemiah always gets the QB’s right: Link - ( New Window )
Good point. That just goes to show, “Nobody knows anything.”
You got that right, brother.
Of course, Beane hadn't done something so egregious as signing a QB to an enormous contract the year prior to drafting Allen... ;)
The Auburn nonsense again. First it was the legacy recruit and that is why he beat out Willis. Be something if Nix is the player actually goes pick 5.
Played pretty well at Auburn his freshman year. Malzahn was fired after his second season. Nix was one of twenty players who left after Harsin's first season who was fired before the end of year 2. Seems like a lot going on at Auburn imv.
He has had a dramatic resurgence since transferring to Oregon. His statistics this year are gaudy. But he’s had plenty of time to throw at Oregon. Fifty of the sixty sacks he’s incurred in his career were at Auburn. Others who know more say he did not play well under pressure.
But he was SEC freshman of the year in 2019, and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl. His next two years were forgettable, but he did have three head coaches during that time. He also broke his ankle in 2020, and that was a COVID year.
I like his swagger and field presence. He seems to have good accuracy. I’ve seen him make quite a few pinpoint throws. But many of his receivers are wide open. He is also mobile and can run.
The question is how much his last two years at Auburn should be overlooked by his last two at Oregon. It will be interesting to see how the Giants and the NFL answer that question.
He had a rough go at Auburn and was not very good, but he flashed his talent. They had an awful passing attack and Nix was thought of as a running QB.
I was biased against Nix based upon his tenure at Auburn, but then I watched him play. He has all the skills and what may separate him from the other prospects is that he is very accurate and precise in his passing.
Nix has improved every year yo a point where there is place for him to go.
Nix may be the most NFL ready QB and these easiest to project.
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In comment 16306711 jinkies said:
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will have sorry consequences.
Dude. There are five games left to go. People act like that was a Week 18 game & we're locked in @ 6.
As for Nix, his time in Auburn is burned into my brain. & here's a hint...he wasn't that good @ Auburn.
agree completely... we should have beat the Jets and Bills... that would mean we would be 6-6... we aren't as bad as some would hope we are.
There is no we should have.. yea if you stack all the tossup games to our side, we make the playoffs every year, but they are tossups for a reason. We're horrible.
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In comment 16306714 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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In comment 16306711 jinkies said:
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will have sorry consequences.
Dude. There are five games left to go. People act like that was a Week 18 game & we're locked in @ 6.
As for Nix, his time in Auburn is burned into my brain. & here's a hint...he wasn't that good @ Auburn.
agree completely... we should have beat the Jets and Bills... that would mean we would be 6-6... we aren't as bad as some would hope we are.
There is no we should have.. yea if you stack all the tossup games to our side, we make the playoffs every year, but they are tossups for a reason. We're horrible.
I am not talking tossup games... we should have won that Jets game. They needed a miracle and got one. The Bills game that is a TD if Waller isn't interfered with. They should have at least had one more shot and probably win that game. I know you wish we are worse than we are so you can enjoy the draft more but we aren't... sorry.
There is as close to zero chance of that happening as can be imagined. Daniels is faster, has a better arm, better release, more dynamic, and has performed better in a far more difficult defensive conference.
It's just not even debatable.
Yes, I love Daniels. In fact, I'd take him over Maye. His dual threat ability would be on par with Lamar, but better because he's a more accurate thrower.
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Awful
At #5...X infinity.
Nix has zero plus physical attributes. Zero.
This is why so many on this site fail in QB evaluations. Many here get so fixated on arm strength or the ability to run from the pocket that they lose sight of what actually makes a successful QB.
Attribute #1 above all others- accuracy. Nix has it in spades- in fact, when you watch some of the outs and hook patterns he throws, the ball is away and on the receiver before the receiver makes his break- they turn and the ball is there. Jones couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn if he was standing 2 feet from it.
Go back and watch several games of the latest fixation on this site- Daniels. He throws a good deep ball- but is often inaccurate. The inaccuracy increases the shorter the throw is. In many ways, he reminds me of Richardson who the Colts drafted. Right now, in the NFL he would be a better runner than QB. He simply does not have the play to play accuracy and skills to succeed- and would likely need to watch and learn for at least a year- maybe more.
Attribute #2- knowing what the defense is giving you. Too often we see QBs trying to process post-snap what the defense is doing. Yes, NFL Defensive coordinators get paid to confuse QBs pre-snap. However, you can see the QBs who understand what they are seeing (likely from tape and game planning) and adjust accordingly pre-snap. Nix displays a great level of understanding of what the defense is doing and makes a rapid decision where to go with the ball.
Just look at Devito for example. When he sees the open receiver and knows what he is looking at, the throws are great. However, he also takes a TON of sacks (not the OLs fault) because he holds the ball so long trying to process what he is seeing. Jones is even worse. The rapid and decisive decision-making AND knows what the defense is giving you is missing from both QBs games.
Attribute #3- knowing the OL protection and the routes your receivers are running. Too often we see a QB start to scramble- and literally runs right into the defender and take the sack. When you watch Nix carefully, when he leaves the pocket, it is early and to a location where he doesn’t run into the defender immediately and buys him time to get the ball away. In other words, he has the presence of mind to remember what the protection is while simultaneously remembering the routes his receviers are on and get them the ball.
Go ahead and watch Jones in the pocket- he often runs right into the defender. Some of that is the leaky OL, but often it is his inability to maintain calm under fire- and he panics and leaves the pocket- right toward the rusher.
Obviously, Daniels skill set here is superior because he has tremendous elusiveness and quickly gets upfield- though this is not out of any sense of where his protection is, but because of his speed. As you saw in the Alabama game, he doesn’t have a good feel for the pocket and takes a LOT of hits he doesn’t need to.
All in all, many here need to lose the “arm strength is the first and last most important factor” thinking. This isn’t the 1970s anymore where having a big armed QB who can drive the ball deep wins games. DBs are MUCH better today and inaccuracy leads to picks. Look at Josh Allen this season. So many of his picks are attempts to force the ball into a small window because he believes his arm strength will allow him to get the ball there. Too often, it is actually a bad read and the throw isn’t accurate- its just muscle it up and fire.
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In comment 16306688 JT039 said:
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Awful
At #5...X infinity.
Nix has zero plus physical attributes. Zero.
This is why so many on this site fail in QB evaluations.
And there’s others like you to fail recognize such obvious factors on why he looks better than he is and try to insult others intelligence continually.
1. He plays in a gimmick style offense that doesn’t work in the NFL.
2. His team is loaded with talent (their run game might be better than their pass game.
3. Plays in the worst defensive conference in college.
4. What are his plus attributes? Throwing to wide open guys (many on short to intermediate routes isn’t an attribute - sorry)
5. He has been sacked 5 times and been pressured the least amount in college football. And please don’t give me it’s his “high IQ” and knowing where to go with the ball. A huge amount of QBs know where to get to the ball too they just don’t have the luxury of having all day and wide open people.
6. He’s 23 playing 5 full major years in college football against inexperienced players. He should be doing this.
He will get drafted maybe even in the first round because teams are dumb and ready for QBs. But this guy is not a franchise QB. He has proven that he needs ideal surroundings to be very good. Want to rehash his career when he played real defenses?
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In comment 16306688 JT039 said:
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Awful
At #5...X infinity.
Nix has zero plus physical attributes. Zero.
This is why so many on this site fail in QB evaluations. Many here get so fixated on arm strength or the ability to run from the pocket that they lose sight of what actually makes a successful QB.
No, no offense taken at all.
A deep QB draft just means that, if true, there are plenty of backup QB's to be had.
How many quality starters do you ever get in a single draft?
Some years, none.
At most? Three?
Nix is going much earlier than the end of the first. You guys watch a lot more college football than I do so I bow toward your evals.
The only questions I have is why ding Nix's production in the Pac whatever it is now but not Williams'? And my initial impression of Daniels, who is no doubt impressive, is that he looks at the first read and takes off running. Yes? No?
I think the attribute about panicking and running into the defender is a very good one.
Agree about the over emphasis on arm strength but I think some posters just get used to using these buzz words: elite arm talent, off schedule, etc.
I like the big arms and they have to have at least enough arm to make all the throws. I do think playing in the NFCE it is a big deal as weather factors in later in the season.
If a prospect has a great size, great arm, great release, great speed, great movement you know those abilities will transfer because they are all physical attributes. IMV, those are the skills you invest in with a high pick and hope to develop the other parts that are much less predictable.
Look, if we took Nix on day two or early day three, I am more intrigued because that's fairer value.
Nix at 5 is a reach like we havent seen since.... 2019