everyone knows the top 2 qbs and there seem to be sizable contingents for daniels/penix/nix, so it seems like JJ is a little more under the radar but i think by draft time that may change. dane brugler has him in his most recent 1st rd mock so not exactly a hidden gem but i think his lesser topline stats are hiding some upside purely because his offense has him taking a lot less drop backs than the other top QBs.
in a year with a bunch of 5th/6th year overage QBs he's the opposite at only 20 years old (turns 21 in january). by way of comparison caleb williams just turned 22, drake maye turns 22 in august, jayden daniels turns 23 in december, penix/nix will turn 24 before their first training camp.
pff has his turnover worthy plays a little on the high side (3.1%) by percentage but still lower than caleb williams (3.6%). drake maye is 2%, and all 3 of those guys are higher than the older more experienced QBs who are all between .7-1.9%. in aggregate he has similar numbers of total TWP at roughly 1 per game - just in far fewer drop backs. his 287 drop backs are more than 200 fewer than drake maye's 506. but all in all a pretty impressive number when you factor in the age/years of experience.
mccarthy has more big time throws than nix in more than 100 fewer drop backs, a big time throw % higher than both penix/caleb williams, more rushing yards than penix/nix, and functions from a more stodgy pro style offense that plays tougher defenses than the p12 in generally worse weather. so if you context adjust it makes sense that he hasnt put up the kind of 30-40 td years the others have. put him in an offense that dropped back more and maybe he would have. for the ypa fans he's behind only daniels, who also has the most explosive weapons (nabers). 2nd highest completion % behind nix, whose offense has him throwing behind the LOS a lot.
below is a good 3-4 minute with urban meyer, not exactly a qb guru, but breaking down some of his plays beating #2 OSU without harbough he seemed pretty impressed. next up is #16 iowa in the b1g cg, then possibly CFB playoff. from the look of some of his off platform throws and with the combination of tools/success he's leading at such a young age, i would imagine qb coaches are going to see a guy they can mold with a lot of upside. i dont typically watch a ton of b1g but will probably do so starting with the champ game.
id imagine if he can complete an undefeated season with some big performances he will make himself a lot of money and maybe even get the top 2 into a top 3.
He had a bunch of good plays, but I've picked three @CoachUrbanMeyer and @gerrydinardo hit the film room to spotlight @jjmccarthy09 's play in @UMichFootball 's win over Ohio State. - (
New Window )
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
JJ was awful against Maryland. Probably the worst game of his career. But he got hurt against PSU and bounced back nicely against OSU.
Beck should stay one more year. I think he has a real chance of going #1 in 2025.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
Beck has size and what looks like a solid arm. But, JFC, it's pretty comfortable down there in Athens when you drop back and you can count 1 Mississippi, 2 Mississippi, 3 Mississippi, 4 Mississippi...And then hit a wide-open Bowers, McConkey, or Lovett.
He was hurt. It's pretty well known at this point that he couldnt run or plant his leg. Has absolutely nothing to do with the coaches believing in him.
Quote:
and was not looking sharp at all.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
JJ was awful against Maryland. Probably the worst game of his career. But he got hurt against PSU and bounced back nicely against OSU.
Beck should stay one more year. I think he has a real chance of going #1 in 2025.
Agree, I recall Maryland game was a disaster. Realize the Big Ten flexed some muscles on defense this year but the QB play on the lead dog teams has really been bad.
Don't think Michigan can keep up scoring with better teams in country because of it.
Quote:
and was not looking sharp at all.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
Beck has size and what looks like a solid arm. But, JFC, it's pretty comfortable down there in Athens when you drop back and you can count 1 Mississippi, 2 Mississippi, 3 Mississippi, 4 Mississippi...And then hit a wide-open Bowers, McConkey, or Lovett.
Big game for Mr. Beck this weekend.
Quote:
In comment 16308248 ThomasG said:
Quote:
and was not looking sharp at all.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
JJ was awful against Maryland. Probably the worst game of his career. But he got hurt against PSU and bounced back nicely against OSU.
Beck should stay one more year. I think he has a real chance of going #1 in 2025.
Agree, I recall Maryland game was a disaster. Realize the Big Ten flexed some muscles on defense this year but the QB play on the lead dog teams has really been bad.
Don't think Michigan can keep up scoring with better teams in country because of it.
Yeah will be interesting. Michigan obviously will try ball control and long drives. I think they can beat or at least be very competitive with everyone but Georgia and Alabama. Oregon and Washington don’t defend and FSU minus Travis is obviously not as good.
I think - in terms of perception - JJ suffers because he seems to be more jack-of-all trades versus the rest of the prospects.
Williams and Maye - all-world arm talent
Jayden Daniels - incredible athleticism + deep throw mastery
Bo Nix - excellent processor and decision-maker for intermediate and short range passes
Michael Penix - technician who can hit all the routes
For me, I can imagine Daboll working his magic with all of these guys, because they all seem to have one elite-level skill (which is why I'm higher on Nix then some), but I'm unsure what JJ's elite skill is at this point.
JJ has been pretty consistent in his two seasons in that system. He made a big jump in completion percentage this season which makes sense. How much more potential growth is there at the next level? Good thing he is still playing.
For all the discussion of Nix's years at Oregon compared to Auburn I think one as big to understand is Daniels two seasons at LSU. You posted his stats from last season but take a look at 2022 with LSU:
266/388 68.6 2913 7.5 17TD 3INT
23 more TD's and 4.2 yard increase in YPA. Even his rushing YPC went up by 2.6 yards compared to his previous best season.
So you have a younger QB who maybe has quite a bit of untapped potential in McCarthy. Schoen did say you really have to dig into these QB's......
I don't think he can get away with the scrambling he does in college in the NFL, the better athletes will eat him alive.
There is a reason he has a lot less attempts than the other QBs, they lean on the run game for a reason. Link - ( New Window )
harbough's offense has been that since he went back to CFB. they are a 40/60 run/pass team. im not sure he's had a WR drafted since he went back.
There’s about 8 QBs who are much better than Jones in this draft. McCarthy does everything better than Jones.
Quote:
It's from Maryland game last year, arguably one of his worst performances, but he seems to lack a feel for the pocket, bailing on perfectly good protection, and at other times not feeling the pressure.
I don't think he can get away with the scrambling he does in college in the NFL, the better athletes will eat him alive.
There is a reason he has a lot less attempts than the other QBs, they lean on the run game for a reason. Link - ( New Window )
harbough's offense has been that since he went back to CFB. they are a 40/60 run/pass team. im not sure he's had a WR drafted since he went back.
Nico Collins and Donovan People Jones were mid round picks. He usually has more success with his tight ends. Colston Loveland will be a top TE next year in the draft.
Have there been any discussion of him staying at Michigan?
if he's not the clear qb3 (where brugler has him) he probably stays in school, so i think there's a lot riding on these last few games for him.
good article from the athletic previewing b1g cg today.
For me, McCarthy is a QB prospect who should land in the back half of Round 1 this draft. But he might wind up closer to mid-Round 2 on a few boards simply because there’s not enough of that desired data. His arm talent, acceleration, IQ and competitiveness are all things scouts love.
Iowa’s offense is bad. Everyone knows that. But its defense is outstanding, and it’ll provide another terrific test of McCarthy’s NFL readiness — and a chance for him to add to his ring collection.
this depends on how he holds up vs the defenses he's about to face but if he performs well, id have a real hard time taking one of the 5th/6th year breakouts over him. i think people arent nearly remembering what daniels looked like in his first few years at ASU and using that to project forward what a 20 year old like mccarthy would look like at age 22 in the SEC or P12 with a bunch of big time passing weapons.
Michigan-Iowa film study: Hawkeyes will test J.J. McCarthy’s NFL readiness - ( New Window )
Even if we assume that's true, getting similar performance at mid-late first round rookie value is an improvement. If we assume they are carrying $22 million of Jones dead cap in 2025, that still brings the overall cost for the starting QB below $30 million.
I'm not saying I even like McCarthy all that much (I don't) but if the Giants cannot get their hands on one of the top 3 and believe McCarthy can be Jones's equal (at minimum) there's an argument to be made for trying to get back into the 1st if he's there.
We wind up picking at 8 or so, miss out on Williams/Daniels/Maye. Good news is that with 3 of the 7 picks before us going to QBs and obviously MHJ too, we take Oduzne/Coleman/Nabers or whoever we like of the trio.
Later we trade both our second round picks to 31 or 32 to take McCarthy.
Now, we still have Jones and DeVito on the roster. Rather than insert him in the line up right away, we just develop him for year one and let Daboll work with him.
In this scenario I think he'd be successful and it would work well for us. He has tools and Daboll has shown he can develop a QB given the chance.
i could see something like that but if his draft stock is 1st round questionable he probably goes back to school. with NIL im sure he'd make 2m+ going back. transfer portal qbs are getting 1.5-2m right now, as a potential 1st rd pick on a national title team he may get 2x that or more.
I think - in terms of perception - JJ suffers because he seems to be more jack-of-all trades versus the rest of the prospects.
Williams and Maye - all-world arm talent
Jayden Daniels - incredible athleticism + deep throw mastery
Bo Nix - excellent processor and decision-maker for intermediate and short range passes
Michael Penix - technician who can hit all the routes
For me, I can imagine Daboll working his magic with all of these guys, because they all seem to have one elite-level skill (which is why I'm higher on Nix then some), but I'm unsure what JJ's elite skill is at this point.
if he goes undefeated "winner" could become the carry tool, but i agree he has the feeling of a tool box over tools prospect (though none of his tools seem overly detrimental).
i agree with your last line, though as ive mentioned the overager thing is always a concern with me. im sure someone will mention burrow just like they did with pickett but burrow was a unique situation. he never got the chance to fail at OSU and he didnt start 5+ years. he started 2 years at LSU and at OSU was behind a guy breaking records who also went round 1. his situation was more like Cam Newton being behind tebow. not these guys who started 2-3-4 years at IU, ASU, etc and just kept getting better by enough to get themselves to better situations.
JJ has been pretty consistent in his two seasons in that system. He made a big jump in completion percentage this season which makes sense. How much more potential growth is there at the next level? Good thing he is still playing.
For all the discussion of Nix's years at Oregon compared to Auburn I think one as big to understand is Daniels two seasons at LSU. You posted his stats from last season but take a look at 2022 with LSU:
266/388 68.6 2913 7.5 17TD 3INT
23 more TD's and 4.2 yard increase in YPA. Even his rushing YPC went up by 2.6 yards compared to his previous best season.
So you have a younger QB who maybe has quite a bit of untapped potential in McCarthy. Schoen did say you really have to dig into these QB's......
the rushing point is something that stands out. it's a big component of what daboll has run for 7 years now, not saying he couldnt make it work if he had herbert or mahomes but it's an extra layer that makes defense a lot harder.
Quote:
out there surrounding McCarthy.
We wind up picking at 8 or so, miss out on Williams/Daniels/Maye. Good news is that with 3 of the 7 picks before us going to QBs and obviously MHJ too, we take Oduzne/Coleman/Nabers or whoever we like of the trio.
Later we trade both our second round picks to 31 or 32 to take McCarthy.
Now, we still have Jones and DeVito on the roster. Rather than insert him in the line up right away, we just develop him for year one and let Daboll work with him.
In this scenario I think he'd be successful and it would work well for us. He has tools and Daboll has shown he can develop a QB given the chance.
i could see something like that but if his draft stock is 1st round questionable he probably goes back to school. with NIL im sure he'd make 2m+ going back. transfer portal qbs are getting 1.5-2m right now, as a potential 1st rd pick on a national title team he may get 2x that or more.
Him going back to school isn't off the table, I have a funny feeling that at least one of the QBs will. Even with 1-2mil guaranteed, its still a gamble. You take 2 mil now but fall and wind up a 5th round pick or go in the first round now, to me you take the first round paycheck when you have it.
Quote:
In comment 16308145 BH28 said:
Quote:
It's from Maryland game last year, arguably one of his worst performances, but he seems to lack a feel for the pocket, bailing on perfectly good protection, and at other times not feeling the pressure.
I don't think he can get away with the scrambling he does in college in the NFL, the better athletes will eat him alive.
There is a reason he has a lot less attempts than the other QBs, they lean on the run game for a reason. Link - ( New Window )
harbough's offense has been that since he went back to CFB. they are a 40/60 run/pass team. im not sure he's had a WR drafted since he went back.
Nico Collins and Donovan People Jones were mid round picks. He usually has more success with his tight ends. Colston Loveland will be a top TE next year in the draft.
good call on DPJ. for some reason i remembered collins going undrafted after the opt out. i think he had actually left the team so i guess that still counts bc he never ended up anywhere else but seeing how his game has improved in houston i think it helps show the limitations of what harbough's offense has been at um.
Quote:
In comment 16308207 Biteymax22 said:
Quote:
out there surrounding McCarthy.
We wind up picking at 8 or so, miss out on Williams/Daniels/Maye. Good news is that with 3 of the 7 picks before us going to QBs and obviously MHJ too, we take Oduzne/Coleman/Nabers or whoever we like of the trio.
Later we trade both our second round picks to 31 or 32 to take McCarthy.
Now, we still have Jones and DeVito on the roster. Rather than insert him in the line up right away, we just develop him for year one and let Daboll work with him.
In this scenario I think he'd be successful and it would work well for us. He has tools and Daboll has shown he can develop a QB given the chance.
i could see something like that but if his draft stock is 1st round questionable he probably goes back to school. with NIL im sure he'd make 2m+ going back. transfer portal qbs are getting 1.5-2m right now, as a potential 1st rd pick on a national title team he may get 2x that or more.
Him going back to school isn't off the table, I have a funny feeling that at least one of the QBs will. Even with 1-2mil guaranteed, its still a gamble. You take 2 mil now but fall and wind up a 5th round pick or go in the first round now, to me you take the first round paycheck when you have it.
i agree - if it's clear he's a 1st. the dropoff from round 1 to round 2 is big enough the NIL money becomes almost the same.
pick #33 gets a contract just under $11m. sb 4.8m, year 1 sal 800k.
pick #32 is just under $14m. sb 6.7m, year 1 sal of 800k.
pick #20 is just under $17m.
pick #46 is right around $9m.
those are all 4 year numbers, so if he has an offer of let's say $4-5m to return to UM, he's only making more than that over the next year if he gets picked in round 1. pick #32 vs #33 is a $2m cash in signing bonus difference.
I wouldnt draft him in round 1, but I think of all the QBs in this class - he has the most room to grow as far as potential.
He has that It factor, and in a way, reminds me of a better Daniel Jones. He has a stronger arm, and he does a better job when a play breaks down.
locke folded like a cheap suit against any good team he played. he saw ghosts as they say. he had arm talent but didnt see the field at all. he was a 4 year starter and only eclipsed 60% 1x as a senior. never once had a winning record in the SEC. no real mobility to speak of.
i don't see that comparison at all.
at age 20 in 2020, bo nix was coming off his second season as a started at AU and he had thrown for 12 tds / 7 ints in 11 games right at 60%. auburn was 6-5. doors blown off in 4/5 games they played against ranked opponents.
at that moment i dont think anyone would have predicted the type of heisman year bo nix put up this year. but at the same time i think anyone would have acknowledged that the 2023 season was a pretty long way out and anything could happen with different coaches in a different system, etc.
i think one of my biggest premises here w/r/t mccarthy as a draft prospect is the rarity of what he's leading on the field right now at his age. the big flashy tools/stats may not be there, but the closest comparables in terms of age/team success/performance grades are probably tua, lawrence, and bryce young. they all came through in the big games and now we'll see if mccarthy can do the same and elevate um where they have fallen short with harbough in cfb playoff.
He will likely test out as the #1 QB.
How many QBs can run a 4.4 forty?
He has a great arm.
McCarthy comes from an offense that does not highlight his skills. It is a run first game plan.
The scouting analysis below is fair.
Bye the way I am now getting into Nix's peripherals and he may be the best throwing QB and he protects the ball.
Link - ( New Window )
He will likely test out as the #1 QB.
How many QBs can run a 4.4 forty?
He has a great arm.
McCarthy comes from an offense that does not highlight his skills. It is a run first game plan.
The scouting analysis below is fair.
Bye the way I am now getting into Nix's peripherals and he may be the best throwing QB and he protects the ball.
Link - ( New Window )
those numbers are probably off. here are mccarthy's verified numbers from when he was a recruit in 2019:
Verified Results
FORTY
4.87
SECONDS
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
SHUTTLE
4.47
SECONDS
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
VERTICAL
30.00
INCHES
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
WEIGHT
181.00
POUNDS
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
HEIGHT
6-2
FEET
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
Daniel Jones ran a 4.81 with a 33 inch vert at the NFL combine, so if McCarthy has made any speed gains in the last 4 years (which id bet he has) he will be plenty fast, but i would very much doubt he goes under 4.6. that would be a lot of speed to add.
Yet, they wouldn't be where they are at without him. They wouldn't have beaten Ohio State without him.
Quote:
him as much as possible. Not what you would expect from a top talent. If we get past the top 2 (Williams, Daniels), I think I like Nix better, Maye too (I don't put Maye with the top two). I also like Ewers better than JJ if he comes out
Yet, they wouldn't be where they are at without him. They wouldn't have beaten Ohio State without him.
michigan is 18-0 in the big 10 the last 2 years with mccarthy starting.
prior to him as starter harbough wasnt undefeated in the big 10 ever and only won the conference once in 7 years. now he has a chance to go back to back. OSU had won 4 of the last 6 conf champs.
in 7 bowl games harbough is 1-6 (with mccarthy losing 1 of those games to TCU last year 51-45).
beating OSU was a major notch on harboughs belt and he was suspended for the game, as he was for the win over PSU. winning the big 10 again and winning in the CFBP would be more big notches and mccarthy has a chance to really elevate himself beyond the narratives.
i noticed the last few weeks since all that crap became public his confidence has crashed.
He strikes me as a game manager type and not a NFL level star.
3rd or 4th rd pick IMHO
Lets see what he does against Iowa, a very good defense.
Lets see what he does against Iowa, a very good defense.
he was 16/20 against OSU with a near perfect passer rating and his team won the game.
nowhere in this thread have i seen anyone saying he is a better than caleb williams but surely you see the difference between a team winning and losing big games? games like the ND specifically and the 0-4 record vs ranked teams this year are valid dings on caleb but again nobody is saying he isn't still a better prospect.
Lets see what he does against Iowa, a very good defense.
Again - why are you using the Penn State game as a means to evaulate him? He injured his knee during the game and his mobility was done and he had a hard time planting his leg. And with the lead, they didnt force anything. Check out his game last year against OSU without Corum if you dont think they dont trust him. Before Edwards finished the game off with two long TDs, McCarthy was dominating them.
And you wont see much against Iowa because they dont need to do much. They will get the lead and since Iowa cant score - they will just be ultra conservative like always.
"McCarthy said he ran a 4.7-second 40-yard dash when he came in as a "scrawny little freshman," but has most recently been timed at 4.48 seconds. Now bigger, faster, stronger, more knowledgeable" Oct 24, 2023
Quote:
"McCarthy said he ran a 4.7-second 40-yard dash when he came in as a "scrawny little freshman," but has most recently been timed at 4.48 seconds. Now bigger, faster, stronger, more knowledgeable" Oct 24, 2023
ok maybe i was off on 4.6 but id feel pretty comfortable betting over a 4.5. i think richardson's official last year was 4.43, fields was a 4.46. there have only been a handful of qbs who've run sub 4.5 (or 4.6) and almost all are 1k+ rushing yard qbs. josh allen ran a 4.76. hurts ran a 4.59.
However, McCarthy has been timed as fast as 21 MPH in game which is crazy fast.
"McCarthy's speed became something of legend last year when he took off like a shot in the Big Ten Championship game and got out in front of Blake Corum on the running back's long touchdown run against Iowa. "
Link - ( New Window )
However, McCarthy has been timed as fast as 21 MPH in game which is crazy fast.
Quote:
"McCarthy's speed became something of legend last year when he took off like a shot in the Big Ten Championship game and got out in front of Blake Corum on the running back's long touchdown run against Iowa. "
Link - ( New Window )
i think jones hit 21mph last year too and he ran a 4.81. not trying to be argumentative, just semantics. i certainly agree that mccarthy's athleticism is a big selling point as mentioned in a comment above. would just be pretty surprised if he's sub 4.6.
waaaayyyyy overrated
look at his #s now that he doesnt know the D from the other team
if he isnt a first round pick he isn't declaring.
as far as undefeated/top teams go, his situation is actually not that great. good running backs yes - but virtually every good CFB team has good running backs.
he's faced pressure at a higher % of time than penix and nix even though his offense is more built around the running game. yesterday he was pressured about 30% of the time and he was 20/28 with 2 drops - which was actually more pressure than either of nix/penix faced in their matchup friday. obviously he defense pitched a shutout and gave the um offense great field position so in that respect he didnt have as much he needed to do but that has nothing to do with anything a qb can control.
his WRs/Tes aren't that good, which has been a staple of the harbough era. nowhere in the same stratosphere as odunze, nabers, thomas, franklin, etc.
what do you think happens if we put him in the pac 12 in better weather, against worse defenses, with 1 or 2 of those guys, and throws the ball 30-40% more often?
now age him up 2 or 3 more years to age 22/23 on top.
none of us know the exact outcome of that experiment but we can take a bit of a guess if we look at what penix/nix/daniels were before they stepped into situations like that. and prior to those situations those guys werent winning back to back conf titles.
Penn St he was 7-8 60 yds 0 TD/0 int
Maryland- 12-23 141 yds 0 TD/0 int
Ohio St 16-20 148 yds 1TD/0 int
Iowa 22-30 147 yds 0 TD/ 0 int
Penn St he was 7-8 60 yds 0 TD/0 int
Maryland- 12-23 141 yds 0 TD/0 int
Ohio St 16-20 148 yds 1TD/0 int
Iowa 22-30 147 yds 0 TD/ 0 int
justin herbert's last 3 games as a senior at oregon:
maybe not the wisest move to blindly dismiss someone just because their head coach chooses to play the game a certain way?