everyone knows the top 2 qbs and there seem to be sizable contingents for daniels/penix/nix, so it seems like JJ is a little more under the radar but i think by draft time that may change. dane brugler has him in his most recent 1st rd mock so not exactly a hidden gem but i think his lesser topline stats are hiding some upside purely because his offense has him taking a lot less drop backs than the other top QBs.
in a year with a bunch of 5th/6th year overage QBs he's the opposite at only 20 years old (turns 21 in january). by way of comparison caleb williams just turned 22, drake maye turns 22 in august, jayden daniels turns 23 in december, penix/nix will turn 24 before their first training camp.
pff has his turnover worthy plays a little on the high side (3.1%) by percentage but still lower than caleb williams (3.6%). drake maye is 2%, and all 3 of those guys are higher than the older more experienced QBs who are all between .7-1.9%. in aggregate he has similar numbers of total TWP at roughly 1 per game - just in far fewer drop backs. his 287 drop backs are more than 200 fewer than drake maye's 506. but all in all a pretty impressive number when you factor in the age/years of experience.
mccarthy has more big time throws than nix in more than 100 fewer drop backs, a big time throw % higher than both penix/caleb williams, more rushing yards than penix/nix, and functions from a more stodgy pro style offense that plays tougher defenses than the p12 in generally worse weather. so if you context adjust it makes sense that he hasnt put up the kind of 30-40 td years the others have. put him in an offense that dropped back more and maybe he would have. for the ypa fans he's behind only daniels, who also has the most explosive weapons (nabers). 2nd highest completion % behind nix, whose offense has him throwing behind the LOS a lot.
below is a good 3-4 minute with urban meyer, not exactly a qb guru, but breaking down some of his plays beating #2 OSU without harbough he seemed pretty impressed. next up is #16 iowa in the b1g cg, then possibly CFB playoff. from the look of some of his off platform throws and with the combination of tools/success he's leading at such a young age, i would imagine qb coaches are going to see a guy they can mold with a lot of upside. i dont typically watch a ton of b1g but will probably do so starting with the champ game.
id imagine if he can complete an undefeated season with some big performances he will make himself a lot of money and maybe even get the top 2 into a top 3.
He had a bunch of good plays, but I've picked three @CoachUrbanMeyer and @gerrydinardo hit the film room to spotlight @jjmccarthy09 's play in @UMichFootball 's win over Ohio State. - (
New Window )
J.J. McCarthy highlights from Michigan's Week 13 win vs. Ohio State | NBC Sports - ( New Window )
I don't think he can get away with the scrambling he does in college in the NFL, the better athletes will eat him alive.
There is a reason he has a lot less attempts than the other QBs, they lean on the run game for a reason.
Link - ( New Window )
I don’t like his arm. Because it isn’t particularly strong, McCarthy needs to use his body to add velocity, which delays his release. Harbaugh uses a lot of short and easy sideline passes.
I’m willing to be convinced but McCarthy is an unexciting prospect. He may well be served best by another season in Ann Arbor.
In general, I'm skeptical of all QB's that come from big programs. I feel like if you play for a loaded team you should be lighting up the stats and look great every week. Those teams play a few good teams all year and the rest are far below them talent wise. If a college QB on one of those teams doesn't jump off the page on a loaded college team, why would I think he'd make the jump easily to the pros where the talent level is more equal.
The two things I see are:
- He seems to be a one-read QB.
- He seems to hold the ball low, leading to a longer arm action, at times almost a looping action that drops the ball almost to his waist when he wants extra velo. That means a slow release.
Those are two bad traits for an NFL QB.
I didn't see many throws in the OSU game that said to me this guy can be a good NFL QB. Ask yourself this. If he were the QB at Wisconsin or Nebraska would anyone have him in the top three rounds?
Have there been any discussion of him staying at Michigan?
I don't see anything too interesting about McCarthy yet. He is elusive and athletic. But I don't see much of a refined passer/thrower. Seems like a team would need to do a lot of work with JJMac. More of an early day three pick for my tastes...
We wind up picking at 8 or so, miss out on Williams/Daniels/Maye. Good news is that with 3 of the 7 picks before us going to QBs and obviously MHJ too, we take Oduzne/Coleman/Nabers or whoever we like of the trio.
Later we trade both our second round picks to 31 or 32 to take McCarthy.
Now, we still have Jones and DeVito on the roster. Rather than insert him in the line up right away, we just develop him for year one and let Daboll work with him.
In this scenario I think he'd be successful and it would work well for us. He has tools and Daboll has shown he can develop a QB given the chance.
Day 3 pick.
Have there been any discussion of him staying at Michigan?
He's somewhere between 5 and 7 on the list of QBs coming out this year, Do you think he can be higher then that next year?
I don't see him as being a top 3 QB next year so really don't think he has much momentum to gain by returning. Especially if they actually win a playoff game this year.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
I am the opposite. McCarthy has a much better arm and more athletic. He needs to learn to throw with some more touch on some passes but those say he doesnt have the arm strength are dead wrong. His arm strength is NFL caliber. Throws on the run very well.
He needs another year but his tools are superior to those of Penix and Nix. Hes my 4th rated Qb based off potential.
People need to realize that he doesnt play in a gimmick offense like Penix and Nix. And its not a wide open game. Plus, his OL isnt as good as people say. Their YPC is way down this year in the run game (see Donovan Edwards) and his tackles are pretty bad. A team like Georgia will crush him if he plays them.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
JJ was awful against Maryland. Probably the worst game of his career. But he got hurt against PSU and bounced back nicely against OSU.
Beck should stay one more year. I think he has a real chance of going #1 in 2025.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
Beck has size and what looks like a solid arm. But, JFC, it's pretty comfortable down there in Athens when you drop back and you can count 1 Mississippi, 2 Mississippi, 3 Mississippi, 4 Mississippi...And then hit a wide-open Bowers, McConkey, or Lovett.
He was hurt. It's pretty well known at this point that he couldnt run or plant his leg. Has absolutely nothing to do with the coaches believing in him.
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and was not looking sharp at all.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
JJ was awful against Maryland. Probably the worst game of his career. But he got hurt against PSU and bounced back nicely against OSU.
Beck should stay one more year. I think he has a real chance of going #1 in 2025.
Agree, I recall Maryland game was a disaster. Realize the Big Ten flexed some muscles on defense this year but the QB play on the lead dog teams has really been bad.
Don't think Michigan can keep up scoring with better teams in country because of it.
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and was not looking sharp at all.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
Beck has size and what looks like a solid arm. But, JFC, it's pretty comfortable down there in Athens when you drop back and you can count 1 Mississippi, 2 Mississippi, 3 Mississippi, 4 Mississippi...And then hit a wide-open Bowers, McConkey, or Lovett.
Big game for Mr. Beck this weekend.
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In comment 16308248 ThomasG said:
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and was not looking sharp at all.
To his credit, he made some big time plays in the win versus Ohio State but (and this won't sound good) but a few throws seemed like he got lucky. Carson Beck is third on that list?
JJ was awful against Maryland. Probably the worst game of his career. But he got hurt against PSU and bounced back nicely against OSU.
Beck should stay one more year. I think he has a real chance of going #1 in 2025.
Agree, I recall Maryland game was a disaster. Realize the Big Ten flexed some muscles on defense this year but the QB play on the lead dog teams has really been bad.
Don't think Michigan can keep up scoring with better teams in country because of it.
Yeah will be interesting. Michigan obviously will try ball control and long drives. I think they can beat or at least be very competitive with everyone but Georgia and Alabama. Oregon and Washington don’t defend and FSU minus Travis is obviously not as good.
I think - in terms of perception - JJ suffers because he seems to be more jack-of-all trades versus the rest of the prospects.
Williams and Maye - all-world arm talent
Jayden Daniels - incredible athleticism + deep throw mastery
Bo Nix - excellent processor and decision-maker for intermediate and short range passes
Michael Penix - technician who can hit all the routes
For me, I can imagine Daboll working his magic with all of these guys, because they all seem to have one elite-level skill (which is why I'm higher on Nix then some), but I'm unsure what JJ's elite skill is at this point.
JJ has been pretty consistent in his two seasons in that system. He made a big jump in completion percentage this season which makes sense. How much more potential growth is there at the next level? Good thing he is still playing.
For all the discussion of Nix's years at Oregon compared to Auburn I think one as big to understand is Daniels two seasons at LSU. You posted his stats from last season but take a look at 2022 with LSU:
266/388 68.6 2913 7.5 17TD 3INT
23 more TD's and 4.2 yard increase in YPA. Even his rushing YPC went up by 2.6 yards compared to his previous best season.
So you have a younger QB who maybe has quite a bit of untapped potential in McCarthy. Schoen did say you really have to dig into these QB's......
I don't think he can get away with the scrambling he does in college in the NFL, the better athletes will eat him alive.
There is a reason he has a lot less attempts than the other QBs, they lean on the run game for a reason. Link - ( New Window )
harbough's offense has been that since he went back to CFB. they are a 40/60 run/pass team. im not sure he's had a WR drafted since he went back.
There’s about 8 QBs who are much better than Jones in this draft. McCarthy does everything better than Jones.
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It's from Maryland game last year, arguably one of his worst performances, but he seems to lack a feel for the pocket, bailing on perfectly good protection, and at other times not feeling the pressure.
I don't think he can get away with the scrambling he does in college in the NFL, the better athletes will eat him alive.
There is a reason he has a lot less attempts than the other QBs, they lean on the run game for a reason. Link - ( New Window )
harbough's offense has been that since he went back to CFB. they are a 40/60 run/pass team. im not sure he's had a WR drafted since he went back.
Nico Collins and Donovan People Jones were mid round picks. He usually has more success with his tight ends. Colston Loveland will be a top TE next year in the draft.
Have there been any discussion of him staying at Michigan?
if he's not the clear qb3 (where brugler has him) he probably stays in school, so i think there's a lot riding on these last few games for him.
good article from the athletic previewing b1g cg today.
For me, McCarthy is a QB prospect who should land in the back half of Round 1 this draft. But he might wind up closer to mid-Round 2 on a few boards simply because there’s not enough of that desired data. His arm talent, acceleration, IQ and competitiveness are all things scouts love.
Iowa’s offense is bad. Everyone knows that. But its defense is outstanding, and it’ll provide another terrific test of McCarthy’s NFL readiness — and a chance for him to add to his ring collection.
this depends on how he holds up vs the defenses he's about to face but if he performs well, id have a real hard time taking one of the 5th/6th year breakouts over him. i think people arent nearly remembering what daniels looked like in his first few years at ASU and using that to project forward what a 20 year old like mccarthy would look like at age 22 in the SEC or P12 with a bunch of big time passing weapons.
Michigan-Iowa film study: Hawkeyes will test J.J. McCarthy’s NFL readiness - ( New Window )
Even if we assume that's true, getting similar performance at mid-late first round rookie value is an improvement. If we assume they are carrying $22 million of Jones dead cap in 2025, that still brings the overall cost for the starting QB below $30 million.
I'm not saying I even like McCarthy all that much (I don't) but if the Giants cannot get their hands on one of the top 3 and believe McCarthy can be Jones's equal (at minimum) there's an argument to be made for trying to get back into the 1st if he's there.
We wind up picking at 8 or so, miss out on Williams/Daniels/Maye. Good news is that with 3 of the 7 picks before us going to QBs and obviously MHJ too, we take Oduzne/Coleman/Nabers or whoever we like of the trio.
Later we trade both our second round picks to 31 or 32 to take McCarthy.
Now, we still have Jones and DeVito on the roster. Rather than insert him in the line up right away, we just develop him for year one and let Daboll work with him.
In this scenario I think he'd be successful and it would work well for us. He has tools and Daboll has shown he can develop a QB given the chance.
i could see something like that but if his draft stock is 1st round questionable he probably goes back to school. with NIL im sure he'd make 2m+ going back. transfer portal qbs are getting 1.5-2m right now, as a potential 1st rd pick on a national title team he may get 2x that or more.
I think - in terms of perception - JJ suffers because he seems to be more jack-of-all trades versus the rest of the prospects.
Williams and Maye - all-world arm talent
Jayden Daniels - incredible athleticism + deep throw mastery
Bo Nix - excellent processor and decision-maker for intermediate and short range passes
Michael Penix - technician who can hit all the routes
For me, I can imagine Daboll working his magic with all of these guys, because they all seem to have one elite-level skill (which is why I'm higher on Nix then some), but I'm unsure what JJ's elite skill is at this point.
if he goes undefeated "winner" could become the carry tool, but i agree he has the feeling of a tool box over tools prospect (though none of his tools seem overly detrimental).
i agree with your last line, though as ive mentioned the overager thing is always a concern with me. im sure someone will mention burrow just like they did with pickett but burrow was a unique situation. he never got the chance to fail at OSU and he didnt start 5+ years. he started 2 years at LSU and at OSU was behind a guy breaking records who also went round 1. his situation was more like Cam Newton being behind tebow. not these guys who started 2-3-4 years at IU, ASU, etc and just kept getting better by enough to get themselves to better situations.
JJ has been pretty consistent in his two seasons in that system. He made a big jump in completion percentage this season which makes sense. How much more potential growth is there at the next level? Good thing he is still playing.
For all the discussion of Nix's years at Oregon compared to Auburn I think one as big to understand is Daniels two seasons at LSU. You posted his stats from last season but take a look at 2022 with LSU:
266/388 68.6 2913 7.5 17TD 3INT
23 more TD's and 4.2 yard increase in YPA. Even his rushing YPC went up by 2.6 yards compared to his previous best season.
So you have a younger QB who maybe has quite a bit of untapped potential in McCarthy. Schoen did say you really have to dig into these QB's......
the rushing point is something that stands out. it's a big component of what daboll has run for 7 years now, not saying he couldnt make it work if he had herbert or mahomes but it's an extra layer that makes defense a lot harder.
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out there surrounding McCarthy.
We wind up picking at 8 or so, miss out on Williams/Daniels/Maye. Good news is that with 3 of the 7 picks before us going to QBs and obviously MHJ too, we take Oduzne/Coleman/Nabers or whoever we like of the trio.
Later we trade both our second round picks to 31 or 32 to take McCarthy.
Now, we still have Jones and DeVito on the roster. Rather than insert him in the line up right away, we just develop him for year one and let Daboll work with him.
In this scenario I think he'd be successful and it would work well for us. He has tools and Daboll has shown he can develop a QB given the chance.
i could see something like that but if his draft stock is 1st round questionable he probably goes back to school. with NIL im sure he'd make 2m+ going back. transfer portal qbs are getting 1.5-2m right now, as a potential 1st rd pick on a national title team he may get 2x that or more.
Him going back to school isn't off the table, I have a funny feeling that at least one of the QBs will. Even with 1-2mil guaranteed, its still a gamble. You take 2 mil now but fall and wind up a 5th round pick or go in the first round now, to me you take the first round paycheck when you have it.
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In comment 16308145 BH28 said:
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It's from Maryland game last year, arguably one of his worst performances, but he seems to lack a feel for the pocket, bailing on perfectly good protection, and at other times not feeling the pressure.
I don't think he can get away with the scrambling he does in college in the NFL, the better athletes will eat him alive.
There is a reason he has a lot less attempts than the other QBs, they lean on the run game for a reason. Link - ( New Window )
harbough's offense has been that since he went back to CFB. they are a 40/60 run/pass team. im not sure he's had a WR drafted since he went back.
Nico Collins and Donovan People Jones were mid round picks. He usually has more success with his tight ends. Colston Loveland will be a top TE next year in the draft.
good call on DPJ. for some reason i remembered collins going undrafted after the opt out. i think he had actually left the team so i guess that still counts bc he never ended up anywhere else but seeing how his game has improved in houston i think it helps show the limitations of what harbough's offense has been at um.
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In comment 16308207 Biteymax22 said:
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out there surrounding McCarthy.
We wind up picking at 8 or so, miss out on Williams/Daniels/Maye. Good news is that with 3 of the 7 picks before us going to QBs and obviously MHJ too, we take Oduzne/Coleman/Nabers or whoever we like of the trio.
Later we trade both our second round picks to 31 or 32 to take McCarthy.
Now, we still have Jones and DeVito on the roster. Rather than insert him in the line up right away, we just develop him for year one and let Daboll work with him.
In this scenario I think he'd be successful and it would work well for us. He has tools and Daboll has shown he can develop a QB given the chance.
i could see something like that but if his draft stock is 1st round questionable he probably goes back to school. with NIL im sure he'd make 2m+ going back. transfer portal qbs are getting 1.5-2m right now, as a potential 1st rd pick on a national title team he may get 2x that or more.
Him going back to school isn't off the table, I have a funny feeling that at least one of the QBs will. Even with 1-2mil guaranteed, its still a gamble. You take 2 mil now but fall and wind up a 5th round pick or go in the first round now, to me you take the first round paycheck when you have it.
i agree - if it's clear he's a 1st. the dropoff from round 1 to round 2 is big enough the NIL money becomes almost the same.
pick #33 gets a contract just under $11m. sb 4.8m, year 1 sal 800k.
pick #32 is just under $14m. sb 6.7m, year 1 sal of 800k.
pick #20 is just under $17m.
pick #46 is right around $9m.
those are all 4 year numbers, so if he has an offer of let's say $4-5m to return to UM, he's only making more than that over the next year if he gets picked in round 1. pick #32 vs #33 is a $2m cash in signing bonus difference.
I wouldnt draft him in round 1, but I think of all the QBs in this class - he has the most room to grow as far as potential.
He has that It factor, and in a way, reminds me of a better Daniel Jones. He has a stronger arm, and he does a better job when a play breaks down.
locke folded like a cheap suit against any good team he played. he saw ghosts as they say. he had arm talent but didnt see the field at all. he was a 4 year starter and only eclipsed 60% 1x as a senior. never once had a winning record in the SEC. no real mobility to speak of.
i don't see that comparison at all.
at age 20 in 2020, bo nix was coming off his second season as a started at AU and he had thrown for 12 tds / 7 ints in 11 games right at 60%. auburn was 6-5. doors blown off in 4/5 games they played against ranked opponents.
at that moment i dont think anyone would have predicted the type of heisman year bo nix put up this year. but at the same time i think anyone would have acknowledged that the 2023 season was a pretty long way out and anything could happen with different coaches in a different system, etc.
i think one of my biggest premises here w/r/t mccarthy as a draft prospect is the rarity of what he's leading on the field right now at his age. the big flashy tools/stats may not be there, but the closest comparables in terms of age/team success/performance grades are probably tua, lawrence, and bryce young. they all came through in the big games and now we'll see if mccarthy can do the same and elevate um where they have fallen short with harbough in cfb playoff.
He will likely test out as the #1 QB.
How many QBs can run a 4.4 forty?
He has a great arm.
McCarthy comes from an offense that does not highlight his skills. It is a run first game plan.
The scouting analysis below is fair.
Bye the way I am now getting into Nix's peripherals and he may be the best throwing QB and he protects the ball.
Link - ( New Window )
He will likely test out as the #1 QB.
How many QBs can run a 4.4 forty?
He has a great arm.
McCarthy comes from an offense that does not highlight his skills. It is a run first game plan.
The scouting analysis below is fair.
Bye the way I am now getting into Nix's peripherals and he may be the best throwing QB and he protects the ball.
Link - ( New Window )
those numbers are probably off. here are mccarthy's verified numbers from when he was a recruit in 2019:
Verified Results
FORTY
4.87
SECONDS
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
SHUTTLE
4.47
SECONDS
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
VERTICAL
30.00
INCHES
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
WEIGHT
181.00
POUNDS
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
HEIGHT
6-2
FEET
THE OPENING REGIONAL
04/14/19
Daniel Jones ran a 4.81 with a 33 inch vert at the NFL combine, so if McCarthy has made any speed gains in the last 4 years (which id bet he has) he will be plenty fast, but i would very much doubt he goes under 4.6. that would be a lot of speed to add.
Yet, they wouldn't be where they are at without him. They wouldn't have beaten Ohio State without him.