BPA or best qb the risks for JS

I don’t see him leaving this tenure without trying to put his own stamp on the team at QB. Which means he needs to make that move sooner rather than later.

In the draft can be risky, but teams do it all the time.

If there is a quarterback they like when the Giants pick, I m pretty confident that will be the choice.

However, trading up, depending on the price, that takes real conviction.

I didn’t realize the hit rate on first round quarterbacks was that low

All other positions are guaranteed hits. It's impossible to draft an offensive lineman top 10 and it not work out, and there has never been a first round receiver who didn't make his team better. So we might as well just never draft a QB

In comment 16312778 GiantGrit said:

Quote:

I don’t see him leaving this tenure without trying to put his own stamp on the team at QB. Which means he needs to make that move sooner rather than later.

JS is a young GM who we will have for a long time imo. People seem to assume his future is tied to Daboll and I don't see that at all. Yes they came in together but that by no means makes them tied at the hip. Point being, be it in 2024 or well after JS will have his shots at QB.

picking a QB in the first round isn't a 100% guarantee to getting a successful player. I'm not going to argue this point.

What I will argue is that with this information, rather than getting scared about using a draft pick, it should make you more willing to move off a guy who seems like a bust and try again with someone else.

They payoff is too high once you get that guy to not stop trying.

to summarize the words of the author...

Here's a list of QBs drafted in round one for the past 10 years. He's how I think they have all done individually...it's not a good ratio of hits to misses. Now here's a list of random guys drafted in other rounds that ended up being pretty good. Thanks for reading.

To get a QB high in the first round ever again because of the risk? Christ, this is dumb.

It's just that when you do it later than the first round, there isn't the spotlight of expectation.

QBs drafted in every round and how successful they have been.

I hear a lot people giving the the - we'll just draft a guy in the middle rounds strategy. I'm curious as what that hit rate would be...

would expect it to increase the possibility of picking QB in the first, but imv, it's largely reliant on where they wind up picking and does he want to burn more assets to trade up. Eg, if NYG is picking 8th, I tend to think he'll stay put and draft BPA. Roster is full of holes, can't be flippant with second round picks.

In comment 16312840 JonC said:

Quote:

would expect it to increase the possibility of picking QB in the first, but imv, it's largely reliant on where they wind up picking and does he want to burn more assets to trade up. Eg, if NYG is picking 8th, I tend to think he'll stay put and draft BPA. Roster is full of holes, can't be flippant with second round picks.

If Giants don’t pick top 5 (which now seems likely) then I agree they should go BPA, because I think the top 3 QB’s will be gone. Would be interesting though if they take a QB in the second round then. A lot of interesting names may fall to the second round like Nix, McCarthy, Penix, Ewers…..

rankings alter as the draft gets closer.

The nit-picking/falling in love part of the offseason (the time between the end of the college season and the draft) hasn't started. It's amazing how much changes between those two dates.

In comment 16312800 Blue The Dog said:

Quote:

All other positions are guaranteed hits. It's impossible to draft an offensive lineman top 10 and it not work out, and there has never been a first round receiver who didn't make his team better. So we might as well just never draft a QB

Haha

In comment 16312800 Blue The Dog said:

Quote:

All other positions are guaranteed hits. It's impossible to draft an offensive lineman top 10 and it not work out, and there has never been a first round receiver who didn't make his team better. So we might as well just never draft a QB

All we ever hear is how you need to use analytics. But when analytics tells you not to picks QB all you guys act like you're experts on QBs. And how the Giants must trade picks and grab a guy.

Must be nice to be wrong year after year and never worry about it

In comment 16312903 LauderdaleMatty said:

Quote:

In comment 16312800 Blue The Dog said: Quote: All other positions are guaranteed hits. It's impossible to draft an offensive lineman top 10 and it not work out, and there has never been a first round receiver who didn't make his team better. So we might as well just never draft a QB All we ever hear is how you need to use analytics. But when analytics tells you not to picks QB all you guys act like you're experts on QBs. And how the Giants must trade picks and grab a guy. Must be nice to be wrong year after year and never worry about it

Do these analytics say anything about the correlation between being a good team and having a great quarterback?

There's a near 100% correlation.

In comment 16312924 LW_Giants said:

Quote:

In comment 16312903 LauderdaleMatty said: Quote: In comment 16312800 Blue The Dog said: Quote: All other positions are guaranteed hits. It's impossible to draft an offensive lineman top 10 and it not work out, and there has never been a first round receiver who didn't make his team better. So we might as well just never draft a QB All we ever hear is how you need to use analytics. But when analytics tells you not to picks QB all you guys act like you're experts on QBs. And how the Giants must trade picks and grab a guy. Must be nice to be wrong year after year and never worry about it Do these analytics say anything about the correlation between being a good team and having a great quarterback?

If you reach for a QB and he only becomes mediocre that is bad(see Jones, D.). If you draft a WR, OT or ER at the same slot and they are NFL average, they are still more valuable than the failed QB. A mediocre QB gets you now where. A average WR/ER/OT is still a player that is useful.

an average OT.

In comment 16312934 section125 said:

Quote:

In comment 16312924 LW_Giants said: Quote: In comment 16312903 LauderdaleMatty said: Quote: In comment 16312800 Blue The Dog said: Quote: All other positions are guaranteed hits. It's impossible to draft an offensive lineman top 10 and it not work out, and there has never been a first round receiver who didn't make his team better. So we might as well just never draft a QB All we ever hear is how you need to use analytics. But when analytics tells you not to picks QB all you guys act like you're experts on QBs. And how the Giants must trade picks and grab a guy. Must be nice to be wrong year after year and never worry about it Do these analytics say anything about the correlation between being a good team and having a great quarterback? If you reach for a QB and he only becomes mediocre that is bad(see Jones, D.). If you draft a WR, OT or ER at the same slot and they are NFL average, they are still more valuable than the failed QB. A mediocre QB gets you now where. A average WR/ER/OT is still a player that is useful.

This is a very fair point. It is also much more likely you can sign an average WR for a reasonable deal vs an average QB.

Still, while an average WR is useful, its not a franchise changer. A QB that hits changes a franchise in a way no other position does. All positions can bust, but only one position can change the trajectory of your team overnight

Obviously, they need a big upgrade at QB. But, the top of the 2024 might not provide it and this is where Schoen's job security factors in. I hope they won't force another QB, and I'm one that immediately hated the Jones pick and can't wait to replace him.

Unfortunately, being reactive and making poor decisions has become proven commonplace for NYG.

In comment 16312939 Blue The Dog said:

Quote:

In comment 16312934 section125 said: Quote: In comment 16312924 LW_Giants said: Quote: In comment 16312903 LauderdaleMatty said: Quote: In comment 16312800 Blue The Dog said: Quote: All other positions are guaranteed hits. It's impossible to draft an offensive lineman top 10 and it not work out, and there has never been a first round receiver who didn't make his team better. So we might as well just never draft a QB All we ever hear is how you need to use analytics. But when analytics tells you not to picks QB all you guys act like you're experts on QBs. And how the Giants must trade picks and grab a guy. Must be nice to be wrong year after year and never worry about it Do these analytics say anything about the correlation between being a good team and having a great quarterback? If you reach for a QB and he only becomes mediocre that is bad(see Jones, D.). If you draft a WR, OT or ER at the same slot and they are NFL average, they are still more valuable than the failed QB. A mediocre QB gets you now where. A average WR/ER/OT is still a player that is useful. This is a very fair point. It is also much more likely you can sign an average WR for a reasonable deal vs an average QB. Still, while an average WR is useful, its not a franchise changer. A QB that hits changes a franchise in a way no other position does. All positions can bust, but only one position can change the trajectory of your team overnight

Exactly. I'm not saying just take a QB for the sake of taking one, but it's hard to deny that a superstar QB is more valuable than a superstar at any other position.

I have said repeatedly that if the Giants don't pick top 5 I'd go BPA and use one of our seconds on a developmental QB because outside of Caleb/Maye/Daniels, I don't think any other QB warrants a first round pick.

We hear a lot about the "top 3" QB prospects.. top 3 according to who? And according to what? College stats?

The only criteria for identifying top QB prospects that Giants fans should be concerned with is the criteria used by the Giants front office. If JS found Allen to be the best pick in 2018 (trading up to get him), then what criteria did he use to evaluate Allen? And do any college QBs now meet those criteria, enough to spend the first pick? Do we want JS to apply those same criteria?

If yes, then the Giants should find a way to get that guy. If not, then the Giants should pass, draft a different highest-rated available player in round 1, and consider a QB in later rounds.

Players that get drafted every year make it?

Terrible premise.

Especially if he likes someone outside the top 3 QB. We need too many assets, so accumulating more picks and picking the QB in the back of the first or in the second might be the way to go. If he loves a guy that’s within reach of our first round slot (maybe Daniels) then pick him or a slight tradeup could work.

It all comes down to who they like and what the value is. They’ll get a QB they like, question is when.Don’t think they’ll be able to wait past round two.

In comment 16313004 gary_from_chester said:

Quote:

Especially if he likes someone outside the top 3 QB. We need too many assets, so accumulating more picks and picking the QB in the back of the first or in the second might be the way to go. If he loves a guy that’s within reach of our first round slot (maybe Daniels) then pick him or a slight tradeup could work. It all comes down to who they like and what the value is. They’ll get a QB they like, question is when.Don’t think they’ll be able to wait past round two.

Agree this is appealing if we're not in the top 5 of draft.

In comment 16312840 JonC said:

Quote:

would expect it to increase the possibility of picking QB in the first, but imv, it's largely reliant on where they wind up picking and does he want to burn more assets to trade up. Eg, if NYG is picking 8th, I tend to think he'll stay put and draft BPA. Roster is full of holes, can't be flippant with second round picks.

All signs point to a late first, second round trade up for a QB. I’d put my money on Bo Nix.

In comment 16313077 GiantGrit said:

Quote:

In comment 16312840 JonC said: Quote: would expect it to increase the possibility of picking QB in the first, but imv, it's largely reliant on where they wind up picking and does he want to burn more assets to trade up. Eg, if NYG is picking 8th, I tend to think he'll stay put and draft BPA. Roster is full of holes, can't be flippant with second round picks. All signs point to a late first, second round trade up for a QB. I’d put my money on Bo Nix.

It seems like many here are lukewarm at best on Bo; I’d be very happy with him as a late first or second rounder. I think he’ll be a good NFL QB.

The pressure on the GM to get it right is enormous. I’m genuinely excited to see how this plays out.

in the NFL per the article, what is the percentage for the non-QBs picked under the same measuring stick?

I would wager it is higher than a 1/3, but so much higher that it would sway a team wanting to upgrade at QB to take a different position player? And if so, when is a team supposed to ever draft a QB...Day 2, Day 3, never? I can assure you the percentages of success don't go up by waiting.

These types of analyses/conclusions not only feel lazy, they are lazy.

how did that work out?

We have too many holes to reach for a qb.

All of the so called top qb in the draft have warts, I don't see a can't miss qb.

Maye is Jones 2.0
Williams is Murray

I actually think Nix or Ewers in round two would be the way to go.

I hope we move up and get one of the top 3.

In comment 16313198 kelly said:

Quote:

how did that work out? We have too many holes to reach for a qb. All of the so called top qb in the draft have warts, I don't see a can't miss qb. Maye is Jones 2.0 Williams is Murray I actually think Nix or Ewers in round two would be the way to go.

You assume one of them will be there in Round 2. I don't know if that is a valid assumption.

I don't care if they draft a qb, trade for one or one falls in their lap so long as they bring in a player for a real competition with Jones. Jones has been the anointed one without competition for far too long.

In comment 16312837 Dnew15 said:

Quote:

QBs drafted in every round and how successful they have been. I hear a lot people giving the the - we'll just draft a guy in the middle rounds strategy. I'm curious as what that hit rate would be...

The miss does not hurt as much .... It is the glass 1/2 empty thought process for 1st rds picks and the opposite in other rouds

To QB. You DONT settle. You go get the guy you want or just keep roster building.