- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
New Window )
@JeffPassan
on Yoshinobu Yamamoto:
"I think Yamamoto wants to get paid. Steve Cohen flew all the way to Japan to see him, private jet all the way to the other side of the world. If he is willing to do that, I think that says a lot about how he feels about Yamamoto. They didn't get Soto, they are not going to get Ohtani...they want Yamamoto pretty badly."
I like reading the part about YY wanting the cash! We have more of that than anyone. Hopefully that’s the deciding factor.
As of now, people involved in the free agency believe that Yamamoto will sign with a team shortly before Christmas.
There are many jobs in baseball that are awesome. This guy's gig is definitely sweet. As is bullpen catcher!
1 “ Says the guy who bats .220 all year and gets little hot finishes .254”
2. I'd love someone to teach some offensive consistency to Lindor too. Throw in some situational hitting lessons too.
3. “Offensive consistency” from Lindor is hilarious
Linked below is the tweet Link - ( New Window )
3 things can be taken by that:
1. Twitter is a cesspool
2. NY fans can be awful
3. People underestimate how difficult hitting a baseball is
Quote:
Have not approached Alonso about an extension this offseason per Tim Britton
Didn't Shecky say otherwise?
It’s all a matter of choice of words lol. They haven’t talked contracts and numbers. But they made a massive push last week to see if they can resign him.
And it’s been nothing but crickets since. Except Stearns concerning comments about not interested in guys that won’t help beyond 2024.
I used to lose at connect four a lot as a kid. But connecting those dots, are at least a bit concerning. Especially with zero other info to go by.
IMO it’s either a massive bluff being played. Or they really do think they are better off moving a year early rather than a year or two late. And I’ve been open about that since mid summer, that’s how they seemed to lean. Was hoping Stearns changed that.
I’m 100% walking blind here, with only one piece of info in the past ten days.
Quote:
Mets flew over Hiro Fujiwara (Senga’s translator) to meet with Yamamoto.. that guy has a pretty sweet job doesn’t he?
There are many jobs in baseball that are awesome. This guy's gig is definitely sweet. As is bullpen catcher!
The Mets have had the same bullpen catcher for 24 years (Dave Racaniello). His dad knew Bobby V and introduced the 2 at a game. The Mets regular bullpen catcher couldn’t get to the game and Valentine had heard Racaniello caught in community college. The rest is history… 24! Years later
Yeah, I had it about $60 million a year. So 10 years, $600 million sounds about right.
If he is back pitching, the bulk of his career and healthy, that's a bargain. A couple years ago, I saw comparisons to where he was about Scherzer on the mound and Stanton (pre-falling off the face of the earth) at bat.
Problem is he is just a DH this year. Very risky contract obviously
1 “ Says the guy who bats .220 all year and gets little hot finishes .254”
2. I'd love someone to teach some offensive consistency to Lindor too. Throw in some situational hitting lessons too.
3. “Offensive consistency” from Lindor is hilarious
Linked below is the tweet Link - ( New Window )
I see, twitter, like most social media sites is a cesspool, not advising you on on anything, but I don't use it as a barometer of reality. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope not.
Im hoping he's closer to '22 Lopez and last year was just a tough year, though '22 does look like a statistical aberration. For $2 million it's worth a shot
didnt remember that either good stuff kd. really rooting for lopez to get back to that first half '22 form.
Miami Marlins: Jorge Lopez's source of motivation — his son - ( New Window )
Austin Adams is one to watch , Andre Scrubb impressed scouts this winter. Wouldn’t bet on any of them but also potentially some BP depth there
same as met fans said beltran was overrated a lot of the time he was here.
and probably not so much different from thinking alonso is overrated.
there will be yankee fans who call soto overrated too.
ny tends to attract more fans with unreasonable expectations. or maybe not more than any other place but more willing to be more vocal about it.
same as met fans said beltran was overrated a lot of the time he was here.
and probably not so much different from thinking alonso is overrated.
there will be yankee fans who call soto overrated too.
ny tends to attract more fans with unreasonable expectations. or maybe not more than any other place but more willing to be more vocal about it.
Yep. I can't believe some of the crap Yankee fans are saying about Soto. A lot of them get it, but there is a big enough contingent that is on the "we gave up too many players for a rental that hit .260" kick. (And as you stated, Mets fans can be the same)
Soto just turned 25, less than a year older than when Judge made his MLB debut. About five full seasons. 160 HR, more BB than K, lifetime .946 OPS, 28.6 career WAR, HOF trajectory. And the Yankees get him with the headliner being a Lugo type.
Quote:
Under the tweet from SNY about Lindor working out with Vientos
1 “ Says the guy who bats .220 all year and gets little hot finishes .254”
2. I'd love someone to teach some offensive consistency to Lindor too. Throw in some situational hitting lessons too.
3. “Offensive consistency” from Lindor is hilarious
Linked below is the tweet Link - ( New Window )
3 things can be taken by that:
1. Twitter is a cesspool
2. NY fans can be awful
3. People underestimate how difficult hitting a baseball is
All of the above. I remember when some Mets fans booed Piazza, after we traded for him, but before we signed him long term. I was afraid he would say screw this place and sign elsewhere.
Pitching WAR is kind of funny, but Seaver was 35 before he had an fWAR as low as Alonso's highest fWAR (or close to it).
Completely different stratospheres as players.
Chris Davis is my comp for Alonso and Davis' best year is 3+ fWAR BETTER than Alonso's best and Davis fell of a f-ing cliff and his contract became an albatross.
Do I expect that drastic change from Alonso? no, but he's also not worth the risk and I do not see him aging well and trading him would certainly not be anything close to trading Seaver.
Teams do not need an Alonso to win - it's one of the biggest fallacies in baseball.
Quote:
every season since he's been here.
same as met fans said beltran was overrated a lot of the time he was here.
and probably not so much different from thinking alonso is overrated.
there will be yankee fans who call soto overrated too.
ny tends to attract more fans with unreasonable expectations. or maybe not more than any other place but more willing to be more vocal about it.
Yep. I can't believe some of the crap Yankee fans are saying about Soto. A lot of them get it, but there is a big enough contingent that is on the "we gave up too many players for a rental that hit .260" kick. (And as you stated, Mets fans can be the same)
Soto just turned 25, less than a year older than when Judge made his MLB debut. About five full seasons. 160 HR, more BB than K, lifetime .946 OPS, 28.6 career WAR, HOF trajectory. And the Yankees get him with the headliner being a Lugo type.
yep. just 2 years of a lugo type also. the weak return reading on that deal is:
2 years of a lugo-ish pitcher (just 1 extra year beyond soto)
a low velo 23 year old AA SP who got picked 10 picks after Tidwell (and smaller bonus)
a backup catcher not far off nido, except 5 yrs older
a couple mlb arms thrown in like drew smith/megill
if i were mets i think id have tried hard to beat that. whether or not yankees would have paid more or not idk but at minimum id have tried to drive that price up.
i find it really hard to believe 2 years of king is more valuable around the league than 6 of mauricio or 5 of baty.
I live outside of Philly.. coach baseball for 7-8 year olds. I ask these kids "who is your favorite player?".
I get 3 answers:
1) I don't know
2) Bryce Harper
3) Polar Bear
Popularity is NOT a reason to keep a player...but it does make it harder to trade him from a PR standpoint.
Trade him and win? No problem... If the Mets won the World Series in 1978, people would have forgiven it..
Trade him and lose? Seats will be emptier than with him.
Of course, if they don't believe in his on field performance being an asset to the team, then they should trade him regardless of the above... it's just a real, added complication when a player is so popular
Pitching WAR is kind of funny, but Seaver was 35 before he had an fWAR as low as Alonso's highest fWAR (or close to it).
Completely different stratospheres as players.
Chris Davis is my comp for Alonso and Davis' best year is 3+ fWAR BETTER than Alonso's best and Davis fell of a f-ing cliff and his contract became an albatross.
Do I expect that drastic change from Alonso? no, but he's also not worth the risk and I do not see him aging well and trading him would certainly not be anything close to trading Seaver.
Teams do not need an Alonso to win - it's one of the biggest fallacies in baseball.
Alonso has done a good job with hitting bad pitching (of which there is a lot of now in baseball though).
I think he's also ingratiated a fanbase emotionally that has had little to root for since 2016-2017 based on his personality and character.
But I'm not a fan of paying player like this on long term contract either. He's going to be a DH very very soon and doesn't hit for average or provide good OBP. This is not a player you sign for beyond a 4-5 yr deal. Maybe a 3 yr deal and control the annual cost on year to year deals.
As such, his contract shouldn't be exorbinant, no matter the demands (Matt Olson signed for 8 years, $168 million; $21 million a year.) Additionally, the value Alonso would return in a trade is not going to be that much. Would they even get a prospect the caliber of an L. Acuna or a Gilbert? I doubt it.
Therefore, power hitting 1B like Alonso are so undervalued these days that IMO, the Mets are better off keeping him. I liken it to Barkley. In football, RBs have become so undervalued that what the Giants would likely get in trade for him isn't worth it. They get a 4th rounder? Where they selected Eric Gray last year? The cap doesn't kill them, and he adds a lot to the team. I don't see the point in trading Barkley, and I don't see the point in trading Alonso.
And that is not even getting into the marketability of those two players.
Pitching WAR is kind of funny, but Seaver was 35 before he had an fWAR as low as Alonso's highest fWAR (or close to it).
Completely different stratospheres as players.
Chris Davis is my comp for Alonso and Davis' best year is 3+ fWAR BETTER than Alonso's best and Davis fell of a f-ing cliff and his contract became an albatross.
Do I expect that drastic change from Alonso? no, but he's also not worth the risk and I do not see him aging well and trading him would certainly not be anything close to trading Seaver.
Teams do not need an Alonso to win - it's one of the biggest fallacies in baseball.
we dont need to get side tracked on it but chris davis is a terrible comp for alonso, which is likely why you would think others overrate him.
alonso's career didn't start with 4 years, 300 games, and 1000 at bats as a negative war player.
in his first 5 full seasons through age 28 Pete is worth 14.5 war.
in his first 7 full seasons through age 28 Davis was worth 8 fwar.
pete has never posted 30%+ k-rates, which got worse over time not better. he has never seen his batting average and walk rates fluctuate by almost double year to year.
chris davis was a 1 hit wonder a lot closer to lucas duda than pete alonso. except duda may have actually been the more consistent player. davis' 30% k-rate was always 1 small step backwards away from being joey gallo, and at age 31 he took that step.
pete on the other had has been the most consistent run producer the mets have had since piazza and unlike piazza he can play every day. positional value aside his 133 career rc is the closest of any met to piazza's 140 (beltran and lindor both exactly 118).
he is the clean up hitter mets fans said they always wanted and never had, except i guess until we have him.
I'd take a Keith Hernandez or Jon Olrerud at 1B and Alvarez batting clean up 100 times out of 100 if I had the choice.
history is littered with teams who won World Series without a player hitting 30 or 40 HR's - look at the 90's Yankees and 2010's SF Giants.
did those fans whine about not having a cleanup hitter hit 40 HR's, playing medicore defense?
fWAR is a stat people use to compare players, until someone wants to cherry pick stats to not use it (David vs Alonso).
I'd take a Keith Hernandez or Jon Olrerud at 1B and Alvarez batting clean up 100 times out of 100 if I had the choice.
history is littered with teams who won World Series without a player hitting 30 or 40 HR's - look at the 90's Yankees and 2010's SF Giants.
did those fans whine about not having a cleanup hitter hit 40 HR's, playing medicore defense?
fWAR is a stat people use to compare players, until someone wants to cherry pick stats to not use it (David vs Alonso).
i assume david = davis?
how did i cherry pick not using fwar when i literally posted how alonso has produced almost twice as much value through their same age 28 seasons even though davis had 2 extra seasons in bigs?
in his first full 5 seasons through age 28 Pete is worth 14.5 war.
in his first full 7 seasons through age 28 Davis was worth 8 fwar.
(i removed the word "full" from my initial post bc davis had some partial seasons and alonso had the short covid year)
davis' rc through that age 28 season, which included his best career a27 year, was 115.
if alonso (133 carrer rc) is another davis , so is
matt olsen (135 career rc, grades worse defensively than alonso),
and vlad jr (130 career rc, worse defensively than alsono),
and devers (123 career rc, will probably grade worse defensively at 1b whenever he makes the switch, unless they go straight to DH like alvarez, he's won a ring right?).
lucas duda is a closer comparison to davis than alonso and even he put up a higher rc over his career (116) than davis (105). also more seasons over 100 rc (6x). his 10 year career added up to 6.5 fwar in about 500 (1/3) fewer games than davis so they were about equal in terms of productivity by rate (davis more productive on d, duda more productive w/ bat).
whether or not alonso will be worth whatever $ he ends up getting is impossible to predict until we know what he's getting but comparisons to chris davis are as off target as comparing him to duda would be.
@Mets
·
1m
We have signed outfielder Taylor Kohlwey to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Padres' Taylor Kohlwey: Promoted to majors - ( New Window )
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
4m
Sources involved in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes tell me that an aspect of finality has been felt in recent hours and days. Feels like we are finally coming up on the big decision, and it’s only a matter of time until we find out where he may be headed.
i know there have been boring WM before (maybe we need a thread change) and rosenthal has been grinding an axe, but this is still pretty staggering:
Here’s a fun little fact that speaks to the slow pace of the offseason: Candelario, catcher Victor Caratini, infielder Joey Wendle, and shortstop Paul DeJong are the only free-agent position players thus far to change teams (Jason Heyward re-signed with the Dodgers).
Though Shohei Ohtani’s lingering free agency certainly is holding up some transactions, some in the industry cite other factors for the lack of signings. The weak class of position players is one. The staggered postings of Asian players is another.
had the mets made their michael cuddyer signing this year, i think his same contract in 2014 dollars would be more than the entire position player market of position changers has gotten combined.
Rosenthal: What I’m hearing about Rangers’ pitching plans, Jorge Soler and more - ( New Window )
McIIwain is 26, Kohlway 29
McIIwain is 26, Kohlway 29
he sounds like SD's version of JT schwartz (in about 5 years after he's been stuck in AAA for a while hitting for contact but not much power).
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
4m
Mets have signed OF/1B Taylor Kohlwey to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp.
The 29-year-old is a career .296/.387/.444 hitter in Triple-A and went 2-for-13 in his big league debut this year.
We've moved on from scotch tape to duct tape. Sadly, a huge jump in org philosophy 😂
im encouraged by the seemingly increased organizational focus on low-k rates so far w/ stearns.
low k approach is i think the best foundation to start w/ because if something clicks on top you end up with a useful batter whether it's league average power or contact (or defense like guillorme).
Didn't even include Rudick and Jordan
Quote:
18th in the PCL in wRC+ in this *3rd* season there. Nothing wrong with organizational players but if Schwartz doesn't develop anymore, this is exactly the career he's looking at.
im encouraged by the seemingly increased organizational focus on low-k rates so far w/ stearns.
low k approach is i think the best foundation to start w/ because if something clicks on top you end up with a useful batter whether it's league average power or contact (or defense like guillorme).
To be clear, I'm not knocking the guy, there is ZERO downside to adding guys like this, hopefully no more Abraham Almonte types getting actual PT... though I'm sure we'll see that again lol I'm obviously more hopeful JT Schwartz at not yet 25 figures out how to hit for more power than a 29 year old but hey... Jose Bautista lol
and yeah totally hear you, all these fringe guys are unlikely to ever turn into much. bautista is prob a unicorn but if you can find a max muncy (or gulp, justin turner) out of nowhere that's a big add even for a team with a major payroll, not just in the cheap years but getting reasonable years extended early.
i thought that was the type of trend they saw in naquin/vogelbach/ruf except they were wrong on all 3.
i guess a silver lining would be him staying in the AL but if the dodgers miss on this they are going scorched earth somewhere.
I'd take a Keith Hernandez or Jon Olrerud at 1B and Alvarez batting clean up 100 times out of 100 if I had the choice.
history is littered with teams who won World Series without a player hitting 30 or 40 HR's - look at the 90's Yankees and 2010's SF Giants.
did those fans whine about not having a cleanup hitter hit 40 HR's, playing medicore defense?
fWAR is a stat people use to compare players, until someone wants to cherry pick stats to not use it (David vs Alonso).
Wait just want to come back to this...
I think ANYONE would take Keith Hernandez or John Olerud over Pete..
Just because Brandon Nimmo isn't as good as Carlos Beltran doesn't mean he wasn't a big signing.
Nimmo had an OPS higher than Alonso in 2023. In fact Nimmo had higher stats in just about every offensive category than Alonso except ISO. You could make a case Alonso was unlucky in 2023 but I'm not sure that explains it all.
My point about Alonso, who seems like a great guy and a good player, is I think money on his is better spent in more impactful ways - long term because a: I don't see his type of player aging well and b: teams do not need a player who prototypes like Alonso to win championships.
If Nimmo replaced Alonso as cleanup hitter would people have complained? Maybe, but they wouldn't be justified unless all they care about is HRs.
I would not give Alonso away and I don't think he's awful, I just would not extend him unless it was very team friendly and I think the time to trade him is now.
the defese/99 infield thing gives me a little pause but in terms of that being special, it was a 1 year thing. i view alonso pretty neutral defensively. by drs he was actually +6 last year (4th of 16 qualifiers) and by OAA he was neutral 0 (7th out of 16 qualifiers).
net-net piazza is a hof'er having little to do with his defense, olerud isn't. if pete has another 5-6 prime seasons he too will probably be hall of fame bound. he's almost at 200 homers in less than 5 full seasons so he's got a real shot at 500 homers.
Nimmo had an OPS higher than Alonso in 2023. In fact Nimmo had higher stats in just about every offensive category than Alonso except ISO. You could make a case Alonso was unlucky in 2023 but I'm not sure that explains it all.
My point about Alonso, who seems like a great guy and a good player, is I think money on his is better spent in more impactful ways - long term because a: I don't see his type of player aging well and b: teams do not need a player who prototypes like Alonso to win championships.
If Nimmo replaced Alonso as cleanup hitter would people have complained? Maybe, but they wouldn't be justified unless all they care about is HRs.
I would not give Alonso away and I don't think he's awful, I just would not extend him unless it was very team friendly and I think the time to trade him is now.
that's all perfectly reasonable but doesnt make chris davis a realistic comp.
like many stats in baseball OPS is a combination of different stats. not all of them are exactly equal. what alonso does from a run production standpoint, not to mention the fact that he is very often good in the clutch, are things that weight higher for me than the fact that nimmo is great at walking more (and had a lot more singles fall in last year, which over their careers was an outlier for whatever reason since they have comparable ba's).
if i had to choose only 1 stat, total XBH is probably the most important stat in ranking the best hitters in baseball. alonso was highest met last year and 15th in mlb with 69 XBH. pretty sure he's been highest met all 5 years he's been in big leagues.
notice the trend with last year's top 10:
1. 90 nl mvp 3rd place freeman - 1st place lad
2. 84 nl mvp 4th place matt olson - 1st place atl
3. 80 nl mvp ronald acuna - 1st place atl
4. 80 nl mvp runner up mookie betts - 1st place lad
5. 78 al mvp shohei ohtani
6. 75 luis robert (12th place)
7. 75 al mvp runner up corey seager
8. 73 al mvp 3rd place marcus semien
9. 72 nl mvp 7th place austin riley
10. 71 al mvp 4th place julio rodriguez
8/10 were top 5 of mvp voting.
alonso has had 67+ xbh every full season, and his rookie year he had 85. so his ceiling is already an MVP level player.
i have no issue moving on from him if the price gets out of whack and the $ is genuinely better spent elsewhere, but to make that judgement we need to be clear eyed about how difficult and expensive it is to get anyone better than him. there are only about 20 guys in mlb who fit that description and a bunch of them are already signed.
All to the point of I'm not interested in extending Alonso long term unless it's very team friendly.
One of the hardest things to do in sports, any sport, is to pay someone based on what you expect them to do in the future, and not for what they have done in the past and it's almost impossible in some ways, analytics helps in others, but it's not perfect and Alonso is not a guy I would roll the dice on being consistent or even better improving as he ages.