- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
New Window )
They are claiming this was a false alarm
Verified
@TBTimes_Rays
#Rays get OF Jake Magnum from #Marlins as the PTNBL to complete 11/17 trade of Brujan and Faucher
Then it would be an Imananga/Severino/Giolito type offseason. That would certainly be underwhelming, unless there is some trade up the sleeve.
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Healey says he does *not* expect the Mets go to big on Montgomery or Snell if they miss out on Yamamoto. Seems like Yamamoto is a special case here.
Then it would be an Imananga/Severino/Giolito type offseason. That would certainly be underwhelming, unless there is some trade up the sleeve.
steamer (zips for intl):
yamamoto 3.7 fwar
snell 3.2 fwar
montgomery 3.2 fwar
imanaga 3.1 fwar (other than yamamoto he's probably the guy they've been most tied to)
giolito 2.3 fwar
lugo is next on the list at 2.2 fwar.
corbin burnes is 3.8 and would probably cost less than any 3+ SP with years of control. bieber is 3.0.
they need to fill innings and they have unlimited money. yamamoto clearly the top choice but with or without him they have other choices. once he decides we'll see how their priorities below him flow.
they know they need to fill ~400 innings. if they dont sign one of these guys multi-year they know they will be right back in market again next year for even more than that 400 innings since severino and quintana both expire.
All to the point of I'm not interested in extending Alonso long term unless it's very team friendly.
One of the hardest things to do in sports, any sport, is to pay someone based on what you expect them to do in the future, and not for what they have done in the past and it's almost impossible in some ways, analytics helps in others, but it's not perfect and Alonso is not a guy I would roll the dice on being consistent or even better improving as he ages.
I think you are mischaracterizing him as a power hitter more than the fact that he is a good all around hitter. Also his defense as worse than it is.
for his career Alonso strikes out less and has a higher batting average than Matt Olson (they are very comparable). Olson grades worse defensively. Braves extended him through age 35 + club option on age 36. The right move would have been extending Alonso on a similar or slightly better contract the day after Olsen signed his 8x168m deal because it looked team friendly from day 1. That was obvious and that was pre-Boras so why it didnt happen who knows.
if he hits free agency he will be very comparable to Mark Texeira who hit FA at the same age (29) with a very similar profile across the board. and who ended up producing about 18 wins above replacement over 8 seasons with NYY. was mvp runner up once and got votes 4x. won 1 WS.
i dont think he is a must sign, especially if they somehow end up with Soto or if Vientos breaks out, but i dont think you are getting very good trade value for him as a 21m rental so the likeliest path is playing it out at least until trade deadline when you can make a more informed decision.
alonso has 2 top 10's (7th in 2019 and 8th in 2022) and 3x all star.
alonso has 2 top 10's (7th in 2019 and 8th in 2022) and 3x all star.
Teixiera was coming off a 6.9fWAR season when the Yankees signed him, and produced 13fWAR in the first 3 years of the deal (Alonso's 3 best seasons to date haven't equaled 13 fWAR).
If Alonso puts up a 6.9 fWAR season then I'll change my tune in October next year and pony up to re-sign Alonso.
Santos
"Summation: Potential solid organizational starter. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down depth arm. Low ceiling. Potential for two average secondary pitches, but lack of fastball potential limits ceiling. Has solid feel for pitching and an advanced command profile. Will throw strikes, but lacks put-away stuff against minor league bats and will struggle even more against more advanced hitters.
Robertson
"Summation: Projects as solid up-and-down bullpen arm due to intriguing three-pitch mix. Has potential to work himelf into a high-leverage role if he can refine the command of his secondaries. Well liked among his teammates.
I get holding onto prospects but 100 would have done something like this
fresh evidence they are shifting more towards low-krate types.
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in his 6 years he had been worth a total of about 25 fwar and he had 1 top 10 MVP finish (7th in 2005). only a 1x all star.
alonso has 2 top 10's (7th in 2019 and 8th in 2022) and 3x all star.
Teixiera was coming off a 6.9fWAR season when the Yankees signed him, and produced 13fWAR in the first 3 years of the deal (Alonso's 3 best seasons to date haven't equaled 13 fWAR).
If Alonso puts up a 6.9 fWAR season then I'll change my tune in October next year and pony up to re-sign Alonso.
which is the path they seem most likely to take - see how he performs and what the offers are, then decide to keep or not based on the price. if he has a 5 win season next year, his 3 best years will add up to 13.2 fwar. his 4.4 win year as a rookie is his current high, i think part of that was he hit 2nd and had the best hitter of his time here behind him (conforto had a 33hr/92 rbi season hitting most 3rd/4th). i guess it remains to be seen if they upgrade that.
the only reason worth diverging is if someone offers something so good you cant pass it up and but i havent seen any assets like that change teams on the trade market even w/ soto.
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. Officially jealous. Boston gave up very very little for O’Neill. 100% would have given up a similar package
fresh evidence they are shifting more towards low-krate types.
Taylor struck out 34% of his Ab's in 2023, 30% career
“I’ve heard the Rays are looking for a catcher. I can definitely say they were in on Victor Caratini.”
“I’ve heard the Rays are looking for a catcher. I can definitely say they were in on Victor Caratini.”
that's interesting...maybe even nido if they are looking to save more $ in a swap, am i crazy or were there "tampa likes nido" rumors at some point a year or two ago?
@JeffPassan
·
1m
The Atlanta Braves are acquiring infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels for first baseman Evan White and right-handed reliever Tyler Thomas, sources tell ESPN.
Mike Daddino
@mike_daddino
The Texas Rangers are unlikely to bring back Jordan Montgomery due to the financial uncertainty of losing a local TV deal, per Ken Rosenthal
Reports say Yankees have shown interest in a reunion.
Mike Daddino
@mike_daddino
The Texas Rangers are unlikely to bring back Jordan Montgomery due to the financial uncertainty of losing a local TV deal, per Ken Rosenthal
Reports say Yankees have shown interest in a reunion.
maybe an interesting way of looking at this or maybe not:
2024 steamer/zips proj.
yamamoto 3.7 fwar 171 innings (zips)
snell 3.3 fwar 174 innings
montgomery 3.2 fwar 188 innings
imanaga 3.1 fwar 138 innings (zips)
giolito 2.3 fwar 164 innings
scherzer 3.1 fwar 174 innings
verlander 2.6 fwar 178 innings
even kicking in $, mets saved ~$23m per pitcher at the deadline (46m total).
re-investing that $46m + another $10m or so should get them 2 younger pitchers, with more years of control, projected to give them about what ms/jv would have along with gilbert/acuna/clifford.
obviously there are preferable combinations (starting with yamamoto) but i'd be generally ok as long as they add any 2 of those sp. severino is projected at 1.6 fwar in 141 innings.
Brantley 11% (likely a DH at this point)
Margot 17% (would be a trade, steamer projects 1 fwar)
Gurriel 19% (17% last 2 years)
Keirmeir 22%
Bellinger 22%
Joc 23%
Pham 24%
Bader 24% (he's been sub-20% last 2 years)
Soler 26%
Teoscar 30%
Taylor 30%
margot, gurriel, bader seem like 3 best fits (also 3 youngest on list).
not sure if it was legit or a fluke but if gurriel is really a + defender in LF (+17 drs combined last 2 years) he's my pick - especially if you can get him on an inflated pillow deal.
this may be a misread but i think they appear to be aiming for younger pitchers. fedde 30 years old, lopez 30 years old, severino 29.
martino said this a few days ago:
Mets would pursue frontline starter if they miss out on top target Yoshinobu Yamamoto - ( New Window )
the ball really jumps off his bat different than even alonso/vientos.
https://x.com/SNY_Mets/status/1733313899460518220?s=20 - ( New Window )
this is just a first impression but i think stearns seems less aggressive and more patient than eppler was. perhaps even more patient than they were in 2020 when they sprung early for mccann.
yamamoto is his priority and it seems clear he's not acting all that aggressive on anything beyond 1-2 years ahead of that.
the severino, lopez, and potential fedde prices can be viewed as somewhat aggressive relative to projections, lopez wasnt even projected to get a major league deal by fg, so my conclusion from that is the guys he was willing to be aggressive about were the youger upside depth plays (as opposed to a safer play like lugo, whose only big difference is age).
if they miss on yamamoto i suspect we will see heightened aggressiveness on their plan b, c, etc as martino reports. i think a montgomery and imanaga combo is probably a plan b they'd be aggressive for.
“ Today’s false reporting about Shohei Ohtani’s big decision was a disgrace.
Amazing how many mistakes are made when an agent isn’t spoon-feeding info.
Journalists: If you want to speculate wildly with zero consequences, become a professional gasbag (the gig pays pretty well).”
Just one example
I wonder if there’s some kind of accommodation they can make. Presumably he sees the kind of payday Yamamoto is about to hit and doesn’t want to get hurt and miss it.
His team may feel similarly if there’s a way they can get paid now, though probably not the type of precedent the league wants (if there even was a way around the rules in first place).
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Sasaki has asked to be posted. His team (the Marines) have already rejected this request. Until he’s 25 they would not receive a posting fee (well they would, but max out at about 600K)
I wonder if there’s some kind of accommodation they can make. Presumably he sees the kind of payday Yamamoto is about to hit and doesn’t want to get hurt and miss it.
His team may feel similarly if there’s a way they can get paid now, though probably not the type of precedent the league wants (if there even was a way around the rules in first place).
There is none. Its iron clad. In fact, there are some teams who have never once granted a posting request. Not only that, even if posted, it’s 3 weeks before teams officially sign their class of 2024 aka most teams have little money remaining. And before people ask, he can’t just “retire”. Nomo tried this and they closed that loophole.
“ The SoftBank Hawks have never posted a player, have said they never will”
@martinonyc
It never got serious between Mets and Ohtani. It would have if the team had any indication Ohtani would come to NY, but they never did. Now both Yankees and Mets are pleased to be less worried on LAD on Yamamoto.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
400 million for a guy who has never pitched in MLB would be pure insanity. Mets can have him at that price
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
Ohtani comp in history is Babe Ruth. No one else has been the pitcher and hitter that he has, and Ruth stopped pitching.
$70 million is nuts considering the injury risk with Ohtani pitching. That becomes an awfully expensive DH. And I would assume if he can't pitch, he won't be playing the OF.
Agreed that it's hard to single out Cohen anymore. Besides this crazy deal, you've talked about the Yankees with Cole, Stanton, Rodon, Judge, and now Soto if they extend him.
Yamamoto really is a unicorn of his own sort too. He should be a legitimate MLB ace. How often does a 25 year old ace become available in free agency? There may be someone, but I can't think of one. Usually pitchers aren't even in their arbitration years at that age. I had his contract at 10 years, $300 million, but I agree it could get quite a bit higher than that
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another way - it gives cohen a lot of air cover to literally spend whatever he wants on a yamamoto deal.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
400 million for a guy who has never pitched in MLB would be pure insanity. Mets can have him at that price
i dont disagree, but 700m is insanity for a 30 year old ohtani too.
i think insanity may be here to stay for a minute.
cohen was willing to pay verlander and scherzer 43m per year. he saved $46m next year trading them.
if they think yamamoto is a 10 year ace at age 25, rationalizing 10 years @40m per isn't that hard.
if blue jays and sfg are indeed in on yamamoto, and both have $500m+ laying around that ohtani didnt take, plus mets/yankees/sox...after this deal, i think id bet the winning bid starts with a "4".
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another way - it gives cohen a lot of air cover to literally spend whatever he wants on a yamamoto deal.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
Ohtani comp in history is Babe Ruth. No one else has been the pitcher and hitter that he has, and Ruth stopped pitching.
$70 million is nuts considering the injury risk with Ohtani pitching. That becomes an awfully expensive DH. And I would assume if he can't pitch, he won't be playing the OF.
Agreed that it's hard to single out Cohen anymore. Besides this crazy deal, you've talked about the Yankees with Cole, Stanton, Rodon, Judge, and now Soto if they extend him.
Yamamoto really is a unicorn of his own sort too. He should be a legitimate MLB ace. How often does a 25 year old ace become available in free agency? There may be someone, but I can't think of one. Usually pitchers aren't even in their arbitration years at that age. I had his contract at 10 years, $300 million, but I agree it could get quite a bit higher than that
ohtani has the TJS though. so i agree, babe ruth, but we are looking at his age 30/31 the next time he's on the mound and some possibility he doesnt make it all the way back as a pitcher.
i think yamamoto's age makes him enough of a unicorn that his contract ends up equally ridiculous.
if you are willing to do 10x30m, which i think a lot of teams may be willing to do, is 12x35m that much farther? that's $420m and still less than a few of the teams involved were already offering ohtani.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
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but im pretty sure this contract may have just made yamamoto a met on what will be the biggest guarantee ever to a pitcher by a good margin factoring in the posting fee.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
Me too, but committing too much for too long could be a big mistake.
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but im pretty sure this contract may have just made yamamoto a met on what will be the biggest guarantee ever to a pitcher by a good margin factoring in the posting fee.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
the stakes have certainly ratcheted up to 'man's game/man's price' level.
with the benefit of hindsight lad losing on scherzer was probably more that they passed their comfort zone a guy who blew up in the postseason and were looking a year out to reset their lux tax with an eye on soto/ohtani.
it all depends on how the mets view yamamoto though. the reigning NL CY is out there and i still think him at a $150m+ discount (that could easily pay for montogmery or imanaga) is a choice many teams would make purely on the value of the total investment.
but if they truly view yamamoto as a 25 year old unicorn we just learned what unicorn prices may be. the LAD still have less on their books this year than the mets. these couple weeks before holidays going to be interesting.
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In comment 16317127 Eric on Li said:
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but im pretty sure this contract may have just made yamamoto a met on what will be the biggest guarantee ever to a pitcher by a good margin factoring in the posting fee.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
Me too, but committing too much for too long could be a big mistake.
Sure... But it not the type of mistake like we had in Wilpon days where we would lose a Reyes and A Wheeler because we couldn't spend... Cohen isn't gonna let talent like that walk for reasonable deals like the Wilpons did no matter what bad contracts are sitting on the books
@JonHeyman
·
5m
Yes, the Dodgers are still interested in and can still afford Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Uncertain though, how the Ohtani signing may affect their chances, pro or con. The three perceived favorites: 1. Mets 2. Yankees 3. Dodgers
the penalty for signing another QO free agent (snell, hader) is just another $500k intl and their 3rd highest draft pick.
clearly they have been planning this out so i assume their intl class is already strategically protected.
with both hader/snell having been in southern california i think id expect to see 1 of them end in LA. especially if they decide to pay up for yamamoto.
the way the mets have played things, it seems like they have set themselves up to pay a unicorn price that the NYY cant pay after Soto and LAD may be hesitant to pay after Ohtani.
2022 offseason, mets make scherzer highest aav pitcher ever by 8m
2023 offseason, mets match scherzer deal with jvv becoming 2nd pitcher with 43m aav
given the way the mets evaluation would seem to dictate being all in on yamamoto despite some quality alternatives, i think we are going to see another eye popping contract.
$40mx10 years would be less per year and running through a few years younger than max/jv ages when they signed.
$37mx11 years is just 2 years longer and 1m more per year than the deal cole signed ahead of his age 29 4 years ago.
if you believe yamamoto is on that level, and made more valuable by the age, i think those are justifiable deals even before factoring any deferrals or gimmicks to minimize tax penalties.
maybe his market has been overstated or maybe stearns has more discipline than eppler, but after the ohtani deal and the immediate rush to imply cohen may have spent that if ohtani was interested in ny im doubting that.
To add, the guy who reported it apologized ala Morosi. Said he got bad info