- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
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Where I'm going with this question is what other teams have shown success with this transition for Japanese pitchers?
I would think that should play a part in the decision making.
Recent history suggests the transition from the NPB to MLB is not as huge as people want to believe. Here are the current MLB P from the NPB
Darvish (old now, was an ace)
Maeda, finished 3rd in ROY, finished 2nd in AL Cy in 2020 65-49 3.74 FIP, was never an "ace" in Japan
Senga
Ohtani
Kikuchi (mediocre, only got 56 million guaranteed from the Mariners, still made the all-star team in 2021 and 2.6 fWAR this season with Toronto
Dice K debuted with the Red Sox, in 2007!
Even beyond pitchers, Seiya Suzuki is an above average regular for the Cubs and Kim is quietly a borderline star for SD.
Where I'm going with this question is what other teams have shown success with this transition for Japanese pitchers?
I would think that should play a part in the decision making.
the mets kept senga to 6 days often. i think the pitch counts in japan are actually higher than mlb (i think yamamoto threw like 130 pitches in his final start there?) - but i agree with you, the mets recent success with the transition is something that i think is meaningful.
the dodgers brought over maeda in 2016 and he had a good rookie year. that's probably the most recent relevant example from the main competitors, though the blue jays have kikuchi in their rotation and he's gone through it so he'd probably have some similar advice as senga. he struggled his first few years (in seattle) but made the all star game his final year there before toronto.
money is usually the main factor and im not sure ive heard anything that makes me think that will be different here. also since the total amount he gets directly relates to the posting fee and what his previous team receives, it possibly creates more of a direct focus than others. i would imagine that NPB teams agree to postings with some kind of direct acknowledgement of wanting to get the maximum compensation.
of all the recent met pursuits this one reminds me most of Sherzer - who was rumored for a long time to be less likely than yamamoto has been to want to go to NY but was also in a situation where he very much wanted to push the $P market forward as much as he could. cohen closed that one w/ record $ and i think that would be my guess here too.
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
Sources: As the Mets continue to monitor the starting pitching market, they have shown interest in former Met Seth Lugo.
Lugo had a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts for the Padres this season.
@mikemayer22
Sources: As the Mets continue to monitor the starting pitching market, they have shown interest in former Met Seth Lugo.
Lugo had a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts for the Padres this season.
securing quality depth throughout every slot of the BP is imo just as big of a need as getting an "ace". maybe a bigger one.
So yeah, Lugo is going to be starting with his next team 100%
He thought he had it in hand in the spring of 2017 after a breakout in the World Baseball Classic — he beat Venezuela and the U.S before starting Puerto Rico’s loss in the championship — but Lugo was stunned to learn he was still competing for a job when he rejoined Mets camp.
So he pushed even more. Then his elbow gave out. It was the last time he’d had a chance to ramp up for a rotation spot from the beginning to the end of spring training.
“I’ve always wanted to start,” Lugo said. “I feel like the last few years and in the offseason, having the chance to start and then right before spring training or during spring training there’s a change of plans. It was pretty frustrating. So coming in camp as a starter and all the way through camp as a starter, it’s been nice.”
So yeah, Lugo is going to be starting with his next team 100%
as long as he pitches like he did last year he will be a starter anywhere. at 34 and having only done it that 1 year it's a legitimate risk that he wont continue that way for the entire life of his next contract.
also had the pads had gotten to the postseason last year, do you think lugo was starting a playoff game over Yu, Snell, Musgrove, or Wacha?
you sign him with a guaranteed spot in the rotation to start knowing he has the flex and you may use it, not that it's a certainty - especially when the rotation trims in postseason.
yes and that is my entire point. in 2022 when the mets were making their postseason roster that same issue came up with both carrasco and walker, who basically became $19m worth of inactive roster spots.
if you are going to invest ~8-12m in a back of rotation pitcher, isn't it better if that player has a track record of being a good RP so they don't become useless in the postseason if they aren't 1 of the 4 best SP when the games matter most?
especially if they are 34 years old and dont have a long track record of handling 100+ innings. even last year Lugo only managed 146.
this is one of the features i liked about the severino signing, that more than 1 notable writer projected him as a high end relief option if he continues to struggle starting.
Prediction: Yamamoto will have the best split-finger among all MLB starting pitchers.
Prediction: Yamamoto will have an elite-grade curveball.
Prediction: Yamamoto might have a below-average cutter.
Prediction: Yamamoto should have elite command.
Prediction: Yamamoto’s height is likely irrelevant to the quality of his production, but it may be meaningful for the quantity.
"Nobody knows what they’ll get for sure, but it’s clear that the underlying data suggests that his future MLB team is getting an ace and that the only question is how many innings they’ll get for their trouble."
Perhaps the hope now is that those data-based scouting grades will ensure that teams are making a good decision when they fork over the biggest contract yet for a pitcher coming from Japan. We can say with a tiny bit more certainty that he’s like a Gausman with Bassitt’s curve and Eflin’s command, which would be a dominant combination but also has not necessarily existed in one human being before. Link - ( New Window )
circling back to this for a second, how much is too much for yamamoto?
if he's projected to be a true ace at 25 years old, is $40m x 10 years really that crazy?
4 years ago pre-covid Cole got $36m for 9 years that will convert to 10 x $360m next year. he was entering his a29 so that deal will now take him through his age 38.
if yamamoto is the best starter under 30 years old on the market since cole, which would seem to be evident in his market,
and he's 4 years younger,
and the market has moved in the last 2 years to see 2 SP get $43m AAV,
and JDG got $37m off 2 injury riddled seasons at a34,
i just dont see how we arent looking at a 10+ year deal somewhere in the mid-30's for AAV.
maybe the final landing spot is something like 11x36.33m
and if you want to get really creative, maybe his team gives him something like a $100m signing bonus in return for deferring $100m of it on the back end like Ohtani did? LAD literally saves more $ than that from Ohtani in the next 2 years. if you are one of their competitors you have to think that type of flexibility was exactly what shohei had in mind in structuring his deal like he did.
hopefully this moves quickly so this doesnt become the ohtani sideshow part 2 but i think this is about to be one of most complex FA negotiations in mlb history. if it's all smoke and he ends up signing for something close to the projections with none of the teams doing anything aggressive it'd be shocking at this point.
doesn't think Yamamoto beats Cole's #. Either, Wolfe is really playing most of the media very well, or over 324 seems like a given (of course, he could take less than the top dollar to join his team of choice)
i have not once said yamamoto will cost too much. i want him to be a met at whatever # gets it done as long as cohen is willing to spend and not stop him from making any other moves.
my 2 questions have been:
1) if $ werent unlimited is 1 Yamamoto worth 2 proven top 20 starters and then some (including the reigning NL CY)?
2) what is too much? my post above outlines how even 400m doesnt seem like "too much" if the consensus evaluations of him are in line with eno (which they seem to be). in fact it's quite easy to go even higher. $38m x 12 = $456m + posting fee on top without deferrals would make him the new most expensive contract in baseball history over Ohtani by PV.
yankees have been connected to hicks and a few others.
other teams answers to those 2 questions are key to the mets winning the bidding war bc their $ is by far their biggest weapon.
if Stearns is as disciplined as he has seemed so far he too may have answers to those questions that fall short of where cohen is willing to go.
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I'm legitimately confused, seems like within the same day you'll say Yamamoto's cost will be too much, and then also 40 million per is reasonable
i have not once said yamamoto will cost too much. i want him to be a met at whatever # gets it done as long as cohen is willing to spend and not stop him from making any other moves.
my 2 questions have been:
1) if $ werent unlimited is 1 Yamamoto worth 2 proven top 20 starters and then some (including the reigning NL CY)?
2) what is too much? my post above outlines how even 400m doesnt seem like "too much" if the consensus evaluations of him are in line with eno (which they seem to be). in fact it's quite easy to go even higher. $38m x 12 = $456m + posting fee on top without deferrals would make him the new most expensive contract in baseball history over Ohtani by PV.
Eric,
100% not a call out but
"
i know nobody wanted to play this game but if the price gets painful enough that Yamamoto $ = 2 of the 3 lesser names i really think it's a coinflip which side ends up better. "
Safe to say he's not getting MORE THAN your 40 million number so what would be "painful enough"?
@jonmorosi
Sources: Reds active on free agent and trade markets as they search for a starting pitcher.
Shane Bieber, who has trained at Driveline this offseason, is one name they've checked on via trade.
Michael Wacha and Lucas Giolito are among their FA options.
@MLBNetwork
@MLB
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In comment 16321701 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I'm legitimately confused, seems like within the same day you'll say Yamamoto's cost will be too much, and then also 40 million per is reasonable
i have not once said yamamoto will cost too much. i want him to be a met at whatever # gets it done as long as cohen is willing to spend and not stop him from making any other moves.
my 2 questions have been:
1) if $ werent unlimited is 1 Yamamoto worth 2 proven top 20 starters and then some (including the reigning NL CY)?
2) what is too much? my post above outlines how even 400m doesnt seem like "too much" if the consensus evaluations of him are in line with eno (which they seem to be). in fact it's quite easy to go even higher. $38m x 12 = $456m + posting fee on top without deferrals would make him the new most expensive contract in baseball history over Ohtani by PV.
Eric,
100% not a call out but
"
i know nobody wanted to play this game but if the price gets painful enough that Yamamoto $ = 2 of the 3 lesser names i really think it's a coinflip which side ends up better. "
Safe to say he's not getting MORE THAN your 40 million number so what would be "painful enough"?
Dan, also not a call out but im not sure you are reading what i said correctly.
which side ends up better = which side ends up producing the most in the future, which we dont know. if matt harvey was a free agent in 2015 at age 26 off the WS, how would that have worked out for the signing team relative to how insane the $200m+ market to sign him would have been?
just as many free agents get overpaid as paid correctly, perhaps more because the future is not easy to predict.
and yes spending hundreds of millions on any pitcher is a painful risk to take if money matters at all, which even for cohen it does. the ohtani contract is risk. extending alonso or signing soto will be risks too. and any pitcher is exponentially riskier than any hitter which is why insuring those contracts is multiples more. snell at 200m is a risk. the question is which risks are the best to take on and 1 benefit to signing 2 players instead of 1 is that it hedges some risk.
you posted the numbers a few weeks ago that roughly translated to 1 SP per MLB team ended up having TJS last year right? that would mean of the top 5-10 starters each team enters with on their depth chart, each carries a 10-20% chance of getting TJS. not saying anything of any other non-TJS injuries that could happen like quintana, jv, scherzer, now peterson over the last couple years.
welp 1 extra active roster spot/40 man spot for a veteran. sucks it happened but better now while FA are still available than later when they arent.
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torn ACL
welp 1 extra active roster spot/40 man spot for a veteran. sucks it happened but better now while FA are still available than later when they arent.
To be clear, they can't open a spot until ST.
@jonmorosi
Shōta Imanaga, winning pitcher in the WBC gold medal game, is drawing broad interest from @MLB
clubs, including the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, and Cubs.
Some in the industry believe he could receive an AAV in the $20 million range.
That is awful news.
68 OPS+ over his last 213 games
I think the point (correct me if I'm missing it Eric) Eric is trying to make is that if Yamamoto gets up into the 10yr/$350M+ range, you might be able to sign all of Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Seth Lugo for that same amount of guaranteed money. All things equal, it's nicer to have the bird in hand and consolidate the talent into one player, but you could make a case that the latter package offers similar value. Of course, other teams will be bidding for these players too so it's a matter of being easy to just add them.
I think the point (correct me if I'm missing it Eric) Eric is trying to make is that if Yamamoto gets up into the 10yr/$350M+ range, you might be able to sign all of Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Seth Lugo for that same amount of guaranteed money. All things equal, it's nicer to have the bird in hand and consolidate the talent into one player, but you could make a case that the latter package offers similar value. Of course, other teams will be bidding for these players too so it's a matter of being easy to just add them.
i agree turner becomes an option they probably consider now but his defense at 3b was really bad in limited time last year (57 innings, -3 drs, -4 oaa).
and yes you are understanding correctly - id love to get yamamoto as id have loved to get ohtani or soto. but if you dont get them the world doesnt end, you should still be able to find quality players for your half billion dollars. and nobody can predict how the future goes. the rangers didnt give JDG what they gave him expecting Eovaldi to outproduce him for a fraction of the price.
this quote stearns has repeated articulating the brewers methodology is exactly right imo:
could see an invite like that as competition for baty. someone in sort of the last years gary sanchez position. that would fit the types of players stearns has been signing (lopez, sevy).
Coming off 213 games of a 68 OPS+, for context Baty had a 65 OPS+ last season, Marte 73
great call kd could really see that happening.
Coming off 213 games of a 68 OPS+, for context Baty had a 65 OPS+ last season, Marte 73
I think you are talking about two different roles on the team.
Wendle was signed as the Guillorme role last year. IF versatility. Not starting unless injuries.
Mauricio was basically taking Escobar's spot. Last year Escobar/Baty were splitting 3B and both getting regular ABs.
With Mauricio out, Mets will need a higher level player than Wendle, as they aren't going to give the kind of ABs they were going to give to Mauricio to Wendle.
Bench will be 3B rotation guy (was going to be whichever of Baty/Mauricio was not playing that day, though Mauricio can also play other positions; now would be an IKF/Urshela type.) Wendle (taking the Guillorme role), Narvaez, 4th OF (Stewart?)
Vientos could also see more PT at 3B and maybe there is no external option.
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Just isn’t viable which makes the rush to sign him somewhat confusing. Can’t have an absolute zero out there offensively and if that’s the case his value was what? Being a good teammate? Should they sign an Urshela type then what was the point of Wendle? Probably should have signed somebody who realistically could have played mostly every day at 3B if the kids failed, not a 34 year old
Coming off 213 games of a 68 OPS+, for context Baty had a 65 OPS+ last season, Marte 73
I think you are talking about two different roles on the team.
Wendle was signed as the Guillorme role last year. IF versatility. Not starting unless injuries.
Mauricio was basically taking Escobar's spot. Last year Escobar/Baty were splitting 3B and both getting regular ABs.
With Mauricio out, Mets will need a higher level player than Wendle, as they aren't going to give the kind of ABs they were going to give to Mauricio to Wendle.
Bench will be 3B rotation guy (was going to be whichever of Baty/Mauricio was not playing that day, though Mauricio can also play other positions; now would be an IKF/Urshela type.) Wendle (taking the Guillorme role), Narvaez, 4th OF (Stewart?)
Vientos could also see more PT at 3B and maybe there is no external option.
Wendle is supposed to be a viable fill-in option at multiple positions. The insurance if Baty/Mauricio both struggled was he? Not Jeff McNeil, as McNeil can't play 2 different positions at the same time. As for Mauricio playing other positions, where? Stearns said they had no plans to give him OF reps.
Would expect them to sign a 4th OF that plays CF that will get a lot of PT (Michael Taylor)
That would give them 1 extra guy. Perhaps Stewart doesn't make the team out of spring, or Vientos is optioned to AAA. More likely someone isn't healthy to start the year (ie. Marte)
Wendle (now 34) 84 wrC+ in 2022, 47 in 2023 (not a typo)
Wendle has very little OF experience (none since 2019) when he played 1 inning. Here is what fangraphs had to say
Wendle was signed with the IF spots taken up by Baty/Mauricio at 3B, Lindor at SS, and McNeil at 2B. Not a hell of a lot of PT, and you aren't going to be investing the kind of money you would in an Urshela/IKF type for a guy who is going to play once a week or so if everyone healthy.
Now that Mauricio is out, you get a 3B who you will be playing a lot more/hedging your bets with Baty
Wendle was signed with the IF spots taken up by Baty/Mauricio at 3B, Lindor at SS, and McNeil at 2B. Not a hell of a lot of PT, and you aren't going to be investing the kind of money you would in an Urshela/IKF type for a guy who is going to play once a week or so if everyone healthy.
Now that Mauricio is out, you get a 3B who you will be playing a lot more/hedging your bets with Baty
If they felt Mauricio was a viable 2b then he'd be getting reps there and he wasn't. Stearns made clear he viewed both as 3b.
"“If we go with some of those younger guys, particularly at third base, we are going to have to challenge them to improve [defensively],” Stearns said this week at the general managers’ meetings. “We weren’t good enough there defensively. We’re talking about Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio: I think they have the ability and the physical tools to be a little bit better than they showed at the major league level last year, so that’s a great opportunity for them to prove that.”"
“His tools indicate that he can handle [third base], but we haven’t seen a ton of it,” Stearns said. “He is going to need some reps there, but I think he’s got the reaction time and he’s got the hands, so his skill sets indicate to me that he can handle it.”