- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
New Window )
because it's rare teams upend their entire economic structure in 1 offseason. we all remember arson judge and the correa situation. had they signed judge i dont think they would have also still been in on correa to the extent they were even if they weren't "out".
teams budgets arent infinite (even cohen).
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
Mets had interest here. This deal is significantly more than what most outlets predicted. MLBTR had 5/50.
Same thing happened with Yoshida. When he signed it was being predicted he would get about half of what he did (90 million)
Quote:
Article on the Giants from 2021 regarding their money situation. Unclear why you would think Lee would stop them from going for Yamamoto.. offered Judge *400* million Link - ( New Window )
because it's rare teams upend their entire economic structure in 1 offseason. we all remember arson judge and the correa situation. had they signed judge i dont think they would have also still been in on correa to the extent they were even if they weren't "out".
teams budgets arent infinite (even cohen).
Texas Rangers did just that. 2021 payroll 94 million, 20th in baseball, 2022 142 million OD, 2023 OD 196. Spent 500 million on Semien and Seager the same
Offseason
Center fielder/1B Cody Bellinger now squarely on those teams' radar, along with the Giants.
Center fielder/1B Cody Bellinger now squarely on those teams' radar, along with the Giants.
So Giants still in on Bellinger. He won’t cost 300 million but it sure does suggest they have money to spend . He’s going to get 200 or so when it’s all said and done
Quote:
this tweet was re: lee:
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
Mets had interest here. This deal is significantly more than what most outlets predicted. MLBTR had 5/50.
Same thing happened with Yoshida. When he signed it was being predicted he would get about half of what he did (90 million)
just checked yoshida's median last year was 4x14m.
lee's was 4x15m.
mlbtr hadnt even predicted on yoshida last year so i guess they've been more off than the rest (who have all also been low).
Quote:
In comment 16322222 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Article on the Giants from 2021 regarding their money situation. Unclear why you would think Lee would stop them from going for Yamamoto.. offered Judge *400* million Link - ( New Window )
because it's rare teams upend their entire economic structure in 1 offseason. we all remember arson judge and the correa situation. had they signed judge i dont think they would have also still been in on correa to the extent they were even if they weren't "out".
teams budgets arent infinite (even cohen).
Texas Rangers did just that. 2021 payroll 94 million, 20th in baseball, 2022 142 million OD, 2023 OD 196. Spent 500 million on Semien and Seager the same
Offseason
i didnt say it never happens just that it's rare. the padres are the other team who did it over the last few years and as it turned out they were far enough over their skis they went beyond the debt limits.
every dollar any of these teams give to other players is a dollar less they have to give to yamamoto, and in the case of the teams approaching the various luxury taxes $2-3 more.
and if someone else decides to spend over their skis like SD did, all the power to them. that's 1 less team to compete with in future offseasons. ive been afraid of LAD far more than NYY this entire time for that reason and still am.
this is partially a guess but id imagine part of why they keep losing bidding wars is because players may not be the most confident they will continue spending on more after they go in. they dont want to be both first and last. if they have other options. if they dont as it appeared correa didnt they will sign there.
didnt it come out yesterday that ohtani offered the same deferred contract to all the teams involved?
the payroll value of the contract ($460m),
and the fact that it's not the current owners cash problems for 10 years,
and the extra revenue from signing ohtani made that contract a no brainer for anyone.
that's $700m even the wilponzis would have spent.
other than eno (who was the only writer ive seen suggest "400") this is one of the higher predictions for yamamoto and it still feels very low to me. it seems kind of crazy to me the mets wouldn't beat the cole contract at the very least for a player that much younger.
Age: 25
2023 (Orix Buffaloes, Japan Pacific League): Stats
Team prediction: Yankees
Yamamoto is the most sought-after free agent remaining on the market. When the offseason began, it was believed he would get a contract in the $200 million to $220 million range, but now several front-office executives believe he will get closer to $300 million. Why such a big swing? It’s rare for a top-of-the-rotation starter to hit free agency at such a young age and it’s thought that the bidding war among teams, including many big-market clubs, will drive up the price.
Best fits: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Red Sox, Cubs
Contract prediction: Nine years, $304 million
2. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Age: 30
2023 (Rangers/Cardinals): 4.1 WAR
Team prediction: Rangers
3. Blake Snell, LHP
Age: 31
2023 (Padres): 6.0 WAR
Team prediction: Mets
Snell went 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts over 32 starts. He didn’t allow a run in five of his last six starts and was one of the bright spots for the Padres in a disappointing season. However, he’s only pitched 130 innings or more in two of his eight seasons, although he did win a Cy Young Award both years (2018 with Tampa Bay and this year with San Diego). Snell’s market has been quiet but most team executives believe that if Yamamoto declines the Mets’ offer, they will pivot to Snell.
Best fits: Mets, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers
Contract prediction: Six years, $162 million
has mets mentioned with Giolito but him choosing LAD for 1 year 15m.
Where will the top remaining MLB free agents sign? Predicting their new teams, contracts - ( New Window )
He is expected to return to baseball activity in 10 to 12 months. As a result, he will miss the entire 2024 season.
Link - ( New Window )
@AzoulayHaron
·
3m
BREAKING: The Dodgers are on the verge of acquiring RHP Tyler Glasnow, and OF Manuel Margot sources tell
@MLBNerds
.
this would be +35m for LAD and put their lux tax payroll around $260m.
plus kershaw still out there unsigned. he's estimated at another 1x20m. plus buehler, gonsolin, sheehan, miller, pepiot, may. how many yachts can they water ski behind?
well cross pepiot off my list i guess.
steamer projos for next year:
kershaw 1.8 (presumably)
glasnow 3.8
miller 2.8
buehler 2.2
sheehan 1.6
stone 1.1
may maybe late season
ohtani back next season
if they spend $300m+ on yamamoto on top of all that, man.
i assume they are done with urias no matter what since it was his 2nd strike and no contract but his case just got passed over to da.
i think the texas thing was him floating something to keep them honest knowing they were out there looking at all the top names. he was still 13-5 last year with a sub 3 era and on a 1 year deal is a no brainer.
i dont know if its yamamoto fomo or what but especially for lad, spending the $ they have left on glasnow + imanaga + hader or some combo like that seems like a wiser investment than another huge chunk on 1 player. but maybe that's just wishful thinking for mets.
I think he wrote it before LAD got Glasnow, so he doesn't mention that for them. not sure if intentional or not but he lists the teams LAD, NYY, NYM.
Rarely does Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman sign free agents at the top of the market. Shohei Ohtani was an exception, but that deal was likely fueled by business interests as much as it was by baseball considerations.
Yamamoto would be a purely baseball pursuit, particularly when any marketing benefit would be muted by the presence of Ohtani. But the massive deferrals in Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract might provide an immediate boost for the Dodgers in their pursuit of Yamamoto.
In one sense, the timing lines up almost perfectly.
Ohtani will receive $2 million in each year of his deal, with $68 million deferred. The Dodgers, however, will not need to fund his 2024 deferral until July 1, 2026. The balance of Yamamoto’s posting fee would be due just before that. The team that signs him must pay 50 percent of the fee within the first 14 days, another 25 percent within 12 months and the final 25 percent within 18.
The Dodgers met with Yamamoto on Tuesday. Between injuries, free-agent departures and the major elbow surgery that will prevent Ohtani from pitching in ’24, the team badly needs starting pitching. Assuming Yamamoto is willing to play alongside Ohtani — no team has ever had two Japanese superstars of such magnitude — he looms as a rather obvious answer.
Yankees
Yamamoto is said to enjoy the spotlight, which makes him a natural fit for New York as well as Los Angeles. The Yankees, even coming off a down year, remain one of the glamor teams in the sport. And they already have traded for Juan Soto, along with fellow outfielders Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo.
The interesting part of the Yankees’ pursuit of Yamamoto is that signing him might diminish their appetite for retaining Soto, who is eligible for free agency at the end of the season. Owner Hal Steinbrenner repeatedly has shown there are limits to his spending. And consider the obligations the Yankees would face if they signed Soto on top of Yamamoto long-term:
Aaron Judge: Earning $40 million annually through 2031.
Gerrit Cole: Earning $36 million annually through 2028. If he opts out at the end of the year, the Yankees can void his decision and retain him by tacking on another $36 million season to the end of his deal.
Giancarlo Stanton: Averaging $26.6 million guaranteed annually, including a $10 million buyout for 2028.
Carlos Rodón: Earning $27 million annually through 2028.
Yamamoto: A 10-year deal would take him through 2033.
Soto: His agent, Scott Boras, almost certainly will seek to beat Ohtani’s discounted present value of $460 million. So, let’s assume the floor for Soto is 10 years, $500 million, with no deferrals.
So, combining those salaries and estimates, we’re talking almost $215 million annually for six players from 2025 to 2027, and considerable sums beyond.
None of that should deter the Yankees from going hard after Yamamoto, particularly when they are hardly guaranteed to retain Soto. At his introductory news conference Tuesday, Soto said he has “the best agent in the league and I put everything on him and let him do his magic for me.” Interpret that as you will.
Mets
Perhaps not even Ohtani fit the Mets’ “2025 and beyond” plan better than Yamamoto. Unlike Ohtani, Yamamoto will not cost the team that signs him a draft pick. He is four years younger than Ohtani. And his future as a pitcher is not in question.
For Mets owner Steven Cohen, that combination of factors should prove irresistible. If Cohen chooses, he can tell Yamamoto’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman Media Group, that he will top any offer by $50 million. What exactly would stop him?
Cohen declined to compete with the Yankees for Judge, perhaps because the Mets had greater needs, perhaps out of deference for Steinbrenner, who supported Cohen’s problematic bid to become owner. Yamamoto is a different story, an undeniably outstanding fit.
The danger for Cohen is being used as a stalking horse for a team Yamamoto prefers, perhaps even the Yankees. But the Mets last season successfully incorporated Kodai Senga, a former teammate of Yamamoto’s with Team Japan. Senga has spoken highly of Yamamoto and is also represented by Wolfe.
As one rival executive put it, “If you’re not signing Yamamoto, what’s the point of being Steve Cohen?”
the mets only have 1 path to getting him, which is a crazy price tag, and that path isn't even a guarantee. but as long as somebody pays a crazy price they have done all they can do and can pivot to the next best options with 1 less competitor in the market. being used as a stalking horse isnt a danger, it's a necessity.
Rosenthal: Yoshinobu Yamamoto has choices. Here’s a look at his suitors - ( New Window )
Nightengale says Yamamoto still has meetings with both Boston and Toronto upcoming
Snell and SF feels like a good fit.
if Mets miss on Yamamoto i think their preferred backup is probably Montgomery and Imanaga, which the only downside would be a very left handed rotation - which is probably another reason they moved quick on a power righty with Severino.
And yet. Despite all this, most sources with direct knowledge of Yamamoto’s intentions say that the Mets have somehow climbed into a solid position. The vibe began to shift after Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns visited Yamamoto in Japan two weeks ago.
Now, sources with direct knowledge put the Mets in the top two or three candidates for Yamamoto (note to aggregators, human and artificial: that’s an estimate from sources, not an exact list of rankings; there is no clear frontrunner).
Ultimately, finishing second or third on Yamamoto will be the same as finishing sixth. You either get the player or you don’t. But it’s notable that, as this free agency rounds its final turn, the Mets are at least contenders.
Frontrunners? They never have been.
But somehow, despite all the factors working against them, the Mets do have a chance.
Could underdog Mets actually land coveted free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Steve Cohen and company appear to have steadily improved their standing - ( New Window )
i think end of day LAD will not climb to the NY prices and instead pivot to a Hader + Imanaga + Kershaw combo (plus Glasnow). That feels more like their investing style.
Unless there's some kind of ohtani recruiting factor at play with yamamoto. he very well may pick LAD/NYY but i dont think they will be the high $.
anyone offering the most money is going to be in the final 2-3. especially if they are the team who spends the most money.
in back to back offseasons the mets have signed the 2 most expensive by aav contracts in mlb history. only 2 over 40m. as long as they were interested in yamamoto they were going to end up right where they are now.
their best fortune in all of this is that ohtani chose LAD and Soto got to NY. had those 2 things not happened then the bidding would have been even more super charged.
""I don't know how to answer that," Kershaw said when asked about potentially walking away from the sport. His statement about the surgery did at least leave open the door to returning, saying he was "hopeful" to pitch at some point next summer."
If Kershaw is going to play in 2024, the Rangers and Dodgers are the two most likely landing spots. The Dodgers are the only franchise he's ever played for since being selected with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 MLB draft.
""I don't know how to answer that," Kershaw said when asked about potentially walking away from the sport. His statement about the surgery did at least leave open the door to returning, saying he was "hopeful" to pitch at some point next summer."
If Kershaw is going to play in 2024, the Rangers and Dodgers are the two most likely landing spots. The Dodgers are the only franchise he's ever played for since being selected with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 MLB draft.
maybe i dont remember which post you mean specifically, i was only mentioning him for salary reasons - which hes projected at 20m. whether they sign him now or later i think they are likely anticipating that in their budget.
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Stroman
5. Imanaga
6. Giolito
7. Wacha
8. Flaherty
9. Paxton
10. Manaea
Top remaining FA SP (@keithlaw
) (I'm skipping Kershaw as he's not going to be a Met)
1. Yamamoto
2. Montgomery
3. Snell
4. Stroman
5. Imanaga
6. Clevinger
7. Wacha
8. Giolito
9. Lorenzen
10. Flaherty
@mlbtraderumors
top 10 remaining FA SP
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Imanaga
5. Giolito
6. Stroman
7. Flaherty
8. Wacha
9. Clevinger
10. Lorenzen
kershaw has only pitched about 20 games per year for the last 3 years and we've seen this same offseason dance with him each of the prior 2 offseasons:
DEC 5 2022 Signed a 1 year $20 million contract with Los Angeles (LAD)
MAR 11 2022Signed a 1 year $17 million contract with Los Angeles (LAD)
he has been battling injuries for the last half decade and they still pay him and he still makes 20 starts with a sub-3 era. he is the lad sp zombie. maybe this year is the year it changes but there is no way they arent at least leaving open the possibility of a return, which they'd need to budget for.
2021 his first start was opening day
2022 his first start was April 13th
2023 his first start was opening day
2024 his first start (if it comes at all) will be in July/August.
He's top 10 in both starts and innings pitched since 2018, and despite his post-trade troubles still posted a 3.79 era first 21 starts. He made a whopping 33 starts in 2023, 131 k's over 121 innings pre-trade.
As bad as he was post trade (and he was) his 2nd start with Cleveland 7 innings 3 hits 2 er 0 walks 9 k's, and his 3rd start with Cleveland 7 innings 2 hits 0 runs 1 walks 12 k's) even his 4th start.. 5.1 innings 3 er
Starts 3-4-5 with LAA 18 innings 15 hits 21 k's 4.00 era/3.87 FIP. So yeah, the overall numbers post trade were really bad but he still made 7 starts allowing 4 or less runs post trade,6 starts 3 or less.
He's no longer the all-star caliber guy but he'll only be 30 in July, not the worst thing to have an innings eater who can miss bats, especially with a likely ??? bullpen on paper
Quote:
It’s obvious to note that Cohen holds a financial advantage over all other suitors, though it is not known if Yamamoto will sign with the highest bidder. Plus, Cohen tends to be careful about being used to drive up prices -- after months of speculation that he would blow away managerial free agent Craig Counsell, Cohen actually put in the lowest bid, below even Milwaukee’s.
And yet. Despite all this, most sources with direct knowledge of Yamamoto’s intentions say that the Mets have somehow climbed into a solid position. The vibe began to shift after Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns visited Yamamoto in Japan two weeks ago.
Now, sources with direct knowledge put the Mets in the top two or three candidates for Yamamoto (note to aggregators, human and artificial: that’s an estimate from sources, not an exact list of rankings; there is no clear frontrunner).
Ultimately, finishing second or third on Yamamoto will be the same as finishing sixth. You either get the player or you don’t. But it’s notable that, as this free agency rounds its final turn, the Mets are at least contenders.
Frontrunners? They never have been.
But somehow, despite all the factors working against them, the Mets do have a chance.
Could underdog Mets actually land coveted free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Steve Cohen and company appear to have steadily improved their standing - ( New Window )
The Counsell note *should* make those who think they scrambled for plan B in Mendoza feel a little bit better.
He's top 10 in both starts and innings pitched since 2018, and despite his post-trade troubles still posted a 3.79 era first 21 starts. He made a whopping 33 starts in 2023, 131 k's over 121 innings pre-trade.
As bad as he was post trade (and he was) his 2nd start with Cleveland 7 innings 3 hits 2 er 0 walks 9 k's, and his 3rd start with Cleveland 7 innings 2 hits 0 runs 1 walks 12 k's) even his 4th start.. 5.1 innings 3 er
Starts 3-4-5 with LAA 18 innings 15 hits 21 k's 4.00 era/3.87 FIP. So yeah, the overall numbers post trade were really bad but he still made 7 starts allowing 4 or less runs post trade,6 starts 3 or less.
He's no longer the all-star caliber guy but he'll only be 30 in July, not the worst thing to have an innings eater who can miss bats, especially with a likely ??? bullpen on paper
i think the reason giolito is quiet is because he is likely to prefer a pillow contract. he is in a similar situation to conforto last year but for different reasons.
i havent seen any 2-3 year multi-year projection that seems good enough to stop him from taking a 1x20m and re-entering the market next year hoping to get $100m+. a good year (3+ fwar) would likely land him something comparable to whatever montgomery gets this year.
2021 his first start was opening day
2022 his first start was April 13th
2023 his first start was opening day
2024 his first start (if it comes at all) will be in July/August.
maybe im just going by the aggregate projections (which include all the guesses from execs who talk to heyman, bowden, etc). some had him lower like 12m, some had him higher above 20m (including heymans experts and bowden).
i do recall there were 1-2 times in there prior where kershaw had the back and arm issues that made his situation very tbd. if he was considered fully healthy the last few years he would have been making more than he made on 1 year deals, possibly by as much as double. he was worth almost as much on the field in 2022 (3.8 fwar) as scherzer and he got a contract less than half of what scherzer/jv got for just 1 year even though he was healthy enough to start opening day. and he's 3+ years younger than both. thats why i think he's always just going to choose to go back to LAD, this time included, and whatever the contract is it will be a steal for LAD even if it's no different than the severino contract. steamer has a higher projection on kershaw in 16 starts next year than severino in 26.
MLB agents, executives react to Shohei Ohtani’s wild Dodgers contract - ( New Window )