- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
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He grew up a Dodgers fan, so he ignored paying attention to teams the Dodgers played, ignored that players like Nomo/Shinjo etc played for the Mets, ignored that Kaz Matsui, Masato Yoshii, Shingo Takatsu,Kazuhisa Ishii, Tsuyoshi Shinjo (all managers currently in Japan) once played for the Mets? Ignored the 2015 WS completely
any deferrals/CBT games help the competition more than the mets, so i think id go the opposite way to make this as player favorable as possible with a straight 10 years $400m, year 5 opt out, and structure something like $100m cash up front signing bonus with flat salaries after that and with the 62m posting fee on top of all that.
that is a $462m investment, with $192m year 1 cash before accounting for CBT taxes, and opposite of the ohtani contract, the $100m straight to yamamoto actually makes it a more valuable deal. if he lives on his $30m salary and keeps all $100m in an interest generating bank account with 0 risk it's conservatively $105m in 12 months.
without deferral games $400m against the CBT payroll for 10 years would be $40m. if a CY winner like Snell costs $30m is it worth paying Yamamoto 1/3 more plus taxes? i have a hard time saying yes to that but a 25 year old ace is a unicorn. i have a hard time remembering the last one that was on a free agent market.
Rays Metrics
@RaysMetrics
Minor leaguers since the start of 2022 who have both a K% < 19% AND a SLG > .550
1. Junior Caminero (151 wRC+)
2. Jonny Deluca (135 wRC+)
3. Dominic Canzone (135 wRC+)
(min. 600 PA in that span)
well eno is the only person i've seen mention "400m".
the highest projection ive seen (bowden) has "only" gone up to $300m.
so i view a $400m suggestion around 50-100m higher than what is currently viewed as the projection, and on top of that the upfront cash makes it a more valuable deal. it is the sticker shock of $700m to ohtani but without any games.
That seems very unlikely. Initial estimates within the industry were that Yamamoto would receive a contract worth north of $200 million, the largest of the offseason for a pitcher. That number has seemingly risen in recent weeks, with many now believing the right-hander will land a deal worth at least $250 million over eight years.
"
right and that seems to be the consensus, i also dont buy it.
if the mets didnt feel that way about yamamoto i find it hard to believe they'd be as all in on him as they appear to be.
so i'd be kind of shocked if they arent willing to push an offer into the 325-350m range.
are they willing to make him the 3rd 40m AAV SP ever over a much longer term before throwing a pitch in MLB?
with some kind of record setting signing bonus and a posting fee?
i dont know the answer to either of those questions because on face value it would seem crazy.
he didn't put it out there as reporting it was a throwaway line. you seemed to suggest that 400m isnt way beyond what pretty much any one has suggested so far.
eno's throwaway line is literally the only place ive seen it other than this thread.
Quote:
Eno isn't a reporter, he's an analyst. He's my favorite baseball follow on twitter and a great guy but I wouldn't read much into salary number tweets he's putting out there.
he didn't put it out there as reporting it was a throwaway line. you seemed to suggest that 400m isnt way beyond what pretty much any one has suggested so far.
eno's throwaway line is literally the only place ive seen it other than this thread.
I don't actually think Yamamoto is getting 400 million (unless it's some sort of Ohtani contract situation). I do think the Mets will offer more than Cole's 324. He very well may sign with NYY or LAD for less than that though.
which also noted with posting fee included, which would mean a $345m offer to yamamoto.
so 400m + posting fee on top, cash upfront is a pretty insane offer. mets may need an insane offer to get him though.
so that's the question, how insane are any of us willing to go?
Quote:
In comment 16322919 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Eno isn't a reporter, he's an analyst. He's my favorite baseball follow on twitter and a great guy but I wouldn't read much into salary number tweets he's putting out there.
he didn't put it out there as reporting it was a throwaway line. you seemed to suggest that 400m isnt way beyond what pretty much any one has suggested so far.
eno's throwaway line is literally the only place ive seen it other than this thread.
I don't actually think Yamamoto is getting 400 million (unless it's some sort of Ohtani contract situation). I do think the Mets will offer more than Cole's 324. He very well may sign with NYY or LAD for less than that though.
that's exactly how i see it, so if you are the mets i think you need to be thinking about not just being the best offer but the best offer by some margin. or with some kind of highly appealing sweetener (like signing bonus or opt out).
right so put on your david stearns hat, what's your #? i think cohen is saying yes to whatever stearns suggests.
just a human nature planning process guess, meetings this week, take the weekend to think about it, decision early next week so there's time to do whatever needs to get done before holidays.
if he has his heart set on lad or nyy or if 1 suitor offers something crazy like the mets may, maybe that speeds things up. would think the other pitching dominos behind him will move quickly once he decides.
Deal Alonso, let Diaz come back and come back strong, establish value, and deal him at the deadline (maybe to someone desperate and lump in Marte), get under the LT after this season when the bulk of the Scherzer and Verlander money are done ($17M left in 2025?) and let Stearns build a team.
half-assing it or patching shit together with duct tape and bubble gum just inflates payroll, inflates expectations and pisses off fans.
what gets even more interesting is if you include alvarez, because i dont think he is best in almost any those under the hood stats, and meanwhile most met fans would probably be thrilled with a $100m extension.
alvarez' defense is the biggest difference between him and the other 3, and the homers which hid some underlying mixed bags.
out of the other 3 i think picking who hits/doesnt is close to impossible which is why i wanted to get them as much opportunity as possible last year.
1/3 being a long term + starter is a good outcome.
2/3 would be great.
3/3 would be amazing, but obviously unlikely.
now i guess next year starts with 2, so hopefully 1 of baty/vientos takes the offensive leap above an 800 ops.
Deal Alonso, let Diaz come back and come back strong, establish value, and deal him at the deadline (maybe to someone desperate and lump in Marte), get under the LT after this season when the bulk of the Scherzer and Verlander money are done ($17M left in 2025?) and let Stearns build a team.
half-assing it or patching shit together with duct tape and bubble gum just inflates payroll, inflates expectations and pisses off fans.
missing on all 3 would take jeff wilpon as gm level incompetence. and even if they did, there would still be imanaga + giolito who arent projected that far off.
if they missed on all the above i agree with you but i dont think that's a likely scenario.
i also dont think getting some of the above would stop them from selling if it makes sense a la sherzer/verlander. i think that card is on the table any year the team doesnt perform competitively.
Vientos and Baty both just turned 24
Mauricio will be 23 to begin the season
Alvarez will be 22 for the entire 2024 season
If Alvarez repeats 2023 (while still good) some of the buzz likely won't remain. I'm not saying if he has an "okay" season vs. a breakout it means a whole lot but 2 years younger is still 2 years younger.
Vientos and Baty both just turned 24
Mauricio will be 23 to begin the season
Alvarez will be 22 for the entire 2024 season
If Alvarez repeats 2023 (while still good) some of the buzz likely won't remain. I'm not saying if he has an "okay" season vs. a breakout it means a whole lot but 2 years younger is still 2 years younger.
100% - that's why he was behind the others rightfully and only moved up when he did bc of injuries.
wasnt intending to knock alvarez just pointing out the general opinions of all 4 arent as black/white as reality. they all had some things they were good at (and in some cases very good at like vientos exit velo, bat speed, barrel%, and mauricio's linedrive rate) along with some negatives that they will either adjust or could hold them back. volpe is in a very similar boat with nyy btw. reasonably comparable debut season to alvarez except not quite as good.
@Ken_Rosenthal
says Yamamoto's decision will probably come down to where he wants to play, not how much money he wants.
@Ken_Rosenthal
says Yamamoto's decision will probably come down to where he wants to play, not how much money he wants.
which is why for mets to mets get him, it probably has to start with a big offer communicated preemptively or else they risk not even getting a chance to shoot that shot.
thats the math exercise of what is the # you go to preemptively to set the market? and what # is so high the value is better with others?
in some ways the mets are kind of like cubs in the counsell negotiation. $ aside, brewers were long considered the favored destination but the cubs came in hard with big money and i dont think it was even reported that he went back to milwaukee with a chance to match.
@FabianArdaya
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s meeting with the Dodgers yesterday at Dodger Stadium featured star power that included Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman….and Shohei Ohtani, sources tell me and @Ken_Rosenthal
.
this is a quick copy/paste from savant to a google sheet showing what all 4 were good at and bad at compared to alonso/lindor.
of the 4:
vientos had the best bat speed, power, etc but most swing/miss and ground balls.
mauricio had the least power but the least swing/miss and highest line drive rate, best consistent contact.
alvarez power was close but not as good as vientos, but he got better results from a better launch angle and a better barrel% while having slightly better swing/miss ground ball rates (prob thanks to better launch angle).
baty was kind of worst of all worlds but not by huge margins. he did combo a good line drive rate with a higher barrel rate and hh% than mauricios.
all in all 4 very similar mixed bag seasons. i would be curious to see how vientos' numbers differed when he played every day.
as crappy as the mauricio injury is, i also dont think it changes much for big league club in the sense that it is unlikely they were going to play all 4 of them every day to start the year. so depth takes a hit but baty/vientos get their openings. no good injuries but at least they have time to find a veteran option.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aFqjXe2rtFLAVpoQE3NqT8F0SYvxLwfrkwmwj-VkA-w/edit?usp=sharing - ( New Window )
@FabianArdaya
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s meeting with the Dodgers yesterday at Dodger Stadium featured star power that included Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman….and Shohei Ohtani, sources tell me and @Ken_Rosenthal
.
im a lot more worried about LAD than NYY. more money to spend (than nyy), west coast, childhood team, ohtani, etc.
only slight comfort is that they've shown restraint in the past if the $ gets crazy.
b) cohen getting yamamoto at a crazy deal
c) yamamoto choosing the pinstripes in the evil empire rebirth
gotta be A right? almost feel like cohen is least bad option.
b) cohen getting yamamoto at a crazy deal
c) yamamoto choosing the pinstripes in the evil empire rebirth
gotta be A right? almost feel like cohen is least bad option.
Easily A. People are already saying the Dodgers are going to ruin the game, how it's bad for baseball, all-star team etc. The Yankees are coming off a down season, and have a good, not great roster even with Yamamoto. The Mets are seen as a mediocre roster even with Yamamoto and even with their 2023 payroll, it wasn't exactly loaded with name "stars" in their primes. LAD right now has 4 players on 1st ballot HOF tracks...
w/ glasnow = 245m
+yamamoto = 275m (median projection is $30m)
+hader = 295m (media projection is $20m)
median projection is 6.0 x $29.08M (174m)
so would imagine that means his current ask is 8x30m
and his deal eventually falls somewhere in between
they just dropped 2m + 2m incentives on daniel hudson on a minor league deal. fun times to be a dodger fan.
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
·
14m
Dodgers are signing Daniel Hudson to a minor league deal, source confirms to The Athletic. It will be worth $2 million if he makes the major league club and up to $2 million more in performance bonuses based off games and games finished.
@JeffPassan
was on it.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
1h
the Mets bypassing Ohtani and every other major FA/trade target to put all their eggs in the Yamamoto basket means that if they don't get Yamamoto they basically tossed away the entire offseason by misjudging the market
Later this offseason, Lindor intends to replicate that experience with Baty, another young infielder who recently graduated from prospect status without quite establishing himself as a full-time big leaguer.
“I’m just focused on what the team wants,” Vientos said. “I’m just asking questions of Mendoza and trying to figure out what’s going on. I’m just focused on getting better. The little things that I want to improve on -- defense, offense, baserunning -- I just want to be [better] all around. I know I can be all around and provide for this team as much as possible.”
What's next for Mets' infield after Mauricio injury - ( New Window )