- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
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believes the Yankees are indeed in the drivers seat for Yamamoto.
Based on that guys track record, lock it in for an introductory presser next week at Citi Field!
lol
He was not subject to MLB drug testing last year, so who knows. Trying to remain optimistic on him...
Seriously though, he's a 6th starter. He better not open in the rotation, save for injury or serious "improvement"
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Would he be in an ideal rotation, 3/4?
5b
#bigsplash
The 30-year-old has a 2.59 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 59 innings the last two seasons in the Japan Central League.
He last pitched in the big leagues in 2021.
It's a good move if he's a 6th/7th SP like that. 2 FA TBD, Senga, Quintana, Sevy
Mauricio has hit very well so far but I was told by one of the writers that he could easily have 5 errors at this point. Maybe he’s pressing but he has to improve defensively at 3B
I say this obviously in light of the reports that Ohtani might actually wind up back with the Angels or in LA.
Not sure how the eastern franchises can compete in a crowded market when you have the Asian ballplayers logically looking to stay as far west as possible for obvious reasons.
Our main draw is that Cohen has more money than anyone, and I guess that Senga is here already? If that is even a draw for YY. The Giants and Dodgers both have enough money to get him if they want.
I say this obviously in light of the reports that Ohtani might actually wind up back with the Angels or in LA.
Not sure how the eastern franchises can compete in a crowded market when you have the Asian ballplayers logically looking to stay as far west as possible for obvious reasons.
Our main draw is that Cohen has more money than anyone, and I guess that Senga is here already? If that is even a draw for YY. The Giants and Dodgers both have enough money to get him if they want.
Or in Toronto that should read re: Ohtani.
Link - ( New Window )
It feels like the Wilpon times, where we are fighting with the bottom feeder Sox for guys who have been out of the majors for two years, right?
But the reality is, in those days he'd be counted on as a 4th SP. With no backup plan.
But coming into this offseason there were several massive holes on this roster, and it was all on the bump. We lacked TOR and depth in the rotation, and same for the BP. They are taking several very low risk, but with upside signings. With backups to the backups for depth.
If they swing and miss at the top of the market, they at least got the depth they wanted and need. SP and RP.
Fedde isn't the pitcher he was when he left the states, I think Dan linked an article about it. Who knows what he's got to offer, but why not take a chance? You can't sign a 5th BP arm for 2/$12, so why not???
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2 hits and a SB.. also his 4th error at 3B
Mauricio has hit very well so far but I was told by one of the writers that he could easily have 5 errors at this point. Maybe he’s pressing but he has to improve defensively at 3B
Did we get any read-out on the "types of Errors" Ronny is charged with ?
Slow Rollers he has to bare-hand and throw ?
Hard hit grounders off his chest ?
Throwing errors across the diamond ?
I realize he's had two months off, and he's just getting back on the field. He's got the arm to play third, but the Hot Corner is not a position you 'learn on the fly'
I saw him make a few nice pivots at 2B last fall, and he chased down a pop-up in foul territory that nobody was going to get to.
The left field experiment ended quickly. Let's give the kid a chance to succeed.
I say this obviously in light of the reports that Ohtani might actually wind up back with the Angels or in LA.
Not sure how the eastern franchises can compete in a crowded market when you have the Asian ballplayers logically looking to stay as far west as possible for obvious reasons.
Our main draw is that Cohen has more money than anyone, and I guess that Senga is here already? If that is even a draw for YY. The Giants and Dodgers both have enough money to get him if they want.
9/10 times players take biggest contract offer - and there's as much or more reason to believe that will be mets as anyone else. They spent $40m more than the next closest team in mlb history, and tried to spend even more than that with correa.
they went head to head with dodgers for best pitcher on market in 2 of the last 3 offseasons, winning 1 and losing 1. they got JV and Senga last year.
any individual player can be the 1/10, especially if we are talking about a foreign player choosing where to live in a new country, but id be pretty floored if they dont sign at least 1 of Yamamoto, Montgomery, Snell.
https://sny.tv/articles/mets-2024-mlb-draft-lottery-need-know - ( New Window )
As well as trading away a top prospect...
if they get both soto and yamamoto that will be a wow.
and if LAD miss on ohtani? talk about chaos.
i have a hard time believing all 3 will go that way, but i guess we will see. crazy that if yankees miss on either 1 at this point i think their fans will consider it a letdown.
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In comment 16313693 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
2 hits and a SB.. also his 4th error at 3B
Mauricio has hit very well so far but I was told by one of the writers that he could easily have 5 errors at this point. Maybe he’s pressing but he has to improve defensively at 3B
Did we get any read-out on the "types of Errors" Ronny is charged with ?
Slow Rollers he has to bare-hand and throw ?
Hard hit grounders off his chest ?
Throwing errors across the diamond ?
I realize he's had two months off, and he's just getting back on the field. He's got the arm to play third, but the Hot Corner is not a position you 'learn on the fly'
I saw him make a few nice pivots at 2B last fall, and he chased down a pop-up in foul territory that nobody was going to get to.
The left field experiment ended quickly. Let's give the kid a chance to succeed.
3 of the 4 errors have been throwing. The other was a booted ball.
Would be a bummer to lose him to a west coast team, but I could completely understand why it's hard for NYM to compete with that.
Losing him to NYY would be an extra bitter pill to swallow. If he's willing to play in NY, then Cohen needs to make sure he's turning down a lot of money to play in the Bronx. The Mets need to close this out. A 25-year old ace is too valuable to miss out on given the dire depth we have the minors.
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Sources now saying the Yankees believe they will sign Yamamoto.
if they get both soto and yamamoto that will be a wow.
and if LAD miss on ohtani? talk about chaos.
i have a hard time believing all 3 will go that way, but i guess we will see. crazy that if yankees miss on either 1 at this point i think their fans will consider it a letdown.
Yes, their fans will. Which is why their strategy has backfired on them for so long.
Ask any Yankee fan if Cashman is a good GM or not?
Then ask them how the franchise has don the past decade.
Then have them look up the winningest franchise in baseball the past ten years or so.
Found a neat graphic, lots of surprises on there IMO
Graphic link - ( New Window )
Found a neat graphic, lots of surprises on there IMO
Graphic link - ( New Window )
Cleveland with the fourth best winning percentage is a bit of a surprise.
Quote:
In comment 16313870 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Sources now saying the Yankees believe they will sign Yamamoto.
if they get both soto and yamamoto that will be a wow.
and if LAD miss on ohtani? talk about chaos.
i have a hard time believing all 3 will go that way, but i guess we will see. crazy that if yankees miss on either 1 at this point i think their fans will consider it a letdown.
Yes, their fans will. Which is why their strategy has backfired on them for so long.
Ask any Yankee fan if Cashman is a good GM or not?
Then ask them how the franchise has don the past decade.
Then have them look up the winningest franchise in baseball the past ten years or so.
i get all that but this seems a little different. i dont recall a team ever getting this out over their skiis setting expectations this high before.
soto is a trade but will be in line next year for either the biggest or 2nd biggest contract in MLB history (depending on how high ohtani goes this year).
yamamoto seems to be trending towards getting the 2nd biggest contract for a pitcher ever to only Cole.
nyy already have cole (36m), rendon (28m), stanton (32m), judge (40m) all through 2028 or beyond. all 31 or older already.
that's $134m on 4 players already and basically $200m on 6 players if they get both yamamoto and soto.
last year was their highest OD payroll ever and it was 268m.
if the yankees get both it will a more "all in" roster than the mets had last year, by a good margin. they will have at minimum the 2nd highest payroll ever, they will be the 2nd team into the cohen tax, and they will be landlocked there for probably a half decade.
1 more year of rizzo at 17m.
and $15m of buried/retained $ (donaldson, hicks).
so $200m on 6 players,
$47m of bad $ on dj/rizzo (x3 years for dj),
+50m of projected arb/prearb
and tommy kahnle, their sole veteran RP taking them over $300m. and if im remembering correctly BP was one of their biggest issues last year so they'd probably need to keep spending.
the math is crazy, and martino is saying the same thing and he's as well sourced as anyone w/ yankees right now writing that cashman book. maybe cashman really just says f it (literally) and is all in?
@jonbecker_
An intriguing free agent I've seen nobody talk about: Shelby Miller. Allowed just 19 hits in 42 innings (.135 BAA), backed up pretty darn well by xBA allowed (.188). Gets elite extension so his fastball velo plays up
1 more year of rizzo at 17m.
and $15m of buried/retained $ (donaldson, hicks).
so $200m on 6 players,
$47m of bad $ on dj/rizzo (x3 years for dj),
+50m of projected arb/prearb
and tommy kahnle, their sole veteran RP taking them over $300m. and if im remembering correctly BP was one of their biggest issues last year so they'd probably need to keep spending.
the math is crazy, and martino is saying the same thing and he's as well sourced as anyone w/ yankees right now writing that cashman book. maybe cashman really just says f it (literally) and is all in?
Their bullpen wasn't outstanding but it was more than fine. 9th in era/16th in FIP
"Lance Brozdowski
@LanceBroz
Scratching my head w/ some of the Fedde data I saw from KBO.
Was expecting something to be different … and everything looks … the same between 2022 and 2023?
Velo up a little. Sinker shape slightly worse (obviously different ball), throwing sinker more.
Big shrug from me. 🤷♂️"
Lance Brozdowski
@LanceBroz
Yeah, maybe I’m discounting the sweeper improvement. I have it 78 last year to 81-82 average in NPB. Def a grade jump there.
But just don’t think the sinker is good. 🤷♂️
Who knows if it works over here. Less likely it will than won't - but it's just money. Back end RP money.
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Sources now saying the Yankees believe they will sign Yamamoto.
Would be a bummer to lose him to a west coast team, but I could completely understand why it's hard for NYM to compete with that.
Losing him to NYY would be an extra bitter pill to swallow. If he's willing to play in NY, then Cohen needs to make sure he's turning down a lot of money to play in the Bronx. The Mets need to close this out. A 25-year old ace is too valuable to miss out on given the dire depth we have the minors.
Absolutely
Who knows if it works over here. Less likely it will than won't - but it's just money. Back end RP money.
It's fine for the price but I was hoping to read more substantial changes than apparently what really happened. KBO offense was down substantially this season (6 players hit 20+ homers) so that certainly helped him.
But it changes my approach.
I'd even consider trying to reset - to the extent possible - and get under the luxury tax and create a new plan.
the Mets don't have the pitching prospects, don't have the young pitchers at the major league level. Don't have much bullpen depth, and the lineup has holes.
Not saying there is nothing salvageable but my model to compete is quality and quantity approach to starting pitching (5 #2/3's is better than an ace and 4 4's, or even two old aces and a bunch of 4/5/6's like last year) if you know what I mean), elite bullpen and top notch defense. - like the SF Giants WS teams.
I don't see how the Mets get there. Even Yamamoto wasn't a given - sure he'd help, but there is a lot of work even if the Mets do somehow wind up with him.
@patrickrglynn
John Herman says:
-The Cubs are interested in Rhys Hoskins because “Pete Alonso isn’t going anywhere”
-The Braves are interested in Seth Lugo
-Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the Mets’ top choice in free agency
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But it is less about his pitch usage over there, than his pitch quality that changed.
Who knows if it works over here. Less likely it will than won't - but it's just money. Back end RP money.
It's fine for the price but I was hoping to read more substantial changes than apparently what really happened. KBO offense was down substantially this season (6 players hit 20+ homers) so that certainly helped him.
I completely botched what I typed vs what my brain meant...
I meant pitch quality didn't change, but how he used them.
Again, if the expectation at that price is backend BP arm, who can give you innings as a SP too? Sign a bunch of them till the kids are ready to take that role for min wage.
This just screams of a typical Pitt signing that they get something back for at the trade deadline lol
Found a neat graphic, lots of surprises on there IMO
Graphic link - ( New Window )
Interestingly, the Dodgers and Royals have the same number of World Series Championships in that time frame.
Zero indication either way how it went, no one will say anything lol.
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that contract is probably almost as toxic as marte's.
1 more year of rizzo at 17m.
and $15m of buried/retained $ (donaldson, hicks).
so $200m on 6 players,
$47m of bad $ on dj/rizzo (x3 years for dj),
+50m of projected arb/prearb
and tommy kahnle, their sole veteran RP taking them over $300m. and if im remembering correctly BP was one of their biggest issues last year so they'd probably need to keep spending.
the math is crazy, and martino is saying the same thing and he's as well sourced as anyone w/ yankees right now writing that cashman book. maybe cashman really just says f it (literally) and is all in?
Their bullpen wasn't outstanding but it was more than fine. 9th in era/16th in FIP
the aggregate may look ok (and even that ok is a down year considering they've had the most productive bp in mlb for the last decade) but they blew big games from june on and wore down in the 2nd half (era was more than a half point higher 2nd half than 1st). even last year's mets team which had the least late game comebacks i can ever remember came back on them to steal a split in june.
this was from an article in July, and remember the rumored soto deal has at least 2 or 3 of pieces from last year's mlb bp going to SD. brito and king were each worth about 1.8 fwar combined from a bp that totaled 4.2 fwar.
The bullpen’s recent struggles have been exemplified in three recent, brutal defeats.
On July 5, the Yankees had a chance to win a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles; after winning the first two games, the team took a 2-0 entering the sixth inning when Aaron Boone took the ball from Randy Vazquez and put Ramirez in the game. The Orioles promptly got three straight hits against him, cutting the deficit to 2-1 and resulting in King taking over. King promptly allowed a two-run triple to Jordan Westburg that was also the product of bad defense, and Baltimore took a 3-2 lead in a game they would win 6-3. A blowout win for the Orioles the next day resulted in a series split and a bitter taste in NY’s mouth.
A particularly terrible bullpen performance came on July 9 against the Chicago Cubs, although another poor defensive play started the implosion. After splitting the first two games of a three-game set, the Yankees nursed a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning and were seemingly in cruise control. However, Boone chose to take out Domingo German on a low pitch count after giving up a leadoff walk, replacing him with Hamilton.
After getting the first out, Hamilton allowed a single before inducing a tailor-made double play ball that was booted by Gleyber Torres, loading the bases. Kahnle then entered but failed to strand any of the inherited runners; he traded a run for an out but then allowed a two-run, pinch-hit single to Yan Gomes that tied the game.
Marinaccio and Holmes did the rest in the eighth; Marinaccio loaded the bases with nobody out by allowing a single and two walks. Holmes entered to clean up the mess, but instead allowed a go-ahead sacrifice fly and allowed another run to score on a wild pitch. The Cubs eventually won 7-4 to take the series, leaving the Yankees frustrated as they entered the All-Star break.
But the worst loss of all came on Sunday against the Colorado Rockies, in the finale of a three-game set. With a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth, Kahnle and his microscopic 0.55 ERA entered the game. He surprisingly fell apart and loaded the bases by allowing a walk and two singles, and Boone gave the ball to Holmes. Needing just one out to get out of the jam, Holmes instead allowed a grand slam to C.J. Cron that gave the Rockies a 5-3 lead.
The Yankees fought back to tie the game in the ninth and eventually took a 7-5 lead in the 11th inning, but Ramirez, looking for his first career save, immediately allowed a game-tying, two-run home run to Nolan Jones. He retired the next two batters, but Marinaccio then entered and immediately lost his composure, resulting in a walk-off home run to Alan Trejo, who hadn’t hit a single homer all year until then. The Rockies’ 8-7 win allowed them to take two of three; the Yankees still have yet to win a series in July.
These embarrassing losses, coupled with a still-struggling and inconsistent lineup have contributed to the team falling into last place in the AL East. New York is currently on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.
What's Going on With The New York Yankees' Bullpen? The bullpen, which has kept the Yankees in contention early on, is showing significant wear and tear. - ( New Window )
The absolute most important step for this franchise direction for the next five+ years is what this franchise has been historically horrific at doing. Self evaluation.
It is make or break that they get it, at the right time, which of the kids will make it or not.
The kids break out - they can spend like gang busters the next five years. They keep the wrong ones (ie Dom), they blow it.
How often have the Dodgers regretted trading a kid? They seem to always get it right somehow.
I am a big fan of his, and I would not give him away but I'd trade Pete Alonso if I got a good offer.
2021 Tyler O'Neill sure, I'd make a call, 2022 or 2023 pass unless they're giving him away.
total luxury tax penalties paid by yankees since system started (2002):
first 15 years (02-17) paid on average $20m penalties per year.
under Hal they have reset under lux tax twice and averaged less than $10m per year in penalties.
2023 = official reports arent out yet but based on spotrac i think they went over by $40m, at a 30% rate (2nd year over) which would = 12m in penalties.
if they did go over by almost exactly +40m, they spent right up to the tier where they would have had to start paying the more regressive 42.5% surcharge, which is still 1 level below the cohen tax - i bolded the tier where they paused ahead of more serious penalties.
First year: 20 percent tax on all overages
Second consecutive year: 30 percent
Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent
If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge
so some rough math on 2024 (may not be exactly right, first time ive calculated lux tax forward this way):
they are going into a 3rd year offender which = 50% base rate on any spending beyond 2024 threshold = 237m
so let's say they go to $310m (+73m), here's some rough math:
50% rate for 3rd year offender = $36.5m
12% surcharge between +20-40m = $2.4m
42.5% surcharge between +40-60m = $8.5m
60% surcharge on final + 13m = $8.3m (cohen tax level)
total 2024 luxury tax penalties = 55.7m
previous franchise single season high 2005 = 34m
total luxury tax last 5 years since 2018 combined = 53m
and the $310m may be light if they do get both yamamoto and soto. if they go to $320m, that estimate jumps the penalties to 66m.
and that is just estimating based on on-field payroll (not lux tax payroll which is a different calculation that includes more stuff i didn't include). i dont know where final met payroll ended up but at $340m on field, cohen is projected to have more than $100m in penalties from last year.
New York Yankees luxury tax payments from 2003 to 2022 - ( New Window )