- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
New Window )
Marc Topkin
@TBTimes_Rays
·
8m
Hearing Glasnow extension with #Dodgers is “pretty much” done and just down to “finalizing some small stuff,” so the trade from #Rays (with Margot and $4M for Pepiot and Deluca) should be official soon.
-Passan
BREAKING: Right-hander Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a five-year, $135 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Once the deal is complete, the trade of Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca will be official.
Given that advertisers would want Ohtani and/or Yamamoto to attract the same audience, how much money is going to be left for Yamamoto? Even in the biggest ad market in the country, I don’t think there will be that much.
I think it’s SF-NYY-NYM in that order. I wouldn’t sleep on SF winning the sweepstakes, and Cohen will have to open the checkbook to get him.
My plan for tearing down whatever can be torn down is seeming like a better strategy every day.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
3m
Dodgers-Rays trade nearly complete. Tyler Glasnow has agreed to a four-year, $110M extension with the Dodgers, in addition to the $25M he will earn in 2024, source tells
@TheAthletic
. First:
@JeffPassan
.
My plan for tearing down whatever can be torn down is seeming like a better strategy every day.
Last I heard Bauer had yet to meet with any MLB teams. I can't say I'm consistently inquiring into Trevor Bauer's FA outlook however.
-Passan
BREAKING: Right-hander Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a five-year, $135 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Once the deal is complete, the trade of Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca will be official.
snells cost difference + injury history probably are enough reason to prefer montgomery, especially if that makes it easier to also add a better 2nd SP like imanaga + giolito.
i think snell will have the least competitive market for those same reasons though and if they miss on yamamoto and montgomery i think it becomes a "uh, last year's CY is just sitting there and he's 1 of just 3 SP whos won 2 in the last 5 years...".
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6m
Deal also includes $30M club option for an additional year. If declined, Glasnow can exercise $20M player option.
real question, how many SP options are there left for next year if the mets either decided to punt or stuck out this year?
burnes
bieber (and if he has another down year who knows)
woodruff (if he appears healthy which may be a big if)
anyone else?
Quote:
signs an extension to remain in Japan, would have been a FA after next season. Now will remain in Japan through 2026
real question, how many SP options are there left for next year if the mets either decided to punt or stuck out this year?
burnes
bieber (and if he has another down year who knows)
woodruff (if he appears healthy which may be a big if)
anyone else?
Buehler, Wheeler, Fried
glasnow effectively just got 6x155m or 165m. he wasnt open market and montgomery has the more reliable track record so id take the over on that for montgomery. especially knowing there are 7 teams in line for yamamoto so 6 are going to be on the rebound. he really only needs 2 to be aggressive and sfg, bos, nym seem like good candidates to continue aggressively on rebound if they miss.
6x170m maybe becomes a landing spot. his median was 5x25m but post-glasnow i would think the median would bump up to 5x150m at least. e-rod got 1 less year than his median but +2m higher aav.
Quote:
In comment 16324618 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
signs an extension to remain in Japan, would have been a FA after next season. Now will remain in Japan through 2026
real question, how many SP options are there left for next year if the mets either decided to punt or stuck out this year?
burnes
bieber (and if he has another down year who knows)
woodruff (if he appears healthy which may be a big if)
anyone else?
Buehler, Wheeler, Fried
forgot fried he is a good one. buehler is a good one, he will be about 20 months post TJS to start this year.
id be good with a wheeler reunion but he'll be entering his a35 so a little buyer beware there. or maybe he comes back to fully realized his aj burnett comp.
Since OD 2021 only 16 pitchers have posted a higher fWAR than Montgomery (Gray right behind him) 9 pitchers have made more starts (Giolito one of them) and Giolito (524.1) Montgomery (524.2) #16 and #17 in baseball in innings pitched
Since OD 2021 only 16 pitchers have posted a higher fWAR than Montgomery (Gray right behind him) 9 pitchers have made more starts (Giolito one of them) and Giolito (524.1) Montgomery (524.2) #16 and #17 in baseball in innings pitched
ive posted this leaderboard a few times but it helps show how few quality SP there are league wide.
with nola, montgomery, snell, gray, ohtani/woodruff (inj.) almost 1/3 of the top 20 pitchers from the past 3 years were UFA this offseason.
yamamoto, imanaga 2 additional options, and giolito a 3rd who isnt far off this list. e-rod also not far off.
plus glasnow/cease/burnes on trade market.
if stearns cant secure some quality SP this offseason out of all the choices that will be a "yikes". there will not be an offseason with more options than this one.
i dont love snell, id choose montgomery over him assuming there does end up a 30m-50m price difference. i just wouldnt close door on him either. they may end up needing each other. other than the walks/injuries there is a lot to like. higher velocity than montgomery and has similarly pitched for winning teams in hard divisions against teams like nyy, lad, sfg, tor, etc. 3.3 era/3.9 fip in 10 postseason starts w/ 11k/9.
top 10 remaining FA SP
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Imanaga
5. Giolito
6. Stroman
7. Clevinger
8. Lorenzen
9. Manaea
10. Montas
(@keithlaw) (I'm skipping Kershaw) 1. Yamamoto 2. Montgomery 3. Snell 4. Stroman 5. Imanaga 6. Clevinger 7. Giolito 8. Lorenzen 9. Manaea 10. Heaney
1. PHI - wheeler + nola = 5.9 + 3.9 = 9.8
2. MIN - gray + lopez = 5.3 + 4.5 = 9.8
3. SEA - castilla + kirby = 4.4 + 3.4 = 7.7
so especially if you still have enough in the budget for a quality #3 ahead of quintana/severino, all of a sudden the rotation takes a big step forward with either, both same age as senga too (all born within 60 days of each other).
randomly surprising as "down" as JV was last year, he ended up the 22nd most valuable SP and basically being worth as much as Senga (3.3 fwar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0 - ( New Window )
(@keithlaw) (I'm skipping Kershaw) 1. Yamamoto 2. Montgomery 3. Snell 4. Stroman 5. Imanaga 6. Clevinger 7. Giolito 8. Lorenzen 9. Manaea 10. Heaney
Heaney isn't a FA, he had guys like Canha on there who isn't either. So he has the top 9 in his top 50, no other SP
mentions SFG for snell which seems like a very good fit if they can get barry zito memories out of their heads.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/14/sports/mets-yankees-eying-japans-shota-imanaga-as-fallback-option/ - ( New Window )
What a strange career he's had.
And an even odder signing for a team like the Royals.
Seems like they are signing guys to flip at the deadline lol
Quote:
sign Wacha
What a strange career he's had.
And an even odder signing for a team like the Royals.
Seems like they are signing guys to flip at the deadline lol
i dont know why more small market teams dont do that when in the rebuild cycle.
Evan Grant
@Evan_P_Grant
Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc yesterday
Quote:
sign Wacha
What a strange career he's had.
And an even odder signing for a team like the Royals.
Seems like they are signing guys to flip at the deadline lol
Royals quietly are a hot pick for a breakout in 2024 believe it or not.
Verified
@JeffWilsonTXR
Max Scherzer had surgery Thursday in Dallas for a herniated disc. Out until June or July. #Rangers
Young acknowledges they are in contact with Montgomery
Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer is not a bad top 4 at all.
Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer is not a bad top 4 at all.
Where’s the workhorse? Which of those guys can you pencil in for 150, yet alone 200 IP?
It’s just an odd approach. IMO
Verified
@JeffWilsonTXR
Max Scherzer had surgery Thursday in Dallas for a herniated disc. Out until June or July. #Rangers
Young acknowledges they are in contact with Montgomery
i like max and i hope he makes it back but herniated disc for a guy at his age i will take the over on 6-7 months.
Quote:
rotation
Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer is not a bad top 4 at all.
Where’s the workhorse? Which of those guys can you pencil in for 150, yet alone 200 IP?
It’s just an odd approach. IMO
How many workhorses are available on the FA market in their price range? Lyles isn't great but he's averaged 179 innings per season since 2021, one of the highest marks in baseball . Would not surprise me at all to see KC challenge for the playoffs in such a weak division.
@ByJackHarris
·
12m
With this AAV number on the reported Tyler Glasnow extension, believe the Dodgers CBT payroll is now up to around $250M for next season
That's well past the first $237M luxury tax threshold. The next two thresholds are at $257M (62% tax charge) and $277M (92.5% tax charge)
Quote
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
1h
Replying to @Ken_Rosenthal
The 4/110 is new money. Parties agreed to adjust the $25M that Glasnow has coming in 2024 so that it is a $10M signing bonus and $15M salary. Enables Dodgers to make it a five-year deal for purposes of the luxury tax. Lowers AAV from $27.5M to $27M.
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
Will be interesting to see if Dodgers push that third 92.5% threshold (especially if they're serious about getting Yamamoto)
They are saving a lot of real cash the next two seasons thanks to Ohtani deferrals. We'll see if that makes them more willing to take on tax payments
Agreed Jon! Down with Shecky!
Jon Heyman
Verified
@JonHeyman
·
3m
Royals have added Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Kyle Wright. Much improved team is nearing or at their limit of free agent $ but may still consider trades.
There’s also a chance this works out for everyone — Glasnow has his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers sprinkle their fairy dust on Margot and he and Heyward combine for 5 wins in right field, while Pepiot becomes a mid-rotation starter and Deluca develops into a regular. I just see wide ranges of possible outcomes for three of the players, all but Margot, and that increases the risk for everyone involved.
nsiap but didnt realize he also already posted the mets way back on 11/16:
some solid zips offensive projections on vientos + baty.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-new-york-mets/ - ( New Window )
There’s also a chance this works out for everyone — Glasnow has his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers sprinkle their fairy dust on Margot and he and Heyward combine for 5 wins in right field, while Pepiot becomes a mid-rotation starter and Deluca develops into a regular. I just see wide ranges of possible outcomes for three of the players, all but Margot, and that increases the risk for everyone involved.
i think LA is partially expecting they have the depth to treat Glasnow just like Kershaw, where they only need 20 starts out him and can rest him when necessary as long as he's healthy for playoffs.
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
Normally I’d look askance at the Royals “splurge” but you can literally buy your way into AL Central contention for 105 million so…
Mark Feinsand
Verified
@Feinsand
·
1m
Yuki Matsui, a five-time NPB All-Star lefty reliever, visited the Cardinals in St. Louis on Thursday, per sources. The 28-year-old has 236 saves and a 2.43 ERA in 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles and is considered one of the better free-agent bullpen options.
so mets are probably about 15-16 wins above replacement behind atlanta factoring in severino + lopez.
yamamoto/snell/montgomery are the big fish out there with gains between 3-4 wins each,
LF is an obvious opportunity to add 1-2 wins,
bullpen should add 1-2 wins with a couple good signings,
add another sp with a net gain of 1-2 wins.
so net/net mets will probably start about 5-10 projected wins above replacement behind atlanta but probably comfortably ahead of miami. will add philly when they get published, i would think philly will be ahead of mets and closer to atl.
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
Dodgers $100+ million pitching contracts, all-time:
Kevin Brown - 7 years, $105m in 1998
Zack Greinke - 6/$147m in 2012
Clayton Kershaw - 7/$215m in 2014
Trevor Bauer - 3/$102m in 2021
Shohei Ohtani - 10/$700m
Tyler Glasnow - 4/$110m (in new money)
Washed? Still young for baseball but needs to get healthy? Somewhere in the middle?
I have to believe he's available and if the Met do land pitching I would be interested.
Do you view him as just stay away, or would you be interested in the right deal?
Washed? Still young for baseball but needs to get healthy? Somewhere in the middle?
I have to believe he's available and if the Met do land pitching I would be interested.
Do you view him as just stay away, or would you be interested in the right deal?
back stuff scares me and 35m x 7 years left so the contract is considered very under water.
sort of like yelich if they take back marte's deal and maybe kick in a little bit of cash, then maybe its worth throwing them some not elite vanity prospects (ramirez, parada) in a package hoping to get 2-3 good years in the short term.
yelich has a lot less money left, same age, fewer years, so i think that one is a little simpler to find an even swap.