NFT: Mets Thread - Happy Winter Meetings To All!!!

In comment 16327813 Ten Ton Hammer said:

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Cohen made the effort to go see him in japan and he is returning the courtesy. I doubt he has made up his mind but taking into account japanese culture this isn't surprising.

its a curveball in that i've not heard of any owner doing it before with any other fa, so it's unique.

we've heard scherzer, verlander, stearns talk about having spoken with alex/steve cohen during their free agency processes but this is the first time we've heard of an owner both traveling to the player's home country and then dining at cohen's house. it sounds more like nick saban in the weeks before national signing day.

confident they will sign one of JDM or Turner to a short term deal. They have also spoken to Soler but Soler is looking for 4 years.

willing to "listen" on their young pitchers looking for "impact bats" with years of control. Unless Seattle loves McNeil (and you aren't getting a young cost controlled SP for Jeff McNeil at 32 years old), the Mets don't really match up with them.

Not sure if I feel like dodging a bullet with a contract to a mysterious player who I know little about or the ridicule and off season defeat of losing Yamamoto to the competition.

Ex-@mets 1st round pick Kumar Rocker ranked #9 on @BaseballAmerica's top 10 Rangers prospects calling finishing with "he could fit in the middle of the rotation with the fall back of a nasty late-inning reliever."

SF has significant OF depth/overcrowding. Austin Slater has a career 108 wRC+ (110 this season), can play all 3 OF positions and mashes lefties (131 wRC+ career). Downside... pending FA, but he's also the kind of player you likely can extend for reasonably cheaply #Mets

remains interested in Hoskins per Morosi.

to bring down the CBT penalties, the yankees would make sense for that.

their current tax bill pre-yamamoto is projected at $32m by cots right now. already almost their highest ever.

a yamamoto contract would get taxed at a 50% base rate, and then the first $10m of yamamoto's deal would be at a 45% surcharge rate and the remainder ($20m+?) at the 60% cohen tax as a 3rd time repeater (110% tax overall).

so even at $30m AAV that = $32m or so in tax. plus the $50m+ posting fee beyond that.

so in real dollars yamamoto costs them about $110m in 2024, plus the additional $300m+ over the rest of the contract beyond this year.

for illustrative purposes here's how that looks tracking with their past 20 years of tax penalties and while roughly drawn it is to scale. orange is yamamoto penalty on top of current
and does not include posting fee.



the penalty would continue to rise with any additional moves they make now or inseason $2.10 for every dollar spent.

maybe he wants nyy so badly he does some kind of ohtani contract with massive deferrals, but im in the 'believe it when i see it' category.

In comment 16328068 DanMetroMan said:

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remains interested in Hoskins per Morosi.

thats a good fit.

the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”

In comment 16328098 DanMetroMan said:

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the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”

yea but those were the years before Cohen took over.

The way Yamamotos contract has seemingly skyrocketed.

1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong?
2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate?
3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)?
4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down?

The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well.

Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?

In comment 16328128 Shecky said:

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The way Yamamotos contract has seemingly skyrocketed. 1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong? 2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate? 3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)? 4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down? The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well. Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?

Boras ask for Soto will be no lower than 461 (Ohtani got 460) and you have to assume will open his ask at over 500.

release Carpenter. They basically pulled the Flexen/Gott move. Kerr is probably better than Gott however

In comment 16328128 Shecky said:

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The way Yamamotos contract has seemingly skyrocketed. 1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong? 2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate? 3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)? 4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down? The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well. Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?

I would assume Boras is going to try to make up for it with Alonso. meh

interview with Jonah Tong
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 16328098 DanMetroMan said:

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the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”

if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year.

boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV.

soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav.

a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.

In comment 16328130 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 16328128 Shecky said: Quote: The way Yamamotos contract has seemingly skyrocketed. 1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong? 2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate? 3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)? 4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down? The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well. Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet? Boras ask for Soto will be no lower than 461 (Ohtani got 460) and you have to assume will open his ask at over 500.

I'm more surprised that people have forgotten that the reason the Nats traded Soto in the first place was that he turned down a $440M+ extension offer.

Why are people surprised two years later that his ask will almost certainly exceed $500M- he telegraphed that 2 years ago.

think it's less so anybody forgot, and more so he posted 7.0 fWAR at 22 years old. The past 2 seasons (by his standards) haven't been quite as good (2022 in particular). He's a future HOFer and an absolute monster but that and playing out west likely impacted the view of some.

In comment 16328128 Shecky said:

Quote:

The way Yamamotos contract has seemingly skyrocketed. 1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong? 2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate? 3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)? 4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down? The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well. Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?

1. i think some of the misalignment is teams publicizing offers that include posting fee because to them it's real money, but for writers projections its not. The median projection on Yamamoto was 8x216m (28m aav), but that didn't include the posting fee so just add that and you are at 250-260m. so if we account for just that, the delta between projections and where things are now at least with the reported offers from SFG/BOS is basically just and extra year or 2.

2. the highest current reports are unclear on whether or not that posting fee is included. the highest projection is bowden's most recent 9x$304m (34m aav) which doesn't include posting fee. So the highest recent projection is +80m from the original. big increase yes. i havent seen any speculation other than eno that it could be heading to 10x350m with a $50m posting fee or a full 11x400m + posting fee on top, though for mets i think they've push this so far it would not surprise me bc it is relatively justifiable even on the ROI.

3. there are 2 things that have fundamentally skyrocketed this bidding war:

a) ohtani cash deferrals
b) yankees staying in post-ohtani (in nov hank was saying "you dont need a 300m payroll" and even a couple weeks ago martino was reporting the yankees probably couldn't do both soto/yamamoto

take LAD/NYY out and whoever gets him probably does so around +2 years over projection. Still a big increase but it's rare for a 25 year old to hit FA.

4. Soto is imo the key domino in all this. he will hit FA next year at age 26 just as big of a unicorn. perhaps bigger since he is 100% proven and plays every day. A big year for him and that deal is going over $500m+ easy.

re the last thing, Rosenthal wrote an article over the weekend pointing out that right now Boras' biggest contract is just 8th highest in MLB. once yamamoto off the board to 1 of the NY teams or LAD he will get bellinger and snell good deals but at best they are starting with 2's not 3's. Boras' moment is going to be Soto next year and he is going to milk it for all it is worth. he is going to look to 'white knight' the status quo and re-establish a new record setting deal.

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He’s No. 8! (But only for the moment) Here’s something that might surprise you: Agent Scott Boras’ biggest current contract, Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million deal with the Phillies, ranks only eighth in total value. The top seven guarantees belong to Shohei Ohtani ($700 million), Mike Trout ($426.5 million), Mookie Betts ($365 million), Aaron Judge ($360 million), Manny Machado ($350 million), Francisco Lindor ($341 million) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($340 million). Factor in deferrals and Ohtani’s present-day value ($437.8 million according to the players’ union) is still the highest. Lindor, at $332 million, is just above Harper, Betts at $306.7 million just below. Free-agent right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemingly stands a chance of passing Harper as well, not that Boras is suffering. He has negotiated five of the 10 highest average annual values in major-league history, for Max Scherzer ($43.3 million), Gerrit Cole ($36 million), Carlos Correa ($35.1 million), Stephen Strasburg ($35 million) and Anthony Rendon ($35 million). And of course, Boras represents Juan Soto, who will hit the open market at 26 next winter and is a good bet to surpass Ohtani for the highest present-day value.

https://theathletic.com/5144998/2023/12/17/yankees-yoshinobu-yamamoto-ohtani-rosenthal/ - ( New Window )

In comment 16328144 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 16328098 DanMetroMan said: Quote: the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years” if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year. boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV. soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav. a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.

Yankees fan here. I don't want to hijack the thread but they won't necessarily need to make that choice.

The Yankees have ~$40-50M coming off the books after this year. Even in a down year they made about $80M more than the next highest team (LAD). If they have a good year with Soto, attendance will be a little higher and that extra $ + what's coming off the books would cover Soto's next contract. The question though is whether or not they'll be willing to give it to him. That we'll have to wait and see.

Of course, YY and a Soto extension would be the last big money moves they'd make for a couple of years so would have to rely on the farm/player development to fill holes and to make trades to acquire cost-controlled talent.

they could get creative and defer some of the money to the latter years of the contract when DJLM, Stanton and Rodon are off the books.

In comment 16328193 Strahan91 said:

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they could get creative and defer some of the money to the latter years of the contract when DJLM, Stanton and Rodon are off the books.

Just to clarify backloading has no impact on the CBT, it's average salary over the length of the contract. Sure, they can defer money like Ohtani did but that was likely a 1 of 1 situation given Ohtani's off field value world wide. Nobody comes close.

If a team gives a player 10 years 500 million, he's salary for CBT purposes is 50 million whether he gets 50 per year or 1 for the first 9 and then 499.

In comment 16328144 Eric on Li said:

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In comment 16328098 DanMetroMan said: Quote: the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years” if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year. boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV. soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav. a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.

The Yanks are better off waiting on a Soto extension until later. Consider this- Soto already counts for $32M for luxury tax purposes for 2024. If the Yanks go to $50M, that's really only a $18M increase in luxury tax dollars.

Remember that they have some real money coming off the books soon.

If the Yanks are going to re-sign Soto, that almost certainly means that Rizzo and his $20M (for luxury tax purposes) will be let go in FA.

Gleybar and his estimated $15M would almost certainly leave in FA as well.

Once Dominguez is fully recovered (likely in 2025), he will go to CF and push Verdugo and his estimated $9M out the door.

Kahnle ($5.75M) and Holmes (estimated $5.5M) will also likely be let go in the off-season, as the Yanks new practice of letting expensive relievers go continues.

Bottom line- people are making too much of Soto's future ask and the potential of a big new contract for a SP.

estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture.

CBA also changed how CBT was calculated post trades. It's now the entirety of the remaining money regardless of how it's been paid out. If a small market team is paying a guy 5 and then 25, then his CBT is recalculated. So his CBT # is 15 regardless of the payment "lay out".

(FA only)

Free agent spending this winter, by team:

Dodgers: $717M
Phillies: $172M
Diamondbacks: $122M
Giants: $113M
Royals: $105M
Cardinals: $99M
Reds: $87M
Tigers: $42.75M
Braves: $30M
Rangers: $26.5M
Mets: $18M
White Sox: $16.75M
Orioles: $13M
Astros: $12M
Brewers: $10.25M
Angels: $6.8M
Guardians: $4.75M
Nationals: $4.25M
Pirates: $3.2M
A’s: $1.5M
Rays: $1.1M
Red Sox: $1M
Blue Jays: $0
Cubs: $0
Mariners: $0
Marlins: $0
Padres: $0
Rockies: $0
Twins: $0
Yankees: $0

In comment 16328209 DanMetroMan said:

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(FA only) Free agent spending this winter, by team: Dodgers: $717M Phillies: $172M Diamondbacks: $122M Giants: $113M Royals: $105M Cardinals: $99M Reds: $87M Tigers: $42.75M Braves: $30M Rangers: $26.5M Mets: $18M White Sox: $16.75M Orioles: $13M Astros: $12M Brewers: $10.25M Angels: $6.8M Guardians: $4.75M Nationals: $4.25M Pirates: $3.2M A’s: $1.5M Rays: $1.1M Red Sox: $1M Blue Jays: $0 Cubs: $0 Mariners: $0 Marlins: $0 Padres: $0 Rockies: $0 Twins: $0 Yankees: $0

Funny thing is that just signing Yamamoto would vault whoever signs him (including the Yanks) into second place on that list- almost double that of third place.

In comment 16328201 DanMetroMan said:

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estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture.

Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028.

shopping Darvish's contract. He has a full no-trade, 37 years old and was shut down due to an elbow issue. I have my doubts even a Yankees, Mets, Dodgers etc would take on 5x78 million even if it meant a good prospect. At 37 years old, 5 seasons left on his deal, already 1 TJ, has to be real concern that ends up being close to a 78 million dollar paper weight. I say that as a long time major Darvish fan.

In comment 16328211 Strahan91 said:

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In comment 16328201 DanMetroMan said: Quote: estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture. Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028.

That doesn't help in terms of luxury tax. The AAV of the deal is how the CBT hit is calculated. Ohtani's situation is different, he got deferred money that kicks in after his contract expires. What you're suggesting is back loading. Low salary that escalates. That wouldn't help in terms of the CBT. His total contract is how is computed.

In comment 16328217 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 16328211 Strahan91 said: Quote: In comment 16328201 DanMetroMan said: Quote: estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture. Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028. That doesn't help in terms of luxury tax. The AAV of the deal is how the CBT hit is calculated. Ohtani's situation is different, he got deferred money that kicks in after his contract expires. What you're suggesting is back loading. Low salary that escalates. That wouldn't help in terms of the CBT. His total contract is how is computed.

We're saying the same thing. Paying him less in the next few years frees up cash to pay down the tax. Regardless, the Yankees are in a position to reset the tax by 2028 so it removes some of the pain of paying the tax in the short term.

the Mets sign Blake Snell, 5 years 150 million, and pay him 5, 5, 5, 5, 130, his CBT hit while he's a member of the Mets would annually be 30 million.

In comment 16328190 Strahan91 said:

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In comment 16328144 Eric on Li said: Quote: In comment 16328098 DanMetroMan said: Quote: the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years” if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year. boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV. soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav. a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI. Yankees fan here. I don't want to hijack the thread but they won't necessarily need to make that choice. The Yankees have ~$40-50M coming off the books after this year. Even in a down year they made about $80M more than the next highest team (LAD). If they have a good year with Soto, attendance will be a little higher and that extra $ + what's coming off the books would cover Soto's next contract. The question though is whether or not they'll be willing to give it to him. That we'll have to wait and see. Of course, YY and a Soto extension would be the last big money moves they'd make for a couple of years so would have to rely on the farm/player development to fill holes and to make trades to acquire cost-controlled talent.

i get the revenue argument, but i think the scale of the revenue doesn't equal the scale of how much more tax the yankees would be committing to in the 4 years before the end of the stanton contract.

judge (40m)
+ cole (36m)
+ rodon (27m)
+ stanton (22m)
+ let's say $75m per year for yama/soto (which may be light)

= 200m for 6 players for at minimum 4 years (this is assuming both soto extension next year and yankees giving cole his extra year).

the CBT peaks at $244m in 2026 so with benefits and even only minimum salaries other than those 6 there would be literally no way to get under it over those 4 years, so it is 4 years of 3 year repeater tax level.

now add for the next 2 years, almost $30m per year more is on lemahieu and retained money from hicks/donaldson. and another 17m on rizzo this year.

then next year torres needs an extension, cortes in 2 years, so when that bad money comes off there is new money coming right behind it.

add all that up and id be pretty confident guessing that signing yamamoto and soto locks in a $300m+ payroll for at least the 4 years with stanton, which means 60m+ luxury tax bills each of those years, not just this year. and it may even be beyond those 4 years because Stanton at 22m in CBT isn't even that significant.

maybe the plan is to go all in for those 4 years that judge is still judge and cole is still cole, but that is going to be an insanely expensive all in because id imagine they still need to spend on more in other places and even a $5m contract turns into $10m out the door.

and the cherry on top is that the last big piece to extend (soto) will be the hardest with boras squeezing every ounce to set a new record.

it's possible cashman sees this group as his last stand and figures go big or go home. if he gets it accomplished he will have sold Hal on a several hundred million dollar all in. not impossible but i think it's much more likely to end up 1 of soto/yamamoto not both.

repeater tax is where the real damage is done. Back to back seasons and it's a 30% tax and 3 or more seasons... 50%! Which is why you likely won't even see Cohen doing that if he can avoid it. That's a monster penalty even before getting into the picks

of 7 playoff series that go more than 4 games = the owners get 100% of the game after game 4 so you have to believe there are owners who hope they team wins (obviously) but over 7 games.

In comment 16328234 DanMetroMan said:

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of 7 playoff series that go more than 4 games = the owners get 100% of the game after game 4 so you have to believe there are owners who hope they team wins (obviously) but over 7 games.

*gate

is still quite a bit higher than it was in George's heyday. Doesn't mean Hal will go for it but it's not unchartered territory for the team.

Also, there's little to no chance the Yankees bring back Torres after this year at what he's likely to get. Cortes is also unlikely but if he has a down year or gets hurt maybe they give him some cheap flier deal.

More likely is that Ben Rice gets a shot at first base next year along with LeMahieu (or my favorite idea, they try to move Spencer Jones there if they resign Soto), Vivas takes over for Torres at 2nd and Peraza moves to third (or SS and Volpe goes to third). And then trade some of the redundancy in the farm to get more pitching to round out the rotation and pen.

Leiter didn't make BA's top 10 prospects for the Rangers. There apparently is ample evidence that the TrackMan device that Vandy used to track his numbers was not properly (or purposely so) calibrated incorrectly which boosted his data beyond what it really was.

projects Gurriel to be worth 41.1 million over the next season and he got... 42.

In comment 16328221 Strahan91 said:

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In comment 16328217 DanMetroMan said: Quote: In comment 16328211 Strahan91 said: Quote: In comment 16328201 DanMetroMan said: Quote: estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture. Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028. That doesn't help in terms of luxury tax. The AAV of the deal is how the CBT hit is calculated. Ohtani's situation is different, he got deferred money that kicks in after his contract expires. What you're suggesting is back loading. Low salary that escalates. That wouldn't help in terms of the CBT. His total contract is how is computed. We're saying the same thing. Paying him less in the next few years frees up cash to pay down the tax. Regardless, the Yankees are in a position to reset the tax by 2028 so it removes some of the pain of paying the tax in the short term.

you are taking several unlikely leaps.

1. paying extra tax is paying extra tax. deferring salary can help for cash flow, sure, just like making minimum payments on a credit card helps cash flow. doesn't make it smart.

2. if you are starting the negotiation for the biggest contract in mlb history with scott boras, it's unlikely those discussions are opening positively with big deferrals. the nationals tried that and he shot down 15x$440m 2.5 years ago.

3. as dan said, ohtani is 1/1. the only reason the credit card argument works with them is that he deferred so much of the $ and they are bringing in so much extra endorsement $. and they just reset their lux tax. and their ownership is literally financial services guys. expecting either or both of yamamoto/soto to do anything like that seems unlikely and nyy are starting from a totally different base.

even resetting the tax by 2028 would be far from a given. you would have 178m on the books with the big 5 (minus stanton), but dominguez is in his arb 3 (verdugo's arb3 is 9.2m so in 4 years if dominguez works out in cf he eat up most of the $ stanton frees up), cortes/trevino/torres/holmes (and entire BP really) are either paid or gone. resetting may not be possible until 2029 when rodon and stanton are both expired.

In comment 16328244 DanMetroMan said:

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projects Gurriel to be worth 41.1 million over the next season and he got... 42.

we talked about the Darvish projection but zips has yamamoto's zips at 3.7 fwar for 2024.

let's say over a 12 year contract he has 10 years averaging half of win below that at 3.2 fwar.

that's a ~$300m zips projection too. im not sure what their aging curve is for pitchers, maybe im a little overaggressive, but id imagine at least the next 6-8 they would project at or higher than the 3.7. senga's zip for 2024 is 3.9 for his age 31.

guess is the Yankees see this as a very special case and will sign Yamamoto and probably retain Soto. In Soto's case, after next season. Very informally, I asked a few of the writers (who actually responded to me...) who they thought Yamamoto would sign with a 3 of the 4 said Yankees, 1 said LAD. All 4 guessed the Mets would make the highest bid but Yamamoto would go elsewhere.

I tend to agree. Assuming Will Sammon is correct (and I have no reason to feel otherwise), the Mets ticket sales are likely going to be dismal this season. Hard to see a realistic scenario (outside of course them "shocking the world" and being far better than their roster would indicate) but Cohen obviously knows the numbers better than I do, ticket sales for 1 season vs. resetting the lux tax... presumably the second one is a bigger concern to him.


The Mets drew 32,994 per home game in 2023 (a good% of that was probably impacted by pre-season optimism in the team) and even then that was 11th in baseball, barely more than teams like the Brewers, seems likely they are bottom half of the league in attendance in 2024.

just curious to see where yankees would have fallen after netting a payroll that would have been about +30m, +35-40m in extra taxes, and +50m in posting fee.

maybe some small amount of that is deferrable, but they are looking at spending $100m more this year so even if revenues go up i think they'd fall behind whoever was 2nd on that list.

and that is all before a soto extension.

In comment 16328262 DanMetroMan said:

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guess is the Yankees see this as a very special case and will sign Yamamoto and probably retain Soto. In Soto's case, after next season. Very informally, I asked a few of the writers (who actually responded to me...) who they thought Yamamoto would sign with a 3 of the 4 said Yankees, 1 said LAD. All 4 guessed the Mets would make the highest bid but Yamamoto would go elsewhere. I tend to agree. Assuming Will Sammon is correct (and I have no reason to feel otherwise), the Mets ticket sales are likely going to be dismal this season. Hard to see a realistic scenario (outside of course them "shocking the world" and being far better than their roster would indicate) but Cohen obviously knows the numbers better than I do, ticket sales for 1 season vs. resetting the lux tax... presumably the second one is a bigger concern to him. The Mets drew 32,994 per home game in 2023 (a good% of that was probably impacted by pre-season optimism in the team) and even then that was 11th in baseball, barely more than teams like the Brewers, seems likely they are bottom half of the league in attendance in 2024.

i think writers are missing the scope of the potential pain for nyy.

what if cohen offers yamamoto a big signing bonus that's day 1 cash? if i were him that's 100% what i'd do. along with an intentionally higher AAV that passes cole and adds as much as possible to their luxury tax in the short term. id structure an offer to push them into maximum immediate pain not just here but in 12 months with boras/soto. any restructuring to defer to that pain is a worse deal for yamamoto.

this is a rare situation where a higher aav hurts the other team more than cohen. yamamoto may still well choose another team or another team may be willing to match the $, LAD is definitely low enough presently they can do that if that want without a ton of pain. but for nyy how much would anyone expect him to leave on the table? $30m? $50m?

YY would take the biggest offer and because Cohen is the richest man in baseball, that would come from the Mets. But I think it's a bit of simplistic view--especially at the high numbers currently being discussed. You may be right and the Mets may just blow other teams out of the water and YY sign there, but I think your view of Cohen's wealth is giving you a bit of tunnel vision.

In comment 16328277 Eric on Li said:

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just curious to see where yankees would have fallen after netting a payroll that would have been about +30m, +35-40m in extra taxes, and +50m in posting fee. maybe some small amount of that is deferrable, but they are looking at spending $100m more this year so even if revenues go up i think they'd fall behind whoever was 2nd on that list. and that is all before a soto extension.

Only 2022, 2023 isn't out yet in full (just ticket sales estimate) but if you click each team you'll see those details. Not included here is the Starr insurance uniform patch (~$25M/year) which I believe is the largest of any MLB team patch deal.

Ticket sales were down last year (for obvious reasons) by ~$66M which is likely to be what's precipitated the willingness to spend this offseason. Also worth noting, the highest the Yankees ever made from ticket sales was ~$400M which was the year they won the WS after going on the big spending spree with CC, Teixeira, etc. Lowest at the new stadium was ~$230M in 2016, the last time they missed the playoffs.
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With the pitching market what it is right now - If it's a pure salary dump by the Pads - I'd take Darvish without blinking an eye.

He's still as good as all the other $15mm a year arms.

In comment 16328308 Shecky said:

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With the pitching market what it is right now - If it's a pure salary dump by the Pads - I'd take Darvish without blinking an eye. He's still as good as all the other $15mm a year arms.

He very well may need a second TJ. If he were healthy plenty of teams would be interested. His season ended with a stress reaction to his elbow.

"An olecranon stress reaction is a developing stress fracture at the "point" of the elbow. Presumably, the Padres' medical staff wanted to shut Darvish down before getting to the fracture.

Darvish, 37, finishes the year 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA (90 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings. The 0.7 WAR is his lowest mark since his disastrous 2018 season.

Compounding matters for the Padres is they signed him to a six-year, $108 million extension prior to this season. That's a deal that runs through Darvish's age-41 season.

It should be noted that there's a chance Darvish could bounce back. He could heal from this stress issue by spring training and have a full 2024. I mentioned the disaster of a season Darvish had in 2018. He bounced back with a much better season in 2019 before finishing second in NL Cy Young voting in 2020. "