- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
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From pre-2023 Scouting Report: Castaneda pitches from the first base side of the rubber and tends to fly open early. He delivers the ball with a long arm swing in the back that moves into a three-quarters slot, and he throws a fastball in the low 90s that touches 94 mph. He keeps hitters off balance by throwing his offspeed stuff more than his fastball. The pitch that draws the most praise is his low-80s splitter, which kills spin and has late tumble when it's on to miss bats, though it's the pitch he has most trouble commanding. Castaneda also throws an average changeup primarily against lefties. His slider improved in 2022 and he has feel to spin it, typically in the 2,600-2,700 rpm range, with enough movement to get empty swings against righties. Castaneda isn't wild, but especially for a pitcher with a hittable fastball, he will need to tighten his command after he walked 10% of batters last year.
The Future: Castaneda has developed as a starter, though there's a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could find a role pitching backwards and giving hitters a different look in low-leverage situations. He'll return to Triple-A and could make his debut by the end of 2023.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 40. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Splitter: 55. Control: 45.
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On the 40 now. I’d still probably pickup Patino (DFA’ed by Chicago) more interesting than Garrett
garrett, bickford, short can all go. i assume milwaukee didnt want the salary, but drew smith getting swapped for more useful spare pieces not unlike yesterdays trade is another. 2 more IL spots eventually coming back also so they just need to preplan those maneuvers. presumably those spots will go to 2 arms on ST invites.
Patino hasn't been very good but he just turned 24 in October and was a top 25 prospect in baseball a few years ago
ospect Rankings
Baseball America Pre-2019 #67
Pre-2020 #18
Pre-2021 #23
Baseball America: The best source for minor league news and info
Major League Baseball Pre-2019 #48
Pre-2020 #27
Pre-2021 #19
Prospect ratings from Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com
Baseball Prospectus Pre-2019 #74
Pre-2020 #15
Pre-2021 #25
Prospect ratings from Baseball Prospectus
Futures Game
So this seems like guy they could bring in and dump if he stinks
Link - ( New Window )
The same could be said these days about Houser. But Houser’s success is much more dependent on one pitch: his sinker. According to Baseball Savant’s run value statistic, Houser’s sinker is the ninth-best pitch in baseball. Houser can still have trouble against left-handed batters, but his four-seam fastball is faring much better against them this season. His 59 percent groundball rate is by far the highest among pitchers in baseball who have thrown at least 120 innings, and Houser has unquestionably benefited from the Brewers’ improved defense; his strikeout numbers resemble last year’s. Similar to Lauer, Houser can sometimes suddenly lose command — with his pitches running more horizontally than desired — which leads to walks after a few dominant innings in a given start, presenting the look of someone who is enigmatic. But the overall numbers have been strong.
“Adrian is having a really nice season,” Counsell said. “Just look at the numbers, look at the body of work. It’s clearly a step forward if you measure it over a season’s length. He’s getting better. As much as anything, it’s experience. I think his sinker is better this year. That pitch is a better pitch this year and there’s a lot of metrics that bear that out. It’s been a more effective pitch. Everything else gets lumped in there; command and secondary pitches.”
Another good one from Sammon from 2020:
https://theathletic.com/1985559/2020/08/10/what-a-long-way-hes-come-adrian-houser-might-be-ready-to-take-center-stage/
“In my mind, as the fourth player in the deal, it was like, ‘We can march this guy into Double A and give him to Chris Hook,’” Minasian said, “and say, ‘Hookie, have at him. See what you can do with this guy.’”
Plenty, it turns out.
Hook was Biloxi’s pitching coach in 2015. He’s now in his second year as the Brewers’ pitching coach. In other words, he’s seen the evolution of Houser from throw-in trade piece to perhaps the Brewers’ second-best starting pitcher.
Hook first saw Houser pitch in a doubleheader in 2015 with Hader. After watching them pitch for the first time, he thought to himself, “This is going to be fantastic.”
In Houser’s case, it’s taken some time. He had a 5.25 ERA while pitching for Biloxi in 2016. In July of that year, he underwent Tommy John surgery. At that point, MLB.com ranked him as the Brewers’ 17th-best prospect. In 2018, he had a 5.03 ERA across 78 2/3 innings combined in Double A and Triple A.
While pitching in and out of the Brewers’ rotation last season, Houser began using his sinker with more conviction. In 35 appearances, including 18 starts, Houser recorded a 3.72 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. He struck out 117, which equated to 9.5 strikeouts every nine innings. His previous best in any full professional season was 8.4, but that was in rookie ball in 2012 while he was still with the Astros.
The peripherals and advanced statistics pointed to a potential breakout in 2020. Last year, Houser was able to produce a solid strikeout rate and groundball rate because of his four-seam usage high in the zone (where he generated whiffs) mixed with his sinker low in the zone. He threw his four-seam fastball 31.3 percent of the time last year, and the pitch posted an xBA of .187 in 2019. He featured the sinker 36 percent of the time, limiting batters to a .216 xBA.
“Last year he found out where that sinker plays,” Hook said. “I think he understands it now. It’s a strength of his, and he’s going to challenge hitters with that. It plays against even the best hitters in the league. His ability to throw the sinker and the depth of that pitch along with the four-seam plays really well for him. And he knows how to use it.
“There has to be a belief system that this works. And he got to that point last year. Now it’s a matter of sharpening that, commanding that pitch consistently. He’s doing that right now.”
keith law picked him as a breakout player ahead of 2021, predicting a league average starter who can eat innings:
The Brewers have quietly developed a couple of aces or near-aces in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, bringing both guys along in relief roles first and then moving them to the rotation. Houser seemed like he was on that path for 2020, but when play resumed in July, he wasn’t very sharp, losing about a mile an hour off his fastball from 2019, and the Brewers’ porous defense let him down further – he had the 11th-highest BABIP of any pitcher with at least 50 IP last year. A normal offseason and a much better Milwaukee defense should help him become a league-average starter, and he certainly has the build and delivery to soak up some innings in that role.
he's thrown about 350 innings in 3 years since then worth about 4.5 fwar. so probably just a bit worse than league average.
sort of encouraging 2023 was his most productive year so far even though he only threw 111 innings and had a career low GB% and a higher than usual BABIP/HR rate.
out of megill, houser, luchesi, i think houser is easily the most likely to produce.
https://theathletic.com/2455768/2021/03/17/2021-mlb-breakout-candidates-keith-law-picks-seven-players-ready-to-take-a-step-forward/
Beyond the Big 3: Red-hot Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer give the Brewers enticing postseason options - ( New Window )
minor league deal?
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***@mets signing*** the Mets have signed RHP Victor Castaneda formerly a member of @RaysBaseball. Castaneda (25 years old) currently has a 3.95 era over 12 stars in the MXPW this winter. Castaneda was originally signed by... who else? MIL back in 2017 BA #Mets
minor league deal?
Yes.
@ZackScottSports
Good deal for the Mets. Before the '21 season, the Brewers asked me about McNeil for Houser. This is better
@francysromeroFR
The Blue Jays, Pirates, Astros and Yankees are still in the bidding for Cuban RHP free agent Yariel Rodriguez (26), per sources.
@ZackScottSports
Good deal for the Mets. Before the '21 season, the Brewers asked me about McNeil for Houser. This is better
posted that yesterday, what's most interesting about this is that milwaukee was trying to "buy high" on mcneil,
so id imagine that means mil/stearns were pretty decent fans of mcneils. and also correlate to them thinking both he and houser had substantial value. pre-2021 mcneil had been worth 9 fwar in just under 2 full seasons of games (partial call up year 6th in roy voting, full 2019 all star season, short covid year).
also re houser, if you squint, he's not so far off what montgomery was when the yankees traded him for bader before he had his 2 big innings seasons. and bader for montgomery wasnt such a far off trade from the not completed mcneil/houser. no i am not saying "who needs montgomery, they traded for houser!", what i am saying is the value of this return seems real strong for an injured arm they got for half a year of escobar. houser seems to have a solid floor as a useful innings eater and at times has flashed more than that. good depth pickup.
as it should have been, at that point mcneil was one of the top 2b in baseball with position flex and a bunch of years of cheap control. he was a better/cheaper zobrist entering his a29. at that point you couldnt trade him for anything other than a really high end young pitcher. honestly woodruff would have been a fair counter offer (entering his a28, he'd been worth 6.3 fwar in 4 seasons).
at that point houser was probably somewhere in the value neighborhood of a healthy peterson and a few years younger than mcneil. so thats obviously not enough by itself for any all star with years of cheap control.
Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
Source: Former Brewers and Marlins first baseman Jesús Aguilar is signing with the Seibu Lions in Japan.
with bauer especially there was a lot of public negotiating, with boras players there is always some amount of public posturing. yamamoto has taken meetings, done his visits, they've confirmed the teams involved, but have mostly just been pretty low key. especially if martino ends up correct that there is a decision coming in the next few days.
I am starting to warm to logical thinking to some of you like pj and allstarjim's thinking. I really want Yamamoto but am I buying into this Yankees vs Mets fan nonsense or is he really the arm we need? (Both?)
I am coming around to Stearns' vision and first few moves. pjcas credit to you on reminding me on how the Severino trade should be viewed, I think I read a few Yankee comments and reacted.
he was 1 call away from $315m for boras last year, i doubt much has changed.
stearns is clearly playing things a lot more low key and seemingly disciplined, so he is the wild card. how high is his number for yamamoto? what's his plan b? i complimented yamamoto's team for their apparent lack of leaks and i think stearns has operated similarly. if yamamoto passes it wouldnt shock me if the mets reinvest the 300m almost immediately on some combo of yelich, montgomery, giolito, imanaga, or continue with a slower approach targeting players on 1 year deals.
I may be hanging on to the smallest nuggets but the visits to Japan and Yamamoto coming to Steve's home gives me hope.
marte is projected at 1.2 fwar next year, makes 19.5m.
yelich is projected at 2.7 fwar next year, makes $26m (4m deferred)
so an even swap of yelich and marte is effectively 1.5 fwar to save 6.5m the next 2 years, plus the extra $78m on top in the final 3 years
unless milwaukee found some kind of amazing appreciation for crow since the rule 5, yesterdays trade is a pretty big clue re how hard it is to move money right now on the trade market.
Conversation
Brendan Kuty 🧟♂️
@BrendanKutyNJ
The Yankees gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto his own No. 18 jersey when they met w/ him.
"I gave him that jersey," Aaron Boone said. "It's his if he wants to keep it."
Obvious candidates to be removed are Bickford, Garrett, Short, Heineman,SRF, less so but still possible Josh Walker, Cooper Hummel so they have plenty of room to operate if they need to.
I may be hanging on to the smallest nuggets but the visits to Japan and Yamamoto coming to Steve's home gives me hope.
it's possible, last year senga was sort of similar with not a lot leaking out. it may be how wolfe prefers to operate. i would say the fact that very little has come out re lad/nyy/nym offers would indicate that wolfe at least in this situation isnt looking to drive the bidding in public.
Conversation
Brendan Kuty 🧟♂️
@BrendanKutyNJ
The Yankees gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto his own No. 18 jersey when they met w/ him.
"I gave him that jersey," Aaron Boone said. "It's his if he wants to keep it."
Would this be equivalent to 1986 Shea Stadium scoreboard? Come on Roger Clemens, shave your beard!
There are "plenty of big offers" in for Yamamoto, reports SNY's Andy Martino, who notes that the Japanese ace's suitors are still in waiting mode.
Per Martino, there have been no signs of significant progress toward a deal yet.
As far as the "industry perception," Martino says it remains unchanged, with the Yankees and Dodgers in "good shape" and the Mets having a shot.
Speaking at a charity event on Thursday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters that the team utilized Hideki Matsui during its pitch to Yamamoto, but didn't specify how.
In addition to the Yanks, Dodgers, and Mets, the Red Sox, Giants, Phillies, and Blue Jays have all been heavily linked to Yamamoto.
Yamamoto has until Jan. 4 to sign with a new team.
@jaseidler
I don't really know why this is a discussion but Yamamoto would for me pretty clearly be the top overall prospect if we were considering him a prospect for some reason
@TalkinYanks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto asked Aaron Boone about the Yankees' rivalries, per @BryanHoch
Boone told Yamamoto about Yankee Stadium during playoff games and games against the Astros and Red Sox, which "seemed to light him up a bit"
deadlines usually spur action, but if he's still torn/undecided it's also an easy one for him to say "you know what im going to take the weekend and decide after the holidays".
i would hope/think the mets went very aggressive with their offer knowing they had no guarantee of getting another shot. their best card was offering some kind of package that made him the highest paid pitcher ever even if the AAV was below cole.
@jaseidler
I don't really know why this is a discussion but Yamamoto would for me pretty clearly be the top overall prospect if we were considering him a prospect for some reason
in some ways this a big piece of the bidding on him people kind of miss.
like imagine george kirby was a free agent right now. or bobby miller. their markets would be similarly insane beyond snell because of the age/upside.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
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Stevie should show him the VHS "1986 Mets" video and "Once Upon a Time in Queens" and see if that'll light him up. I also hope the agent - who I know shares clients on both the Yankees and Mets can advise Yamamoto on our fan base and how great Queens can be in a playoff run. He could be part of sustained success. Of course Cohen's willingness to build a winner.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
I obviously meant agent not GM lol
Thank you Dan. In all seriousness you are right. Although I believe our roster is actually underrated. At least on the offensive side.
So we need to sell Yamamoto as the leader, and a key piece of the solution rather than joining a team where he is second or third to other players.
He would be our unquestioned ace. Eh I guess I am just trying to be hopeful.
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Stevie should show him the VHS "1986 Mets" video and "Once Upon a Time in Queens" and see if that'll light him up. I also hope the agent - who I know shares clients on both the Yankees and Mets can advise Yamamoto on our fan base and how great Queens can be in a playoff run. He could be part of sustained success. Of course Cohen's willingness to build a winner.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
i think the met pitch would be pretty simple:
you are our guy, we are offering to make you the highest paid P ever, and if someone else is willing to match that we will offer more because cohen is the richest owner in the sport.
david stearns is our gm, we just made him the highest paid gm ever (if not highest, very close, rumor was $50m).
you will play in the biggest market, wont be overshadowed in your own rotation by cole or ohtani, but will join a rotation with someone who just successfully made the same transition.
the yankees are the yankees but they have an older roster. how much can you trust hal to keep spending? or not to fire cashman if they miss the playoffs or early exit again?
lad are a tougher argument if they pay up. if he wants to win that is the choice. i think lad have a lot more to offer than either ny team on the field. but they are also typically pretty disciplined with $.
The Brewers are among the teams facing a loss of revenue because of the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, which held the broadcast rights to 14 teams. Those projected losses have caused many teams to tighten their belts (though the Players Association would argue that the belt tightening is unnecessary).
The Brewers, Mariners and Rays are among the teams openly cutting payroll for next season. Knowing that -- and knowing the players themselves from his time running the Brewers -- Stearns swooped in and made a highly favorable baseball trade.
The Mets and David Stearns flexed their big market muscle this week The Mets swooped in and made a highly favorable baseball trade - ( New Window )
If they end up getting Yamamoto, I wonder if it's all-in again and we're ending up with a $400M payroll pre-Cohen tax.
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In comment 16331117 Drewcon40 said:
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Stevie should show him the VHS "1986 Mets" video and "Once Upon a Time in Queens" and see if that'll light him up. I also hope the agent - who I know shares clients on both the Yankees and Mets can advise Yamamoto on our fan base and how great Queens can be in a playoff run. He could be part of sustained success. Of course Cohen's willingness to build a winner.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
i think the met pitch would be pretty simple:
you are our guy, we are offering to make you the highest paid P ever, and if someone else is willing to match that we will offer more because cohen is the richest owner in the sport.
david stearns is our gm, we just made him the highest paid gm ever (if not highest, very close, rumor was $50m).
you will play in the biggest market, wont be overshadowed in your own rotation by cole or ohtani, but will join a rotation with someone who just successfully made the same transition.
the yankees are the yankees but they have an older roster. how much can you trust hal to keep spending? or not to fire cashman if they miss the playoffs or early exit again?
lad are a tougher argument if they pay up. if he wants to win that is the choice. i think lad have a lot more to offer than either ny team on the field. but they are also typically pretty disciplined with $.
The argument against LAD is how long is their window realistically open and do you want to sign a long-term deal with an aging team? Betts is 31, Freeman is 34, Kershaw is 35, Muncy is 33.
You play up the young players, upcoming talent, and Cohen's capacity to add and vision for the team, that the future long-term success and championship window is more sustainable and longer.
im for whatever gets the offseason moving. hope the mets get him but get busy living or get busy dying. no benefit to it dragging out.
Lindor is 30
Senga 31
Nimmo 31
Alonso 29
McNeil 32
Obviously Alvarez is young but the Mets RIGHT NOW do not have a young core in place.
The argument against LAD is how long is their window realistically open and do you want to sign a long-term deal with an aging team? Betts is 31, Freeman is 34, Kershaw is 35, Muncy is 33.
You play up the young players, upcoming talent, and Cohen's capacity to add and vision for the team, that the future long-term success and championship window is more sustainable and longer.
of the 3 biggest $ teams betts and ohtani are as young as any of the "mvp" level core players. ohtani the only one under contract beyond 1 year under 30. bobby miller the youngest top of rotation sp. just added glasnow. consistently good farm. win 100+ every year. friedman presence secure by the ohtani contract.
relative to the nyy core they are meaningfully younger (not counting soto since he's only under contract 1 year).
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
Can confirm that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are expected to be at the Rams game tonight, for whatever it’s worth
Happy hot stove szn
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
One more detail: They are expected to both be in the owner's suite
torres and soto both in walk years.
ohtani at 29 under contract for a decade, betts under contract at 31 for 9 more years, and obviously a legitimate top rotation arm like miller/glasnow each there through 2030 are core pieces who could all be in-prime for the first half of yamamoto's contract.
under contract yankees have judge same age as betts + cole 2 years older.
dont think volpe and his 208 batting average is a guy who influences a decision like this any more than alvarez or baty (or lux or outman or smith or sheehan, which if weighed would again tip heavily LAD).