- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
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For example, the Mets’ dinner with Yamamoto was believed to have gone well because they were prepared and the Cohens were active, attentive hosts. Yamamoto, his agent Joel Wolfe and five other associates, including Yamamoto’s best friend, attended the dinner with Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, Stearns and the Cohens. When someone needed to know where a bathroom was, it was Alex or Steve who personally guided the person. The Cohens cared about things like who was seated where at the table.
Mainly, the Mets listened to what Yamamoto wanted. They were advised not to present data because Yamamoto isn’t deeply into analytics, so they engaged in a sophisticated philosophical conversation about Yamamoto’s stuff. When Yamamoto stressed winning and his training, the Mets responded with their plan to compete annually for the playoffs with the goal of winning a World Series and touted personalization within their strength and conditioning group.
They were advised not to bring up Kodai Senga unless Yamamoto asked first because even though they both come from Japan, they are two different pitchers. Quickly into the dinner, Yamamoto posed his first question. It was about Senga. The Mets answered thoroughly about Senga’s transition. The Mets heard that Yamamoto was quiet, reserved and that maybe he wouldn’t ask much. With the Mets, he was talkative and asked approximately 10 questions.
The Mets seemingly played their cards well. In theory, their process should aid them in the future. It’s just the Dodgers always held the winning hand.
his poker analogy is apt. no matter what cards you are never guaranteed a win (or loss) on pretty much any hand. to win you have to be in and play the game, and whatever hand you are dealt you play it the best you can. they made an aggressive offer, ill bet they wish it was slightly more aggressive given that they never got a chance to increase it but my guess is LAD was matching whatever it was.
Mets failed to woo Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but their methods could work in the future - ( New Window )
From burbank too.
If the dodgers spend on anyone else that isnt hader idk what they are doing.
Link - ( New Window )
this is another reason why they may want to not let the chance to sign a CY level pitcher if one is there for the taking.
signing any quality pitcher is going to be competitive. giolito, imanaga, next year burnes, bieber, fried all included. LAD arent going anywhere, BOS, SFG, NYY, etc. if you are all in on 1 guy per offseason you are going to have a lot of offseasons signing 0 guys.
the hand they have to play right now with pitching is a bad one since they havent developed any arms since the 5 aces. people may look at the scherzer/jv signings and say "well a bad hand forced bad moves" but id argue those werent bad moves at all. in 2022 they won 100 games and thanks to those guys they added 3 of their top 4 prospects at the deadline.
in fact 5 of their top 7 prospects on that list were added thanks to free agents over the age of 35 signed last offseason or ahead of 2022. imagine what that list looks like if they sat out those free agent classes?
Link - ( New Window )
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
I would expect MLB will do something to rein in the deferred money route, no way should LAD be able to spread the amount out over years Ohtani won’t be playing. If this off season shows us anything, it’s that Cohen isn’t driving the process as much as we thought he was. At least in this instance, he seems to be deferring to Stearn.
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The Tigers have signed RHP Shelby Miller to a one-year, $3 million contract with a $4.25 million club option for 2025 ($250,000 buyout). Performance bonus information below:
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Now I really loathe them.
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
I would expect MLB will do something to rein in the deferred money route, no way should LAD be able to spread the amount out over years Ohtani won’t be playing. If this off season shows us anything, it’s that Cohen isn’t driving the process as much as we thought he was. At least in this instance, he seems to be deferring to Stearn.
Some limit on a percentage of the overall value of the contract you can defer makes a lot of sense. This is a parity issue. You have one of the top 3 richest teams in baseball deferring 97% of a contract, it's terrible for the game. I don't blame the Dodgers, they exploited the situation and it's legal. But it probably shouldn't be.
The question is does capping it after the Dodgers already did this hurt smaller market teams more than it helps them?
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In comment 16331559 allstarjim said:
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Now I really loathe them.
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
I would expect MLB will do something to rein in the deferred money route, no way should LAD be able to spread the amount out over years Ohtani won’t be playing. If this off season shows us anything, it’s that Cohen isn’t driving the process as much as we thought he was. At least in this instance, he seems to be deferring to Stearn.
Some limit on a percentage of the overall value of the contract you can defer makes a lot of sense. This is a parity issue. You have one of the top 3 richest teams in baseball deferring 97% of a contract, it's terrible for the game. I don't blame the Dodgers, they exploited the situation and it's legal. But it probably shouldn't be.
The question is does capping it after the Dodgers already did this hurt smaller market teams more than it helps them?
That’s exactly my take too, Jim. As with Cohen and his spending last year, he was exploiting a lax system. Any deferred money, 100%, should be averaged into the length of the players agreement. The NFL and NBA would never have allowed shenanigans like this.
Can't cry sour grapes now that some else does it.
You should not be able to defer the cash payment and have it effect the AAV of the contract for luxury tax purposes. that is using a loophole to get around a soft cap.
Even if the Mets do it, it shouldn't be allowed. and if any "loophole" gets closed it will be that one.
it's like when brady took less in NE, yes it's a major advantage but if players are willing to take less $ because they want to win what can you do?
if alonso said he'd resign for league minimum x 10 years tomorrow would anyone stand in the way of that?
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Lol. Ftd helps banks work
No piece makes more sense and their qo penalty is less significant since they were under tax and already signed ohtani. No info and hopefully they don’t get him but it fits too good. Not even sure it’s worth getting info on them any more it’s usually just bad news.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
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market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
That's a good way of explaining it.
$2m salary out per year year = $12m
$10-20m in additional off field revenue per year = $60-120m
(+48-112m cash)
this year alone yamamoto is going to cost LAD somewhere around $120m cash (50m SB + 50m posting fee + salary).
I think through 6 years he will have cost more than $220m cash, plus whatever luxury tax they incur on top, and if it goes well he's almost certain to opt out at that 6th year and sign an even bigger deal.
ohtani allowing the LAD to recoup up to half of that cash was the key assist. especially compared to the $46m x 6 a typical contract would have cost them (which would have been another -150m cash out after netting out his extra off field revenue).
smart payroll planning by LAD before this offseason and ohtani putting his $ where his mouth is made this a very unique gamble. those $68m cash payments after ohtani's gone could be crippling depending on the state of the team/ownership, but it's a decade away. somewhere the wilponzis are smiling.
I would argue the latter, and would hope that the MLB owners step in to promote some rule changes that limit the percentage amount of a contract that can be deferred, perhaps with some cap on # of years this can be allowed.
Again, I don't think this is an issue of sour grapes. I've stated that I don't blame the Dodgers for exploiting this situation to maximum effect. But given the historic nature of this deal, and the competitive balance implications it has when one of the richest teams in baseball can do this to this magnitude, does this provide an impetus for baseball to put some limits on this kind of fiscal imbalance?
This argument would seemingly be at the detriment to an owner like Cohen, but is probably better for the game overall to do something.
It's a loan. It's debt on their balance sheet.
Literally nothing to see here, nothing to be upset about, nothing to ban or regulate.
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market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
My issue is not with deferred compensation. It is with deferred compensation being used to lower the CBT payroll of the player.
Ohtani contract is 10 year 700M. Meaning he is contracted to play for the Dodgers the next 10 years and he will be paid 700M. People saying it's not really a 10 year 700M contract are being disingenuous or have an agenda. Sure, that may not be how he gets the $700M paid (over 10 years) but he is being paid $700M (guaranteed) for 10 years of playing time and it is absolutely how his contract is recorded. His CBT payroll figure for them should be 70M. Not the present value number of $46M.
The Mets did this with Diaz and teams do it all the time, and to me lowering the CBT payroll amount to the present value doesn't "penalize" the team enough for offering such a large contract.
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In comment 16332024 pjcas18 said:
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market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
It doesn't matter what they report. Reporters don't understand finance.
The "deferral" is not free.
Would the deferred money on Ohtani be taxed later on? Obviously Bonilla and I also think Saberhagen still gets deferred money but the Mets aren’t taxed (unless that was considered grandfathered in).
against the CBT the contract counts $46m per year over 10 years -- which is almost exactly what Ohtani was proejcted to be worth. so this is not cap circumvention or a loophole.
it is simply good fortune for the team that a great player was willing to wait 10 years to collect 97% of his contract, allowing the team to spend more aggressively in those years. ohtani put his money where his mouth is and did something very few (if any others) would do.
Would the deferred money on Ohtani be taxed later on? Obviously Bonilla and I also think Saberhagen still gets deferred money but the Mets aren’t taxed (unless that was considered grandfathered in).
the mlb system estimates the present day value of the deferrals and just adjusts the "cap hits" evenly over the life of the deal based on that.
using the diaz example:
he got 5 years 102m, with 1x12m signing bonus, 5x17m annual salaries, and 26.5m deferred until 2033-2042.
that turned a 5 year 102 (20.4m average)
into a 5 year 18.6m average for his CBT salaries.
so the mets saved themselves 2m a year that doesnt get taxed. last year alone that saved them like 2.2m in penalties they would have had to pay.
that is how most normal deferals go. scherzer did it with the nats, lindor has 50m deferred, etc. usually it is some chunk of money way less than half. 10-20-30% deferred, slightly lower cash burden on team in present day.
97% of the money deferred for 10 years is the choice ohtani made that was never done before. even if you value the contract at $460m the way the CBT does, deferring $440m of it would have been 95.65%.
he basically said give me the biggest deal in mlb history and you dont need to pay me until next decade so you can spend more on the team while im here.
or using moze's analogy which is a good one, you can live in the most expensive house in the world for 10 years before you start paying for it.
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In comment 16332065 moze1021 said:
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In comment 16332024 pjcas18 said:
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market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
It doesn't matter what they report. Reporters don't understand finance.
The "deferral" is not free.
Sorry if I'm being obtuse and the last thing on this but if they're paying Ohtani without interest it was a free deferral no? It's not to say about time value of money and if Dodgers themselves will put away and make interest but Ohtani won't be getting it.
Great point
Anyone got the deets on the Wendle contract so we can analyze it?
Just effin with ya. Perhaps you don't remember the old threads, where discussing finance is boring in comparison lol
Cohen has shown he is willing to invest so any comparable to the Wilpon-owned Mets were false. We need to build up the Mets as a brand and destination where free agents want to come and can win. I think we are in good hands with Stearns.
I wanted Yamamoto as much as anyone but he's a Dodger. Maybe I am going through a denial state but I do think Cohen and Stearns will build a sustainable winner. Were we as good as the 101 win team or as bad as the 75 win team? With the rebuilding of the farm with the trades last year and our existing roster, I do think we are better than what most of experts are predicting. I understand a division title might be a bit unrealistic but things need to playout. I think now we need to work on depth, especially with the pitchers. I think that is fairly obvious. I am excited to see what Stearns can do with this roster. I wasn't initially.
I have a question for you guys. I always preface this so apologies for the redundancy but I suffered a loss during the season and checked out of sports for a bit so I wasn't as informed on the day to day. Ronny Mauricio was a tough break as he was a candidate for Third Base. I know Vientos and Baty are not ideal but are we giving up on them? I can look up the numbers and see the poor averages but what are the thoughts of these guys? Especially Baty who was at once an exciting prospect.
Thanks guys as always for the great discussion and indulging me.
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In comment 16332161 GF1080 said:
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In comment 16332065 moze1021 said:
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In comment 16332024 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
It doesn't matter what they report. Reporters don't understand finance.
The "deferral" is not free.
Sorry if I'm being obtuse and the last thing on this but if they're paying Ohtani without interest it was a free deferral no? It's not to say about time value of money and if Dodgers themselves will put away and make interest but Ohtani won't be getting it.
It's not without interest...the 700M is with interest (whether spelled out as such or not)
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Mets hit with record $101M luxury tax - ( New Window )
Cohen has shown he is willing to invest so any comparable to the Wilpon-owned Mets were false. We need to build up the Mets as a brand and destination where free agents want to come and can win. I think we are in good hands with Stearns.
I wanted Yamamoto as much as anyone but he's a Dodger. Maybe I am going through a denial state but I do think Cohen and Stearns will build a sustainable winner. Were we as good as the 101 win team or as bad as the 75 win team? With the rebuilding of the farm with the trades last year and our existing roster, I do think we are better than what most of experts are predicting. I understand a division title might be a bit unrealistic but things need to playout. I think now we need to work on depth, especially with the pitchers. I think that is fairly obvious. I am excited to see what Stearns can do with this roster. I wasn't initially.
I have a question for you guys. I always preface this so apologies for the redundancy but I suffered a loss during the season and checked out of sports for a bit so I wasn't as informed on the day to day. Ronny Mauricio was a tough break as he was a candidate for Third Base. I know Vientos and Baty are not ideal but are we giving up on them? I can look up the numbers and see the poor averages but what are the thoughts of these guys? Especially Baty who was at once an exciting prospect.
Thanks guys as always for the great discussion and indulging me.
Definitely not giving up on either player, but Baty is closer to that point. He has good contact rate, they simply have to work on his launch angle, which is really low...his launch angle last year was 6.6 degrees, while the average major leaguer was 12.2. As you might expect, he's hitting far too many ground balls. He actually has good contact and hard hit percentages, he's just hitting it into the ground a lot.
Vientos I have a lot more optimism for. He was abysmal during his first stint before heading back to AAA, remember he was playing sparingly. In August Showalter started playing him more regularly, and in September he was basically in the lineup every day. While results weren't amazing, he started to hit with the increased playing time, 6 of his 9 homers came in September. His overall hitting still needs some work, even in his best month of September a .230/.280 BA/OBP leaves a lot to be desired. But even still, with those numbers weighing him down, he still managed a .739 OPS for September.
His hard hit % and average exit velo numbers are elite. Plate discipline and pitch selection I think is what it's all about for MV, he has to work on very below average walk and K-rates. But based on his superlative success at AAA in multiple stints, I think he has it in him. If he can parlay his September and gain some confidence from that, while cutting down on his K numbers and increasing his contact rate, we'll see an offensive powerhouse.
Very possible with Vientos. It's just disappointing that Buck didn't play him and allow him to develop in May and June like he should've, he could be farther along at this point.
As for Mauricio, we'll just have to be a little patient with him, the good news is he should be back at some point (mid-season maybe, perhaps even mid to end of May?) And he's a lot of fun to watch with the bat in his hand, but the biggest disappointment with his injury is the lost time for him to work on his defense, because he is a negative player in that area.
Really hoping to see Alvarez turn it around from a disappointing late season swoon.
But as we're talking prospects, the thing I'm most excited about for 2024 are the new potential promotions... especially that of Luisangel Acuña and Drew Gilbert.
Acuña should start the year at AAA after a very successful campaign in AA last year, posting a .294/.359/.769 season with 57 SBs against 10 CS.
A big first 3 months in AAA could see him promoted in late June or July, but I may be optimistic.
Drew Gilbert dominated after being traded to the Mets in the Verlander deal. .325/.423/.984 in 154 PAs in Bing. I believe he will also start the year in AAA, so same rules apply...but perhaps he will be a touch slower to the majors than Acuña.
And I don't expect to see Jett Williams in the majors in 2024, but I'll be watching him closely. He was promoted to Bing late in the year but only has 26 PAs at the level. But across 3 levels last year, 45 steals against 7 caught, with a .263/.425/.876 line.
Christian Scott and Mike Vasil are the pitchers to keep an eye on that could be getting close. Hopefully we have 2 good future starters there because we need them.
37 games .243/.317/.304. 5 total extra base hits. Might see him second half if he plays well.
That's more than what nearly a third of the league has in total payroll.